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#942166 - 29/01/2011 23:17 Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - Technical Discussion Only
Wet Wet Wet Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2008
Posts: 2332
Loc: Mackay, Qld
So as we already know, Queensland is expected to be hit by 2 cyclones only a few days apart. Anthony is currently hovering in the Central Coral Sea and forecast to make landfall near Townsville early Monday morning, with the second Tropical Low currently developing to the east of Vanuatu:




Here’s the latest ECMWF run with the second cyclone forecast to make landfall at Ayr:




Forecast Winds for the potential cyclone (based on ECMWF):




And the cyclone tracking map issued by Vanuatu:



Extended Outlook:
Forecast for Wednesday
Showers and thunderstorms will continue across most of the state as the atmosphere remains moist and unstable. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase to thundery rain areas late in the day about the east coast and adjacent inland between about Cooktown and Bundaberg with strong to possibly gale force winds developing.

Outlook for Thursday, Friday and Saturday
Showers and thunderstorms should continue through the tropics and also over much of the interior due to a moist, unstable airflow. Instability should also increase over southeastern Queensland with showers and possible isolated thunderstorms expected. There is some potential for a new low or tropical cyclone to deepen over the Coral Sea during this outlook period which may affect tropical Queensland during Thursday. This system may then move southwest across the interior of the state during the remainder of the outlook period taking its associated rain areas with it. This situation will continue to be monitored and warnings issued as necessary.


Reasonably high tides forecasted at the time of landfall as well with a 5.71m tide in Mackay on Thursday morning.

Buckle up for a wild ride! bounce


Edited by Raindammit (01/02/2011 06:38)
Edit Reason: Changed title
_________________________
Mackay Weather Chasers

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#942541 - 30/01/2011 04:22 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - Technical Discussion Only [Re: Wet Wet Wet]
Wet Wet Wet Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2008
Posts: 2332
Loc: Mackay, Qld
Issued at Jan 29 1700UTC / Jan 30 3:00am EST:

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
170 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.3S 173.2E TO 15.4S 166.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 291630Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.3S 172.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.3S
172.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.3S 172.4E, APPROXIMATELY 315 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 291408Z AMSU IMAGE INDICATE INCREASING CONSOLIDATION OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. A 291031Z ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTED
A SYMMETRIC, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
25-30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS, THE LLCC HAS STRENGTHENED AND BECOME WELL-DEFINED. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER AN
EXTENSION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WITH WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. OVERALL, THE OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED WITH CONTINUED GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO A STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF FIJI. NUMERICAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO PREDICT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-
48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
DUE TO THE IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
301700Z.//





Lastest ASCAT:



Edited by Raindammit (31/01/2011 18:15)
Edit Reason: Changed title
_________________________
Mackay Weather Chasers

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#942640 - 30/01/2011 07:48 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - Technical Discussion Only [Re: Wet Wet Wet]
FNQ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/05/2007
Posts: 3029
Loc: Clifton Beach, Cairns - Queens...
JYWC Reissued at 291730

As area now upgraded to Good for potential development of TC

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.3S
172.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.3S 172.4E, APPROXIMATELY 315 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 291408Z AMSU IMAGE INDICATE INCREASING CONSOLIDATION OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. A 291031Z ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTED
A SYMMETRIC, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
25-30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS, THE LLCC HAS STRENGTHENED AND BECOME WELL-DEFINED. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER AN
EXTENSION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WITH WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. OVERALL, THE OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED WITH CONTINUED GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO A STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF FIJI. NUMERICAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO PREDICT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-
48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
DUE TO THE IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.

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#942921 - 30/01/2011 10:20 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - Technical Discussion Only [Re: FNQ]
Green n Lumpy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/11/2008
Posts: 864
Loc: Cardwell QLD
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 29/2022 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD09F CENTRE 1003HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3S
171.3E AT 291800 UTC. TD09F MOVING WEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS. POSITION
POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 29 DEGREE CELCIUS.

ORGANISATION IMPROVED SLIGHTLY PAST 12 HOURS. CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES ALONG A
SURFACE TROUGH AND UNDER 250HPA RIDGE AXIS IN A WEAK SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 500HPA. SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO BE STEERED WESTWARDS MAINLY BY THE DEEP LAYER MEAN EASTERLIES.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE GRADUALLY DEVELOPING THE DEPRESSION AND MAINTAINING
A WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD 09F WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 300230 UTC.

http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/20032.txt

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#942970 - 30/01/2011 10:50 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - Technical Discussion Only [Re: Green n Lumpy]
FNQ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/05/2007
Posts: 3029
Loc: Clifton Beach, Cairns - Queens...
Advisory Number 2 on a Tropical Low issued by the Vanuatu Meteorological Service, Port Vila
at 8:04am VUT Sunday 30 January 2011.

At 5:00am local time today, a tropical low (1001 hPa) was located near 14.3S 171.0E,
letter K, number 4 of the Vanuatu Tropical Cyclone Tracking Map. This is about 320 KM
east northeast of Maewo. The system is moving west southwest at 41 KM/HR. The potential
for the system to intensify into a Tropical Cyclone as well as move to the central or
northern parts of Vanuatu is the next 24 to 48 hours is moderate to high.

Forecast Positions
Date and Time Position Intensity
+06 hours (11am, 30 Jan) 14.3S, 170.6E 25 KTS (45 KM/HR)
+12 hours (5pm, 30 Jan) 14.2S, 169.9E 25 KTS (45 KM/HR)
+18 hours (11pm, 30 Jan) 14.2S, 169.2E 40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+24 hours (5am, 31 Jan) 14.1S, 168.2E 40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+36 hours (5pm, 31 Jan) 13.9S, 166.0E 40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+48 hours (5am, 1 Feb) 14.0S, 163.8E 40 KTS (75 KM/HR)

Heavy rainfall is forecast to affect northern and central Vanuatu later
today. Seas are rough over the central, channel and southern waters, and a marine
strong wind warning has been issued for these areas. Seas will become very rough
with heavy swells later today. The National Disaster Management Office (NDMO) has
advised that Blue Alert is now current for Torba, Sanma, Penama and Malampa provinces.
For action on this Alert, call the National Disaster Management office (NDMO) on
telephone +678 24686 or +678 7771188.

The Vanuatu Meteorological Service will issue the next advisory on the system at
12:00pm today or earlier if the situation changes. People over Torba, Sanma, Penama and
Malampa Provinces, including Shefa are advised to listen to Radio outlets for the
latest information on this system.

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#942979 - 30/01/2011 10:59 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - Technical Discussion Only [Re: FNQ]
Hinezy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/06/2007
Posts: 1370
Loc: Red Hill SE QLD
Just a little off topic but probably useful in this context..

I find this website very handy and useful in quickly comparing the different up to date model runs. (EC, GFS, CMC, JMA etc..)

For example here is CMC's take on our developing Fiji low which puts a crossing somewhere near Mackay.

CMC Latest Run
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Facebook: 'South Brisbane Storms'
www.southbrisbanestorms.com

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#943164 - 30/01/2011 12:36 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - Technical Discussion Only [Re: Hinezy]
Scottie A Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2009
Posts: 2050
Loc: Spring Mountain, Greenbank
Starting to look quite like an increasingly angry fella, latest MTSAT starting to show a clearly defined LLCC. Sure is a big system!!

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http://www.youtube.com/user/MrScottieA

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#943172 - 30/01/2011 12:40 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - Technical Discussion Only [Re: Scottie A]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 15024
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Yasi is going to be a big boy. Have to say that is the best looking tropical low I have ever seen. Very impressive upper divergence to the south side, excellent environment all round, should be perfect for intensification at a steady rate with pretty swift westward steering.

TS cool


Edited by Thunderstruck (30/01/2011 12:41)

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#943214 - 30/01/2011 13:00 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - Technical Discussion Only [Re: Thunderstruck]
FNQ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/05/2007
Posts: 3029
Loc: Clifton Beach, Cairns - Queens...
Advisory Number 3 on a Tropical Low issued by the Vanuatu Meteorological Service, Port Vila
at 12:23pm VUT Sunday 30 January 2011.

At 11:00am local time today, a tropical low (1001 hPa) was located near 13.6S 170.4E,
letter J, number 3 of the Vanuatu Tropical Cyclone Tracking Map. This is about 295 KM
northeast of Maewo. The system is moving northwest at 17 KM/HR. The potential
for the system to intensify into a Tropical Cyclone as well as move to the central or
northern parts of Vanuatu is the next 24 to 48 hours is moderate to high.

Forecast Positions
Date and Time Position Intensity
+06 hours (5pm, 30 Jan) 13.1S, 169.3E 25 KTS (45 KM/HR)
+12 hours (11pm, 30 Jan) 13.0S, 168.0E 25 KTS (45 KM/HR)
+18 hours (5am, 31 Jan) 12.9S, 166.8E 40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+24 hours (11am, 31 Jan) 12.9S, 165.2E 40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+36 hours (11pm, 31 Jan) 12.8S, 161.9E 50 KTS (95 KM/HR)
+48 hours (11am, 1 Feb) 13.0S, 158.6E 50 KTS (95 KM/HR)

Heavy rainfall is forecast to affect northern and central Vanuatu later
today. Seas are rough over the central, channel and southern waters, and a marine
strong wind warning has been issued for these areas. Seas will become very rough
with heavy swells later today. The National Disaster Management Office (NDMO) has
advised that Blue Alert is now current for Torba, Sanma, Penama and Malampa provinces.
For action on this Alert, call the National Disaster Management office (NDMO) on
telephone +678 24686 or +678 7771188.

The Vanuatu Meteorological Service will issue the next advisory on the system at
6:00pm today or earlier if the situation changes. People over Torba, Sanma, Penama and
Malampa Provinces, including Shefa are advised to listen to Radio outlets for the
latest information on this system.

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#943219 - 30/01/2011 13:04 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - Technical Discussion Only [Re: FNQ]
FNQ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/05/2007
Posts: 3029
Loc: Clifton Beach, Cairns - Queens...
Vanuatu Track Map has it being a cat 2 by 1000 EST on 01022011;
Forecast Location for it to be a cat 2: 13 degrees S and 160 degrees E .

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#943402 - 30/01/2011 14:34 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - Technical Discussion Only [Re: FNQ]
mattincairns Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/11/2007
Posts: 403
Loc: Cairns


WTPS31 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/291651Z JAN 11//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 13.2S 170.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S 170.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 12.6S 168.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 12.4S 165.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 12.4S 162.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 13.1S 158.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 15.3S 152.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 18.0S 147.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 21.3S 142.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 13.1S 169.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A RAPIDLY-CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-
DEFINED CENTER. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY IS UNAVAILABLE, HOWEVER, A
291814Z CORIOLIS 36H IMAGE ALSO SUPPORTED THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT AND
DEPICTED MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDING AND A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE. A 292139Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWED 30-35 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE
SIGNATURE AS WELL AS THE CORRESPONDING DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS
FROM PGTW AND PHFO. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS
LOCATED UNDER AN ANTICYCLONE WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. TC
11P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 THEN TURN WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE LATER TAUS. THE STR IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT WILL SHIFT EAST AND RE-
ORIENT AS A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER CENTRAL
AUSTRALIA AFTER TAU 72. THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS LIMITED BUT
IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THEREFORE THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE
TRACK. THE ECMWF TRACKER IS UNAVAILABLE BUT THE 29/12Z MODEL FIELDS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS FORECAST TRACK
IS BASED LARGELY ON THE CONSENSUS. BASED ON THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE RECENT INTENSIFICATION TREND,
TC 11P IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A 20-25 KNOT RATE PER DAY THROUGH
TAU 72 AND AT A SLOWER RATE UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL NEAR TAU 96. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO PEAK HIGHER THAN 110 KNOTS AND MAKE
LANDFALL AS A VERY STRONG, LARGE SYSTEM. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 291651Z JAN 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 291700). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z AND 310300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (ANTHONY) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

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#943448 - 30/01/2011 14:51 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - Technical Discussion Only [Re: mattincairns]
opplevelse Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/08/2006
Posts: 735
Loc: Christiania, slightly east of ...
This one looks very very nasty indeed. lots of time to develop and lots of momentum. A big area of relative3ly low shear is sitting in Anthony's wake for this one. SST's are not incredible (~27-29C mark) but enough.
_________________________
"Science is a lot like sex ... sometimes something useful comes out, but that's not the reason we do it." - Richard Feynman

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#943509 - 30/01/2011 15:10 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - Technical Discussion Only [Re: opplevelse]
Wet Wet Wet Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2008
Posts: 2332
Loc: Mackay, Qld
_________________________
Mackay Weather Chasers

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#943677 - 30/01/2011 16:20 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - Technical Discussion Only [Re: Wet Wet Wet]
opplevelse Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/08/2006
Posts: 735
Loc: Christiania, slightly east of ...
Ge she is developing fast and big, surely close to naming!
Compare the size of this system to little Anthony in the full disk image


JTWC has 110kt sustained and 135kt gusts, that puts this one firmly in the Cat 4 range and possibly pushing Cat 5!
_________________________
"Science is a lot like sex ... sometimes something useful comes out, but that's not the reason we do it." - Richard Feynman

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#943737 - 30/01/2011 16:44 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - Technical Discussion Only [Re: opplevelse]
opplevelse Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/08/2006
Posts: 735
Loc: Christiania, slightly east of ...
She has been named TC Yasi- Mods please change the title of this thread.


Edited by opplevelse (30/01/2011 16:44)
Edit Reason: Mods did it while I was typing! LOL
_________________________
"Science is a lot like sex ... sometimes something useful comes out, but that's not the reason we do it." - Richard Feynman

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#944115 - 30/01/2011 18:46 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - Technical Discussion Only [Re: opplevelse]
Wet Wet Wet Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2008
Posts: 2332
Loc: Mackay, Qld
Queensland State Forecast & Extended Outlook:

Issued at 4:15 pm EST on Sunday 30 January 2011

A Cyclone Warning is current for coastal and island communities from Cardwell to Sarina. A Strong Wind Warning is current for remaining coastal waters between Innisfail and Burnett Heads. A flood warning is current for the Balonne River. A flood warning is current for coastal rivers and streams between Townsville and Sarina and adjacent inland catchments.

Weather Situation
A weak monsoon trough extends from Torres Strait to Tropical Cyclone Anthony over the western Coral Sea. A high over the Tasman Sea extends a firm ridge along the east Queensland coast. Tropical Cyclone Yasi has been named near Vanuatu in the eastern Coral Sea and is likely to affect the Queensland coast from Wednesday and the adjacent interior from Thursday through to the weekend. This situation will be closely monitored and warnings issued as necessary during the week.

Forecast for the rest of Sunday
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the tropics and far north-western Queensland, increasing to squally rain and thunderstorms about the central and southern tropical coast and adjacent inland late in the day and overnight with moderate to heavy falls. Scattered showers about the remaining east coast, tending isolated over the adjacent inland and the far southeast. Moderate to locally fresh SE to NE winds, strong and gusty about the tropical coast and reaching gale to storm force about the central and southern tropical coast in the evening and overnight.

Forecast for Monday
Tropical Cyclone Anthony is expected to cross the Burdekin Coast south of Ayr close to midnight. Please refer to the latest products from the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre for the latest information. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected over the far northern tropics. Heavier rain areas and thunderstorms associated with the cyclone are expected elsewhere along the southern tropical and central coasts, and should also extend inland into the tropical and central interior. Cloud should increase over western Queensland with patchy light rain and showers developing later in the day. Mostly fine conditions in the southeast with only isolated showers expected. Tropical Cyclone Yasi is expected to be moving steadily westwards.

Forecast for Tuesday
The remnant of cyclone Anthony is expected to have weakened to a deep low over the central interior, moving towards the southwest of the state. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected over the northern tropics and central districts in the wake of the system, increasing to areas of rain and isolated thunderstorms over the southwest. Isolated showers over southeast districts, scattered along the coast with possible thunderstorms over inland parts. Isolated showers and thunderstorms over the northwest. Tropical Cyclone Yasi is expected to be moving west over the central Coral Sea region.

Forecast for Wednesday
Showers and thunderstorms will continue across most of the state as the atmosphere remains moist and unstable. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase to thundery rain areas during the day about the east coast and adjacent inland between about Cooktown and Bundaberg with strong to possibly gale force winds developing due to the approach of Tropical Cyclone Yasi.

Forecast for Thursday
Tropical Cyclone Yasi is likely to make landfall on the Queensland east coast as a large and strong system. The most likely area of crossing is again the tropical coast although the potential exists for a crossing further north or south. Storm to hurricane force winds and very heavy rainfall are likely to accompany the passage of Tropical Cyclone Yasi, and extend inland during the day to the adjacent interior. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms persisting over the west of the state. Scattered showers about the southeast and isolated showers over the southern interior.

Outlook for Friday, Saturday and Sunday
Tropical Cyclone Yasi should continue to move west across the state, slowly weakening and reaching the western border over the weekend. Gale force winds and heavy rains will accompany the system. Showers and thunderstorms should continue elsewhere through the tropics and the interior due to the moist, unstable airflow. Scattered showers will persist over southeast Queensland.

The next routine forecast will be issued at 4:45 am EST Monday.
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Mackay Weather Chasers

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#944232 - 30/01/2011 19:27 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - Technical Discussion Only [Re: Wet Wet Wet]
Wet Wet Wet Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2008
Posts: 2332
Loc: Mackay, Qld
Latest ECMWF forecast has Yasi making landfall directly over Home Hill (Half way between Bowen and Townsville):

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Mackay Weather Chasers

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#944258 - 30/01/2011 19:36 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - Technical Discussion Only [Re: Wet Wet Wet]
H'Bay Qld Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/01/2011
Posts: 136
Originally Posted By: Wet Wet Wet


My God that this is a monster. The area it covers is enormous!
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Hervey Bay, Whale Watching Capital of Australia and Gateway to Magestic Fraser Island

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#944265 - 30/01/2011 19:39 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - Technical Discussion Only [Re: Wet Wet Wet]
opplevelse Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/08/2006
Posts: 735
Loc: Christiania, slightly east of ...
Still fairly disorganised, but bloody massive and down to 993hPa already. Yasi is already creating her own low shear environment, but could be affected slightly as it passes over the islands near Vanuatu. Once it has cleared them it should intensify fairly rapidly if it maintains its own low shear environemnt.



Most of the dynamical models have it crossing further south than the JTWC map.
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"Science is a lot like sex ... sometimes something useful comes out, but that's not the reason we do it." - Richard Feynman

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#944280 - 30/01/2011 19:47 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - Technical Discussion Only [Re: H'Bay Qld]
opplevelse Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/08/2006
Posts: 735
Loc: Christiania, slightly east of ...
Originally Posted By: H'Bay Qld
Originally Posted By: Wet Wet Wet


My God that this is a monster. The area it covers is enormous!
It is still a baby so will probably consolidate over the enxt few days as it gets itself more organised, but yes, it does look huge! Often the smallest storms pack the biggest punches, as they are more tightly "wound up" for want of a better term.
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"Science is a lot like sex ... sometimes something useful comes out, but that's not the reason we do it." - Richard Feynman

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