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#944104 - 30/01/2011 18:39 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Dusty Dervish]
SupercellsGalore Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/11/2008
Posts: 125
Loc: Brisbane
Originally Posted By: Dusty Dervish
"From 17 August 2010, the Bureau of Meteorology will no longer run the GASP, LAPS, TLAPS and Meso-LAPS family of computer forecasting models.
A new computer forecasting model (ACCESS) will be implemented from July 2010 as the replacement. The performance of the ACCESS model represents a significant leap forward in terms of forecasting abilities over the Australian Region".

'They've picked them (EC) as an accurate source to show the australian public' - I dont think so.


EC has consistently scored no.1 in model skill stats (for MSLP and 500hpa) for a couple of decades now. This is also backed up by a lot of anecdotal evidence over the years. But as is sometimes pointed out, this doesn't mean it doesn't get trumped by other model/s sometimes. Behind EC in the skill stats is UK, JMA and GFS (often neck and neck) and ACCESS-G respectively. ACCESS-G's cause isn't helped much by it's low resolution of around 80km compared to many other global models (e.g. EC's 16km). It's one of the reasons it tends to be reluctant in capturing TC's. Having said that, it's still a lot better than its predecessor, GASP.

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#944125 - 30/01/2011 18:52 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Ultramarine]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5373
Loc: Diamond Valley
Sorry, Ultramarine, I can't access my photobucket account to upload the image.
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#944136 - 30/01/2011 18:57 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Ultramarine]
Adam Ant Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/10/2003
Posts: 1075
Loc: West Toowoomba
Originally Posted By: Ultramarine
Inclement Weather - could you please give the link for that info about 15th Feb SEQ. I can't imagine anything bigger than Yasi - and yes, most people I know have their nerves stretched right now - but forewarned is better, many thanks.


Try this

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/e...=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

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#944156 - 30/01/2011 19:07 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Adam Ant]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5373
Loc: Diamond Valley


Edited by Inclement Weather (30/01/2011 19:09)
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#944189 - 30/01/2011 19:14 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Ultramarine Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 28/01/2011
Posts: 27
Thankyou both, Inclement Weather & Adam Ant. Yes, shattering.

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#944215 - 30/01/2011 19:23 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Inclement Weather]
redbucket Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 324
Loc: Regency Downs, Lockyer Valley
Originally Posted By: Inclement Weather


That's a pretty sobering prediction for SEQ. Hopefully plenty changes between now and then and it doesn't eventuate.

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#944216 - 30/01/2011 19:23 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Ultramarine]
LittleDavey83 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2005
Posts: 725
Loc: Coral Cove, QLD
I believe that GFS may have had Yasi lining up SE QLD back when it first picked it up, didn't it (if my memory serves me rightly)?

Certainly something to keep an eye on...and as with Yasi, highly disturbing if it comes off...

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#944260 - 30/01/2011 19:36 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: LittleDavey83]
TC Poncho Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/01/2010
Posts: 2199
Loc: Point Cartwright, Sunny Coast,...
from what i have seen of the up coming uppers, theres still a possibility of a SE curve at tau60 which might make Yasi go passed or over Hervey Bay.
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#944264 - 30/01/2011 19:38 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: TC Poncho]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8802
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
Stu Ostro (an american meteorologist) posted this on his FB about 4 hours ago:

"does not like that two tropical cyclones are headed for beleaguered Queensland, Australia, the second of which is large in size and is expected to intensify to the equivalent strength of a strong hurricane."

With an attached image showing the 2 systems.
I've been following his page for a while (he mainly comments on the US weather and found his stuff very useful and informative) and considering he's taking time to talk about us, it's gotta be serious.

Not sure what 'beleaguered' means though

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#944267 - 30/01/2011 19:41 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Long Road Home]
james1977 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2009
Posts: 2946
Loc: collingwood park
Ask him his.predictions er lol
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#944268 - 30/01/2011 19:41 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Long Road Home]
Stevo59 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/01/2009
Posts: 1037
Loc: Cairns
Originally Posted By: eternal-rain
Stu Ostro (an american meteorologist) posted this on his FB about 4 hours ago:

"does not like that two tropical cyclones are headed for beleaguered Queensland, Australia, the second of which is large in size and is expected to intensify to the equivalent strength of a strong hurricane."

With an attached image showing the 2 systems.
I've been following his page for a while (he mainly comments on the US weather and found his stuff very useful and informative) and considering he's taking time to talk about us, it's gotta be serious.

Not sure what 'beleaguered' means though


Stu is taking about Anthony and Yasi.
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"Some people are weather wise, but most are otherwise”. Benjamin Franklin.

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#944277 - 30/01/2011 19:46 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Inclement Weather]
SGB Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/04/2010
Posts: 221
Loc: Canberra
Originally Posted By: Inclement Weather
I just saw the latest extended GFS. It's like an addiction, I know it's doing my head in and it's bad for my nerves. But the next 'monster' makes Yasi look just large. The real monster that GFS has progged to hit SEQ on the 15th Feb looks like a rare annular TC which just sinks slowly south without any steering influence after forming south of PNG - possibly when the MJO and monsoon trough becomes active again. We'll all be shattered if this comes off...


Just took a look myself IW and damn it's scary. I know it's very far off and anything could happen, but we were all saying that 10 days ago when 2-3 cyclones were progged to give QLD a scare. 1 of those, Wilma, thankfully veered south, however the other 2 will/are affecting QLD.

So that being said, my confidence level with extended GFS has increased somewhat, coupled with the fact that the next MJO will pass over the maritime continent around that time.
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#944279 - 30/01/2011 19:47 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Stevo59]
BigBen Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/03/2006
Posts: 248
Loc: Home GlenHuntly Work Richmond
beleaguered means under siege. (he might have seen the Steven Segal beer ads lol)
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You want a prediction about the weather, you're asking the wrong Phil. I'll give you a winter prediction: It's gonna be cold, it's gonna be grey, and it's gonna last you for the rest of your life.

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#944282 - 30/01/2011 19:48 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: TC Poncho]
H'Bay Qld Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/01/2011
Posts: 136
Originally Posted By: TC Poncho
from what i have seen of the up coming uppers, theres still a possibility of a SE curve at tau60 which might make Yasi go passed or over Hervey Bay.


OMG! Are you kidding me? What strength would you say Poncho?
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Hervey Bay, Whale Watching Capital of Australia and Gateway to Magestic Fraser Island

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#944315 - 30/01/2011 19:59 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Ultramarine]
Ultramarine Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 28/01/2011
Posts: 27
So - we have baby Anthony, mother Yasi and then Father to come. Thankyou all for making this such an informative site - sometimes silly submissions, but we need light relief don't we - the resilient Australian spirit always. Being a 'reader', not a useful contributor (novice) I'll follow the next couple of weeks without submitting and I wish all of us in affected areas safety and speedy recovery X

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#944354 - 30/01/2011 20:13 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: caffeinated]
SupercellsGalore Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/11/2008
Posts: 125
Loc: Brisbane
Originally Posted By: caffeinated
OMG that is the most awesome looking face I've seen in a cyclone satellite image

I'm assuming it was attempted humour but if you look closely, the satpic image posted just before it was taken at exactly the same time but had no "face" in Yasi. Also, as someone else pointed out, the white latitude line is obscured under the face (which is impossible unless it was edited because the imagery is designed to overlay the latitude lines over the satpic imagery). Anyway probably flogging a dead horse here.

At least if Yasi keeps up speed on a direct track towards the QLD coast, it should reduce the amount of uncertainty about where and when it might hit as opposed to a TC that slowly drifts towards the coast at an angle.

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#944371 - 30/01/2011 20:18 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: H'Bay Qld]
TC Poncho Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/01/2010
Posts: 2199
Loc: Point Cartwright, Sunny Coast,...
Originally Posted By: H'Bay Qld
Originally Posted By: TC Poncho
from what i have seen of the up coming uppers, theres still a possibility of a SE curve at tau60 which might make Yasi go passed or over Hervey Bay.


OMG! Are you kidding me? What strength would you say Poncho?


yeah small percentage chance, depends if the upper ridge breaks down off the SE coast and a trough/low forms splitting the ridge in 2. I think I saw this in the CMC 200hPa chart this arvo.

If Yazi is at cat5, it will do what it wants anyway. Uncertain times ahead.
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#944398 - 30/01/2011 20:32 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: TC Poncho]
TC Poncho Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/01/2010
Posts: 2199
Loc: Point Cartwright, Sunny Coast,...
Originally Posted By: TC Poncho
Originally Posted By: H'Bay Qld
Originally Posted By: TC Poncho
from what i have seen of the up coming uppers, theres still a possibility of a SE curve at tau60 which might make Yasi go passed or over Hervey Bay.


OMG! Are you kidding me? What strength would you say Poncho?


yeah small percentage chance, depends if the upper ridge breaks down off the SE coast and a trough/low forms splitting the ridge in 2. I think I saw this in the CMC 200hPa chart this arvo.

If Yazi is at cat5, it will do what it wants anyway. Uncertain times ahead.


Oh yeah, intensity. Hard to say at this far out but if it did, i would assume cat3 at the very least but would prepare for the worst if it turns your way.
_________________________
To purchase fine photographic art please visit my website http://peterperreauxphoto.silhouetteapp.com

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#944412 - 30/01/2011 20:37 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: TC Poncho]
twinmama Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/02/2008
Posts: 91
Loc: Craignish
Another Hervey Bay person watching with interest. I noticed the latest TC Anthony map has him even lower then first thought (around Bowen) - I'm wondering now too how low Yasi may come.

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#944480 - 30/01/2011 21:07 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: twinmama]
jordvegas Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/01/2010
Posts: 56
Loc: Gladstone, QLD
Noo a hervey bay landing would be disastrous! Bundaberg, Gympie, Maryborough and Brisbane would all go under again.. at least everything further north will be spared. Fingers crossed!

Also we here at Gladstone are willing to take it.. gladstone is super bad luck for weather (we haven't had a thunderstorm in years) so it would probably approach cat 5 and turn into just a breeze before it hits.. I mean we scared away hamish in 08 frown

Speaking of which it's just starting to rain here and it's VERY windy, 70kmph winds according to BOM.
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B. Environmental Science @ Griffith University, Brisbane.

Home grown Gladstonite & Uni semesterly resident of the lost city brislantis.

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