Manilla Smoothed Monthly Anomalies of Climate Variables
Parametric Plots
Update for April 2012

April 2012 like winter 2011.
New raw data for April 2012 anomalies are quite similar to the smoothed values for winter 2011 for all variables but one: subsoil temperature is very high, as it has not been since March 2007.
As in winter 2011, most anomalies are near zero, but skies are very cloudy and, paradoxically, Dew Points are very low.

Record rainfall anomaly
Fully-smoothed data points for October 2011 include a new 13-year record high monthly rainfall anomaly of +38.6 mm (first graph). This beats the record set the previous month by 10 mm, but it will be beaten the following month by a similar margin. Smoothed rainfall anomalies in the last months of 2011 will be well over twice as high as those in the last months of 2010.
Note:
New data for April 2012 allow updating with more smoothing applied to all months back to October 2011, which is now fully smoothed. Fully smoothed data - gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months - are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and unsmoothed data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Cumulative values of the Southern Oscillation Index
I have posted discussion of this graph in Forums >> Weather >> Climate and Climate Change >> ENSO Discussion 2012 Post #1103736



The main feature of the graph, which is obscure in graphs that do not use CUSUM, is that La Ninas dominated the 60-year period from 1917 to 1976, and El Ninos dominated the 25-year period from 1976 to 2000.

Surly bond you are going to love! this correlation between your above graph and this graph produced by Blair trewin
on frequency of record temps in OZ ; hot and cold
Clearly indicatin the phase in pdo strongly correaltes to our temp trends

A fabulous snap correlation between record low and high extreme events in australia correlates very well with the graph above and arnosts graph of the PDO shift in phase
quite uncanny really


This graph indicating the shift commencing around 1974
ending with the great la Nina of the 1974 oz floods

lots more detail on this research here
http://www.thepunch.com.au/articles/record-heat-and-climate-change-whats-going-on/

Maybe we are trending to cooler temps .Maybe the cool phase of PDO commenced in 2010 with the break of our 14 year drought and strong 2010/2011 la Nina heralding in the next cool phase of the PDO

Smoothed Max Temp and Rainfall Anomalies
36 months to May 2012, Manilla, NSW

The first graph is a log of monthly anomalies of daily maximum temperature and rainfall totals at Manilla NSW for the last 36 months. Data are smoothed as in Note 1, below.
In this period, anomalies of monthly mean maximum temperature have related very closely to those of monthly rainfall. When temperature values have 0.67 degrees added (See Note 2.), the following relation holds almost perfectly for a period of 12 months from March 2010:

Rainfall anomaly in mm = -15 x max temp anomaly.

Relative to this formula, two mis-matches stand out:
(i) in spring of 2009, when temperatures rose to a high peak, rainfall did not reach a matching deep trough;
(ii) by spring of 2011, rainfall had already reached extremely high values (likely to be exceeded in the summer) while temperature, although very low, was lagging.
ENSO (OISSTv2) varies in sympathy with these curves. However, there is a very weak response at Manilla to the extreme La Nina of November 2010, but an extreme response to the very weak La Nina of December 2011.

I prepared the second graph because I find it hard to see just how steep the slopes are on the first graph.
For maximum temperature anomaly, the maximum rate of change was a cooling of 0.40 degrees per month in July 2010. Slightly lower maximal rates of cooling or warming occurred in August 2009, February 2010, January 2011, and (?) October 2011.
For rainfall anomaly, there was a maximum increase of +6 mm/month in June 2010, a maximum decrease of -5 mm/month in February 2011, and an extreme maximum increase of +12 mm/month in September 2011.
A very rapid increase in rainfall anomaly extended to months before and after September 2011. On the first graph one can see that the monthly rainfall anomaly (smoothed) rose from zero to +45 mm in the five months from June to November 2011. It just got wetter and wetter!

Note 1. I have given instructions for the gaussian smoothing technique that I use here. The main smoothing function uses 13 data points, so it cannot be applied to the final 6 points. For these, I use narrower and narrower smoothing functions, with less smoothing effect. The last data point is a raw value. In this case it is only an estimated value, as May results are not yet in.
Note 2. While anomalies of rainfall refer to a normal that is the average over 125 years from 1883, those of temperature refer to the average of the decade beginning March 1999.
The adjustment of +0.67 degrees is empirical, achieving a near-perfect match as shown. However, it suggests that the mean maximum daily temperature in the chosen short standard period was 0.67 degrees warmer than the long-term mean.

I was interested in your 36 month data set, surly bond ,and looked for correlations in the SOI trending patterns overlaid on your rain and temp trending over the 36 months of your study
Very excited to find an excellent correlation



there is a strong correlation between soi trending negative and your dry phase and soi trending positive yields wet phase( if l have interpreted correctly)

I like the link between rainfall and temps
Rain reduces temps or reduced temps yield rain..

Your graph would seem to indicate each phase lasts between 6 and 9 months'..you are currently in a dry phase
Look for a strong change ..up to 20 points change in soi to positive or negative in a very short time period ( one to 2 months,) to signal/yield the swing back to your wet phase if there is a change to positive by 20 points or if there is another strong neg dip of 20 points indicati)
Your graph suggests the next change to wet phase will be from may to august , completing the 6 to 9 month wet/dry phase length?

I have marked in strong shifts in the SOI of more than 14 points in one month

There appears to be no time lag

SOI data from
ftp://ftp.bom.gov.au/anon/home/ncc/www/sco/soi/soiplaintext.html

Crikey, thanks for your interest. I have almost no confidence that observed relations between ENSO and climate at my site can be used for forecasting.
Looking at various logs in this thread and others the ENSO pattern is so complex that hardly any regularities can be identified. The clear separation of the two major trends before and after the "great climate shift" of June 1976 is quite exceptional in being so obvious.
Much of the variation is a quasi-biennial oscillation, but this has very limited predictive value. Peaks and troughs sometimes come six months apart, sometimes a year, and sometimes two years apart.
I am sure that Gilbert Walker must have been quite excited to find major reversals of the SOI coming at seven-year intervals in 1904, 1911, and 1918. Then it never happened again. He never was able to predict the Indian monsoon, either.
As for a time lag, climatic peaks and troughs at Manilla often come a month or two earlier than those in the Pacific.

surly bond . I have tried to reproduce these findings of SOI trending and rainfall pattern using mean anomalies from the BOM climate data for manilla NSW and have been unable to reproduce the correlation
However l noticed your data is 'smoothed' by gaussian technique.
The smoothed data using this gaussian technique shows the link between SOI trending toward pos' or neg' phase and associated change in rainfall trends very well during the 36 months of your study
Un fortunately my limited stats' knowledge prevents me from following this further..sigh

I am not sure if you understood what l was noting
There appeared to be smaller time scale oscillations of Nina and Nino embedded within the larger time scale of the ENSO cyle based on SOI index soley
Your gaussuian technique yields nice smooth curving oscillation which corresponds very well with SOI values( trending) oscillating from pos to neg about every 6 to 9 months

Can you smooth SOI values in a time series to create the oscillating pattern and superimpose over your smoothed rainfall?
ftp://ftp.bom.gov.au/anon/home/ncc/www/sco/soi/soiplaintext.html

or maybe that is not correct technique

Hope l have explained myself better this time

Crikey, from experience, I find that it is almost impossible to make any sense of raw monthly rainfall data at Manilla. For example, Feb 2011: 103 mm, followed by Mar 2011: 42 mm (61 mm less) or Nov 2011: 243 mm followed by Dec 2011: 79 mm (164 mm less). They are like lottery numbers: mainly a matter of chance.
I get trends that might mean something only by smoothing quite a lot. I find the 13-point gaussian is effective. Have you tried to use the Excel technique I linked to?

SOI and ENSO need little smoothing because the way they are calculated stops them from being jumpy. ENSO is defined by average ocean temperatures in Region NINO3.4. Until recently, the data set used was ERSST.v3b, and it was usual to smooth this (1:1:1)/3 and call it the ONI (Oceanic Nino Index). Because of the 3-monthly averaging, the ONI results were always more than a month out of date. People seem to have been prepared to accept the delay to get a more plausible result.
Lately, the ERSST.v3b data set for ENSO has been quietly dropped, and replaced by the data set OISSTv2 (which is not quite the same). There is no favoured way to smooth OISSTv2, so far as I know, but it does need to be smoothed a little. I have smoothed using the same formula as used to make the ONI from the earlier data set: (1:1:1)/3.

When I plot SOI, I do a 3-month smooth. When left to myself, I prefer (1:2:1)/4, rather than the (1:1:1)/3 that was used by NOAA(?) to produce the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI).
The cumulative plot of SOI did not need any smoothing at all, as CUSUM plots have a smoother appearance than ordinary plots.

When l get home from holidaying in a few months, LOL.l will have a play with some 'stats'..
and EXCEL as you suggest.
Not something l can do well.
Thanks for your comments, what you say makes sense..
In relation to your cumulative SOI values graph above
here is an uncanny correlation
look at either side of the graph from the mid 70's
spot the difference on either side
http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/catalog/climind/soi.html

www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/catalog/climind/soi1.gif5

i did mark in major la nina years with blue pointers and nino with red pointers
The graph below indicates that from about 1975 the Darwin /Tahiti mslp anomalies have become larger, in particular the positive anomalies both in Darwin and Tahiti
The frequency of change from Nina to Nino has become less frequent
and the time taken to complete each event is generally much longer
triple and double peaks in both the nina an nino are more common

1982 took the cake for the largest anomaly and l believe the volcano had something to do with that because it looks like a rogue value
To me it indicates the sensitivity our climate is to volcanic activity in the short term
I wonder how volcanic emissions can enhance an El nino episode/ anomalies?

Also the latest la nina in 2010/11 had some of the highest positive anomalies on record in Tahiti

is this evidence of stronger enso events since mid 70's?

Has the anomaly pattern changed since 1975 because of the cumulative El nino trend you graphed or some other factor
why have the positive anomalies increased since 1975
I assume an increased positive anomaly since 1975 means the atmospheric pressure has been rising

Does a positive anomaly in darwin mean increased or decreasing pressure?
and does a positive anomaly for Tahiti mean increasing pressure?
I have looked all over the www and can't find the answer?

Some links you may find interesting
http://www.bom.gov.au/hydro/flood/qld/fld_history/

Tahiti mean monthly mslp
ftp://ftp.bom.gov.au/anon/home/ncc/www/sco/soi/tahitimslp.html

Darwin mean monthly mslp
ftp://ftp.bom.gov.au/anon/home/ncc/www/sco/soi/darwinmslp.html

Increasing el nino and walker circulation
http://www.cawcr.gov.au/staff/sbp/journal_articles/Power_Smith_GRL_2007.pdf


enso/spring rain
http://www.ccrc.unsw.edu.au/PDF/Ian_James.pdf

Sudden Shifts in Mean Monthly Southern Oscillation Index
Long periods of dominance of higher and lower values of the Southern Oscillation Index were identified on the CUSUM plot in Post #1103774 , above.
This graph has those results expressed more directly, as discussed in another thread.

Thanks for the interesting posts SB.
You and others may well be very interested in this SB....
in climate new thread 66 page research paper

see new thread: Drought Periods in SE Australia & Connections to Solar-Atmosphere-Ocean

Cheers

Manilla Smoothed Monthly Anomalies of Climate Variables
Parametric Plots
Update for May 2012

New raw data for May 2012 anomalies show a dry climate, quite unlike the extremely wet and very cold summer. Daily max temp was slightly above normal and rainfall well below normal. Although cloud was normal, Dew Point was extremely low, daily min temp very low, and temperature range very wide. Subsoil temperature remained high: for five months it has been two degrees warmer than might be expected from the daily maximum air temperature.

Spring (SON) 2011 anomalies (now fully smoothed) changed as follows:
Max temp fell rapidly from one degree below normal;
Rainfall began high and increased very rapidly;
Cloudiness remained rather high;
Dew Point was low, but rose slightly;
Temp range and Min temp were both rather low and decreasing;
Subsoil temp was normal.

A new 13-year record high monthly rainfall anomaly of +43.8 mm came in November (first graph). This beats the record set the previous month by 5 mm, but it may be beaten the following month.

Note:
New data for May 2012 allow updating with more smoothing applied to all months back to November 2011, which is now fully smoothed. Fully smoothed data - gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months - are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and unsmoothed data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Manilla Frosts
I have a 13 year record that shows how frosty Manilla is, and how some years are frostier than others. My thermometer is on high ground, so people living where cold air collects will have had more frosts. However, my readings show changes from one time to another. As I do not have a thermometer in the grass, I have recorded a frost when my screen reading is below +2.2°.
Total frosts

The first graph shows the number of frosty mornings in each year. The most frosts were in the years 2004 (68) and 2006 (70); the fewest were in the years 2007 (43) and 2010 (44). The 13-year average is 54.
The graph also shows the number of mornings colder than zero, minus two, and minus four degrees. On the average, these occurred on 26, 7, and 1 mornings per year. For those colder than zero degrees, 2006 was again the frostiest, but 2002 was also very frosty. Counting only the most severe frosts (below minus two or minus four degrees) 2002 was the frostiest year. It had the coldest mornings: -5.1° on both the 2nd and 11th of July.
Frosty months
The second graph shows how most frosts come in the winter months, especially July, with some frosts in autumn, but few in spring and none in summer. Few come before Anzac Day or after Labour Day.

The other graphs show that each year was different. The drought year 2002 had the highest number of frosts in a single month: 27 in July – half of all frosts in that year. By contrast, the 70 frosts of 2006 were spread through the months of winter and autumn. The peak number of frosty mornings did not always come in July. It came in June in 2000, 2004, and 2006, and in August in 1999, 2001, 2005, and 2008.

Manilla’s Hot Days
I have used my 13-year weather record to find the number of hot days in each year and in each month. Earlier I did the same for frosty mornings. Because the summer, which has the most hot days, spans from one calendar year to the next, I have begun each year at July.
I have called days warmer than 35° “hot days”, and days warmer than 40° “very hot days”.
Total hot days
The first graph shows the number of hot and very hot days in each year. The most hot days were in the year ’09-’10, which had 44; the fewest were in the year ’11-’12, which had only 4. The 13-year average is 26, but the number of hot days is quite different from year to year.
Counting only the very hot days, ’03-’04 had the most (6), and four years had none at all. On the average, two days exceeded 40° in a year.

Months with hot days
The second graph shows how the number of hot and very hot days peaks strongly in January, with very few earlier than November or later than March. On average, Manilla’s summer has about 22 days warmer than 35°, while spring has 3, and autumn only 1.

The other graphs show how each year had a different pattern of hot days. The highest monthly peaks, each 19 hot days, came in January 2003 (following drought) and January 2007. Annual peaks also came in January in 2008 and 2012, but these peaks were extremely low: only 4 and 3 hot days.
Peak numbers of hot days came as late as February in three of the years, and as early as December in one.
The year ’09-’10 was very strange: the peak came in November 2009. December and January also had many hot days, but February had few.


Of the 26 days on record that are warmer than 40°, half of them occurred in January months, including five in January 2003. Four others were in November 2009, including the hottest: 42.6°.

Manilla Smoothed Monthly Anomalies of Climate Variables
Parametric Plots
Update for June 2012

June 2012 anomalies show a return to normalcy for rainfall and max temp. Three moisture-related measures returned to the values of last winter: rather high cloudiness, rather low daily temperature range, and (strangely) rather low Dew Point. Daily min temp returned to the high positive anomaly last seen in 2010.
The subsoil became extraordinarily warm. (Why?)

In the first graph, fully-smoothed data (in red) show that the 13-year record high monthly rainfall anomaly of November 2011 (+43.8 mm) was not beaten in December, as had seemed likely. The smoothed max temp of December 2011 equaled the record cool anomaly of -1.96 degrees set in October 2010.

Note:
New data for June 2012 allow updating with more smoothing applied to all months back to December 2011, which is now fully smoothed. Fully smoothed data - gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months - are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.

Great work SURLY BOND
Its not very often you can read Australian case studies on frosts or even local studies such as your own in Manilla!!

Interesting that from 2007 to 2012 this period contained both the most hottest days and the least hottest days from 1999 to 2012

This time period seems to have some strong temperature variation/amplitude compared to the earlier period of 1999 to 2006
in manilla NSW

Also notice the number of frosts drop off from 2007 to 2012
What are your thoughts on the reasons for that?

In relation to soil surface temp rising in June 2012? and why?
Just did a google and
One suggestion
Clay soils are notoriously slow to warm up in spring, due to their retention of water after the winter
(Maybe it is the quality/type of your soil )
Clay versus loam? stoney etc( the specific heat of the soil)
http://apps.rhs.org.uk/advicesearch/profile.aspx?PID=695

try some different soils in the same pots ( controlled experiment) and measure the temp variation between the soils

I have a very short data record so far, crikey.
I do have thoughts on things such as the scarcity of frosts 2007 to 2011 but, if you are asking whether I think that is significant, I say, as Zhou Enlai said of the impact of the French Revolution, "it is too early to say". So far, this winter (2012) has returned to normal for frosts.
[Zhou Enlai quote discussed in Comment #9 here:
http://www.socialistunity.com/deng-xiaoping-rural-china-and-the-french-revolution/ ]

On the time-log graphs for both frosts and hot days I have added a parabolic trend line that is high in the middle. I am just "stirring". People are less likely to extrapolate a trend into the distant future if it is not a linear trend, I feel.

As to the stronger fluctuations in the later years (hot days) or the middle years (frosts), the record is about ten times too short to treat this as anything but noise.

Monthly Weather Anomalies (Smoothed)

Index to Parametric Plots

Data for Manilla NSW

In this thread, I have posted a series of monthly updates that plot smoothed anomaly values of six other variables against smoothed mean monthly maximum temperature anomaly. Each update has graphs for anomalies of the six other variables: rainfall total, cloudy mornings %, early morning dew Point, daily temperature range, minimum temperature, and subsoil temperature (750 mm). Each plot shows three years' data, but only the first 30 months are fully smoothed.
Updates are:
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010

Earlier plots that are less complete and less standardised are:
Seasonal rainfall vs. max temp for winter 1999 to spring 2009 here.
Monthly rainfall vs. max temp for September 1999 to December 2009 here.
Monthly rainfall vs. max temp for January 2006 to February 2010 here.
Cloudy days vs. Rainfall for September 1999 to February 2010 here.
Cloudy days vs. max temp for September 1999 to February 2010
here.
Dew Point vs. max temp for September 1999 to February 2010 here.
Subsoil temp vs. max temp for September 1999 to February 2010
here.
The first monthly update (to March 2010) in the standardised format, but with only 4 variables plotted against max temp
here.
Daily temp range vs. max temp for September 1999 to February 2010
here.
Min temp vs. max temp for September 1999 to February 2010 here.

Later special plots are:
Dew Point vs. Min temp (with RH shown) April 2009 to March 2012 here.
Dew Point vs. Min temp (with RH shown) September 1999 to August 2009 here.

Data for Australia

For the whole of Australia, I have plotted smoothed monthly anomaly of rainfall against that of max temperature for all months from January 1950
here and
here.

A metre of rain
In the 12 months ending July 2012, Manilla, NSW (where the median 12-month rainfall total is 635 mm) has had more than a metre of rain. To the 19th there has been 1006 mm registered, and the month is not over yet!
In the record since 1883, there have been only 28 months with a twelve-month rainfall total of more than a metre. They form three groups.

Late 19th century:
Mar 1890: 1123 mm
Apr 1890: 1087 mm
May 1890: 1087 mm
Jun 1890: 1131 mm
Jul 1890: 1124 mm
Aug 1890: 1108 mm
Sep 1890: 1158 mm (the record!)
Oct 1890: 1150 mm
Nov 1890: 1094 mm
Dec 1890: 1129 mm
Jan 1891: 1125 mm
Jan 1895: 1023 mm

Soon after World War II:
Jul 1950: 1040 mm
Nov 1950: 1023 mm
Oct 1955: 1006 mm
Apr 1956: 1045 mm
May 1956: 1135 mm
Jun 1956: 1141 mm
Jul 1956: 1130 mm
Aug 1956: 1099 mm
Sep 1956: 1077 mm
Apr 1964: 1042 mm

In the last thirty years:
Feb 1984: 1033 mm
Mar 1984: 1013 mm
Sep 1998: 1053 mm
Oct 1998: 1064 mm
Nov 1998: 1012 mm
Jul 2012: 1006 mm (so far!)

The record for maximum rainfall in 12 months is 1158 mm, set in September 1890.

The record for minimum rainfall in 12 months is 288 mm, set in October 1965. Few months in the record have 12-month rainfall totals less than 400 mm, but they include every month from May 1965 to February 1966.

Manilla Smoothed Monthly Anomalies of Climate Variables
Parametric Plots
Update for July 2012
"Back towards very wet"

Most July 2012 anomalies are close to normal, and like those of the month before. Rainfall, however, is again very high, as in the spring and summer, and daily min temp has gone from very low in May to very high.
The subsoil remained extraordinarily warm. (Why?)

Fully-smoothed data (in red) show that the 13-year record low monthly max temp anomaly of October 2010 (-1.96 degrees) was beaten in January 2012, with a new low value of -2.03 degrees, perhaps to be beaten in the following month. At Manilla, the "flooding rains" climate phase of 2011-12 was very much wetter and somewhat cooler than that of 2010-11.

Note:
New data for July 2012 allow updating with more smoothing applied to all months back to January 2012, which is now fully smoothed. Fully smoothed data - gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months - are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.