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#881937 - 07/09/2010 19:56 Re: Australian Federal Election 2010 [Re: strontium dog]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19046
Loc: The Beach.
It's funny how certain politicians and certain sectors of the community can't count. Firstly the ALP had the majority vote, followed by Liberal, then the Nationals and then the Greens. As the LNP are two parties in coalition with 74 seats (if you count Crook) between them (7 or more were national seats) that means the count was made up by "TWO" parties. As a single party the ALP won the most seats. if you factor in the One Million plus votes that went to the nationals the ALP also had the most votes. So it comes down to fiddling the numbers to suit the spin. A lot like the costings debacle.

This afternoon Abbott said the coalition had the most seats. Which coalition does he refer to? I'm assuming that he means the LNP but then a new coalition was formed today that created a 76 seat majority to form government. Oddly enough this arrangement is no different to the Liberal / national one in that it was used to increase the number of seats. How do they differ?

It also appears to be lost on people that these independents were once a part of the LNP and left due to an obvious distaste for the party. Now the tears are flowing because they don't wish to support the party they left. They are INDEPENDENTS. Now they don't wish to support them they are dogs. Hmmmm.

The suggestion that the LNP would win government in its own right at a fresh poll is highly debatable. Two thirds of voters that swung away from labor did so to the greens despite knowing the risk. They simply couldn't bring themsleves to vote for Abbott and even the majority of the 700,000 informals were protest votes. Given Abbott's antics with the costings I doubt he would gain a majority vote. There was a thread in News.com after his costings debacle that was full of LNP voters who wanted another vote. They felt ripped off. Then there are those green voters that protested but didn't really want Abbott in.

When the ABC asked Katter's electorate if he had made the right choice they weren't convinced he had. Several commented that as he had sided with opposition the electorate would miss out again and others were levelled directly at Abbott and their distaste for the man and Kennedy is about as conservative as you can get. It is entirely farm based. Despite month upon month of media spin against the current government Abbott did not form a majority government.

Listening to the ABC radio tonight the vast majority of voters are for this arrangement. Remembering of course that Queensland recorded the biggest swing to the LNP. So I am not sure that Abbott is a safe bet in a fresh poll.

My guess is that he will do whatever he can in the short term to force an early poll. Because "IF" this new coalition works the longer it goes on the lesser his chances of getting into government. Watch for Steve Fielding to cause as much disruption as possible in the senate between now and June next year despite Abbott's refusal to endorse him. Of course Abbott made those comments whilst trying to form a minority government. Perhaps his stance will change now.

I also find it amusing that Bishop was allowed to speak now the horse has bolted. For 5 weeks during the election campaign she was gagged.

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#881940 - 07/09/2010 20:29 Re: Australian Federal Election 2010 [Re: Arnost]
Rime Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/06/2001
Posts: 1444
Loc: Perth,WA
Originally Posted By: Arnost
The interesting thing is that Abbott (and Bishop) by Liberal rules have to spill and declare the leadership positions vacant (they can of course re-nominate). It will be interesting if Turnbull nominates as well - I'm guessing that he won't, but this government may fold in a matter of months... And I'm guessing that Labor will have even a harder time next time and if Abbott wins that - that will be it for Turnbull's Prime Ministerial ambitions. Interesting times. I'm hearing it's on Thursday.


The Libs would be absolutely stupid if they contemplate putting Turnbull back in as leader. Turnbull would never win over the conservative minded, which is a huge chunk of the Liberal base. Abbott's convictions and discipline brought the Libs back from the dead despite all the negative press and predictions about him. He has gained huge amount of respect because of it. I am with you and expect that the Labor government will fold within months or at least before the senate change over in July next year.

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#881944 - 07/09/2010 21:03 Re: Australian Federal Election 2010 [Re: strontium dog]
Shayne Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 26/01/2006
Posts: 5816
Loc: Cedar Grove SEQ
Originally Posted By: strontium dog
Well Bad Shayne, when the US congress allows the F22 to be sold we could look at it but till then there is no point trying.


are the Japanese not getting a less sophisticated version of the F22...eh..maybe im wrong..if the Japs ind Israeli's get them..we should too..

still....im freaked out enough with the election result...
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#881945 - 07/09/2010 21:09 Re: Australian Federal Election 2010 [Re: Rime]
Arnost Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/02/2007
Posts: 3909
Yes Rime, the Libs WOULD be that stupid .

The fact is if Turnbull would have retained the leadership in November last year, we would have had an ETS and Rudd would be PM with an increased majority. But so what? Diddn't happen and Abbott lost the election.

And the pundits ARE right that if all things being equal and the election was between Gillard and Turnbull, Malcolm would have been PM for two weeks with seats to spare. That's reality - and an Abbott / Gillard replay may result in a hung parliament.

My gut feel is that the next election will be between Shorten and Turnbull. Sorry Tony - you have done a job that only heroes can only aspire to - but you are destined to be a footnote in history ... Roadkill as you so presciently put it 9 months ago.

I agitated for Turnbulls removal last year. I'll do it again as I think that Abbott is one of the most decent guys in Parliament at the moment... But as the saying goes - expectations modified by reality - i.e. Comprehension creep!
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#881948 - 07/09/2010 21:19 Re: Australian Federal Election 2010 [Re: Arnost]
Arnost Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/02/2007
Posts: 3909
CF - you are wrong.

Quote:
Its funny how certain sectors of the community can't count


There is a vast difference between the Lib/Nat coalition and Labor/Greens. The Nats did not run a single candidate in city seats and the Libs did not run a candidate in many rural seats. And even more telling, the Lib/Nats did not run separately, but on the same ticket in the Senate.

The Lib/Nat coalition got most seats. WE'D


Edited by Arnost (07/09/2010 21:23)
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“No. Not even in the face of Armageddon. Never compromise” ...

And this of course applies to scientific principles. Never compromise these. Never! [Follow the science and you will be shown correct in the end...]

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#881960 - 07/09/2010 22:10 Re: Australian Federal Election 2010 [Re: Arnost]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19046
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: Arnost
Libs did not run a candidate in many rural seats.


The key word being "many" ....and yeah I'm wrong but only from one side but that's hardly surprising. The Liberals couldn't get the numbers to win any elections. Nor could the nationals. Hence the merger. Now that Labor have entered one it is not acceptable. Give me a break.

I can't help but think that Abbott and Co's demanding that the independents support them was part of their downfall. How arrogant and if I was one of those independent I'd protest too.

It's funny that I have heard both Abbott and Howard labelled as heroes by LNP supporters over the past few weeks but as the worst kind of liars by everyone else. Infact even some LNP supporters lost faith in him after the costings blackhole. That kind of dishonesty doesn't warrant a hero tag. Everyone on one side is praising Abbott's efforts yet on the other they are saying "If this guy is so great why isn't he PM?"
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#881962 - 07/09/2010 22:33 Re: Australian Federal Election 2010 [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19046
Loc: The Beach.
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#881964 - 07/09/2010 22:40 Re: Australian Federal Election 2010 [Re: ColdFront]
Arnost Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/02/2007
Posts: 3909
Oh FFS:
Quote:
KEY Independent Rob Oakeshott has been offered the role of minister for regional development in the Gillard Government.

Talk about a conflict of interest! Don't these people think? In the private sector Directors go to the wall on stuff like this...
_________________________
“No. Not even in the face of Armageddon. Never compromise” ...

And this of course applies to scientific principles. Never compromise these. Never! [Follow the science and you will be shown correct in the end...]

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#881965 - 07/09/2010 22:41 Re: Australian Federal Election 2010 [Re: Arnost]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19046
Loc: The Beach.
This isn't the private sector!
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#881967 - 07/09/2010 22:55 Re: Australian Federal Election 2010 [Re: Arnost]
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5236
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Originally Posted By: Arnost
Oh FFS:
Quote:
KEY Independent Rob Oakeshott has been offered the role of minister for regional development in the Gillard Government.

Talk about a conflict of interest! Don't these people think? In the private sector Directors go to the wall on stuff like this...

What's the problem? He represents consituents in the regions...and would make a great advocate for regional development...Really don't see what the problem is here?

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#881968 - 07/09/2010 23:12 Re: Australian Federal Election 2010 [Re: KevD]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25465
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
the independents have been voted in by the people of their electorate. all 3 of them have made it clear and simple over the past 3 weeks that they will do what they think is best for their seat, and also made it very clean they want more done for regional australia. this hasnt been a secret. if Oakeshott is given a ministerial position for regional development then that is exactly what the independents were fighting for. why wouldnt he take that type of roll? i think they have shown great leadership in being clearcut about all this and i think Rob would do an excelent job as a minister.
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#881969 - 07/09/2010 23:24 Re: Australian Federal Election 2010 [Re: KevD]
Arnost Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/02/2007
Posts: 3909
The man has just been given a blank chequebook - well maybe not blank... It has a 10 billion dollar limit ... And off you go. Spend as you want. So what is the problem? (1) This has been given as a payment/bribe in return for support, and (2) the disbursement is into areas where the recipient has personal interest. The money is "public" and so there is a fiduciary duty to manage as best as can - and this is a clear case where there is a conflict of interest so leading to fiduciary breach.
_________________________
“No. Not even in the face of Armageddon. Never compromise” ...

And this of course applies to scientific principles. Never compromise these. Never! [Follow the science and you will be shown correct in the end...]

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#881975 - 07/09/2010 23:53 Re: Australian Federal Election 2010 [Re: Arnost]
davidg Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/06/2008
Posts: 2248
Loc: Glenbrook/Penrith
Um, so hes been offered a ministerial position in which he has been alotted funding for regional developement? In what way is that a conflict of interest? As far as i can tell it works in much the same way as most of the other sectors i.e. education, agriculture, health. The party will still have to approve his use of the funds for sure. I dont think hes gonna head out and buy everyone in his electorate a new car.

And yes i agree with Mick, he signed with Labour because they offered him the chance to provide some much needed infrastucture upgrades and place more impotance on regional areas which up until this point have been thoroughly neglected. As far as i can tell its not a payment or bribe, but a promise to support the issues that oakeshott sees as important. Why is the libs offering wilkie $1b just for his electorate any different? In fact i see that as far more of a conflict of interest. At least if oakeshott accepts the position the money will be spent to benefit the whole country.


Edited by davidg (07/09/2010 23:55)

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#881979 - 08/09/2010 07:06 Re: Australian Federal Election 2010 [Re: davidg]
Cheers Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 26/05/2007
Posts: 1117
Loc: sevenhills nsw
It's great to have a PM who is not a god fearing wally.
All the prays didn't help abbort.
Abbort is & always will be a low life.
Now back to the weather

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#881980 - 08/09/2010 07:14 Re: Australian Federal Election 2010 [Re: davidg]
Arnoldnut Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 18/10/2006
Posts: 1559
Loc: Arnold, NthWest Vic
hear hear! wink

the election may have been a mess but the outcomes for the bush are more than either party would have offered under any circumstances.
the citicentrics will scream their heads off even though all the best advise says the bush has been ignored and underfunded for too long.
The way parliament runs with this mix will be interesting to see. I believe this is a whole new deal of cooperation which has been foreign to these guys in the past.
I for one think the outcomes have been good for australia.
We may just see a new era of cooperation with all pushing in the same direction.
.....needless to say some will never get used to it ...be them voters or polies.


Edited by Arnoldnut (08/09/2010 07:15)
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#881986 - 08/09/2010 07:46 Re: Australian Federal Election 2010 [Re: Arnoldnut]
bigwilly Offline
Weatherzone Mod and Photog

Registered: 25/09/2002
Posts: 6543
Loc: Junee - just north of the 'Bid...
Haha talk about an over-reaction!!!

Heaven forbid that a Minister be assigned a portfolio about which he actually has good knowledge!!!

The State Gov had that philosphy when they set up the Firearms Registry; they thought if any of the bureaucrats had an interest in firearms then they would automatically have a conflict of interest - you know the typical knee-jerk reaction: "it kinda sounds like one might exist, therefore it must". As a result there is a total lack of knowledge and the registry is a laughing stock in the shooting/hunting world.

Oakshott is from a regional seat, he should know what needs to be done and maybe even the best way to go about it for regional areas; does that it not then make sense that he be offered the portfolio?
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#881991 - 08/09/2010 08:17 Re: Australian Federal Election 2010 [Re: bigwilly]
Cheers Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 26/05/2007
Posts: 1117
Loc: sevenhills nsw
I see barny joyce has been let off his leash

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#881994 - 08/09/2010 08:36 Re: Australian Federal Election 2010 [Re: Cheers]
Dazza_XL Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2003
Posts: 2203
Loc: Bushland Beach
Originally Posted By: Cheers
It's great to have a PM who is not a god fearing wally.
All the prays didn't help abbort.
Abbort is & always will be a low life.
Now back to the weather .


For what it's worth, I don't "Support/Follow/Worship" any of the major parties.
But resorting to childish name-calling is just that, very childish IMO.

Same goes for all the "Mad Katter" comments in the media. Sure, he might come across as being a bit over the top. And he does have some out-there opinions on some issues. But when you receive over 46.7% of the Primary Vote and 68.4% After preferences, he must be doing something right.

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#881995 - 08/09/2010 08:41 Re: Australian Federal Election 2010 [Re: bigwilly]
Andy Double U Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/10/2006
Posts: 1829
Loc: Mundoolun, SE QLD, 129m ASL
I dunno, Oakshott is compromised. In return for his support of the ALP he has been given $10 billion and a ministerial position. What the ALP giveth, they can also taketh. I'd say he will have to tow the party line, so much for being an independent. He would have been far better off negotiating a wish list straight off the bat and remaining apolitical. The difference between Abbott's offer to Wilkie and the ALP's one to Oakshott is that Abbott's offer was specific and directed, it was for a ground up rebuild of Hobart hospital, Oakshott on the other hand, how is it being spent in regional areas? There are no specifics.

I'll hand it to Katter, from what I can see, his 20 point wish list was the best objective method to assess the intentions of the two parties. He negotiated from a position of strength and I have to respect that, no matter how scatter brained some of the things he says seem to be!

Tony Windsor... well ahhhh, I think one of his reasons said it all. He put his vote to the less popular party because he felt it gave him a bigger/longer bite at the cherry. The feeling I get from these independents is that they know this is a unique opportunity as far as leverage goes and he voted the way that will provide him with greatest amount of time to use it. In short, he has gone against the wishes of what he feels the majority of Australians want for his own personal gain. I've heard a few things about the dealings with Windsor and from what I hear, he is a uses people/parties to gain a toe hold and flicks them to the curb. Good luck to him though and it will be interesting to see what his electorate makes of his decision.

In effect though, what the Greens and the independents have given Labor is a pledge that they won't vote with frivolous no confidence motions and that they will ensure supply. Beyond that it is anyone's ball game and I predict a massive talk fest with next to no action. Legislation will not be passed in either house untouched and may exit out the other end not even vaguely representing what went in.

I don't envy Gillard in the slightest, she will definitely be herding cats for however long the next term is, I can't see it being a long lasting truce and I certainly can't see anything worthwhile being achieved! They'll fiddle and dilly dally around trying not to ruffle feathers, trying to prolong their hold on power... This is the last thing Australia needed. At this time we need some decent leadership, we need to set a course and get on with things. Anyone who thinks we are all set now is totally naive in my opinion. If you thought the rhetoric and BS was tough to handle over the last term, get ready for more of it in spades!!!

BW, I'm not sure you need to be an expert or be overly familiar in a particular ministerial role to do a good job. Some times you just end up with more of the same because there is no fresh perspective. The most important thing for a minister charged with a particular responsibility is that they have a natural interest in the area. One person full of hope and aspirations is usually not enough, just look at Kevin Rudd. Oakshott's ultimate success hinges on him being able to surround himself with people who also have affinity and understanding on rural and regional issues and his ability to ignore or act on advice. His rate of success will be up for scrutiny after he has been in the job. It was quite ironic watching the man who wants short questions and answers rabbit on for what seemed like hours before finally announcing his decision. One final tip I've got for Oakshott is don't give up your day job, comedy just doesn't suit... even if it was nervousness, he should've taken a leaf out of Abbott's book and just shutup!

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#881996 - 08/09/2010 08:42 Re: Australian Federal Election 2010 [Re: Cheers]
looselipslou Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/04/2006
Posts: 351
Loc: Darwin/Palmerston
For me, in a nut shell, is that while I did not vote for Labor (in my area), I am satisfied with the outcome. I did not 'lose' becuase I didn't vote Labor, I made my vote count. If anyone were to say there was a victory, I guess it would go to the farmers and rural folk which often work their guts out and receive very little in return.

Oakeshott and his portfolio - Yes, he understands what's needed and it's obviously what he's aimed for. I think he's the perfect bloke for that job.

One thing that still lingers in my head is will Bill Shorten make his move or does he even have an intention to? I am sure back in the Beaconsville Mine coverage he said he wasn't, when asked, interested in going into politics.

I have been entertained reading various forums where the participants range from 'opinionated-educated', opinionated-uneducated' and 'opinionated-thinks they're educated' lol. I think I am getting popcorn and beer for tonight's entertainment. (I think I just fall in the opinionated category rofl).


Edited by looselipslou (08/09/2010 08:48)
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