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#920790 - 04/01/2011 17:56 SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011
snowmad Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/06/2005
Posts: 918
Loc: Bowen
Latest outlook from BOM is for period of rain with moderate /heavy falls over large area of SEQ and NE NSW during the above period. Falls of btw 100-200mm likely and given the saturated grounds real possibilty of further flooding in the area and prolonging of river heights effecting flooded towns especially areas such as Dalby , Chinchilla and St George.


Edited by Anthony Cornelius (10/01/2011 23:45)

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#920822 - 04/01/2011 20:17 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: snowmad]
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5236
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Thanks for starting this one Snowmad...And yep, agree with you that a significant rain event is likely somewhere along the coast over the next week or so...details of where seem tricky right now...strong E to NE flow with subtle distrurbances running along the flow into the coast...combined with upper trough along the coast. Combine that upper system with surface disturbance coming in and underneath will be some big falls...just hard at this point to know where those points will be...makes it all the more interesting to watch.

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#920828 - 04/01/2011 20:33 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: KevD]
markm9 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/03/2009
Posts: 1354
Loc: bris
Sunday looks interesting with a tropical low affecting SEQ on the Access model.

Cyclone, ECL, surface low, hybrid, will have to wait and see.

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#920848 - 04/01/2011 21:20 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: markm9]
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5236
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
CMC goes one better with a cyclone hitting the SE coast in a few days smile



Note: this image will update, but from what I've seen of CMC so far you won't be missing much...

Intrerestingly EC also has a slacker area of low pressure moving slowly in towards the end of the run. Keeps the low further N but the convergence to the S...thus into our region...would bring some big rains...but that is much further away....so as per posts above models offering all number of scenarios...key thing is that they seem to be moving towards something coming in from the Coral Sea / Tasman...so still watching with interest smile


Edited by Black Nor'easter (04/01/2011 21:28)
Edit Reason: wrong linked image

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#920859 - 04/01/2011 21:50 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: KevD]
snowmad Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/06/2005
Posts: 918
Loc: Bowen
Now that chart would send shivers across a wide area if it was to prove true , interestingly BOM 4 day outlook chart places a low depression in the central coral sea on saturday. Interesting days ahead. Last thing anyone needs now is a cyclone damage would be significant given many tress will struggle to stay upright on saturated grounds.

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#920860 - 04/01/2011 21:51 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: snowmad]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
CMC is truly an awful computer model, I did have high hopes for it but it has not performed well at all, almost as bad if not worse than NOGAPS and the old GASP. Take that image with a grain of salt.

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#920862 - 04/01/2011 22:00 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: Mega]
nocturnal1 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 04/03/2010
Posts: 1085
Loc: Murwillumbah, NE NSW
...a whole day or so without looking at WZ and/or BOM, and look what crops up! Will be watching with much interest. smile

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#920869 - 04/01/2011 22:12 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: nocturnal1]
Squid Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/09/2005
Posts: 9535
Loc: Murgon
gfs is starting to increase the falls

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#920883 - 04/01/2011 22:37 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: Squid]
snowmad Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/06/2005
Posts: 918
Loc: Bowen
GFS now has falls of above 250mm over Brisbane and Sunshine Coast areas btw Thursday - Saturday , plenty of mositure about and coral sea looks great very high 30+ SST in Central Coral sea.

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#920884 - 04/01/2011 22:43 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: snowmad]
dylos Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 02/11/2009
Posts: 445
Loc: Hattonvale
just saw that myself.....probs not good if that came off, but it is one of the more unreliable runs, see what the 2;30 update has to say, will be interesting

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#920924 - 05/01/2011 06:12 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: dylos]
Memories of Ice Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/07/2008
Posts: 221
Loc: Brisbane
OCF Day-by Day Totals the next week (Brisbane)

Wednesday - 25mm
Thursday - 47mm
Friday - 15mm
Saturday - 47mm
Sunday - 46mm
Monday - 37mm
Tuesday - 30mm

Total: 247mm

EC HR is going for 347mm over the same period with a peak on Sunday and Monday.

Really interesting situation with a upper trough currently over western NSW and QLD expected to amplify today before cutting off over the Darling Downs tomorrow. The cut off low then moves north over Rockhampton on Friday before stalling just to the northeast of Rocky. It them moves southwest again in a weakening stage.

Meanwhile, in the SEQ/NE we get a deep moist NE feed by Sunday with backing with height (warm air advection) and some good low level convergence. That all equals really good rainfall.

*All based off the EC HR*


Edited by Memories of Ice (05/01/2011 06:16)

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#920930 - 05/01/2011 07:10 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: Memories of Ice]
snowmad Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/06/2005
Posts: 918
Loc: Bowen
Most models now increasing this rain event with wet weather predicted over next 7 days falls over 250mm in total with some areas in excess of 350mm not good at all. Most models GFS , EC , ACCESS and CMC throwing in some form of tropical low/disturbance coming out of the central coral sea towards the SE coast following the passing of the upper low on the weekend. If this does eventuate on top of the fairly wide spread drenching we will receive from the trough and subsequent upper low then expect the rain fall totals to increase significantly early next week. Will wait with interest to see how models handle this as much going on in the atmosphere at present next 48hrs will be interesting and also if system pans out according to some predicted models somewhat alarming for many flood effected areas.


Edited by snowmad (05/01/2011 07:11)

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#920931 - 05/01/2011 07:17 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: Memories of Ice]
Dark&Stormy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/05/2007
Posts: 1619
Loc: Kilkivan, Southern Burnett QLD...
Well this is the first time I have seen the SE in the whole extended state outlook from the BOM certainly interesting times ahead.

Quote:

Weather Situation A weak ridge lies along the Queensland coast. A cloudband covers the southwest of the state with patchy light rain and isolated thunderstorms. An upper trough will move across southern districts today before developing further into a significant upper level low pressure system on Thursday. Forecast for the rest of Wednesday A developing upper level trough over the interior will increase precipitation over much of Queensland during the day, particularly over southeast and southern Queensland. Becoming fine during the afternoon and evening over the southwest of the state as patchy rain and isolated thunderstorms clear to the east. Occasional thunderstorms developing through the Warrego, Maranoa and the Darling Downs today will develop further to thundery rain areas by evening and extend east to the southeast coast. Moderate to heavy falls are likely in these districts overnight. Mainly isolated showers and thunderstorms elsewhere, more frequent in the afternoon and evening. Forecast for Thursday The upper level trough will intensify further into an upper level low over the southern interior. This will increase the weather over the southeast region. Rain areas generally over the southeast with moderate to heavy falls, extending north along the coast into the Wide Bay and Capricornia during the day. Elsewhere in the state showers and thunderstorms through the tropics and along remaining eastern districts in the afternoon. Thunderstorm activity will tend isolated further inland with a large fine area further west. Forecast for Friday The upper level low moves into the Capricornia region. Rain with moderate to heavy falls continues over the Wide Bay and Burnett district but eases in the Capricornia and Southeast Coast. Showers and thunderstorms continuing through the tropics and eastern districts, though becoming mostly fine about the east coast between Mackay and Cairns. Thunderstorms tending isolated further inland and fine over the western interior. Forecast for Saturday The upper level low persists through the Capricornia region. Rain with moderate to heavy falls continues over coastal parts of the Wide Bay and Burnett and gradually begins to extend south again to the Southeast Coast. Showers and thunderstorms generally over the eastern interior, the east coast and the tropics. Isolated showers remaining over the southern interior. Outlook for Sunday, Monday and Tuesday For Sunday through to Tuesday, some rain will continue over the Southeast Coast with showers and thunderstorms in adjacent districts. http://forecasts.bsch.au.com/forecast_machine.html

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#920945 - 05/01/2011 08:05 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: Dark&Stormy]
Taylsy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2007
Posts: 1249
Loc: Pacific Pines, Gold Coast
Warrego radar shows the approaching rain associated with the UT in amplification mode - steadily moving eastwards towards SEQ.
_________________________
Between the bush and the beach.
2019 YTD: 221 mm; 2018: 1,078 mm; 2017: 1,495 mm; 2016: 812 mm; 2015: 1,932 mm; 2014: 943 mm; 2013: 1,501 mm; 2012 1,682 mm; 2011 1,032 mm; 2010 2,151 mm; 2009 1,447 mm.

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#920964 - 05/01/2011 09:30 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: Taylsy]
storm seeker Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2010
Posts: 227
Loc: Wardell, NSW, Australia
Well a flood watch is out for NE NSW now that BOM are saying 50-100mm in the 24 hour period tomorrow. This is going to be a severe case of "deja vu" for anyone along the Richmond, Wilsons, Tweed, and Brunswick Rivers (Especially the people in Kyogle).

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#920974 - 05/01/2011 10:46 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: storm seeker]
pkgjmg Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/01/2009
Posts: 2955
Loc: Mt Warren Park
shocked well i certainly hope that the models are wrong - there is NO WAY QLD could handle a cyclone on top of the 50-200mm's they are forecasting for some areas ..

However while I hate to say it - the weather at the end of 2010 and into 2011 is EXACTLY what happened at the end of 1973 early into 1974 ..... so who know's - but I really hope they are wrong ........

Oh and by the way is the GFS working for anyone else ? I can't see past 24 hrs crazy
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#920978 - 05/01/2011 11:00 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: pkgjmg]
Steven Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/04/2006
Posts: 2191
Loc: 中国上૲...
This is the VWS chart for eastern Australia

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-...sht&zoom=&time=


For now there is not much chance of a cyclone. The vertical wind shear is too high.
However, this is likely to change later in January and during February.

There do appear to be disturbing similarities to what happened in 1974

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#921000 - 05/01/2011 12:02 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: Steven]
pkgjmg Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/01/2009
Posts: 2955
Loc: Mt Warren Park
thanks for the chart Steven, but I can't read it .. lol .. just alot of pretty colours and numbers to me grin

very muggy and dark/grey clouds hanging over head ........
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** sunshine and lollipops and rainbows every where **

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#921002 - 05/01/2011 12:10 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: Steven]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4553
Loc: Brisbane
Originally Posted By: Steven
This is the VWS chart for eastern Australia

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-...sht&zoom=&time=


For now there is not much chance of a cyclone. The vertical wind shear is too high.
However, this is likely to change later in January and during February.

There do appear to be disturbing similarities to what happened in 1974


This was recently discussed in the Coral Sea TC thread. Whilst the VWS is high in the Coral Sea at the moment, it is forecast to decrease in about 5 days time.
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#921005 - 05/01/2011 12:17 Re: SE QLD /NE NSW FLOOD DISASTER 5-12 JANUARY 2011 [Re: Locke]
shama Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/03/2010
Posts: 784
Loc: Frenchs Forest, Petrie, QLD (H...
Just received the EWN txt alert:
"QLD Severe Weather; Heavy Rain and localised Flash Flooding. All of Brisbane at risk from later today, Thursday and into Friday"
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