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#941698 - 29/01/2011 19:59 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: DeniseEm]
mscactus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/10/2005
Posts: 2240
Loc: Heatley QLD
Neil Roberts - Minister for Emergency services i think his title is but could be wrong on that. It was definitely him though and yes he said Sunday Morning.

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#941700 - 29/01/2011 20:01 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: DeniseEm]
mstropical Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/03/2010
Posts: 50
Loc: Port Douglas, Qld.
It's a worry tho, isn't it, when you've got the 6 o'clock News interview getting it so mixed up. For those people who don't follow cyclones like we do, it could be rather confusing, if not scary. Oh "heavens" it'll be here in the morning!!!

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#941706 - 29/01/2011 20:03 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: mstropical]
mstropical Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/03/2010
Posts: 50
Loc: Port Douglas, Qld.
mscactus, where's Douglas, Qld?

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#941707 - 29/01/2011 20:05 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: mstropical]
DeniseEm Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/02/2010
Posts: 1092
Loc: Cobar, NSW
Originally Posted By: Denise11
It's a worry tho, isn't it, when you've got the 6 o'clock News interview getting it so mixed up. For those people who don't follow cyclones like we do, it could be rather confusing, if not scary. Oh "heavens" it'll be here in the morning!!!


Not only that they had their focus set on Townsville/Innisfail when really noone knows where its going to go yet. If he dipped south or north there could be a lot of ppl getting caught out thinking it was headed to Townsville area.

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#941708 - 29/01/2011 20:05 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: mstropical]
james1977 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2009
Posts: 2946
Loc: collingwood park
Port Douglas I'd assume, beautiful part of Queensland. Give that poor bugger a break on telly who stuffed up, poor bastards been under a lot of stress in the last mnth.
_________________________
I hate winter

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#941710 - 29/01/2011 20:07 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: mscactus]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4553
Loc: Brisbane
Looking at the current position of Invest 90P (which has some nice convection devloping around the LLCC),a W track would take it North of Cairns but a WSW track would take it 10 degrees further South which would be somewhere around Bundaberg and a SW track would take it into NSW (most likely becoming a fish storm headed for NZ.

Given the ridging its unlikely to follow a SW track but is a WSW track a possibility?
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#941716 - 29/01/2011 20:10 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: james1977]
mstropical Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/03/2010
Posts: 50
Loc: Port Douglas, Qld.
I asked mscactus. I never presume anything.

I understand that people have been under heaps of stress recently, BUT if they are going on TV and giving out information to the public, they have to at least get their days/dates correct. I'd put a little smiley face here, but I don't know how.

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#941721 - 29/01/2011 20:12 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: mstropical]
Wet Feet Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 29/12/2008
Posts: 206
Loc: Townsville QLD
Douglas, QLD = Townsville suburb.

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#941722 - 29/01/2011 20:13 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: mstropical]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5373
Loc: Diamond Valley
The latest summary from Nadi has upgraded its development potential:

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 29/0841 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD09F CENTRE 1003HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2S
172.9E AT 290600 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON IR IMAGERY
WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 29
DEGREE CELCIUS.

ORGANISATION IS POOR. CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT IN THE PAST 12
HOURS. LLCC DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. SYSTEM LIES ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH
AND UNDER 250HPA RIDGE AXIS, IN MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 500HPA.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVE IT WESTWARDS
WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.
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#941723 - 29/01/2011 20:15 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Wet Feet]
james1977 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2009
Posts: 2946
Loc: collingwood park
At the end of the there only human, and mistakes can and will be made..
_________________________
I hate winter

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#941724 - 29/01/2011 20:15 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Wet Feet]
mstropical Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/03/2010
Posts: 50
Loc: Port Douglas, Qld.
Thanks. poke

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#941726 - 29/01/2011 20:17 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: mstropical]
Stormy1 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/10/2005
Posts: 1872

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#941727 - 29/01/2011 20:17 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: mscactus]
SupercellsGalore Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/11/2008
Posts: 125
Loc: Brisbane
Originally Posted By: mscactus
Neil Roberts - Minister for Emergency services i think his title is but could be wrong on that. It was definitely him though and yes he said Sunday Morning.


Yes, you're correct about who it was and his title. I think it may also have been a live cross - if so, it's not something you can do a 'take 2' for.

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#941728 - 29/01/2011 20:18 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Inclement Weather]
storm seeker Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2010
Posts: 227
Loc: Wardell, NSW, Australia
It is a possibility to have Invest 90P move in a general W/WSW'ly direction and the cyclone to be would end up around the Bundaberg/ Fraser Coast area.

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#941732 - 29/01/2011 20:19 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: mstropical]
Noname Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2011
Posts: 2104
this new cyclone is must eye on! It could bring huge rain band along the coast well into inland areas including nsw too! Canadian model agreed that rainfalls will be high enough to proceed another flood event? I assume its too hard to know what is going to happen because its only 5 days away
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Blank.

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#941747 - 29/01/2011 20:31 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Locke]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5373
Loc: Diamond Valley
Originally Posted By: Locke
Looking at the current position of Invest 90P (which has some nice convection devloping around the LLCC),a W track would take it North of Cairns but a WSW track would take it 10 degrees further South which would be somewhere around Bundaberg and a SW track would take it into NSW (most likely becoming a fish storm headed for NZ.

Given the ridging its unlikely to follow a SW track but is a WSW track a possibility?


Locke, did you use a protractor? WSW would take it around Mackay and SW would take it to Fraser Island.
_________________________
The original donut hole

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#941754 - 29/01/2011 20:36 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: james1977]
geekyStu Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/01/2005
Posts: 277
Loc: West End

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#941759 - 29/01/2011 20:38 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4553
Loc: Brisbane
A SW track denotes it loses 10 degrees of latitude for each 10 degrees west it travels. At 173 E it is roughly 20 degrees west of the Australian coast line at Fraser Island. Given the current latitude is 14.5S, Fraser Island would need to be at about 35S for it to be a SW track. Since Fraser is at about 25S this makes it a WSW track.

Unless theres something I'm missing?
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#941761 - 29/01/2011 20:39 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: mscactus]
Rainwoman_08 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/03/2008
Posts: 377
Loc: Katherine, NT
Minister Roberts is the minister for Department of Community Safety - all ES; Corrections, QPS, etc.

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#941766 - 29/01/2011 20:41 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Wet Wet Wet]
Donweather Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/01/2009
Posts: 152
Loc: Brisvegas
Originally Posted By: Wet Wet Wet
Cyclones are categorised by winds only - not pressure.

Ummmmm, what creates wind.....pressure my friend, pressure.

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