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#924514 - 09/01/2011 22:18 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: james1977]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4548
Loc: Brisbane
This current round of rainfall moving onshore is likely to be the one that pushes most of the rivers and creeks above the Wivenhoe and Somerset catchments above their 1974 levels.
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#924515 - 09/01/2011 22:21 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: Locke]
Anthony Cornelius Offline
Meteorologist

Registered: 22/05/2001
Posts: 5162
Loc: Brisbane
The satpic is a bit of a concern - with fresh convection occurring on the southeast side of the upper low (which is also the blob of rain heading towards the coast). The fresher convection would container the higher rainfall. The rainband seems to be beefing up as it approaches the coast (not sure if it's intensifying, or just the radar getting a better angle on it).

AC
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#924516 - 09/01/2011 22:22 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: Locke]
pkgjmg Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/01/2009
Posts: 2955
Loc: Mt Warren Park
i've got an 11 month old who's up at 5am - here it is almost 9.20pm i'm normally in bed sound asleep for at least an hour .......... but i can't go to bed - gotta keep watching radar .. maybe if i use toothpicks i'll be ok ? lol ..

seriously tho - this next band looks nasty ..
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#924517 - 09/01/2011 22:22 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: mickyd]
gympieweather Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/09/2002
Posts: 143
Loc: Veteran Weather Station, Queen...
Waiting for the 9:30pm Mary river flood warning from BOM as the headwaters have recieved in excess of 200mm since 9am and here at Veteran (Gympie)we coming up for 150mm since midnight, 60mm since 9:00am. Gympie is headed for a very big flood of around about 20m from my past experience!

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#924519 - 09/01/2011 22:26 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: gympieweather]
gympieweather Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/09/2002
Posts: 143
Loc: Veteran Weather Station, Queen...
For any info in relation to Gympie and surrounds check out www.gympieweather.com links to guages floor and bridge heights...

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#924521 - 09/01/2011 22:27 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: gympieweather]
Taylsy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2007
Posts: 1249
Loc: Pacific Pines, Gold Coast
Originally Posted By: Ted Uebergang
Waiting for the 9:30pm Mary river flood warning from BOM as the headwaters have recieved in excess of 200mm since 9am and here at Veteran (Gympie)we coming up for 150mm since midnight, 60mm since 9:00am. Gympie is headed for a very big flood of around about 20m from my past experience!


Ted - will that take it well over the highway in town eg up to the old big pineapple servo site? or even higher?
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2019 YTD: 221 mm; 2018: 1,078 mm; 2017: 1,495 mm; 2016: 812 mm; 2015: 1,932 mm; 2014: 943 mm; 2013: 1,501 mm; 2012 1,682 mm; 2011 1,032 mm; 2010 2,151 mm; 2009 1,447 mm.

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#924522 - 09/01/2011 22:27 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: gympieweather]
MowerMan Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 20
pk, i feel your pain... i've been getting mostly 2hrs sleep a night lately with work and other things going on, i'm a complete zombie right now but just cannot go to sleep for waiting for impending doom.

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#924523 - 09/01/2011 22:27 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: gympieweather]
pkgjmg Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/01/2009
Posts: 2955
Loc: Mt Warren Park
hmmmmm has this band changed direction - appears to be heading straight for maroochy/caboolture now ?
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#924528 - 09/01/2011 22:30 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: pkgjmg]
james1977 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2009
Posts: 2946
Loc: collingwood park
Originally Posted By: pkgjmg
hmmmmm has this band changed direction - appears to be heading straight for maroochy/caboolture now ?


Still seems to be moving sw but taken on more of a wsw movement,man its humid here...Wont be long till its teeming down
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#924529 - 09/01/2011 22:30 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: Anthony Cornelius]
markm9 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/03/2009
Posts: 1354
Loc: bris
Originally Posted By: Anthony Cornelius
The satpic is a bit of a concern - with fresh convection occurring on the southeast side of the upper low (which is also the blob of rain heading towards the coast). The fresher convection would container the higher rainfall. The rainband seems to be beefing up as it approaches the coast (not sure if it's intensifying, or just the radar getting a better angle on it).

AC


May be the heaviest rain Eddie has seen if it continues to intensify and the telethon still going.

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#924531 - 09/01/2011 22:31 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: gympieweather]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4548
Loc: Brisbane
Its really not easy to figure out at this stage how deep in #### we really are.

Part of me looks at those rises and says theres no way we can avoid serious flooding in Brisbane but then another part of me says 74m is still a long way off for Wivenhoe. Remembering each additional meter requires so much more water than the meter before it. I'm fairly sure they don't allow a greater release rate until it reaches that 74m level so if rainfall eases off by tomorrow and the dam never reaches 74m perhaps we just have Wivenhoe releasing water at 1500m3/sec for the next few weeks with no significant flooding downstream.

What are others thinking right now?
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#924533 - 09/01/2011 22:34 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: gympieweather]
ChrisS Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 09/01/2011
Posts: 12
Loc: Chambers Flat/Logan Reserve QL...
Hi there another newbie here although I have been a lurker for a while. :-) Very calm here ATM - going to stay up a bit longer and see what that next big blob is going to do...

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#924534 - 09/01/2011 22:34 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: Locke]
Stormy1 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/10/2005
Posts: 1872
Locke-I honestly think we are in a little trouble here as current radar imagines is heading out the catchments areas-my thoughts are that the inflows at the moment will be a lot far greater than the releases. But lets hope that the releases are monitored very closely.

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#924535 - 09/01/2011 22:34 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: Taylsy]
gympieweather Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/09/2002
Posts: 143
Loc: Veteran Weather Station, Queen...
Originally Posted By: Taylsy
Originally Posted By: Ted Uebergang
Waiting for the 9:30pm Mary river flood warning from BOM as the headwaters have recieved in excess of 200mm since 9am and here at Veteran (Gympie)we coming up for 150mm since midnight, 60mm since 9:00am. Gympie is headed for a very big flood of around about 20m from my past experience!


Ted - will that take it well over the highway in town eg up to the old big pineapple servo site? or even higher?


Yes mate, about Bank of Gld floor level in Mary St. Check out www.gympieweather.com/hydro.htm

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#924537 - 09/01/2011 22:35 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: markm9]
cbddqld Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/05/2008
Posts: 68

for reference

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#924540 - 09/01/2011 22:36 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: cbddqld]
!SCHUMMY! Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/04/2008
Posts: 2915
Loc: Jimboomba, SEQ
cbdqld - there is a tech thread for images, so it wont be lost in the chit chat smile

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#924542 - 09/01/2011 22:37 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: Locke]
james1977 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2009
Posts: 2946
Loc: collingwood park
Aparently the caboolture river has broken its banks and ppl are asking police if they should self evacuate..
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#924545 - 09/01/2011 22:39 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: mickyd]
stevemack Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/05/2010
Posts: 334
Loc: lockrose
Originally Posted By: mickyd
Originally Posted By: stevemack
as mentioned before the stapy radar and marburg radar are giving different rainfall rates which is more accurate to those in the no.


Mt Stapylton has a higher resolution and is therefore more accurate. Marburg tends to suffer from topography related interferences as well. However, it depends on what one you usually watch, as you get a gauge on what rain to expect from what radar. So going from MArburg to Stapylton, you might think Stapylton is overestimating, and vice versa, where really it's all relative.


Thanks for clarifying that mickyd.

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#924546 - 09/01/2011 22:39 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: james1977]
Lloyd Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/07/2005
Posts: 342
Loc: Carseldine,QLD
140mm so far heavy rain on the way and the winds and gusts have increased in the last few minutes, i cant tell by how much, the weather station outdoor sensor has stopped transmitting. AAARRRGGGG

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#924548 - 09/01/2011 22:40 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: Locke]
windshear Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/02/2008
Posts: 171
Loc: Bonogin, Gold Coast Hinterland
Jeff.H and Foehn Correspondent, thanks for the Wyaralong info, I'd missed the page with Buster's photos - had been planning a flight that way myself but well, between work and weather it hadn't happened as yet.

JRB I'll need something more scientific than "zilch" and "kidding" before I prefer your version of the usefulness of the dam over hydrological modelling. Agreed stage 1 would not have been the ideal scenario, but from what I can see it would still have taken the sting out of the flooding eg reducing peak flows at similar heights to today by around 20%. Interesting that an overlay of the '99 flood levels indicates that stage 1 would have prevented almost all of the structures from being inundated at the same flows. All of which said, I don't have strong feelings either way about the project; I merely raised the possibility that the population downstream may not have been quite so strongly anti under the current circumstances.

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