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#887679 - 04/10/2010 17:14 Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5373
Loc: Diamond Valley
Well, it's that time of year when the seasonal outlook get's released and this season should be a lulu with up to six cyclones predicted for the Coral Sea:

Seasonal Outlook 2010-11 for Queensland and the Coral Sea Region
Summary: La Nina boosts the odds of Queensland having an active cyclone season.

Queensland may experience above average tropical cyclone activity this coming season, with up to six cyclones developing in the Coral Sea. It is also likely to be wetter than normal in most parts.

The Bureau of Meteorology's Queensland Regional Director, Jim Davidson, said this is because we're now in a La Nina climate phase, which he expects will remain the dominating influence through the Spring and Summer months.

La Nina events are usually associated with above normal rainfall across much of Queensland and enhanced tropical cyclone activity in the Coral Sea.

Mr Davidson said "What this translates to is where historically we could expect an average of four cyclones a season in the Coral Sea, we now expect the number to be potentially higher, but the number of cyclones actually making landfall can be quite variable from season to season."

"However, under these conditions, we have a good chance of a cyclone crossing the coast before the year is out." he said.

Mr Davidson urged Queenslanders to "prepare early not only for cyclones but also for floods as we have already experienced record September rainfalls across the state."

"Preparation is the key to safety, and we encourage communities to factor in the possibility of a destructive cyclone or major flood into their pre-season planning." said Mr Davidson.


Let the discussion begin . . .

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#887688 - 04/10/2010 17:26 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Things Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 8400
Loc: Blair Athol, SA
Was gonna say, the season doesn't start for another month yet, but interesting seasonal outlook grin

I'm happy with 6 cyclones, as long as they all don't scoot past the coast and leave us with nothing poke

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#887712 - 04/10/2010 18:17 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Things]
SBT Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2007
Posts: 14286
Loc: Townsville Dry Tropics
6 is that a combined total with Qld/WA and the NT?
For my money I think 3.

One near Cooktown before Xmas.
One Townsvile area in Jan and the last one further south between mackay and Rocky right at the end of teh seaon. Hope I'm wrong. Just basing it on a gut feeling. None will be above Cat 3 when they hit teh coast.
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#887716 - 04/10/2010 18:20 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Things Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 8400
Loc: Blair Athol, SA
Originally Posted By: Inclement Weather
with up to six cyclones developing in the Coral Sea.


6 in the CS only smile

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#887767 - 04/10/2010 19:14 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Things]
Steven Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/04/2006
Posts: 2191
Loc: 中国上૲...
The last time the 90 day SOI was this high I did not have access to the information
As of Sun Oct 3rd 2010
The 30 day SOI was +25.34 and the 90 day SOI was +21.52

Water temperatures appear to be over 26C below 20S latitude (Townsville and Cairns)

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#887777 - 04/10/2010 19:23 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Steven]
Afroboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/12/2005
Posts: 1719
Loc: Stratford, Cairns
Should be an interesting season. And will be very interesting if we see even a weak cyclone form before the year is out.
To prepare, i have already arranged for a HUGE Cuban Royal palm to be taken down in my yard. If the build up to the wet season keeps up with the rain, the soil will be very soggy and will easily up root trees should there be any crossings near by.
The SOI is definitely looking good
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#887779 - 04/10/2010 19:26 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Steven]
Steven Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/04/2006
Posts: 2191
Loc: 中国上૲...
Correcting my last post (this is the Southern Hemisphere - I have spent too many hours looking at the Asian typhoon season).

Water temperatures are 26C+ near Townsville and Cairns (and further north).
This is from about 18S north to the equator

Below 18S the water temperatures are between 24C and 26C

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#887780 - 04/10/2010 19:28 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Things]
nitso Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/11/2006
Posts: 4236
Loc: Kirwan
Oooo I like that outlook!!! Just looking at buying some measuring equipment for the next chase we go on. Kestrel 4000 with all the bells and whistles or the Kestrel 1000 which just measures wind? Difference in price = about $300

If as he says we're looking at one before the year's out, then you'd assume it's more than likely going to be north of Cairns just for the simple reason that wind shear over the past 5 yrs has been above average through the Coral Sea despite going through a long period of la nina's and neutral years. Hopefully with this La Nina we see the STJ weaken considerably and move southwards allowing all hell to break loose in the north.

It appears as though the Solomons is heading into a period of instability with several models toying with the idea of a weak surface LOW or surface trough in the region. To date GFS is the only one that's going off the deep end with a cyclone developing east of the Solomons late next week/weekend and being whisked away as you'd expect to the SE. Looks like the entire NE Coral Sea/SW Pacific will be under a benign upper pattern associated with surface and mid level ridging from some monster southern HIGHS and a lack of upper troughs. This could be conducive for some type of development at least at surface and mid levels.

The models are certainly far more interesting this October compared to last year's one.

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#887799 - 04/10/2010 19:55 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: nitso]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23724
Loc: Townsville
Its a hard choice man, i say the most expensive one, max gust 218kmhr, humidity sensor, temp sensor,water proof, gotta love it, we need the good stuff.
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#887801 - 04/10/2010 20:00 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Dawgggg]
nitso Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/11/2006
Posts: 4236
Loc: Kirwan
This is from WZ News page today:
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/early-cyclones-predicted-off-qld/15129

The weather bureau fears a cyclone will form off the Queensland coast by Christmas.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (ABM) has released its seasonal outlook.

It shows a distinct La Nina weather pattern, which is expected to lead to an increase in cyclone activity in the Coral Sea.

Forecaster Tony Auden says up to six cyclones could form off Queensland in coming months.

"We are expecting ... the potential cyclone season to start early," he said.

"Normally we only very rarely get cyclones forming in December or even November, but there is every chance of an increased risk this year that we will see a tropical cyclone before about Christmas."

He says residents need to be prepared for the cyclone season and above average rainfall.

"We're expecting a fairly wet season and I guess as a proxy to that, we can expect an above average cyclone season over the next six months," he said.

He says while it is difficult to pinpoint where cyclones will form, it is likely north Queensland will see an increase in activity.

Mr Auden says at least one severe cyclone is also tipped to cross the Queensland coast.

"I guess historically we've seen ... on average about three to four cyclones in a season and I guess averaging below one coastal crossing per year," he said.

"Historically, with a similar ocean patterns we've had three similar years and all of those have seen either six or seven cyclones either in the Coral Sea and at least one severe coastal crossing."

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#887806 - 04/10/2010 20:32 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: nitso]
Ms Milo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/03/2010
Posts: 355
Loc: Angourie, North Coast NSW
Bring it on
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#887807 - 04/10/2010 20:33 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Ms Milo]
Ms Milo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/03/2010
Posts: 355
Loc: Angourie, North Coast NSW
I'm calling one for SE Qld crossing early Feb
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#887812 - 04/10/2010 20:44 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Ms Milo]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23724
Loc: Townsville
I wont call anything at all until i actually see 6 Tropical cyclones in the coral sea over summer and autumn lol
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#887815 - 04/10/2010 20:48 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Ms Milo]
adam17 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/01/2002
Posts: 3268
Loc: Townsville - Queensland
Originally Posted By: Ms Milo
I'm calling one for SE Qld crossing early Feb


Nope, not a chance.. Cyclones won't venture down that far any more, they're scared the government might try and sell them.

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#887824 - 04/10/2010 21:08 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: adam17]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25465
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
i am not a fan of over the top cyclone predictions in la nina years. but that comment will hopefully bite me in the behind come april.
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#887829 - 04/10/2010 21:22 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Mick10]
nocturnal1 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 04/03/2010
Posts: 1085
Loc: Murwillumbah, NE NSW
Oprah and her fan club might have lots of fun up there in Cairns if there's a tropical cyclone in north QLD before Christmas! grin (They are supposed to be coming in early to mid December this year).

And Ms Milo I agree, SEQ/NENSW is overdue for a crossing! I have a hunch we've got a '56 or '74 event on order for 2011...

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#887833 - 04/10/2010 21:29 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Mick10]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Mick10
i am not a fan of over the top cyclone predictions in la nina years. but that comment will hopefully bite me in the behind come april.

Neither, but something feels 'right' this year compared to the shocking cyclone season that was 07/08.

EDIT: rofl @ Locke's post below. laugh

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#887834 - 04/10/2010 21:30 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Mega]
Donweather Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/01/2009
Posts: 152
Loc: Brisvegas
As for the strengthening La Nina, based on my limited understanding of the NOAA data (and forecasts), the CFS ensemble mean forecast of the Nino 3.4 SST anomalies is currently predicted to reach -2 by the end of this year. Historically, the years that we've previously seen a La Nina this strong are as follows

1956 - 6 TC's within the Coral Sea
1974 - 8 TC's within the Coral Sea
1976 - 7 TC's within the Coral Sea
1988 - 4 TC's within the Coral Sea

So based on historical data, if we see the La Nina strengthen as forecast, could certainly be a wild and woolly summer!!!

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#887836 - 04/10/2010 21:34 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Donweather]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4553
Loc: Brisbane
I'm just waiting for MikeM to post and say the season is over already.
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#887842 - 04/10/2010 21:47 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Mick10]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6861
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
I'm with you there Mick10 did you you get my post that I send to you before mate?? grin smile
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