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#924771 - 10/01/2011 08:25 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: Locke]
JEFF.H. Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 26/12/2002
Posts: 2897
Loc: Oxenford
Somerset is at FULL FLOOD LEVEL the gates are being opened as the height is tapering off fast and the "table" indicates it has almost stop rising !

Now this has occurred its fair to say Wivenhoe will continue to rise at the same rate even though it is spreading out further ... there is now the Stanley and Kilcoy running Major flood levels into it also. Also Keep in mind the gates at Wivenhoe are being opened wider and wider and when the TW gauge at Wivenhoe stops rising this may well be an indication that the Gates are opened 100% !

The upslope convective system offshore has just weakened and is slipping SW towards the coast ... where the next one forms if it does will be critical

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#924773 - 10/01/2011 08:28 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: JEFF.H.]
pkgjmg Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/01/2009
Posts: 2955
Loc: Mt Warren Park
just looking at the 512klm radar - is that another 2 rain bands forming ? .. it's been teeming on and off here most of the morning - nothing spectacular but i assume that will change very shortly ?
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#924774 - 10/01/2011 08:28 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: pkgjmg]
Squid Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/09/2005
Posts: 9535
Loc: Murgon
150mm to 7 am here

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#924776 - 10/01/2011 08:32 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: snowmad]
james1977 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2009
Posts: 2946
Loc: collingwood park
[quote=snowmad]Bom live on ABC radio stating falls of 200mm widespread across Brisbane and Ipswich areas today with high expectations of falls up to and possibly over 300mm this is going pear shaped really fast. How long before we start hearing SEWS before these warnings are given over radio as incredible amount of people have no idea how serious the flooding is becoming in the SEQ areas. quote]

If this happens, i think the devestation of 74 will be nothing compared to this, we have more houses/idustry in low lying areas, more roads and drains that just wont be able to cope with the deluge alongside of saturated country and full rivers/ creeks, then add to it the possibilty of the dam gates being opened fully .
I think its about time the local governments wake up and smell the roses and act on the possiblity of major flooding occouring
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#924777 - 10/01/2011 08:32 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: pkgjmg]
care Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/03/2009
Posts: 159
Loc: Pt Talburpin,Redland Bay
clouds are scooting. fat drops of rain starting to increase in frequency, sounds like a train comming. loud as.


Edited by care (10/01/2011 08:34)
Edit Reason: spelling doh!

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#924778 - 10/01/2011 08:34 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: pkgjmg]
chamellieon Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/12/2010
Posts: 114
Loc: Nudgee QLD

Moggill Ferry - this morning January 10, 2011 @630am

And the MT Crosby Weir - This morning, January 10, 2011 @7am


What a sight!
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#924779 - 10/01/2011 08:35 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: snowmad]
richo p Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/07/2008
Posts: 905
Loc: Brisbane, Albany Creek
Whiteout conditions here with squally winds! All I can say is thank god for Wivenhoe dam otherwise the flooding situation around the lower Brisbane River could have been a lot worse by now! If we were to get another 200mm over the catchment today and a further 200-300mm over the Bremer then we could have a very concerning situation on our hands smirk

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#924780 - 10/01/2011 08:37 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: pkgjmg]
james1977 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2009
Posts: 2946
Loc: collingwood park
Originally Posted By: pkgjmg
just looking at the 512klm radar - is that another 2 rain bands forming ? .. it's been teeming on and off here most of the morning - nothing spectacular but i assume that will change very shortly ?


Sure does look like more convection building out to sea now, one would assume we could expect this sort of activity to happen most of the day
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#924781 - 10/01/2011 08:39 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: james1977]
pkgjmg Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/01/2009
Posts: 2955
Loc: Mt Warren Park
well jamie you know your self mum and phyliss have been saying for weeks now that this is so much like 1974 it's scarey ..
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#924782 - 10/01/2011 08:39 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: richo p]
Tulloch Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/03/2008
Posts: 699
Loc: Brisbane, Carseldine
All 5 sluice gates open at Somerset now - information on the Seqwater website has just updated.

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#924784 - 10/01/2011 08:40 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: james1977]
MissLoo Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 28/06/2007
Posts: 35
Loc: Brisbane QLD
Thanks for answering my question earlier everyone. My husband is planning on working today driving his truck around Logan/Brisbane- would you guys advise he stays home?

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#924785 - 10/01/2011 08:41 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: MissLoo]
richo p Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/07/2008
Posts: 905
Loc: Brisbane, Albany Creek
Here's the info on the dams from SEQ Water

Water Release Update (Monday 10 January, 7.00am)

Wivenhoe Dam
Upstream levels are rising quickly as a result of significant heavy rainfall. The objective for dam operations will be to minimise the impact of urban flooding in areas downstream of the dam.

Gate releases of around 150,000 megalitres a day are underway and are likely to be increased to about 223,00 megalitres per day by late Monday 10 January.

Local Councils have been advised that as a result of Lockyer Creek flows, local runoff and Wivenhoe releases, Twin Bridges, Savages Crossing, Burtons Bridge, Kholo Bridge Colleges Crossing, Fernvale Bridge, and Mt Crosby Weir Bridge may be inundated for several days.

There is currently NO ACCESS to Wivenhoe Dam, including the Spillway Common (Spillway viewing area). The entire site is closed.

Somerset Dam
As a result of rainfall and inflows, water is being released into Wivenhoe through five sluice gates at about 95,000 megalitres per day and is likely to continue until Thursday 13 January. Areas around Kilcoy are likely to be impacted as a result of the rising dam levels.

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#924786 - 10/01/2011 08:43 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: richo p]
care Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/03/2009
Posts: 159
Loc: Pt Talburpin,Redland Bay
low flying planes.what the!

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#924787 - 10/01/2011 08:44 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: richo p]
Johno Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/09/2004
Posts: 816
Loc: Dalby, QLD
I think my house and alot of others will go under at about 3.60 here in dalby! Think it was 3.49 last time and had a little bit to go! Fingers crossed! It's come up VERY fast in the past hour!

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#924789 - 10/01/2011 08:45 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: Johno]
pkgjmg Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/01/2009
Posts: 2955
Loc: Mt Warren Park
Originally Posted By: Johno
I think my house and alot of others will go under at about 3.60 here in dalby! Think it was 3.49 last time and had a little bit to go! Fingers crossed! It's come up VERY fast in the past hour!


best of luck johno ... gee can't beleive you poor guys are about to go go under again frown
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#924791 - 10/01/2011 08:45 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: care]
MissLoo Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 28/06/2007
Posts: 35
Loc: Brisbane QLD
Just saw this in the warning from BOM


GALE WARNING 001 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 09/1925 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03F WAS LOCATED NEAR 18S 169E AT 091500UTC. MOVING SOUTHWEST

AT 10 KNOTS.

EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 120 TO 180 NAUTICAL MILES AWAY FROM

THE CENTRE IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.

AREA OF GALES SLOW MOVING.

THIS IS THE FIRST WARNING FOR THIS SYSTEM.

RE-ISSUED BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE.

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#924793 - 10/01/2011 08:51 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: MissLoo]
Anthony Cornelius Offline
Meteorologist

Registered: 22/05/2001
Posts: 5162
Loc: Brisbane
The water vapour loop has been showing a steady stream of moisture coming into this system from the tropics on the northern edge and is dragging moisture down from the monsoon trough. Though the latest sat image shows widespread convection extending much further east now (all aligned to mover across SE QLD!) Certainly continues to be a concerning situation...

The 256 loop does have a small lull after this current band but you'd expect it to quickly fill in again.

AC
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#924795 - 10/01/2011 08:55 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: Anthony Cornelius]
james1977 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2009
Posts: 2946
Loc: collingwood park
Originally Posted By: Anthony Cornelius
The water vapour loop has been showing a steady stream of moisture coming into this system from the tropics on the northern edge and is dragging moisture down from the monsoon trough. Though the latest sat image shows widespread convection extending much further east now (all aligned to mover across SE QLD!) Certainly continues to be a concerning situation...

The 256 loop does have a small lull after this current band but you'd expect it to quickly fill in again.

AC


Yeah AC its all back building as we speak, sure is panning out to be a concern for those in low lying areas and for the poor buggers already flooded.
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#924796 - 10/01/2011 08:57 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: james1977]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4553
Loc: Brisbane
The increase in release rate has done nothing to slow the rate of increase at Wivenhoe. Still running at 24cm per hour for the past hour.
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#924797 - 10/01/2011 08:57 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: james1977]
james1977 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2009
Posts: 2946
Loc: collingwood park
From ABC Queensland

Emergency Services Queensland (EMQ) says people in Brisbane, the Sunshine Coast and surrounding areas in south-east Queensland need to be prepared for heavy rain and possible flooding.

EMQ regional director Warren Bridson says the ground is sodden and residents need to have a flood plan.

He says it will not take a lot more rain in some places to tip the balance.

"This season has seen very severe weather events and heavy rain and we implore the community to listen to messages and listen to warnings," he said.

"When you hear a Bureau of Meteorology warning that you're likely to get 150 to 200 millimetres of rain, balance that with the difference this year."
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