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#975582 - 17/03/2011 02:16 Re: NSW Trough, Rain and Thunderstorms 10th-17th March 2011 [Re: core puncher]
Ben Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/10/2002
Posts: 4924
Loc: Wahroonga or Asquith, NSW |Las...
Awesome shots there corepuncher looks like you scored fantastically, all that hard effort paid off huh! Looks like a nice base/wall cloud on the splitter, and a great beaver tail/inflow band associated on the second storm. Can't wait for timelapse smile


Edited by Ben (17/03/2011 02:16)

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#975598 - 17/03/2011 07:35 Re: NSW Trough, Rain and Thunderstorms 10th-17th March 2011 [Re: jtw1]
Ocean Thunder Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/03/2011
Posts: 290
Loc: Dee Why
Originally Posted By: jtw1
i thought this was a forum on weather events and chase info, not about who can and cant chase, air your greivances through private messaging, oh and grow up.


That's right and that's what i was saying. I was being questioned why i wasn't chasing.
And the person in question doesn't take PM's.


Edited by Thunder Cat (17/03/2011 07:36)

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#975630 - 17/03/2011 09:55 Re: NSW Trough, Rain and Thunderstorms 10th-17th March 2011 [Re: Ocean Thunder]
Storm Hunter Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/08/2004
Posts: 1216
Loc: Ellalong.10kms SW of Cessnock ...
30 MMS in 15 mins,about 9.30 pm last night here from a very heavy storm from SW,there was a bit of flash flooding.

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#975654 - 17/03/2011 11:33 Re: NSW Trough, Rain and Thunderstorms 10th-17th March 2011 [Re: Storm Hunter]
MC Thomas Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2004
Posts: 1104
Loc: SE Qld
Awesome photos core puncher, good work in getting yourself in the right place at the right time. I wonder whether that first storm was a LP supercell. A bit hard to tell from a single picture but there doesn't look like there is much precipitation around the updraft base. Looks like a very nice wall cloud on the last photo as well. Looking forward to the video.

Anymore info on this possible tornado in the ACT?

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#975657 - 17/03/2011 11:53 Re: NSW Trough, Rain and Thunderstorms 10th-17th March 2011 [Re: MC Thomas]
MC Thomas Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2004
Posts: 1104
Loc: SE Qld

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#975669 - 17/03/2011 12:51 Re: NSW Trough, Rain and Thunderstorms 10th-17th March 2011 [Re: MC Thomas]
Funnel Cloud Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/01/2011
Posts: 224
Loc: North-east Lake Macquarie, NSW
Quote:
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
for LARGE HAILSTONES, FLASH FLOODING and DAMAGING WIND
For people in the
Mid North Coast,
Hunter and parts of the
North West Slopes and Plains and
Northern Tablelands Forecast Districts.


Issued at 11:32 am Thursday, 17 March 2011.


Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce large hailstones, very heavy rainfall, flash flooding and damaging winds in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Coffs Harbour, Port Macquarie, Taree, Armidale, Tamworth and Gunnedah.

Quote:
DETAILED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
for LARGE HAILSTONES, FLASH FLOODING and DAMAGING WIND
For people in parts of the
Greater Newcastle and
Maitland/Cessnock areas.


Issued at 12:15 pm Thursday, 17 March 2011.


The Bureau of Meteorology warns that, at 12:15 pm, severe thunderstorms were detected on weather radar near Raymond Terrace, Karuah and the Muswellbrook district. These thunderstorms are moving towards the east to northeast. They are forecast to affect Williamtown, Port Stephens and the Hawks Nest district by 12:30 pm and Nelson Bay, Lemon Tree Passage and Mallabula by 12:45 pm.


Large hailstones, very heavy rainfall, flash flooding and damaging winds are likely.



Looks like a possible supercell around Port Stephens. We're getting side swiped by this cell at Broadmedow.

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#975673 - 17/03/2011 13:07 Re: NSW Trough, Rain and Thunderstorms 10th-17th March 2011 [Re: Funnel Cloud]
MC Thomas Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2004
Posts: 1104
Loc: SE Qld
I think those are hail spikes on the 256 km radar. Not bad for March!

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#975680 - 17/03/2011 13:24 Re: NSW Trough, Rain and Thunderstorms 10th-17th March 2011 [Re: MC Thomas]
MC Thomas Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2004
Posts: 1104
Loc: SE Qld
Edit: Looking into the conditions, it is actually looking very nice for severe storms at the moment. 500 mbar winds are quite strong at 30-40 knots from the WSW. Winds are E/ENE in the lower levels giving excellent directional shear. On top of that, GFS has not forecast CAPE correctly with dew points in the 21-22 range (around Taree) where GFS has them at 19-20.

I think large hail is likely with any supercells this afternoon as well as the usual strong winds. I will throw this out as well, with the very low LCL, excellent directional shear and moderate CAPE, I would not discount the possiblity of a tornado. Maybe I am dreaming.

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#975686 - 17/03/2011 13:28 Re: NSW Trough, Rain and Thunderstorms 10th-17th March 2011 [Re: MC Thomas]
upper level disturbance Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/05/2001
Posts: 1142
Loc: Canberra
I rang the BoM here in Canberra to ascertain if they observed a tornado (around the Queanbeyan, airport area) yesterday. Unfortunately the guy on duty today wasn't working yesterday but he did say nobody had reported anything to him, from within their office, vis a vis a tornado, in relation to yesterday's storm.

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#975695 - 17/03/2011 13:39 Re: NSW Trough, Rain and Thunderstorms 10th-17th March 2011 [Re: upper level disturbance]
aussielunix Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/10/2003
Posts: 756
Loc: Greenwell Point, NSW
I would love to be on the coast of Forster right now.
That cell looks huge.

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#975697 - 17/03/2011 13:40 Re: NSW Trough, Rain and Thunderstorms 10th-17th March 2011 [Re: upper level disturbance]
slotmachine Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 02/11/2007
Posts: 107
Loc: Newcastle
That storm off Port Stephens that was the subjct of the STW has almost turned 180 degress.

And there is a beauty just off Forster.

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#975706 - 17/03/2011 14:25 Re: NSW Trough, Rain and Thunderstorms 10th-17th March 2011 [Re: slotmachine]
EddyG Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 1316
Loc: Port Stephens - NSW
Well i was'nt home for that storm that came through just after lunch, was in Newy shopping with the wife.
I recorded 23.8mm from that storm, hopefully we can score a 2nd round.
_________________________
Rainfall MTD - 150.8mm
YTD - 797.2mm
2012 rainfall - 1161.4mm




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#975713 - 17/03/2011 14:43 Re: NSW Trough, Rain and Thunderstorms 10th-17th March 2011 [Re: EddyG]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 8019
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Just scraped the edge of a thunderstorm here. Not much rain in it, with only 1.8mm here but the wind was strong at times just before the storm. It ended a nine day dry spell.

I hope we can get another storm this afternoon/evening.
_________________________
South West Rocks (30.89šS 153.04šE, 5m ASL), Mid North Coast:
May Rainfall: 13.6mm (May Avg. 132.5mm)
May Raindays: 6 (May Avg. 11.3 raindays)
Year to date Rainfall: 1046.4mm (Jan-May Avg. 806.6mm)
Year to date Raindays: 68 (Jan-May Avg. 67.1 raindays)

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#975717 - 17/03/2011 14:55 Re: NSW Trough, Rain and Thunderstorms 10th-17th March 2011 [Re: aussielunix]
Ocean Thunder Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/03/2011
Posts: 290
Loc: Dee Why
Originally Posted By: lunix
I would love to be on the coast of Forster right now.
That cell looks huge.




I agree, I love it up there and have seen some great storms in the region while on surf trips. Hopefully for them they get some night-time lightshow action too.
Great part of the coast.


Edited by Thunder Cat (17/03/2011 14:59)

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#975736 - 17/03/2011 15:57 Re: NSW Trough, Rain and Thunderstorms 10th-17th March 2011 [Re: Ocean Thunder]
MC Thomas Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2004
Posts: 1104
Loc: SE Qld
Looks like Port Macquarie is copping it now. Would love to be there.

Really an awesome setup and I am suprised there is not more interest. There is an 8 knot ENE'ly at Port Macquarie Airport (3 pm) with a 35 knot WSW'ly at 500 mbar. That gives a 0-500 mbar shear of 43 knots (close approximation of the 0-6 km shear) which is sufficient for supercells. Also, putting in the current obs for Port Macquarie Airport into a GFS forecast sounding gives a surface-based CAPE of 2100 j/kg!!!

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#975744 - 17/03/2011 16:26 Re: NSW Trough, Rain and Thunderstorms 10th-17th March 2011 [Re: MC Thomas]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 8019
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Quite a few friends from Port Macquarie are saying the storm was "insane", with flash flooding reported. If it stays on its current path, then it's next stop, South West Rocks. Have just warned parents to be vigilant of the storm possibly approaching. Port Macquarie Airport (situated about 7-8kms inland) would have not copped the brunt of the storm.
_________________________
South West Rocks (30.89šS 153.04šE, 5m ASL), Mid North Coast:
May Rainfall: 13.6mm (May Avg. 132.5mm)
May Raindays: 6 (May Avg. 11.3 raindays)
Year to date Rainfall: 1046.4mm (Jan-May Avg. 806.6mm)
Year to date Raindays: 68 (Jan-May Avg. 67.1 raindays)

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#975745 - 17/03/2011 16:30 Re: NSW Trough, Rain and Thunderstorms 10th-17th March 2011 [Re: Seabreeze]
MC Thomas Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2004
Posts: 1104
Loc: SE Qld
Well the Port Macquarie is now running into a lot of junk coming off the ranges. This looks to be weakening the storm now. If the junk can get out of its way then maybe it can survive. Still an impressive storm up to now.

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#975749 - 17/03/2011 16:39 Re: NSW Trough, Rain and Thunderstorms 10th-17th March 2011 [Re: Seabreeze]
Dave-Wx Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/08/2001
Posts: 4943
Loc: Heritage Park, Brisbane, QLD
Originally Posted By: Freeze
Originally Posted By: Michael Bath
Yeah Snow Gypsy, the Namoi radar has been producing a poor display a little while now - hopefully it's fixed soon.

MB


It happened after being knocked for about an hour and half by a thunderstorm at the start of this month, and the problem was apparent to me as soon as it was brought back online. I called NSW BOM the day after to report that the radar was underestimating rainfall rates but said they were not aware of any problems. But clearly there is a problem. It was evident at the time of my call, with Moree and Newcastle outperforming Namoi radar for storms that were right near Gunnedah/Tamworth but I was given a silly talk about how radar's work. I ended the call soon after thanking them for their time...


This sounds exactly like what happened to our doppler in Brisbane two Octobers ago. It was off for a certain period (forget whether it was a storm, or technical issue) and when it turned back on, it was producing very weak echoes. In fact people got hail from a storm that was registering yellow/orange! Anyway the bottom line is that the calibration has been reset, and it took the Bureau a couple of weeks last time to pick up on it. I'm very sure of this, as Namoi radar today looks just like what our radar did relative to other radars at the time in Oct 09.

Hopefully someone there is reading these forums this time and takes a closer look smile

PS: AWESOME photos there from you core puncher! I'm very confident you bagged not one, but TWO supercells in a matter of an hour! Well done!

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#975758 - 17/03/2011 17:09 Re: NSW Trough, Rain and Thunderstorms 10th-17th March 2011 [Re: Dave-Wx]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 8019
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
A couple of pics from a friend in Port Macquarie:



_________________________
South West Rocks (30.89šS 153.04šE, 5m ASL), Mid North Coast:
May Rainfall: 13.6mm (May Avg. 132.5mm)
May Raindays: 6 (May Avg. 11.3 raindays)
Year to date Rainfall: 1046.4mm (Jan-May Avg. 806.6mm)
Year to date Raindays: 68 (Jan-May Avg. 67.1 raindays)

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#975786 - 17/03/2011 18:08 Re: NSW Trough, Rain and Thunderstorms 10th-17th March 2011 [Re: Seabreeze]
Funnel Cloud Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/01/2011
Posts: 224
Loc: North-east Lake Macquarie, NSW
Forgot to mention before (I was checking the forums at 6 AM this morning without being logged in), nice pics CP! I'm glad and jealous that you got onto two supercells smile

What a great few days of storms around NSW, severe storms, supercells and even a possible tornado. This low pressure system has done a great job. If only I got to see some of the action frown

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