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#924973 - 10/01/2011 12:22 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
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Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7551
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Looks like there might be some serious rain on the way this Thursday (between 110-120 mm) eek ... runoff also looks to be substantial - about 1.3 mm spread over the catchment area (of several km).

The pressure is probably going to plummet again quite sharply. When I say plummet, the pressure starts falling typically towards the 13th, then on the 13th it nose-drives, and recovers to start rising again.

Pressure here as been hovering around 996-1000 hPa for the last 3 days. Recorded 0.7 mm on Sunday (the 8th). Pressure dropped to 988 just the day before.

And a very interesting phenomenon on the 8th, low-level gusty stratus-type clouds moving swiftly northwest while higher cirrocumulus cloud moving in the opposite direction. The wind direction was again easterly yesterday.


Edited by -Cosmic- (naz) (10/01/2011 12:28)
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#924998 - 10/01/2011 12:45 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7551
Loc: Adelaide Hills
I'm a bit suspicious about the current weather patterns, they suggest:

=> Dominant inland trough of some kind moderating max/min temperatures.
=> Influences from the sub-tropical and tropical infeeds.
=> 13th - Low forms between approximately Ceduna and Cape du couedic and penerates inland to the mid north causing an abrupt shift in temperatures and a sharp temperature gradient orientated north-south.
=> That little stationary puff of cloud on the satellite images in the middle of the Bight.


Edited by -Cosmic- (naz) (10/01/2011 12:48)
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#925622 - 10/01/2011 21:16 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
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Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7551
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Bloody hell...only 3 days out and the forecast rain for the 13th has tripled eek eek !

Forecast now has two peaks for streamflow - 10 mm over catchment area on 13th and 3.5 mm nearing the 14th. Pressure here is crawling towards 990.

I am expecting a pressure of around 977 on the 13th at this stage. Temperature probably won't change much, but humidity will. And I'm not ruling out the possibility of it arriving sooner.


Edited by -Cosmic- (naz) (10/01/2011 21:23)
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#925666 - 10/01/2011 21:52 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
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Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7551
Loc: Adelaide Hills
I'm staying with 12th-14th for now smile .
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#925706 - 10/01/2011 22:13 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
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Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7551
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Just had a look at the MSLP prediction for the Australian Region. If I'm not mistaken that's part of a monsoon trough making it's way south across the continent to be situated where the high is atm (13th-15th). The main routes south are through Perth and Adelaide areas. I've never seen that happen before. Can anyone offer an explanation??? And then there's the East Coast Floods!??

I'm looking at this:

display plot gfs_master_00z.ctl, PRMSLmsl 1000, 03Z10jan2011 to 12Z17jan2011

http://nomad3.ncep.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/pdisp_gfs0.5.sh?dir=%2Fgfs20110110


Edited by -Cosmic- (naz) (10/01/2011 22:21)
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#925736 - 10/01/2011 22:26 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7551
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Check out the line of activity from the Pacific into the SE QLD/NE NSW region, ok...

Where's a frickin weather folklore book when you need one!

On a more serious note, this is sus!


Edited by -Cosmic- (naz) (10/01/2011 22:35)
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#926603 - 11/01/2011 12:55 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7551
Loc: Adelaide Hills
The forecast seems a little more realistic and less sus today, around the 18-mm mark. Been drizzling here this morning, but probably not enough to really affect flows.

77% Humidity, 19 C, and barely a trace of rain, even though the pressure has risen by 4.

To be honest, I still think we could looking at a dumping, up to 50 mm.


Edited by -Cosmic- (naz) (11/01/2011 13:03)
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#926799 - 11/01/2011 15:00 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
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Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7551
Loc: Adelaide Hills
If anyone has any idea why the monsoon trough is predicted to head south, I'm all ears smile . From what I can tell, the trigger looks to be a passing frontal system from the west.

It is very interesting though with the rain over in Queensland, that it has not stopped yet and that there is so much of it. I suspect it is going to continue for some time yet (perhaps not such a good thing). And probably not just due to ENSO influences; the monsoon trough to the north and northeast probably needs to start moving, which is what the MSLP prediction still says it will do.


Edited by -Cosmic- (naz) (11/01/2011 15:06)
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#926960 - 11/01/2011 16:45 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
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Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7551
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Unless things start changing signficantly, my thinking is we could start to consider battening down the hatches (Adelaide Hills).

Latest Obs: Rh: 77%, Max/Min 19/18, P: 996.


Edited by -Cosmic- (naz) (11/01/2011 16:49)
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#927722 - 12/01/2011 12:45 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7551
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Ok, it's gone up again...forecast 70 mm tomorrow.

Edit: Really beginning to think some serious rain is not out of the question. Forecast map has some rather large and interesting totals for the South East 06Z 13th Jan 2011.


Edited by -Cosmic- (naz) (12/01/2011 12:53)
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#927729 - 12/01/2011 12:59 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
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Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7551
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Edit time ran out...

The trough to the north is starting to move, and the system to the west is on its way.
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#927744 - 12/01/2011 13:22 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
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Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7551
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Read and heed: SA Flood Watch!
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#929360 - 14/01/2011 15:19 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
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Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7551
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Rainfall for yesterday was 14.7 mm.


Edited by -Cosmic- (naz) (14/01/2011 15:27)
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#929375 - 14/01/2011 15:40 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
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Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7551
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Modelling of streamflow on a scale of less than 0.1 mm runoff per square metre catchment area in these sorts of drying conditions does not seems appreciable atm. Most of it has been lost to the soil or evaporation long before it reached the river. The increased runoff is there, it's just not substantial.
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#929384 - 14/01/2011 15:49 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
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Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7551
Loc: Adelaide Hills
The local pond is also completely empty. I don't think it has a clay layer beneath it so it's probably permeable to the soil below.

For those interested, they may be the possibility of thundery showers this afternoon.


Edited by -Cosmic- (naz) (14/01/2011 15:58)
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#930106 - 15/01/2011 19:46 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
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Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7551
Loc: Adelaide Hills
0.2 mm to 9 am today, 9 am RH: 68%.

Temp: 36/9...


Edited by -Cosmic- (naz) (15/01/2011 19:50)
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#930452 - 16/01/2011 18:42 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
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Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7551
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Pressure is a bit all over the place atm, 1000 9 am yesterday, 992 7 pm, 998 12 pm today, and 994 at 6. Get the feeling itís slowly rising and might start falling more after the 18th. Will probably know in a few days time.

Normally in more summer months, the pressure is lower on average and more variable, and during winter, higher and less variable (if I've got that right) -- more affected by air density/humidity possibly. So if the pressure is going up, we can expect more rain in summer (if the temperature is going down), and vice versa in winter...or something like that lol.

Iím kinda thinking itís going to rain on the 18th (Tuesday), which is about 2 days away.

Humidity seems to be going up and down like a yo-yo.

Temp was 32 today.

Interesting, forecast seems to have lower temp for today, under 30 (26 ish)...and then til the 20th.
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#930470 - 16/01/2011 20:15 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seira]
teckert Offline
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Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17585
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Hey Carl.

Sorry to interrupt your monologue here but wanted to ask a couple of things.
What is pointing you to rain on Tuesday? I cant see any sign of precipitation coming apart from a weak trough on Thursday.
Secondly, where are you getting your observations from? Barometer and temp? It only got to 27C today in the city, probably slightly cooler in the hills.... not a chance it got as hot as 32C up there....

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#930494 - 16/01/2011 21:32 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: teckert]
Seira Offline
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Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7551
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Originally Posted By: teckert
Hey Carl.
Sorry to interrupt your monologue here but wanted to ask a couple of things.
What is pointing you to rain on Tuesday? I cant see any sign of precipitation coming apart from a weak trough on Thursday.

I use a combination of in-field streamflow observations at several points along the Onkaparinga, GFS (AVN) model outputs on a 3-hourly timescale (shows perhaps 1 mm on the 18th at this stage, but admit I have to be careful there), and a streamflow model I developed during and after my honours research, which uses rainfall to estimate flows and groundwater recharge/discharge.

Originally Posted By: teckert
Secondly, where are you getting your observations from? Barometer and temp? It only got to 27C today in the city, probably slightly cooler in the hills.... not a chance it got as hot as 32C up there....

I have a calibrated aneroid barometer to the nearest hPa estimated based on surrounding BoM sites (Mt. Crawford, Adelaide, etc.), a max/min temperature thermometer which I have been taking consistent daily readings from and which I note whenever there are surrounding environmental changes, and another relative humidity-max/min temperature sensor/gauge to compare against the first temperature readings as a reference point.

Our temperature observations are often reflected in those from Mt Barker, and probably even more so out towards Murray Bridge. It is not uncommon for it to be hotter here than it is in town on some days. We also donít get as much of the sea breeze from the west and humidity can be higher due to orographic uplift and vegetation cover (along with the odd morning fog).

Hope that helps smile .


Edited by -Cosmic- (naz) (16/01/2011 21:33)
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#930498 - 16/01/2011 21:41 Re: Streamflow Observations [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7551
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Atm, given what's been happening in other states recently, I figured it might be worth keeping an eye on these things for a while...however I can't garauntee this thread continuing indefinitely without some kind of feedback/questions, etc smile .


Edited by -Cosmic- (naz) (16/01/2011 21:44)
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