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#814008 - 08/01/2010 10:26 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Unstable]
*Michael Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 07/01/2010
Posts: 2
Originally Posted By: Unstable
....
Michael the only computer model that reaches out that far suggests a fine and very hot day around a 100 degrees with a south east to easterly wind smile Very unreliable forecast that far out though.


I'm hoping that Fahrenheit ...

What date would a more accurate forecast be available ?

Cheers

Michael B

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#814019 - 08/01/2010 11:20 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: *Michael]
_Chris_ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 18/03/2009
Posts: 1143
Loc: Marleston
I would completely ignore anything beyond the seven day forecast, and then really only make set plans based on the forecast that's put out under 96 hours from the event.

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#814025 - 08/01/2010 11:48 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: _Chris_]
rstewart84 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/01/2007
Posts: 2071
Loc: Kalangadoo,South Australia
Even though im one of those who loves summer to be completely honest im not liking the forecast for Sunday and Monday for Kalangadoo cause were closer to Coonawarra and the temps there for both days is forecasted to reach 41 and 42 meaning it will be catastrophic (code red) on both days

Of course the temperatures do have a tendency to change in a 24-48 hour period but still it is a worrying sign

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#814039 - 08/01/2010 13:00 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: rstewart84]
Unstable Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/01/2007
Posts: 3585
Loc: Adelaide
Yes F fortunately although with global warming if it happens to go runaway before then it could be C.
Yes I basically agree with Chris but we may be able to give a better forecast seven days out - depends how stable and reliable the pattern looks for forecasting.

The southern boundary of the cirrus has moved a long way north since yesterday but I can see a few small cumulus developing over the northern Flinders and signs of moisture coming into the north-west corner of SA judging by the clouds there (it looks like that to me anyway).

_________________________
Website http://sasnows.com
Email: weather at internode.on.net

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#814042 - 08/01/2010 13:23 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Unstable]
Weathergod Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/05/2007
Posts: 1675
Loc: Williamstown SA.
Wow @ at that pic Helen. Simply beautiful. i wonder if that rock face is available for rock climbing, if so, you can count me out.. I have a bad fear of heights.. lol.


lol well Michael 100FH is around 38 Celsius so still very hot, but the next few days temps will be alot hotter so if the tour down under has temps like this, It will be a challenge for the riders to finish the stage! Boy I feel sorry for them if that happens..
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#814061 - 08/01/2010 15:52 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Weathergod]
Weather Nugget Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/06/2002
Posts: 735
Loc: Southern suburbs, Adelaide
Quote:
Even though im one of those who loves summer to be completely honest im not liking the forecast for Sunday and Monday for Kalangadoo cause were closer to Coonawarra and the temps there for both days is forecasted to reach 41 and 42 meaning it will be catastrophic (code red) on both days


Not necessarily a Catastrophic day just because of the heat Robert.

Yeah it might crack 40c, but the winds don't look too bad, and the wind strength has a greater effect on the FDI than the temperature does.

A 30c day with 100% cured fuel, with 15% R.H. and a 40kmh wind will produce an FDI of 137 = Catastrophic.

Have a look here if you want to play around with the numbers http://www.firebreak.com.au/grassmk5.html
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#814109 - 08/01/2010 18:50 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Weather Nugget]
Unstable Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/01/2007
Posts: 3585
Loc: Adelaide
Reached 41 in Adelaide today I see, and BOM predicting 41, 43, and 43 for next three days, and a min of 30 on Monday. Let's hope the gradient doesn't really tighten up on Monday.
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#814115 - 08/01/2010 18:59 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Unstable]
rstewart84 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/01/2007
Posts: 2071
Loc: Kalangadoo,South Australia
Its going to be 40 on sunday and 41 on monday in Mount Gambier even though things will be cooling down tuesday-thursday next weekend will heat up again

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#814142 - 08/01/2010 20:36 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: rstewart84]
_Chris_ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 18/03/2009
Posts: 1143
Loc: Marleston
Thank you for that link Weather Nugget. Fascinating!

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#814152 - 08/01/2010 20:59 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: _Chris_]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14848
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Good to see the revised temps to 43C! Much more like it, 41C seemed a little low given the complete lack of potential cool air intrusions. Infact watch those N burbs, 44-45C could be under threat.

TS cool

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#814157 - 08/01/2010 21:12 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Astro_man Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/09/2005
Posts: 577
Loc: Paralowie, South Australia
Well there goes finishing off my front garden, Kathryn will be most ****** off about that.... Time to spend most of the WE in the pool I think.

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#814167 - 08/01/2010 21:29 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Astro_man]
Helen Offline
Moderator

Registered: 07/11/2001
Posts: 9642
Loc: Mid North, SA
Got to 42.8ºC here today... same or hotter tomorrow... soul destroying stuff. frown
_________________________
2017 YTD - 67.8mm Yearly Average - 403mm
Jan - 32.8mm (10mm) / Feb - 35.0mm (10mm) / Mar - - (15mm) / Apr - - (31mm)
May - - (46mm) / June - - (51mm) / July - - (59mm) / Aug - - (54mm)
Sept - - (48mm) / Oct - - (38mm) / Nov - - (23mm) / Dec - - (18mm)
Total 2016 - 637.2mm



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#814190 - 08/01/2010 22:06 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Helen]
---- Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/11/2002
Posts: 5786
Originally Posted By: Helen
soul destroying stuff. frown

It destroys more than the soul. frown

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#814194 - 08/01/2010 22:09 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Helen]
_Chris_ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 18/03/2009
Posts: 1143
Loc: Marleston
Don't forget though, if the heat gets too much for us we can always head on down to the Adelaide bus depot, where after walking for half an hour because of a lack of reasonable parking, through agonizing heat, only enhanced through the urban heat island, you can snuggle up to a couple dozen complete strangers and let your troubles drift away.

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#814214 - 08/01/2010 22:45 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: _Chris_]
Astro_man Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/09/2005
Posts: 577
Loc: Paralowie, South Australia
Was so glad to have dipped my toes in the pool after the kids went to bed and relax and cool myself down a bit.... Got to get up early tomorrow and try and finish the last 8 holes for my hedge, and finish installing the irrigation system.... I think I might have to start at 2am....

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#814215 - 08/01/2010 22:45 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: _Chris_]
Weather Nugget Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/06/2002
Posts: 735
Loc: Southern suburbs, Adelaide
Ha ha Chris, it is a scary place at the moment. There is certainly some people taking up that offer.

Not to mention a bus load of people that came in from Pt Lincoln, apparently the Air Con on the Coach croaked it somewhere out of Cowell. It didnt help that the driver forgot a passenger at Port Wakefield and had to go back to retrieve him, lets just say the passengers were not impressed when they arrived tonight.
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#814217 - 08/01/2010 22:54 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Weather Nugget]
---- Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/11/2002
Posts: 5786
You could always come up here where we switched off the air con. Not needed anymore tonight.
muahahaha
sorry.
I hate summer

Bus depots are not good pick up places Chrisso. ::shock horror!!:: LOL

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#814221 - 08/01/2010 23:08 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: ----]
Helen Offline
Moderator

Registered: 07/11/2001
Posts: 9642
Loc: Mid North, SA
Still have 3 air conditioners going here at the moment, not so much because of the heat (though it's still 28ºC outside, but more because of the bugs... out there by the billions... though in fairness they're probably coming in for the water being spat out by the sprinkler. wink Think I'd completely expire if it weren't for those airy beasts churning out Arctic ice air. grin
_________________________
2017 YTD - 67.8mm Yearly Average - 403mm
Jan - 32.8mm (10mm) / Feb - 35.0mm (10mm) / Mar - - (15mm) / Apr - - (31mm)
May - - (46mm) / June - - (51mm) / July - - (59mm) / Aug - - (54mm)
Sept - - (48mm) / Oct - - (38mm) / Nov - - (23mm) / Dec - - (18mm)
Total 2016 - 637.2mm



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#814230 - 08/01/2010 23:39 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Helen]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2635
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
Well i arrived in Port Augusta for the next 2 days this afternoon and it was about 42c upon my arrival which was just a tad warm. Tho i see the BoM are only going for 42c here tomorrow, so not as hot as i expected. I thought we might see a 44/45c but i guess not.

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#814237 - 09/01/2010 00:06 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: CoastalStorm22]
_Chris_ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 18/03/2009
Posts: 1143
Loc: Marleston
Haha, I remember catching the bus at the old depot a couple of years back, and one of the ladies at the old canteen was the cliché American high school cafeteria lunch lady.... and you say the bus station ISN'T a good place to pic up Tim? On a serious note though, and yes, that is a rareaty for me during times of extreme heat, I couldn't imagine anything worse than 500km in an un-air conditioned coach. It would be like climbing into a lit cigar!

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