Raining moderate here at the moment coming in from the west.

Been a very dry run now for Bathurst, only 14mm for June and just under 80mm for the last 3 month. Still nothing significant really on the horizon either. I wonder if the positive IOD is to blame in contrast to the negative one last year.

Yep lucky it's been cool (so drying out has been slightly limited) but Bathurst is now going to need a good drink before long.

Drizzle from the east this am but extremely light.

Bathurst certainly is starting to fall behind on rain now. Even temps have been nothing spectacular so far this winter. Starting to look likely that mean temps will end up above normal for this winter. Although July is close to normal so far, this cannot hold with the model outlooks now.

What is wrong with July? In 2010 there was no snow on the CT's which was highly unusual. Here we are now in 2011 again facing the same fate with no snow of any significance at all on the CT's. To get two Julys in a row with no snow is getting absurd. However the benign-nes of July is something that I have seen many other years also. It seems like July is an uneventful doldrums period. Often a few cold changes take us into the start of winter but then we have to wait until August for cold changes to resume.

Well the snowfall occurred, Ullr threw that one back in my face.
But its still a crazy very un-winterlike July, with heavy rain on the coast and still parched dry up on the CT's thanks to very poor frontal circulation. Temps still running above normal for winter up here. Seems the cool autumn was not enough to get us back on track for winter.

May certainly felt more like July than July for me!!

After a mild short winter sprummer has begun in earnest at the start of August.
The warm spell this week in the eastern states is the warmest/earliest ever in known history.

Examples; Port Augusta today reached 31.4 smashing the all time high for August that was previously held on 28th August 31.2. This is simply astounding.
Cabrammura reached 12.9 only 3 days into August when the all time high for July is only 10. Extrapolating between the highest for July and August today has broken the all time early high by about 1deg.
There will be plenty more shockers tomorrow and maybe Friday. If you take into account the length of this heatwave then it makes it even worse.

Here is my summary for 2011 for the high CT's east of Bathurst

Y/M T-anom R-anom comment
=======================
11/ 1 0.9 -54.2 (warm-dry)
11/ 2 0.9 -3.6 (warm-slightly-dry)
11/ 3 -0.2 121.7 (slightly-cool-wet)
11/ 4 -0.8 -26.9 (cool-dry)
11/ 5 -0.9 12.4 (cool-slightly-wet)
11/ 6 0.4 -21.7 (slightly-warm-dry)
11/ 7 0.3 -21.0 (slightly-warm-dry)
11/ 8 1.9 -7.6 (very-warm-slightly-dry)
11/ 9 1.1 25.3 (warm-wet)
11/10 0.1 -30.9 (normal-dry)
11/11 1.8 95.7 (very-warm-very-wet)
11/12 -5.1 -46.0 (very-cold-dry) - * so far only

If anyone else would like to place their description of 2011 here month by month in simple terms (eg warm-wet, cool-dry etc) please do so, will be interesting to compare. Maybe Surly, Freeze, Aslaws would have a description to provide from where they live?, or anyone else who gathers data.

For me December certainly on track to get the greatest negative temp anomaly of 2011. Would much rather have had that happen in July than now, its just too cold for summer. DaveM is ok in Bathurst at some ½ a km lower, but up here its just too cold and cloudy to enjoy being out on the deck.

Funny thinking of it as half a km lower!!

Yep - you can freeze fella - I like it like this.

Might have to do a house swap over summer.

Might have to take you up on that, I know my other half would gladly swap. Temperatures would not be so bad if at least there was a bit more sun, its just so dreary and grey lately, getting quite depressing. Still no 20 yet either, temps in teens are good with some sun but under cloud you need low 20's just not to be cold.

Sun Schmun - not a fan really - had my first nasty melanoma aged 17, told I was very likely to lose my leg as well as my life (luckily kept both albeit with a big hole in the leg) quickly followed by severe sun stroke later that year, I've got light skin - keep the sun. The above issues are what set me on a path of sun avoidance (except in the middle of winter when it's stunning - 5 degrees no breeze but full sun - glorious).

Had too much sun growing up in Coonamble & Quirindi obviously (hence the melanoma). I'll take the shade thanks.

As I said in the other thread, I could live happily without the harsh summer sun, except for in the late evening when it's soft. Bad news those melanomas, glad you got out of it OK.

I can understand PD wanting some sunnier weather at that elevation, he's running close to Charlotte Pass's average summer temps atm.

Cheers Brad - see I'm one of those wierdos who could happily live around Charlottes etc all year round.

DaveM, Sorry to hear about the Melanoma, that would make anyone a sun hater, I too love the summer at Charlottes Pass/Perisher, but the sun there can be quite bad. The first time I spent a few summer days in the Snowies in the early 70's our whole family got burnt like lobsters walking the main range, our faces were red as apples and lips cracked and blistered. That was a lesson learnt after coming from high latitude Canada. Thankfully no Melanoma's yet.

People visiting Tassie often get VERY badly burned because the breeze often has coolness in it so people assume the UV is not present - major mistake, I have seen MANY lobster mainlanders in Tas.

Altitude definitely increases sunburn risk - less UV filtered out and it's cooler so as mentioned above, people associate coolness with a lack of UV - double trouble.

Prior to my melanoma and sun stroke (growing up in Coonamble/Quirindi) we didn't wear hats, shirts, shoes etc. We were sun adorers. My mum till the day she died would NOT wear a hat os sunscreen she adored the sun. Dad was a water driller and wore a hat (but usually no shirt). Back then we just didn't realise!! I've had a number of moles cut off over the years, thankfully no more nasties yet.

Bad news Dave

I grew up just on the tail end of the tanning era, so i was quite dark skinned when up to the age of 8 or so, when the slip slop slap program started to be rolled out. I remember the days when you tried to get the biggest skin peal..... ewwwww. Although i've got a natural olive skin base, i do reckon what ever damage i did when i was younger will come back to haunt me later in life. I find it ridiculous the whole concept of getting a tan nowadays, all i see on people is dead skin cells. I wear a rashy when i go to the beach, dong on a hat and apply and re-apply sunblock.

Had the unfortunate incident a few years back fishing north of Cairns, where i forgot to re-apply on the top of my feet. I should have gone to hospital - they got badly infected and i ended up on a drip 2 weeks later- got a lengthy lecture from a skin doctor on how close i came to having skin grafts.... i slept with my feet in ice water for 4 weeks on the lounge floor, and it took 6 months before i could wear any socks/ shoes. Lesson learned.... cover everything!

Good luck with it Dave, i hope that's the last of them.

Hey Greg - that sounds like a VERy bad dose of burn - 4 weeks wow!!.

Hey I'm ok the melanoma was when I was 17 though it was a bit of a shock to an IMMORTAL teenager It shook mum & dad to the core poor buggers, - i've been around a good while since then and I know what to do. I'm just all round more comfy when it's cool, other are exactly the opposite, we all have our own likes and dislikes.

This has been a strange 'high sun' season (you can't call it summer) in Sydney and much of NSW this year. It has been so bizarre that If I were into gambling, I think the following would be good bets:
[*]November 14 to be the hottest day at Obs Hill for the season (OK, not so strange. Sydney often has its hottest day in November).
[*]March 2012 to be the warmest month of the season (Dec to Mar). Reason is that if Easterlies and Southerlies dominate the season as they have to date, the temperature on the coast will follow sea temperatures.
[*]Average maximum at Obs Hill for April 2012 will be warmer than that that for Dec 2011 (likely as we seem to be on track for a Dec average maximum of 23 or lower).
[*]The warmest day in April 2012 at Obs Hill will be warmer than the warmest day in December 2011.
[*]The first 10 days of May will, on average, be warmer than the first 10 days of December.
[*]Longer odds but still possible might be that the average maximum for the first 10 days of June might be warmer than the first 10 days of December; that the hottest day in May will be hotter than the hottest day in December.
Anyway, we shall see in due course.

I have a very controversial view of Melanoma. I believe that genetics plays almost all the part - sunburn? its the trigger that pulls the loaded gun.

I have come to this conclusion observing friends and people I have known to develop Melanoma, some were not beach people at all.

If you have the genetic marker for Melanoma you are fighting a very hard battle as just about any damaging UV exposure puts you at risk - there is no "cumulative" effect, each strong sun exposure is a fresh round of russian roulette.

Now for the really unpopular piece - unfortunately the whole skin cancer debate has been hijacked by this sun avoidance campaign. The $$$ really need to be spent in research of the genetic disposition to melanoma, and perhaps a cure for for Melanoma.

The "cumulative" sun exposures that is demonised by the adverts will lead to skin cancers and sun spots in middle to older age, but these basal and squamous cell cancers that are rarely fatal, unless left untreated beyond reason, for example half your ears have fallen off (yes it happens). Ironically a healthy tan (as in no sunburn) can delay and protect against these cancers. We are also seeing vitamin D deficiency springing up, another undesirable product of sun avoidance.