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#892372 - 20/10/2010 17:36 Northern Territory & GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2010/2011
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6861
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
2010/2011 Northern Territory Tropical Cyclone Season Outlook
"Top End Residents Urged to Prepare Early for the Cyclone Season"
The Northern Territory region is likely to experience earlier and above average tropical cyclone activity during the 2010-11 season.

La Nina remains well-established in the Pacific region and is expected to persist into at least early 2011. Sea surface temperatures are above normal in waters around northern Australia. This situation provides favourable conditions for tropical cyclone development in Northern Territory waters early in the 2010-11 season.

During La Nina years in the Top End, there tends to be an earlier start to build-up conditions and higher rainfall during the early part of the wet season from October to December. The monsoon onset and the first cyclone of the season are also more likely earlier than usual, in early to mid-December, rather than after Christmas.

It is likely that there will be more cyclones than normal around the Northern Territory in the 2010-11 season. The average number is between 2 and 3. The most cyclones observed in the NT region during recent seasons is five. Cyclone activity is often concentrated in the Arafura and Timor Seas, rather than in the Gulf of Carpentaria, during La Nina years.

This means that residents in Darwin and other coastal communities around the NT should prepare early for an active cyclone season.

"It's not just residents on the coast who need to be cleaning up", said the Supervising Meteorologist in the NT, Mr Gordon Jackson. "Tropical cyclones can cause damage well inland. The people of Oenpelli and Jabiru will remember that Severe TC 'Monica' still packed a punch when it got to them, and of course in Western Australia they had damage and deaths from 'George' as far as 100km south of Port Hedland in 2007."

The potential early start to the season is also concerning the Bureau. "Even though December is a more likely time, we can't rule late November out", said Mr. Jackson. "We're just in the middle of the first active phase of the Wet now, and the next peak phase might be starting by mid-November. That's not that far off and from then onwards we think things will be pretty busy right across northern Australia. The other thing is that the chance of an early cyclone also means higher chances of flooding inland early in the season, because a cyclone decaying inland can dump loads of rain."

People in coastal and island areas should clean up around their premises, prepare their emergency kit and consider what they will do when a cyclone watch or warning is declared. It is essential that people in areas affected by cyclones plan ahead and decide whether they will evacuate to a safer area, and what their options are to shelter from dangerous weather conditions.

The latest information on tropical cyclones is available on the Bureau of Meteorology web site http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/ and on the recorded telephone service 1300 659 211 for the cost of a local call (higher cost on mobile telephones).

The Northern Region incorporates the eastern Timor Sea, Arafura Sea and the Gulf of Carpentaria.

Further enquires can be directed to Gordon Jackson (08) 8920 3872 or Todd Smith (08) 8920 3813, e-mail: ntsevere@bom.gov.au.

Additional information:

Updates on the status of the El Niņo - Southern Oscillation
Map of historical TC distributions during La Nina years
Tropical cyclone warnings and information
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Rs tl 2018-19 Wet Season. > 2018 tl 01/01/19 903.0 mm -
feb-2019 month 883.5 mm Mar 173.4 mm April 7.8 mm May 29.1 mm> June 1.8 mm
(07 06-19_ 03:47 pm) Yr 1297 mm / Wy rain 1.2mm month 1.2 mm/ 0.0 mm

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#892374 - 20/10/2010 17:41 Re: Northern Territory & GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2010/2011 [Re: Mathew]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6861
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
It's looks like there is a nice blob sitting in the GOC.

Might develop into a early Tropical Cyclone we just have to keep a watch of it and and wait and see what happen I mean.

There is a lots of rain developing hear Gove Radar at the moment.

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR091.loop.shtml#skip


Edited by Mathew (20/10/2010 17:44)
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Rs tl 2018-19 Wet Season. > 2018 tl 01/01/19 903.0 mm -
feb-2019 month 883.5 mm Mar 173.4 mm April 7.8 mm May 29.1 mm> June 1.8 mm
(07 06-19_ 03:47 pm) Yr 1297 mm / Wy rain 1.2mm month 1.2 mm/ 0.0 mm

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#892375 - 20/10/2010 17:51 Re: Northern Territory & GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2010/2011 [Re: Mathew]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6861
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
At the moment it's might need a little of watching of there at the moment that is all.


Edited by Mathew (20/10/2010 17:52)
_________________________
Rs tl 2018-19 Wet Season. > 2018 tl 01/01/19 903.0 mm -
feb-2019 month 883.5 mm Mar 173.4 mm April 7.8 mm May 29.1 mm> June 1.8 mm
(07 06-19_ 03:47 pm) Yr 1297 mm / Wy rain 1.2mm month 1.2 mm/ 0.0 mm

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#892384 - 20/10/2010 19:11 Re: Northern Territory & GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2010/2011 [Re: Mathew]
JimmyGray Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/08/2008
Posts: 1579
Loc: Palmerston NT
Yeah Good work Mathew. Considering that Gove is continuing to cop rain in October shows how active the season is shaping up to be.
Its an impressive mass of cloud thats for sure! eek

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#895070 - 01/11/2010 16:10 Re: Northern Territory & GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2010/2011 [Re: JimmyGray]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4219
Loc: El Arish
The first tropical cyclone 3 day outlook for the 2010/2011 cyclone season grin

Tropical Cyclone Outlook
IDD10610
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

Tropical Cyclone 3 day Outlook for Northern Region, including the Gulf of
Carpentaria

Tropical Cyclone 3 day Outlook for Northern Region, including the Gulf of
Carpentaria

Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:15 pm CST Monday 1 November 2010

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

There are no significant tropical lows in the Region.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the Northern Region on:

Tuesday: Very low,
Wednesday: Very low,
Thursday: Very low.

NOTE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day...
Very low: less than 5%, Low: 5% to 20%, Moderate: 20% to 50%, High: Over 50%.


The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area between 125E and 142E,
including the Gulf of Carpentaria.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone.
_________________________
Why is it in the era of "Time saving" devices, that people are more "Time poor" than ever?

Humans think they are the fabric of society,when they are merely part of the thread.


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#895303 - 02/11/2010 16:02 Re: Northern Territory & GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2010/2011 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6861
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
There is a nice developing blob sitting hear Darwin at the moment might need a little watching hear there.

That might move into the Gulf of Carpentaria and develop into a 1st possible Tropical Cyclone just some things to keep a watch for over there. grin


Edited by Mathew (02/11/2010 16:11)
_________________________
Rs tl 2018-19 Wet Season. > 2018 tl 01/01/19 903.0 mm -
feb-2019 month 883.5 mm Mar 173.4 mm April 7.8 mm May 29.1 mm> June 1.8 mm
(07 06-19_ 03:47 pm) Yr 1297 mm / Wy rain 1.2mm month 1.2 mm/ 0.0 mm

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#895307 - 02/11/2010 16:13 Re: Northern Territory & GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2010/2011 [Re: Mathew]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6861
Loc: Townsville, Queensland


Edited by Mathew (02/11/2010 16:22)
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Rs tl 2018-19 Wet Season. > 2018 tl 01/01/19 903.0 mm -
feb-2019 month 883.5 mm Mar 173.4 mm April 7.8 mm May 29.1 mm> June 1.8 mm
(07 06-19_ 03:47 pm) Yr 1297 mm / Wy rain 1.2mm month 1.2 mm/ 0.0 mm

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#895309 - 02/11/2010 16:31 Re: Northern Territory & GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2010/2011 [Re: Mathew]
Brett Guy Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 5159
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Originally Posted By: Mathew
There is a nice developing blob sitting hear Darwin at the moment might need a little watching hear there.

That might move into the Gulf of Carpentaria and develop into a 1st possible Tropical Cyclone just some things to keep a watch for over there. grin


Highly doubtful. Uppers are terrible atm. 60-80kts from what I can see

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#895369 - 02/11/2010 21:41 Re: Northern Territory & GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2010/2011 [Re: Brett Guy]
Squid Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/09/2005
Posts: 9535
Loc: Murgon
the blob is from a upper trough so wont happen this time maby next time

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#898148 - 14/11/2010 18:45 Re: Northern Territory & GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2010/2011 [Re: Squid]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6861
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
Here some bit of some good news.....

There is a very high chance NT area could be seeing a Possible Tropical Cyclone hear there coast later in 3 week or 4 week time maybe 5 week time we will surely see.

WA are watching a developing Tropical low that might develop into their 2nd Tropical Cyclone that if it's don't hit the coast hear the WA coast there is a very high change again this one will trun around and go hear the NT area.

All we can do is watch and wait and see what happen.

Watch this sapce!!!


Edited by Mathew (14/11/2010 18:55)
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Rs tl 2018-19 Wet Season. > 2018 tl 01/01/19 903.0 mm -
feb-2019 month 883.5 mm Mar 173.4 mm April 7.8 mm May 29.1 mm> June 1.8 mm
(07 06-19_ 03:47 pm) Yr 1297 mm / Wy rain 1.2mm month 1.2 mm/ 0.0 mm

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#898155 - 14/11/2010 18:56 Re: Northern Territory & GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2010/2011 [Re: Mathew]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6861
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
That what I mean.

Some one got to talking about the NT area as well.


Edited by Mathew (14/11/2010 19:00)
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Rs tl 2018-19 Wet Season. > 2018 tl 01/01/19 903.0 mm -
feb-2019 month 883.5 mm Mar 173.4 mm April 7.8 mm May 29.1 mm> June 1.8 mm
(07 06-19_ 03:47 pm) Yr 1297 mm / Wy rain 1.2mm month 1.2 mm/ 0.0 mm

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#898157 - 14/11/2010 19:00 Re: Northern Territory & GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2010/2011 [Re: Mathew]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25465
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
mathew the low in the WA waters is thousands of km's off the coast, wont get anywhere near NT waters.
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Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2019 total - 27.8mm (21.2mm)
July 2019 total - 0.0mm (14.9mm)
2019 Yearly total to date - 2049.9mm (1129mm)

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#898159 - 14/11/2010 19:04 Re: Northern Territory & GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2010/2011 [Re: Mick10]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6861
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
What do you think any way Mick10?

It's was only my forecast that one if I get it's right or not right I am not to worry about it I am keeping my cool.

It's is only a start what to come. grin wink

That what I think any way for at the moment.


Edited by Mathew (14/11/2010 19:10)
_________________________
Rs tl 2018-19 Wet Season. > 2018 tl 01/01/19 903.0 mm -
feb-2019 month 883.5 mm Mar 173.4 mm April 7.8 mm May 29.1 mm> June 1.8 mm
(07 06-19_ 03:47 pm) Yr 1297 mm / Wy rain 1.2mm month 1.2 mm/ 0.0 mm

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#898206 - 14/11/2010 20:47 Re: Northern Territory & GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2010/2011 [Re: Mathew]
Dawoodman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 1271
Loc: Thoopara; Prossie/ Bayswater
Matthew.....do a little reading on how cyclones are formed....look at the conditions.

then check the conditions of the area you are making the forecast.

also check other weather models too....they know more than most of us.

and don't assume every "blob" of cloud is going to turn into a cyclone.
_________________________
The storms are always beyond the horizon, behind the trees or parting above your head

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#900828 - 25/11/2010 17:18 Re: Northern Territory & GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2010/2011 [Re: Dawoodman]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6861
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
All well it's is only the start of the Tropical Cyclone Season and what to come next that what I think any way. smile wink

We may see some more Tropical Cyclone & Tropical low may develop next week as we get into December let to come who know we just have to wait and see what to come I mean.

For NT they may start to see a developing Tropical low moving in their area as of next week that may develop into a Tropical Cyclone who know Watch this sapce!!!



Edited by Mathew (25/11/2010 17:26)
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Rs tl 2018-19 Wet Season. > 2018 tl 01/01/19 903.0 mm -
feb-2019 month 883.5 mm Mar 173.4 mm April 7.8 mm May 29.1 mm> June 1.8 mm
(07 06-19_ 03:47 pm) Yr 1297 mm / Wy rain 1.2mm month 1.2 mm/ 0.0 mm

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#900861 - 25/11/2010 19:04 Re: Northern Territory & GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2010/2011 [Re: Mathew]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6861
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
weak Tropical low is now a 1010hpa It need a bit of watching at the moment for the NT area I say it's is now a 1006 hPa or 1005 hPa the low by watching this here.
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDX1274.shtml

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/synoptic_col.shtml

Who is with me or not it's looks like it has been develop this one a bit more better?


Edited by Mathew (25/11/2010 19:09)
_________________________
Rs tl 2018-19 Wet Season. > 2018 tl 01/01/19 903.0 mm -
feb-2019 month 883.5 mm Mar 173.4 mm April 7.8 mm May 29.1 mm> June 1.8 mm
(07 06-19_ 03:47 pm) Yr 1297 mm / Wy rain 1.2mm month 1.2 mm/ 0.0 mm

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#901354 - 27/11/2010 10:02 Re: Northern Territory & GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2010/2011 [Re: Mathew]
sswanss Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 05/12/2004
Posts: 952
Loc: Sth Hedland
You Have lost me on this one???
_________________________
Go The Swannies 2018!!!

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#901412 - 27/11/2010 16:17 Re: Northern Territory & GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2010/2011 [Re: sswanss]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6861
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
I am very sure there is some things out there and developing.

This link to this clip may help you what I am talking about I mean.



Edited by Mathew (27/11/2010 16:21)
_________________________
Rs tl 2018-19 Wet Season. > 2018 tl 01/01/19 903.0 mm -
feb-2019 month 883.5 mm Mar 173.4 mm April 7.8 mm May 29.1 mm> June 1.8 mm
(07 06-19_ 03:47 pm) Yr 1297 mm / Wy rain 1.2mm month 1.2 mm/ 0.0 mm

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#901420 - 27/11/2010 16:34 Re: Northern Territory & GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2010/2011 [Re: Mathew]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7918
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
I can understand where your coming from Mathew. But more likely WA that NT. Latest GFS 8 day has that low slipping SE towards the western OZ coast next Friday. Even the wzone synoptic charts has a low off the WA coast at 995 probably formulated from the GFS charts. Reckon they might be dreaming. But we will wait and see. Will post the relevant charts over in the wa forum so you can see.
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Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#901430 - 27/11/2010 16:55 Re: Northern Territory & GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2010/2011 [Re: Popeye]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6861
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
Thanks for understand me there. smile

Now we got to wait and see what happen as we get into the next week.


Edited by Mathew (27/11/2010 17:00)
_________________________
Rs tl 2018-19 Wet Season. > 2018 tl 01/01/19 903.0 mm -
feb-2019 month 883.5 mm Mar 173.4 mm April 7.8 mm May 29.1 mm> June 1.8 mm
(07 06-19_ 03:47 pm) Yr 1297 mm / Wy rain 1.2mm month 1.2 mm/ 0.0 mm

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