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#960228 - 13/02/2011 14:12 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - Technical Discussion Only [Re: Tempest]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 12998
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
Yup the red roof is the house. Have been cleaning up here in Bilyana for the last few days, the SES are going to bring in some machinery later to help remove the debris. We have been chainsawing like mad, and it's beginning to look a bit more 'normal' now. smile
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#965304 - 23/02/2011 13:16 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - Technical Discussion Only [Re: Tempest]
Qnim Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 15/02/2011
Posts: 2
Loc: SE Qld
Hi all,
this is my first post on this great forum.

Regarding earlier posts comparing cyclone intensities, there is a case for cyclone Monica as being the most intense cyclone ever recorded.

"Using the dvorak technique, the peak intensity of the cyclone (Monica) was estimated over 320 km/h (200 mph) along with a minimum pressure below 869 mbar (hPa; 25.66 inHg). At its peak, Monica exceeded a T# of 8.0, the highest ranking on the Dvorak Scale.[12.] However, since the JTWC is not the official warning centre for Australian cyclones, these intensities remain unofficial."

from.......... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Monica

regards,
Peter

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#965308 - 23/02/2011 13:23 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - Technical Discussion Only [Re: Qnim]
Qnim Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 15/02/2011
Posts: 2
Loc: SE Qld
Sorry I forgot to include link to the hourly (approx) tech data for Monica.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/archive2006/23P-list.txt

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#965849 - 24/02/2011 21:44 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - Technical Discussion Only [Re: Qnim]
Wet Wet Wet Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2008
Posts: 2332
Loc: Mackay, Qld
Originally Posted By: Qnim
Regarding earlier posts comparing cyclone intensities, there is a case for cyclone Monica as being the most intense cyclone ever recorded.


Yes I’d agree with Monica being rated the most intense cyclone ever observed in the Australian Region. Official estimates by the BoM had peak wind gusts to 360km/h with central pressure down to 916hPa. I disagree with the BoMs 916hPa, and I doubt it got as low as 869hPa. Rather, I believe Monica got down to about 890-895hPa. But anyway, Yasi on the other hand is estimated to have peak winds up to 285km/h. In terms of ranking with past Australian cyclones, despite all the crap the media were raving on about, there’s no way Yasi would even make it into the top 5, probably further down the list rounding out the top 10 or so.

Personally, I even disagree with the BoMs post analysis of Yasi which has it rated as a category 5 cyclone early on February 2nd prior to reaching Willis Island. I remember the 5am update from the BoM when Yasi was upgraded to category 5 stating peak wind gusts were 295km/h. I said to a few other people there was no way Yasi had yet reach category 5, and was still only a mid to high range category 4. In my opinion, Yasi only intensified to category 5 later that day around 1pm once the system was well to the west of Willis Island.
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#965949 - 25/02/2011 09:29 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - Technical Discussion Only [Re: Wet Wet Wet]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4151
Loc: El Arish
from the BOM summary page.
At the time of writing there are no verified observations of the maximum wind gusts near the cyclone centre. However a barograph at the Tully Sugar Mill recorded a minimum pressure of 929 hPa as the eye passed over suggesting wind gusts of about 285 km/h were possible. This is supported by measurements (subject to verification) from instrumentation operated by the Queensland Government (Department of Environment and Resource Management) at Clump Point (near Mission Beach) which recorded a minimum pressure of 930hPa. Significant wind damage was reported between Innisfail and Townsville where the destructive core of the cyclone crossed the coast. Tully and Cardwell suffered major damage to structures and vegetation with the eye of the cyclone passing over Dunk Island and Tully around midnight on 2nd February.

From my stand point there is much more damage to tree and foliage in Yasi compred to around Innisfail after Larry.
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#965985 - 25/02/2011 12:00 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - Technical Discussion Only [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Stevo59 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/01/2009
Posts: 1037
Loc: Cairns
For those that didn’t catch “Insight” last night on SBS, there is a possibility that Yasi will be officially downgraded to a Cat 4. At the moment BOM has it on its books as a marginal Cat 5 however a wind speed engineer who has done an assessment of the Mission Bch/Tullly area & surrounds, doesn’t believe wind speeds were as strong as predicted and did not exceed 220km/hr. Dr Scott Power from BOM confirmed that this may be true and they are number crunching at the moment before an official record is made.

If you’re interested the show was called “La Nina” and the transcripts are available at:

http://news.sbs.com.au/insight/episode/index/id/346#transcript

In particular the section from about a third-way-through to the end with Dr Scott Power and Dr John Holmes (Wind Engineer, JDH Consulting).
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"Some people are weather wise, but most are otherwise”. Benjamin Franklin.

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#965992 - 25/02/2011 12:30 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi (SPAC, Coral Sea) - Technical Discussion Only [Re: Stevo59]
retired weather man Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4791
Loc: Wynnum
See my comments re above in Yasi General Chat thread.
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