Page 16 of 35 < 1 2 ... 14 15 16 17 18 ... 34 35 >
Topic Options
#998608 - 02/07/2011 16:25 Re: Aus 2011 Snow Season [Re: GrizzlyBear]
Fiona Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/09/2009
Posts: 126
Loc: Delegate, S/T NSW
Gee we've had some burst pipes around town today! At 7pm last night it was -7 and by 3am it was -10! It's the second time this week that it's been -10.. Brrrr!!!

Top
#998609 - 02/07/2011 16:29 Re: Aus 2011 Snow Season [Re: GrizzlyBear]
snowmad Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/06/2005
Posts: 832
Loc: Mt Isa
I do like the look of this afternoon update. Gfs EC both sticking with good cold change. Each run seems to be on the improve hopefully no dreaded downgrades. We are getting close to the magic 72 hr window and still looks the goods. I can see a CT snow thread soon also for what could pan out to be a very snowy couple of days fingers and toes are crossed.

Top
#998622 - 02/07/2011 18:27 Re: Aus 2011 Snow Season [Re: snowmad]
GrizzlyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2011
Posts: 2359
Loc: Yetholme [1180m] Central Table...
Fiona, that is amazingly cold down there, up here on the high parts of the CT's have not even had a frost since last Sunday, last night was particularly warm.

Still a bit unclear how next week will pan out, EC has thrown another spanner in the works by a big upgrade at 120h for Thursday morning. Either way it seems to be looking better with every run.

Top
#998663 - 02/07/2011 21:39 Re: Aus 2011 Snow Season [Re: GrizzlyBear]
Laurier Williams Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2001
Posts: 2192
Loc: Millthorpe, 970m, Central W NS...
Just quickly looked at the GFS diagnostics for the 06z run, and they have light snow beginning on the OP early Tuesday morning. Haven't worked out the mechanics of that yet, but that's what they say. On current runs, precipitation amounts on the CT are pretty small.
_________________________
Caution: Any items linked to in this post may change and become irrelevant or expire over time. Use good meteorological practice and ALWAYS check date and time on charts before using them.

Top
#998703 - 03/07/2011 07:16 Re: Aus 2011 Snow Season [Re: Laurier Williams]
GrizzlyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2011
Posts: 2359
Loc: Yetholme [1180m] Central Table...
Models have now really come into line quite nicely, lining up the strongest and coldest trough for 10pm Wednesday, the snowfall for the CT's will be Wednesday night into Thursday morning, 5-10cm settling is a near certainty now down to 1000m in all the usual places on the CT's. BM could well get a light settling of a few cm also. Thursday will be the coldest day next week with temps barely above zero.

I was not the first one to pick the snow for next week first so the honors to start the thread should go to someone else perhaps Laurier. Still would not be a bad idea to have a "snow CT" thread since we do tend to concentrate on the CT's in our discussions.

Top
#998708 - 03/07/2011 08:01 Re: Aus 2011 Snow Season [Re: GrizzlyBear]
aslaws Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/05/2002
Posts: 1751
Loc: Narrow Neck Rd, Katoomba 1020m...
just start a thread PeterDuke you will do a better synopsis than me. Looking increasingly cold on the OCF for next week, just need the moisture to make it this far east.

Top
#998711 - 03/07/2011 08:25 Re: Aus 2011 Snow Season [Re: aslaws]
Blizzard Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 31/03/2001
Posts: 10323
Loc: Blue Mountains
Certainly a reasonable chance aslaws of some white gold, although I'd be at Blackheath or Mt Vic for the best chance of some settling. Tot tots are fine for us and uppers are nice and cold. 700hPa RH is reasonable too. The OP, Sunny Corner, Milthorpe etc will do better out of this one. On paper, anyway.

Its dependent on how it evolves in real-time. If those cold 850hPa temps move through as the cold 500hPa temps linger, we could get lucky. If GFS is right with those 850hPa temps on Thursday, any snow that does fall might hang around a bit.

That's the fun thing, watching it evolve in real-time. The last event was different to what the models were showing as the frontal band approached, so lets see what happens.

I'm fairly confident of light snow showers in the BM above 1050M, at the moment.
_________________________
BoM Storm Spotter, snow chaser, webmaster for www.blackheathweather.com

Top
#998712 - 03/07/2011 08:57 Re: Aus 2011 Snow Season [Re: Blizzard]
aslaws Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/05/2002
Posts: 1751
Loc: Narrow Neck Rd, Katoomba 1020m...
yeah , lots of mystery & surprises to come as per usual Blizz. Nice wintry week coming up & not long now until the cold air hits. Will be making the most of this relatively mild day today in the garden.

Top
#998715 - 03/07/2011 09:22 Re: Aus 2011 Snow Season [Re: aslaws]
petethemoskeet Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/08/2003
Posts: 1091
Loc: bribie island
I'm very happy that at long last we are getting non descript fronts developing and actually strengthening before they reach us.Makes a change from the last few winters and IMO i can see this
happening for the rest of winter.

Top
#999064 - 04/07/2011 17:53 Re: Aus 2011 Snow Season [Re: petethemoskeet]
Dirk Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 03/07/2011
Posts: 13
This is all happening at the right time for me, we're going for a family trip to Thredbo from the 17th to the 22nd. Can't wait!!!

Top
#1000095 - 09/07/2011 08:22 Re: Aus 2011 Snow Season [Re: Dirk]
Blizzard Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 31/03/2001
Posts: 10323
Loc: Blue Mountains
Great to see the ski fields doing well. No strong, unstable, snow bearing fronts of note beyond the ski fields though. That's strange for July. A very benign looking setup for quite a long time it seems, in this regard.
_________________________
BoM Storm Spotter, snow chaser, webmaster for www.blackheathweather.com

Top
#1000097 - 09/07/2011 08:33 Re: Aus 2011 Snow Season [Re: Blizzard]
Snowflurries Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/03/2010
Posts: 72
Loc: Gold Coast - Queensland
Hi Blizz,
frown yes nothing i can see either. Still no snow for Guyra. I do hope for a chase.
http://www.weatheronline.co.nz/cgi-bin/e...E=-&WMO=&ZOOM=0

Top
#1000132 - 09/07/2011 10:55 Re: Aus 2011 Snow Season [Re: Snowflurries]
kizz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/02/2002
Posts: 1413
Loc: Beacon Hill, Sydney 152m asl
Given all the winter action and cold nights I decided to check the daily summary for Charlotte Pass. What a joke that is. Missing data and temps still rounded to the half degree. Completely useless. FAIL.
Get an AWS up there - it's one of the coldest places on the continent!

Top
#1000167 - 09/07/2011 16:44 Re: Aus 2011 Snow Season [Re: kizz]
Blizzard Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 31/03/2001
Posts: 10323
Loc: Blue Mountains
Hang in their Snowflurries, I would be very surprised if you got nothing this winter. Maybe late July and into August will give you a good outcome.
_________________________
BoM Storm Spotter, snow chaser, webmaster for www.blackheathweather.com

Top
#1000176 - 09/07/2011 17:39 Re: Aus 2011 Snow Season [Re: Blizzard]
DrizzlyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2008
Posts: 3807
Loc: Southern Sydney
Looks like another mild SE setup for the end of next week with rain on the coast. Could well be a snowless July for the CTs and NTs.

Top
#1000264 - 10/07/2011 10:38 Re: Aus 2011 Snow Season [Re: DrizzlyBear]
Snow Gypsy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/05/2008
Posts: 311
Loc: Guyra, Northern Tablelands, 13...
It "looked like" snow here earlier this morning. Huuuuge, heavy frost with clouds that would have dropped snow if they could have!! Just no moisture around.
Now sunny with clear blue sky but temp only 2.2C with wind chill of -2C.

Top
#1000310 - 10/07/2011 15:28 Re: Aus 2011 Snow Season [Re: DrizzlyBear]
GrizzlyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2011
Posts: 2359
Loc: Yetholme [1180m] Central Table...
Originally Posted By: snow4sydney
Looks like another mild SE setup for the end of next week with rain on the coast. Could well be a snowless July for the CTs and NTs.


I was hoping that SE wind and coastal showers would not eventuate this time, but seems likely now I must admit. Would have rather seen some sunny mid winter weather instead, but the highs are always going too far south. Certainly cannot see any snow for the CT's (or NT's) in the foreseeable future, so a good chance now there will be non in July yet again. The current weather pattern has a lot of similarity to early spring with the classic September strong winds except the temps are not yet as high because we are still in July.

Top
#1000640 - 12/07/2011 18:22 Re: Aus 2011 Snow Season [Re: GrizzlyBear]
Blizzard Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 31/03/2001
Posts: 10323
Loc: Blue Mountains
I'd be surprised if the models showing the cold air in the Bight beyond +144 didn't produce something in the last week of July. I never trust one or even two runs of a model though - need plenty of runs in a row then consistency inside +72 hours for my approach.

Just like the last system didn't deliver snow of note, we need to see how continual runs are going as they get within +72. I do like the potential though for late July.
_________________________
BoM Storm Spotter, snow chaser, webmaster for www.blackheathweather.com

Top
#1000644 - 12/07/2011 18:43 Re: Aus 2011 Snow Season [Re: Blizzard]
GrizzlyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2011
Posts: 2359
Loc: Yetholme [1180m] Central Table...
I still do not like the look of the current patterns, its just too similar to September. Look at what we got, Tasmania had the typical September low level snow, we got the typical September winds. Now the models have just about collapsed in a heap with no clear progression of cold fronts. In a normal winter before this happens the cold fronts pick up frequency and start to deliver the regular snowfalls to the Snowies with every week or two a stronger one gives a little snow to the CT's. Would not surprise me now if we are seeing the early signs of sprummer already. Not writing off winter yet of course, but will not hesitate to do so if patterns do not improve pretty soon.

Top
#1000645 - 12/07/2011 18:55 Re: Aus 2011 Snow Season [Re: GrizzlyBear]
aslaws Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/05/2002
Posts: 1751
Loc: Narrow Neck Rd, Katoomba 1020m...
It will be interesting to see how cold tomorrow & Thursday will be under the large area of cloud moving in from South Australia. Weatherzone news advises that it only reached 5.7C on Mt Lofty today. Hopefully some cooling tonight before the blanket of cloud & moisture rolls in. I always fantasise about these continental systems giving us some snow but it is always just a few degrees too warm for that.
Currently 4.8C here but a degree cooler at Mt Boyce.

P.S. I love days with a deck of high cloud overhead - always seems very dramatic & atmospheric, especially contrasted against some autumn colour. It would be a bit monotonous if it happened all the time but I am looking forward to some cold, wintry, high cloud weather over the next couple of days.


Edited by aslaws (12/07/2011 18:59)

Top
Page 16 of 35 < 1 2 ... 14 15 16 17 18 ... 34 35 >


Who's Online
6 registered (rainshy, Trav dawwggg, 4 invisible), 107 Guests and 3 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
Evil Kitty, Jake, ka0tik_pengwin, Nullamanna WX, shaunandwendy, stormygirl
Forum Stats
28059 Members
32 Forums
22561 Topics
1310696 Posts

Max Online: 2925 @ 02/02/2011 22:23
Satellite Image