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#946410 - 31/01/2011 17:43 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - 29/01/11 - 3/2/11 - General Chat [Re: camtang]
ozlissa Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 107
Loc: Sunshine Coast, Queensland

I tried to quote but failed.. Could whoever is talking about the one behind yasi, please post a link to that image plz.. ty

Also, we in the southeast of queensland have to remember that every 30 yrs or so we get cyclones down this far.. Wanda hit brisbane in 74.. so we are in the due zone.. it is possible for any one of these massive storms to make it this far.. due I think primarly to their strength.. we all had better have a plan I think...


Edited by ozlissa (31/01/2011 17:44)

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#946412 - 31/01/2011 17:43 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - 29/01/11 - 3/2/11 - General Chat [Re: RWM's Daughter]
RoughDiamond Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/01/2011
Posts: 50
Loc: Victoria Australia
I swear the final image the centre of Yasi looks like Winni The Pooh ... seriously!
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Of course it's raining outside! Since when does it rain inside???

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#946413 - 31/01/2011 17:44 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - 29/01/11 - 3/2/11 - General Chat [Re: RoughDiamond]
RoughDiamond Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/01/2011
Posts: 50
Loc: Victoria Australia
Oh bugger, it changed. That was at 0432 and now it's at 0532.
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Of course it's raining outside! Since when does it rain inside???

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#946415 - 31/01/2011 17:46 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - 29/01/11 - 3/2/11 - General Chat [Re: Things]
Lego Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/03/2010
Posts: 55
Loc: Mackay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Things
Anyone know how schools react to cyclones? Do they cancel if a warning is issued? and remain closed until the warning is gone? A day off school would be nice, so at least I can watch him smile


Im fairly sure school's close once a warning is issued for a crossing within 24 hours-ish. Someone said that on wednesday we are suppose to experience winds up to 100km/ph, so i cant imagine schools would take the risk of injury to students and staff if they stayed open. But hey even if they do stay open, just pull a sicky smile haha

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#946416 - 31/01/2011 17:46 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - 29/01/11 - 3/2/11 - General Chat [Re: Things]
Tales Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 46
Loc: Springbrook, GC Hinterland. Fo...
Originally Posted By: Things
Anyone know how schools react to cyclones? Do they cancel if a warning is issued? and remain closed until the warning is gone? A day off school would be nice, so at least I can watch him smile


I remember these things from when I was a kid in Mackay. The local radio station will confirm if schools are closed for the day (and which ones), usually early in the morning. But if you are at all concerned, you're his parent, the decision is ultimately yours whether you send him to school in these sorts of circumstances. I remember Mum and Dad keeping us home at time or two as kids even when school was still open with the approach of nasty cyclones, because it eased their mind to know where we were.

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#946417 - 31/01/2011 17:46 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - 29/01/11 - 3/2/11 - General Chat [Re: ozlissa]
Coxy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 1044
Loc: Jindalee, QLD
Originally Posted By: ozlissa

I tried to quote but failed.. Could whoever is talking about the one behind yasi, please post a link to that image plz.. ty

Also, we in the southeast of queensland have to remember that every 30 yrs or so we get cyclones down this far.. Wanda hit brisbane in 74.. so we are in the due zone.. it is possible for any one of these massive storms to make it this far.. due I think primarly to their strength.. we all had better have a plan I think...


I recall Cyclone Nancy threatened to come our way in January 1990. She was only a very weak category 1, but if memory serves, still caused or contributed to quite significant flooding in SEQ that time of year.

/off topic (apologies)

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#946419 - 31/01/2011 17:46 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - 29/01/11 - 3/2/11 - General Chat [Re: RoughDiamond]
RWM's Daughter Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/12/2010
Posts: 1125
Loc: North Lakes, Brisbane QLD
Wow, practically 1400 people already watching this forum and Yasi isn't even in our waters yet!
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Link to my weather station - RWMD's Weather


Todays forecast - "Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs"...

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#946420 - 31/01/2011 17:46 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - 29/01/11 - 3/2/11 - General Chat [Re: james1977]
exodus Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/12/2007
Posts: 584
Loc: Mount Louisa, Townsville
Originally Posted By: james1977
The dynamics of tropical cyclone motion are investigated by solving for
instantaneous motion tendencies using the divergent barotropic vorticity
equation on a beta plane. Two methods of solution are presented a direct
analytic solution for a constant basic current, and a simple numerical
solution for more general conditions. These solutions indicate that
cyclone motion can be accurately prescribed by a nonlinear combination
of two processes. 1) an interaction between the cyclone and its basic
current (the well known steering concept), and 2) an interaction with
the Earth's vorticity field which causes a westward deviation from the
pure steering flow. The nonlinear manner in which these two processes
combine with the effect of asymmetries in the steering current raise
some interesting questions on the way in which cyclones of different
characteristics interact with their environment, and has implications
for tropical cyclone forecasting and the manner in which forecasting
techniques are derived.


you need to quote sources

http://www.mendeley.com/research/tropica...-a-beta-effect/

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#946423 - 31/01/2011 17:47 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - 29/01/11 - 3/2/11 - General Chat [Re: Coxy]
RoughDiamond Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/01/2011
Posts: 50
Loc: Victoria Australia
_________________________
Of course it's raining outside! Since when does it rain inside???

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#946424 - 31/01/2011 17:48 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - 29/01/11 - 3/2/11 - General Chat [Re: lou lou]
LogansRun Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 12/01/2008
Posts: 14
Loc: Bowen
Head all warnings seriously and dont waste time... find out the correct info and then take appropriate action, this cyclone cud be a major killer if people pussy foot around. I myself will be moving my stuff out as I expect not to come back to a place thats livable. Slight panic in Bowen I felt today, people r thinking worse then cyclone Larry... anyone else think so??

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#946425 - 31/01/2011 17:48 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - 29/01/11 - 3/2/11 - General Chat [Re: Popeye]
H'Bay Qld Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/01/2011
Posts: 136
Originally Posted By: Popeye
Not trying to scare anyone but the stormsurge on the southern side of such a large system will be HUGE. 4 to 5 to 6 metres +. You would want to hope no big cities are on the near southern side of the crossing point. That water could well push along way inland. Over here in WA which has bugger all towns some of the big CAT 4+ storm surges have pushed KMs inland especially low lying areas. Its usually confined mostly to the immediate onshore wind side but with Yasi being potentially quite a big system who knows how far south the storm surge risk may stretch.

If I was living along the coast the howling winds would be frightening enough let alone sea water rushing under the doors and filling up. The act of storm surge water and wind on a structure would probably destroy a lot of structures in the direct firing line. Depending on what the likely outcome of Yasi's path will be we could be about to witness one of Australias biggest urban evacuations if it heads in the right (wrong) spot. Lets hope it crosses in a more isolated area but any little seaside towns in its path you would want to be getting out before it hits otherwise you could be endangering your life. I would hate to be a government trying to co-ordinate that. Everyone just have an action plan in you head if its heading your way especially if your on the southern side of it.

Hey Popeye,
If Yasi was to hit Bowen (for arguments sake) how far south would the storm surge effect?
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Hervey Bay, Whale Watching Capital of Australia and Gateway to Magestic Fraser Island

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#946426 - 31/01/2011 17:49 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - 29/01/11 - 3/2/11 - General Chat [Re: RWM's Daughter]
Stevo59 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/01/2009
Posts: 1037
Loc: Cairns
The Louisiade Archipelago off the tip of PNG is going to be hammered by storm force winds tomorrow on the northern flank of Yasi. I believe some people from the islands died in Cyclone Justin when passed by?
_________________________
"Some people are weather wise, but most are otherwise”. Benjamin Franklin.

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#946427 - 31/01/2011 17:50 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - 29/01/11 - 3/2/11 - General Chat [Re: ozlissa]
james1977 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2009
Posts: 2804
Loc: collingwood park
Originally Posted By: ozlissa

I tried to quote but failed.. Could whoever is talking about the one behind yasi, please post a link to that image plz.. ty

Also, we in the southeast of queensland have to remember that every 30 yrs or so we get cyclones down this far.. Wanda hit brisbane in 74.. so we are in the due zone.. it is possible for any one of these massive storms to make it this far.. due I think primarly to their strength.. we all had better have a plan I think...


I don't believe in places being due or over due for servere weather events, it depends on the atmospheric conditions and whether all the right ingredients are there.
When you here an event that's 1 in a 100 year event it means that the chances of it happening every summer is 1-100 odds.
_________________________
I hate winter

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#946428 - 31/01/2011 17:50 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - 29/01/11 - 3/2/11 - General Chat [Re: TC Poncho]
Dodger Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/03/2010
Posts: 181
Loc: Kuranda
Ok. Getting back to being nerdy.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shwvgms.html

This is really a good looking storm. Scary in the end of the world scales of things, but you have to admire nature sometimes. Look at the affect it is having on the high below it.
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Nice tree.
I have the power of instant knowledge.
You have the assisted ability to take out my house.
Shall we call it a draw?

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#946430 - 31/01/2011 17:50 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - 29/01/11 - 3/2/11 - General Chat [Re: Arafura]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5187
Loc: Diamond Valley
Originally Posted By: Arafura
Another question - I was under the impression that Sydney was safe from cyclones not due to latitude or SST but that the NSW coast runs NE to SW which is opposite the paths of winds at that latitude which also means that New Zealand is vulnerable. This was also explained to me as to why New York is vulnerable to hurricanes because the North American coast runs parrallel to the path of the winds at that latitude.

Was I led astray?


Generally no, however, one of the earlier model runs of GFS had a crossing over Brisbane for what is now Yasi and heading down the coast of NSW to Sydney. It depends on the steering flow and the intensity of the system. A highly unusual scenario but not out of the question. This is especially the case in this very active season.
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The original donut hole

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#946431 - 31/01/2011 17:51 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - 29/01/11 - 3/2/11 - General Chat [Re: Stevo59]
Timmeh! Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 49
Originally Posted By: Stevo59
The Louisiade Archipelago off the tip of PNG is going to be hammered by storm force winds tomorrow on the northern flank of Yasi. I believe some people from the islands died in Cyclone Justin when passed by?


Indeed, 26.

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#946432 - 31/01/2011 17:52 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - 29/01/11 - 3/2/11 - General Chat [Re: Dodger]
Vista Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/01/2007
Posts: 307
Loc: Kamerunga, Cairns
Just went to Bunnings at Smithfield. Staff told me that they sold so many generators this morning, they are getting a whole new truckload tomorrow. Every person either had torches, tape or other items in preparations. Good to see the community getting prepared for a change.

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#946434 - 31/01/2011 17:54 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - 29/01/11 - 3/2/11 - General Chat [Re: RoughDiamond]
Stevo59 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/01/2009
Posts: 1037
Loc: Cairns
Originally Posted By: RoughDiamond


The next cyclone to come our way.
_________________________
"Some people are weather wise, but most are otherwise”. Benjamin Franklin.

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#946436 - 31/01/2011 17:54 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - 29/01/11 - 3/2/11 - General Chat [Re: Dodger]
snowmad Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/06/2005
Posts: 879
Loc: Bowen
Open the MTSAT link and watch the loop carefully then slow and go through frame by frame using the buttons. Check out the images on the 2nd and 3rd shot looks like a screaming face and no it is not photoshop it is off real time sat image. http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmscol.html

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#946439 - 31/01/2011 17:56 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - 29/01/11 - 3/2/11 - General Chat [Re: BeknPaul]
Mishka Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 55
Loc: Emerald, Victoria - 300m asl
Originally Posted By: BeknPaul
"Yasi's Credentials Cloud mass 2,245 km wide"

From a post on CM..

Does anyone know if this is correct?



That's not possible.

It would make Yasi larger than the 1979 Super Typhoon Tip.

It was 2220km wide and the largest most powerful cyclone ever recorded on Earth.

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