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#941993 - 29/01/2011 22:22 Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - 29/01/11 - 3/2/11 - General Chat
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25465
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
folks, with Vaunatu now issueing cyclone advices for this system, time for its own thread. this is the system that is expected to closely follow TC Anthony on a path towards the Qld coast within the next week.
ordinarily, being in Fiji AOR, this would in the world forum. but with such a large following, and an obvious track into the Australian AOR. This thread will remain in the tropical forum.
***Note, a tech thread on this system will be opened once the low becomes a TC.


Information Number 1 on a Tropical Low issued by the Vanuatu Meteorological Service,
Port Vila at 7:04pm VUT Saturday 29 January 2011.

At 5:00pm local time today, a Tropical Low (1001 hPa) was located near 13.2S 174.3E.
Position poor. System located outside the Vanuatu Tropical Cyclone Tracking Map,
about 710 KM east northeast of Pentecost. The system is slowly moving, but
expected to take a westward track. The Potential for the system to intensify
into a tropical cyclone as well as move to the northern or central islands
of Vanuatu is moderate.

Forecast Positions
Date and Time Position Intensity
+06 hours (11pm, 29 Jan) 13.5S, 173.4E 25 KTS (45 KM/HR)
+12 hours (5am, 30 Jan) 13.8S, 172.7E 30 KTS (55 KM/HR)
+18 hours (11am, 30 Jan) 14.0S, 171.9E 30 KTS (55 KM/HR)
+24 hours (5pm, 30 Jan) 14.1S, 171.1E 30 KTS (55 KM/HR)
+36 hours (5am, 31 Jan) 14.3S, 169.4E 40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+48 hours (5pm, 31 Jan) 14.5S, 167.3E 40 KTS (75 KM/HR)

Heavy rainfall is forecast to affect Vanuatu by late Sunday or Monday. Seas are
rough over the central, channel and southern waters, and a marine strong
wind warning has been issued for these areas. Seas will become very rough
with heavy swells by late Sunday or Monday. The National Disaster Management
Office (NDMO) has advised that there is currently no threat to the islands
of Vanuatu, but that people must be prepared to take precautionay measures
should the situation changes.

The Vanuatu Meteorological Service will issue the next information by 6am
tomorrow morning or earlier should the situation changes. People throughout
northern and central Vanuatu should listen to Radio Outlets to
get the latest information on this system
_________________________
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June 2019 total - 27.8mm (21.2mm)
July 2019 total - 0.0mm (14.9mm)
2019 Yearly total to date - 2049.9mm (1129mm)

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#942010 - 29/01/2011 22:27 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - 29/01/11 - 3/2/11 - General Chat [Re: Mick10]
Occo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/12/2007
Posts: 298
Loc: Mackay, Qld
System is certainly firing up on the MTSAT with heaps of moisture. Looks simply HUGE!Can already see three feeder bands too.

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#942022 - 29/01/2011 22:33 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - 29/01/11 - 3/2/11 - General Chat [Re: Occo]
Things Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 8400
Loc: Blair Athol, SA
Indeed Occo, this thing would eat Anthony whole at this point!

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#942024 - 29/01/2011 22:35 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - 29/01/11 - 3/2/11 - General Chat [Re: Occo]
WANDJINA G'vale Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/03/2006
Posts: 2525
Loc: Gordonvale - Qld
This is by far the most worrying development at present. Really struggling to work out what I will do if it takes Mackay as ground zero at CAT 4 or worse
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#942026 - 29/01/2011 22:35 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - 29/01/11 - 3/2/11 - General Chat [Re: Occo]
SGB Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/04/2010
Posts: 221
Loc: Canberra
Yes, certainly seems to be bombing atm looking at the MTSAT loop. With low shear tendency and SST anomalies around 1 degree above normal, prime conditions for rapid development.

[img:center]http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-...sht&zoom=&time=[/img]

Edit: Not sure how to display an image in my post sans the link showing.


Edited by SGB (29/01/2011 22:37)
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#942030 - 29/01/2011 22:37 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - 29/01/11 - 3/2/11 - General Chat [Re: SGB]
homehillrains Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/08/2010
Posts: 226
Loc: Home Hill
yeah guys this system looks good already

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#942036 - 29/01/2011 22:39 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - 29/01/11 - 3/2/11 - General Chat [Re: SGB]
Occo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/12/2007
Posts: 298
Loc: Mackay, Qld
Still cant get around how after each frame- it simply GROWS! That feeder heading off its southern flank is extremely healthy- and you can see from the last couple of frames- all that moisture to its east is being sucked in.

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#942039 - 29/01/2011 22:41 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - 29/01/11 - 3/2/11 - General Chat [Re: Occo]
Leebie3 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 47
Loc: Mt Sheridan, Cairns
It looks UBER scary :-s very ominous... What are the chances of it coming near Cairns? too far out to tell... I know, I know.. but those that have been watching the weather in these parts for a long time... what does your gut tell you?


Edited by Leebie (29/01/2011 22:43)
Edit Reason: hit post too soon

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#942040 - 29/01/2011 22:41 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - 29/01/11 - 3/2/11 - General Chat [Re: Occo]
Things Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 8400
Loc: Blair Athol, SA
Clearly the models knew it was going to happen smile

I'm actually excited if this thing comes near Cairns, however terrified too. I'm not sure what I'd do if it approached as a cat 4 and above system.

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#942041 - 29/01/2011 22:42 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - 29/01/11 - 3/2/11 - General Chat [Re: homehillrains]
Seventh Storm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/06/2010
Posts: 181
Loc: Cairns
Well I'm still thinking it could be a fizzer. Just got a feeling that the fact Anthony is crossing about 4 days before it will somehow inhibit it's potential. No scientific reasoning for that, just got a gut feeling. Hope I'm wrong tho.

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#942044 - 29/01/2011 22:44 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - 29/01/11 - 3/2/11 - General Chat [Re: Seventh Storm]
Things Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 8400
Loc: Blair Athol, SA
What will be handy is Anthony going first will give us a rough estimate of the path he'll take, as we already have a basic idea of what other upper levels are up to. Of course, if it becomes a severe system, it can create it's own steering influences and go anywhere.

Interesting (and scary) times ahead.

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#942049 - 29/01/2011 22:45 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - 29/01/11 - 3/2/11 - General Chat [Re: Seventh Storm]
awritingpassion Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/01/2011
Posts: 70
Loc: Brisbane, Australia
Originally Posted By: Seventh Storm
Well I'm still thinking it could be a fizzer. Just got a feeling that the fact Anthony is crossing about 4 days before it will somehow inhibit it's potential. No scientific reasoning for that, just got a gut feeling. Hope I'm wrong tho.


If anything it will help...Anthony will leave behind a fair bit of moisture....and by the time Yasi comes through (assuming she does) the area will have stabilised a bit with water temperatures etc. It doesn't take very long. Especially if Yasi comes in a SW or SSW track...it will miss the track of Anthony altogether.

But it is your gut feeling so who am I to argue wink

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#942052 - 29/01/2011 22:46 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - 29/01/11 - 3/2/11 - General Chat [Re: Things]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 2270
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Wonder what levy they will think up for this event? that is IF things eventuate as so far predicted.

Has anyone done any sort of estimate as to the destructive wind coverage compared to the size of Larry IE: larry was fairly small in size while still packing a big punch, but this one appears to be at least two-three times the size with the same force.

Im not clued in on the MSLP markings ? (if that is what they are) you know the little lines making circles within circles thingys but could someone with the nouse to do so give us an indication of the area we could expect to see destructive winds just going on the models at this stage.

I know it's all up in the air so to speak so far (no pun intended) but a rough guide to what we could expect area wise according to what is indicated so far would be good, just to give a heads up to those in the expected outlying areas.

Thanks in advance for those who know this stuff. smile

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#942053 - 29/01/2011 22:46 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - 29/01/11 - 3/2/11 - General Chat [Re: Things]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6861
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
I am with you there.
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#942055 - 29/01/2011 22:47 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - 29/01/11 - 3/2/11 - General Chat [Re: Seventh Storm]
Occo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/12/2007
Posts: 298
Loc: Mackay, Qld
Originally Posted By: Seventh Storm
Well I'm still thinking it could be a fizzer. Just got a feeling that the fact Anthony is crossing about 4 days before it will somehow inhibit it's potential. No scientific reasoning for that, just got a gut feeling. Hope I'm wrong tho.

i recall only a few years ago- over in WA- they had 2 TC's hitting thesame area of coastline only a few days apart. I forget their names- but im sure a few of the lads in here would know what Im talking about.
What Im trying to say here is- a TC- given the right environment- can quite happily follow the path of an existing TC sufficiently. SST's will still be more than adequate to support a second system in the Coral Sea a few days after TC Anthony.

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#942058 - 29/01/2011 22:47 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - 29/01/11 - 3/2/11 - General Chat [Re: marakai]
reefgirl40 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/12/2010
Posts: 193
Loc: Redlynch Valley
That's a fantastic question marakai - pretty much sums up what I was wondering - this thing looks HUGE!

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#942061 - 29/01/2011 22:48 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - 29/01/11 - 3/2/11 - General Chat [Re: Leebie3]
storms Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 13/03/2005
Posts: 30
Loc: Bribie Island
That feeder band at 170 /18 degrees on the latest GMS Image from Fiji Met is very impressive.. Alot can happen in 4 days though
Fiji Sat Image

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#942062 - 29/01/2011 22:48 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - 29/01/11 - 3/2/11 - General Chat [Re: awritingpassion]
DeniseEm Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/02/2010
Posts: 1092
Loc: Cobar, NSW
I have been looking at an old track map of Larry and i noticed he came from out the same area as what this one is in. Also he didnt make Cat 5 status till a couple of hundred kilometres from land then dropped back to a cat 4 status. So anything is possible. Never discount a Low or a cyclone till they cross land.


Edited by DeniseEm (29/01/2011 22:49)
Edit Reason: wrote metres LMFAO meant Kilometres

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#942064 - 29/01/2011 22:48 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - 29/01/11 - 3/2/11 - General Chat [Re: storms]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23724
Loc: Townsville
Cyclone George ( cat 5 ) port headland
Cyclone Jacob occo smile 2008 i think.
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#942070 - 29/01/2011 22:50 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - 29/01/11 - 3/2/11 - General Chat [Re: Seventh Storm]
SGB Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/04/2010
Posts: 221
Loc: Canberra
Originally Posted By: Seventh Storm
Well I'm still thinking it could be a fizzer. Just got a feeling that the fact Anthony is crossing about 4 days before it will somehow inhibit it's potential. No scientific reasoning for that, just got a gut feeling. Hope I'm wrong tho.


There is some scientific reasoning there Seventh Storm. As a tropical cyclone tracks over sea, because of the constant and deep cloud cover, it somewhat reduces the SST over the area it travels. Although Anthony was never a broad/deep cyclone, the SST anomalies where Anthony has been is a little cooler.

Link.
_________________________
Chinese proverb: “Only he who has travelled the road knows where the holes are deep”

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