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#887843 - 04/10/2010 21:48 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Mathew]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6861
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
My bet is 10 or 15 Tropical Cyclone we will see this coming up summer and autumn 2010/2011.


Edited by Mathew (04/10/2010 21:56)
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Rs tl 2018-19 Wet Season. > 2018 tl 01/01/19 903.0 mm -
feb-2019 month 883.5 mm Mar 173.4 mm April 7.8 mm May 29.1 mm> June 1.8 mm
(07 06-19_ 03:47 pm) Yr 1297 mm / Wy rain 1.2mm month 1.2 mm/ 0.0 mm

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#887844 - 04/10/2010 21:49 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Mathew]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23724
Loc: Townsville
Like i said above i dont trust BOM outlooks for cyclones, its only a forcast, and they cant even forcast a week ahead without some great degree of error. Every time they forcast a big season its a flop. Ill sit here and wait until the uppers start to agree for cyclongenisis in a few months.
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#887849 - 04/10/2010 22:01 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Dawgggg]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6861
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
I for got to add in this coming up Spring before as well. grin wink


Edited by Mathew (04/10/2010 22:02)
_________________________
Rs tl 2018-19 Wet Season. > 2018 tl 01/01/19 903.0 mm -
feb-2019 month 883.5 mm Mar 173.4 mm April 7.8 mm May 29.1 mm> June 1.8 mm
(07 06-19_ 03:47 pm) Yr 1297 mm / Wy rain 1.2mm month 1.2 mm/ 0.0 mm

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#887854 - 04/10/2010 22:20 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Mathew]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2984
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
What are all these people with such high hopes for the coming season going to do if it turns out to be a total flop?
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#887856 - 04/10/2010 22:24 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: CoastalStorm22]
drivenunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2010
Posts: 2139
Loc: Smithfield, Cairns
Not much we can do, but enjoy the excitement and anticipation of a few wild weather events in the coming months! Makes getting out of bed worth it. Makes tomorrow alright! Because 'Tomorrow is looking bright!'
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Bring on the rain!!!

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#887858 - 04/10/2010 22:25 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: CoastalStorm22]
Things Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 8400
Loc: Blair Athol, SA
Nothing, because it's weather and it's never totally predictable poke

I know some people will be different though poke

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#887872 - 04/10/2010 23:21 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Things]
nocturnal1 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 04/03/2010
Posts: 1085
Loc: Murwillumbah, NE NSW
A) Wait for the next season, 2011-2012!! And comment on every drip and drop received in the meantime. grin wink

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#887873 - 04/10/2010 23:24 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Dawgggg]
Squeako da Magnifico. Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/06/2005
Posts: 3197
Loc: Caboolture, SE QLD
I don't know what your mental state of mind with your nightly drinking binges are Ted. But, I can't ever recall the BOM ever forecasting more than 4 cyclones in the coral sea before let alone 6. Maybe, you are confused with some other long range forecaster who have predicted a bumper cyclone season in the past?
_________________________
March 2012 rainfall: 0.0mm (avg: 158.1mm)
2012 Rainfall YTD: 1016.0mm (avg: 1385.6mm)
2011 Total: 1734.6mm

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#887875 - 04/10/2010 23:36 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Squeako da Magnifico.]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4553
Loc: Brisbane
Considering the average number of crossings in QLD each year is about 1.3 (if I recall correctly) it is a fairly bullish call by BOM. Keeping in mind of course they are not actually predicting 6 crossings - only 6 in the coral sea.
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#887877 - 04/10/2010 23:47 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Locke]
drivenunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2010
Posts: 2139
Loc: Smithfield, Cairns
Ba-Bum! This topic just got a whole bunch more serious!!!
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Bring on the rain!!!

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#887907 - 05/10/2010 07:50 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Locke]
Afroboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/12/2005
Posts: 1719
Loc: Stratford, Cairns
Originally Posted By: Locke
Keeping in mind of course they are not actually predicting 6 crossings - only 6 in the coral sea.

+1
My thoughts as well. As it is each year, it's a sit and wait scenario.
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2017 YTD: 740.5mm

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#888036 - 05/10/2010 18:17 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Afroboy]
Rainy Night Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2004
Posts: 4267
Loc: Jindalee, Brisbane
The following quote from E-J in the FNQ thread should also be of interest here:-

"I don't know if anybody has mentioned this in this thread previously, however the last time the soi was this high in August-September was in 1917 when it reached 30+

The ensuing wet season in 1918 saw a 1 in 100 year flood event and a monster cyclone crossing the coast near Innisfail. With a number of catastrophic floods over that year."

It's interesting also to note that Mackay bore the brunt of a catastrophic cyclone (Cat 4/5), well known in this region, just a month before the February 1918 event in the Innisfail area.

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#888044 - 05/10/2010 18:30 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Rainy Night]
nitso Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/11/2006
Posts: 4236
Loc: Kirwan
Great points made EJ thanks for sharing RN.

Models are still favouring unsettled surface conditions for the NE Coral Sea with either a trough or weak surface LOW to develop.

ACCESS G has a LOW developing at around 170E and GFS one further east, both models have them developing to either a weak TC or pretty strong LOW and pushing SE early to mid next week. While it's a little way east of the Coral Sea it is quite interesting to see this early. I think the GFS scenario the LOW is a mid lat cold cored feature but the ACCESS G one looks more like a strong tropical LOW ???

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#888070 - 05/10/2010 19:40 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: nitso]
Occo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/12/2007
Posts: 298
Loc: Mackay, Qld
Just a question- but what area of QLD's coastline would have to be the most prone to cyclones? I know that in WA they all seem to head towards the Pilbara area- Port Headland/ Karratha etc.
Im still predicting 3 coastal crossings this season for QLD- a Cat 3- 4 hitting somewhere between Ingham and Ayr, another Cat 3- 4 hitting around the Mackay/ Whitsundays area, and a Cat 2- 3 hitting around the Wide bay area.

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#888074 - 05/10/2010 19:54 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Occo]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23724
Loc: Townsville
I believe its north of Cape tribulation, thats my opinion anyway.
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#888081 - 05/10/2010 20:14 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Dawgggg]
Things Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 8400
Loc: Blair Athol, SA
Heres the track of cyclones for the last 50 years



Spaghetti anyone? poke

Maybe try since 1993



WA looks like it comes in pretty close


Edited by Things (05/10/2010 20:14)

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#888083 - 05/10/2010 20:17 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Dawgggg]
storm freak Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/10/2006
Posts: 924
Loc: cairns
Can sense the anticipation and excitement growing in this forum lol. Nitso is it possible to get a link to the models, I can't find it on bom site. Had a read of the latest tropical climate note, this is part of it.

The MJO comes alive

In late August, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) moved eastwards into Maritime Continent longitudes for the first time since May, and contributed to the development of several tropical storms in the North West Pacific. Other than that particular event, MJO activity has generally been weak and erratic.

Over the past couple of days, an active MJO has begun to develop in the eastern Indian Ocean, where warm SSTs are assisting the process.

Guidance surveyed by the Bureau are swinging into agreement, with the consensus anticipating the MJO to move into Australian longitudes over the next two weeks, with the second and third weeks of October tipped to be a wet period for northern Australia.

There is increased potential for Tropical Cyclogenesis in the Bay of Bengal and South China Sea over the next week or two, as the northern hemisphere monsoon continues to migrate southwards. The risk of TC formation in the southern hemisphere is considered low, being so early in the season.
**********************************************************************

Chance of TC formation, as expected, remains low however, with the MJO anticipated to be quite active over our region the chances of the low that nitso is talking about developing into something would have to be increased. Not saying it will be a cyclone but will be interesting to see what pans out. all im hoping for is more above average rain while MJO is present in our region...Loving being part of a possibly historic event.
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#888085 - 05/10/2010 20:20 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Dawgggg]
Wet Wet Wet Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2008
Posts: 2332
Loc: Mackay, Qld
Personally I would say anywhere from Mackay northwards is at greatest risk. Fortunately/Unfortunately (however you see it) Mackay itself is apparently most vulnerable to an impact of a Severe Tropical Cyclone as we not only have a large population, but many of the dwellings here are quite old (more so than those in Townsville and Cairns), therefore are more likely to result in a debris storm.

Here’s a couple pics from the BoM site:








Adding to the comments made earlier…..3 cyclones made landfall on Queensland during the 1917/18 season. The two previously mentioned (Category 5 that hit Innisfail in March, and the Category 4/5 that crossed 20km north of Mackay), but also another Category 1/2 cyclone struck about 50km north of Mackay.

Although the category 1/2 cyclone I just mentioned seems somewhat insignificant compared to the other 2 monsters, it’s worth noting it made landfall on December 14 – quite early in the season. Not only that, normally you’d expect the early season cyclones to hit the coast further north.

And just adding to the Cat 4/5 cyclone that hit Mackay, it’s probably one of the largest cyclones to have impacted Queensland in recorded history. It caused significant structural damage to houses more than 300km south from where the eye made landfall.
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#888086 - 05/10/2010 20:20 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Things]
Myak-04 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/01/2010
Posts: 848
Loc: Mooroobool, Cairns
@ Things
Hmmmmm, not so much Spaghetti, as a kid attacking the map of Australia with silly string poke.


The red line that cuts through the whole of Australia is interesting. Does anyone know which cyclone that was?

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#888087 - 05/10/2010 20:24 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: storm freak]
homehillrains Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/08/2010
Posts: 226
Loc: Home Hill
Originally Posted By: storm freak
Can sense the anticipation and excitement growing in this forum lol. Nitso is it possible to get a link to the models, I can't find it on bom site. Had a read of the latest tropical climate note, this is part of it.

yeah storm freak i was gunna ask for links to these models as i cant find them either

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