He does indeed appear to be taking some form! Yasi is a he, isn't it? I dunno

I bet he'll have a pretty nice structure by the morning, the way he is going. He's going to be a beast though, he's already huge!

Well that looks interesting TCP. Starting to look like a cyclone now insead of jsut a blob. Certainly is going to be an interesting week ahead. But to copy a bit of what Captain Bligh said during the floods, while all this weather may knock us down (again and again by the looks), we are Queenslanders, we're the tough buggers north of the Tweed, we will get thru it, we will come out the other end, and we will rebuild.

haha im not sure about gender with Yazi? I was referring to it as being Grover though and i think he is a he??

Wow if this comes off:



Apart from the very strong winds wherever it makes landfall, what really concerns me is what will happen when that awesome amount of rain over a very wide area moves into the state. We're gonna see major flooding in many districts again. This could flood half the state.

I think Yasi is a he, however if he's going to be that nasty maybe he should be a she. LOL. Transgender!

You may even get major flooding into NE MSW if the rain bands in the SW swing around.

There is a big trend south with all the systems heading into Feb and March.

Yasi in fiji is a type of Sandlewood a endangered species. Maybe this cyclone is an endangered species as well. LOL Here is the article i found on the name of Yasi

"Sandalwood is called yasi in Fiji and also grows in Vanuatu and Tonga.The plant belongs to the Santalaceae family. The tree can grow to as high as 12m with trunks reaching 30cm in diameter. The tree is semiparasitic with the roots attaching to other host trees and providing water and some mineral nutrients. Accordingly, it is well adapted to periodic dry conditions. The flowers are rich pink to purplish red, and the fleshy fruits drupe turns from green to purple or reddish-violet when matured. The fruits and flowers are found throughout the year.

Sandalwood is an integral part of the history and ecology of Fiji.

The aromatic wood of yasi is highly prized and in the early 1800s American and English ships exploited the yasi in Vanua Levu, particularly Bua. They even called Vanua Levu Sandalwood Island. They damaged the plantations by chopping at the trees to obtain the rich oil base of the tree. Within thirty years the forests were decimated. I suppose the Fijians were given axes and trinkets. It is a sad tale of exploitation."

God help Brisbane and SEQ if those rain bands come here. It will be the same all over again. Maybe worse with the ground so saturated from last time.

from jtwc

" (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.1S
173.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.3S 172.4E, APPROXIMATELY 355 NM
NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS CONVECTION HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) AS EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IMPROVED DURING THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, FORMATIVE BANDING HAS BECOME MORE APPARENT ALONG
THE NORTHERN RIM. A 291031Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LLCC
WITH 30-KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS FEEDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER AN
EXTENSION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
FOUR NUMERICAL MODELS PREDICT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB.
DUE TO THE IMPROVED UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2) TO
FAIR.//
NNNN"

Is there any chance of Yasi catching up with Anthony, and if so would it intensify or diminish him/her/it??

Must say I am very disappointed in the Courier Mail's coverage which must be creating panic in SE Qld. Very sensationalistic headlines like "here we go again", "worse to come" and "nightmare scenario". Yesterday they said "this new rain event could dwarf our big flood". Fair enough reporting on Anna Blighs precautionary warning but no need to create hypotheticals. It is not a cyclone yet and is more likely to impact the north if it stays strong and reaches the coast. Heads up definitely required but without all the scary headlines.

From JTWC:

WTPS21 PGTW 291700
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.3S
172.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.3S 172.4E, APPROXIMATELY 315 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 291408Z AMSU IMAGE INDICATE INCREASING CONSOLIDATION OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. A 291031Z ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTED
A SYMMETRIC, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
25-30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS, THE LLCC HAS STRENGTHENED AND BECOME WELL-DEFINED. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER AN
EXTENSION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WITH WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. OVERALL, THE OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED WITH CONTINUED GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO A STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF FIJI. NUMERICAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO PREDICT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-
48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
DUE TO THE IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
301700Z.//
NNNN

I am in two minds about this sensasionalism in the media ... it gets people thinking ... taking the scenario seriously and prepare for it, move a notch up the disaster planning ... that might be the time people may start thinking about starting the preparation ...

and regarding panic buying ... this early in the game, supermarkets still have plenty of time to re-stock and count their winnings smiling all the way to the bank ... I would vote for if there has to be panic buying, let it happen now, while the thread is not that real yet ... the panic buying will be out of the way then and live room and stock for the sensible buying later on ... not so much pressure then, let people on the queues ... hope you get my drift ...

The following is the first tropical disturbance advisory issued by Nadi. It's a bit old (issued at midnight EST) and a lot has transpired since:

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 29/1400 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD09F CENTRE 1003HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2S
171.9E AT 291200 UTC. TD09F MOVING WEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. POSITION
POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 29 DEGREE CELCIUS.

ORGANISATION IMPROVED SLIGHTLY PAST 12 HOURS. CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES ALONG A
SURFACE TROUGH AND UNDER 250HPA RIDGE AXIS IN A WEAK SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 500HPA. SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO BE STEERED WESTWARDS MAINLY BY THE DEEP LAYER MEAN EASTERLIES.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE GRADUALLY DEVELOPING THE DEPRESSION AND MAINTAINING
A WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

Indeed, convection is still flaring and against the dinurnal minimum. Outflow channels are forming both polewards and equatorwards. The only hampering factor is that it is being buffeted by moderate shear to its NE. Very impressive system on the IR colourised loop at the moment. It's developing quite rapidly and I don't believe it's far off from being named.

EC - Bowen crossing
GFS - Ingham too cardwell crossing
CMC - Airlie Beach Crossing

This is the one we folk here in mackay are concerned about.

Just for a bit of fun... Yasi, according to Wikipedia, stands for 'Yet Another Space Invader' . A video game created in 2003 by Vectrex.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yasi

Seriously though, this one has got me very concerned. If it does pull off according to the models, I reckon it'll have an impact hundreds of kms north and south of the system and even stretching east of the system, simply due to it's very large size. I'm actually wondering now how big it will get in comparasion to TC Justin in '96/97. When that occured, I remember getting gusty winds from that system all the way down here in SEQ!

I've had a gut feeling that Yasi will be nasty, the last time I had a gut feeling about a significant weather system was the Brisbane floods, and that definately pulled off.

Anthony will be a mozzie bite compared to this I reckon, and I'll definately keep my eye on this one, far more than I have on Anthony.

Given only a few days ago Anthony was going to hit Cairns or Cooktown I think the models are not that reliable this far out...

Bundaberg to Thursday Island might be the best bet for a crossing...

Big time intensification and also a huge black centre on the latest frame of the MTSAT-IR! Interesting times ahead, my gut feeling at the moment is for a Mackay crossing.

where is your guess for Landfall??