I thought it might be worth having a thread separate for NSW where we can discuss how the temperature and rainfall stats are developing for the year 2011.

This link shows the BOM map for MTD % rainfall readings...
http://www.bom.gov.au/web03/ncc/www/awap/rainfall/percent/cmonth/colour/latest.ns.hres.gif

This link shows the BOM map for YTD % rainfall readings...
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/inde...d=cyear&area=ns

It is interesting to note that dry space over central NSW for January so far, and looking at the models it seems likely that the central CT's will remain with below normal rain for January. This is quite surprising as this makes this the first month since June 2010 that may be below normal for rain. Temperatures are however tracking to stay slightly below normal thanks to the cloudy days.

Also it is interesting to see that far western NSW has a few patches that have already reached their annual rainfall only 2 weeks into the year which is quite amazing and quite a contrast to the east.

My readings are 35.2mm for the MTD even with this mornings showers, normal is just over 90mm so a long way to go. Mean temps are still -0.5 deg to average and have been edging up with some of these warmish tropical days, but nights are much warmer than normal and days cooler. Quite odd to have this happen with low rainfall, but the number of rain days is close to 10 already, just rain falls in very small amounts in contrast to other parts of Australia.

I am hoping the mean temp manages to get back to the normal annual mean this year, rainfall will probably be above average but not as much as 2010.

It's ridiculously humid across much of NSW, temps are around 30 in Sydney's west but it feels more like 35-and this under cloudy skies. As for 2011 in NSW i reckon a wet period is on the cards for eastern NSW in Feb-Mar-Apr followed by cold and drier weather.

I think I am now able to say with some certainty that January this year will be warmer and drier than normal for the bulk of NSW and certainly for the CT's. Temperatures currently right on average but with the warm spells coming up that will not last, still they will not be huge anomalies for temperature. Still cooler than January 2010 by a significant margin.

134mm so far here Snowmi so not all of the CTs drier than normal

Aslaws, you have got to be joking, that is crazy, just 36.2mm for the MTD here, Bathurst 32mm, Orange 10mm, Oberon 21.7mm so as you can see a dry dusty month on the bulk of the CT's. No significant rain whatever in the model outlooks for the rest of this month anyway. However I do believe this will change in February or March.

Had another 21mm overnight Snowmi - we had 1700mm+ here last year so as you know this is a wet area. The Blue Mountains are a bit of an outlier when it comes to CT weather (often more like the eastern Southern Highlands)

10 mm in Orange is dry but not unusual for this time of year, when most of it falls in spotty thunderstorms. Parts of Sydney would be around that 10 mm mark too, though it's still relatively green due to the frequency of precip and above average cloudiness and humidity. I also believe our turn will come in February, March and April.

Snowmi - using the Ag site, Bathurst has only had 12mm for Jan. Several times now the Airport site (and Kelso) have had ok rain whilst the Ag station has been zip or tiny. Last night the airport had about 9.6mm Ag station Zippo. This sort of anomoly has occurred at least twice this month.

Actually - just checked the weatherzone and BOM sites and WZ is incorrect, it appears to be missing a fall of approx 20mm on the 4th January.

Dave, that is surprising about the rain last night in Bathurst. I had about 0.2mm again up here, yes bit of difference between small areas.

Aslaws, cannot believe you had another 21mm, always amazing how much rain your area gets, yet you can see Mount Lambie and Sunny Corner on your NW horizon only 45km away as the crow flies.

S4S, yes 10mm is not unusual for Orange, its just out of character of the last 6 month or so. This will most likely be the driest month now in about a year which kind of flies in the face of those saying we are having a wet summer. Just goes to show how patchy rainfalls often are. The grass here is also green, just a figure of speech about the dust how little rain there has been, it will still take a few month for the ground to really dry out.

Mean temp of 17.5C & 159mm for the month Snowmi - Mt Lambie seems very close on the NW horizon from here - but a world away climactically. After 9 years back in the mountains & living here & at Wentworth Falls I would describe our weather at moist, coastal & mild despite our reputation in Sydney as being cold. Katoomba is also wetter than Blackheath with a band of highest annual rainfall running from Wentworth Falls/Leura & east Katoomba along the Mt Hay Range to Mt Tomah - this line is parallel to the Sydney coastline.

Aslaws, our MTD mean temp is almost the same, here 17.3 (LTA 17.4) but rain 36.2mm (LTA 91mm).

Currently on 53 mm MTD/YTD. Assuming we get a few more passing storms before the end of the month that'd make January fairly average, rainfall-wise for here. Temps-wise, we are currently at below-average high temps and above-average low temps, due to cloud cover and high humidity this month. Few hot days coming up in the last week of January though, so I think it'll end up average for highs, and very much above average lows.

Up to 36.8mm now with a few more dregs for MTD rain, mean temp still sitting right on the LTA, except for warmer nights and cooler days balancing each other out.
Here this will now be the single driest month in nearly 2 years with no rain in the models at all. Oh well I guess the tap had to be turned off at some point after the wettest 6 month in 20 years up to December. I bet not many people were expecting a dry second half of summer.

Actually Snowmi, I have a little pet theory (completely untested!!) for at least my local area... that once a la-nina or el-nino hits its peak, or around that time, climate patterns shift back to neutral or even the opposite a little, at least in central parts of NSW. I have noticed this with several el-ninos now, (late December 09 / January 2010 are good examples of being in el-nino and getting a lot of weather here on the eastern coastal areas - yes, lower BMts is more often than not influenced by coastal weather), and late in the weak la-nina's in the late 90's - interested to see what happens on the back of this very strong la-nina. In the back of my mind for a while now is that we will see a drying pattern in central coastal parts of NSW, and when we do things could turn out nasty for a late fire season in the grasslands to the west of divide. I keep a watchful eye of the grass curing rates...Grass will always cure as it ages, but rainfall makes the difference between 80% curing and 100% - and that 20% makes a huge difference to fire behaviour..

Interestely here, we are now seeing the hottest period all summer by a long shot, although still very humid, and forecast to stay this way for a while now.

One day I will pull all the local data and see how my theory stacks up... Problem is, long term data that works for this is hard to get for this local area...

Just out of interest, here is the latest KDBI anomaly map - ie, soil dryness index, used for fire planning. Good way to show how various parts of the state are drying out. First time all summer than any part of the state other than around the Newcastle area has been anything other than "wetter than normal", and the first time any "drier than normal" has appeared...

[img:left]http://reg.bom.gov.au/nsw/firewx/kbdi_anomaly.shtml[/img]

As an interesting aside to my post two up - I regularly stay in touch with waether happenings in the state Oregon in the US for a number of reasons. It is an area that is highly affected by the pacific and its oscillations between la-nina and el-nino. Things are changing their after one of the best ski seasons in ages, the local forecasters are noting the change, and are quoting NOAA -

From a local forecast site:

Here’s the sad word from NOAA this morning: “THE LONG TERM IS NOT CHARACTERISTIC OF A LA NINA WINTER PATTERN…MORE LIKE AN EL NINO.”

That is an interesting statement about La Nina being like El Nino, nothing is ever as we expect or as it seems I guess.
That link in the previous post was asking for a password. Yes grass will dry out quickly now.

It was a very wet Spring for most of the CT (indeed most of the East coast of Australia). Now it seems we have a drying out trend that will probably last into mid to late Feb before the next meaningful rain event occurs. The monsoon is in a passive stage at the moment especially over tropical Qld which will allow heat to build over the continent before the monsoon re-develops again around late Feb. I tip a big March for Sydney in terms of rainfall.

A drought-free NSW

They could have at least coloured the ACT green, they can't pretend we're just a hole in NSW.