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#889697 - 10/10/2010 22:45 Re: SEQ/NE NSW Trough/Onshore Winds Rain Event 9th-12th October 2010 [Re: Brett]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8293
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
Originally Posted By: Brett
Originally Posted By: Stephen
Non event? Where exactly do you live Brett? A cave?

It's pouring here, absolutely loving this. Plenty more to come, especially for the southern areas. smile


I live at Corinda, the closest location on the radar is Archerfield. I have had a few spots of rain, but talk of flooding in the Brisbane river as I have heard tonight is rubbish. Pictures of flooded back yards after 20mm of rain is laughable.


I may be wrong but lets all have a reality check on the situation.



tell us all about it once the event is over..

Feb '10 was the same if i can recall.. no one anticipated significant rain (BoM had no warnings out) and then 300-400mm fell over the gold coast.

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#889698 - 10/10/2010 22:46 Re: SEQ/NE NSW Trough/Onshore Winds Rain Event 9th-12th October 2010 [Re: Long Road Home]
!SCHUMMY! Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/04/2008
Posts: 2915
Loc: Jimboomba, SEQ
i have been seeing that at the GC seaway winds has swung SE now and temps risen, is this indicating the through nearing or just my imagination?
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#889699 - 10/10/2010 22:48 Re: SEQ/NE NSW Trough/Onshore Winds Rain Event 9th-12th October 2010 [Re: !SCHUMMY!]
Scottie A Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2009
Posts: 2050
Loc: Spring Mountain, Greenbank
Originally Posted By: !SCHUMMY!
i have been seeing that at the GC seaway winds has swung SE now and temps risen, is this indicating the through nearing or just my imagination?


Winds should swing Easterly Schummy pressure should start to rise aswell well the trough crosses down there.


Edited by scottie90 (10/10/2010 22:49)
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#889700 - 10/10/2010 22:48 Re: SEQ/NE NSW Trough/Onshore Winds Rain Event 9th-12th October 2010 [Re: Long Road Home]
Shayne Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 26/01/2006
Posts: 5816
Loc: Cedar Grove SEQ
hey..im happy for it to pour down..if im cut off here tomorrow morning ill be a happy man...

moderate rain currently, winds calm and 16c and 64% humidity..
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#889701 - 10/10/2010 22:48 Re: SEQ/NE NSW Trough/Onshore Winds Rain Event 9th-12th October 2010 [Re: Long Road Home]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23525
Loc: Townsville
Last time i checked mate it doesnt matter if you dont get any rain in brisbane. All that rain up near the sunshine coast will penetrate inland and go straight over the catchments. Meaning that SE QLD water have to then release more water which would induce river rises down stream. Obviously there wont be a major flood unless there is so much water in the catchments that its dangerous to hold it back and they would have to release the flood gates to 100%....other than that you need to be looking upstream towards the flood gates of the brisbane river, so as a summary, it doesnt matter if brisbane gets a big fat 0mm tonight smile its all about the catchments, and how much falls in the brisbane river above and below wivenhoe and somserset


Edited by Travvv doggy dog (10/10/2010 22:50)
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#889702 - 10/10/2010 22:49 Re: SEQ/NE NSW Trough/Onshore Winds Rain Event 9th-12th October 2010 [Re: Long Road Home]
JEFF.H. Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 26/12/2002
Posts: 2897
Loc: Oxenford
Footfulofbindies I have just got a general warning on my site which is linked to my facebook and Ill update it soon and then leave it at that, however I wont be moving far from my PC tonight now that GFS has just shown me a serious flood potential over the next 12hrs ! I get shivers down my back when I see the 500mb to 300mb winds shift to the NE!!! Oh and not to mention a 500mb convergence right over the Gold Coast

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#889703 - 10/10/2010 22:50 Re: SEQ/NE NSW Trough/Onshore Winds Rain Event 9th-12th October 2010 [Re: Shayne]
!SCHUMMY! Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/04/2008
Posts: 2915
Loc: Jimboomba, SEQ
Originally Posted By: Shayne
hey..im happy for it to pour down..if im cut off here tomorrow morning ill be a happy man...

moderate rain currently, winds calm and 16c and 64% humidity..


that would be a good late birthday present for you.....no work grin
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#889704 - 10/10/2010 22:51 Re: SEQ/NE NSW Trough/Onshore Winds Rain Event 9th-12th October 2010 [Re: Scottie A]
richo p Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/07/2008
Posts: 905
Loc: Brisbane, Albany Creek
Wow never seen this sort of warning before by the BOM for such a widespread area! It's usually for the GC hinterland or sunny coast hinterland. In this case widespread from the Sunny coast to the NSW boarder!


FLOOD WARNING FOR COASTAL STREAMS FROM THE SUNSHINE COAST TO THE NSW BORDER INCLUDING ADJACENT HINTERLAND STREAMS

Issued at 9:29 PM on Sunday the 10th of October 2010
by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane.

Heavy rainfall has re-commenced tonight on the Sunshine Coast and nearby
hinterland. Further heavy rain is forecast overnight and Monday for all areas
from the Sunshine Coast to the NSW border. A Severe Weather Warning for damaging
wind gusts and flash flooding is current.


Flooding to at least moderate flood levels is expected to develop tonight and
Monday in the smaller coastal streams from the Sunshine Coast to the Gold Coast
area. Flooding in Sunshine Coast streams is likely to be similar to that of
Friday night, including fast rises and moderate flooding in the upper Maroochy
and Mooloolah Rivers and tributaries, and in Yandina, Petrie, Paynter, Eudlo and
Mountain Creeks. Fast rises and flooding are also likely to develop in the upper
Mary River and eastern tributaries, including Obi Obi and Six Mile Creeks.

During the early hours of Monday, heavy rain, stream rises and flooding could
develop in smaller coastal streams and creeks from the Sunshine Coast area to
the NSW border, including adjacent hinterland areas.

People in low lying areas should monitor rising water levels. Motorists should
avoid driving in the area as flooded roads and crossings will be very dangerous
at night.


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#889705 - 10/10/2010 22:51 Re: SEQ/NE NSW Trough/Onshore Winds Rain Event 9th-12th October 2010 [Re: Mega]
DARK&STORMY Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/05/2007
Posts: 1613
Loc: Kilkivan, Wide Bay Burnett, QL...
Originally Posted By: Mega
"Issued at 6:47 AM on Wednesday the 11th of August 2010"

lol, about 2 months late Muso.

edit: that link looks fine to me?


Yeah very weird thats why I pasted the link a warning poped up
and showed a mess up for humour, but was quickly rectified, the evidence is in my last post, it would take me a good day to dig that one up.

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#889706 - 10/10/2010 22:51 Re: SEQ/NE NSW Trough/Onshore Winds Rain Event 9th-12th October 2010 [Re: JEFF.H.]
Scottie A Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2009
Posts: 2050
Loc: Spring Mountain, Greenbank
Originally Posted By: JEFF.H.
Footfulofbindies I have just got a general warning on my site which is linked to my facebook and Ill update it soon and then leave it at that, however I wont be moving far from my PC tonight now that GFS has just shown me a serious flood potential over the next 12hrs ! I get shivers down my back when I see the 500mb to 300mb winds shift to the NE!!! Oh and not to mention a 500mb convergence right over the Gold Coast


GFS was a little late on picking up the 500mb convergence zone forming this afternoon only just picked it up in the 00Z run, Correct me if i am wrong.


Edited by scottie90 (10/10/2010 22:53)
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#889708 - 10/10/2010 22:53 Re: SEQ/NE NSW Trough/Onshore Winds Rain Event 9th-12th October 2010 [Re: JEFF.H.]
JEFF.H. Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 26/12/2002
Posts: 2897
Loc: Oxenford
Pretty serious Thunderstorm near Rainbow Beach and Tin Can Bay ATM , one to keep an eye on....
Yeah Scott as I said GFS tends to "fine tune" late during an event and these finer details can be missed, I missed the seriousness of the Flood event here in Feb which had an almost exact same set up , Im not letting things like that slip through over my head again haha


Edited by JEFF.H. (10/10/2010 22:56)

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#889709 - 10/10/2010 22:58 Re: SEQ/NE NSW Trough/Onshore Winds Rain Event 9th-12th October 2010 [Re: JEFF.H.]
nocturnal1 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 04/03/2010
Posts: 1076
Loc: Murwillumbah, NE NSW
It is NUTS out there... sounds mildly cyclonic. wink Rain coming down in sheets, and quite blowy. There's a loud background roar which I thought at first was the rain... actually it's the raging torrent down in my backyard!!! (stormwater easement)... EPIC. grin

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#889710 - 10/10/2010 22:59 Re: SEQ/NE NSW Trough/Onshore Winds Rain Event 9th-12th October 2010 [Re: JEFF.H.]
Scottie A Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2009
Posts: 2050
Loc: Spring Mountain, Greenbank
Originally Posted By: JEFF.H.
Pretty serious Thunderstorm near Rainbow Beach and Tin Can Bay ATM , one to keep an eye on....
Yeah Scott as I said GFS tends to "fine tune" late during an event and these finer details can be missed, I missed the seriousness of the Flood event here in Feb which had an almost exact same set up , Im not letting things like that slip through over my head again haha


GFS has a actually done a really good job it predicted the complete easterly shear profile from surface up to 300mb from quite a long time ago which is generally a good indicator aswell that we are in for an event of great proportions.


Edited by scottie90 (10/10/2010 22:59)
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#889711 - 10/10/2010 23:00 Re: SEQ/NE NSW Trough/Onshore Winds Rain Event 9th-12th October 2010 [Re: nocturnal1]
shama Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/03/2010
Posts: 784
Loc: Frenchs Forest, Petrie, QLD (H...
I notice on the radar it has almost a spearhead shape to it... the south and the north of Brisbane seem to have the start of the event but not brisbane...

is that what you mean by "convergence??......?
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#889713 - 10/10/2010 23:05 Re: SEQ/NE NSW Trough/Onshore Winds Rain Event 9th-12th October 2010 [Re: shama]
nocturnal1 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 04/03/2010
Posts: 1076
Loc: Murwillumbah, NE NSW
Severe Weather Warning
for flash flooding
for people in the Northern Tablelands and Northern Rivers forecast districts

Issued at 11:02 pm EDT on Sunday 10 October 2010.

Weather Situation

A low pressure trough lies off NSW far north coast . A strong high pressure system lies to the east of Tasmania.

Widespread rain for the Northern Rivers and the eastern parts of the Northern Tablelands Showers which may lead to flash flooding is forecast for the Northern Rivers forecast district and parts of the Northern Tablelands forecast district. The current rain rate in the north of the region of about 15 to 30 mm per hour is forecast to continue overnight and into Monday morning. Strong gusty winds, particularly along the coast are accompanying the rain.

Steady rain between about 15 to 30 mm per hour has been falling in the northern parts of the area for the last three hours.

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#889715 - 10/10/2010 23:11 Re: SEQ/NE NSW Trough/Onshore Winds Rain Event 9th-12th October 2010 [Re: nocturnal1]
NCSC - Antonio Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 30/06/2010
Posts: 1078
Loc: Goonellabah NSW
Raining more here now recent gust was a 45km Byron is on 88kmss

Antonio.

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#889716 - 10/10/2010 23:19 Re: SEQ/NE NSW Trough/Onshore Winds Rain Event 9th-12th October 2010 [Re: NCSC - Antonio]
shama Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/03/2010
Posts: 784
Loc: Frenchs Forest, Petrie, QLD (H...
Vic Point about to get smashed again. Friend of mine on McLean island said its pouring there - has never heard rain like it.
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#889719 - 10/10/2010 23:27 Re: SEQ/NE NSW Trough/Onshore Winds Rain Event 9th-12th October 2010 [Re: shama]
!SCHUMMY! Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/04/2008
Posts: 2915
Loc: Jimboomba, SEQ
that was one good downpour, got about 30-40mm from it, now to wait for the stuff coming in from the NE which is looking good
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#889720 - 10/10/2010 23:29 Re: SEQ/NE NSW Trough/Onshore Winds Rain Event 9th-12th October 2010 [Re: NCSC - Antonio]
Adam Ant Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/10/2003
Posts: 1009
Loc: West Toowoomba
If I didnt have a computer I wouldnt have a clue that a major coastal rain event is about to happen crazy Its just been a typical windy day in toowoomba with the odd shower. Nice to see you guys get some more rain on the coast...but can you send it inland! I have only had 30mm so far this month. We never get much out of these coastal setups, I would be happy with anything over 15mm to be honest

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#889721 - 10/10/2010 23:31 Re: SEQ/NE NSW Trough/Onshore Winds Rain Event 9th-12th October 2010 [Re: Adam Ant]
!SCHUMMY! Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/04/2008
Posts: 2915
Loc: Jimboomba, SEQ
301.2mm for the month, average is 92.6mm, and theres plenty more rain to come, you can take the rain, please smile but still good

Edit: nice little embedded cell going through rainbow beach right now as jeff mentioned earlier


Edited by !SCHUMMY! (10/10/2010 23:40)
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