I thought it might be worth having a thread separate for NSW where we can discuss how the temperature and rainfall stats are developing for the year 2011.

This link shows the BOM map for MTD % rainfall readings...
http://www.bom.gov.au/web03/ncc/www/awap/rainfall/percent/cmonth/colour/latest.ns.hres.gif

This link shows the BOM map for YTD % rainfall readings...
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/inde...d=cyear&area=ns

It is interesting to note that dry space over central NSW for January so far, and looking at the models it seems likely that the central CT's will remain with below normal rain for January. This is quite surprising as this makes this the first month since June 2010 that may be below normal for rain. Temperatures are however tracking to stay slightly below normal thanks to the cloudy days.

Also it is interesting to see that far western NSW has a few patches that have already reached their annual rainfall only 2 weeks into the year which is quite amazing and quite a contrast to the east.

My readings are 35.2mm for the MTD even with this mornings showers, normal is just over 90mm so a long way to go. Mean temps are still -0.5 deg to average and have been edging up with some of these warmish tropical days, but nights are much warmer than normal and days cooler. Quite odd to have this happen with low rainfall, but the number of rain days is close to 10 already, just rain falls in very small amounts in contrast to other parts of Australia.

I am hoping the mean temp manages to get back to the normal annual mean this year, rainfall will probably be above average but not as much as 2010.

It's ridiculously humid across much of NSW, temps are around 30 in Sydney's west but it feels more like 35-and this under cloudy skies. As for 2011 in NSW i reckon a wet period is on the cards for eastern NSW in Feb-Mar-Apr followed by cold and drier weather.

I think I am now able to say with some certainty that January this year will be warmer and drier than normal for the bulk of NSW and certainly for the CT's. Temperatures currently right on average but with the warm spells coming up that will not last, still they will not be huge anomalies for temperature. Still cooler than January 2010 by a significant margin.

134mm so far here Snowmi so not all of the CTs drier than normal

Aslaws, you have got to be joking, that is crazy, just 36.2mm for the MTD here, Bathurst 32mm, Orange 10mm, Oberon 21.7mm so as you can see a dry dusty month on the bulk of the CT's. No significant rain whatever in the model outlooks for the rest of this month anyway. However I do believe this will change in February or March.

Had another 21mm overnight Snowmi - we had 1700mm+ here last year so as you know this is a wet area. The Blue Mountains are a bit of an outlier when it comes to CT weather (often more like the eastern Southern Highlands)

10 mm in Orange is dry but not unusual for this time of year, when most of it falls in spotty thunderstorms. Parts of Sydney would be around that 10 mm mark too, though it's still relatively green due to the frequency of precip and above average cloudiness and humidity. I also believe our turn will come in February, March and April.

Snowmi - using the Ag site, Bathurst has only had 12mm for Jan. Several times now the Airport site (and Kelso) have had ok rain whilst the Ag station has been zip or tiny. Last night the airport had about 9.6mm Ag station Zippo. This sort of anomoly has occurred at least twice this month.

Actually - just checked the weatherzone and BOM sites and WZ is incorrect, it appears to be missing a fall of approx 20mm on the 4th January.

Dave, that is surprising about the rain last night in Bathurst. I had about 0.2mm again up here, yes bit of difference between small areas.

Aslaws, cannot believe you had another 21mm, always amazing how much rain your area gets, yet you can see Mount Lambie and Sunny Corner on your NW horizon only 45km away as the crow flies.

S4S, yes 10mm is not unusual for Orange, its just out of character of the last 6 month or so. This will most likely be the driest month now in about a year which kind of flies in the face of those saying we are having a wet summer. Just goes to show how patchy rainfalls often are. The grass here is also green, just a figure of speech about the dust how little rain there has been, it will still take a few month for the ground to really dry out.

Mean temp of 17.5C & 159mm for the month Snowmi - Mt Lambie seems very close on the NW horizon from here - but a world away climactically. After 9 years back in the mountains & living here & at Wentworth Falls I would describe our weather at moist, coastal & mild despite our reputation in Sydney as being cold. Katoomba is also wetter than Blackheath with a band of highest annual rainfall running from Wentworth Falls/Leura & east Katoomba along the Mt Hay Range to Mt Tomah - this line is parallel to the Sydney coastline.

Aslaws, our MTD mean temp is almost the same, here 17.3 (LTA 17.4) but rain 36.2mm (LTA 91mm).

Currently on 53 mm MTD/YTD. Assuming we get a few more passing storms before the end of the month that'd make January fairly average, rainfall-wise for here. Temps-wise, we are currently at below-average high temps and above-average low temps, due to cloud cover and high humidity this month. Few hot days coming up in the last week of January though, so I think it'll end up average for highs, and very much above average lows.

Up to 36.8mm now with a few more dregs for MTD rain, mean temp still sitting right on the LTA, except for warmer nights and cooler days balancing each other out.
Here this will now be the single driest month in nearly 2 years with no rain in the models at all. Oh well I guess the tap had to be turned off at some point after the wettest 6 month in 20 years up to December. I bet not many people were expecting a dry second half of summer.

Actually Snowmi, I have a little pet theory (completely untested!!) for at least my local area... that once a la-nina or el-nino hits its peak, or around that time, climate patterns shift back to neutral or even the opposite a little, at least in central parts of NSW. I have noticed this with several el-ninos now, (late December 09 / January 2010 are good examples of being in el-nino and getting a lot of weather here on the eastern coastal areas - yes, lower BMts is more often than not influenced by coastal weather), and late in the weak la-nina's in the late 90's - interested to see what happens on the back of this very strong la-nina. In the back of my mind for a while now is that we will see a drying pattern in central coastal parts of NSW, and when we do things could turn out nasty for a late fire season in the grasslands to the west of divide. I keep a watchful eye of the grass curing rates...Grass will always cure as it ages, but rainfall makes the difference between 80% curing and 100% - and that 20% makes a huge difference to fire behaviour..

Interestely here, we are now seeing the hottest period all summer by a long shot, although still very humid, and forecast to stay this way for a while now.

One day I will pull all the local data and see how my theory stacks up... Problem is, long term data that works for this is hard to get for this local area...

Just out of interest, here is the latest KDBI anomaly map - ie, soil dryness index, used for fire planning. Good way to show how various parts of the state are drying out. First time all summer than any part of the state other than around the Newcastle area has been anything other than "wetter than normal", and the first time any "drier than normal" has appeared...

[img:left]http://reg.bom.gov.au/nsw/firewx/kbdi_anomaly.shtml[/img]

As an interesting aside to my post two up - I regularly stay in touch with waether happenings in the state Oregon in the US for a number of reasons. It is an area that is highly affected by the pacific and its oscillations between la-nina and el-nino. Things are changing their after one of the best ski seasons in ages, the local forecasters are noting the change, and are quoting NOAA -

From a local forecast site:

Here’s the sad word from NOAA this morning: “THE LONG TERM IS NOT CHARACTERISTIC OF A LA NINA WINTER PATTERN…MORE LIKE AN EL NINO.”

That is an interesting statement about La Nina being like El Nino, nothing is ever as we expect or as it seems I guess.
That link in the previous post was asking for a password. Yes grass will dry out quickly now.

It was a very wet Spring for most of the CT (indeed most of the East coast of Australia). Now it seems we have a drying out trend that will probably last into mid to late Feb before the next meaningful rain event occurs. The monsoon is in a passive stage at the moment especially over tropical Qld which will allow heat to build over the continent before the monsoon re-develops again around late Feb. I tip a big March for Sydney in terms of rainfall.

A drought-free NSW

They could have at least coloured the ACT green, they can't pretend we're just a hole in NSW.

But the ACT is quite literally a hole in NSW, lol. It's a NSW Government produced Drought map, the conditions in the ACT are irrelevent and not its responsibility.

Needless to say the ACT would be coloured green like the rest anyway. All dams have been at 100.0% since December, and January, although not particularly wet, has at least met the average monthly rainfall here.

Well January 2011 was the driest month here since March 2009 at only 37.2mm and monthly mean for January came in at +0.9 above normal. Mins were particularly high at 13.1, the highest in quite a few years and max at 24.2 was quite close to normal.

This month looks to become the warmest on record for parts of the central coast.

Yes, this is shocking news, here also February is certain to be warmer than normal no matter what happens now for the rest of this month. Currently +7.4 above normal here for the first 5 days. Not only that though currently 2011 is on track to being one of the driest years on record as well one of the hottest in these parts.

Aslaws, hope you do not mind me quoting you here, I just wanted to ask you something about your mean temp. You say your true mean by your Davis came to -1.2 below the max/min mean, that is a lot, I am just trying to work out what the reason could be?. I also record my means by the true "integration" mean by the Davis however mine are very consistently -0.4 below max/min mean eg last month (24.2+13.1)/2= 18.65 while true mean was 18.3 so only -0.35 compared to your -1.2. In all the time I have been recording my values they seem to be consistently between -0.3 and -0.5 pretty much sitting on -0.4 average. The only thing that comes to mind is that your max temps must be sharper spikes than mine. Do you find that your true mean is near your value of -1.2 most month, or do your values vary more?. Just wondering if its just mine that is consistent or if the value can vary more.

Thanks for the post Snowmi.
That 1.2C difference is an outlier compared to my other monthly results.
Since I started using the Davis computer software in April 2010 the difference between my min/max average & my true integration mean has ranged between 0.2C and 0.9C. The smallest variation was in the winter months & the variation has become larger as summer has progressed. You are spot on about my temperature spikes. When the sun is high in the sky the open area at the bottom of my backyard warms up creating artificially high maximums & temperature spikes. This open part of the yard is surrounded by wooden fence to the north (mostly shaded) , Colourbond fencing (mostly shaded) & a large conifer & wattle tree to the west, a usually full 15000L plastic water tank to the south (being full I think it would be cooler & radiate less heat than an empty watertank) and a wind break of large conifers to the east. This sheltering makes the 1.5m height of the Vantage Vue anenometer next to useless. The Vantage Vue also measures about 6-7% higher rainfall than my Nylex gauge closer to the house - 1822mm in 2010 compared to 1706mm - this may be a natural variation - they are about 25m apart.
I really love the integration mean as it is a much better measurement of true average temperature & must have endless applications with regards to horticulture and household heating/cooling.
Most people with average 1/4 acre blocks just have to be aware of & honest about the limitations of their readings from home weather stations, but at the same time these readings are a reflection of the environment of our own backyards. Having said that I also think that both the weather station sites in the Upper Blue Mountains have their own limitations regarding exposure & aspect. My sites is less urban (larger blocks of land & closer to a larger expanse of natural bushland on Narrow Neck Road) & not as exposed to reflective hard surfaces as the Murri St site, while the Mt Boyce site is right on the western escarpment close to the highway.

Just a question for you Snowmi
Does the setting for 'archive interval' (I have mine set on 15 minutes) in the Davis Software effect the calculation of the integration mean? Does it then use only 4 readings an hour if I have a 15 minute interval? If so then I would probably be better using a shorter archive interval.

Aslaws, the interval of your archive setting does not matter since the Davis calculates a mean and a high/low value for each interval that you are using. The mean for your interval is calculated from all the readings which arrive at your station about every 5 seconds (not sure now what that exact sampling rate is). When you browse the data you will always get the 3 temperature values for the interval of your choice the true mean, the high and the low. The integration method then uses that mean if you choose to for the monthly stats or just uses the high/low values if its unticked. I use just 30min intervals on mine which I find adequate, its just so I can have a long automatic period in case I went on holidays. The smaller the interval the better the resolution of your history but the true mean is still the same.

Thanks for that Snowmi
mean so far for Feb - up to 8.30am today = a balmy 19.8C

No worries, I susspect the difference may be due to your location being on a cliff top where inversions are almost non existent. I also get weak inversions near the crest of the divide, however I am still in a small valley here. I think places like Bathurst would get the true mean almost the same as the max/min mean.

My mean to 9am is also balmy for here at 18.9 (+2.4) above my estimated LTA.

Hi Snowmi

How much rain have you had up to today and is this close to averahe?

Cam

54.8mm for February so far, (normal is about 80mm). Better than January (37.2mm) at least.

Aslaws one other thing I have noticed about how the Davis Software calculates the means. Each day has has an equally weighted mean, so as a new day begins its mean is worked out up to that point in time eg in the morning the mean for the day may be only 10.0deg but that 10deg is taken as being 1/(total days so far) fraction of the monthly mean where the total days so far includes the incomplete day. So eg, at 9am on the 10th the mean for the month is 9/10 of the mean for the first 9 days but the 10th day has a weighting of 1/10 and is assumed to have the mean as the last reading so far for the day. So the first 9 hours has a full days weighting.

You must have done some calculations to work that one out Snowmi. But come to think of it I had noticed this phenomenon but didn't look into it any further.
You are correct about there being no real inversions around here. We didn't go below minus 2 last winter and I am not sure we will see the minus 4s we use to get at 900m in south Wentworth Falls.
Fascinating stuff (at least for some of us) - it would be great to have weather stations dotted all over this area & work out all the various microclimates. One in the bush on Narrow Neck and one in the frost-hollow in the open grassy gully near Katoomba Park would be my first choice.

Today is a perfect example of what you were talking about Snowmi.
When I posted this morning the intergration mean for the month was 19.8.
The integration mean for today is currently running at 15.7 but the monthly mean is now 19.9 - your earlier post explains this perfectly.

38mm for this rain event with 5.1mm so far today - misty drizzle & light rain.
14.2C as a type.

Although the dry pattern over the CT's has eased this month, it still has not broken down as rain continues to circle the state and avoids the middle eastern bits like the CT's. 69.4mm now MTD and looking like the average of near 80mm could be reached this week (just). However next week should be completely dry again and warm towards the end of next week, finishing the month on a warm dry note as it began. MTD temperature anomaly continues well above normal at +1.3 and looks likely to remain near +1 again as was January. Not the start to the year I had hoped for and certainly little resemblance to summer 99/00 as I first thought there could be a few month ago. If the year continues at around +1 anomalies then I hold little hope of much snow this winter.

Sydney has been warmer and dryer than what February is usually like. More like summer. 14mm to date and 3 degrees above normal.

It's a polar opposite down here.

For the month of February we're running close to average temps (about -1.8C on max temps and +2C on min temps), but rainfall is now going into unchartered territory.

Since the 1st of Feb (17 days ago) we have had 194mm of rain - and that was on top of slightly above average rainfall in January. That is close to a third of our annual rainfall in just over 2 weeks!

Bigwilly, that is crazy rain down there, amazing. Here max are quite close to average but min are running about +3 now.

It is starting to worry me that the heavier rain in the south in summer could be compensated by lighter falls in winter which would mean only one thing, less snow in winter.

If that were the case then I believe the reverse would be true (lighter falls in summer lead to heavier falls in winter) and that simply has not been the case.

The regime that has delivered all this rain is not walled by the seasons. It is very likely that there will be significant overlap, if not blanket coverage, between seasons.

I use to think this was true and have seen this a lot in the 80's. But patterns are always changing so maybe not true now.
However in some way it makes sense, if summer is dry then it can be due to the high pressure belt being over us in summer, but in winter the fronts move in and it gets wet. But if summer is wet then its due to the monsoon being a long way south and the highs a long way south, so in winter we only get to the highs and get a dry winter. That is the general logic of it anyway.

Looks like 70.8mm will be it for Feruary now with no rain on the models for the next couple of weeks. That makes 108mm YTD which is 60mm below normal. Mean Temps YTD are now running at +1.2, (+1.6 just for February). So to sum up 2011 so far in two words HOT and DRY. Which is exactly the opposite of what I was suppose to expect in a La Nina.

Yes it is a hot time for central parts of NSW. 26 overnight in Sydney. Everywhere else is cool and had heaps of rain except our area and Perth.

That overnight 26 in Sydney is lost. It was 25.1 at 9am yesterday so another good minimum for the record books is trashed. Same for Homebush; overnight 26.6 wiped out by 24.9 at 9am yesterday.
In fact for Obs Hill, yesterday's maximum was recorded today and today's minimum was recorded yesterday.

So far 2011 is still running almost equal warmest on record for Jan/Feb in central/eastern and northern NSW. Here the YTD sits at +0.9deg and even in Armidale it sits at +0.7 which is only 0.12 behind the hottest 1998.

Jan 2011
http://www.bom.gov.au/web03/ncc/www/awap...110131.hres.gif

Feb 2011
http://www.bom.gov.au/web03/ncc/www/awap...110228.hres.gif

Good to see though that February heat was much more confined to the east coast and the west coast, but not as widespread over southern Australia as it was in January. I hope this means that autumn may settle back to average at least.

Rainfall is still well down on YTD also in the same central/eastern areas but close to normal in the north and well above normal in the south and west. Still no sign of getting much rain around here in the model outlooks either.

I don't think, from a climatic point of view, that you can look at the mean anomaly in isolation. The scenario for 1998, to which you are comparing this year, was very different with significant rainfall deficits being experienced right across the state. This year has seen much more tropical air ingress across the state which has led to close to average max's (or below average max's in this part of the world), but higher min's.

Rainfall, well it's in record territory, or was until this relatively dry spell.

Another heat record (so to speak) for Sydney- http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/quirky-times-in-hot-and-cold-sydney/16709

February 2011 stats
Ave Min 14.0
Ave Max 24.1
NOAA Mean - 18.2
Lowest Min 8.1 - 22nd
Highest Max 34.2 - 2nd
rain - 111mm (nylex) , 120mm (Vantage Vue)

Record warm spell Jan 30 ---> Feb 5
NOAA mean during this period - 24.9
Ave Min 19.2
Ave Max 32.7

The dry continues into another month and it's still warm.

Cam

"lighter falls in summer lead to heavier falls in winter"

It's useful comparing the current season to the previous ones, for instance the Spring of 2009 was hot and sunny for Eastern Australia while the Spring of 2010 was wet and cloudy.

As for Autumn predictions for Sydney, last Autumn in March and April were relatively dry and warm, so maybe there is an indication that some rain is just around the corner.

In little over one hour today my YTD rainfall went from near 130mm to close enough to 200mm. The most intense rain event for such a short time period I have ever seen here. Maybe a one in 30 year event.

GFS now has the first signs of an ECL at the end of the runs, our wet winter is getting closer.

Bigwilly, I am catching up to your rainfall now, still some way to go though.

Gee Snowmi that was a solid fall for you, we've had about 30mm in Bx the last few days in total.

"...our wet winter is getting closer."

Snowmi, i think you mean our wet autumn.

Finally a slightly below normal mean temp for a month this year with -0.2 for March.
http://www.weather.liway.com/NOAAYR.TXT

A very wet March here, but mainly due to one huge rainfall that fell in little over an hour. But even without that it would have been a healthy wet month.

Interesting that BOM monthly rain map basically has me near the 125% contour, but in fact I would have been above that contour even without the huge downpour. As is I am over 250% normal for March.

March 2011
Ave min - 11.9
Ave max - 19.3
NOAA mean 14.8
Rain - 215mm (Nylex manual) , 234mm (Vantage Vue)
Max - 26.7 on the 13th
Min - 7.6 on the 27th

Autumn colours have been slow to turn up this way - London Plane Trees on Falls Rd, Wentworth Falls are very late compared to previous years. My Claret Ash is still growing & my Pin Oak has shown some faint colour in the last few days. The Box Elder Maple is in full swing now.

April now running at -0.5 to the mean here, now looking very likely a negative anomaly will remain this month.

Not in Sydney. OCF now going for a run of 25, 27, 28 and 26 next week which will assure another above average month if it happens. Really need constant SE winds to fall below average these days.

SE winds do not help me that much up here which is why I was unimpressed with the cool SE winds last week. However the last 3 days or so have really knocked the heat out of this month. If Sydney can have near average temps with an equal balance of east/west airmass's then all would be well with the climate.
I can only see Tuesday/Wednesday getting slightly over 25 in Sydney next week.

Snowmi,

I appreciated the informed reply originally to this post which was as follows....



This brings me back to my first question to you when I see a post like this today....



I understand you then followed up with this......



But I ask you again, not withstanding all the models you seem to read.......is it not a little premature to make a call on the 4th of a month that that month is most likely to end up above average? Not having a shot at you at all, and definitely not picking on you, I just find it a little gung ho to be making such claims so early in the month. Your original explanation made a lot of sense in the fact that models can give a very clear indication of a trend, but no more than 7-10 days surely. As we all know, anything can happen beyond that.

Homer

Yes Homer, it was certainly premature of me on the 4th, at the time I was not expecting such cooling results from this week. I have seen so many month in recent years start of above average and then just stubbornly remain positive. I think that this week has surprised us all, I definitely misjudged it. But I am more than happy to have been proven wrong since we are heading in the right direction for this winter atm, and travelling closer to the correct path now.

The climate is a very slow ship to steer, seasonal outcomes are already defined many month ahead, and as someone once said on this forum a couple of years ago (I think it was Ant). "You need a gradual progression of cooling into winter through the autumn to get a good winter". If the year just kept running above average and patterns did not gradually align themselves into winter, then winter would also be a flop. To me this week has been like the flap of the butterfly wings that has steered us back to the path of a potentially good winter. Still no guarantee of course, but to me it looks like we are now aiming correctly.

OCF has upgraded the heat for next week again, now going for 26, 27, 28 and near 30 deg on Thursday in the western suburbs . That's now a significant Indian summer for this late in April. Hopefully after the Easter/ANZAC break we'll see the warmth go for good like it usually does.

With heat like that S4S i'd expect there will be a decent change sometime over the Easter break. The last few years now we've had a big one around Anzac Day.

Yes, looks like one on the Friday for VIC and Sat for NSW, but not an overly cold one. Good Friday could be a real stinker across NSW on current models, luckily I'll be out of Sydney.

Still a week out so anything's possible, but at current progs my camping trip to the snowies would be a pleasant one, not sure how i'd cope with sub-zero temperatures, so hope they stay away.

Actually, it's just as well we're having all these westerlies as I just checked the SST: 23.8C off Sydney at present!** If we had a run of NE'lies the DPs would be near 20. I'd rather have high maximum temps with relatively cool nights.

Source: Manly Hydraulics Laboratory: http://mhl.nsw.gov.au/htbin/wave_temp_plot.com?Location=Sydney

Its actually as high as 25deg off Sydney, and not far off 24deg even near Batemans Bay. Oddly its no better off Coffs Harbour, but south of Batemans Bay there is a sudden drop off. Better off to see the shape of the warm/cool pools.
http://www.marine.csiro.au/~lband/web_point/

Some agreement that Saturday next week may be the warmest, but I cannot see anything too exceptional in the models. 850 temps will only be near 10-13 much of next week, maybe edging towards 14 Saturday. I doubt it will get over 18 up here even on the warmest day.

Hey CS22, just imagine what you would have encountered at this time in 1995. That was the single most power-full April cold change in known history I think. Full mid winter type blizzard hit the area delivering 50cm of snow, temps were near -5 during the blizzard in Perisher. 850 temps were near -4 I think. This froze all the lakes on the main range in one go, might have been enough to ice over part of 3 mile dam, but I was not at that spot that time. Snow fell right down to the Monaro plains. The main range was left with meters deep snow drifts from this one event.

1995 was also the year that Sydney had 31 deg in August- does that mean it was an early winter? Though the two aren't necessarily mutually exclusive as higher temps on the coast can mean stronger fronts.

Yes, exactly, that was one of the weirdest years I have ever seen. The snow remained from second half April onwards into the winter, by the end of May Perisher had enough cover to have opened a few lifts around 70cm in many places. June continued with very severe frosts in the first half when I skated ice skated across Blue Lake on the best ice ever in my life, like polished glass, most was already snow covered but the exposed bits of ice were still large and perfect. Second half June had some major snow falls and the snow kept piling up until first few days of August buy which time there was already well over 2.5m cover, even around Kiandra there were walls of snow around the highway meters deep. Then one day around the 7th August I think a big fat high suddenly parked itself right over the SE and the big August heatwave began. Had winter not ended in early August that could have been the biggest snow year in recorded history, I though it would be for sure, but it was not to be.

Skating on Blue Lake would be magic - lucky you're lighter than me though. I may have load tested it.

I can't imagine what it would have been like to camp out @ 3 mile dam in that 1995 cold snap, Snowmi. Well GFS is still keen on a cool change over Easter, but it seems like a weak one at the moment with the high moving in quickly afterwards, just hope it doesn’t get to windy ahead of the change. I am expecting Sat/Sun nights under the high with the drier air to be rather chilly tho.

CS 22 check Cabramurra for likely temp trends.

Will be keeping a close eye on it Dave. We've decided if things get to much up top then we will retreat to the Yarrangobilly Village Camping Area which i'm told is in the valley and more sheltered from the wind.

A healthy enough April for temps ending -0.8 to the LTA mean here. One the the driest month in 2 years here with just 34.8mm, yet one of the wetter ones for Sydney, typical opposites.
Not sure how May will pan out, but by current outlooks does look like it may be a rather boring uneventful mild month. Today feels like the first day of summer up here with a mild morning and bright hot sun. Maybe like June 2008?. A last burst of warm sunny autumn weeks would be ok if winter hits nice and strong. Certainly nothing in the rain outlook here for May.

April 2011 stats
Ave Min 8.0
Ave Max 14.2
NOAA Mean 10.6 (2.0C cooler than 2010)
Rain - 141mm (Nylex) , 147mm (Vantage Vue) - Katoomba had much more rain in April than other CT & Southern Highlands stations.

Cool start to May here
Cool max of only 10.5C in my sheltered backyard today - pretty typical to get a cool max in the backyard on a relatively calm day like today
Should be our coolest night so far this year - 5.1C currently

Aslaws, the first couple of days of May were warm up here as that cool Easterly did not reach this far. However the recent run of cold weather has eaten away those plus anomalies, in fact as of today the MTD mean will be almost right on normal. From tomorrow onwards below normal. I cannot complain about that, good effort to see the mean matched and soon lower before the middle of the month with the cool half still to go.

Only 44mm of rain for April here in the Lower Blue Mountains.
Pretty lame really. Have had barely a whisp of rain for May so far.

Did get down to zero for the first time last night though!
Have had a 1 degree night & a few 3 degree nights before that.

Where are these ECL we are suppose to be getting this time of year???

May 2011 stats
Ave min 4.6
Ave max 11.0
NOAA mean 7.3 (1.4C cooler than 2010)
Rain - 150mm Nylex but suspect an under-read on 31st May, 166mm Vantage Vue

May has almost felt like a month of winter up here - we have certainly had winter months that were warmer than this May

Looking forward to a winter that is shaping up to be different to recent winters - hopefully 'different' means some snow for the Blue Mountains though no complaining here after my drive up to Sunny Corner on May 12 with my 3 year old boy & walking in 4 inches of snow in the pine forest.

Almost forgot about this thread, thanks for bringing up Aslaws.
Mine were for May; 1.8 to 10.8 and 1.6deg colder mean than 2010, very close to your difference. Rainfall 79.5mm.

Amazing that your YTD rain is about double mine!!.

Yes, I have certainly seen August with temps the same as this May.

Been negative anomalies for the past 3 month now.
Will be a happy chapy if we get negative anomalies for another 3 before spring takes hold.

Monthly High so far for June here sitting on just 10.6, less than May's average max. Now looking likely that 10.6 will not be exceeded in the foreseeable model runs, if that stays as the monthly max will be impressive, normally see one 12deg in June.

Raining moderate here at the moment coming in from the west.

Been a very dry run now for Bathurst, only 14mm for June and just under 80mm for the last 3 month. Still nothing significant really on the horizon either. I wonder if the positive IOD is to blame in contrast to the negative one last year.

Yep lucky it's been cool (so drying out has been slightly limited) but Bathurst is now going to need a good drink before long.

Drizzle from the east this am but extremely light.

Bathurst certainly is starting to fall behind on rain now. Even temps have been nothing spectacular so far this winter. Starting to look likely that mean temps will end up above normal for this winter. Although July is close to normal so far, this cannot hold with the model outlooks now.

What is wrong with July? In 2010 there was no snow on the CT's which was highly unusual. Here we are now in 2011 again facing the same fate with no snow of any significance at all on the CT's. To get two Julys in a row with no snow is getting absurd. However the benign-nes of July is something that I have seen many other years also. It seems like July is an uneventful doldrums period. Often a few cold changes take us into the start of winter but then we have to wait until August for cold changes to resume.

Well the snowfall occurred, Ullr threw that one back in my face.
But its still a crazy very un-winterlike July, with heavy rain on the coast and still parched dry up on the CT's thanks to very poor frontal circulation. Temps still running above normal for winter up here. Seems the cool autumn was not enough to get us back on track for winter.

May certainly felt more like July than July for me!!

After a mild short winter sprummer has begun in earnest at the start of August.
The warm spell this week in the eastern states is the warmest/earliest ever in known history.

Examples; Port Augusta today reached 31.4 smashing the all time high for August that was previously held on 28th August 31.2. This is simply astounding.
Cabrammura reached 12.9 only 3 days into August when the all time high for July is only 10. Extrapolating between the highest for July and August today has broken the all time early high by about 1deg.
There will be plenty more shockers tomorrow and maybe Friday. If you take into account the length of this heatwave then it makes it even worse.

Here is my summary for 2011 for the high CT's east of Bathurst

Y/M T-anom R-anom comment
=======================
11/ 1 0.9 -54.2 (warm-dry)
11/ 2 0.9 -3.6 (warm-slightly-dry)
11/ 3 -0.2 121.7 (slightly-cool-wet)
11/ 4 -0.8 -26.9 (cool-dry)
11/ 5 -0.9 12.4 (cool-slightly-wet)
11/ 6 0.4 -21.7 (slightly-warm-dry)
11/ 7 0.3 -21.0 (slightly-warm-dry)
11/ 8 1.9 -7.6 (very-warm-slightly-dry)
11/ 9 1.1 25.3 (warm-wet)
11/10 0.1 -30.9 (normal-dry)
11/11 1.8 95.7 (very-warm-very-wet)
11/12 -5.1 -46.0 (very-cold-dry) - * so far only

If anyone else would like to place their description of 2011 here month by month in simple terms (eg warm-wet, cool-dry etc) please do so, will be interesting to compare. Maybe Surly, Freeze, Aslaws would have a description to provide from where they live?, or anyone else who gathers data.

For me December certainly on track to get the greatest negative temp anomaly of 2011. Would much rather have had that happen in July than now, its just too cold for summer. DaveM is ok in Bathurst at some ½ a km lower, but up here its just too cold and cloudy to enjoy being out on the deck.

Funny thinking of it as half a km lower!!

Yep - you can freeze fella - I like it like this.

Might have to do a house swap over summer.

Might have to take you up on that, I know my other half would gladly swap. Temperatures would not be so bad if at least there was a bit more sun, its just so dreary and grey lately, getting quite depressing. Still no 20 yet either, temps in teens are good with some sun but under cloud you need low 20's just not to be cold.

Sun Schmun - not a fan really - had my first nasty melanoma aged 17, told I was very likely to lose my leg as well as my life (luckily kept both albeit with a big hole in the leg) quickly followed by severe sun stroke later that year, I've got light skin - keep the sun. The above issues are what set me on a path of sun avoidance (except in the middle of winter when it's stunning - 5 degrees no breeze but full sun - glorious).

Had too much sun growing up in Coonamble & Quirindi obviously (hence the melanoma). I'll take the shade thanks.

As I said in the other thread, I could live happily without the harsh summer sun, except for in the late evening when it's soft. Bad news those melanomas, glad you got out of it OK.

I can understand PD wanting some sunnier weather at that elevation, he's running close to Charlotte Pass's average summer temps atm.

Cheers Brad - see I'm one of those wierdos who could happily live around Charlottes etc all year round.

DaveM, Sorry to hear about the Melanoma, that would make anyone a sun hater, I too love the summer at Charlottes Pass/Perisher, but the sun there can be quite bad. The first time I spent a few summer days in the Snowies in the early 70's our whole family got burnt like lobsters walking the main range, our faces were red as apples and lips cracked and blistered. That was a lesson learnt after coming from high latitude Canada. Thankfully no Melanoma's yet.

People visiting Tassie often get VERY badly burned because the breeze often has coolness in it so people assume the UV is not present - major mistake, I have seen MANY lobster mainlanders in Tas.

Altitude definitely increases sunburn risk - less UV filtered out and it's cooler so as mentioned above, people associate coolness with a lack of UV - double trouble.

Prior to my melanoma and sun stroke (growing up in Coonamble/Quirindi) we didn't wear hats, shirts, shoes etc. We were sun adorers. My mum till the day she died would NOT wear a hat os sunscreen she adored the sun. Dad was a water driller and wore a hat (but usually no shirt). Back then we just didn't realise!! I've had a number of moles cut off over the years, thankfully no more nasties yet.

Bad news Dave

I grew up just on the tail end of the tanning era, so i was quite dark skinned when up to the age of 8 or so, when the slip slop slap program started to be rolled out. I remember the days when you tried to get the biggest skin peal..... ewwwww. Although i've got a natural olive skin base, i do reckon what ever damage i did when i was younger will come back to haunt me later in life. I find it ridiculous the whole concept of getting a tan nowadays, all i see on people is dead skin cells. I wear a rashy when i go to the beach, dong on a hat and apply and re-apply sunblock.

Had the unfortunate incident a few years back fishing north of Cairns, where i forgot to re-apply on the top of my feet. I should have gone to hospital - they got badly infected and i ended up on a drip 2 weeks later- got a lengthy lecture from a skin doctor on how close i came to having skin grafts.... i slept with my feet in ice water for 4 weeks on the lounge floor, and it took 6 months before i could wear any socks/ shoes. Lesson learned.... cover everything!

Good luck with it Dave, i hope that's the last of them.

Hey Greg - that sounds like a VERy bad dose of burn - 4 weeks wow!!.

Hey I'm ok the melanoma was when I was 17 though it was a bit of a shock to an IMMORTAL teenager It shook mum & dad to the core poor buggers, - i've been around a good while since then and I know what to do. I'm just all round more comfy when it's cool, other are exactly the opposite, we all have our own likes and dislikes.

This has been a strange 'high sun' season (you can't call it summer) in Sydney and much of NSW this year. It has been so bizarre that If I were into gambling, I think the following would be good bets:
[*]November 14 to be the hottest day at Obs Hill for the season (OK, not so strange. Sydney often has its hottest day in November).
[*]March 2012 to be the warmest month of the season (Dec to Mar). Reason is that if Easterlies and Southerlies dominate the season as they have to date, the temperature on the coast will follow sea temperatures.
[*]Average maximum at Obs Hill for April 2012 will be warmer than that that for Dec 2011 (likely as we seem to be on track for a Dec average maximum of 23 or lower).
[*]The warmest day in April 2012 at Obs Hill will be warmer than the warmest day in December 2011.
[*]The first 10 days of May will, on average, be warmer than the first 10 days of December.
[*]Longer odds but still possible might be that the average maximum for the first 10 days of June might be warmer than the first 10 days of December; that the hottest day in May will be hotter than the hottest day in December.
Anyway, we shall see in due course.

I have a very controversial view of Melanoma. I believe that genetics plays almost all the part - sunburn? its the trigger that pulls the loaded gun.

I have come to this conclusion observing friends and people I have known to develop Melanoma, some were not beach people at all.

If you have the genetic marker for Melanoma you are fighting a very hard battle as just about any damaging UV exposure puts you at risk - there is no "cumulative" effect, each strong sun exposure is a fresh round of russian roulette.

Now for the really unpopular piece - unfortunately the whole skin cancer debate has been hijacked by this sun avoidance campaign. The $$$ really need to be spent in research of the genetic disposition to melanoma, and perhaps a cure for for Melanoma.

The "cumulative" sun exposures that is demonised by the adverts will lead to skin cancers and sun spots in middle to older age, but these basal and squamous cell cancers that are rarely fatal, unless left untreated beyond reason, for example half your ears have fallen off (yes it happens). Ironically a healthy tan (as in no sunburn) can delay and protect against these cancers. We are also seeing vitamin D deficiency springing up, another undesirable product of sun avoidance.