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#833017 - 12/02/2010 09:40 SEQ, NE-NSW rain/storms/showers 14-17 February
dylos Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 02/11/2009
Posts: 445
Loc: Hattonvale
Thought i would open this one up as monday and tuesday looks quite interesting for areas around the south east. With the ground still quite wet from the last week, there could be some serious flooding again in WATL or GFS is anything to go buy, the WATL forecast has been consistent in showing 100-150mm in SEQ for Tuesday! I am not to much of a weather guru bit it would be good to hear other thoughts abut this impending (fingers crossed) event.

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#833048 - 12/02/2010 12:03 Re: SEQ, NE-NSW rain/storms/showers 14-17 February [Re: dylos]
Dave-Wx Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/08/2001
Posts: 4950
Loc: Heritage Park, Brisbane, QLD
Good start there mate...yes another interesting little trough, another fairly wet one like the last one. Not that I'm expecting 400mm in one night again but!

Though having said that, yes the current PME charts are going for similar falls about 4 days out as it did before Feb 7 (though from memory it dumped the 150-200mm stuff in the days leading up to it, not a criticism of it though)





Interestingly, the big precip blob on Tuesdays chart is almost in exactly the same place as last week I think, in the Bribie/Caboolture/Caloundra area. No doubt Squeak will be excited as the centre of it is right over his house poke

As for storms, in general there seems to be a lot more shear forecast than in previous weeks, so hopefully if cloud/rain doesn't become a problem there will be some half decent storms around too. So far I've seen between 20 and 30 knots in the mid levels which is certainly good enough for some proper storm organisation!

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#833060 - 12/02/2010 13:24 Re: SEQ, NE-NSW rain/storms/showers 14-17 February [Re: Dave-Wx]
Macca-wx Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/02/2001
Posts: 1974
Loc: Wavell Heights, QLD
20knts is not enough...30knts is just enough...

Just thinking back, I don't think we've had much this season over 30knts in the mid levels. Maybe its just my ageing memory. What I wouldn't give for a nice storm day with 40-50knts in the mid levels.

Macca

[EDIT] I'm dreading how long the grass is going to be in Buderim after last weekends rain and a week of warm, sunny weather. I just hope it doesn't rain on Saturday morning so I can mow it.


Edited by Macca-wx (12/02/2010 13:28)

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#833090 - 12/02/2010 14:37 Re: SEQ, NE-NSW rain/storms/showers 14-17 February [Re: Macca-wx]
Dave-Wx Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/08/2001
Posts: 4950
Loc: Heritage Park, Brisbane, QLD
Yeah shear this season has been pretty poor on the whole going by my (slightly younger) memory too...

Though AC was talking to one of the guys at the Bureau a year or so ago, and they jokingly said after the 08/09 season that "we might as well change our definition of possible supercell days to 'any day with shear' or 'any day with 20 knots at 500' hehehehehe

I might be just so storm and shear deprived that seeing anything between 20 and 30 knots looks very exciting! But yes, we're really talking once we hit 30 and above grin

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#833195 - 12/02/2010 18:34 Re: SEQ, NE-NSW rain/storms/showers 14-17 February [Re: Dave-Wx]
markm9 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/03/2009
Posts: 1354
Loc: bris
The use of the term 'rain periods' from BOM in SEQ for Monday and Tuesday is very encouraging 2 to 3 days out.

From what I have seen lately they have thrown around the term 'Showers' for SEQ when it has been 'Rain' in my opinion.

It is a big trough over QLD on Monday and Tuesday. Looks like the rain / floods will be wide spread although charts are showing mostly through the interior and coast around Central QLD at the moment.

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#833213 - 12/02/2010 19:00 Re: SEQ, NE-NSW rain/storms/showers 14-17 February [Re: markm9]
MikeM Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/03/2002
Posts: 1834
Loc: brisbane
mmm, can't see anything over 30mm for brisbane. I would probably go for overcast witha few showers.

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#833227 - 12/02/2010 19:39 Re: SEQ, NE-NSW rain/storms/showers 14-17 February [Re: MikeM]
Bryan Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2002
Posts: 2595
Loc: Beenleigh,
I would not be upset with another few hundred mm over the Gold Coast again!! I dont mind if my car gets smelly again! poke BRING IT ON!!! Storms would be good too!!!
_________________________
In matters of style, swim with the current; in matters of priniciple, stand like a rock!

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#833236 - 12/02/2010 20:08 Re: SEQ, NE-NSW rain/storms/showers 14-17 February [Re: Bryan]
dylos Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 02/11/2009
Posts: 445
Loc: Hattonvale
gfs has backed off, but bom are still quite confident

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#833239 - 12/02/2010 20:11 Re: SEQ, NE-NSW rain/storms/showers 14-17 February [Re: dylos]
Squid Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/09/2005
Posts: 9535
Loc: Murgon
gfs tends to come and go a bit but it has been persisting at least 125mm

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#833259 - 12/02/2010 20:48 Re: SEQ, NE-NSW rain/storms/showers 14-17 February [Re: Squid]
markm9 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/03/2009
Posts: 1354
Loc: bris
GFS have a tendency to push precipitation south to SEQ and even over the border with runs closer to the events.

They do chop and change from one run to the next so I find if you put multiple daily runs together you get clearer and more accurate picture.

The WATL from BOM have a good example of how precision can occur closer to an event but generally the same areas are affected through accuracy.

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#833275 - 12/02/2010 21:08 Re: SEQ, NE-NSW rain/storms/showers 14-17 February [Re: markm9]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6619
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
I see the expectations are HIGH yet again after last week's freakish event.

Latest WATL has dropped the 100mm blob over Caboulture. No doubt we'll see it chop & change over coming days.

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#833389 - 13/02/2010 07:59 Re: SEQ, NE-NSW rain/storms/showers 14-17 February [Re: Mega]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5186
Loc: Diamond Valley
This 'event' continues on its way to becoming a downgraded fizzer, and, after last week, just as well. Our streams and rivers just wouldn't cope with another deluge such as last week's. The catchments are all primed and flash flooding would have been a big concern. However, it looks increasingly like all the focus will be on NSW and the ACT with the possibility of an ECL eventually taking all the weather with it and leaving us with mere SE coastal stream showers.
_________________________
The original donut hole

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#833394 - 13/02/2010 08:16 Re: SEQ, NE-NSW rain/storms/showers 14-17 February [Re: markm9]
MikeM Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/03/2002
Posts: 1834
Loc: brisbane
Sorry I was really lenient in my forcast of overcast with a few showers, it should have said the forcast from the bom should be a few showers mon and tues. Rain periods.... . What is the bom on. Bom if you can hear me, um the models are showing about 10mm for brisbane on mon and maybe less on tues, heeeelllooo bommy

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#833886 - 13/02/2010 23:42 Re: SEQ, NE-NSW rain/storms/showers 14-17 February [Re: MikeM]
LQQKN Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/08/2007
Posts: 1438
Loc: , tweed coast
my best hope is for some storms

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#833906 - 14/02/2010 01:05 Re: SEQ, NE-NSW rain/storms/showers 14-17 February [Re: LQQKN]
markm9 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/03/2009
Posts: 1354
Loc: bris
Looks like the best event for over a year for SEQ, fingers crossed Wivenhoe will get some good intake.


Edited by markm9 (14/02/2010 01:12)

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#833914 - 14/02/2010 02:21 Re: SEQ, NE-NSW rain/storms/showers 14-17 February [Re: markm9]
Steven Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/04/2006
Posts: 2141
Loc: 中国上૲...
Don't forget May 2009; that caused some serious flooding in Brisbane
Considered to be the worst since 1974

North Pine Dam went from 66% to overflowing in 18 hours...

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#833948 - 14/02/2010 08:46 Re: SEQ, NE-NSW rain/storms/showers 14-17 February [Re: Steven]
Steven Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/04/2006
Posts: 2141
Loc: 中国上૲...
BOM continue to forecast good rain.
Average totals of 75mm for the Coomera region and around Brisbane.
Coomera will flood very quickly after the recent rainfall in that area

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#833969 - 14/02/2010 09:21 Re: SEQ, NE-NSW rain/storms/showers 14-17 February [Re: Steven]
WelloMeteo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 1488
Loc: Wellington Point SEQ (30km eas...
I wonder why BOM are going with the intermittent rain forecast as none of the models are showing anything worth getting excited about (although I can never remember which run is most accurate. Stormcast for Monday and Tuesday is dismal though, so at the moment the local thunder part of the BOM forecast is the most we can hope for. I'd be happy just not to have to hose the vege gardens for a couple of days - even the last 'event' barely soaked through the surface.

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#833989 - 14/02/2010 09:49 Re: SEQ, NE-NSW rain/storms/showers 14-17 February [Re: WelloMeteo]
MikeM Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/03/2002
Posts: 1834
Loc: brisbane
I don't know what the excitement is all about ? Models hardly showing anything for se qld, and forget about the BOM, they don't have a clue this year - not in terms of there forcasting accuracey, but their political coverage, eg when there is a slight chance of a drain over-flow they go for rain periods with local and possible heavy falls when it should be a few showers for bris on mon and tues. Good rains in the west, but not on the coast

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#834008 - 14/02/2010 10:26 Re: SEQ, NE-NSW rain/storms/showers 14-17 February [Re: MikeM]
storm seeker Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2010
Posts: 227
Loc: Wardell, NSW, Australia
I, myself do not think that we will get much rain at all out of this event because NE NSW was to get most of our rain on monday but that will not get by the looks of it because they keep putting it off but lets hope for the best, shall we.

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