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#803729 - 10/12/2009 07:50 Re: Temperature trends [Re: Simmosturf]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
Interesting to note that land temperatures have continued to climb this decade:


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#803732 - 10/12/2009 08:16 Re: Temperature trends [Re: mammatus mistress]
bd bucketingdown Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2008
Posts: 6050
Loc: Eastern A/Hills SA
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/12/09/pi...-it/#more-13925
A 6th grader and Dad show the vast warming impact of urbanistation of temp readings. Rural records show no trend at all in 100 years
in this study...which puts learned scientists to shame!

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#803736 - 10/12/2009 08:46 Re: Temperature trends [Re: bd bucketingdown]
Keith Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/12/2001
Posts: 6453
Loc: Kings Langley, NSW
I like the comment in one of the responses to that video saying that the scientists at Copenhagen should be made to watch it (but turn down the background music!).

Instead of that stupid Hollywood climate disaster movie.

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#803741 - 10/12/2009 09:02 Re: Temperature trends [Re: bd bucketingdown]
BOM99 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/08/2004
Posts: 4645
Loc: Australia
Originally Posted By: Bucketing Down(BD)
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/12/09/pi...-it/#more-13925
A 6th grader and Dad show the vast warming impact of urbanistation of temp readings. Rural records show no trend at all in 100 years
in this study...which puts learned scientists to shame!


I am sorry to say this is not the case in Australia, on the contrary rural areas are warming more than urban ones here. The main reason is that most large urban areas in Australia are on the coast where the warming trend has been less than in continental areas. The warming trend over the last hundred years is far greater in Bathurst than Sydney, which is the big urban area?.

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#803745 - 10/12/2009 09:17 Re: Temperature trends [Re: Keith]
Keith Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/12/2001
Posts: 6453
Loc: Kings Langley, NSW
It would be great to do a similar analysis for Australia (or parts/States etc). But there are a lot of missing data (despite the fact that the data period gives the impression of continuity, until you look at the plots), so it would be a very tedious exercise to extract only the relatively continuous data.

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#803746 - 10/12/2009 09:28 Re: Temperature trends [Re: bd bucketingdown]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Bucketing Down(BD)
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/12/09/pi...-it/#more-13925
A 6th grader and Dad show the vast warming impact of urbanistation of temp readings. Rural records show no trend at all in 100 years
in this study...which puts learned scientists to shame!


A 6th grader said there is no warming trend in rural records? And trained climate scientists say there is.

I wonder who I should believe? I'll think about it and get back to you....

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#803788 - 10/12/2009 12:42 Re: Temperature trends [Re: Mike Hauber]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4553
Loc: Brisbane
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Originally Posted By: Bucketing Down(BD)
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/12/09/pi...-it/#more-13925
A 6th grader and Dad show the vast warming impact of urbanistation of temp readings. Rural records show no trend at all in 100 years
in this study...which puts learned scientists to shame!


A 6th grader said there is no warming trend in rural records? And trained climate scientists say there is.

I wonder who I should believe? I'll think about it and get back to you....


Thats all ok if you can actually trust the "trained climate scientist".

Unfortunately when it appears that what the scientist has been trained to do is manipulate the data fit only a particular outcome then I'm afraid I'm likely to place as much trust in the boy and his father.
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#803793 - 10/12/2009 12:56 Re: Temperature trends [Re: Locke]
Keith Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/12/2001
Posts: 6453
Loc: Kings Langley, NSW
Mike, it would seem that Peter's work in the video is at least entitled to stand on its own merits. Instead of dismissing it out of hand simply because it wasn't done by a trained scientist, you'd be being fairer to show us why , as it seems, you think the analysis is flawed/wrong or whatever. After all, that's what you are always exhorting the rest of us here to do.

And what would you say if I were to go through and do a similar analysis and post a result? Would it be worth my while? Doesn't look like it!

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#803800 - 10/12/2009 13:06 Re: Temperature trends [Re: Keith]
mammatus mistress Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/06/2007
Posts: 87
Loc: Lennox Head, NSW
Why has there been no talk here about this recent decade being the warmest ever?

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#803803 - 10/12/2009 13:10 Re: Temperature trends [Re: mammatus mistress]
petethemoskeet Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/08/2003
Posts: 1392
Loc: toowoomba
Because the report was commissioned using the flawed data from HADCRU.

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#803806 - 10/12/2009 13:13 Re: Temperature trends [Re: petethemoskeet]
mammatus mistress Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/06/2007
Posts: 87
Loc: Lennox Head, NSW
The secretary-general of the WMO, Michel Jarraud, also observed that Australia has so far had its third warmest year on record.

"There were above-normal temperatures in most parts of the continents, and only in USA and Canada there were significant areas with cooler-than-average conditions," he said.

"But in large parts of Southern Asia, Central Africa, these regions are likely to have the warmest year on record."

Mr Jarraud says the year has also been notable for extreme weather events.

"China with the third warmest year in the last 50 years, heat waves in Italy, UK, France, Belgium, Germany, an extreme heat wave in India, and Australia the third warmest year on record with three exceptional heat waves," he said.

Those heatwaves hit south-eastern Australia in January, February and November and the sub-tropical east in August.

A climatologist at the Bureau of Meteorology's National Climate Centre, Blair Trewin, is not surprised that the WMO has highlighted those events and the deadly February bushfires.

"It's not often you see long-term stations ... break monthly temperature records by two, three, four degrees, and to have it happen three times in the same year in the same continent is pretty significant," he said.


So this means nothing to you ?

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#803813 - 10/12/2009 13:54 Re: Temperature trends [Re: mammatus mistress]
BOM99 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/08/2004
Posts: 4645
Loc: Australia
I have been trying to talk about it on the last page. I do not know why some people think its flawed data when you can easily reconstruct the exact same trends from the raw data yourself. (As for my location this was easily the hottest year ever.)

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#803821 - 10/12/2009 14:16 Re: Temperature trends [Re: BOM99]
petethemoskeet Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/08/2003
Posts: 1392
Loc: toowoomba
You can't cherry pick certain events and data and put them all into one basket and then come up with a conclusion that suits your agenda.And if you read the report it says they did use the flawed data

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#803825 - 10/12/2009 14:22 Re: Temperature trends [Re: BOM99]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4553
Loc: Brisbane
I've just gone through dozens of rural stations in Australia via GISS data and for as many stations as show warming there seem to be just as many that show no warming or even cooling.

Given the variability in result between stations that are separated by relatively small geographical distances and given the differences in measurement periods I fail to see how any one can get a reliable overall picture which isn't open to distortion and manipulation.

For example, if you have only measurements taken from 1962 at a station you may well see the impact of the most recent warm PDO phase. This record will show warming if it is influenced by the PDO where as if the data went back to 1940 it would not.

If you use all stations can you guarantee they are positioned in a way that won't have bias. On the other hand if you then cherry pick stations how can you confirm no bias on the part of the person picking the stations.

This gives me absolutely no confidence at all in any analysis coming from this data that purports to show either a global or even Australian trend.

Heck, from your responses Snowmi I was expecting to look at these stations and have a hard time finding stations that do not show warming. This is far from the case!!
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#803826 - 10/12/2009 14:22 Re: Temperature trends [Re: petethemoskeet]
mammatus mistress Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/06/2007
Posts: 87
Loc: Lennox Head, NSW
So do you refute the conclusion?

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#803829 - 10/12/2009 14:35 Re: Temperature trends [Re: mammatus mistress]
petethemoskeet Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/08/2003
Posts: 1392
Loc: toowoomba
In one word Yes

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#803830 - 10/12/2009 14:38 Re: Temperature trends [Re: mammatus mistress]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4553
Loc: Brisbane
I have a very low degree of confidence in the conclusion given what I've seen of the raw data.
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#803886 - 10/12/2009 17:18 Re: Temperature trends [Re: Locke]
Keith Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/12/2001
Posts: 6453
Loc: Kings Langley, NSW
These are some plots of data I selected from the GISS site.

As this is a thread related to trends I'm not going to put a view on man-made warming (though I acknowledge that to some people more than others it's an issue), but rather I simply want to show the existence of climate change (temperatures) in the original sense of the term.

The first chart shows the average annual temperature at Walgett, in the NSW northwest (red line). Years in which there were missing data have been omitted, so the year scale has adjusted itself. It also shows cycles in these data (blue line) based on spectral analysis:



The next chart shows a spectral analysis of the same data, with strong peaks at around 6 and 20 year intervals.



The linear regression trendline for the average series (not shown) gives a trend of +0.0009 per annum, or 0.09 per hundred years. Although I don't agree with the use of linear trend lines where the data are clearly cyclical, this at least demonstrates a trend in simpler terms.

Notice from the first chart:

1.The regular recurrence of small amplitude cycles every few years
2.The regular recurrence of a low point/cycle at less frequent intervals
3.The occurrence of a third high point/cycle at even longer intervals (around 40 years or so).

As the spectral analysis indicated 2 main significant cycles, it doesn't show this third cycle. However the other two (in the first chart) seem to me to represent the two peaks shown in the second chart. The 6-year cycle crops up 5 times between the 40 year ones.

In terms of what the town might expect in the future, it seems that as a high peak (the third cycle referred to above) has just passed, there should be a resumption of the 6-year cycle repeating itself well into this century, with another very high peak around say 2030 to 2040.

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#804043 - 11/12/2009 07:10 Re: Temperature trends [Re: Keith]
bd bucketingdown Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2008
Posts: 6050
Loc: Eastern A/Hills SA
After viewing many Australian sites on the GISS records (and not knowing what is adjusted or not) I cannot see how anyone in a sane mind can make any sense out of it at all!.......
The records are in the main disjointed with gaps and short periods shown, the trends are different for adjoining stations, about 1/3rd of the sites go up, 1/3rd go down and 1/3 show random ups and downs with no clear trend at all.
In the very main the only sites showing any real significant trends up are the large city urban warming BOM sites, and some of their nearby BOM airport stations do not show this upward trend at all(even though their are tarmac heat issues there as well).......
Leaving one to believe strongly in urban warming distortions, And I note also that these sites are the only ones that have been updated to 2009.
IMO the surface record should be scrapped after viewing this mess, how anyone can make adjustments and fill in gaps and fit that all together and say anything meaningful at all about long term temperature trends is beyond me! "An unbelievable mess!"(Paraphrased.......As the leaked email scandal programmer stated in his notes on Australian stations!)

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#804050 - 11/12/2009 07:56 Re: Temperature trends [Re: bd bucketingdown]
Keith Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/12/2001
Posts: 6453
Loc: Kings Langley, NSW
If one looks at the plots for Sydney, whereas the original raw data show a warming trend from 1950, the adjusted series (for inhomogeneities) show, over the duration of the series, no increase at all,though rises occur over shorter terms.

Which series should be used for analysis? Each would give completely different outcomes.

How confident should we be of the adjusted data (other than that the methods used were contrived by scientists)?

I think I'd prefer to operate with data not fiddled with by anybody.

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