Morning guys, what a dramatic uptick in 5M+ quakes today. Not sure if the X2Class flare a day ago did much to amplify things even though Earth was not in the direct line of fire? Maybe it has I know the proton burst increased at the time.

This image of the coronagraph from SOHO shows the protons hitting SOHO's onboard digital camera - don't see this often just on the big releases - very dense. The X2Class flare was aimed at Mars but STEREO A-head satellite copped a blow.



The NZ quakes are a little concerning.

All 5M+ and close together. USGS have downgraded too much I think. The energy output for the 5.8 was that of a 6.1 quake, it was a 6.2 before the downgrade. I feel something substantial could occur but it's the knowing where that bothers me.

I can predict that every earthquake will always occur within 14 days of a full moon or a new moon.

Does that statement seem true to you or do you doubt it's accuracy?

Would you believe this if say an astrologer said this?

Would you be suprised if the UN head of geology said this?


Think about it for a minute and see if you can work out why this can never be disproven.

USGS Earthquake Hazards Program

Earthquake Facts and Statistics



5- 5.9 = 1319 annually = 3.6 / day
6 - 6.9 [ a good quake ! ] = 134 = one every 2.7 days
7 - 7.9 [ nasty ] = 15 = one every 3.5 weeks



Earthquake Facts and Statistics Graphs

Try it yourself calculator ; How much bigger is a magnitude 8.7 earthquake than a magnitude 5.8 earthquake?

Of course the moon with its 28 day cycle, 14 days within a full or new moon is essentially saying there's a chance every single day. Did a Geologist at the UN say this or is this just hypothetical?

It was recently (within the last 4 days) posted on Watts up with That by a poster as a tongue in cheek method of proving that statistics can lie. Yes he is a scientist.

It took about 20 posters before anyone woke up to his nonsensical claim and a few red faces where seen Lol.

I guess the moral of the post is that any predictive method that forces you to accept a wide margin of error is flawed and at best is nothing but a guess, at worst it is fraud when people have to pay for it.

ROM, but earthquakes didn't occur at a rate of 3.6 a day now did they?

That is just the average spread over 365 days so as a predictive method it is as meaningless as my 14 days post.

I ain' t predicting nuthin SBT!

The point is that earthquakes are happening around the world all the time with the increasingly bigger and increasingly less common ones that cause consternation ranging on up to a diabolical catastrophe, thrown into the mix on a reasonably regular basis.

Some clustering does occur particularly amongst the biggies,[ see page 12 graphs ] the ones that make the eyes go real wide and that's only if you are real lucky, but them's the long term numbers above

I know you knew that ROM. I was pointing out to the average mug punter that think an average means a prediction.
It doesn't as we both know.

But you see it all the time when people post nonsense like 'we are overdue for a big (insert earthquake/cyclone/flood/bushfire/typoon/hurricane/rain/snow/falls of massey ferguson tractors/cane toads/goldfish etc)' when we aren't.

If you could make predictions this way every grade 3 student in the world would be taught this as part of their maths education.



http://www.ga.gov.au/hazards/earthquakes/earthquake-basics/what.html has an interesting table which shows that Earthquakes of 3.2 or less will not be felt by most people unless you are standing directly over the top of them when they occur.

For your info, SBT when I and SD were putting out forecasts of earthquakes it was based on science not just heresay...they have been close to the mark so far, obviously other there are other factors as well, but the correlation are well evident from past data of the solar-earthquake connections.
please read...
The Smithsonian/NASA Astrophysics Data System
Solar activity as a triggering mechanism for earthquakes
Simpson, John F.
a Goodyear Aerospace Corporation, USA
b University of Akron, Akron, Ohio, USA
Received 7 November 1967. Revised 16 December 1967. Available online 28 October 2002.
Earth and Planetary Science Letters, Volume 3, p. 417-425.
Solar activity, as indicated by sunspots, radio noise and geomagnetic indices, plays a significant but by no means exclusive role in the triggering of earthquakes. Maximum quake frequency occurs at times of moderately high and fluctuating solar activity. Terrestrial solar flare effects which are the actual coupling mechanisms which trigger quakes appear to be either abrupt accelerations in the earth's angular velocity or surges of telluric currents in the earth's crust. The graphs presented in this paper permit probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes, and when used in conjunction with local indicators may provide a significant tool for specific earthquake prediction.

Sun-Earth-cosmic connection to understand early
warning of Earthquakes
Saumitra Mukherjee
School of Environmental Sciences, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi-110067,
India
Email: dr.saumitramukherjee@usa.net
Abstract
Muon detector has the potential to function as Nano Sensor to
infer possible earthquake in earthquake prone areas. It has been
observed that 30 to 36 hours before the occurrence of the earthquake
the magnetic field (Kp) and electron flux (E-flux) of the Sun-Earth
environment changes. Using Sun-Observatory-Heliospheric Observatory
(SOHO) satellite data it is possible to monitor the fluctuation every 15
minutes interval. It has been observed that before the occurrence of
earthquake, nanoparticle (muon) intensity reduces, while the
atmospheric temperature rises along with the increase in Kp and E-flux
values. After the earthquake the atmospheric temperature falls suddenly
with the rise in cosmic rays and fall in Kp and E-flux values. It has been
planned by IHY, NASA and UNBSS (United Nations Basic Space Sciences)
to design and install basic hybrid SEVAN (Space Environment Viewing
and Analysis Network) in 14 locations across the world. Cosmic Ray
Division laboratory of Armenia will supply photomultiplier of similar
standards to all these 14 locations including Jawaharlal Nehru University,
New Delhi, India. These detectors will record and correlate the intensity
of cosmic ray data to predict various environmental perturbations
including earthquake. Based on this plan it was attempted to correlate
Kp, Eflux and chages in environment in different locations across the
world with variation of cosmic rays collected from existing muon
detectors.

http://www.google.com.au/search?sourceid...ction+mukherjee
http://www.jnu.ac.in/Faculty/smukherjee/

Universality in solar flare and earthquake occurrence
Authors: L. de Arcangelis, C. Godano, E. Lippiello, M. Nicodemi
(Submitted on 8 Feb 2006)
Abstract: Earthquakes and solar flares are phenomena involving huge and rapid releases of energy characterized by complex temporal occurrence. By analysing available experimental catalogs, we show that the stochastic processes underlying these apparently different phenomena have universal properties. Namely both problems exhibit the same distributions of sizes, inter-occurrence times and the same temporal clustering: we find afterflare sequences with power law temporal correlations as the Omori law for seismic sequences. The observed universality suggests a common approach to the interpretation of both phenomena in terms of the same driving physical mechanism.
Subjects: Statistical Mechanics (cond-mat.stat-mech)
Journal reference: Phys. Rev. Lett. 96, 051102 (2006)
DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevLett.96.051102
Cite as: arXiv:cond-mat/0602208v1 [cond-mat.stat-mech]

new one...
Update time = Mon Jan 30 5:38:31 UTC 2012


MAG UTC DATE-TIME
y/m/d h:m:s LAT
deg LON
deg DEPTH
km Region
MAP 6.3 2012/01/30 05:11:01 -14.179 -75.644 39.2 NEAR THE COAST OF CENTRAL PERU



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Should be at least another one, likely 2 or 3 of 6 or greater magnitude in next 2-4 days according to my forecast model, then a break with none or possibly only 1 or 2 max, in the period from 4th February up till 21st-22nd February 2012, when we should move into another active period for 6.0 or greater earthquakes.
Cheers

A big one in period specified in last forecast
near vanuatu, together with a lot of 5.0 and above as well.

"MAP

7.1

2012/02/02 13:34:41

-17.766

167.134

23.1

VANUATU"

I've been off the radar as I'm so busy between my job and helping others, I literally have been falling asleep with weatherzone open on my mobile at night - tonight I stop though and have the weekend off

I forgot to mention in my last post that there was a sizable coronal hole as well affecting matters at the time.

Now....
What on Earth is happening with Vanuatu guys - too many energy drinks? I count 15 quakes in the last 24hours. Only one volcano in the area is code yellow, two are code green, so doubt if they are having any affect at all for the area. Quite a sizeable in magnitude little swarm of activity after the 7.1M - which I hope was the main event and not a foreshock. They certainly are not immune to large quakes there.

On USGS it is Vanuatu, Vanuatu, Vanuatu etc and nothing in between since the 7.1M which looks quite bizarre when looking to see what is occurring.
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_big.php

4.9 2012/02/03 08:13:17 -17.953 167.817 18.5 VANUATU
5.7 2012/02/03 06:01:42 -17.380 167.183 24.9 VANUATU
5.4 2012/02/03 04:33:09 -17.484 167.232 23.8 VANUATU
6.0 2012/02/03 03:46:23 -17.376 167.278 21.7 VANUATU
4.8 2012/02/02 21:47:52 -17.523 167.235 9.9 VANUATU
5.1 2012/02/02 20:26:31 -17.519 167.359 17.4 VANUATU
5.1 2012/02/02 19:44:36 -17.457 167.229 31.9 VANUATU
4.9 2012/02/02 19:20:46 -17.996 167.828 10.3 VANUATU
5.2 2012/02/02 17:28:48 -17.596 167.339 20.8 VANUATU
5.5 2012/02/02 17:27:07 -17.963 167.209 22.8 VANUATU
5.0 2012/02/02 16:04:46 -17.779 167.233 33.3 VANUATU
5.3 2012/02/02 13:57:08 -17.462 167.169 10.0 VANUATU
4.9 2012/02/02 13:53:45 -17.597 167.191 13.4 VANUATU
7.1 2012/02/02 13:34:41 -17.766 167.134 23.1 VANUATU
4.8 2012/02/02 10:44:08 -17.872 168.434 147.2 VANUATU

Here it is in Earthqake 3D




EQ Reporter on Youtube has released a visual report on the latest quake activity for Vanuatu

http://youtu.be/1DfbaoIVdG4

Hopefully the region will settle down I love all the information you have posted ROM on statistics. I have some interesting links too BD about science exploring more the correlation between solar activity having an affect (or as I refer to it as amplifying) on seismic activity. Just need to dig it up when I'm not falling asleep

Another 6.0 & 5.7 at Vanautu also...to add to the rest

There is so much Seismic activity at vanautu today it isn't good
M 6.0, Vanuatu
Friday, February 3, 2012 03:46:23 UTC
Friday, February 3, 2012 02:46:23 PM at epicenter
Depth: 21.70 km (13.48 mi)
M 5.4, Vanuatu
Friday, February 3, 2012 04:33:09 UTC
Friday, February 3, 2012 03:33:09 PM at epicenter
Depth: 23.80 km (14.79 mi)
M 5.7, Vanuatu
Friday, February 3, 2012 06:01:41 UTC
Friday, February 3, 2012 05:01:41 PM at epicenter
Depth: 24.90 km (15.47 mi)
M 4.9, Vanuatu
Friday, February 3, 2012 08:13:17 UTC
Friday, February 3, 2012 07:13:17 PM at epicenter
Depth: 18.50 km (11.50 mi)

A pretty serious cluster in the Phillipines:

06-FEB M4.6 ... 14.9km ... CEBU, PHILIPPINE ISLANDS
06-FEB M4.6 ... 10.0km ... NEGROS, PHILIPPINE ISLANDS
06-FEB M5.2 ... 36.5km ... NEGROS, PHILIPPINE ISLANDS
06-FEB M6.0 ... 15.1km ... NEGROS, PHILIPPINE ISLANDS
06-FEB M6.2 ... 35.4km ... NEGROS, PHILIPPINE ISLANDS
06-FEB M5.9 ... 34.6km ... CEBU, PHILIPPINE ISLANDS
06-FEB M4.8 ... 21.3km ... NEGROS, PHILIPPINE ISLANDS
06-FEB M6.8 ... 46.6km ... NEGROS, PHILIPPINE ISLANDS

As we know, earhtquakes become frequent these days and since its a natural thing we can do nothing about it but be prepared at all times. What is the cause? obviously it is because of faulting, a sudden lateral or vertical movement of rock along a rupture surface. That is, the immense rigid plates at the surface of our planet in response to flow of rock within the earth.

BD, since we're coming up to the highlighted period above, just wanted to ask whether anything has changed in your predictions? This period seems to be up there with the most active week for the potential for strong quakes that you have forecasted.

Seismic activity above ~5.5 has declined over the past 4 days, which is interesting noting the decline in sunspots and strong solar flares recently... If this solar lull keeps up, would this change your forecast for the period, 24th Feb - 2nd March?

Dropped a bit SGB...1 to 3 at 6.0 or greater forecast from 26/2/2012 to 7/3/2012, then lull till 22/3/2012 for a week or so where 2 to 5 at 6.0 or greater expected.
Cheers

Latest much the same forecast as before : 1 to 3 at 6.0 magnitude or greater forecast from 26/2/2012 to 7/3/2012, then lull till 22/3/2012 then for a week or so where 2 to 5 at 6.0 magnitude or greater expected.......
BUT, A stronger peak showing up from late March to late April 2012 where quite a few 6.0 or greater magnitude could be expected.
Cheers