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#822178 - 24/01/2010 18:10 Re: Looking towards the next substantial rainfall for SE Australia?? [Re: davidg]
ThunderstormZ Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/05/2009
Posts: 455
Loc: blackbutt - illawarra - NSW,
if the latest EC forecast come of there will be more flooding for inland parts of NSW again. the forecast is for TC olga to go into the gulf of carpenteria and intensify rapidly before making a southerly turn through inland Queensland the NSW.

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#822213 - 24/01/2010 18:44 Re: Looking towards the next substantial rainfall for SE Australia?? [Re: ThunderstormZ]
desert storm Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/01/2007
Posts: 1193
Loc: Maryborough Qld Home town Ali...
It would be nice to get a big feed of water into those inland NSW rivers again.

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#822435 - 25/01/2010 09:54 Re: Looking towards the next substantial rainfall for SE Australia?? [Re: desert storm]
ant Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2002
Posts: 9063
Loc: Overlooking ACT at 848m
So far for Canberra, total rainfall for 2010: 1.8mm.

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#822527 - 25/01/2010 14:26 Re: Looking towards the next substantial rainfall for SE Australia?? [Re: ant]
desert storm Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/01/2007
Posts: 1193
Loc: Maryborough Qld Home town Ali...
I see why you guys need rain ant! 1.8mm thats shocking, It feels weird living in the desert and having 151.2mm so far in 2010
and you can't even crack 2mm. I have been looking at the models and something may come down to you over the weekend fingers crossed!
Good luck!
DS

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#822531 - 25/01/2010 14:36 Re: Looking towards the next substantial rainfall for SE Australia?? [Re: desert storm]
ant Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2002
Posts: 9063
Loc: Overlooking ACT at 848m
It's depressing. Every time you use some water, you are thinking it hasn't been replenished in years. What if that low level of rainfall is the new norm? What is everyone going to drink?!

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#822549 - 25/01/2010 15:14 Re: Looking towards the next substantial rainfall for SE Australia?? [Re: ant]
kizz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/02/2002
Posts: 1859
Loc: Beacon Hill, Sydney 152m asl
I shouldn't worry too much. We have visitors from Japan arriving on Wednesday staying for a week. I'm sure there will be widespread rain for the duration of their visit as I try and show them around. We were thinking of going to the Blue Mountains one day so there should be good soaking rain and low cloud.

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#822550 - 25/01/2010 15:14 Re: Looking towards the next substantial rainfall for SE Australia?? [Re: ant]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1250
Loc: Australia
At the Gold Coast we have gone thru 16 days since we had showers/rain. Does anyone know the record of consecutive days without recording rain on the Gold Coast area??

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#822588 - 25/01/2010 16:28 Re: Looking towards the next substantial rainfall for SE Australia?? [Re: gleno71]
Keith Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/12/2001
Posts: 6453
Loc: Kings Langley, NSW
3 weeks ago I suggested in this thread that we might get a rain event in conjunction with the MJO which appeared to be running to a (roughly) 45-day cycle. It seems the marriage of Olga and Neville, though terminated rather abruptly, couldn't wait for climate cycles. However in the last tropical climate outlook the MJO was expected to reactivate this coming week.

Looking at the cycle of the SOI I am of the view that there will be a return to more widespread rainfall in February (apart from the rain that is expected to increase in western NSW later this week). I think that rain will be the first in a series.

I have no other real 'scientific basis' for this, but just the fact that we've had a dry run of several weeks (depending on where) and we are due for a change in the pattern.

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#822590 - 25/01/2010 16:34 Re: Looking towards the next substantial rainfall for SE Australia?? [Re: Keith]
ant Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2002
Posts: 9063
Loc: Overlooking ACT at 848m
SE NSW has had a dry run of more than several weeks. Any month we hit "average" rainfall has become something to comment on.

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#822621 - 25/01/2010 17:58 Re: Looking towards the next substantial rainfall for SE Australia?? [Re: ant]
bigwilly Offline
Weatherzone Mod and Photog

Registered: 25/09/2002
Posts: 6543
Loc: Junee - just north of the 'Bid...
I wouldn't be too fixated on averages Ant. At best they are only a rough indicator of what to expect.

Purely hypothetical: next year might be the start of a 10 year long wet cycle in which nearly every month is above average in rainfall. Yet looking at the 20 year period, we achieved 'average' conditions despite rarely achieving an average year.

It is misleading, particuarly in a highly variable and cyclical climate such as Australia's, to soley use averages as a benchmark.
_________________________
YTD Rainfall = 281.0mm (Avg to March 117.0mm)
MTD rainfall March = 34.7mm(Avg 41.3mm)
February 2011 total = 203.9mm (Avg 37.8mm)
2010 Rainfall: 759.3mm (Annual Avg: 521.5mm)

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#822632 - 25/01/2010 18:20 Re: Looking towards the next substantial rainfall for SE Australia?? [Re: bigwilly]
ROM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/01/2007
Posts: 6628
Agree BW.
The locals around here sort of go a bit bug eyed when I tell them that to make up the deficit in our long term 100 year rainfall records of 400 mm annual average rainfall, the annual rainfall will need to exceed that 400 mm average by at least 45 mms a year for the next 20 years to bring the average back up to where it was before the drought set in which was from 1997 on.

Sometime in the not very distant future it is going to get bloody wet around here and I suspect right across SE Australia.

When I don't know but it will happen and perhaps soon as the great decades long cycles of the Pacific, North Atlantic, Southern Ocean and even the Indian Ocean according to Bob Tisdale on his Climate Observations blog, have all switched over into a new global cycle in the last couple of years.


Edited by ROM (25/01/2010 18:24)

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#822654 - 25/01/2010 19:01 Re: Looking towards the next substantial rainfall for SE Australia?? [Re: ROM]
adon Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/08/2004
Posts: 5295
Loc: Not tellin!
Yeah averages are rather dare I say it useless as far as rainfall goes in Australia. We have months where the rain has not come until the last couple of days of the months or just the opposite. Rain coming in the first day of a month where the previous month is dry and then rain during the month making it "wet". The rainfall here is just not consistent enough to consider avergaes over such a short time span. Growing season and non growing season would be more appropriate but however even this is not really that useful either. Really every year must be looked at not by just the numbers but also the timing and intensity of rainfall. All of these can have big effects on how useful the rain is to the soil and plants.

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#822673 - 25/01/2010 20:02 Re: Looking towards the next substantial rainfall for SE Australia?? [Re: adon]
desert storm Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/01/2007
Posts: 1193
Loc: Maryborough Qld Home town Ali...
Adon, I agree with the timing and intensity part of your post. Out here in the Centre summer rains are far more important then big winter rains. Graziers just love summer rains, you get that big boost of grass. I also found studing bush budgies Big rains falling during October or November and March they will breed in plague proportions they prefer temps at those times of the year.
When that last drop of rain falls for a big wet event we are straight back into drought, While it may be green and water about we are on borowed time!

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#822825 - 26/01/2010 00:09 Re: Looking towards the next substantial rainfall for SE Australia?? [Re: desert storm]
adon Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/08/2004
Posts: 5295
Loc: Not tellin!
Yeah DS I made sure I said "growing season" as it is different everywhere and even in places that get rain more often still have a season where most of the growth will occur. Thing is that everybody has a different idea of drought but in a way you are correct as a drought always starts as the last drop of rain hit the ground. If your soils could hold moisture like ours you would benefit from rains at any time. We are winter dominant growth so rain in the cooler months is what we are after.

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#837545 - 22/02/2010 16:34 Re: Looking towards the next substantial rainfall for SE Australia?? [Re: adon]
apocalypse Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/02/2007
Posts: 1838
Loc: Wagga Wagga NSW
EC is showing a low forming in northern SA on Monday and heading down to western NSW on Wednesday.



There is also a nice looking upper low centered over Adelaide.



Edited by apocalypse (22/02/2010 16:35)
_________________________
Nathan Morris


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#837711 - 23/02/2010 07:44 Re: Looking towards the next substantial rainfall for SE Australia?? [Re: apocalypse]
bigwilly Offline
Weatherzone Mod and Photog

Registered: 25/09/2002
Posts: 6543
Loc: Junee - just north of the 'Bid...
Now both EC and GFS are showing a pretty solid low of tropical origin coming down into W NSW around the 2-3 March. Looks promising for another good drop if it comes off.
_________________________
YTD Rainfall = 281.0mm (Avg to March 117.0mm)
MTD rainfall March = 34.7mm(Avg 41.3mm)
February 2011 total = 203.9mm (Avg 37.8mm)
2010 Rainfall: 759.3mm (Annual Avg: 521.5mm)

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#837717 - 23/02/2010 08:28 Re: Looking towards the next substantial rainfall for SE Australia?? [Re: bigwilly]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2678
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
Geez i hope that comes off! Will this mean another dose of extreme humidity tho?

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#837743 - 23/02/2010 10:31 Re: Looking towards the next substantial rainfall for SE Australia?? [Re: CoastalStorm22]
BOM99 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/08/2004
Posts: 4645
Loc: Australia
Looks to me like this system has pretty much died off as far as central or southern NSW is concerned. Models slowly going off the idea the last few runs now. Temps look like staying comfortable too, not too hot just pleasant and warm. Almost the first signs of an autumn dry pattern.

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#837797 - 23/02/2010 16:12 Re: Looking towards the next substantial rainfall for SE Australia?? [Re: BOM99]
apocalypse Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/02/2007
Posts: 1838
Loc: Wagga Wagga NSW
The latest EC suggests the low going through western NSW again, after moving it further north.





Edited by apocalypse (23/02/2010 16:13)
_________________________
Nathan Morris


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#838100 - 24/02/2010 18:23 Re: Looking towards the next substantial rainfall for SE Australia?? [Re: apocalypse]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6546
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Latest GFS mid next week.....

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