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#1398798 - 26/12/2016 20:21 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 2877
Loc: Yatala, Gold Coast QLD
Yep hoping for some good rain, must be something about constant rain its just so soothing. Had a few good bursts Xmas day which was really good. As for EC still looks to be showing quite a nice setup synoptically, probably still a bit out of the 3 day outlook but looks more realistic.

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#1398843 - 27/12/2016 09:33 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4237
Loc: Wynnum
Wynnum Nth 24 hour rain 3.4mm.
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#1398871 - 27/12/2016 13:55 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: retired weather man]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 1727
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Blink and you'll miss it.



18z GFS progging 400+ mm for coastal parts of SEQ.

A weak surface low forming around CQ drags the monsoon trough down dumping the rain. Same potential system others have talked about earlier.

We'll definitely get rain from this. EC is now consistently saying falls of 50 mm for Bris over Jan 2/3. Last 3 runs of GFS have had 150, 50, 400 over SEQ. Everything depends on the setup for where the falls hit and how much. Whole week to go still so anything could happen.

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#1398873 - 27/12/2016 14:04 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4272
Loc: Brisbane
Was just taking a look at that run. First really big rainfall event forecast for quite a while. Hoping to see it hold in subsequent runs.

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#1398892 - 27/12/2016 16:33 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 2700
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Interesting looking at BOMs SST chart, still a narrow cold area south of Fraser, with a warm tongue offshore past Byron. CS warming up nicely with the Gulf SST really hot.
If that Low does make its way down, hoping for a Dam filler.

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#1398893 - 27/12/2016 16:37 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8299
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
GFS 00z still holds it, 400mm+ bullseye right over Bris

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#1398895 - 27/12/2016 16:55 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
Blowin' Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 804
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
It looks like it could be a bit of an extended rain event.
Some hint that it just doesn't clear out in the showery/rain conditions continue for a while.
Someone start a thread and make it go away!

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#1398905 - 27/12/2016 17:47 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6283
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
EC still looks nothing like that.

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#1398909 - 27/12/2016 18:20 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5167
Loc: Diamond Valley
The following extract from the extended outlook for next Sunday to Tuesday is instructive:

Quote:
The monsoon trough will likely extend through the Gulf of Carpentaria into far northern Queensland through the outlook period, though at this stage the development of lows on the monsoon trough is expected to focus more through the Top End of the country as opposed to Queensland longitudes. There is some uncertainty with the extension south of the monsoon trough through the outlook period -
(my emphases)

The present uncertainty is the disparity between GFS and EC. In the coming days with some consensus, we shall see which one of these scenarios prevails. For what it's worth at this early stage, my money's on GFS, for the simple reason that it does better than EC when it comes to the development and movement of monsoon troughs.
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#1398915 - 27/12/2016 19:07 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
Colin Maitland Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2210
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
Water Vapour imagery has been interesting to watch on this one. Just have to watch over the next 24-48 hours
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shwvgms.html

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#1398923 - 27/12/2016 19:31 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 2700
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
All that yummy moisture to the north of it.

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#1398927 - 27/12/2016 19:56 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
Squeako_88 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2005
Posts: 387
Loc: Elimbah 4516
EC's Ensemble showing the uncertainty of the developments/spread of the low off the north QLD coast in tonight's run. I won't be surprised if 2 lows will eventually be the outcome by how active the monsoon trough will be. One to move west the other south.
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#1398945 - 27/12/2016 20:59 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6283
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Still pretty well nothing on ACCESS-G. I don't have much faith in GFS, CMC or NOCRAPS at all tbh.

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#1398953 - 27/12/2016 21:15 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1495
Loc: Kingaroy
I wonder why ACCESS isn't picking it up?

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#1398954 - 27/12/2016 21:24 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: Chris Stumer]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 1727
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: Chris Stumer
I wonder why ACCESS isn't picking it up?


Because it's not a sure thing. GFS is just one possible scenario.

I actually like Access-G. Has a nice trough with a big southerly change coming through perfectly on time next Monday. Would be good storm action. Looks like we're going to win either way (GFS or Access-G).

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#1398970 - 27/12/2016 22:25 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
Blowin' Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 804
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
Not at all certain, just interesting to watch.
Beats Dry July.

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#1398973 - 27/12/2016 22:37 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6283
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Having flashbacks to the 2 Jan 2009 non-event here. http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/710306/1. I wonder how long GFS and NOGAPS will persist with it this time?

Even if it doesn't happen, there's still a front moving through next week, but because storms are so hit and miss I think many of us would just prefer a widespread rain event at this point.

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#1398980 - 27/12/2016 23:20 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1495
Loc: Kingaroy
That what we need at the moment is a widespread rain event considering the storm season here is pretty poor lately and Brisbane's dams are starting to drop again.

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#1399018 - 28/12/2016 02:13 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
Twister1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 496
Loc: Chadstone Vic
If its still there Friday night I will get excited but every model so so different.
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#1399023 - 28/12/2016 06:14 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - March 2005 to December 2016 [Archive] [Re: JEFF.H.]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6283
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
WOW @ EC this morning, it now has a second low and huge convergence coming down the coast but stalling on the Capricornia Coast. One step closer to GFS, not quite as far south though. Definitely an eye opener now.

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