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#815122 - 12/01/2010 11:49 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: schmick325]
sixties Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/12/2009
Posts: 125
Loc: Cabooltrue North
tell me about it especially in the caboolture reagion.
even when we were getting storms in the beginning of the season theyed build up and it would look like we'd be hit and than at the last minute they would just skirt around us or fizzle out before it would get to us

but in saying that this has always been the case in the caboolture reagion. it must be something local a mountain in the way or maybe something to do with the river?

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#815284 - 12/01/2010 21:38 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: sixties]
Dan607 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/05/2009
Posts: 746
Loc: Sunshine Coast, Qld
I've got my eye on this weekend, could be interesting, everyone cross everything!

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#815310 - 12/01/2010 23:11 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: Dan607]
cbddqld Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/05/2008
Posts: 68
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx hows that?

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#815313 - 12/01/2010 23:14 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: Dan607]
Tejay Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/08/2009
Posts: 584
Loc: SE QLD
Wind shear is forecasted to be absolutely useless though, in some soundings the 550 speed is zero. Guess I will have to borrow the grandparents fan.

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#815353 - 13/01/2010 07:07 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: Tejay]
Dan607 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/05/2009
Posts: 746
Loc: Sunshine Coast, Qld
Sure is lacking, the 12z run has most of the inability off the coast now. Anything that forms behind me probably wont make it off the range, ever does with low shear.

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#815355 - 13/01/2010 07:46 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: Dan607]
Macca-wx Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/02/2001
Posts: 1974
Loc: Wavell Heights, QLD
Try looking at other models other than GFS then. EC and GASP have a very nice upper trough with very nice shear for Sunday (and EC has it hanging around for a few days even)!. BoM being cautious with their forecasts due to the model variances with a hedged forecast of "mostly fine" and a brief mention of an upper trough in the State Forecast.

Macca

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#815391 - 13/01/2010 11:50 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: Macca-wx]
Dave-Wx Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/08/2001
Posts: 4950
Loc: Heritage Park, Brisbane, QLD
Shear actually returned on 12z GFS...anyway models are still differing in their opinions as Macca said so no need to get too emo yet, just wait and see what happens as any 'event' that happens might not necessarily be over your area! NOGAPS had the trough/dryline sitting over us for 2-3 days last night, now it has it all swinging through a bit quicker...EC was the one that picked up on it first and has shown a whole host of scenarios...I find the suspense kinda exciting really grin

As it stands here's a sounding for Monday, not toooo far away from Brisbane:



Might be time for a thread soon too smile

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#815404 - 13/01/2010 13:00 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: Dave-Wx]
Dave-Wx Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/08/2001
Posts: 4950
Loc: Heritage Park, Brisbane, QLD
I think that upper trough the BoM are mentioning in the state forecast for the next few days is the one just beginning to push across Birdsville/Thargo today tomorrow...which is separate from the big one that will push up through Victoria on the weekend. Though in the just updated state forecast they have now mentioned 'a trough from the west will move through the SE with showers and thunderstorms' which is fair enough at this point.

However, what isn't good enough right now is the vintage Bureau Brisbane Xmas 2009/Jan 2010 'mostly fine' forecast. They have today and tomorrow as fine, and the 5 days following that mostly fine. They most certainly don't have to go all out and forecast death and destruction at this point, however we're now at the point where it is very likely there is going to be some sort of weather from around Sat/Sun until Tuesday. A 'chance shower/storm' on the day(s) they honestly think has the highest potential would be rather prudent at this point!

Anyway going off what they did around Christmas time, they will keep each day as 'mostly fine' and change it to 'showers' 'storms' or whatever is required the night before.

/end rant

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#815411 - 13/01/2010 13:27 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: Dave-Wx]
Dave-Wx Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/08/2001
Posts: 4950
Loc: Heritage Park, Brisbane, QLD
One thing I forgot to mention was the temps forecast as well...after cracking the low 30's today (and maybe tomorrow), it should cool down a tad (28-30C likely) the next couple of days, before warming up again over the weekend as the trough approaches. Instead they have virtually the same temps every day for the coming 6 days.

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#815413 - 13/01/2010 13:33 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: Dave-Wx]
Kev in Bello Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5039
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Thanks Dave

Agree looking interesting for some storms smile Also agree with the BoM comments too - nicely put.

My hunch at this stage is that the dry line is going to be a real key here...With some happy and others pretty dissapointed. That line could be pretty close to the coast...Kinda handy for chasers living along the coast but touch and go as to where that line sits...Fingers crossed we do't end up watching some excellent falls just offshore as could be the case? EC has an E Coast tropical disturbance moving down and getting sucked into the trough so could be ample moisture if you are on the right side of the line...But as you also say it is all chopping and changing so let's watch closer to the time smile

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#815414 - 13/01/2010 13:43 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: Kev in Bello]
DARK&STORMY Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/05/2007
Posts: 1613
Loc: Kilkivan, Wide Bay Burnett, QL...
It is starting to look pretty good, but a cyclone is expected to develop near NW WA over the weekend, would the high cloud from this be caught in the jet stream as did from the last cyclone over there sending it over our way clouding us in for days which would stuff up the storm potential, sorry to put gloom on things but this could be possible.

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#815422 - 13/01/2010 14:42 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: Macca-wx]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6440
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Macca-wx
Try looking at other models other than GFS then. EC and GASP have a very nice upper trough with very nice shear for Sunday (and EC has it hanging around for a few days even)!.


I was tempted to post something similar last night.

If you take a closer look at the broader picture, GFS hasn't really had a good grip with the positioning of the upper trough or cut-off low (whichever one it will turn out to be). So while one run may indicate crap shear, the next may be completely the opposite..here is what I mean, and we'll go with 500mb, Monday arvo:

Here is Tuesday morning's 12Z run: Click
Here is the 00Z run from yesterday: Click
The next is a 06Z run, because I have a feeling a couple of people are still using them far too seriously: Click
Lastly the 12Z run from this morning: Click

So lets be honest...it's changing every run! I think we're better off waiting till we're at least one or two days out, and see if we have some consistency from run to run (and not forget the other models which WZ have kindly provided for us :p). Personally I believe there WILL most definitely be something around on either Sunday or Monday (hope I havn't jinxed it).

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#815792 - 14/01/2010 18:46 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: Mega]
Dan607 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/05/2009
Posts: 746
Loc: Sunshine Coast, Qld
That fire that had been burning the last two days looked very interesting this morning, shame I didn't take my camera with me because the pyro cu above it was like popcorn! I wasn't sure if it was my eyes or not but checked the radar when I got home and sure enough, a stationary echo right over the fire.
You can see it here - http://radar.strikeone.net.au/?fuseactio...=0&dateFinish=0 from frame 21-33, just above Bribie.

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#815839 - 14/01/2010 22:59 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: Dan607]
Farmer Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/06/2004
Posts: 556
Not sure if this is the place to post this but we are getting hammered by a massive storm.
An absolute amazing light and sound show, just sitting out on the verandah enjoying it.
So far only moderate rain, hopefully nothing to heavy.
Checking out the radar it looks like it may go for some time yet.
Wish I had an SLR camera to take lightning photos
_________________________
-----------Near Sutton, NSW

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#818187 - 20/01/2010 14:22 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: Farmer]
WelloMeteo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 1488
Loc: Wellington Point SEQ (30km eas...
Can anyone shed light on why today's forecast includes a 60% chance of 10-20mm. I know the reasoning behind these forecasts (i.e. sometimes there is a very small chance of a storm, not worth forecasting but there all the same), but I can't work out what conditions, even if marginal, would produce that possibility today?

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#818374 - 20/01/2010 20:02 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: WelloMeteo]
WelloMeteo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 1488
Loc: Wellington Point SEQ (30km eas...
*sigh*

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#819076 - 21/01/2010 20:55 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: WelloMeteo]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5174
Loc: Diamond Valley
A voice in the wilderness Donna? My beef is with the extended outlooks for Queensland. What's happened to them? They use to be, depending on the forecaster, some great discussion on the weather. It contained what the various systems were doing and what they were expected to do. Now, it's just a straight day by day forecast with no discussion. Boring.
_________________________
The original donut hole

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#819231 - 22/01/2010 06:22 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: Inclement Weather]
Dan607 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/05/2009
Posts: 746
Loc: Sunshine Coast, Qld
Got my eye on the end of next week, could be a bit of excitement around, even BoM are going for mostly fine! Although I hope that closer to the time shear really changes direction.


Edited by Dan607 (22/01/2010 06:22)

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#819317 - 22/01/2010 10:33 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: Dan607]
Andy Double U Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/10/2006
Posts: 1829
Loc: Mundoolun, SE QLD, 129m ASL
We live in hope don't we Dan?!

Of course it's still a week off but 24 hours of model runs seem to have fairly constant instability progged, now if we can have that extended over a few days it would be good! GFS accumulated precipitation points at 25-50mm falls and WATL seems offer up similar figures. WATL's precip forecasts will be interesting to watch as time draws closer and comes within range of the other forecast models.

If GFS were the only model to look at then I would say...

Wednesday has a big cap which would pretty much stop any storms from developing. Surface winds on the preceding days being from pretty much everywhere with winds on Tuesday coming in from the south/south west. This leads me to believe that it will be too dry to really kick anything off.

Thursday, capped again (but not as much), still... I think we'd need more moisture to turn it into a sure bet. Where are our North Easters?!?!!? Need heat and humidity...

Friday, the southerly is a kick in the pants for storms in my opinion. Not to say that nothing will get up as the border ranges might provide a bit of extra oomph to get things started. Personally with that sounding, I'm thinking thundery rain as the sounding has reasonable moisture.

Anyway, good to have something to talk about!

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#819415 - 22/01/2010 12:55 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: Andy Double U]
Squeako da Magnifico. Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/06/2005
Posts: 3197
Loc: Caboolture, SE QLD
On that GFS run it also have a small low pressure system off Coffs Harbour (moving slowly north) on Friday developing in response of a upper trough... So that may explain the saturated atmosphere. That's a week away and also the 18Z run. lol
_________________________
March 2012 rainfall: 0.0mm (avg: 158.1mm)
2012 Rainfall YTD: 1016.0mm (avg: 1385.6mm)
2011 Total: 1734.6mm

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