NOTICE!

The Weatherzone forum has now closed and is in read-only mode until the 1st of November when it will close permanently. We would like to thank everyone who has contributed over the past 18 years.

If you would like to continue the discussion you can follow us on Facebook and Twitter or participate in discussions at AusWeather or Ski.com.au forums.

Page 248 of 318 < 1 2 ... 246 247 248 249 250 ... 317 318 >
Topic Options
#968910 - 04/03/2011 06:55 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Wet Wet Wet]
Firepac Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2007
Posts: 1179
Loc: Proserpine
Originally Posted By: Wet Wet Wet
Originally Posted By: Firepac
Interesting..... EC's latest (non ensemble) run seems to drop the idea of a low/TC in the Coral Sea


Nah the latest EC still maintains the presence of the Tropical Low, just without the same intensity as previously forecast. EC has it hovering off the coast of Cardwell embedded in the Monsoon Trough with a nice area of convergence centralised around the Herbert/Burdekin region resulting in moderate to heavy falls.


WWW - where are you seeing that... I'm looking at THIS and can't see what you are refering to...probably just my inexperience though!!

Top
#968912 - 04/03/2011 07:00 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Firepac]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19046
Loc: The Beach.
EC has nothing until mid next week now when a broad area of low pressure shows up. Interestingly it seems to be aligning more with GFS regarding a GoC low however movement is different.
_________________________


Top
#968913 - 04/03/2011 07:01 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: ColdFront]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23724
Loc: Townsville
It doesnt matterwhat EC has this morning, i just texted nitso and he said it doesnt matter, and to look at the ensembles.
_________________________
2015/16 Storms
13 Storms 2500km travelled

Top
#968919 - 04/03/2011 07:27 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Firepac]
Wet Wet Wet Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2008
Posts: 2332
Loc: Mackay, Qld
Originally Posted By: Firepac
Originally Posted By: Wet Wet Wet
Originally Posted By: Firepac
Interesting..... EC's latest (non ensemble) run seems to drop the idea of a low/TC in the Coral Sea


Nah the latest EC still maintains the presence of the Tropical Low, just without the same intensity as previously forecast. EC has it hovering off the coast of Cardwell embedded in the Monsoon Trough with a nice area of convergence centralised around the Herbert/Burdekin region resulting in moderate to heavy falls.


WWW - where are you seeing that... I'm looking at THIS and can't see what you are refering to...probably just my inexperience though!!


Yeah see that chart of EC is in low resolution – without checking probably 50km at best. Therefore to the untrained eye is much harder to pinpoint the presence and central location of Tropical Lows. Also that chart shows isobars in 5hPa increments. Nonetheless, you can clearly decipher the distinct circular curvature of the isobars off the North Tropical Coast indicating the presence of the Tropical Low. Then when you take a look at a higher resolution version of EC such as the BoMs Marine Winds (3 days and beyond as the first 2 days are based on ACCESS), the presence of the Tropical Low is easily seen lurking off the NTC this weekend within the monsoon trough.
_________________________
Mackay Weather Chasers

Top
#968920 - 04/03/2011 07:27 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Dawgggg]
FNQ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/05/2007
Posts: 3029
Loc: Clifton Beach, Cairns - Queens...
The EC ensemble shows that from Sunday onwards and particularly Tuesday we will have a system (yet to be named) on our door step. CMC Ensemble has the same system moving off to the poles. GFS ensemble- nothing.

The models still in large disagreement at this stage.

Top
#968926 - 04/03/2011 07:37 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: FNQ]
MRF Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/02/2011
Posts: 353
Loc: Gladstone QLD
Anyone know if EC's Rainfall and MSLP Charts are based on an ensemble arrangement or just individual runs?
ECMWF Rainfall and MSLP


Edited by MRF (04/03/2011 07:41)

Top
#968928 - 04/03/2011 07:41 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: MRF]
FNQ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/05/2007
Posts: 3029
Loc: Clifton Beach, Cairns - Queens...
MRF- imo they appear to be individual runs and not ensemble.

Top
#968929 - 04/03/2011 07:45 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: FNQ]
MRF Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/02/2011
Posts: 353
Loc: Gladstone QLD
Yeah thats what I was thinking, would be interesting to see the rainfall projections based on the ensemble set up, could be very different to these individual runs.

Top
#968931 - 04/03/2011 07:46 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: MRF]
JoshweatherNOW. Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/01/2011
Posts: 261
Loc: Cairns, Bayview
so even though EC dropped the low/cyclone possiblity, we shouldnt believe it(Trav)????
_________________________
rain, rain, come again?

Top
#968937 - 04/03/2011 07:59 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: JoshweatherNOW.]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23724
Loc: Townsville
Hasnt dropped the low at all, just doesnt develop it as much. I would say this afternoons run will have it developing again, seems to be a pattern with EC haha. Develops it, doesnt develop it, develops it, doesnt develop it poke

Cyclone by sunday still a moderate possiblity. Notice the bureau didnt drop it from the extended outlook.


Edited by Trav Dog (04/03/2011 07:59)
_________________________
2015/16 Storms
13 Storms 2500km travelled

Top
#968940 - 04/03/2011 08:05 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Dawgggg]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23724
Loc: Townsville
Even if this low does not develop into a tropical cyclone. All the ingrediants are there for a massive flood event from cairns to mackay.
Strong SE SURGE + Strengthening monsoon trough + Developing tropical low = the potential for some massive falls. Im not talking 100-200mm in 48 hours, some areas closer to the southern side of the low, and near the highest point of convergence with the monsoon trough, tropical low and Surge could see rainfall totals exceeding 300mm in 24-26 hours.
The only problem is though, as the tropical low develops, which it may.....or may not....but if it does develop, the rainfall will then become much more focused around the low itself, especially once the initial surge pushes through, moderate to heavy falls will still fall from cairns too mackay, but around the monsoon trough and low itself, we are going to see some awesome rainfall totals.

This event reminds me off The 2008 mackay floods, and the 1998 townsville floods. Both had a stationary low
mackay - low developed right on top of them as the SE surge reached the area, and the low remained stationary for a few hours.
Townsville - Ex cyclone sid/tropical low sat roughly 60 kilometres to the North east of the city for a day, maintaining heavy rain areas onto the coast south of the system.

So regardless of whether this low develops, its going to be a interesting, and possible bang to the end of the wet season, for some areas.
_________________________
2015/16 Storms
13 Storms 2500km travelled

Top
#968941 - 04/03/2011 08:08 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Dawgggg]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6861
Loc: Townsville, Queensland

This what the BoM think at the moment this developing may develop maybe more into a 998hpa or 995hpa when they update the next one.


Edited by Mathew (04/03/2011 08:14)
_________________________
Rs tl 2018-19 Wet Season. > 2018 tl 01/01/19 903.0 mm -
feb-2019 month 883.5 mm Mar 173.4 mm April 7.8 mm May 29.1 mm> June 1.8 mm
(07 06-19_ 03:47 pm) Yr 1297 mm / Wy rain 1.2mm month 1.2 mm/ 0.0 mm

Top
#968942 - 04/03/2011 08:12 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Mathew]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25465
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
you only have to look at the bom's wind chart model to see where ec has the weak low. weak circulation stalling just north of townsville then dying out. but we are still seeing no consistancy in the models at all and while we are looking a decent rain event across the north starting sunday its just impossible to tell what is going to happen.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2019 total - 27.8mm (21.2mm)
July 2019 total - 0.0mm (14.9mm)
2019 Yearly total to date - 2049.9mm (1129mm)

Top
#968952 - 04/03/2011 08:22 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Wet Wet Wet]
Firepac Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2007
Posts: 1179
Loc: Proserpine
Thanks WWW - great info, never considered the resolution...all part of the learning curve laugh

Top
#968966 - 04/03/2011 08:51 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Firepac]
Anundsjo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/01/2011
Posts: 134
Loc: Edmonton (foot of mountains)
Does consistency in the different models really matter when EC quite clearly out performs all the other models? Wouldn't it be more important that EC itself is showing consistency?

Top
#968968 - 04/03/2011 09:02 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Anundsjo]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25465
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
when it came to yasi under a relativly easy steering influence all models were in agreement on a wsw track crossing between cairns and mackay as a strong cyclone a week out. the bom were able to then able to alert authorities well in advance.
this time situation is totally different with so many different scenarios, and the difference in model outcomes reflects this.
i dont like to rely on just one model.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2019 total - 27.8mm (21.2mm)
July 2019 total - 0.0mm (14.9mm)
2019 Yearly total to date - 2049.9mm (1129mm)

Top
#968974 - 04/03/2011 09:18 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Anundsjo]
nitso Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/11/2006
Posts: 4236
Loc: Kirwan
Originally Posted By: Anundsjo
Does consistency in the different models really matter when EC quite clearly out performs all the other models? Wouldn't it be more important that EC itself is showing consistency?


Fair point, EC does outperform the others and yes we do need to see consistency within the model itself. However, while EC is weighted heavily in predictions it is not the only model consulted. So there needs to be some consistency between it and others. EC is run at a very high resolution for a global model, while others such as GFS, ACCESSG, CMC, are run at low resolutions and thus are useful only for broadscale patterns, EC is useful for smaller scale systems as well, much like ACCESS A/R. It's because of the higher resolution that EC is more accurate but also costs more money to set up and run and requires top of the line super-computers which our Aussie budget wouldn't even come close to being able to re-create, and still why would you want to re-invent the wheel. EC is a top line model, there's no real need to have an Aussie equivalent. I'm sure meteorologists disagree with me on that point though.

Have a look at the OCF, it's a mixture of every single model available, however they weight the models on the basis of how accurate they are goinfg at the moment. OCF can give you a really good insight into a best guess scenario. The problem though with OCF is that it is unlikely to pick up extreme localised events. It's a fair bet if OCF is predicting >60mm or so that a significant system or convergence zone will be approaching you in that time frame.

A user-friendly version of OCF's forecasts are very generously provided for free by Australian Weather News:
http://www.australianweathernews.com/forecast_OCF.htm

From the OCF forecasts you can see that we are starting to go cold on the idea of a tropical LOW hitting the coast. However the heavy rain around the Burdekin/Whitsundays area suggests that a nice convergent band will be over them.

EC's ensemble now has the most likely scenario as a tropical LOW forms off the coast of Cairns, hovers for a day or two before moving SLOWLY SE into the Central Coral Sea and developing further. EC then splits and its clusters suggest that the cyclone/LOW will do one of 2 things, continue SE or hover slowly south over the Central Coral Sea.

So a clear example once again of how the ensemble differs from the individual run which would have you believe the LOW washes out north of Townsville. Remember that the run most of us see is the model's best guess based on current analysis and interactions, the ensemble is 50 other runs where something is/are changed slightly. Providing a 'better' guess at what may happen long term.

Top
#968977 - 04/03/2011 09:22 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: nitso]
Stevo59 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/01/2009
Posts: 1037
Loc: Cairns
Looks like it will cross between Cairns and Cooktown so plenty of rain on the way early next week. The centre is expected to form east of Cooktown and track wsw but probably too quickly to become a cyclone. Some potential to fire up in the GOC later on.

http://www.cairns.com.au/article/2011/03/04/152625_local-news.html
_________________________
"Some people are weather wise, but most are otherwise”. Benjamin Franklin.

Top
#968978 - 04/03/2011 09:27 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: nitso]
retired weather man Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 5161
Loc: Wynnum
Once more this is why I dont rely on models - too many 'ifs', with so much variance from one model to the next and from one hour to the next. I stick with raw DATA and projected DATA and knowledge and take it from there. All these models make my head spin and cause unnecessary pages of sensationalism from many quarters..

Top
#968982 - 04/03/2011 09:39 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: retired weather man]
nitso Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/11/2006
Posts: 4236
Loc: Kirwan
Well basically in a nutshell if the system stays weak and shallow it'll hit the coast near Cairns creating some wicked convergence on its southern quadrant.

If it develops depth and intensifies the steering becomes far more complex. That's why models are struggling.

Agree with Stevo a weak system will hit the NTC = huge amounts of rainfall a stronger system will push much further south and may not make landfall at all.

Top
Page 248 of 318 < 1 2 ... 246 247 248 249 250 ... 317 318 >


Who's Online
0 registered (), 44 Guests and 2 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
Billies ride, Jayson Black, NeedMoreLightning, slipperyfish, supercellwish1
Forum Stats
29947 Members
32 Forums
24194 Topics
1529247 Posts

Max Online: 2985 @ 26/01/2019 12:05
Satellite Image