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#941771 - 29/01/2011 20:46 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Locke]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5373
Loc: Diamond Valley
Ha, I must be a 'flatearther', of course one has to take into account the curvature of the earth. poke
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#941772 - 29/01/2011 20:47 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Donweather]
wombat05 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 15/01/2011
Posts: 15
Loc: Queensland
New to forum. Question: Blowing a gale and absolutely pouring in Yeppoon - long way from Anthony! Anything to do with Anthony?
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#941776 - 29/01/2011 20:50 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Donweather]
CuNimJim Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/12/2005
Posts: 476
Loc: Whitfield, Cairns
Correction - pressure differential actually creates the wind - not the absolute pressure value so 1-0 to WWW


Edited by CuNimJim (29/01/2011 20:51)
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#941777 - 29/01/2011 20:50 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Locke]
Donweather Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/01/2009
Posts: 152
Loc: Brisvegas
Originally Posted By: Locke
A SW track denotes it loses 10 degrees of latitude for each 10 degrees west it travels. At 173 E it is roughly 20 degrees west of the Australian coast line at Fraser Island. Given the current latitude is 14.5S, Fraser Island would need to be at about 35S for it to be a SW track. Since Fraser is at about 25S this makes it a WSW track.

Unless theres something I'm missing?

Perhaps the earth isn't flat!!!

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#941778 - 29/01/2011 20:50 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Donweather]
mickyd Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/04/2008
Posts: 324
Loc: Mitchelton
Originally Posted By: Donweather
Originally Posted By: Wet Wet Wet
Cyclones are categorised by winds only - not pressure.

Ummmmm, what creates wind.....pressure my friend, pressure.


Yeah but the wind is determined by the pressure gradient (change in pressure over a distance) not just the lowest pressure. So a compact cyclone may not have a very low central pressure, but due to it's size the pressure gradient is sufficient enough to cause very strong wind.

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#941779 - 29/01/2011 20:51 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: wombat05]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5373
Loc: Diamond Valley
Welcome to the forum wombat05. No, that brisk breeze is the SE surge as a result of a high pressure ridge pushing up the coast from a high entering the Tasman Sea.
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#941781 - 29/01/2011 20:53 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Donweather]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4553
Loc: Brisbane
Originally Posted By: Donweather
Originally Posted By: Locke
A SW track denotes it loses 10 degrees of latitude for each 10 degrees west it travels. At 173 E it is roughly 20 degrees west of the Australian coast line at Fraser Island. Given the current latitude is 14.5S, Fraser Island would need to be at about 35S for it to be a SW track. Since Fraser is at about 25S this makes it a WSW track.

Unless theres something I'm missing?

Perhaps the earth isn't flat!!!


That must be it :-P
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#941782 - 29/01/2011 20:53 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Inclement Weather]
windblown Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/03/2010
Posts: 951
Loc: Gooseponds Mackay
IW >>oh thanks for that..I was wondering what a SE surge was..it sure is blustery
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#941784 - 29/01/2011 20:56 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Donweather]
windblown Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/03/2010
Posts: 951
Loc: Gooseponds Mackay
Originally Posted By: Donweather
Originally Posted By: Wet Wet Wet
Cyclones are categorised by winds only - not pressure.

Ummmmm, what creates wind.....pressure my friend, pressure.



or baked beans....sorry I couldnt help it...it was too good to leave... crazy
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#941785 - 29/01/2011 20:57 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: mickyd]
Donweather Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/01/2009
Posts: 152
Loc: Brisvegas
Originally Posted By: mickyd
Yeah but the wind is determined by the pressure gradient (change in pressure over a distance) not just the lowest pressure. So a compact cyclone may not have a very low central pressure, but due to it's size the pressure gradient is sufficient enough to cause very strong wind.

I think we're all saying the same thing here. My point was is that you can't have Cat 5 cyclone with central pressure at 990hPa.

A Cat 5 TC needs very deep pressure which due to the surrounding atmosphere, which is at much higher pressure causes a substantial pressure differential, or gradient and thus creates extremely destructive winds.

Granted one can get very strong winds if a low cradles up against a high pressure system, and we see this all the time, but that doesn't mean it's a Cat 5 cyclone. My point still stands. One must have deep low pressure for a Cat 5 cyclone to occur.

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#941789 - 29/01/2011 21:01 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Donweather]
TC Poncho Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/01/2010
Posts: 2199
Loc: Point Cartwright, Sunny Coast,...
Originally Posted By: Donweather
Originally Posted By: mickyd
Yeah but the wind is determined by the pressure gradient (change in pressure over a distance) not just the lowest pressure. So a compact cyclone may not have a very low central pressure, but due to it's size the pressure gradient is sufficient enough to cause very strong wind.

I think we're all saying the same thing here. My point was is that you can't have Cat 5 cyclone with central pressure at 990hPa.

A Cat 5 TC needs very deep pressure which due to the surrounding atmosphere, which is at much higher pressure causes a substantial pressure differential, or gradient and thus creates extremely destructive winds.

Granted one can get very strong winds if a low cradles up against a high pressure system, and we see this all the time, but that doesn't mean it's a Cat 5 cyclone. My point still stands. One must have deep low pressure for a Cat 5 cyclone to occur.


Well put. Here Here!
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#941790 - 29/01/2011 21:01 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: TC Poncho]
TC Poncho Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/01/2010
Posts: 2199
Loc: Point Cartwright, Sunny Coast,...
Information Number 1 on a Tropical Low issued by the Vanuatu Meteorological Service,
Port Vila at 7:04pm VUT Saturday 29 January 2011.

At 5:00pm local time today, a Tropical Low (1001 hPa) was located near 13.2S 174.3E.
Position poor. System located outside the Vanuatu Tropical Cyclone Tracking Map,
about 710 KM east northeast of Pentecost. The system is slowly moving, but
expected to take a westward track. The Potential for the system to intensify
into a tropical cyclone as well as move to the northern or central islands
of Vanuatu is moderate.

Forecast Positions
Date and Time Position Intensity
+06 hours (11pm, 29 Jan) 13.5S, 173.4E 25 KTS (45 KM/HR)
+12 hours (5am, 30 Jan) 13.8S, 172.7E 30 KTS (55 KM/HR)
+18 hours (11am, 30 Jan) 14.0S, 171.9E 30 KTS (55 KM/HR)
+24 hours (5pm, 30 Jan) 14.1S, 171.1E 30 KTS (55 KM/HR)
+36 hours (5am, 31 Jan) 14.3S, 169.4E 40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+48 hours (5pm, 31 Jan) 14.5S, 167.3E 40 KTS (75 KM/HR)

Heavy rainfall is forecast to affect Vanuatu by late Sunday or Monday. Seas are
rough over the central, channel and southern waters, and a marine strong
wind warning has been issued for these areas. Seas will become very rough
with heavy swells by late Sunday or Monday. The National Disaster Management
Office (NDMO) has advised that there is currently no threat to the islands
of Vanuatu, but that people must be prepared to take precautionay measures
should the situation changes.

The Vanuatu Meteorological Service will issue the next information by 6am
tomorrow morning or earlier should the situation changes. People throughout
northern and central Vanuatu should listen to Radio Outlets to
get the latest information on this system.



Edited by TC Poncho (29/01/2011 21:04)
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#941793 - 29/01/2011 21:04 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Chris Stumer]
Leebie3 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 47
Loc: Mt Sheridan, Cairns
Originally Posted By: Chris Stumer
here is a link to the pre-1970s cyclone season, there is strong possibility of a repeat of 1893 judging from the 4 day outlook.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pre-1970_Southern_Hemisphere_tropical_cyclone_seasons


1893??

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#941800 - 29/01/2011 21:07 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Leebie3]
Wet Wet Wet Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2008
Posts: 2332
Loc: Mackay, Qld
Pressure can be used a a ROUGH guide to determine the category of a cyclone, but ultimately the intensity of Australian cyclones ARE based on maximum wind gusts.
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#941808 - 29/01/2011 21:11 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Wet Wet Wet]
TC Poncho Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/01/2010
Posts: 2199
Loc: Point Cartwright, Sunny Coast,...
Originally Posted By: Wet Wet Wet
Pressure can be used a a ROUGH guide to determine the category of a cyclone, but ultimately the intensity of Australian cyclones ARE based on maximum wind gusts.


yes thats true, but what DW and others are saying is that you cant have the wind speed without the pressure differential.
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#941810 - 29/01/2011 21:12 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: mstropical]
mscactus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/10/2005
Posts: 2240
Loc: Heatley QLD
Originally Posted By: Denise11
mscactus, where's Douglas, Qld?


Sorry Denise was afk... Its a suburb in Townsville, out near the hospital.

Now under Cyclone warning. Will post Advice 6.


Edited by mscactus (29/01/2011 21:13)

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#941811 - 29/01/2011 21:12 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: TC Poncho]
RWM's Daughter Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/12/2010
Posts: 1125
Loc: North Lakes, Brisbane QLD
FYI folks the first WARNING has just been issued for Anthony!
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#941813 - 29/01/2011 21:13 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: RWM's Daughter]
mscactus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/10/2005
Posts: 2240
Loc: Heatley QLD
IDQP0005
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 6
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 7:58pm EST on Saturday the 29th of January 2011

A Cyclone WARNING has been declared for coastal and island communities from
Lucinda to Proserpine.

A Cyclone WATCH is now current for coastal and island communities from Innisfail
to Lucinda and Proserpine to Saint Lawrence.

At 7:00 pm EST Tropical Cyclone Anthony, Category 1 was estimated to be
830 kilometres east northeast of Townsville and 750 kilometres northeast of
Bowen.

Tropical Cyclone Anthony is currently moving southwest and is expected to
continue moving in this direction. It may slightly intensify as it approaches
the Queensland coast.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS are expected to develop about coastal and island
communities close to the cyclone centre as it approaches the coast early Monday
morning.

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS are expected to develop about coastal and island communities
between Innisfail and St Lawrence late Sunday.

As the cyclone crosses/approaches the coast abnormally high tides are expected
between Townsville and Bowen. Large waves are likely along the beachfront.

HEAVY RAINFALL with LOCAL FLOODING is expected to develop about the coast and
adjacent inland near and to the south of the cyclone, extending as far south as
Sarina, as it approaches and crosses the coast overnight Sunday.

People between Lucinda and Proserpine should immediately commence or continue
preparations, especially securing boats and property.
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au]
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage].

People in remaining areas between Innisfail and St Lawrence, and adjacent inland
should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat
increases.
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au]
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage].


Details of Tropical Cyclone Anthony at 7:00 pm EST:

.Centre located near...... 15.9 degrees South 153.8 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... slow moving
.Wind gusts near centre... 95 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 996 hectoPascals


Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm EST Saturday 29 January.

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#941816 - 29/01/2011 21:14 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: RWM's Daughter]
Donweather Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/01/2009
Posts: 152
Loc: Brisvegas
Originally Posted By: RWM's Daughter
FYI folks the first WARNING has just been issued for Anthony!

I note that JTWC have dropped TC Anthony all together now....not even interested.

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#941817 - 29/01/2011 21:15 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Wet Wet Wet]
Unsettled Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/03/2010
Posts: 220
Loc: Trinity Beach
Originally Posted By: Wet Wet Wet
Pressure can be used a a ROUGH guide to determine the category of a cyclone, but ultimately the intensity of Australian cyclones ARE based on maximum wind gusts.

Completely true, and was the original point made. Can we stop arguing over nothing please?
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