Page 4 of 20 < 1 2 3 4 5 6 ... 19 20 >
Topic Options
#975743 - 17/03/2011 16:22 Re: earthquakes are increasing what is the cause? [Re: avinet]
shama Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/03/2010
Posts: 784
Loc: Frenchs Forest, Petrie, QLD (H...
More earthquakes:
6.5 in Vanuatu this afternoon
5.3 earlier today in Chile
4.0 a few days ago off the coast of QLD

and then the ones in NZ and Japan.

Personally I'd be inclined to say that maybe the earthquakes in recent weeks aren't necessarily increasing, but rather we have a heightened sense of awareness?

They do seem larger though.
_________________________
Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn't do than by the ones you did. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe habour. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover....

Top
#975754 - 17/03/2011 16:58 Re: earthquakes are increasing what is the cause? [Re: Colin Maitland]
aerology Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 05/11/2009
Posts: 92
Originally Posted By: coltan
Originally Posted By: Keith
Originally Posted By: ROM
It's an absolute nutter's picnic out there in blogland commentary at the moment.
Rational thinking and common sense has gone seriously missing.

I'm with Keith and Sir BT.

There's also another risk..are we all going to keep reacting more out of fear and alarm instead of arguing from solid evidence, such things as CO2 heating up the earth's core, and a thousand and one other things that we 'THINK' (ie we don't know) might cause calamities?

I think this mentality stems from chaos theory (butterflies can cause hurricanes) and this absurd Gaia rubbish. Then the far left seizes upon it and imposes its own interpretations. Worst of all, in all the blogs and forums, people keep restating the fear until we all end up believing it into existence. The 'loonies' know this and use it effectively.

We are losing our grip on things if we keep letting this happen.


The chaos theory, that originated in 1890 by Henri Poincaré, if taken out of concept it is easily misunderstood.

the Butterfly effect,

That is referring to the idea that a butterfly's wings might create tiny changes in the atmosphere that may ultimately alter the path of a tornado or delay, accelerate or even prevent the occurrence of a tornado in a certain location. The flapping wing represents a small change in the initial condition of the system, which causes a chain of events leading to large-scale alterations of events. Had the butterfly not flapped its wings, the trajectory of the system might have been vastly different. While the butterfly does not cause the tornado, the flap of its wings is an essential part of the initial conditions resulting in a tornado.Recurrence, the approximate return of a system towards its initial conditions, together with sensitive dependence on initial conditions are the two main ingredients for chaotic motion. They have the practical consequence of making complex systems, such as the weather, difficult to predict past a certain time range (approximately a week in the case of weather)

This phenomenon, common to chaos theory, is also known as sensitive dependence on initial conditions. Just a small change in the initial conditions can drastically change the long-term behavior of a system. Or another words, what does the outcome of a specific event have on the rest of the world.


My way of looking at the Chaos theory is " for every action there is a reaction."[i][/i]



The above effects are not applied to the real world!!!!
These effects are confined to the internal workings of weather and climate MODELS, as a result of excessive feedbacks that build on themselves as the forecast ages, the compounding of positive feedbacks shows the extreme effects as mentioned.

In reality the buffeting of the leaves on the trees dampens out the butterfly's effects with in a few feet. Do some deeper reading on the chaos theory rather than the blogs, as reality is a lot different than commonly thought on the internet.

Top
#975761 - 17/03/2011 17:25 Re: earthquakes are increasing what is the cause? [Re: aerology]
aerology Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 05/11/2009
Posts: 92
Comments by Piers Corbyn in regard to the causes of the severe weather and quakes, basically saying they had a common cause, the sun/lunar combined effects driving both the tectonic activity and the global weather trends.

http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=326&c=5

Top
#975764 - 17/03/2011 17:36 Re: earthquakes are increasing what is the cause? [Re: aerology]
Keith Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/12/2001
Posts: 6453
Loc: Kings Langley, NSW
Ok it's not motivated by chaos theory but people still come to conclusions (about GW and its causes etc) that to me are bizarre. Makes no difference to me..but that's where I'll leave it.

If I started reading chaos theory I'd go nuts. Oops..chaotic.

Top
#975773 - 17/03/2011 17:53 Re: earthquakes are increasing what is the cause? [Re: Keith]
mojo73 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 27/02/2011
Posts: 13
Loc: Near Yatala, SE QLD
At last! someone other than myself believes the solar cycle has an influence on (among many things on earth) the weather smile

Can you say 'Magnetic polar reversal' kids? poke

Top
#975776 - 17/03/2011 17:56 Re: earthquakes are increasing what is the cause? [Re: mojo73]
Loopy Radar Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 880
Loc: Lismore NSW
A Major Earthquake in North America Imminent?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ULvx-KGOHQ
_________________________
It's going to be a great storm season... somewhere else!

Top
#975784 - 17/03/2011 18:07 Re: earthquakes are increasing what is the cause? [Re: mojo73]
ROM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/01/2007
Posts: 6628
This might make you happier Mojo!

Journal of Geophysical Research

Quote:
Volcanic Eruptions and Solar Activity

Richard B. Stothers
Institute for Space Studies, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, New York

The historical record of large volcanic eruptions from 1500 to 1980, as contained in two recent eruption catalogs, is subjected to detailed time series analysis. Two weak, but probably statistically significant, periodicities of ∼11 and ∼80 years are detected. Both cycles appear to correlate with well-known cycles of solar activity; the phasing is such that the frequency of volcanic eruptions increases (decreases) slightly around the times of solar minimum (maximum). The weak quasi-biennial solar cycle is not obviously seen in the eruption data, nor are the two slow lunar tidal cycles of 8.85 and 18.6 years. Time series analysis of the volcanogenic acidities in a deep ice core from Greenland, covering the years 553–1972, reveals several very long periods that range from ∼80 to ∼350 years and are similar to the very slow solar cycles previously detected in auroral and carbon 14 records. Mechanisms to explain the Sun-volcano link probably involve induced changes in the basic state of the atmosphere. Solar flares are believed to cause changes in atmospheric circulation patterns that abruptly alter the Earth's spin. The resulting jolt probably triggers small earthquakes which may temporarily relieve some of the stress in volcanic magma chambers, thereby weakening, postponing, or even aborting imminent large eruptions. In addition, decreased atmospheric precipitation around the years of solar maximum may cause a relative deficit of phreatomagmatic eruptions at those times.

Top
#975829 - 17/03/2011 20:11 Re: earthquakes are increasing what is the cause? [Re: ROM]
bd bucketingdown Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2008
Posts: 6033
Loc: Eastern A/Hills SA
I use solar-ionospheric-atmospheric-ocean links all the time in my weather forecasting models Mojo, so you are not alone there!

Top
#975913 - 17/03/2011 22:59 Re: earthquakes are increasing what is the cause? [Re: Keith]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 6965
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Originally Posted By: Keith
Originally Posted By: ROM
It's an absolute nutter's picnic out there in blogland commentary at the moment.
Rational thinking and common sense has gone seriously missing.

I'm with Keith and Sir BT.

There's also another risk..are we all going to keep reacting more out of fear and alarm instead of arguing from solid evidence, such things as CO2 heating up the earth's core, and a thousand and one other things that we 'THINK' (ie we don't know) might cause calamities?

I think this mentality stems from chaos theory (butterflies can cause hurricanes) and this absurd Gaia rubbish. Then the far left seizes upon it and imposes its own interpretations. Worst of all, in all the blogs and forums, people keep restating the fear until we all end up believing it into existence. The 'loonies' know this and use it effectively.

We are losing our grip on things if we keep letting this happen.

I’m finding I’m doing a lot more observing and reading these days :)… I agree, (bold highlight) with ROM.

I always liked the empirical scientific method smile .

Top
#975990 - 18/03/2011 07:51 Re: earthquakes are increasing what is the cause? [Re: Seira]
aerology Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 05/11/2009
Posts: 92
Another link to electromagnetic effects of the sun on Quakes;

http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2011/03/17/m-a-vukcevic-earthquakes-and-geomagnetic-storms/

Top
#976048 - 18/03/2011 11:57 Re: earthquakes are increasing what is the cause? [Re: aerology]
Dustydevil Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/04/2010
Posts: 186
Loc: Darwin
http://www.esc-web.org/papers/potsdam_2004/sce_venkatanathan.pdf

I found this paper above where the author claims "By correlating the planetary positions and geology of that area, earthquakes can be predicted
with fair accuracy with regard to latitude, longitude and magnitude".

I'm not convinced, but if this bloke is on the money, can anyone out there use his theory to predict the next one?

Top
#976122 - 18/03/2011 17:47 Re: earthquakes are increasing what is the cause? [Re: Dustydevil]
aerology Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 05/11/2009
Posts: 92

Top
#976153 - 18/03/2011 19:36 Re: earthquakes are increasing what is the cause? [Re: aerology]
Morning Glory Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/01/2011
Posts: 534
Loc: Emerald Q.
The atmosphere certainly moved.

Nice find Dd. If you have a crack allow for Jupiters' perigee in your calculations.

Don't you just love it when science finally starts catching up with astronomy?

Top
#976184 - 18/03/2011 20:53 Re: earthquakes are increasing what is the cause? [Re: Morning Glory]
jocelyn Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/01/2011
Posts: 90
If it's some kind of in joke, I do apologise, but I'm pretty sure you'll find that astronomy is a science, and always has been.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astronomy

The reality of science is that it is always moving, so those who want to swear on their highschool text books may find themselves looking silly from time to time. Google Scholar is a great way to engage with the actual research that is happening, empirical scientific methods and all. smile

Top
#976228 - 18/03/2011 23:24 Re: earthquakes are increasing what is the cause? [Re: Morning Glory]
avinet Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/03/2010
Posts: 64
Loc: Mountain Creek, Sunshine Coast...
Originally Posted By: Morning Glory
The atmosphere certainly moved.


Don't you just love it when science finally starts catching up with astronomy?


Speaking of astronomy and the influence of the moon and planets on the earth, I seem to remember Morning Glory that you made a very definite prediction in the Coral Sea thread around the 18th February of a large cyclone with plenty of rain hitting Bowen on the 20th March - due to the "Supermoon".

What's gone wrong? Two days to go and no sign of any cyclone any time soon.

Top
#976239 - 18/03/2011 23:57 Re: earthquakes are increasing what is the cause? [Re: avinet]
S .O. Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 1518
Loc: Southern Victoria
Originally Posted By: avinet
Originally Posted By: Morning Glory
The atmosphere certainly moved.


Don't you just love it when science finally starts catching up with astronomy?


Speaking of astronomy and the influence of the moon and planets on the earth, I seem to remember Morning Glory that you made a very definite prediction in the Coral Sea thread around the 18th February of a large cyclone with plenty of rain hitting Bowen on the 20th March - due to the "Supermoon".

What's gone wrong? Two days to go and no sign of any cyclone any time soon.


Does the connected Tasman Sea count , If so I distinctly hear the words ECL , echooing in my eyes .
That and possibly the most southern mid lattitudal High below Aust. come next week . The monsoon trough will have influence below 40-50 deg's south . !
_________________________
" Solar Powered "

Top
#976240 - 19/03/2011 00:10 Re: earthquakes are increasing what is the cause? [Re: S .O.]
!SCHUMMY! Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/04/2008
Posts: 2915
Loc: Jimboomba, SEQ
that forecast ECL is not forecast to develop until tuesday (22nd) a whole 2-3days this supposed super moon, i still cant see how you can think they are related. and dont give me the +/- 3 days either, doesnt work like that....

and i have no idea where you got the MT trough from, it is more than 2000km away!

and this is the wrong thread for this discussion anyway....


Edited by !SCHUMMY! (19/03/2011 00:12)
Edit Reason: am i that stupid!?!? NO!!
_________________________
Youtube: TheSchummy08

Top
#976248 - 19/03/2011 00:52 Re: earthquakes are increasing what is the cause? [Re: !SCHUMMY!]
S .O. Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 1518
Loc: Southern Victoria
I have not used Super moon as reference , I do not believe there is such thing as SuperMoon .
Thats for Astrologists with an agenda . This as you should be able to read, is an answer to someone else's position .The entire time I've been involved in Moon discussion , not once have i suggested it influenced One off events " extreme weather / EQ's " . I have argued strongly that its Tidal effect would influence Currents which are more of a periodical influence on weather .
_________________________
" Solar Powered "

Top
#976249 - 19/03/2011 01:01 Re: earthquakes are increasing what is the cause? [Re: S .O.]
S .O. Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 1518
Loc: Southern Victoria
Schummy ,

Could you please define the word " Monsoonal Trough " ,

I would see it as a large area linked low pressure Originating and still in connection with lattitudes under 15 deg.

If this be the case then by Tues / Wedn , I see an extremely large band of Trough reaching all the way to south of Tassie and almost east to NZ . That my friend is larger than most high pressure cells . Very rare .
_________________________
" Solar Powered "

Top
#976311 - 19/03/2011 11:15 Re: earthquakes are increasing what is the cause? [Re: S .O.]
SBT Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2007
Posts: 14151
Loc: Townsville Dry Tropics
For those of you who may think that the planetary alignment my have some impact on the Earth I offer the following.
The Earth is about 5 billion years of age. So if a planetary alignment was to occur again it more than likely would have previously occurred not once but several hundred times.
Over at bad astronomy the good folk actually worked out the combined effect of every planet in the solar system being in alignment and I offer the following from: http://www.badastronomy.com/bad/misc/planets.html

Quote:

Gravity depends on two things: the mass of the object pulling on you, and its distance. The more mass something has, the stronger it pulls, and the farther away it is, the weaker it pulls. As a matter of fact, the strength depends on the square of the distance. If you double the distance, the force of gravity drops by 2 x 2=4. If you put something ten times farther away, the gravitational force drops by 10 x 10=100. You can see that gravity gets weak pretty quickly with distance.
The tidal force is much like gravity, but it drops with the cube of the distance. This makes it much less important in our case! Say you double the distance to an object. Its tidal force on the Earth drops by 2 x 2 x 2=8. If you increase its distance by a factor of ten, the tidal force drops by 10 x 10 x 10=1000! So tides are in fact much weaker than gravity. (If you want a more detailed description of tides, what causes them and how they behave, I suggest you read my web page all about tides.)
So if we know the mass of an object and its distance, we can calculate the forces of both gravity and tides. It shouldn't be too much of a surprise to find out that the overwhelming winner in this game is the Earth's own Moon. It doesn't mass much (only about 1/80 of the Earth), but it is very close (Venus, the closest planet to the Earth, is at best 150 times farther away!). To make matters easier on us, let's say that the moon's gravitational force on the Earth is equal to 1 in whatever units gravity is measured in. That way we can see right away how strong the other planets are; a gravity of 10 means the planet pulls on the Earth 10 times as much as the Moon does. We can do the same with tides; assume that the tidal force is equal to 1 in tidal force units and see how the other planets fare. So, in units of Moon gravity and tides, below are the forces on the Earth from rest of the planets (the data for masses and distances are from the wonderful page The Nine Planets). The masses are in units of 10^22 kilograms (the Earth masses 6x10^24 kilograms, or 600 on this scale), and the distances in millions of kilometres. By the way, I used the distances of closest approach to the Earth to maximize the effect. Realistically, the force will be smaller than what is listed.
Let's look at gravity first. Right away you can see that even mighty Jupiter, king of the planets, only pulls about 0.01 (= 1%) as hard as the Moon does (just to show how I did this, Jupiter masses 27,000 times the Moon, but is 1640 times farther away. The square of 1640 is about 2.7 million, and 27,000/2.7 million=0.01). Venus is next, with only 0.6 % of the Moon's force. After that, the numbers drop a lot. The total pull of all the planets combined is 0.017, not even 2% of the Moon's pull!

That ain't much. But is it enough to destroy the Earth?

No, it isn't. Think of it this way: the Moon orbits the Earth in an ellipse, which means that sometimes in its orbit it is closer to the Earth than others. At perigee, or closest approach, it is about 363,000 kilometers away, and at apogee, or farthest point, it is about 405,000 kilometers away. If you use these numbers like we did above, you see that the Moon's own gravitational effect on the Earth fluctuates by about 25% every orbit! The Moon orbits the Earth in about a month, incidentally, so it goes from apogee to perigee every two weeks. So every 14 days we see a change in gravitational effects from the Moon more than 10 times greater than all the other planets combined! To put this in even more perspective, the force of the Moon on you is only about 0.000003 times the Earth's. For me, that means I weigh an extra 0.4 grams (0.0009 pounds) more when the Moon is under my feet versus when it's on the horizon (and therefore not contributing to the downward pull of the Earth). Not much! [Oops! (January 13, 2001): A reader pointed out to me that I blew it here. Grams measure mass, not weight. I would still mass the same amount, but my weight will increase when the Moon is under me. Converting from units of weight (pounds) to mass (grams) is only good when you are in one gravity. So really I should have reported my weight in pounds, not in grams.]

Now let's look at tides. Venus stretches us the most of the planets, simply because it is the closest on average. But look! Even Venus only stretches us 5 hundred thousandths as much as the Moon does! This is completely negligible, and the other planets have even less effect. The change in tidal force due to the Moon's elliptical orbit is hugely larger than the combined tides of all the planets. It's worth mentioning that the "alignment" in 2000 has all the planets on the far side of the Sun. This means that you can add 300 million kilometers to the above distances, and I think you can see that the numbers will drop even more. For example, Jupiter's gravity drops from 0.02 to 0.005, and Venus' tides drop by a factor of 500!

Note again that the Earth still exists. Feel better now? Of course you do. Bad Astronomy, it would seem, has a much stronger influence on our minds than our bodies.




I guess the 4/5 May 2000 when the Earth was completely destroyed by earthquakes caused by the last planetary alignment or maybe it was on 4/5 Feb 1962, look don't worry too much the next time some of the planets are actually in alignment is 25/26 march 2675.

So do planetary aignments cause earthquakes? No.


Edited by Sir BoabTree (19/03/2011 11:16)
_________________________
202mm April 2017
Best 156mm 19/5/17
2017 Total 694mm
2016 Total 649mm
2015 Total 375mm
2014 Total 1032mm
2013 Total 715mm







Top
Page 4 of 20 < 1 2 3 4 5 6 ... 19 20 >


Moderator:  Lindsay Knowles 
Who's Online
10 registered (Hailin, scott12, Lee@Hazo, betsuin, Steve777, Timbuck, StormCapture, Cheers, 2 invisible), 83 Guests and 3 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
caffeinated, Chaser_James, coffeeman, rhyso, Shear-iously
Forum Stats
29343 Members
32 Forums
23661 Topics
1458634 Posts

Max Online: 2925 @ 02/02/2011 22:23
Satellite Image