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#948012 - 01/02/2011 04:54 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - 29/01/11 - 3/2/11 - General Chat [Re: wetfnq]
Mr_Billiam Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 21
Loc: Townsville
Originally Posted By: wetfnq
4bk
did you see the ridge to the south side ?
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shwvgms.html


Now I have. (Digression: I was on my phone, now I'm on my laptop, so I assign the blame on you if that 1.5 hrs was the extent of my sleep tonight!)

It'll be interesting to see how that ridge interacts - the track could change either way depending on the extent and speed of the steering change (not that I have any reason to doubt the JTWC's judgment on that)

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#948013 - 01/02/2011 04:54 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - 29/01/11 - 3/2/11 - General Chat [Re: wetfnq]
Topaz Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 15/03/2010
Posts: 16
Loc: Topaz
I am in Canberra. Should I get the first flight home to cairns in a few hours or leave it till tonight? When might they close the airport...does anyone know

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#948014 - 01/02/2011 04:57 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - 29/01/11 - 3/2/11 - General Chat [Re: Topaz]
wetfnq Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/12/2010
Posts: 326
Loc: trinity park q
im worse havent been to bed
read this
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (YASI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 875 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTER INTO THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, FUELED BY EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A SOLID DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 90 KNOTS
FROM MULTIPLE AGENCIES INCLUDING KNES, PHFO, NFFN, AND PGTW. TC 11P
IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
WEST- BECOMING SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE STR SHIFTS EASTWARD WITH THE
APPROACH OF A MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE WEST. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED A MESOSCALE
ANTICYCLONE ALOFT AND CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG AN AREA OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. IN VIEW OF THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, TC YASI
WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY, PEAKING AT 125 KNOTS BY TAU 36. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCEPTIONALLY CLOSE AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 11P IS FORECAST TO MAKE
LANDFALL JUST SOUTH OF CAIRNS AS A LARGE 100+ KNOT SYSTEM AFTER TAU
48 AND SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z AND 011500Z

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#948015 - 01/02/2011 04:58 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - 29/01/11 - 3/2/11 - General Chat [Re: Topaz]
Mr_Billiam Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 21
Loc: Townsville
I suspect most of the airports up north (ie. Cairns, Townsville and Mackay) *might* close after the last flight tonight, but I doubt they'll close earlier than that. Unless something changes, winds won't start picking up until mid-morning tomorrow. I don't imagine you'll have too much competition for flights from Canberra to sunny tropical Cairns…

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#948016 - 01/02/2011 04:59 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - 29/01/11 - 3/2/11 - General Chat [Re: Topaz]
wetfnq Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/12/2010
Posts: 326
Loc: trinity park q
Originally Posted By: Topaz
I am in Canberra. Should I get the first flight home to cairns in a few hours or leave it till tonight? When might they close the airport...does anyone know

its 1000 kms away moving @30 kms should leave you a fair window ,but ring the airline

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#948017 - 01/02/2011 05:00 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - 29/01/11 - 3/2/11 - General Chat [Re: wetfnq]
Topaz Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 15/03/2010
Posts: 16
Loc: Topaz
Thanks bbbk might get out at lunchtime

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#948018 - 01/02/2011 05:01 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - 29/01/11 - 3/2/11 - General Chat [Re: wetfnq]
wetfnq Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/12/2010
Posts: 326
Loc: trinity park q
Table 1 - Airport Cyclone Alert Stages.
Stage
When Initiated
1.
Initiated on announcement by the Bureau of Meteorology of a Cyclone Watch, ie winds above strong gale force 24-48 hours away.
2.
Initiated on announcement by the Bureau of Meteorology of a Cyclone Warning, ie winds above strong gale force within 24 hours.
3.
Cyclone Warning current. As a general guide, this stage will be declared when wind gusts greater than 100 km/h (54 kt) are 6-12 hours away.
Hourly monitoring of forecasts prior to declaring Stage 4.
4.
As a general guide, this stage will be declared when wind gusts greater than 100 km/h (54 kt) are 3-6 hours away.
5.
Strong Gale Force Winds have commenced (i.e. sustained 75 km/h (41 kt) with gusts to 100 km/h (54 kt)).
6.
Strong Gale Force Winds have passed, all clear not yet announced as Stage 5 may be re-declared.
7.
Local All Clear.
5
Cairns Airport Pty Ltd
4.
Notification of Cyclone Alert Stages.
4.1
Stages 1 and 2 will be automatically initiated on announcement of a cyclone watch or a cyclone warning respectively.
4.2
Stages 3 and 4 will be declared by CAPL’s Chief Executive Officer, in consultation and agreement with members of the Airport Cyclone Committee. The timing of these phases will depend on the proximity and severity of a cyclone.
4.3
At any time during Stages 1 to 4, the Bureau of Meteorology may issue an Airport Warning. Airport Warnings will be treated in accordance with individual company policy.
4.4
CAPL (via SMS and Email fax system) will advise airport tenants when Stages 1 to 4 are activated (see Appendix B for a list of airport tenants and others who will receive this advice).
4.5
There will be no formal notification of Stages 5 and 6 from CAPL to airport tenants. The Bureau of Meteorology will issue normal cyclone warnings through the media during these stages.
4.6
At Stage 7, CAPL will contact members of the Cyclone Committee by whatever means are available to convene a meeting to commence clean up and recommence airport operations as soon as possible.
5.
Stage 1
Note: In the following stages, the minimum and maximum times are to be used as a guide depending on the cyclone category - e.g. Category 1 uses minimum lead times whilst Category 3 and above use maximum lead times.
5.1
Initiated on an announcement by the Bureau of Meteorology of a Cyclone Watch, i.e. winds above strong gale force (75 km/h (41 kt) or greater) are 24-48 hours away.
5.2
Airport tenants should commence initial preparation for a cyclone and consider the following actions:

Conducting a review of company cyclone procedures

Securing or removing non-essential equipment from open areas

Checking emergency stores and equipment (fuel, generators, radios, medical supplies etc)

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#948019 - 01/02/2011 05:02 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - 29/01/11 - 3/2/11 - General Chat [Re: TC Poncho]
Blondie72 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/03/2010
Posts: 195
Loc: Between Marian and Mirani
They are saying still a cat 2 as it passes out into the Charters Towers area , would this be correct?

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#948020 - 01/02/2011 05:02 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - 29/01/11 - 3/2/11 - General Chat [Re: Eye Spy]
nthqlndr Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/03/2010
Posts: 561
Loc: Andergrove, Qld
That was me, Eye Spy. I had to get a few hours sleep & am just catching up on the posts. Thanks for that, appreciated. I'll keep my fingers crossed for you. And me, lol! I haven't seen my mum in Sydney for a lot of years & I've a feeling that after this is over I'm really going to want my mummy.
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#948021 - 01/02/2011 05:03 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - 29/01/11 - 3/2/11 - General Chat [Re: wetfnq]
wetfnq Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/12/2010
Posts: 326
Loc: trinity park q
Cairns Airport Pty Ltd
Address: Airport Avenue, Cairns Airport, Cairns QLD 4870

Postal: PO Box 57 Airport Administration Centre, Cairns Airport QLD 4870
Phone: + 61 7 4080 6703
Fax: + 61 7 4080 6704
Email: enquiries@cairnsairport.com.au

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#948022 - 01/02/2011 05:05 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - 29/01/11 - 3/2/11 - General Chat [Re: Blondie72]
wetfnq Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/12/2010
Posts: 326
Loc: trinity park q
Originally Posted By: Blondie72
They are saying still a cat 2 as it passes out into the Charters Towers area , would this be correct?

some models are proging it to go all the way to NT


Edited by wetfnq (01/02/2011 05:05)

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#948023 - 01/02/2011 05:05 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - 29/01/11 - 3/2/11 - General Chat [Re: wetfnq]
Topaz Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 15/03/2010
Posts: 16
Loc: Topaz
Thanks wetfnq. I'll call the airport.

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#948024 - 01/02/2011 05:06 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - 29/01/11 - 3/2/11 - General Chat [Re: Topaz]
wetfnq Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/12/2010
Posts: 326
Loc: trinity park q
good luck

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#948025 - 01/02/2011 05:08 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - 29/01/11 - 3/2/11 - General Chat [Re: wetfnq]
wetfnq Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/12/2010
Posts: 326
Loc: trinity park q

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#948026 - 01/02/2011 05:10 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - 29/01/11 - 3/2/11 - General Chat [Re: wetfnq]
wetfnq Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/12/2010
Posts: 326
Loc: trinity park q
the moisture is feeding back from exAnthony to that ridge

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#948027 - 01/02/2011 05:13 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - 29/01/11 - 3/2/11 - General Chat [Re: wetfnq]
wetfnq Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/12/2010
Posts: 326
Loc: trinity park q
the shear tendency is a bit clearer

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#948029 - 01/02/2011 05:15 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - 29/01/11 - 3/2/11 - General Chat [Re: wetfnq]
Mr_Billiam Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 21
Loc: Townsville
So (lacking the knowledge to read these graphics properly) is the ridge expected to weaken and allow Yasi to track SW, or will the ridge itself steer Yasi? There doesn't look to be anything coming to explicitly steer her towards the SW, just the ridge keeping her heading West for the moment and weakening (and perhaps the easterly part retreating south) and allowing her to move that way?

Edit: The shear is certainly looking good at this point as she approaches closer to the coast, where ever she decides to do so.


Edited by bbbbk (01/02/2011 05:16)

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#948030 - 01/02/2011 05:16 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - 29/01/11 - 3/2/11 - General Chat [Re: wetfnq]
Severely Tall Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/11/2006
Posts: 751
Loc: Melbourne, Victoria
This looks a doozie of a system, certainly not something to be trifled with. (Warning Personal Opinion, Do Not Panic) My biggest concern is if the ridge steers the TC a touch further north of course (last couple of forecast maps seem to be leading to slight shift north). With the storm surge of such a system Cairns is at real risk of a Katrina moment. Very large TC + extensive field of damaging winds generally will get a large surge as many have said, but this impacting on the Cairns area would be simply devasting (there are a number of reports into this risk, Cairns has topography very conducive to a dangerous situation). Fortunately at the moment they are on the north side of the impact which should mean the surge is not as bad, but they will probably still see some effect. Really feel sorry for people who will cop their second cyclone in under a week, just hoping the relatively fast steering doesn't allow her to get any more than 125 knots on JTWC warnings and actual wind field...with a mesoscale anticyclone providing the radial outflow its possible she could bomb. The storm surge as it is looks like presenting serious problems for the areas to the south of the eyewall impact given the size of the system.
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#948031 - 01/02/2011 05:17 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - 29/01/11 - 3/2/11 - General Chat [Re: wetfnq]
wetfnq Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/12/2010
Posts: 326
Loc: trinity park q
i think she will keep tracking west til she clears that small hump in the ridge at 155s then turn sw

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#948032 - 01/02/2011 05:21 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - 29/01/11 - 3/2/11 - General Chat [Re: Spiceman]
Rainygirl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/11/2007
Posts: 583
Loc: Mission Beach
Feeling very frightened in mission beach. frown


Edited by Rainygirl (01/02/2011 05:24)
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