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#924644 - 10/01/2011 00:43 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: Jeff Wehl]
markm9 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/03/2009
Posts: 1354
Loc: bris
Access had the rain intensifying from the early hours of the morning, so if this is true we are in some strife.

Does some a bit archaic and manual the Wivenhoe procedures, understandable given it is 26yrs since installation I suppose.

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#924645 - 10/01/2011 00:45 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: Dave-Wx]
Michael Bath Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 20/06/2001
Posts: 2447
Loc: McLeans Ridges, Northern River...
Quote:

Don't forget that EWN is just the messenger, it relays the information from various govt departments...BoM, BCC etc etc.

However for the record, I too am unimpressed that there hasn't been some form of notification for everyone in SEQ since late yesterday (Saturday) that there is going to be a particularly severe event unfolding...and given the 'main course' has only just started and we already have flood levels approaching the '74 benchmark' in the Upper Brisbane and Stanley it should be telling the powers that be that there is an incredibly high chance that tomorrow could bring something very very big (as forecast by the models) all the way down to the border, and possibly into the Northern Rivers too.


Until BCC want to properly pay for the EWN service no-one is going to get multiple alerts. The idea is to provide the initial heads-up then people can check net, radio and be proactive to protect themselves and their property. BCC asked us to send an extra alert this evening but that has ONLY gone to people who live within the BCC boundary. 20,000 or so SMS, plus landline calls are not free.

EWN could provide a much more comprehensive service but the funding is extremely limited. Insurance and other companies are happy for us to to do it for 'free'. I for one work way too many hours for very little reward.

Excuse the off-topic but it came up...

Some decent showers around here atm but a big fail so far.

Michael

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#924646 - 10/01/2011 00:48 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: Michael Bath]
ExpressRex Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 09/01/2011
Posts: 15
Anyone know where the 'heavy rain in early hours of morning' mentioned in the ewn is due to hit?

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#924647 - 10/01/2011 00:48 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: markm9]
Steven78 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2005
Posts: 314
Loc: Heathwood Brisbane South
Originally Posted By: markm9
Access had the rain intensifying from the early hours of the morning, so if this is true we are in some strife.

Does some a bit archaic and manual the Wivenhoe procedures, understandable given it is 26yrs since installation I suppose.


This modification was only done about 4 years ago to allow for a 1 in 6,000 flood


http://www.qwc.qld.gov.au/planning/pdf/s...somerset-da.pdf


Edited by Steven78 (10/01/2011 00:52)
Edit Reason: Correction

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#924648 - 10/01/2011 00:48 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: JRB]
Foehn Correspondent Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/11/2001
Posts: 675
Loc: Bardon 4065
No explosive in a fuse plug in a spillway. An area of soft material like sand is put in the spillway, as water reaches that point, the sand washes away allowing the water to escape.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuse_plug
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#924649 - 10/01/2011 00:49 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: markm9]
JRB Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/01/2011
Posts: 115
Loc: Cleveland, Redlands, QLD
I don't think we'll see Wivenhoe maxed out until at least lunchtime tomorrow with current falls. Those last few meters are going to take an awful lot of water. If it gets there I'm 50-50 as to whether the rain will still be enough to push the decent flows over the top.

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#924650 - 10/01/2011 00:49 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: Michael Bath]
markm9 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/03/2009
Posts: 1354
Loc: bris
The Brisbane R at Gregor Ck has maxed out by the looks.



Edited by markm9 (10/01/2011 00:49)

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#924653 - 10/01/2011 00:58 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: markm9]
Jeff Wehl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2011
Posts: 94
Loc: Jindalee, QLD
apoligies for bringing 74 in again but the current conditions have sparked a reasonable possibility missing several factors as mentioned previously. one been the storm surge and high tides which at a guess would be up to 3.5m? secondly we currently have complete control but that could soon disapear.

i think the key tonight will be intensifying rain over the bremer lockyear catchements with continued falls over wivenhoe. if it simply moves over the bremer and stops over wivenhoe it will be a complete engineering triumph. if it starts over the bremer and continues over wivenhoe it could be aa huge engineering test!

its still a long way off but considering how rare this situation is - incredibly within the realms of posibility.

thank you so much for all the weather info!

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#924654 - 10/01/2011 00:58 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: Michael Bath]
Redgum Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 09/01/2011
Posts: 46
Hi
Quick first post before I go to bed.
This link
http://www.qwc.qld.gov.au/planning/pdf/s...somerset-da.pdf
gives a good overview of the contigency storage in both Somerset and Wivenhoe.

As others have indicated the height is now probably just shy of 70m
The top of the radial gates are at 73 metres.
After 73m it is not about flood mitigation - it is about saving the dam from potential failure.
How close we get to 73m over the next 24 hours remains to be seen
Cheers

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#924655 - 10/01/2011 00:59 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: ExpressRex]
JEFF.H. Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 26/12/2002
Posts: 2897
Loc: Oxenford
COol MB I for one have it and then forward it on to all my contacts in phone so effectively I wear some coast in my part also but happy to do so.... Yes one would think for the heads Up service EWN offers Gov. would fund it fully...

I feel the 74 M flood point of Wivenhoe could be tested by this time tomorrow night given current inflows and Somerset yet to Crack the gates, oh and not to mention the continuing Rainfall.

Sat and WV Loops starting to reflect a bloody DISASTER in SEQ

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#924656 - 10/01/2011 00:59 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: markm9]
StevefromSurfers Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/03/2010
Posts: 295
Loc: Surfers Paradise
Bribie Island Road now blocked in both directions. Alternative route Beachmere Rd (as mentioned earlier) also blocked.

Police Info

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#924658 - 10/01/2011 01:03 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: Redgum]
snowmad Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/06/2005
Posts: 918
Loc: Bowen
For those that use Mt Crosby Weir Road to access Ipswich area I came across it about 30mins ago and water was lapping at the roadway QFRS and SEQ water crew were there and by the looks of it were getting ready to shut the access gates across the weir. Amount of water flowing down the Brisbane river I have never seen and the speed the flow as well. If rain band sits over Bremer and oxley creek catchments then levels down stream in Brisbane will become concerning by Tomorrow afternoon.

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#924659 - 10/01/2011 01:04 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: StevefromSurfers]
Stingray Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 20/01/2004
Posts: 32
Loc: Ningi, Queensland
Originally Posted By: StevefromSurfers
Bribie Island Road now blocked in both directions. Alternative route Beachmere Rd (as mentioned earlier) also blocked.

Police Info

lucky we have food n water .. and no need to go anywhere
_________________________
In the words of my 4 1/2 yr old twin girls!! Dad!!!! Are we goin storm chasing?

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#924660 - 10/01/2011 01:05 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: StevefromSurfers]
!SCHUMMY! Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/04/2008
Posts: 2915
Loc: Jimboomba, SEQ
thought this would be interesting!! HERE are the LI's for SEQ. if you cycle through each time you will see the lower LI's moving towards/over the coast from now onwards, this will enhance convective rain further south to the border i would imagine. correct me if im wrong smile

i agree with you jeff, with the falls predicted tomorrow and tuesday this is going to be a big disaster around SEQ and towns further north and west. Up until now wivenhoe has done a great job with holding back flood waters and is still doing so but now we have to see how high it does get....

EDIT: we should see wivenhoe reach 70m within the next hour at the current rate of rise!!


Edited by !SCHUMMY! (10/01/2011 01:07)
Edit Reason: more info as usual

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#924661 - 10/01/2011 01:09 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: Steven78]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4553
Loc: Brisbane
Originally Posted By: Steven78
Wivenhoe is now going up at of a rate 1cm per minute, At this rate it will be at 74m at around 7am in the morning

09/01/2011 22:37 69.55
09/01/2011 22:40 69.57

http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDQ65389/IDQ65389.540177.tbl.shtml



Not sure this is quite correct. You cant really take an accurate reading from a 3 minute spacing. The actual current rate of increase is about 18cm per hour. At this rate it would take 24 hours to reach 74m.

However, each additional meter in water height acutally takes more water than the meter before as the dam surface area increases. This will slightly slow down the rate of increase.

But!! Somerset is about to reach maximum capacity. If the rate of rise at Somerset continues for anohter 24 hrs it will reach 105 to 106 meters. This will drastically increase the inflow into Wivenhoe.

We really need the rain to stop soon. Damn I can't sleep. I think we got 24 hours though until the human waste matter really hits the fan.
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#924663 - 10/01/2011 01:15 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: !SCHUMMY!]
Fyne Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/02/2010
Posts: 123
Loc: NW Brisbane
At the moment most of the Convective Rain seems to be crossing just to the north of Brisbane,Straight Towards The WIVENHOE/Somerset Storage Catchments,Looking At Those Predicted conditions Schummy posted , The next few days could well be disasterous in proportion .

BOM, needs to reassess the situation( As I hope they are) because this outdated warning http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDQ20805.html still indicates most stations recording a fall when in reality most of them should be rising.
_________________________
Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather only different kinds of good weather.

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#924664 - 10/01/2011 01:15 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: !SCHUMMY!]
nocturnal1 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 04/03/2010
Posts: 1085
Loc: Murwillumbah, NE NSW
^ Thanks Schummy! Going off this, south of the border may actually get some decent rain early tomorrow afternoon.

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#924665 - 10/01/2011 01:15 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: Locke]
JEFF.H. Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 26/12/2002
Posts: 2897
Loc: Oxenford
lol Locke If SEQ Water go by the book and guidelines Somerset is not allowed to reach 104M , the Max design level is between 3M and 4M above full , they dont say exactly but 104M is 202000ML which is 47000ML over max flood storage.
Both cone valves would be wide open but for sure, Im waiting for the taper off when they open the gates

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#924666 - 10/01/2011 01:17 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: Locke]
snowmad Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/06/2005
Posts: 918
Loc: Bowen
Laidley Creek , sandy Creek catchments receiving falls since 9am btw 70-120mm. Sandy Creek in Major flood and rising laidley creek moderate flood well on way to major flood levels. Bremer catchment still yet to receive much mostlt 20-30mm however that may change in next few hours. If rain fall stalls over all three catchments Brisbane , Lockyer Valley and Bremer areas and we see totals up around 150-200mm then butts are going to pucker to be quite frank. WATL and other models seem to support this , disregarding models watching real time obs via Water Vapor sat run , radar etc supports this. Trouble with a capital T awaits Ipswich and Brisbane over next day or two. Also interesting , rather alarming , talk on Coral Sea Cyclone forum by NITSO who tends to read things pretty well that TC may approach towards Central/Southern Qld coast in a week or so time. Currently 999HPA low depression moving SW from vanuatu. Also 6.9 earthquake in Vanuatu this evening last thing needed is a tidal surge. Lots happening in the weather at the momnet we live in interesting times.

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#924667 - 10/01/2011 01:17 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: Fyne]
!SCHUMMY! Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/04/2008
Posts: 2915
Loc: Jimboomba, SEQ
Originally Posted By: Fyweather
BOM, needs to reassess the situation( As I hope they are) because this outdated warning http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDQ20805.html still indicates most stations recording a fall when in reality most of them should be rising.


that link was updated at 10:55pm, so it is fairly recent....even i havent been looking at the time on that warning blush


Edited by !SCHUMMY! (10/01/2011 01:18)
Edit Reason: quote included

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