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#946015 - 31/01/2011 15:01 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - Technical Discussion Only [Re: yankeedownunder]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25465
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 1:52pm EST on Monday the 31st of January 2011

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for coastal and island communities from
Cooktown to Yeppoon.

At 1:00 pm EST Tropical Cyclone Yasi, Category 2 was estimated to be
1880 kilometres east northeast of Townsville and 1730 kilometres east northeast
of Mackay moving west at 30 kilometres per hour.

The cyclone is expected to intensify as it moves west over the Coral Sea.

Damaging winds are expected to develop about coastal and island communities
between Cooktown and Yeppoon Wednesday morning.

People between Cooktown and Yeppoon should consider what action they will need
to take if the cyclone threat increases.

- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au]
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage].

Details of Tropical Cyclone Yasi at 1:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 13.6 degrees South 163.4 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west at 30 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 150 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 975 hectoPascals


Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued by 5:00 pm EST Monday 31 January.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2019 total - 27.8mm (21.2mm)
July 2019 total - 0.0mm (14.9mm)
2019 Yearly total to date - 2049.9mm (1129mm)

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#946125 - 31/01/2011 15:43 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - Technical Discussion Only [Re: Mick10]
!SCHUMMY! Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/04/2008
Posts: 2915
Loc: Jimboomba, SEQ
Here is the latest Track Map from the BoM



this one is gonna be serious, i wouldnt be surprised to see a cat 5 on their track maps soon....

also those very destructive winds extend along way out from the centre on the southern/south-eastern quadrants


Edited by !SCHUMMY! (31/01/2011 15:44)
Edit Reason: more info as usual

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#946159 - 31/01/2011 15:56 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - Technical Discussion Only [Re: !SCHUMMY!]
Wet Wet Wet Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2008
Posts: 2332
Loc: Mackay, Qld


I thought I’d post this track map as the other one posted above it will continue to update forever into the future as it has not been uploaded to an image hosting site.

I could be wrong here, but this is possibly the first time ever parts of Queensland have been on a Cyclone Watch/Warning for 2 different systems less than 24hrs apart following the passage of Anthony yesterday.



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#946176 - 31/01/2011 16:04 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - Technical Discussion Only [Re: opplevelse]
opplevelse Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/08/2006
Posts: 735
Loc: Christiania, slightly east of ...
Originally Posted By: opplevelse
Yes and the quadrant to the south of the eye is the most vulnerable as it will have the highest winds and the largest seas. Next decent (SSMIS) sensor pass will be on F17 at 03:40Z, so no decent scans for another hour or two.
my bad I was looking at the closest point of approach which was 340km not the actually overpass time blush oops, F17 actually is due at 06:37Z in about 1:40hr, the TRMM pass will be too far away, so we'll just have to wait for F17.

That BoM track map is interesting in that it has really downplayed the winds in the north quadrant, which I assume is primarily becuase of the storms bulk motion?
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#946217 - 31/01/2011 16:22 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - Technical Discussion Only [Re: opplevelse]
markj23 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 22/11/2006
Posts: 38
Loc: Redlynch
im willing to host any images/maps in relation to Yasi, just so the info isn't spread out/lost by any image hosts in the future

feel free to PM me and i can provide email details, or provide you with FTP details to upload yourself

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#946227 - 31/01/2011 16:25 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - Technical Discussion Only [Re: markj23]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7918
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Picture taken about 2 hours ago approx. Yasi is looking nice out there.


In a very basic summary of what is going to steer Yasi is in the Picture below. She should slide West maybe a little WSW along the top of those lovely white contoured lines and then roll off the edge nearing the coast to slide down to the SW at, before or after landfall (this may happen after landfall though as those lovely white contoured lines could stay their until landfall.) Please tell me if that wrong anyone. Which is a way to understand what the big guns are saying below.

TC 11P (YASI) IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 (the next 72hours). THE STR IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT WILL SHIFT EAST AND RE-
ORIENT AS A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER CENTRAL
AUSTRALIA AFTER TAU 72 (after 72 hrs). THIS WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TURN
SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER MAKING LANDFALL NEAR TAU 72.
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Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#946229 - 31/01/2011 16:26 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - Technical Discussion Only [Re: Popeye]
Hinezy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/06/2007
Posts: 1370
Loc: Red Hill SE QLD
Sorry if this image is oversize.. but here's a Hi-Res pic..

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www.southbrisbanestorms.com

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#946258 - 31/01/2011 16:38 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - Technical Discussion Only [Re: Hinezy]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7918
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
My undersatnding also is that intense systems are steered high in the uppers whereas Smaller CAT1+2s are steered closer to the surface. Can anyone see any insights into what Upper atmosphere systems will come into play that might give a little shift here or there or is it going to be straightine Steering WSW to the coast.
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Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#946299 - 31/01/2011 16:54 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - Technical Discussion Only [Re: Popeye]
TC Poncho Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/01/2010
Posts: 2199
Loc: Point Cartwright, Sunny Coast,...
Originally Posted By: Popeye
My undersatnding also is that intense systems are steered high in the uppers whereas Smaller CAT1+2s are steered closer to the surface. Can anyone see any insights into what Upper atmosphere systems will come into play that might give a little shift here or there or is it going to be straightine Steering WSW to the coast.


GFS +12hrs, that low to the right of SEQ is set to take over and head E into the over SEQ, hence South steering!


GFS +24hrs


GFS +36hrs
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#946321 - 31/01/2011 17:04 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - Technical Discussion Only [Re: TC Poncho]
Mad Elf #1 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 30
Loc: Logan City
So, is it possible Yasi slipping further south if that high pressure system moves over?
I suppose it will have to slow down a tad. Or is there some other influence that can bring it further
south toward SEQ??

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#946367 - 31/01/2011 17:26 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - Technical Discussion Only [Re: TC Poncho]
Blueycairns Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/03/2010
Posts: 155
Loc: Darwin ex Cairns
Sorry TC Poncho didnt understand that too well. The low looks to be heading west not east, am I looking at the right low? The High looks to be heading east.
Still trying to work out the steering influences.
Re Popeyes steering post above(it looks to be the the 400-850mb layer) why would the system not move in a NW direction with the flow?

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#946441 - 31/01/2011 17:58 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - Technical Discussion Only [Re: Blueycairns]
opplevelse Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/08/2006
Posts: 735
Loc: Christiania, slightly east of ...
I wont put this one up as it is a lower resolution multi (from SSMI) and the SSMIS one is due fairly soon. Dosent show much new info anyway, although the eye seems to be much tighter ... although that could just be the resolution considering the size of the system:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc11/SH...-1625E.83pc.jpg

Still fully covered eye, but CDO will centrallised now over LLCC .... waiting for F17 to come up! smile
_________________________
"Science is a lot like sex ... sometimes something useful comes out, but that's not the reason we do it." - Richard Feynman

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#946452 - 31/01/2011 18:02 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - Technical Discussion Only [Re: Blueycairns]
SGB Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/04/2010
Posts: 221
Loc: Canberra
Imo TC Yasi looks to be heading SW now, mainly due to the convection on its southern flank. The way I understand it, is that the area of strongest convection is usually the direction the cyclone is headed, due to compression as the cyclone pushes against the atmosphere.

Please someone correct me if I'm wrong about this.
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#946457 - 31/01/2011 18:03 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - Technical Discussion Only [Re: SGB]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25465
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 2
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 5:02pm EST on Monday the 31st of January 2011

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for coastal and island communities from
Cooktown to Yeppoon.

At 4:00 pm EST Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi, Category 3 was estimated to be
1780 kilometres east northeast of Townsville and 1630 kilometres east northeast
of Mackay moving west at 30 kilometres per hour.

The cyclone is expected to intensify as it moves west over the Coral Sea.

Damaging winds are expected to develop about coastal and island communities
between Cooktown and Yeppoon Wednesday morning.

People between Cooktown and Yeppoon should consider what action they will need
to take if the cyclone threat increases.

- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au]
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage].

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi at 4:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 13.8 degrees South 162.5 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west at 30 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 185 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING
.Severity category........ 3
.Central pressure......... 970 hectoPascals


Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm EST Monday 31 January.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2019 total - 27.8mm (21.2mm)
July 2019 total - 0.0mm (14.9mm)
2019 Yearly total to date - 2049.9mm (1129mm)

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#946464 - 31/01/2011 18:04 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - Technical Discussion Only [Re: Mick10]
Things Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 8400
Loc: Blair Athol, SA
BoM just pushed it a little further North now!


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#946492 - 31/01/2011 18:14 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - Technical Discussion Only [Re: Things]
Stevo59 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/01/2009
Posts: 1037
Loc: Cairns
Presumably the distortion in the wind radii are due to the fast speed of the cyclone? Has anyone ever seen this before with other cyclone tracking maps or is this a new BoM tracking aid? Most interesting. Any ideas?

If it was due to frictional effects of the land then it would only occur when the cyclone neared the coast, not right out to sea.

The revision to the north is very interesting and possibly reflects Yasi's greater than expected forward speed. This putting the Cardwell-Tully area in the firing line at this stage.

I see it will be a borderline Cat. 5 on landing:FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 31/1800: 13.9S 158.8E: 050 [095]: 085 [155]: 957
+24: 01/0600: 15.0S 155.6E: 080 [150]: 095 [175]: 947
+36: 01/1800: 16.0S 152.3E: 110 [210]: 095 [175]: 945
+48: 02/0600: 17.2S 149.2E: 145 [270]: 100 [185]: 939
+60: 02/1800: 18.6S 146.4E: 190 [355]: 105 [195]: 926
+72: 03/0600: 20.0S 143.6E: 240 [445]: 050 [095]: 982


Edited by Stevo59 (31/01/2011 18:18)
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#946500 - 31/01/2011 18:18 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - Technical Discussion Only [Re: Things]
opplevelse Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/08/2006
Posts: 735
Loc: Christiania, slightly east of ...
Originally Posted By: BoM Technical Update

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0656 UTC 31/01/2011
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi
Identifier: 14U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 13.8S
Longitude: 162.5E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: west [263 deg]
Speed of Movement: 17 knots [31 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 75 knots [140 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 100 knots [185 km/h]
Central Pressure: 970 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 175 nm [325 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm [335 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 31/1800: 13.9S 158.8E: 050 [095]: 085 [155]: 957
+24: 01/0600: 15.0S 155.6E: 080 [150]: 095 [175]: 947
+36: 01/1800: 16.0S 152.3E: 110 [210]: 095 [175]: 945
+48: 02/0600: 17.2S 149.2E: 145 [270]: 100 [185]: 939
+60: 02/1800: 18.6S 146.4E: 190 [355]: 105 [195]: 926
+72: 03/0600: 20.0S 143.6E: 240 [445]: 050 [095]: 982
REMARKS:
Curved band 1.45 on MTSAT VIS at 0530UTC gives a DT of 4.5. Outflow increasing
further to north and starting to now increase to the south. System is showing
increased organisation with persistent deep convection near its centre. TC is
entering a favourable environment for intensification and ridge to south is
expected to steer it rapidly towards the west southwest.

_________________________
"Science is a lot like sex ... sometimes something useful comes out, but that's not the reason we do it." - Richard Feynman

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#946509 - 31/01/2011 18:20 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - Technical Discussion Only [Re: Stevo59]
opplevelse Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/08/2006
Posts: 735
Loc: Christiania, slightly east of ...
Originally Posted By: Stevo59
Presumably the distortion in the wind radii are due to the fast speed of the cyclone? Has anyone ever seen this before with other cyclone tracking maps or is this a new BoM tracking aid? Most interesting. Any ideas?...
Yep that is what I said earlier. It is odd, you do not normally see it so pronounced, but the shape of the "divot" for want of a better term, is consistant with what you would get if bulk motion WRT land was the reason.
_________________________
"Science is a lot like sex ... sometimes something useful comes out, but that's not the reason we do it." - Richard Feynman

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#946540 - 31/01/2011 18:32 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - Technical Discussion Only [Re: opplevelse]
opplevelse Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/08/2006
Posts: 735
Loc: Christiania, slightly east of ...

Much tighter
_________________________
"Science is a lot like sex ... sometimes something useful comes out, but that's not the reason we do it." - Richard Feynman

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#946563 - 31/01/2011 18:39 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - Technical Discussion Only [Re: Blueycairns]
TC Poncho Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/01/2010
Posts: 2199
Loc: Point Cartwright, Sunny Coast,...
Originally Posted By: Blueycairns
Sorry TC Poncho didnt understand that too well. The low looks to be heading west not east, am I looking at the right low? The High looks to be heading east.
Still trying to work out the steering influences.
Re Popeyes steering post above(it looks to be the the 400-850mb layer) why would the system not move in a NW direction with the flow?


yeah sorry, I ment the low was heading west towards the SEQ while the high is moving east. You are right grin

with Popeyes chart, your more looking at the high well below the TC indicated on the map


Edited by TC Poncho (31/01/2011 18:41)
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