The old JERRY hey...Still remember one of the coldest days I can remember was watching footy at Boyer.....fffffreezing!! That was a good 15 to 20 years ago.

Warm one for March today in Hobart, currently 27.5 degrees but when i was outside it felt more like early 30's.

Tassie has largely escaped all the extreme weather this summer; however, it has only been on borrowed time. Most of the models have now aligned to prog that the east coast of the Apple Isle is going to be in for an absolute shellacking early next week. Some ferocious wind and insane totals are forecast. Keep safe all.

IW it was only yesterday that GFS had all that bad weather off the sth coast of NSW.The charts are all over the place at the moment with this system,so i'd give it till tomorrow night at least.

Yes, pete, I saw that too, but the models have shown consistency in the last few runs, so there seems to be increasing confidence that there is a significant event in the offing. I noticed also that Hobart's forecast has been adjusted this morning to showers midweek from the mostly fine it had yesterday.

Models definitely variable but some models show crazy rain in parts. The mountains and orographics can have a huge bearing on rain rates and amounts down there.

Oughta get St Columba Falls pumping insanely!!

This is the updated statewide forecast issued at 11.40am from Hobart for next Tuesday:

Outlook for Tuesday :
Rain periods, locally heavy about eastern
districts at times. Mild with moderate to fresh east to southeasterly winds,
strong about the coasts later.

Hopefully this happens, i'm looking foward to some heavy rain!
It's been incredibly dry lately, with only very short showers if any

All models getting much closer in outlook now. Definitely someone will get quite wet.

I was went and saw St Columba Falls during that "extreme weather event" when St Helens had massive flash flooding. (The same week that Brisbane and Toowoomba went under.) It was pretty spectacular.

It must be about time we got some rain anyway. I say bring it on.

St Columba falls is excellent any time - I have also seen it pumping quite well and pump it can.

I'm surprised that with all manner of warnings in place for Tassie that this thread is so quite. Wake up Tassie your turn has come.

The tassie folk are in another forum - Stormplanet.com Most of them don't post here generally.

Tas certainly looks like copping a flogging on the NE corner.

Not a drop of rain here today as of yet, even though heavy showers have been forecast all day.

Satellite shows it getting closer.

This one shows it quite well:

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/radar.jsp?lt=wzstate&lc=tas

Always thought it a shame that there is no NE Tas radar...

Latest LAPS (or whatever it is called now) is showing some big falls down the whole E coast tomorrow...Imagine some big totals as it clatters into the mountains...

Not that much rain. BOM observations still saying next to nothing, but we've had a few showers. It was windy early this morning, but nothing that spectacular.
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDT60801/IDT60801.94969.shtml

Conversation hasn't exactly been raging over at stormplanet either. I guess you've got to remember that Tassie only has a population of ~500 000 total, and they don't seem to get that excited about the weather. I mean the flash flooding in January was a talking point, but everyone down here just deals with it.

Most of the tassie contributors are snow freaks. They can get excited by rain but mostly snow. If the event ramped up you would probably see more action there.

The stormplanet site had a few technical issues lately and only just got back on line fully this week. Might have caused some to assume it was still not quite right.

Gray got 327mm in the 24 hours to 9, the third-highest daily fall on record in Tasmania.

Thanks Blair - that's an awesome fall.