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#889517 - 10/10/2010 18:38 Re: SEQ/NE NSW Trough/Onshore Winds Rain Event 9th-12th October 2010 [Re: Dave-Wx]
Scottie A Offline
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Registered: 23/09/2009
Posts: 2050
Loc: Spring Mountain, Greenbank
Very simple indeed Dave I forgot to include that lucky your awake. The problem there would be if the event end was pushed back to a later date/time aswell but if that did not happen totals would be as you mentioned above.


Edited by scottie90 (10/10/2010 18:40)
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#889521 - 10/10/2010 18:47 Re: SEQ/NE NSW Trough/Onshore Winds Rain Event 9th-12th October 2010 [Re: Scottie A]
james1977 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2009
Posts: 2813
Loc: collingwood park
Showers increasing now and getting heavier, wind is absolutely howling..
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#889522 - 10/10/2010 18:52 Re: SEQ/NE NSW Trough/Onshore Winds Rain Event 9th-12th October 2010 [Re: KevG]
shama Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/03/2010
Posts: 784
Loc: Frenchs Forest, Petrie, QLD (H...
Thanks Dave - I was just curious at the difference between the 18z and the 00z - i didn't think that much had fallen in those 6 hrs... especially not 100mm....
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#889524 - 10/10/2010 18:54 Re: SEQ/NE NSW Trough/Onshore Winds Rain Event 9th-12th October 2010 [Re: james1977]
storm seeker Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2010
Posts: 227
Loc: Wardell, NSW, Australia
Not much here again, just the heavy drizzle and occasional strong gust of wind... quite infuriating if you ask me seem as though the rain is expected north of where it mainly is heading, it is headed down south of Evans Head now... But then again it is weakening the further south it goes so we should get the more intense rain as the night wears on.

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#889527 - 10/10/2010 19:01 Re: SEQ/NE NSW Trough/Onshore Winds Rain Event 9th-12th October 2010 [Re: james1977]
Taylsy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2007
Posts: 1230
Loc: Pacific Pines, Gold Coast
OK - latest Ocean Wind Warning for reference:

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0714 UTC 10 October 2010

GALE WIND WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
At 100500UTC.
An intensifying high over the Tasman Sea. A trough near 21S154E to 28S154E is
moving slowly west towards the southern Queensland coast.

AREA AFFECTED
Within area bounded by 26S153E to 26S160E to 28S160E to 28S153.5E to 26S153E.

FORECAST
S/SE winds 34/40 knots, shifting E/NE east of trough. Very rough to high seas.
Moderate E/SE swells.

154E places the trough around 75 km E of Mt Stapy, so it has moved 100 km west since the last warning six hours ago. At the same rate of movement it will be close to or over the coast around 9/10 pm tonight.

As mentioned earlier I think by Snowmad, the main rainband appears to be consolidating and moving in a WSW to WNW direction. I would expect the "holes" will get filled in as the band gets nearer, so yes anywhere from Sunny Coast south will get some heavy falls later tonight.
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#889528 - 10/10/2010 19:03 Re: SEQ/NE NSW Trough/Onshore Winds Rain Event 9th-12th October 2010 [Re: shama]
Taylsy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2007
Posts: 1230
Loc: Pacific Pines, Gold Coast
Yes but the 300 mm totals were mainly offshore - and it wouldn't surprise me with that blob of rain hanging off Coolangatta most of today if up to 100 mm give or take a few mm fell out to sea.
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Between the bush and the beach.
2017 YTD: 885 mm; 2016: 812 mm; 2015: 1,932 mm; 2014: 943 mm; 2013: 1,501 mm; 2012 1,682 mm; 2011 1,032 mm; 2010 2,151 mm; 2009 1,447 mm.

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#889530 - 10/10/2010 19:07 Re: SEQ/NE NSW Trough/Onshore Winds Rain Event 9th-12th October 2010 [Re: Taylsy]
shama Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/03/2010
Posts: 784
Loc: Frenchs Forest, Petrie, QLD (H...
Ah ok - that makes sense. Thanks Taylsy for clarifying :-)
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Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn't do than by the ones you did. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe habour. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover....

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#889531 - 10/10/2010 19:08 Re: SEQ/NE NSW Trough/Onshore Winds Rain Event 9th-12th October 2010 [Re: Taylsy]
whatscracken Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 02/06/2008
Posts: 275
Loc: Cleveland
FORECAST
S/SE winds 34/40 knots, shifting E/NE east of trough. Very rough to high seas.
Moderate E/SE swells.

I would call 5m swells a bit more than moderate!

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#889532 - 10/10/2010 19:08 Re: SEQ/NE NSW Trough/Onshore Winds Rain Event 9th-12th October 2010 [Re: Taylsy]
chillibin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/01/2008
Posts: 57
Loc: caloundra, sunny coast
still gusty here and light drizzle. Will wait and see what happens tonight. I am enjoying learning from you weather experts and one day hopefully might offer something worthwhile to the discussion :))

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#889534 - 10/10/2010 19:14 Re: SEQ/NE NSW Trough/Onshore Winds Rain Event 9th-12th October 2010 [Re: chillibin]
!SCHUMMY! Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/04/2008
Posts: 2915
Loc: Jimboomba, SEQ
radar is already starting to fill up and totals accumulating at coolangatta and slowly the seaway, going to be very interesting
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#889535 - 10/10/2010 19:18 Re: SEQ/NE NSW Trough/Onshore Winds Rain Event 9th-12th October 2010 [Re: chillibin]
Scottie A Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2009
Posts: 2050
Loc: Spring Mountain, Greenbank
Great information Taylsy that would explain why things are starting to ramp up now with the mid-upper system (Convergence Zone out to sea starting to deepen and the low which is sitting over the inland) starting to combine with the lower system (Convergence Zone/ Trough which you mentioned was 75km east of Mt Stapylton). As mentioned by me and a few other orographic lift should enhance things further when rain crosses the coast.


Edited by scottie90 (10/10/2010 19:22)
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#889536 - 10/10/2010 19:18 Re: SEQ/NE NSW Trough/Onshore Winds Rain Event 9th-12th October 2010 [Re: chillibin]
storm seeker Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2010
Posts: 227
Loc: Wardell, NSW, Australia
Well, my interpretation of this situation is that if the trough crosses the coast around the border areas, that means that there will be falls of up to(or exceeding) 150mm by 9am tomorrow morning... but isn't it the trough that amplifies the rain bands etc, so does this mean that the areas of rain will ease as soon as the trough crosses the coast???

Anyways, I am expecting that there will be very exceptional falls widespread down the coast and adjacent ranges from the Sunny Coast down to possibly Evans Head... even though I absolutely love the rain, especially whenever it is heavy, I believe that we DO NOT need any more rain and that it should just fine up for a week or so that the ground can drain away and dry out the rain that has been saturating it for the past week or so.

But either way, I am half looking forward to the amounts of rain that could be around by mornings beginning, so we will just have to see what happens.

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#889538 - 10/10/2010 19:23 Re: SEQ/NE NSW Trough/Onshore Winds Rain Event 9th-12th October 2010 [Re: Scottie A]
shama Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/03/2010
Posts: 784
Loc: Frenchs Forest, Petrie, QLD (H...
I'm starting to get excited now - I feel like I've been waiting all weekend for The Event, and its driving me crazy :-) lol I'm like a little kid on Xmas eve!

A little bit of rain here now, nothing heavy but after nothing much all afternoon its a good sign
_________________________
Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn't do than by the ones you did. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe habour. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover....

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#889539 - 10/10/2010 19:23 Re: SEQ/NE NSW Trough/Onshore Winds Rain Event 9th-12th October 2010 [Re: storm seeker]
oldmate_99 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/03/2009
Posts: 428
Loc: Caloundra, Sunny Coast
A day of constant drizzle with 28mm in the nylex. Gusty winds have picked up this arvo. Lots of small tree branches down in the estate, but other then that it has been ok.

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#889542 - 10/10/2010 19:24 Re: SEQ/NE NSW Trough/Onshore Winds Rain Event 9th-12th October 2010 [Re: oldmate_99]
SCC Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/01/2009
Posts: 248
Loc: Brisbane
Absolutely pouring down here and we are only under light blue on the radar so the rain out to sea must be super intense haha

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#889543 - 10/10/2010 19:25 Re: SEQ/NE NSW Trough/Onshore Winds Rain Event 9th-12th October 2010 [Re: storm seeker]
Brett Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/09/2001
Posts: 403
Loc: Corinda.

I'm not convinced that this is going to play out as expected - all the weather may stay off the coast. It has been gusty here this afternoon, but not much rain and the radar looks disappointing. There was a patch of blue sky here at 5pm. I'm hoping I am wrong, but not expecting 80mm or so here near Archerfield tonight.
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#889544 - 10/10/2010 19:35 Re: SEQ/NE NSW Trough/Onshore Winds Rain Event 9th-12th October 2010 [Re: Brett]
DARK&STORMY Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/05/2007
Posts: 1613
Loc: Kilkivan, Wide Bay Burnett, QL...
It's slowly getting there by real time obs on the MT SAT

http://realtime2.bsch.au.com/mtsat_sat.html?region=aus&loop=yes&images=10&allday=&start=&stop=

Whoops SCHUMMY I did that cut paste thing again blush

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#889546 - 10/10/2010 19:38 Re: SEQ/NE NSW Trough/Onshore Winds Rain Event 9th-12th October 2010 [Re: DARK&STORMY]
!SCHUMMY! Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/04/2008
Posts: 2915
Loc: Jimboomba, SEQ
it is looking good now, radar will get better as the night goes on and i think most of us know how quickly this can deteriorate from past events, this will be one of them, thats a good link there muso, dont really use it much myself

haha thats ok i still do it sometimes when i feel lazy smile
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#889547 - 10/10/2010 19:39 Re: SEQ/NE NSW Trough/Onshore Winds Rain Event 9th-12th October 2010 [Re: Brett]
james1977 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2009
Posts: 2813
Loc: collingwood park
Some heavy rain streaming in from the north east, buy around 8 tonight it should be raining pretty good but thats just my opinion.
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#889548 - 10/10/2010 19:44 Re: SEQ/NE NSW Trough/Onshore Winds Rain Event 9th-12th October 2010 [Re: Taylsy]
grayarea Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/05/2007
Posts: 524
Loc: Doonan, Sunshine Coast
Lightning and thunder here. Just like Friday. Things are warming up wink

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