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#932404 - 19/01/2011 22:49 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: boomer]
Blueycairns Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/03/2010
Posts: 155
Loc: Darwin ex Cairns
Was tying my boat up up the creek in Cairns ready for a cyclone (as I'm away working for three weeks) and an old timer came past and pulled up asking are we getting a cyclone. All I could say was maybe within the next three weeks. You never know. Im hoping "Things" it holds off till then.

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#932443 - 20/01/2011 00:01 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: boomer]
TC Poncho Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/01/2010
Posts: 2199
Loc: Point Cartwright, Sunny Coast,...
Originally Posted By: boomer
My mail is that the low will definitely spin up off Cairns on Friday arvo...and then there is an up to even chance Anthony will be christened Sat AM. He will then (or he who cannot yet be named, and may not be, to keep Poncho happy) move south east. Having said that, the formation, should it go beyond a low, is likely to be awfully close to the coast.


Lol. NO, he will be named and he WILL produce epic amounts of swell for Noosa grin
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#932451 - 20/01/2011 00:25 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: TC Poncho]
JoshweatherNOW. Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/01/2011
Posts: 261
Loc: Cairns, Bayview
I really want some good weather action up here in Cairns too!!!
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#932461 - 20/01/2011 01:38 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: JoshweatherNOW.]
boomer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/11/2010
Posts: 3558
Loc: Cairns
Hey Ponch....Ludwig Wittgenstein or Lao Tzu? In reference to your tag. I prefer the latter.
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#932467 - 20/01/2011 02:07 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: boomer]
TC Poncho Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/01/2010
Posts: 2199
Loc: Point Cartwright, Sunny Coast,...
Originally Posted By: boomer
Hey Ponch....Ludwig Wittgenstein or Lao Tzu? In reference to your tag. I prefer the latter.


Nah, it would have to be by someone Irish. Either that or Einstein!

So Anthony you say. Looking pretty good on the goes atm. Fiji has one brewing too. That might get named Ludwig.
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#932475 - 20/01/2011 06:14 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: boomer]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19046
Loc: The Beach.
EC has persisted with a westward moving low out of the Coral Sea next week on its last two runs.

I doubt Brisbane would want this model to come off!



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#932476 - 20/01/2011 06:19 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: ColdFront]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1405
Loc: Toowoomba
The interesting thing is so does access

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#932477 - 20/01/2011 06:28 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: NotsohopefulPete]
Wet Wet Wet Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2008
Posts: 2332
Loc: Mackay, Qld
ECMWF:



GFS:

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#932479 - 20/01/2011 06:48 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Wet Wet Wet]
floody Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/07/2006
Posts: 368
Loc: Bowral
The GFS run for Qld out to early Feb is the stuff of Channel 9's dreams. The central Qld coast recovering from a massive cyclone impact with the decayed low flooding the inland and a new cyclone heading to the Sunshine Coast / Wide Bay area. Glad its only the wet dream of an unreliable model otherwise we'd see enormous damage.

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#932481 - 20/01/2011 06:59 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: floody]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19046
Loc: The Beach.
The fact that it is similar to EC is a little concerning and EC has handled this last week reasonably well. The good thing is that it's days away and alot can change in days.
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#932483 - 20/01/2011 07:00 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: floody]
Brett Guy Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 5159
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Bit of a nightmarish scenario that one. Mind you, it is pretty much excactly what New Caledinia is looking at right now just with oppisite steering influences.

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#932484 - 20/01/2011 07:03 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Brett Guy]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19046
Loc: The Beach.
Access is different to GFS yes?
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#932491 - 20/01/2011 07:31 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: ColdFront]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23724
Loc: Townsville
Thats a maclay to Sarina crossing, what a massive system EC is forcasting !
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#932492 - 20/01/2011 07:32 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Dawgggg]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23724
Loc: Townsville
Its on a saturday too !!! its chaseable. smile
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#932493 - 20/01/2011 07:38 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Dawgggg]
Steamy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/03/2004
Posts: 705
Loc: Mackay Qld Australia
Access is a different Model to GFS yes.......but it is in alignment with GFS and EC regarding a cyclone moving west.

RE " The good thing is that it's days away and alot can change in days."

The models have been persisting with this scenario for a few runs now, I cannot see this steering influence changing

EC



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#932494 - 20/01/2011 07:39 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: ColdFront]
Occo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/12/2007
Posts: 298
Loc: Mackay, Qld
Bloody hell- what a setup EC and GFS are predicting. IF ( and thats a big IF) it does come off- it will be nothing short of a disaster for QLD- with 2 massive systems striking Central QLD and the Widebay areas. Expect to see renewed flooding in Rocky, Bundy, further west inland etc. With most of the ground in that large area still saturated- any major rain will indeed run off. And also- has anyone noticed that at the end of the 2nd system hitting the coast- theres a 3RD low out in the CS and it seems that it also is heading west???
Trav and Nitso will have to put in an application for long service leave- no doubt they will need heaps of time to take all this in! lol

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#932496 - 20/01/2011 07:41 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Occo]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23724
Loc: Townsville
45 metre a second wind equals - 162kmhr
I dont know if EC uses wind gusts or wind averages???? Anyone know?
I just got excited, the bom will be looking at this model right now and crapping themselves. Gales all down the Queensland coast with the high to the south increasing the pressure gradient. The high may even help push it more West to North west yet, still a long way out, but the whole queensland coast may be under threat.....Not good.

Cyclones always hit on weekends smile
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#932497 - 20/01/2011 07:45 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Dawgggg]
Steamy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/03/2004
Posts: 705
Loc: Mackay Qld Australia
Yep GFS has a central pressure of 976hpa just before landfall I make that Cat 3. It can go NW Trav it's all yours.

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#932499 - 20/01/2011 07:49 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Steamy]
Occo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/12/2007
Posts: 298
Loc: Mackay, Qld
STeamy- you said before that you cant see the steering influences change? Are you saying that this scenario may likely happen? No upper lows/ shear etc?

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#932500 - 20/01/2011 07:52 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Steamy]
Tempest Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2001
Posts: 3633
Once EC's models show a general consistency over the next day or so, it will happen, just a matter of the exact location the cyclone will hit.

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