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#833386 - 13/02/2010 07:45 Re: SA week of sct mainly PM showers & storms Sun 7th to Sun 14th Feb 2010 [Re: -Deano-]
Helen Offline
Moderator

Registered: 07/11/2001
Posts: 9642
Loc: Mid North, SA
Not here, Dean. A bit of high cloud, 18C and dead calm. wink

As for tomorrow, if you're heading to the eastern states (including the SE) you might see something chaseworthy, but nothing stands out in the models for SA that I can see, despite a "red" morning. So far, Mon. Tues. (22nd, 23rd) look far more promising, but of course as we know, a forecast that far out will definitely change. wink
_________________________
2017 YTD - 67.8mm Yearly Average - 403mm
Jan - 32.8mm (10mm) / Feb - 35.0mm (10mm) / Mar - - (15mm) / Apr - - (31mm)
May - - (46mm) / June - - (51mm) / July - - (59mm) / Aug - - (54mm)
Sept - - (48mm) / Oct - - (38mm) / Nov - - (23mm) / Dec - - (18mm)
Total 2016 - 637.2mm



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#833403 - 13/02/2010 08:51 Re: SA week of sct mainly PM showers & storms Sun 7th to Sun 14th Feb 2010 [Re: Helen]
JimmyGray Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/08/2008
Posts: 1579
Loc: Palmerston NT
jeepers, Moomba up to 51mm since 9am yesty and even more at Birdsville!! shocked
That country will be looking like the Daintree at this rate!
BTW, they have had more rain than Darwin this month. crazy

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#833415 - 13/02/2010 09:18 Re: SA week of sct mainly PM showers & storms Sun 7th to Sun 14th Feb 2010 [Re: JimmyGray]
Olaf Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/02/2010
Posts: 1851
Loc: Noarlunga, SA
Morning all

What are the experts opinions on tomorrow & storms on & east of the ranges, will they be near Adelaide?

Forecast is looking like between Murray Bridge & the SA/Vic border maybe the go, thoughts?
_________________________
�I�d keep playing. I don�t think the heavy stuff�s gonna come down for quite awhile.� Bill Murray

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#833430 - 13/02/2010 10:03 Re: SA week of sct mainly PM showers & storms Sun 7th to Sun 14th Feb 2010 [Re: Olaf]
Stargate Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/09/2003
Posts: 722
Loc: Daveron Park, Northern Suburb...
Hi and a beautiful morning too all, lovely pics everyone...

Had probs with comp the last 2 days but all is ok now..

Welcome Jane to the (rat pack) grin great to have you onboard..

Steve (Stargate)

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#833443 - 13/02/2010 10:40 Re: SA week of sct mainly PM showers & storms Sun 7th to Sun 14th Feb 2010 [Re: Stargate]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17478
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Should see Cu again on the ranges and east again today. There actually appears to even be a little instability coming through already this arvo/overnight associated with the upper cold pool. Not sure if I'm prepared to suggest any storms, but we may see some mid level showers overnight perhaps? (and definately in the morning for the city)

Models do look half decent (if not impressive) for the East tomorrow arvo. LI's are very good. It might be a wait and see though as to where anything forms & if its chase-worthy.... I think best chance will be along border, but last time we thought that, the best storms were on our doorstep lol... wink

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#833522 - 13/02/2010 13:35 Re: SA week of sct mainly PM showers & storms Sun 7th to Sun 14th Feb 2010 [Re: JimmyGray]
Max Record Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 18/04/2009
Posts: 1658
Loc: Adelaide
Originally Posted By: pilko65
jeepers, Moomba up to 51mm since 9am yesty and even more at Birdsville!! shocked
That country will be looking like the Daintree at this rate!
BTW, they have had more rain than Darwin this month. crazy


They have already gone past their rainfall record this month using both stations there (1972-05) and current one (1995-) Previous record was 161.6 in 1976; now up to 163.6.
_________________________
2017: 124.2mm
2016: 680.0mm
2015: 392.8mm
2014: 450.4mm
2013: 470.6mm
2012: 426.8mm
2011: 518.2mm
2010: 549.4mm
2009: 459.2mm
Yearly Average: 460mm

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#833587 - 13/02/2010 15:47 Re: SA week of sct mainly PM showers & storms Sun 7th to Sun 14th Feb 2010 [Re: Max Record]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14845
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Yer masisve falls in the NE Pastoral, really is standing out on the rain map as well! Would be doing wonders for Cooper Creek and Lake Eyre etc and any tributaries that flow into Lake Eyre and also Lake Frome. Given the big inland rains for QLD and NT, it could well fill a fair deal, especially after getting stacks of water last year.

Tomorrow is a nice sharp upper trough but peaks a bit too far east for Adelaide, looks good right out east but there should be enough instabilty to generate some low to mid level type showers and isolated thunder through Central areas, increasing out east of the Murray River.

TS cool

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#833612 - 13/02/2010 16:19 Re: SA week of sct mainly PM showers & storms Sun 7th to Sun 14th Feb 2010 [Re: Thunderstruck]
Helen Offline
Moderator

Registered: 07/11/2001
Posts: 9642
Loc: Mid North, SA
Thanks Lennie, pretty much confirms how I weighed up the combination of the models. Something may yet be starting to gel in this ol' brain. wink Now if only they'd update EC on here, I'd get an even better idea... it's still on last Monday's run. frown

Amazing stuff, hey Max. Sure doesn't take much to turn the land up there luscious and green, an inch will do, but 2 inches will have that country absolutely teaming with wildflowers... a landscape photographer's dream setting. smile
_________________________
2017 YTD - 67.8mm Yearly Average - 403mm
Jan - 32.8mm (10mm) / Feb - 35.0mm (10mm) / Mar - - (15mm) / Apr - - (31mm)
May - - (46mm) / June - - (51mm) / July - - (59mm) / Aug - - (54mm)
Sept - - (48mm) / Oct - - (38mm) / Nov - - (23mm) / Dec - - (18mm)
Total 2016 - 637.2mm



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#833657 - 13/02/2010 17:30 Re: SA week of sct mainly PM showers & storms Sun 7th to Sun 14th Feb 2010 [Re: Helen]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17478
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
BOM have at least added possible thunderstorms to central & Mid North areas on & east of the ranges.
Unfortunately latest models suggest the cold pool moves rather quickly into VIC, so could be well & truly into border areas by this time tomorrow.

BTW, Moomba has now had another 60mm today so 130mm in last 3 days and 220mm for the month!!!


Edited by teckert (13/02/2010 17:36)

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#833689 - 13/02/2010 18:01 Re: SA week of sct mainly PM showers & storms Sun 7th to Sun 14th Feb 2010 [Re: teckert]
aztech. Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/11/2008
Posts: 1254
Loc: Port Lincoln, Eyre Peninsula
220mm in Moomba! thats unbelievable
plenty of mid level stuff overhead here, (Elliston) accas, 1 largish virga shower to the west and a few patches of blue sky, some nice sun rays punching through the gaps so should be a nice sunset later on but should be well and truly lubed up after an Elliston counter meal and # beers! baaaaa
just been through some of the photos and nice job there to the guys that went east, I always enjoy the tales!

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#833704 - 13/02/2010 18:29 Re: SA week of sct mainly PM showers & storms Sun 7th to Sun 14th Feb 2010 [Re: aztech.]
_Chris_ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 18/03/2009
Posts: 1143
Loc: Marleston
I'm still well and truly considering heading east tomorrow. Hayley's doing fossils and dinosaurs for the next month with the kids at work, so we're going to head to a couple of the fossil sights along the Murray in the morning. Then If it still looks promising, well keep heading east. Is anyone else contemplating a chase tomorrow?

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#833709 - 13/02/2010 18:48 Re: SA week of sct mainly PM showers & storms Sun 7th to Sun 14th Feb 2010 [Re: _Chris_]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17478
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Yep if its looking good after lunch I'm out there.... I might sms you to see where you have got to...

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#833733 - 13/02/2010 19:17 Re: SA week of sct mainly PM showers & storms Sun 7th to Sun 14th Feb 2010 [Re: teckert]
-Deano- Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/10/2008
Posts: 2931
Loc: Melton VIC
Seems like it will be another cool night here tonight, the E/SE'ly wind is picking up again and the temp is dropping off quite quickly...I could get used to this! poke

It's a shame that the cold pool moves so fast, by the time my tram ride home from work is over, I will be well and truly behind all the action. Oh well, some nice showers would make up for it, 5mm is all I ask poke smile

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#833744 - 13/02/2010 19:31 Re: SA week of sct mainly PM showers & storms Sun 7th to Sun 14th Feb 2010 [Re: -Deano-]
_Chris_ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 18/03/2009
Posts: 1143
Loc: Marleston
I think apart from the loop via Mannum Rd and Burdett Rd well be sticking to the B12 this side of Lameroo. Unless of course there's quite obvious development in another direction. I'll make sure I keep the phone close at hand at all times anyway.

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#833750 - 13/02/2010 19:46 Re: SA week of sct mainly PM showers & storms Sun 7th to Sun 14th Feb 2010 [Re: -Deano-]
Olaf Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/02/2010
Posts: 1851
Loc: Noarlunga, SA
I'll be taking my lovely wife for lunch on the River at Mannum, after lunch we are going for drive possibly east, my prediction is between Murray Bridge & Lameroo for a good storm, always a favourite for a system like this.

Don't rule out a Adelaide ranges monster going up early arvo, south maybe Strath area

These sytems are very hard to forecast so I have been told by today from a duty forecaster previously, know one really knows what it's going to do when mixing with the already very humid air aloft

I will be hoping for 5mm's on my lawns also Deano, but i have already planned to water tomorrow night smile
_________________________
�I�d keep playing. I don�t think the heavy stuff�s gonna come down for quite awhile.� Bill Murray

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#833753 - 13/02/2010 19:54 Re: SA week of sct mainly PM showers & storms Sun 7th to Sun 14th Feb 2010 [Re: Olaf]
Olaf Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/02/2010
Posts: 1851
Loc: Noarlunga, SA
Did something happen on world's axis?? Look at the last update on infared sat, everything shifts south lol
_________________________
�I�d keep playing. I don�t think the heavy stuff�s gonna come down for quite awhile.� Bill Murray

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#833773 - 13/02/2010 20:32 Re: SA week of sct mainly PM showers & storms Sun 7th to Sun 14th Feb 2010 [Re: Olaf]
Helen Offline
Moderator

Registered: 07/11/2001
Posts: 9642
Loc: Mid North, SA
Nice bit of convection in the dying hours of light:



Might take a cruise to the Riverland tomorrow arvo as Graeme's offered to hold down the fort, although if Lisa gets home relatively early, he may come with. I can see next time I got to town a prepaid dongle will be in order. wink
_________________________
2017 YTD - 67.8mm Yearly Average - 403mm
Jan - 32.8mm (10mm) / Feb - 35.0mm (10mm) / Mar - - (15mm) / Apr - - (31mm)
May - - (46mm) / June - - (51mm) / July - - (59mm) / Aug - - (54mm)
Sept - - (48mm) / Oct - - (38mm) / Nov - - (23mm) / Dec - - (18mm)
Total 2016 - 637.2mm



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#833791 - 13/02/2010 21:30 Re: SA week of sct mainly PM showers & storms Sun 7th to Sun 14th Feb 2010 [Re: Helen]
Weathergod Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/05/2007
Posts: 1675
Loc: Williamstown SA.
I also wouldn't rule out a possible shower/storm form midnight to sunrise either, some nice low-mid level accass on sunset and BSCH model showing some instability mainly in the gulfs region. So if this cold pool moves quickly like Tim said, something to spark up a bit earlier maybe.. poke

Maybe Dean's area and Ricky might be a chance there..
_________________________



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#833801 - 13/02/2010 21:43 Re: SA week of sct mainly PM showers & storms Sun 7th to Sun 14th Feb 2010 [Re: Weathergod]
-Deano- Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/10/2008
Posts: 2931
Loc: Melton VIC
Meh, even if it's a little chance, I'll take any chance I can get! It's not like I'll be up for it anyway, I'll be well asleep by then poke

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#833806 - 13/02/2010 21:58 Re: SA week of sct mainly PM showers & storms Sun 7th to Sun 14th Feb 2010 [Re: -Deano-]
Weather Guru Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2008
Posts: 1636
Loc: Munno Para , Northern Suburb o...
A small lonely shower cruising across the eyre peninsula heading towards cleve. Could this be a sign of more development to come? i doubt it, the direction it's moving is wrong IMO, so at most some isolated virga verging on light teasing showeres will be about all we cop tommorow morning. Head east and feast i say!

Today had more cu buildup and one could sense it was trying to ge there but NOOOOOooooo the seabreeze timed it once again to just belt on up the gulf, quite strongly i must say and blitz any chance of a possibility. Not that there was anything forecast, but the clouds did have potential!

Storm deprived, quite often you'll see that jump on the satelite picture and on occasions even the radar. Don't be alarmed, the planet did not hiccup or shift. To keep it simple, it's a glitch.
_________________________
Adelaide forcefield monitor smile

Jan 44.1 mm
Feb 24.6 mm
Mar 3.6 mm
Apr 44.7 mm
May 39.6 mm
June 14.4 mm
July 73.5 mm
Aug 8.7 mm
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2017 YTD 253.2 mm
2016 571
2015 369.5
2014 460.5
2013 504
2012 417
2011 598.5
2010 553

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