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#959340 - 11/02/2011 07:12 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Stevo59]
weatherprincess Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2011
Posts: 256
Loc: strathpine, brisbane
judging from all the models its doesnt look like anything is forming in the Coral sea... which is a great thing for Queensland now maybe everyone can get to life as normal.. or am i wrong i am still just learning but judging from all the models nothing in particular shows, i know the cmc was showing something around the 13th feb but doesnt look like it is there anymore

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#959346 - 11/02/2011 07:57 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Stevo59]
Steamy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/03/2004
Posts: 694
Loc: Mackay Qld Australia
Originally Posted By: Stevo59
There is a surface trough near Fiji:



That is not unusual Stevo59. The trough however is under the upper low so a cyclone forming is not likely. In fact it was an upper low combining with a surface trough which caused the Brisbane Floods.

For a cyclone to form the surface trough has to remain while the upper low dissipates and is replaced by upper divergence.

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#959350 - 11/02/2011 08:15 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Steamy]
JoshweatherNOW. Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/01/2011
Posts: 261
Loc: Cairns, Bayview
Dont upper lows hinder cyclones when they are around after they have formed??
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#959354 - 11/02/2011 08:33 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: JoshweatherNOW.]
Steamy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/03/2004
Posts: 694
Loc: Mackay Qld Australia
Originally Posted By: JoshweatherNOW.
Dont upper lows hinder cyclones when they are around after they have formed??


Yes they can e.g. TC Anthony was hindered by an upper low.
It all depends where the upper low is in relation to the TC. An upper low could also aid a TC with increased outflow if it was positioned not over the TC but to the south or north of a TC.

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#959355 - 11/02/2011 08:38 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Steamy]
Stevo59 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/01/2009
Posts: 1037
Loc: Cairns
Good stuff Steamy! Yasi obviously had a massive upper high sitting over the top providing the amazing outflow! You are right about the SEQ floods. Unusual, as previous big events were due to cyclones crossing the coast to the north of the catchments.
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#959359 - 11/02/2011 08:43 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: weatherprincess]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5182
Loc: Diamond Valley
Originally Posted By: weatherprincess
judging from all the models its doesnt look like anything is forming in the Coral sea...


Mostly, yet CMC is persisting with cyclogenesis around New Caladonia over the weekend as a small system and making a b-line towards SEQ by Tuesday contrary to every other model. The remnants will then drag in moisture from a solid NE flow resulting in heavy rain. I think the other models are bauking at this scenario because of all the shear out there at the moment. Maybe CMC knows something the others don't. The latest shear tendency is starting to open up between NC and SEQ, but still, it would have to dodge a lot of bullets.
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#959361 - 11/02/2011 08:47 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Inclement Weather]
weatherprincess Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2011
Posts: 256
Loc: strathpine, brisbane
yeah i have noticed the cmc is staying very consistant. but the others are really following in queue to support their theory, i have seen alot of activity on the cmc model, i sort of find it hard to believe as the other models are showing something totally different..

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#959365 - 11/02/2011 08:48 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: weatherprincess]
weatherprincess Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2011
Posts: 256
Loc: strathpine, brisbane
i think more so than likely SEQ might be in for a lot of heavy rain let just hope its not around areas that are already likely to flood.

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#959367 - 11/02/2011 08:50 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Steamy]
weatherprincess Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2011
Posts: 256
Loc: strathpine, brisbane
just asking i thought the floods in brissy were caused by a cyclone? is that correct... i know we had alot of raining the week before leading up to that event and than with the cyclone activity that was hanging around... maybe i am wrong but i thought i heard the weather people say that is what cause those big floods in toowoomba

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#959373 - 11/02/2011 09:07 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: weatherprincess]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4062
Loc: El Arish
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Vanuatu issued by the Vanuatu Meteorological Service, Port Vila at 06:00 am Friday, 11 February 2011.

A low pressure may develop within the southern vicinity of Vanuatu late tomorrow. The potential for the low to develop further is low.
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#959374 - 11/02/2011 09:10 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: weatherprincess]
Memories of Ice Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/07/2008
Posts: 220
Loc: Brisbane
Originally Posted By: weatherprincess
just asking i thought the floods in brissy were caused by a cyclone? is that correct... i know we had alot of raining the week before leading up to that event and than with the cyclone activity that was hanging around... maybe i am wrong but i thought i heard the weather people say that is what cause those big floods in toowoomba


Nothing at all to do with a tropical cyclone.
It was an upper low.

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#959383 - 11/02/2011 09:15 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Memories of Ice]
weatherprincess Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2011
Posts: 256
Loc: strathpine, brisbane
Oh ok thanks for that

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#959399 - 11/02/2011 10:37 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: weatherprincess]
Coxy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 1041
Loc: Jindalee, QLD
Originally Posted By: weatherprincess
just asking i thought the floods in brissy were caused by a cyclone? is that correct... i know we had alot of raining the week before leading up to that event and than with the cyclone activity that was hanging around... maybe i am wrong but i thought i heard the weather people say that is what cause those big floods in toowoomba


As mentioned, not the 2011 floods.

The 1974 floods were caused by TC Wanda that crossed around Fraser Island IIRC.

I also believe the 1893 and 1841 floods (much worse than both 74 and 2011) were cyclone related.

But 2011 shows it doesn't have to be a cyclone that causes serious, persistent heavy rainfall and flooding in SEQ.

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#959412 - 11/02/2011 11:18 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Coxy]
Ken Ring Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/11/2002
Posts: 130
Loc: Auckland
In my view these cyclones are really all part of the same event system traversing the northern half of Australia all summer, spanning late December to April. The frequency of these is caused by the combination coming around again of close perigees in the summer season coinciding with the moon positioned near the equator. This comes about every 9 years and this time is being added to by an awakening sun. Whether or not the systems get cyclone names is just an expression of wind strength and perhaps they should not be regarded as isolated weather systems but rather as segments of a seasonal event pattern.
For February my almanac and Pacific report lists a tropical low over the northeast of the Coral Sea affecting the northern QLD coast by about the 11th. This low is developing at the top right now. Another tropical low forming over or near the Solomons should spread to Vanuatu by 15th, intensify and maybe get called a cyclone, weaken then intensify again, finally moving SE past the E coast of the North Island.
1973 was one of the wettest years in Australian history, 2x 19-yr moon cycles back. There was another cyclone then too, TC Madge, and Tracy in 1974 that blew away Darwin. Madge's path was a bit like Yasi
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/history/madge.shtml.
Madge took some two weeks to finally cross the country from the NE to the W..
Another 19-yr cycle further back takes us to 1954, when a cyclone devastated the Northern Rivers district of NSW as well as the Gold Coast area of QLD and Brisbane. Lismore scored over 250mm of rain in one day.

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#959423 - 11/02/2011 11:57 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Ken Ring]
Mr Harvey Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/01/2010
Posts: 260
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville
Very interesting GFS run for Queensland - cyclone forming off the cape and heading in a southerly direction down towards St.Lawrence next week. No other models have suggested anything like this yet, so it could just be GFS being creative. Looking at the forecasts I cannot see how a system would move south along the coast like that at the moment, I would expect some westerly component to the movement. Anyway, not long to wait to see if this comes about.

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#959426 - 11/02/2011 11:59 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Mr Harvey]
snugaroo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/03/2010
Posts: 713
Loc: Blacks Beach, QLD, Australia
Oh geez! Well I'll keep a close eye on the other models and see if any of them come on board with it. Definitely don't want a cyclone down here! grin
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#959437 - 11/02/2011 12:16 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: snugaroo]
SBT Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2007
Posts: 14155
Loc: Townsville Dry Tropics
It is just one model and that far out it is bound to be highly inaccurate. Not a zot showing up on ECMWF out to the 20th. ECMWF 20th Feb
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#959438 - 11/02/2011 12:17 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: snugaroo]
point breaks Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 245
Loc: Southport, Qld
That GFS run is rather interesting... it looks like it develops from the trough that is currently in GOC at the moment... over the last few days some of the other models had that trough moving west into some pretty severe weather for the top of NT.

EDIT. The BOM synoptic charts have it still running west, as does CMC


Edited by point breaks (11/02/2011 12:20)
Edit Reason: more info
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#959439 - 11/02/2011 12:18 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Morning Glory]
wonderweather Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/01/2010
Posts: 122
Loc: Julatten, Atherton Tablelands
Originally Posted By: Morning Glory
Originally Posted By: wonderweather
Originally Posted By: LonglifeMilk
Am I to gather from the past couple of pages that there isn't anything major to worry about for the next week or so atleast in the Coral Sea / Far North Qld coast region? Sorry if a silly question - this is the first chance I have had to log on since Yasi and thought I would check on what was happening in our area...

Me too LLM, still have no phone/internet - thanks Yasi - power came on last nite - thanks Ergon
Obviously everyone's catching up on sleep...
So if anyone could let us know what the models are saying (since last week we were looking at another 2 major cyclones before the end of Feb).


It's all quiet in the east for the extended future WW and LLM. Now it's the west coasts' turn for some TC action. However, there is still the month of March to come.

Thanks MG - still no internet so am catching up on things when in town or bothering the neighbours.

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#959440 - 11/02/2011 12:18 Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 [Re: Mr Harvey]
snugaroo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/03/2010
Posts: 713
Loc: Blacks Beach, QLD, Australia
Oh geez! Well I'll keep a close eye on the other models and see if any of them come on board with it. Definitely don't want a cyclone down here! grin
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