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#923397 - 09/01/2011 03:12 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: Hinezy]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Only a very light drizzle falling where I am, still plenty of loud thunder around though.

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#923402 - 09/01/2011 03:21 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: Mega]
markm9 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/03/2009
Posts: 1354
Loc: bris
The Access model looks like it is ramping up the totals on Sunday and Monday for SEQ.

Looks like they are going for 200-300mm on both days for SEQ.

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#923403 - 09/01/2011 03:27 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: markm9]
Roddy001 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 20/12/2010
Posts: 42
Loc: Hervey Bay, QLD
Looks like we might be in for a bit of a light show here..




Is there any way to capture the animated gif by the bom radar or weatherzone radar? I've seen some people post to a link that shows the progression of the loop radar on other pages but dont quite know how they're doing it..


Edited by Roddy001 (09/01/2011 03:29)

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#923404 - 09/01/2011 03:29 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: Roddy001]
DanubeRS Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/10/2010
Posts: 254
Loc: Ormiston, SE QLD

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#923407 - 09/01/2011 03:30 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: Roddy001]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
It's trying it's heart out but it's all talk so far.

Funny thing is the 12z runs of the models I've seen (ACCESS-R and 12z GFS which is currently coming in as I type) have completely missed it, forecasting 0mm along the Fraser Coast from 10pm - 4am this morning.

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#923409 - 09/01/2011 03:39 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: Mega]
Hinezy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/06/2007
Posts: 1370
Loc: Red Hill SE QLD
Yeah i can distantly see the lightning from down here as well.. just very distant flashes.. i swear i saw one down to the south just before as well! It's starting to rain lightly here now.

Mega i just sent you a PM too!
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#923413 - 09/01/2011 04:56 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: Hinezy]
JRB Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/01/2011
Posts: 115
Loc: Cleveland, Redlands, QLD
Absolutely bucketing down here on the coast at Bargara on the coast near Bundaberg.
If the rest of these cells moving across Fraser and the Tiaro area are the same there'll be some pretty big totals appear shortly!

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#923415 - 09/01/2011 05:21 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: JRB]
JRB Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/01/2011
Posts: 115
Loc: Cleveland, Redlands, QLD
Is anyone else surprised to see the majority of this morning's rain continuing to stick to the Fraser Coast? I was expecting the most radar action to be appearing around Brisbane by now if not even further South especially as this is what the models have continued to focus on.

I'm also surprised to see these falls holding a fair way inland.... areas North of Gayndah in the Burnett seem to be getting a bit at the moment.

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#923416 - 09/01/2011 05:30 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: JRB]
Roddy001 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 20/12/2010
Posts: 42
Loc: Hervey Bay, QLD
Thanks Danube.

Currently waiting for the lightning to pass over Fraser so I can start taking some photos! SLR is ready to go on tripod smile

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#923417 - 09/01/2011 05:42 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: Roddy001]
Squeako da Magnifico. Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/06/2005
Posts: 3197
Loc: Caboolture, SE QLD
Things have definitely improved since last nights disappointing efforts. Getting heavy rain on and off in the last half hour. I like the look of that complex happening up in the Widebay region!
_________________________
March 2012 rainfall: 0.0mm (avg: 158.1mm)
2012 Rainfall YTD: 1016.0mm (avg: 1385.6mm)
2011 Total: 1734.6mm

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#923418 - 09/01/2011 05:43 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: Squeako da Magnifico.]
Squeako da Magnifico. Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/06/2005
Posts: 3197
Loc: Caboolture, SE QLD
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for heavy rainfall leading to localised flash flooding and potentially worsening
the existing river flood situation
For people in the Southeast Coast district and southern parts of the Wide Bay
and Burnett.

Issued at 4:40 am on Sunday 9 January 2011

Synoptic Situation: At 4am EST, an upper level low was located offshore of the
Capricorn coast. A surface trough was located offshore of the southern
Queensland coast. Both of these systems are expected to move closer to the coast
today.

Rain areas and thunderstorms are expected to increase further through the
Southeast Coast district and southern parts of the Wide Bay and Burnett district
today. Some heavy falls are likely which may lead to localised flash flooding
and/or worsen existing river flooding.
_________________________
March 2012 rainfall: 0.0mm (avg: 158.1mm)
2012 Rainfall YTD: 1016.0mm (avg: 1385.6mm)
2011 Total: 1734.6mm

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#923419 - 09/01/2011 06:04 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: Squeako da Magnifico.]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1405
Loc: Toowoomba
JRB I am amazed at the lack of rain Off the coast especially when this huge se to ne flow is supposed to be developing. After that huge mass we saw coming in yesterday collapsed I am determined not to spend any where near the amount of time wathing the radar. Have better things to do.It will be interesting to see how it all unfolds.

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#923420 - 09/01/2011 06:08 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: NotsohopefulPete]
Taylsy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2007
Posts: 1249
Loc: Pacific Pines, Gold Coast
Queensland State Forecast
IDQ10700Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology Queensland

Queensland State Forecast
Issued at 4:45 am EST on Sunday 9 January 2011

Warning Summary at issue time

For the latest warning information please check the Bureau's web site www.bom.gov.au/qld

Weather Situation
A weak monsoon trough extends over the northern tropics. An upper level low lies offshore of the Capricorn coast and is expected to drift west today. A surface trough lies over the southern Coral Sea and is expected to drift west towards the Fraser and southern Queensland coasts today.

Forecast for the rest of Sunday
Rain areas and thunderstorms over southeastern districts and the Maranoa with moderate to heavy falls likely about the Southeast Coast district and southern Wide Bay and Burnett district. Showers and isolated thunderstorms over the tropics, central districts and the Warrego, more widespread with rain areas over northwestern Queensland and Cape York Peninsula. Fine elsewhere apart from the chance of isolated late showers and thunderstorms over the southern Channel Country and Central West. Moderate to fresh SE to NE winds over southern Queensland, strong at times along the southeast coast and about the higher ground of the southeast interior. Moderate to fresh SW to NW winds in the far north. Light winds elsewhere.

Forecast for Monday
The upper level low is expected to move southwest towards the Warrego while the surface trough off the southeast coast moves inland. Rain areas and thunderstorms continue over southeastern districts and the Maranoa with some heavy falls likely over the southern Burnett, Southeast Coast and southeastern parts of the Darling Downs and Granite Belt district. Rain areas and thunderstorms are also expected over the far southern interior due to a trough lying southwest of the state. The monsoon trough will drift slowly south over the Northern Territory, extending rain areas and thunderstorms south over the Queensland tropics. Mostly fine over the northern Channel Country. Showers and isolated thunderstorms elsewhere.

Forecast for Tuesday
The upper level low will continue to move southwest and merge with a trough over eastern South Australia. Moist NE winds will continue to produce rain areas over southeastern districts, with possible locally heavy falls over the Southeast Coast District and southeastern parts of the Darling Downs and Granite Belt district. The monsoon trough will continue to move south over the Northern Territory, extending rain areas and thunderstorms further south over the Queensland tropics and the Northwest district. Isolated showers and thunderstorms continuing elsewhere, more scattered in the Channel Country.
_________________________
Between the bush and the beach.
2019 YTD: 221 mm; 2018: 1,078 mm; 2017: 1,495 mm; 2016: 812 mm; 2015: 1,932 mm; 2014: 943 mm; 2013: 1,501 mm; 2012 1,682 mm; 2011 1,032 mm; 2010 2,151 mm; 2009 1,447 mm.

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#923421 - 09/01/2011 06:32 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: Taylsy]
Dark&Stormy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/05/2007
Posts: 1619
Loc: Kilkivan, Southern Burnett QLD...
What a way to wake up from the whole house shaking with thunder, pouring down...here we go again.

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#923422 - 09/01/2011 06:37 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: Taylsy]
nocturnal1 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 04/03/2010
Posts: 1085
Loc: Murwillumbah, NE NSW
10mm overnight, 93.5mm for the event. Heavy cloud outside but no rain at the moment - radar looks great up north though. I am growing slightly pessimistic, probably prematurely. If tonight doesn't deliver, I might have to rethink my trust in rainfall models, lol.

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#923423 - 09/01/2011 06:45 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: nocturnal1]
pkgjmg Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/01/2009
Posts: 2955
Loc: Mt Warren Park
the real rain isn't supposed to come in until later today/early tonight - so i wouldn't give up just yet nocturnal1 .. although i really hope it doesn't come off !

we've had a few showers on and off through the night but nothing that would probably register in the rain gauge ..

will be interesting to see what happens today ..
_________________________
** sunshine and lollipops and rainbows every where **

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#923424 - 09/01/2011 06:52 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: pkgjmg]
pkgjmg Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/01/2009
Posts: 2955
Loc: Mt Warren Park
hmmmmmm just checked the GFS and it's got anywhere between 175 - 275 for the next 3 days .. frown i really don't want any more rain - the chook pen is a swamp and there is more mud then grass up the back ..........
_________________________
** sunshine and lollipops and rainbows every where **

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#923425 - 09/01/2011 07:02 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: pkgjmg]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4553
Loc: Brisbane
The Somerest catchment is currently getting hammered with rainfall rates in excess of 50mm/h and some of this is also going to hit the Wivenhoe catchment area.

If this rainfall rate stays over the area its currently positioned for any length of time inflows into Somerset and Wivenhoe will reach major flood level by lunch.

Watch for rapid rises in the Stanley River the Brisbane River above Wivenhoe to occur this morning.

If the real rain isn't going to arrive til later were in deep trouble.



Edited by Locke (09/01/2011 07:03)
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#923428 - 09/01/2011 07:20 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: Locke]
grayarea Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/05/2007
Posts: 534
Loc: Buderim, Sunshine Coast
Absolutely pouring here at the moment. Woken by heavy rain but no thunder yet. Looks to be building back on radar. Looks good for the Nutrigrain Ironman series at Noosa today!

Just emptied gauge 50mm approx 20mm in last 30 mins.


Edited by grayarea (09/01/2011 07:27)
Edit Reason: Added info

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#923429 - 09/01/2011 07:26 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: Locke]
Hinezy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/06/2007
Posts: 1370
Loc: Red Hill SE QLD
Yeah Locke that's a scary thought and definitely a real possibility as the day goes on! I'm thinking there's going to be a good chance of some storms today as well. The atmosphere is so loaded at the moment so it won't take much.
_________________________
Facebook: 'South Brisbane Storms'
www.southbrisbanestorms.com

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