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#949071 - 01/02/2011 14:31 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - 29/01/11 - 3/2/11 - General Chat [Re: kaylicious]
trenchdigger Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 27/12/2010
Posts: 26
Loc: Veradilla Qld
Hi. I have read a few posts now about people asking for where possible Yasi associated heavy rain might fall. People are specifically asking about rain not winds. I haven't seen any area specific repsonses. Is it too early to map, predict or guess which areas may be hit by the big rains that this event will bring?

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#949073 - 01/02/2011 14:32 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - 29/01/11 - 3/2/11 - General Chat [Re: Seventh Storm]
Greg Sorenson Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/11/2005
Posts: 3256
Loc: Canberra!
Originally Posted By: Seventh Storm
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
That's just frigging great. I feel sick in the stomach. 3 hours sleep and massive knots in my guts.




Having a close look at this tracking map it seems that once Yasi reaches Willis Island she is predicted to make an ever so slight swing towards the North. What would be the influence behind this slight shift in steering? I would have thought that now its heading WSW that it will continue to swing more around towards the south...


Some TCs tend to wobble a bit, and the current modelling is suggesting this to be so. This can be due to the variables and kinks so to speak in the ridging from the south, and other influences such as northern landforms and winds associated. A wobble doesn't take away from it's general direction though.
_________________________
Storm season is upon us... now let the fun begin

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#949075 - 01/02/2011 14:33 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - 29/01/11 - 3/2/11 - General Chat [Re: watcher12]
Reisan Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 30/01/2011
Posts: 4
Loc: Townsville, QLD.
Hey Guys,

I need to know if anyone can find a flood assessment map for Kelso, Townsville. We are right beside Ross River and the Dam, and every other part of the river is being advised to proceed with caution, but not the areas in Thuringowa, because they weren't covered by the Townsville City Council initial analasys.

Any help or info would be great, were just off Dunlop Street in Kelso.

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#949076 - 01/02/2011 14:34 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - 29/01/11 - 3/2/11 - General Chat [Re: Tempest]
Spiceman Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 02/06/2001
Posts: 781
Loc: Maroochydore, QLD
Originally Posted By: Tempest
Im not watching the eye, I'm watching the s.w quadrant.

The upper low near seq is starting to move southwest..

Water Vapour


and just watching the last few frames Yasi definately turning to the SW so we might see a change in the next threat map to between Cairns and Innisfail again.. I would advise everyone to keep an eye on the BOM threat maps, they have changed substantially from day one and look like they will change again...

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#949077 - 01/02/2011 14:34 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - 29/01/11 - 3/2/11 - General Chat [Re: watcher12]
raindownonme Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 27/02/2010
Posts: 10
Loc: Cannonvale
Originally Posted By: watcher12
I just sent an email note to premier's office saying they should be forcing airlines to help evacuate people.

If you agree, why not send one too? Can't hurt.


Virgin Blue has a flight departing Whitsunday Coast Airport today at 1800 for the bargin price of $279 (or thereabouts) thanks for making evacuation a cost affective option

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#949081 - 01/02/2011 14:38 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - 29/01/11 - 3/2/11 - General Chat [Re: trenchdigger]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18717
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: trenchdigger
Hi. I have read a few posts now about people asking for where possible Yasi associated heavy rain might fall. People are specifically asking about rain not winds. I haven't seen any area specific repsonses. Is it too early to map, predict or guess which areas may be hit by the big rains that this event will bring?





Heaviest rain should be on the sth western quadrant as it approaches the coast and then anywhere behind it as it heads inland. Tracks are open to change in the next 24 hours so it depends on movement. At this stage you'd be fairly safe to say the Whitsundays will get a deluge.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#949087 - 01/02/2011 14:39 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - 29/01/11 - 3/2/11 - General Chat [Re: 99wazza]
Spiceman Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 02/06/2001
Posts: 781
Loc: Maroochydore, QLD
Originally Posted By: 99wazza
Maybe because of the potential for such a large number of people to be affected, the BoM are just being cautious by predicting a landfall just north of Cairns. Even as early as a couple of hours ago, many of my friends in Cairns were being rather complacent because it was going to cross south of there. At least this way, there can be no excuse to say "but we were told it would cross south of here".
Just an opinion.


They won't just pick a spot because they are worried about what people are thinking in different towns, they will be basing their forecast on the most up to date information they have including Satelite and visual obs... they had it landing north of cairns because according to the way it was moving that's where it was headed... If it changes direction they will change the forecast... Quite simple really!!1

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#949088 - 01/02/2011 14:40 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - 29/01/11 - 3/2/11 - General Chat [Re: robyn74]
CivEngSean Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2008
Posts: 242
Loc: Indooroopilly
Originally Posted By: robyn74
please could anyone tell me if u home is cat 3 rated , will it have a good chance of being safe i know people are prity sure it will go south , i am hoping this is the case ,sorry to people south of cairns , but i have never been in a cyclone and have a disable child who cant handle any changes and this is definatly a big one sorry if i seem dumb just really worried


It depends when your house was built. Pre 1950 it was done pretty much without codes and at the descrection of the builder, or an engineer if you were lucky. Its only been since the 1960-70's that building codes were put into use after a series of disasters.

There are a few general rules to go by:
If your house is an old queenslander they will not be able to handle much more than a cat 3, a lucky few escape. If you have a newer brick home or queenslander which has cyclone bolts and is rated to the new building codes your chances for less damage increase as they are rated to Q100, Q500 winds depending on your engineer or strength requests.

Hopefully I got this right I'm going by memory atm. If you need more info just ask me smile

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#949090 - 01/02/2011 14:41 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - 29/01/11 - 3/2/11 - General Chat [Re: robyn74]
james1977 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2009
Posts: 2851
Loc: collingwood park
Originally Posted By: robyn74
please could anyone tell me if u home is cat 3 rated , will it have a good chance of being safe i know people are prity sure it will go south , i am hoping this is the case ,sorry to people south of cairns , but i have never been in a cyclone and have a disable child who cant handle any changes and this is definatly a big one sorry if i seem dumb just really worried


My advise to you is, if your unsure get out better to be safe than sorry.
_________________________
I hate winter

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#949091 - 01/02/2011 14:42 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - 29/01/11 - 3/2/11 - General Chat [Re: CivEngSean]
robyn74 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 27/01/2011
Posts: 37
Loc: mossman far north qld
it is a 8 month old brick vaneer with color bond roof

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#949095 - 01/02/2011 14:44 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - 29/01/11 - 3/2/11 - General Chat [Re: Reisan]
nthqlndr Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/03/2010
Posts: 563
Loc: Andergrove, Qld
Originally Posted By: Reisan
Hey Guys,

I need to know if anyone can find a flood assessment map for Kelso, Townsville. We are right beside Ross River and the Dam, and every other part of the river is being advised to proceed with caution, but not the areas in Thuringowa, because they weren't covered by the Townsville City Council initial analasys.

Any help or info would be great, were just off Dunlop Street in Kelso.

http://www.police.qld.gov.au/forms/qldfloods/default.html Try this, might help.
_________________________
It is best to read the weather forecast before praying for rain. --- Mark Twain

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#949101 - 01/02/2011 14:50 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - 29/01/11 - 3/2/11 - General Chat [Re: Kat_]
Greg Sorenson Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/11/2005
Posts: 3256
Loc: Canberra!
Originally Posted By: Kat_
re:http://forecasts.bsch.au.com/stormcast?streamlinesmain=®ion=qld&datem=aest&date=2011020109&gribdate=2011013118&chart=s925&loop=no&start=&=#stormcast

I'm not understanding the colour pattern here, (I don't have much weather knowledge, so I do read these feeds for information), Could someone direct me to a legend on this site for the colour pattern and numbers data please?

cheers


Just though i'd clear up the BSCH map. You were looking on the wind speed and shear section of their GFS modelling. The different colours represent the level of shear present, the higher the number, in this case represented as different colours, the higher the winds in knots. The arrows show the direction of the shear. Remember though, this only represents sustained shear, and doesn't take into account gusts which can be easily 20% higher. The numbers ranging from SFC to 300 represents 'geopotential heights' in the troposphere. So 'SFC' is surface winds, 850 is roughly 1500m (here's a link to better describe how this height works: http://www.blackheathweather.com/heights.html ) 700 the mids, 500 to 300 are the upper levels winds, which are usually considered to be the steering winds, and can be the directional driver for weather systems. iIf the upper level winds are esp strong, then potentially t'storms can drag some of these winds down to the surface, which can obviously happen in TC with low topped supercells imbedded into the eye wall. This is where the isolated and extreme gusts can occur. I hope that this explains things a little better.

I would say however for this event, you might be better guided by the BOM, as they are using ACCESS, which is a different modelling system and perhaps a better guide. People are open to disagree of course.
_________________________
Storm season is upon us... now let the fun begin

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#949102 - 01/02/2011 14:50 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - 29/01/11 - 3/2/11 - General Chat [Re: Reisan]
Ginger. Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 2
Loc: Townsville, QLD
I also remember seeing some of Kelso in some of the Bohle Plains maps, but I'm not sure. They're on the council website. It took me forever to find the Bohle P ones!
_________________________
Environmental Science Degree + Emergency Management Qualifications = Still no job prospects frown

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#949104 - 01/02/2011 14:51 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - 29/01/11 - 3/2/11 - General Chat [Re: nthqlndr]
CivEngSean Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2008
Posts: 242
Loc: Indooroopilly
I just did a quick search through my codes... These are the winds speeds buildings are designed to now.

from AS1170.2
if your above Bundy and on the coast the design winds are:
V50-52m/s
V100-56m/s
V500-66m/s
V1000-70m/s

These will change depending on how exposed your house is, your elevation, shape of your house and its angle.

The V1000 wind speed is 250km/h so most houses are NOT designed to this.

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#949109 - 01/02/2011 14:54 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - 29/01/11 - 3/2/11 - General Chat [Re: nthqlndr]
LightningBoltz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/12/2010
Posts: 96
Loc: Proserpine
The latest Mtsat http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmscol.html shows alot more of a wsw movement then it has for the last few days a few more frames might just show it as a wobble, But to me it seems like a change in direction. The next few Bom updates might be interesting in the change of crossing position. There has also been a few posts on the tech tread about a more wsw movement. I think everyone in the warning areas should continue there preparations even tho the last bom map showed a more north crossing.

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#949111 - 01/02/2011 14:54 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - 29/01/11 - 3/2/11 - General Chat [Re: LightningBoltz]
cyclonecece Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/01/2007
Posts: 7823
Loc: Brandon.. QLD..EX Karratha
IDQP0005
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 6
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 1:52pm EST on Tuesday the 1st of February 2011

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Cooktown to Sarina.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Lockhart River to Cooktown and
Sarina to Yeppoon and for the northern tropical interior.

At 1:00 pm EST Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi, Category 3 was estimated to be
1120 kilometres east northeast of Cairns and 1110 kilometres east northeast of
Townsville
moving west at 34 kilometres per hour.

YASI IS A LARGE AND POWERFUL TROPICAL CYCLONE AND POSES A SERIOUS THREAT TO
NORTH QUEENSLAND COMMUNITIES

The cyclone is expected to slowly intensify overnight as it moves westwards over
the Coral Sea.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE YASI, CATEGORY 3 is expected to turn on a more
west-southwesterly direction in the next 12 hours.

DAMAGING winds with gusts to 90 km/hr are expected to develop on the islands
during Wednesday morning, then extend onto the coast during the day, and further
inland across southern Cape York Peninsula and north of Charters Towers
overnight.

Between Cooktown and Townsville these winds will become DESTRUCTIVE with gusts
in excess of 125km/hr late Wednesday afternoon.

As the centre approaches the coast sea levels will rise above the normal tide
with damaging waves and flooding of low lying areas near the shoreline.

Flooding rains will develop from Cooktown to Sarina during Wednesday afternoon
and then extend inland overnight.


People between Cooktown and Sarina should immediately commence or continue
preparations, especially securing boats and property [using available daylight
hours/before nightfall].
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au]
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage].

People between Lockhart River and Cooktown and between Sarina and Yeppoon, and
southern Cape York Peninsula and inland north of Charters Towers should consider
what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au]
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage].

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi at 1:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 14.2 degrees South 155.8 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west at 34 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 220 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING
.Severity category........ 3
.Central pressure......... 960 hectoPascals


Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued by 5:00 pm EST Tuesday 01 February.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

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#949112 - 01/02/2011 14:54 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - 29/01/11 - 3/2/11 - General Chat [Re: LightningBoltz]
camtsv Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/03/2010
Posts: 270
Loc: Townsville/ Gulliver
still looks generally west to me

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#949114 - 01/02/2011 14:55 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - 29/01/11 - 3/2/11 - General Chat [Re: watcher12]
Frangipani Fran Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 40
Loc: Toowoomba
Originally Posted By: watcher12
I just sent an email note to premier's office saying they should be forcing airlines to help evacuate people.

If you agree, why not send one too? Can't hurt.


Heard that patients at Cairns Base hospital are being evacuated to Brisbane

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#949115 - 01/02/2011 14:55 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - 29/01/11 - 3/2/11 - General Chat [Re: CivEngSean]
robyn74 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 27/01/2011
Posts: 37
Loc: mossman far north qld
on the plan i found wind -c1 floorplan ok it stands for w41 meters per second what ever that means


Edited by robyn74 (01/02/2011 15:01)

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#949120 - 01/02/2011 14:58 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - 29/01/11 - 3/2/11 - General Chat [Re: robyn74]
CivEngSean Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2008
Posts: 242
Loc: Indooroopilly
Originally Posted By: robyn74
on the plan i found wind -c1 floorplan


Im fairly sure that C1 corresponds to the new C category, which is what I just quoted. So ^^^ that is what your house is rated to.

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