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#908438 - 12/12/2010 11:35 Christmas, Boxing and New Years Day Weather Predictions
Vinnie Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/05/2006
Posts: 4617
Loc: Yeppoon (10km's south 4703) QL...
Well just a thread to post what we think the weather will be like

1. On Christmas Day
2. On Boxing Day
3. On New Years Day

Doesn't Weatherzone's main page usually have predictions on the main home page by now ?
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#908475 - 12/12/2010 14:26 Re: Christmas, Boxing and New Years Day Weather Predictions [Re: Vinnie]
BOM99 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/08/2004
Posts: 4645
Loc: Australia
Its a bit too soon to make a forecast of any reliability. However model outlooks are keen on a low on WA west coast and a moderate cold front next weekend in the SE of Australia. This pattern could repeat in about another week which would mean at Xmas. I think it could be a coolish Xmas/New Year in the east with a possible snow flurry in the Snowies, but I doubt it will be very wet again. At this time of year that would produce quite nice weather on the coast and coolish but pleasant on the tablenads. I tend to think that it will get wetter again towards the end of summer. May even get a little rain in Perth at Xmas.

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#908868 - 13/12/2010 18:43 Re: Christmas, Boxing and New Years Day Weather Predictions [Re: BOM99]
Canberra's Weather Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/11/2005
Posts: 1139
Loc: Canberra
I'll take a punt for Canberra:

1 & 2. Hot (late 20s, possibly early 30s). Dry. (educated guess based on the fact Monday the 20th will see a fairly unusual cool spike these tend to be followed by the opposite extreme)
3. Isolated showers and 24C3C (very wild stab in the dark)
_________________________
Too many above-average temperatures in the mainstream general air environment. Stagnant high pressure systems (not like they used to?). What's going on?????

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#909052 - 14/12/2010 12:29 Re: Christmas, Boxing and New Years Day Weather Predictions [Re: Canberra's Weather]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 5684
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
It's interesting that for the Central Tablelands and Central Coast areas, the computer generated 28 day rainfall has high prob of rain at Christmas. So it might be hot and stormy or it might be cool and rainy - depending on the form of the precip. grin

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#909085 - 14/12/2010 13:53 Re: Christmas, Boxing and New Years Day Weather Predictions [Re: DaveM]
ant Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2002
Posts: 9063
Loc: Overlooking ACT at 848m
I hope you're wrong, CW. Hot Xmas day is no fun at all. But it does tend to follow, that a hump of cold weather is followed by a hump of hot.

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#909089 - 14/12/2010 14:15 Re: Christmas, Boxing and New Years Day Weather Predictions [Re: ant]
kizz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/02/2002
Posts: 1396
Loc: Beacon Hill, Sydney 152m asl
Cold Christmas days are a bucket of misery too when your family has geared up for outdoor activities in summer weather.
The only forecast model I see for the 25th is GFS extended and that is Fantasy Forecasting.

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#909094 - 14/12/2010 14:56 Re: Christmas, Boxing and New Years Day Weather Predictions [Re: kizz]
DrizzlyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2008
Posts: 3775
Loc: Southern Sydney
For Sydney:

Forecast for Saturday 25th December 2010.

Fine and mostly sunny. Winds NW'ly and light, tending N-NE'ly on the coast in the afternoon. Humid.

City Centre: Min 21, Max 29
Penrith: Min 20, Max 33

UV Index predicted to reach 15 [Extreme]

Forecast for Sunday 26th December 2010.

Partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms developing from midday. Humid. Winds NW'ly and light ahead of a gusty S'ly change in the evening.

City Centre: Min 23, Max: 30
Penrith: Min 23, Max: 34

UV Index predicted to reach 15 [Extreme]

Forecast for Saturday 1st January 2011

Cloudy. Isolated showers, mainly about the coastal fringe. Light SE'ly winds, tending moderate to fresh E'ly along the coast in the afternoon.

City Centre: Min 19, Max 26
Penrith: Min 18, Max 29

UV Index predicted to reach 14 [Extreme]













Edited by snow4sydney (14/12/2010 14:57)

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#909129 - 14/12/2010 16:42 Re: Christmas, Boxing and New Years Day Weather Predictions [Re: DrizzlyBear]
SBT Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2007
Posts: 13617
Loc: Townsville Dry Tropics
Townsville - 24 to 36 - Easterlies 10 to 15 kph Hot, humdid with showers followed by periods of rain strengthening in the afternoon to widespread falls of 20 to 150mm and above - (Insert date here).

UV Index - unreadable due to glare.

Cloud cover 8 to 10/10ths

Christmas day will be a stinker.

New years Eve fireworks will be a washout.

That seems to cover every day until at least mid march 2011.

Might we have a cyclone on News Day, just for a change, please.


Edited by Sir BoabTree (14/12/2010 16:45)
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#909152 - 14/12/2010 17:20 Re: Christmas, Boxing and New Years Day Weather Predictions [Re: SBT]
shama Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/03/2010
Posts: 784
Loc: Frenchs Forest, Petrie, QLD (H...
I'm going to go out on a limb here... and say it will be the following for Brisbane:
CHRISTMAS DAY: showers, chance of an afternoon storm
BOXING DAY: showers, chance of an afternoon storm
New Years Eve: showers, chance of an afternoon storm
New Years Day: showers, chance of an afternoon storm
Australia Day: cyclone

:-)
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#909183 - 14/12/2010 18:21 Re: Christmas, Boxing and New Years Day Weather Predictions [Re: shama]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 5793
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Forecast for Broome

Sat 24th December. Cyclone warning for Broome residents. Cyclone Santa Cat 4 located 120kms NW of broome. Strong to Gale Force winds in the morning developing into Gale to storm force by evening. Peak gusts around midnight with a period of hurricane force winds. Seas 5m on a swell of 6-8m and rising. Coastal inundation possible.

Sun 25th December. Cyclone warning for Broome residents. Cyclone Santa has remarkably downsized overnight dumping plenty of presents and will dissapate over land as he heads back to antarctica.

Thats what I will be telling the kids as we are bunkered down this xmas. Hope not but have a feeling a few cyclones this way around Xmas day.
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Cable Beach 2013/14 Wet Season Total - 867mm

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#909291 - 14/12/2010 23:09 Re: Christmas, Boxing and New Years Day Weather Predictions [Re: Popeye]
ColdsnapIII Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/01/2007
Posts: 6492
Loc: Mount Macedon, VIC
Out in fantasy land, EC has us near the centre of quite a large high. Christmas Eve would be cool to cold here in Mount Macedon, probably 6C to 8C and then Christmas day would be around mid 20s, 24C probably and around 27C in Melbourne. The chances of this exact scenario coming off 240hrs out though is probably around 1%

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#909367 - 15/12/2010 09:11 Re: Christmas, Boxing and New Years Day Weather Predictions [Re: ColdsnapIII]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 8991
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
For Armidale:

Forecast for Christmas Day
Fine, becoming partly cloudy during the afternoon. Light to moderate N'ly winds.
Min: 12
Max: 26

Forecast for Boxing Day
Mainly fine, with the slight chance of an afternoon shower or storm. Moderate NW'ly winds.
Min: 14
Max: 27

Forecast for New Years Day
Fine morning. An afternoon/evening shower or storm. Light N to NW'ly winds, becoming a moderate E'ly in the evening.
Min: 15
Max: 27

Forecast for Australia Day
Fine, mostly cloudy. Mild. Light S to SW'ly winds, tending moderate SE'ly by mid morning, possibly fresh at times during the afternoon.
Min: 14
Max: 23
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
August 2014 Rainfall: 75.4mm (Aug Avg. 78.7mm) // August 2014 Raindays: 5 (Aug Avg. 8.1 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 736.8mm (Jan-Aug Avg. 1099.8mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 77 (Jan-Aug Avg. 93.8 raindays)
2013: 1746.8mm // 2012: 1429.0mm // 2011: 2008.6mm

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#909526 - 15/12/2010 16:00 Re: Christmas, Boxing and New Years Day Weather Predictions [Re: Seabreeze]
DrizzlyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2008
Posts: 3775
Loc: Southern Sydney
The Christmas forecasts are now on the WZ homepage. They've gone for 26C for Sydney, and 27C for Melbourne which was Coldsnap's prediction. Basically means they have no idea so they'll go with something around the average.

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#909561 - 15/12/2010 16:57 Re: Christmas, Boxing and New Years Day Weather Predictions [Re: DrizzlyBear]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2438
Loc: Zetland, Sydney, NSW
Hopefully a nice hot Christmas/New Year, god only knows were long overdue. I was surprised to know that Obs Hill has never had a Christmas Day over 40c would you believe. The highest Christmas Day temperature ever recorded there is only 38.6c back in 1868.

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#909665 - 15/12/2010 18:33 Re: Christmas, Boxing and New Years Day Weather Predictions [Re: CoastalStorm22]
Canberra's Weather Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/11/2005
Posts: 1139
Loc: Canberra
Christmas is a time for snow, not hot weather, CoastalStorm.

Unfortunately because we are not well-positioned for snow, it would still be appropriate to be at least spared hot weather at Christmas. If it is cold at Christmas, it would be more "Christmassy" because it's the closest thing we can ever hope for seeing a white Christmas here is totally and completely out of the question by any stretch of the imagination.

Oh by the way, "forecasts" including names like "Cyclone Santa", sounds rather weird to me. crazy My understanding is, this thread was about guessing what it would be like at Christmas. Stretching to New Year is a little too far out of the forecasting capabilities we have at the moment.
_________________________
Too many above-average temperatures in the mainstream general air environment. Stagnant high pressure systems (not like they used to?). What's going on?????

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#909670 - 15/12/2010 18:39 Re: Christmas, Boxing and New Years Day Weather Predictions [Re: Canberra's Weather]
DrizzlyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2008
Posts: 3775
Loc: Southern Sydney
Um, no CW, we're in the Southern Hemisphere, so hot weather is to be expected. As much as I would like snow at Xmas, it's a NH thing, unless you live in the Vic Alps or on Mt. Wellington and even then it's a freak event. We can have a white Xmas though if we score a hailstorm or ash.

I agree with CS22, we've been quite lucky with Xmas over the past few years. I think one year (2007?) we struggled to break 20C, the year before was the white Xmas in the Vic Alps which produced a pleasant 25C day in Sydney with low DPs.

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#909880 - 16/12/2010 08:55 Re: Christmas, Boxing and New Years Day Weather Predictions [Re: DrizzlyBear]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 5684
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
I've been lucky enough to have a white Christmas on Mt Wellington - great fun and many others around at the time felt the same. smile

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#909900 - 16/12/2010 09:31 Re: Christmas, Boxing and New Years Day Weather Predictions [Re: DaveM]
_Johnno_ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1357
Fine and sunny here Christmas day 25c here for Melbourne

Boxing Day: Fine and warmer Max 32c.

NYE: Few showers chance of thunderstorms. Humid. Max 30c.

NYD: Showers chance of storms. Max 27c
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#910629 - 17/12/2010 10:46 Re: Christmas, Boxing and New Years Day Weather Predictions [Re: _Johnno_]
Canberra's Weather Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/11/2005
Posts: 1139
Loc: Canberra
I sure hope my prediction for Christmas Day is wrong.......

.........up until now the easterlies have kept that heat confined to the west, but I don't know how much longer our luck can hold out......
_________________________
Too many above-average temperatures in the mainstream general air environment. Stagnant high pressure systems (not like they used to?). What's going on?????

Top
#910656 - 17/12/2010 11:57 Re: Christmas, Boxing and New Years Day Weather Predictions [Re: Canberra's Weather]
Frangipani Fran Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 40
Loc: Toowoomba
Hi
This is my first time on this forum - so hi all. Can anyone help me. I am trying to find out the temperature and humidity on Christmas day 1994 in Cairns. We still talk about how hot it was. Do you know how I can find out this info - cheers

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