Page 1 of 7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 >
Topic Options
#988577 - 10/05/2011 19:53 Sea Level Rise
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Loc: Brisbane
Wow no topic on Sea Level. Been a few discussions in the science of AGW thread and I hate multi topic threads that get confusing with multiple issues being discussed at the same time. So here are my responses to some issues from that thread:



Originally Posted By: windyrob
How was the sea level measured 90 years in the future? The observations of sea level clearly show a 3mm/year rise with a slightly decelerating trend. how do you get to more than 30cm/century without climate models? By the way the SLR map shows an obvious ENSO effect so why not post the official global sea level index?

Now please explain to me how the "IPCC estimates are conservative" or "Its worse than we thought" without the use of computer models.
Why your at it, please explain how you know it was AGW that caused sea levels to rise and not the large natural forces such as the 4% decrease in cloud cover that was responsible for at least 75% of the warming during the satellite period!


A comparison of IPCC estimates with actual sea level rise shows these estimates to be too low:



Of course all climate scientists knew they would be too low, even the IPCC who stated that these projections did not include any allowance for dynamic effects of ice sheet melting. It is a bit misleading to talk about sea level rise being worse than expected as some have done recently. It is also misleading to compare rates of sea level rise that the IPCC predicted for the entire next century to sea level rise experienced recently as the IPCC have predicted sea level rise to speed up.


Top
#988579 - 10/05/2011 20:01 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: Mike Hauber]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Loc: Brisbane
Originally Posted By: Southern Oracle


I have a comprehensive understanding of currents . Do you guys ...

A one line answer says you don't .

Any substantial " CHANGE " to SLR ( as you put it) has little to do with AGW . More (atleast) a seasonal , ( atmost ) multi decadel ANOMALIES .

And basicly I will try and sum it up . ( Which I might add is , MHO ) , but thats my point Observations and postulations . Of which I see yourselves doing very little of ( Hence Cut and Paste Gags ). Putting forward these is to add to the angles of inputs and is a contribution , right or wrong is insignificant . And the main crux is to open eyes to further possibilities .

I put forward a position that we have have a Extended Hot Dry Period , Evaporation reaches a saturation point as the lagging Thermal oceanics see a transition to Hot Wet period . These two , Atmosperics/Oceans have many inverse effects and feedbacks that are incremental , have little in the way of fluctuation and tend to be longer served . Eventually the balance is swayed , and we start to see the Atmosphere transfer to a colder transition however the lagging ocean thermal keeps climbing . And with an ever cooling Atmospherics interacting on the still warmer ocean heat content , we see more of a rapid and far more fluctuating transition/mixing towards a Colder Wetter mode .
This will eventually see an equalibrium or a more balanced period after a Cold Dry term or two .
This could sum up AUST's cycle and influences from The PDO / SAM .

Varying currents will be stronger during different periods and we would see these anomalies shown to circle the continent in an anti clockwise direction
( that is of course if its Okay to be Anti - anything ) , and we would see anomalies from typical tidal influences as differing currents / SST anom's work against the typical tidal chokes inherent to our Shoreline topography and subsea bathymetry . These would be inherent during differing phases of said above cycle . It would also be seasonal in respects to certain times of the calender year , and obviously tidal flows would be counteracted at varying times and strengths of each cycles' forced currents . All this is has a strong influence from the soi , IOD and AAO .
As you two have failed to mention actual Atmospheric pressures tending to imbed themselves at certain times throughout all these periods / cycles, this will have a massive impact on SLR . The winds seasonal influence , (and whether the average were above or below )would be far less , with exception of Bass straight as a Prime example of ( Broad wind current affecting tidal choke ) . The winds vary far too much in strength let alone direction through any mean period .

Again there are holes in this . But there's far more content direct from my head than Spatch in particular has added in over 100 posts .
Mike , I have read a bit of and slightly better . Especially in the fact that you were open to comment on something you observed , I like this even if it was a little askew . As it was off the cuff , and further more was actually forwarding part of an opinion . Which seems Foreign from others .

I want to debate this and stand corrected , not smothered in links .......
Please don't blindly throw up links and not actually add to them with insight .
Cheers


I'm not quite sure what you are getting at. It seems obvious that currents and temperature changes and whatever else (gravity effects) would be the explanation for why sea level rises at different rates at different places. Global warming would have nothing to do with this.

At the same time the average sea level is rising, and currents and temperature changes (that balance out) etc can have nothing to do with this rise.

At a guess are you trying to say that the sea level rise anomalies should circle in an anti-clockwise direction, but measurements show them doing something different so the measurements are wrong?

Top
#988621 - 10/05/2011 22:46 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: Mike Hauber]
Southern Oracle Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2011
Loc: Southern Victoria
At different times within the PDO we would see variations in different zones of Australian Continent .

The Clockwise statement was in reference to a personal belief that there are return/feedbacks from ENSO through ITF and around thru to SAM , to put very simply . Of which , I beleive that it has an occurance on alternate PDO cycles . Or even a "Paradiddle Pattern " . ( Its a Drumming Rhythm ). Pretty far fetched , but I don't see anyone else with any idea ....

Mainly to answer your questions , I don't think they have a concise enough grasp of the forcings , and in this case The report that Spatch listed itself mentioned that it was early days ( and was hinting that they wanted more funding ) . [ Note they made a nearly a full page link to AGW - paerhaps to solve their funding problem ?! ]
_________________________
Quote " If you want to save our world, you must hurry. We don't know how much longer we can withstand the nothing. "

Top
#988623 - 10/05/2011 22:55 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: Southern Oracle]
Southern Oracle Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2011
Loc: Southern Victoria


Originally Posted By: Spatch

Go back to my original post where you'll find the links to the graphs. I don't have time right now to discuss your points.

http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthrea...es_a#Post987785




Re: Interesting news articles about AGW [Re: Spatch]
Southern Oracle
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/31/11
Loc: Southern Victoria
Originally Posted By: Spatch
For those still in denial about SLR, the pictures say it all...




http://www.bom.gov.au/ntc/IDO60202/IDO60202.2010.pdf



http://www.aviso.oceanobs.com/en/news/ocean-indicators/mean-sea-level/products-images/



So you couldn't summarise that .....

So Figure 16 has less than Two decades records . Or as pointed out 2/3rds of a typical PDO cycle .!!
They extrapolate that El Nino a lowering effect , but that is the Eastern side only .
Diversions of currents during Nino events through the ITF , will most probably give you these anomalies on the Nth West
coast . Ontop of this the entire Project fails to recognise the IOD ...... Typically Piss Poor . !

In their own words they give example of their inaccuracies , and lack of Total understanding to the Forcings .
But that doesn't stop them writing an entire section Noting AGW as causes to a short period anomaly that they are yet to fully understand .

REF. http://www.bom.gov.au/ntc/IDO60202/IDO60202.2010.pdf

Quote " Although simulations of recent sea level rise (eg 1993 to 2003) are in reasonable agreement with observations, longer-term sea level rise has not been satisfactorily modelled. This implies a deficiency in the current understanding, which is partly related to the poor global coverage of high quality historical tide gauge records and the uncertainty in the corrections for land motions. The high-accuracy sea level stations installed for the ABSLMP will help address these issues in the future. "


And Give further thought to this sentence

Quote " Changes in mean sea level as measured by coastal tide gauges are called “relative sea level changes”, because they can come about either by movement of the land on which the tide gauge is situated or by changes in the height of the adjacent sea surface (both considered with respect to the centre of the Earth as a fixed reference) " .
_________________________
SO EN SO .....
_________________________
Quote " If you want to save our world, you must hurry. We don't know how much longer we can withstand the nothing. "

Top
#988719 - 11/05/2011 11:25 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: Southern Oracle]
windyrob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 2/12/2007
Loc: Hawthorn,Vic, MTD 72mm, YTD 13...
Not much to argue about since the IPCC predictions are flat for the next 20 years. there is no way to see any difference between a continuing recovery from the little ice age or an agw signal

Top
#988835 - 11/05/2011 17:54 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: windyrob]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Loc: Brisbane
The historic sea level rise is about 1.8mm a year (link)

The trend over the last 30 years is about 3mm a year.

Why would the recovery from the little ice age suddenly speed up in the last couple of decades of the 20th century?

Top
#988882 - 11/05/2011 20:28 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: Mike Hauber]
ROM Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2007
Loc: Horsham in western Victoria
Satellite and tidal gauge data are all showing that sea level rise in the last half dozen years has decelerated from about 3 mms / year and now global sea levels are only rising at about an average of 1.7 mms / year.

Top
#988895 - 11/05/2011 20:56 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: ROM]
Vlasta Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/01/2008
Loc: Melbourne Seaford
I would wait for next update . According to Pay TV NG channel the tectonic plate moves by 18mm a year . Before the tsunami it moved by 8 meters .
I assume upwards , thats a lot of water displaced ! 8:30PM sunday a must to watch

Top
#988901 - 11/05/2011 21:08 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: Vlasta]
Spatch Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/01/2011
SLR is steady @ 3.1mm per year.





Top
#988939 - 11/05/2011 22:08 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: Spatch]
ROM Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2007
Loc: Horsham in western Victoria
Was 3.1 mms but not now. Only about 1.7mms now from recent satellite and gauge records as I posted above and the deceleration in SLR over the last few years can be seen in that graph..

Top
#988941 - 11/05/2011 22:09 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: Mike Hauber]
windyrob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 2/12/2007
Loc: Hawthorn,Vic, MTD 72mm, YTD 13...
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
The historic sea level rise is about 1.8mm a year (link)

The trend over the last 30 years is about 3mm a year.

Why would the recovery from the little ice age suddenly speed up in the last couple of decades of the 20th century?

You would expect a bit of up and down due to multi-decadal cycles. which is why there is a slight S shape in the above graph.
Either way there isn't anything close to statistically significant going to come out of this data for a fair while yet.

Top
#988955 - 11/05/2011 22:34 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: Mike Hauber]
windyrob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 2/12/2007
Loc: Hawthorn,Vic, MTD 72mm, YTD 13...
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber


A comparison of IPCC estimates with actual sea level rise shows these estimates to be too low:




This graph is extremely dubious. A 2001 IPCC report prediction that starts at 1990. There was no satellite predictions then so the prediction was based on the highly variable station data that even had negative trends at various times. 2mm/year +/-2mm would be an accurate estimation from that data. The satellite data shows much lower variability and so any base line estimation should be made from that.
A pretty nasty case of splicing metrics if i might say so.

Top
#988973 - 11/05/2011 23:13 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: ROM]
Spatch Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/01/2011
Originally Posted By: ROM
Was 3.1 mms but not now. Only about 1.7mms now from recent satellite and gauge records as I posted above and the deceleration in SLR over the last few years can be seen in that graph..


The overall trend is where it's at, and that is 3.1mm as shown in the graph.

Obviously it will fluctuate up and down as is shown on the graph. But it is the TREND that counts. The trend, my friend, the trend.

Top
#989041 - 12/05/2011 08:29 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: Spatch]
windyrob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 2/12/2007
Loc: Hawthorn,Vic, MTD 72mm, YTD 13...
I agree with the trend, thats why the estimate for sea level rise in the 21st century should be 31cm smile

Top
#989117 - 12/05/2011 13:54 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: windyrob]
ROM Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2007
Loc: Horsham in western Victoria
Another very relevant comment on Sea Level Rise from the "Climate Science" web site of that promoter of "dodgy tricked up articles",[ per spatch] Dr Roger Pielke Sr.

Guest Weblog Post Commentary On ‘Sea Level Rise’ By Madhav Khandekar

Quote:
Khandekar was an Expert Reviewer for the IPCC 2007 climate change documents and his latest contribution to sea level rise is a Chapter (Global warming, glacier melt and future sea level rise) in the Book “Global Warming” published by Sciyo Publishers (Sciyo.com) October 2010.

Quote:
5. The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) in its latest (2007) document has estimated SLR to be between 14 and 41 cm (mean value 29 cm) under the A1B (greenhouse gas) scenario in which earth’s mean temperature is expected to rise between 2.3C and 4.1C over next 100 years. The IPCC 2007 projects SLR due to thermal expansion (steric component) as about 23 cm while the contribution due to melting of glaciers and ice cap (eustatic component) is estimated as about 6 cm over next 100 years

Several recent papers have provided SLR numbers which need to be examined carefully in the context of present debate on global warming and sea level rise. A paper by Holgate (2007, Geophysical Research Letters) analyzed nine long and nearly continuous sea level records over one hundred years ( 1903-2003) and obtained a mean value of SLR as 1.74mm/yr, with higher values in the earlier part of the 20th century compared to the latter part.

A comprehensive paper by Prof (emeritus) Carl Wunsch and co-workers ( J of Climate December 2007) generate over 100 million data points using a 23-layer general circulation ocean model which include different types of data ( salinity, sea surface temperature, satellite altimetry, Argo float profiles etc) and obtain an estimate of SLR as 1.6mm/yr for the period 1993-2004.
A more recent paper by Wenzel & Schroter (Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans 2010) analyzes tide gauge records over a period 1900-2006 and obtains a mean value of 1.56mm/yr with NO statistically significant acceleration in sea level rise.
The latest paper by Houston & Dean (Journal of Coastal Research 2011) carefully analyzes 57 tide gauge records each with a record length of 80 years which include 25 gauges with data from 1930-2010. This study finds no acceleration in sea level rise, but instead a small average deceleration of -0.0014 and -0.0123 mm/yr2.
These latest findings appear to contradict the general perception that sea level rise is escalating at present.



Edited by ROM (12/05/2011 13:58)

Top
#989127 - 12/05/2011 14:36 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: ROM]
ROM Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2007
Loc: Horsham in western Victoria
above Khandekar Sea Level Rise post continued
Quote:
In summary, the estimate of over 1m and higher rise in sea level by 2100 (in next 90 years) seems unrealistic, when analyzed in the context of present sea level rise which is just about 1.5mm to 2.0 mm per year with almost NO component of acceleration. For the global sea level to rise by over 1m in the next 90 years would require acceleration (in sea level rise) of up to 0.28mm/yr2, which is almost two orders of magnitude larger than present. This seems highly unlikely at present given the fact that the earth’s climate has not warmed in the last ten years and further that the earth’s mean temperature seems to be declining at present.

There is a definite need to obtain more realistic estimates of future SLR than what are available at present.

Top
#989356 - 13/05/2011 18:09 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: ROM]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Loc: Brisbane
Funny how the acceleration in sea level rise coincided with a period during which Co2 has caused an acceleration in the warming rate. Obviously not statistically significant and so nothing to worry about....

Top
#989378 - 13/05/2011 21:02 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: Mike Hauber]
Southern Oracle Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2011
Loc: Southern Victoria
Key word/:- Coincided = Coincidence .

As has been concluded exponentially within the last 10-20 years , the Ocean has far more interaction and influence on the Atmosphere than was previously beleived ( unproven ) , and the other way around . Oceanic knowledge is still fledgeling , and accurate measurements on land seem a contentious enough issue in the Atmosphere let alone the can of worms that is about to be uncovered in the
Oceans and its thermal / Co2 Analysis .
To the point that Co2 absorption , storage and release from the Ocean's will be even more hotly debated .

I look forward to empirical data in this regard .
_________________________
Quote " If you want to save our world, you must hurry. We don't know how much longer we can withstand the nothing. "

Top
#989408 - 13/05/2011 23:22 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: Southern Oracle]
Bill Illis Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/07/2010

I know this thread is about recent and projected sea level rise, but some might be interested in sea level in paleohistory. I put together all the estimates at one time.

Sea level depends on:

- the degree of continental ice sheets:
- the degree to which continents are gathered together (when the continents are squeezed together, there is less continental shelf and more mountain building and the average depth of the ocean is lower so sea level is lower);
- the maturity of the ocean basins (younger ocean basins take time to sink in the mantle so the average depth of the ocean can be less when new ocean basins are opening).

Just a curiousity I guess but we have had higher sea level when it was colder and lower sea level when it was hotter. All these geologic processes are still working today.


Top
#989413 - 14/05/2011 00:12 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: Southern Oracle]
ROM Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2007
Loc: Horsham in western Victoria
There could also be another reason for the CO2 increase coinciding with the acceleration of the sea level rise which got under way going back to about 1983 before which in the 1970's there was a sharp decline in sea levels again probably due to the cold negative PDO cycle of the 1950's to 1978 and the loss of ocean heat content and a subsequent contraction of ocean waters with sea level falls during the cold period of the negative PDO which was unmeasureable in those days.

Part of the present sea level rise is due to the increase in the ocean heat content which as Khandekar in his Sea Level Rise paper above gives the IPCC projection of 23 cms rise over the next 100 years due to ocean thermal expansion as ocean heat content builds.
[ Love this complete confidence in forecasting 100 years ahead. Could the old guys in 1910 forecast anything that might exist today let alone how hot or cold it would be? ]
So according to the IPCC we are supposedly looking at [ point ] .23mms / year sea level rise due to thermal expansion as the ocean heats up over the next 100 years.

Now as anybody who reads these forums and others will know, when sea water heats up it releases CO2. Conversely when sea water cools it absorbs CO2.
So we have a situation where the oceans were slowly heating up due to a positive PDO, more and stronger El Ninos therefore less equatorial cloud cover and therefore more long wave solar radiation being absorbed by the equatorial oceans and oceans in general so the Pacific ocean and global oceans in general have heated up, gained heat content since about 1983.
In heating up the oceans would have released vast amounts of CO2, the increase of which which has been measured by various stations such as Cape Grim in Tasmania and Mauna Loa in the Hawaiian islands for all those 30 years of the positive PDO until about 2000.

Now according to the 3000 unit ARGO float system, the ocean heat content buildup has stabilised and is starting to very slowly decline over the last 4 or 5 years and this is coincidental or is it, with the onset of a negative phase of the PDO which really got under way in about 2006 after messing around neutral since the end of the super El Nino in 1999.

And Sea Level Rise has slowed right down as Khandekar and others are reporting and would you believe, the steady increase in measured atmospheric CO2 at Mauna Loa observatory is also showing indications of a slowing down in it 's consistent past rise and even showing signs of flattening out over the last year or so.

So what came first, the anthropogenic CO2 increase of about a 100 ppmv over and above the natural 290 plus ppmv CO2 which 100 ppmv due to it's extra warming effects increased ocean heat content and increased SLR and discharged even more CO2 into the atmosphere, the bootstrap effect which nobody has seen. Or did a very old regular approximately 60 year long cyclic phase of the Pacific ocean plus all it's teleconnections to other oceans and the atmosphere switch over into a warming phase around 1980 and then started to release an increasing amount of CO2 as the ocean warmed.
And now the PDO has switched back to a negative cooling phase, the ocean heat content is starting to fall and the oceans cooling ever so slightly and the release of CO2 from the oceans is slowing as per Mauna Loa's data and the global temperature rise has slowed right down and may even be starting to cool due to the reduced input of solar energy from this weak solar cycle which the increased CO2 supposedly traps and thus warms the joint up.

So what came first, the anthropogenic CO2 to cause this recent global warming or the oceans in a long term natural cycle combined with a couple of very intense solar cycles 22 and 23.
And my bet is that it wasn't caused by the anthropogenic CO2 increase but rather the solar effect combined with a natural cyclic ocean phenomena that has existed since the formation of Panama isthmus closed off the Atlantic ocean from the Pacific ocean.

[ AGW relies on the water vapour increase from very small man made CO2 warming effects creating increased evaporation for much higher levels of atmospheric water vapour as the feed back agent that will kick this global warming thing off it we actually ever get to see some definitive proven empirical evidence that it is actually happening and is due solely to increased CO2, not to some or many combined natural cycles and solar influences.
They seem to have forgotten that it rains ,ie; all that water vapour falls out of the sky all over again when you get a lot of it up there. So it just ain't there to collect all that extra heat energy for CAGW from solar sources when needed by the warmistas. ]

Top
#989786 - 16/05/2011 11:25 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: ROM]
ROM Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2007
Loc: Horsham in western Victoria
From a commenter [ post 16 ] on Jeff Id's "the Air Vent", some interesting data numbers on long term temperature and Sea Level records.

Sources for the temp data is listed under each temp trace
Berlin from 1730
St Petersburg from 1740
Minneapolis / New York from 1820

Some examples of long term Sea Levels from tidal gauges ie; 1854 / San Francisco. 1879 / Fremantle, etc.

Permanent Service for Mean sea Level.[ PSMSL ] > stations SL. [ click ID for stations sea level record ]




Edited by ROM (16/05/2011 11:33)

Top
#989791 - 16/05/2011 11:54 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: ROM]
ROM Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2007
Loc: Horsham in western Victoria
OOPS! Slipped up in not including Temp trace link; here

Do wish that the EDIT function ran to an hour or so!

Top
#997931 - 28/06/2011 14:50 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: ROM]
Sir BoabTree Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 7/02/2007
Loc: Townsville Dry Tropics
Isn't it funny that off all the 'projected' sea level rises flooding certain island nations that none of them have actually gone under yet? Oh hang on a 1.7mm rise per year isn't going to flood anything in the next 100 years now is it? 17cm in 100 years? As i live 18 metres above current sea level i will start worrying in about 10588 years from now - or not.
_________________________
Rain YTD 1235mm May 1mm
Teh WZ Spullin Knig - Dyslexics Untie
Just because you are offended by something I post doesn't always make you right.


Top
#997939 - 28/06/2011 16:09 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: Sir BoabTree]
Jax Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2009
Loc: WA
Noticeable rising sea levels might not be the norm SBT, but some communities are most definitely noticing the changes...


Flooded homes in the village of Taborio on the island of Tarawa. Photo: Justin McManus




Albert Ientau, 60yrs rebuilding his sea wall to protect his home, in the village of Abarao on the island of Tarawa. Photo: Justin McManus



Sea wall, in the village of Eita, on the island of Tarawa. The sea wall has been destroyed by rising tides and is threatening homes. Photo: Justin McManus Link to more pictures here.


Edited by Jax (28/06/2011 16:14)
Edit Reason: To add link

Top
#997950 - 28/06/2011 17:48 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: Jax]
ROM Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2007
Loc: Horsham in western Victoria
The Rising Sea in Kiribati
Quote:
Islands in the South Pacific are susceptible to this activity for a number of reasons. Some islands, such as these atoll islands of Kiribati, rise not much more than 8 or 12 feet above sea level and are composed of easily transported sand sediments. As a result, large cyclones or storm surges can wash over the islands and erode large sections of existing landforms. A rise in sea levels will only magnify these events. With land space already scarce and the large majority of the populations living near the shores, this is a huge problem. Compounding this is the fact that the supply of potable water relies on low and unreliable rainfall or on shallow groundwater lenses. These lenses would then become susceptible to seawater intrusion should sea levels rise. Additionally, with this region being in the "ring of fire," tectonic and volcanic activity is causing some islands to sink and others to rise.

With all these factors providing a convoluted mix of motion in a number of directions, developing a verifiable pattern of activity is going to take the scientific community some time - perhaps as much as 20 years. But for the time being, hard evidence that it is actually happening is hard to come by. Is the recent damage the result of storms that have been enhanced by sea-level rise? Or is it merely the result of large storms that coincidentally have occurred at around the same time?

This lack of certainty has led to skepticism for some. "It's a hoax," says one worker at Tarawa's wharf on the island of Betio. "I would rather forget about it."

His views are not isolated. That is because Kiribati itself is highly isolated and for the average person things like greenhouse gases and sea-level rise take a back seat to concrete things like coconut cultivation and catching tuna.

In looking around Tarawa though this sort of thinking is not at all illogical. Prior to the recent damage, the only evidence of any kind of a disturbance was that which befell the island of Bikeman. After the completion of the Nippon Causeway (Tarawa's longest causeway) in the mid-1980s, the island almost nearly disappeared. "After they built the causeway, it dissolved. It just started getting smaller and smaller," says Rurutaake Etuati, a 38-year old driver living on Tarawa.

The theory is that the construction of the causeway disrupted the rate of water flow and sand deposition patterns between the ocean and the lagoon during the changing high and low tides. As a result, sand was taken from Bikeman and deposited somewhere else within the lagoon. Thus, its disappearance was not the result not of sea-level rise.

Bikeman is an isolated island about 5 miles from Tarawa's coast in the lagoon. In its heyday over 20 years ago, the island was full of coconut trees and residents of Tarawa would go by ferry to the island on weekends for picnics. Today Bikeman is eerie. Its size is about that of a strip mall parking lot. This represents a mere fraction of the original island, whose size once rivaled those on Tarawa's mainland. The island's one remaining feature is a sand shoal that rises perhaps five feet above the lagoon's level at low tide. A steel tripod signaling beacon stands in the island's shallow waters. It used to mark the center of the island. Thousands of broken shells have been deposited on its shore at various tide elevations. There are no coconut trees. There really isn't anything there to speak of. Well, other than a glaring example of how fragile Kiribati's environment is.

Thus far, monitoring results of sea levels have not revealed much. Short-term results from the South Pacific Sea Level and Climate Monitoring Project have shown increases in sea levels for some regions of the South Pacific but have also shown decreases for sea levels in Kiribati. The Project though maintains that such findings are likely due to such disruptions in the ocean-atmosphere system as El Nino and that significant data will only be the result of long-term monitoring. Hence, beneficial information is a long ways off.

Top
#997963 - 28/06/2011 18:50 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: ROM]
ROM Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2007
Loc: Horsham in western Victoria
Some random selections on the sea level tidal gauges from the Kiribati stations. Tarawa is a part of the Kiribati Republic.

More data here ; http://www.psmsl.org/data/obtaining/

http://www.psmsl.org/data/obtaining/stations/1361.php
http://www.psmsl.org/data/obtaining/stations/801.php
http://www.psmsl.org/data/obtaining/stations/575.php

Tide gauge Tarawa

Jonova has an article on a recent research paper on the sea level rises across the Pacific islands; South pacific Sea Levels

Quote:
ABSTRACT
The SEAFRAME sea-level study on 12 Pacific islands is the most comprehensive study of sea level and local climate ever carried out there. The sea level records obtained have all been assessed by the anonymous authors of the official reports as indicating positive trends in sea level over all 12 Pacific Islands involved since the study began in 1993 until the latest report in June 2010. In almost all cases the positive upward trends depend almost exclusively on the depression of the ocean in 1997 and 1998 caused by two tropical cyclones. If these and other similar disturbances are ignored, almost all of the islands have shown negligible change in sea level from 1993 to 2010, particularly after the installation of GPS levelling equipment in 2000.

Top
#997964 - 28/06/2011 18:58 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: ROM]
Keith Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/12/2001
Loc: Kings Langley, NSW
Just another small plug in the gaps..the images above were taken a bit over 18 months ago.

Top
#997965 - 28/06/2011 19:04 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: ROM]
Jax Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2009
Loc: WA
I agree, low lying atolls in the Pacific are fragile at best. However while the debate goes on and time is given for the data to tell any definitive story, these people are watching the ocean apparently rise. I have no intention of entering into this debate, I really just posted in response to this comment: "Isn't it funny that off all the 'projected' sea level rises flooding certain island nations that none of them have actually gone under yet?"

Had to laugh at the Sake-Drenched Postcards by Captain Japan ROM. Not your usual standard of link :B.

Top
#997974 - 28/06/2011 19:55 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: Jax]
Petros Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 30/12/2002
Loc: Inverloch Vic
Originally Posted By: Jax
..... I have no intention of entering into this debate, I really just posted in response to this comment: "Isn't it funny that off all the 'projected' sea level rises flooding certain island nations that none of them have actually gone under yet?"

Had to laugh at the Sake-Drenched Postcards by Captain Japan ROM. Not your usual standard of link :B.



Typical Jax, just typical.

Warmists can grab any unsubstantiated "evidence" they like without peer scrutiny!

Why is it that its only the "deniers" that challenge so obvious cr*p statements/evidence. Just so easy to data check!!!

In true balanced anlysis you would have been gently corrected by your peers.


Edited by Petros (28/06/2011 19:57)

Top
#997981 - 28/06/2011 20:26 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: Petros]
Jax Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2009
Loc: WA
Typical of what? I'm not a "warmist" thanks very much. I'm not swinging either way on this one. All I did was post three pictures that are in complete disagreement with a comment made.

Top
#998143 - 29/06/2011 20:11 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: Jax]
Dustydevil Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/04/2010
Loc: Darwin
Anyone see the news item about the beach at Fraser Island 'vanishing' recently? A sink hole developed. Not due to sea level rise but the sand (ground) falling away into the sea. Ok, not the same thing as wide-scale sea level rise but how does anyone know if it is the sea level that changes or the ground moving? Apparently, Ayer's Rock was under the sea at one stage and now it is in the middle of the desert. Is that because the sea level dropped or because the ground rose? Remember, the Earth's surface is not fixed; continental plates move all the time and the Earth's core is a molten liquid; so how does anyone determine an accurate level to measure changes in sea or ground levels?

Top
#998152 - 29/06/2011 21:16 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: Dustydevil]
mobihci Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 9/05/2009
Loc: Brisbane
this is an interesting post on the sea level rise-

http://www.theresilientearth.com/?q=content/sea-level-shenanigans

there is map in there of the regional variations. some areas are rising, some are sinking-



there is a link to a paper about the sea level changes in the tuvalu, kiribati region. it worth the read. the abstract-

Quote:
Low-lying atoll islands are widely perceived to erode in response to measured and future sea-level rise. Using historical aerial photography and satellite images this study presents the first quantitative analysis of physical changes in 27 atoll islands in the central Pacific over a 19 to 61 yr period. This period of analysis corresponds with instrumental records that show a rate of sea-level rise of 2.0 mm yr− 1 in the Pacific. Results show that 86% of islands remained stable (43%) or increased in area (43%) over the timeframe of analysis. Largest decadal rates of increase in island area range between 0.1 to 5.6 ha. Only 14% of study islands exhibited a net reduction in island area. Despite small net changes in area, islands exhibited larger gross changes. This was expressed as changes in the planform configuration and position of islands on reef platforms. Modes of island change included: ocean shoreline displacement toward the lagoon; lagoon shoreline progradation; and, extension of the ends of elongate islands. Collectively these adjustments represent net lagoonward migration of islands in 65% of cases. Results contradict existing paradigms of island response and have significant implications for the consideration of island stability under ongoing sea-level rise in the central Pacific. First, islands are geomorphologically persistent features on atoll reef platforms and can increase in island area despite sea-level change. Second, islands are dynamic landforms that undergo a range of physical adjustments in responses to changing boundary conditions, of which sea level is just one factor. Third, erosion of island shorelines must be reconsidered in the context of physical adjustments of the entire island shoreline as erosion may be balanced by progradation on other sectors of shorelines. Results indicate that the style and magnitude of geomorphic change will vary between islands. Therefore, island nations must place a high priority on resolving the precise styles and rates of change that will occur over the next century and reconsider the implications for adaption.



http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818110001013

so kiribati and tuvalu are 2 of the ones that actually grew in the period of the analysis. of course that goes against the pictures posted above. the paper acknowledges the sea level rise, but explains how these islands are not just dependent on sea level changes. there is a lot more to it than that. it is obvious that there is redistribution going on there and some probable manmade issues such as groundwater use, but it is not obvious what the cause or solution to the problem is from those pictures. they are just a selling point for some people who own land in the wrong place on the island, and away go the abc and jump on it like it is justification for their crusade against humanity.

Top
#998914 - 4/07/2011 10:10 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: mobihci]
ROM Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2007
Loc: Horsham in western Victoria
From WUWT; Comparisons of the IPCC forecasts for Sea Level Rise and the actual satellite measured Sea Level Rise.


Top
#1008070 - 27/08/2011 07:23 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: ROM]
Vlasta Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/01/2008
Loc: Melbourne Seaford
Wow sea level drops by 6mm in 2010 .
Love the J Willis explanation , no mention how much of this extra water will stay underground especialy in Australia .
Another sad day for warmistas .

http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.cfm?release=2011-262

Top
#1008102 - 27/08/2011 10:59 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: Vlasta]
Sir BoabTree Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 7/02/2007
Loc: Townsville Dry Tropics
Meh, when a harbour master starts telling me he is recording sea level rises I will sit up and take notice. In the mean time only the lowest spots of the ocean (apparently but that would be quite impossible due to physics) are experiencing sea level rises.

Low lying coral atolls have and will continue to be swamped but does it have anything to do with global warming? My answer is no. What the warmistas blindly fail to take into account (or more possibly do take into account but twist the phenomina for their own ends) is that most of these atolls are very low not just low and a combination of higher than average tides as well as lenses of ocean piled up by storm activity sometimes 1000's of klms away will result in an island being swamped. I observed just this in PNG in the early 60's as and again in the 70's and that was a heck of a long time before the warmistas started bleated about global warming.

If you live on an atoll with the average mean height above sea level is less than 2 meters you can expect to get wet feet. It is just one of the reasons that villages traditionally build houses on stilts.
_________________________
Rain YTD 1235mm May 1mm
Teh WZ Spullin Knig - Dyslexics Untie
Just because you are offended by something I post doesn't always make you right.


Top
#1008111 - 27/08/2011 11:40 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: Vlasta]
ROM Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2007
Loc: Horsham in western Victoria
Interesting article there Vlasta.
i have some serious reservations about the claims that evaporation due to the La Nina were totally to blame for the fall in sea levels.

La Nina also is the cause of droughts in other parts of the world so those areas that get heavy rain during El Nino's get to have some drought conditions when La Nina is up and firing and vice versa.
There probably is almost no difference in overall global ocean evaporation rates but there is a redistribution of rainfall to different geographical areas around the planet due to either the El Nino / La Nina phenomena.

The NASA map is striking in that it so clearly shows the massive effect of a Negative IOD on the rainfall in the western two thirds of Australia with La Nina affecting the eastern third and the consequent Neg IOD induced severe drought in East Africa. An item that is never mentioned in the northern hemisphere American / European fixated NASA climate pronouncements although the NASA map does point out where the extra rainfall is supposed to have fallen across Australia and in the very northern parts of the South American continent.

So in my humble opinion all that claimed extra rainfall from all that extra La Nina induced evaporation particularly across Australia wasn't all due to the La Nina and I would hazard a guess that at least a good deal more than 20% of that evaporation from the oceans that was supposed to have fallen as rain on the global land masses was due to the Neg IOD in conjunction with and reinforcing the La Nina effect particularly in Australia's regions.

If the Australian continent's very high rainfall during 2010 and that South American area is taken out of that map and brought down to standard rainfall figures then the rest of the world rainfall distribution and amounts start to look pretty ordinary and standard.

A quick calculation using that 6 mms of sea level fall as being due to extra evaporation and the oceans as covering some 335 million square kilometres, then the total amount of extra evaporated ocean water is equivalent to some 200 cubic kilometres of water, all of which is supposed to have fallen on land.
Any evaporated water that falls again into the oceans of course has no effect on the sea levels.

So lets do some very rough calculations.
Australia covers close to 7,700,000 square kilometres. Then from the NASA map we have that South American very high rainfall area which probably is about 25 % of Australia's area.
So combined the two areas of very high 2010 rainfall would amount to some 10 million square kilometres.

Now using that 200 cubic kilometres of extra evaporated water from that 6 mm fall in sea levels over the 335 million square kilometres of ocean then a simple calculation shows that assuming the rest of the world's rainfall distribution was pretty standard, Australia in it's entirety and that northern South American region combined would have had to receive a total extra 200 millimetres of rainfall during the La Nina episode, over every square kilometer of all that combined territory to account for that 200 cubic kilometres of extra ocean evaporation due to the 6 mm fall in sea levels if we are to believe Josh Willis from NASA.

Looking at the Australian rainfall anomaly map for the last 12 months and it is possible but I would have some very serious reservations on that claim.
We will just wait and see if there is a recovery in sea levels over the next year or so. And which ever way it goes it will still raise all sorts of questions on what was previously a set in concrete global warming claim on rising sea levels.

And to check on those [ non! ] rising/ falling sea levels;

Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level Just click on the station number for the Tide Gauge readings.
Remarkable how small most of those sea level rises if at all, have been over the last third of a century.

Top
#1008114 - 27/08/2011 12:03 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: ROM]
PeterDuke Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/06/2011
Loc: Yetholme [1180m] Central Table...
Yes that is interesting about that fall in sea level from La Nina, its not just the rainfall on land where the water went but also the expansion/contraction of ocean water due to temperature. The area of cold ocean was noticeably lower. You can also see that 1998 rise in sea level from warm expansion.

ROM that extra 200mm is not far of the truth though for Australia. Of course there will be other smaller parts of the world where there may have been more rainfall. I think the USA also had an awful lot of water over the Mississippi during this La Nina, maybe for unconnected reasons.

It still amazes me how they can calculate sea level given the waves and storms currents etc. Must be an average of many readings over days to get to that accuracy. Must be a lot of buoys as well.

Top
#1008815 - 30/08/2011 13:56 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: PeterDuke]
Sir BoabTree Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 7/02/2007
Loc: Townsville Dry Tropics
They are using satelitte technology to measure average sea levels which basically means a wild ass guess is about as close as they can possibly get. And who cares really it's only 6mm so who is going to prove them wrong?
_________________________
Rain YTD 1235mm May 1mm
Teh WZ Spullin Knig - Dyslexics Untie
Just because you are offended by something I post doesn't always make you right.


Top
#1009113 - 30/08/2011 23:38 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: Sir BoabTree]
Vlasta Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/01/2008
Loc: Melbourne Seaford
Well PD and Sir , not far from the truth .
On this site one can monitor sea levels updated every month .
http://sealevel.colorado.edu/
One has to be nerdy like me to pick up the 'small print '
On that site you find comment .

We do calibrate the altimeter measurments against a network tide gauges , bla bla bla
Well I say you cant , everything moves up or down due to tectonic activity .
Its under the same person command J Willis , who few years ago ' solved 'the cooling of buoys by eliminating the ones which where showing cooling and letting in those showing warming
Well , when I look at the graph I see 10 mm , I could be wrong , he he

Top
#1009331 - 1/09/2011 11:08 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: Vlasta]
PeterDuke Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/06/2011
Loc: Yetholme [1180m] Central Table...
I had a look at the tide gauge data for a fairly reliable stable long term tide gauge in Australia, Port Kembla. And you can drop the data yourself into a spread sheet and do some average lines through it and you get a pretty good trend of 6cm over 20 years, and low and behold that is 3mm/year. Its not a constant rise by any means, biggest rise around 1998 in the big El Nino then easing in the early 2000's but then a gradual but slower rise since then. Time will tell how that will rise in the future, but its there for all to see. Even when you look carefully at the PDF that has all the data on a meter scale it does not take much to notice a trend up.

Monthly sea levels for PORT KEMBLA
http://www.bom.gov.au/ntc/IDO71053/IDO71053SLI.pdf
http://www.bom.gov.au/ntc/IDO71053/IDO71053SLD.txt

Top
#1009333 - 1/09/2011 11:33 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: PeterDuke]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Loc: Brisbane
Sounds about right Peter. My issue is that we have seen no acceleration whatsoever of sea level rises over the past 30-40 years. The average as you pointed out over that time is 3mm per year which matches the rate seen over the century and a half leading into the 70's.

Therefore risng global temps have not accelerated the rate of sea level rise during the period for which AGW is purported to be a factor. For me this is about what I expect given temperatures have been rising for the past 200 years or so and the rate of increase in the past 30 years has not outstripped increases seen in the first part of the twentieth century.

I know you've previously suggested that the real boogeyman in the closet is the Greenland ice sheet but the science regarding the impact of rising temps on the ice sheet is far from settled and even the worst case scenarios indicate it will be hundreds of years before it becomes a major factor. Whilst the rate of melt has been accelerating in recent years this is not entirely related to rising temps. Soot from diesel engines has been identified as a significant factor also (it can be seen aggregating at the bottom of the melt ponds). Certainly at the current rate it will be thousands of years before the sheet becomes an important factor in sea level rise. Most of the doomsday scenarios for it's "collapse" are still just theories and a long way from being scientifically proven.

Top
#1009343 - 1/09/2011 12:26 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: Locke]
PeterDuke Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/06/2011
Loc: Yetholme [1180m] Central Table...
Locke, quite right it is a slow and gradual process with the sea level rise. Although with the Greenland ice sheet I think it may be a matter of hundreds rather than 1000's of years before a significant part of it may melt. By significant I mean maybe 20-30%.

Cannot wait to see what happens to sea level in the next El Nino. Will be interesting to see if an acceleration in sea level rise will occur in that period, if it happens it will certainly prove that the sea level observations are being made accurately. If not then that would really raise some questions about what is going on with the climate if no observation error was made.

Top
#1009345 - 1/09/2011 12:42 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: Locke]
Vlasta Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/01/2008
Loc: Melbourne Seaford
Where do you see 20cm , or 3mm a year rise at the gauge ?
What I see , sea level is lower now than in 1991 .

Top
#1009346 - 1/09/2011 12:45 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: PeterDuke]
Brett Guy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 5/10/2010
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Could someone please enlighten me as to how a melting ice sheet could possibly have any effect on sea levels. Doesn't an ice sheet float on the ocean? If that is the case then shouldn't it displace roughly the same amount of water that it contains? If that is the case then when it melts it will have no bloody effect whatsoever. If the ice sheet is not floating then I am wrong and please ignore this entire post!

Top
#1009347 - 1/09/2011 12:47 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: PeterDuke]
DaveM Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/05/2001
Loc: Bathurst NSW Australia
Re Sea Level measurement - I think my memory tells me that the Port Arthur Site (Tassie) has measured sea levels on the "Isle of the Dead" since it was first colonized. Pretty sure they said it was the oldest continuous sea level measurement site in Australia. Might be worth a look.

Top
#1009351 - 1/09/2011 13:11 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: DaveM]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Loc: Brisbane
Brett, as the Greenland ice sheet sits on top of solid ground. It is not floating on the ocean. It is up to 2.5km thick in places and contains absolutely massive quantities of fresh water.

The rate of loss of the sheet is in the order of cm per year. I understand the theory that water undercutting the sheet will accelerate the rate of loss but I'd like to see a little more evidence of this occurring to support the theory than what is currently being observed. Whilst a big chunk of ice calved off the Petermann glacier last year this was by no mean unprecedented with a larger chunk having broken off back in 1962.

At the moment the collapse of the Greenland ice sheet remains a theory, hugely dependent upon a number of unknown factors some of which are outside of the realms of AGW theory.

Top
#1009352 - 1/09/2011 13:13 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: DaveM]
Keith Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/12/2001
Loc: Kings Langley, NSW
Brett, much of the discussion in the science about ice relates to ice that sits on land masses, including glaciers and of course the ice on top of Antarctica. If it all melted suddenly the world would be flooded.

Sea ice behaves as you say; it displaces 8/9ths of its volume of water so if it should melt, things would pretty well even themselves out as far as the sealevels go.

Top
#1009356 - 1/09/2011 14:01 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: Keith]
PeterDuke Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/06/2011
Loc: Yetholme [1180m] Central Table...
Vlasta, all the gauges are here with raw monthly data since about 1991. Its 6cm over 20 years which is 3mm/year.
http://www.bom.gov.au/oceanography/projects/abslmp/data/monthly.shtml

DaveM, I had a look at Spring Bay in Tassie and its also 6cm quite surprisingly although there the rise is much more consistent than Port Kembla with a much weaker ESNO signal. Tassie surprises me since I thought there was still some uplift there. But I guess the sea level change is faster than the tectonics.

I ran a mean over the readings of 4 or 5 years to see the trend more easily. Just a matter of opening the text data in Excel and plotting. You can get an exact linear regression value if you wanted.

Top
#1009403 - 1/09/2011 18:18 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: PeterDuke]
Simmosturf Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/03/2008
Loc: Wangaratta
Haven't I seen old maps where Tasmania and Papua New Guinea where a part of the Australian land mass or am I mistaken? Because if this is the case, sea levels have been rising for a hell of a long time!!!!!


Edited by Simmosturf (1/09/2011 18:27)

Top
#1012836 - 18/09/2011 12:46 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: Simmosturf]
ROM Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2007
Loc: Horsham in western Victoria
For your info Simmo. From Wikipedia ; Prehistory of Australia



There is also a pic of the vast areas through what is now Indonesia, around PNG and across the present Torres Strait that were land bridges during a time when the sea levels were 150 metres below the present levels.

The following satellite based sea level graphs is from the official AVISO site.
The very rapid downturn from a monotonic sea level rise of 3.2 mm / year going back to 1993 to a overall substantial and rapid mean global rapid sea level fall over the last year is striking.
These short term rises and falls are believed to be linked to the upper ocean heat content. Rising heat content; ie warming ocean temperatures lead to expansion of the ocean waters and therefore possibly account for most of the sea level rise.
Now with the 3000 unit global ocean wide ARGO float system data showing no warming; ie no increase in the ocean heat content in the oceans since about 2002 / 3 and then the 1998 La Nina and now the 2010/ 11 La Nina, ocean heat content is being lost ; ie cooling of the upper levels of the global oceans and therefore a contraction of the ocean waters and a falling sea level, both rapid and substantial in the last 12 months.

A couple of points from the graphs below.
The very strong El Nino of 1998 does not appear to have much impact at all on the sea levels. Certainly no rises in sea levels due to expanding ocean waters with increased heat content is seen in 1998 on the graphs.
The 2008 La Nina had some impact ie a small and short lived 12 to 18 month fall before a full recovery in the formerly monotonic sea level rise was resumed.
But the real kicker is the very large, marked and continuing fall in sea levels since early 2010 which from the previous ENSO phase effects on the global sea levels seems to be much more severe than can be explained by just the 2010 /11 La Nina.
There may be other unknown or poorly researched processes at work here on the global sea levels and it doesn't seem likely that the monotonic rise in sea levels that is claimed by the warmistas, like so many other claims and predictions they have made over the last decade and a half, will ever be even close to what actually happens in the real world.
Quote:
Mean Sea Level rise
The global mean level of the oceans is one of the most important indicators of climate change. It incorporates the reactions from several different components of the climate system. Precise monitoring of changes in the mean level of the oceans, particularly through the use of altimetry satellites, is vitally important, for understanding not just the climate but also the socioeconomic consequences of any rise in sea level.

With the satellite altimetry missions, the global mean sea level (GMSL) has been calculated on a continual basis since January 1993. 'Verification' phases, during which the satellites follow each other in close succession (Topex/Poseidon--Jason-1, then Jason-1--Jason-2), help to link up these different missions by precisely determining any bias between them. Envisat, ERS-1 and ERS-2 are also used, after being adjusted on these reference missions, in order to compute Mean Sea Level at high latitudes (higher than 66°N and S), and also to improve spatial resolution by combining all these missions together. In addition, permanent monitoring of quality during the missions (Calval) and studies of the necessary corrections of altimetry data regularly add to our understanding and knowledge (see the Processing and corrections applied to each mission to obtain the reference mean sea level).


A composite of the different satellite sea level measuring technologies.


The graphs below are the results from the different in sea level measuring satellite technologies.

Top
#1013002 - 19/09/2011 11:03 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: ROM]
Simmosturf Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/03/2008
Loc: Wangaratta
Thank you Rom... Very informative....

Top
#1032652 - 20/11/2011 14:19 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: Simmosturf]
Vlasta Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/01/2008
Loc: Melbourne Seaford
This article I took from S Goddard blog . Thats exactly what I thought when there was6mm drop .
On the other hand warmistas claim , glaciers loss of ice last century was 2000 cubic miles . For god sake , where is the water then ?

http://www.eoearth.org/article/Aquifer_depletion

Top
#1032832 - 21/11/2011 00:32 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: Vlasta]
Bill Illis Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/07/2010

The ENSO leaves a signal in sea level. It takes a few steps to see how this occurs.

During a La Nina, more precipitation occurs as water vapour is being drawn out of the cooling atmosphere (-1.0 mm) / falling as precipitation. Water vapour cycles through the atmosphere 40 times per year so during a La Nina, as much as 5 mms of precipitation accumulates on the Land (not making it back to Oceans) and sea level falls by the 5 mms.

During an El Nino, the opposite happens and as much as 5 mms gets evaporated off the Land to fall (with the 40 times per year cycling through) as rain on the Ocean. Sea level goes up.

Its a little counter-intutitive but this is what happens.

------

Regarding the long-term sea level. Southern Greenland is too far south to have continental glaciers if an interglacial lasts for 20,000 years or so. The southern Greenland glaciers are farther south than Finland, which gets to 25C in the summer.

Southern Greenland has glaciers because northern Greenland has 3 km high glaciers and there were 4 km high glaciers there in the ice ages. Sea level will continue rising as southern Greenland continues to melt out until the next ice age starts up.

During the interglacial 400,000 years ago, which lasted about 23,000 years, the southern third of Greenland melted to the surface and small trees even grew there. During the last interglacial, the Eemian 100,000 years ago, the interglacial lasted about 15,000 years and Greenland was up to 5C warmer than today. But this was not enough time to melt out the southern glaciers. It takes a long time to overcome the thermal inertia of all that ice, next to 3 kms of more ice.

Top
#1032839 - 21/11/2011 01:35 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: Bill Illis]
Vlasta Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/01/2008
Loc: Melbourne Seaford
I didnt make my self clear .
That article points out , how much ground water has been extracted and not being able to be replanished .
As population rise demand for water increases . That alone I would account for half sea level rises till now .
Quick look at VIC storages , there is 6 cubic km more water locked in , than 2 years ago . Thats only Victoria .
2-3 years ago Perth Brisbane were in water crisis .
How many more cubic km of water is locked up or seeped to ground . Your guess is good as mine . But its a lot .
I think , once ground water in some countries is gone , sea levels will stop rising that fast .

Top
#1040340 - 9/12/2011 20:40 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: Vlasta]
Arnost Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/02/2007
Loc: Just a bit north of the "coath...
_________________________
Exceptions are pernicious, they conceal laws...

Top
#1040342 - 9/12/2011 20:43 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: Arnost]
Arnost Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/02/2007
Loc: Just a bit north of the "coath...
The “authorative” BoM Pacific Country Report on Tuvalu doc from 2006 has this to say with respect to Tuvalu.
Quote:
The sea level trend to date is +6.4 mm/year but the magnitude of the trend continues to vary widely from month to month as the data set grows. Accounting for the precise levelling results and inverted barometric pressure effect, the trend is +5.7 mm/year. A nearby gauge, with a longer record but less precision and datum control, shows a trend of +0.9 mm/year.




From this has stemmed the meme that the islands are drowning – and we see pictures like the one linked above.

Good old John Daly, may he RIP, he still has valuable contributions to make!

This graph apparently is from the Adelaide based National Tidal Facility news release "Sea Level in Tuvalu: It's Present State". Reference to this can be found on this John Daly page . The link to this article is now no longer valid…

If you overlay the two graphs – the one from John Daly’s site and the one from the “authorative” 2006 report, you get this:

There is some mucking about with scales – but almost a perfect match across the coincident years (they are offset a bit to make this clear).

If you then have a look at what the Sea Level did recently:

http://www.bom.gov.au/ntc/IDO70056/IDO70056SLI.pdf

Then there really is bugger all increase. There is like no way that the King Tide floods are just a feature of the recent period. There has been nothing like a 6.4mm/year raise in max sea level (from 1978 to 2011 – some 33 years – at that rate the increase would have been over 20 cm).
_________________________
Exceptions are pernicious, they conceal laws...

Top
#1040351 - 9/12/2011 21:15 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: Arnost]
Petros Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 30/12/2002
Loc: Inverloch Vic
I posted a BOM reference that claimed a greater present sea level rise at Sydney than they posted for WA at the same time - several months ago. Do not believe sea level figures progged by the (now-dimishing) Global Warmists/Alarmists.

Our BOM? - its well and truly playing the cash hand out game. Type in Climategate 2.0 to any search engine and filter for Aust BOM posts - I was shocked (to see my own suspicions confirmed in an instant)!

Top
#1040363 - 9/12/2011 21:55 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: Petros]
Simmosturf Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/03/2008
Loc: Wangaratta
The ABC are a joke... just like the Government... Hang on!! Who owns the ABC??

Top
#1076466 - 15/02/2012 11:09 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: Simmosturf]
ROM Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2007
Loc: Horsham in western Victoria
From WUWT; Sea level still not cooperating with predictions
Quote:
The university of Colorado has recently updated their sea level graph from the TOPEX satellite data. The 60 month smoothed trend is still stalled and shows no rise over what was seen since the peak in mid 2010:

&
Here’s the same data with season variation retained, but the really interesting data is from ENVISAT, which shows no upward trend:

Sea level is lower than eight years ago, and according to the graph above just passed the lowest annual peak in the Envisat record.

It’s damned inconvenient.




Plus the leveling off in the ocean heat content shown in Bill Illis's "Ocean Heat content" graph in Science in AGW thread.

The plateauing of the global temperature rise since 2006 and now showing signs of a very slowly developing decline in global temperatures.

The unforecast solar activity slow down plus the dramatic decline in solar UV output and the collapse of the solar magnetic field strength.

The switch in the PDO phase to a cooler negative phase plus it's accompanying increase in La Ninas and lower incidence of El Ninos.

The change in the AMO to a cooler phase.

The slow down in the rise in global CO2 increases possibly due to less em-missions from oceans that are no longer warming.

Himalayan Glaciers that are not retreating en masse but are about stationary in total ice mass.

Arctic Sea ice now showing signs of having been through it's low cycle point and starting to indicate a yearly increase from now on..

Antarctic ice fields expanding and etc and etc.

NONE of which were forecast by the IPCC's climate models.

Top
#1082223 - 28/02/2012 11:54 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: ROM]
George M Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 25/02/2012
The WUWT article, “Sea Level is not cooperating with the predictions”, Feb 14 2012, is out of sync with the latest research paper on this issue. Recent contributions of glaciers and ice caps to sea level rise by Jacob, Wahr, Pfeffer and Swenson, Nature, 8 February 2012
This paper is covered in the YouTube video: Himalaya Glaciers – “No Melt in 10 Years” The video, produced by a “warmist”, shows screen captures of the research paper in question, but should be referenced against the Jacob, et al, research paper for which the abstract reads:
'Glaciers and ice caps (GICs) are important contributors to present-day global mean sea level rise1, 2, 3, 4. Most previous global mass balance estimates for GICs rely on extrapolation of sparse mass balance measurements1, 2, 4 representing only a small fraction of the GIC area, leaving their overall contribution to sea level rise unclear. Here we show that GICs, excluding the Greenland and Antarctic peripheral GICs, lost mass at a rate of 148 ± 30 Gt/yr from January 2003 to December 2010, contributing 0.41 ± 0.08 mm/yr to sea level rise. Our results are based on a global, simultaneous inversion of monthly GRACE-derived satellite gravity fields, from which we calculate the mass change over all ice-covered regions greater in area than 100 sq. km. The GIC rate for 2003–2010 is about 30 per cent smaller than the previous mass balance estimate that most closely matches our study period2.
The high mountains of Asia, in particular, show a mass loss of only 4 ± 20 Gt/yr for 2003–2010, compared with 47–55 Gt/yr in previously published estimates. For completeness, we also estimate that the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, including their peripheral GICs, contributed 1.06 ± 0.19 mm/yr to sea level rise over the same time period. The total contribution to sea level rise from all ice-covered regions is thus 1.48 ± 0.26 mm/yr, which agrees well with independent estimates of sea level rise originating from land ice loss and other terrestrial sources6.'
[url= http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nature10847.html]Recent contributions of glaciers and ice caps to sea level rise[/url]
To avoid paying the $US 32.00 to read the full article, the issue of the Himalayan Glaciers not melting as fast can be put in context with a post on 25 February, 2012 at the following link:: GRACE and glaciers . It may pay to check because the SkepticalScience website is a “warmist” site although, in the same genre, WUWT is a “coldist” site.
Here is the SkepticalScience post:
'Satellites find over 500 billion tons of land ice melting worldwide every year, headlines focus on Himalayas.
The GRACE program is a triumph of our technology – a pair of satellites nicknamed ‘Tom’ and ‘Jerry’ that act like a pair of scales for the Earth below them. They have weighed Australia getting heavier as floodwaters rose, the Earth getting fatter thanks to ice cap melt, and the drying up of Texan water supplies.
Now scientists have produced the first global map of change in the mass of land ice on Earth for 2003-2010 (Jacob et al, 2012), see it in all its glory in Figure 1. Unfortunately the resolution of the GRACE satellites means they can't reliably measure ice areas smaller than 100 km2 (almost 40 square miles), so these are not included in the study.

[
Figure 1 - Map of changes in ice thickness estimated by Jacob et al. Blue means losing ice and red means gaining ice. Changes in geology and groundwater have been accounted for (supplementary information). The red spot in Africa is an artifact. The units are 'centimetres of water equivalent per year': the change in water thickness that would be needed to cause the measured mass change.

Biggest ice sheets: melting faster than 2007 UN figures, no surprise there!
The first things that jump out at you are probably the big blue areas around Greenland and Antarctica. The new results are similar to those already covered at skepticalscience, such as Garder et al, 2011's work on Baffin & Ellesmere islands, plus other measurements of Greenland and Antarctica. It's no longer news that the 2007 UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) computer simulations were far below what has happened.
Greenland and Antarctica have lost almost 400 billion tons of ice every year according to these measurements, twice the loss expected from all the world's other glaciers. This helps to explain why sea levels are rising at the high end of IPCC expectations.


Figure 2 - tide gauges (red), satellite measurements of sea level (blue) and IPCC computer model expectations (grey area) from Allison et al, 2009.
Worldwide glaciers mostly in retreat - down 1.2 trillion tons in 8 years
For the first time, entire mountain ranges of glaciers have been weighed. There are at least 160,000 glaciers worldwide and in the World Glacier Monitoring Service's last update only 136 were weighed. Thousands have been pictured by satellites (e.g. Le Bris et al, 2011, Paul & Svoboda, 2011, Narozhney & Zemtsov, 2011) and found to be mostly shrinking in area, but photos can't measure thickness and therefore total weight.
GRACE shows about 150 billion tons a year of glacier melt which is actually less than some expected. It seems that glaciers in the high mountains of Central Asia (around the Himalayas) only lost about 4±20 billion tons of ice a year. Previous work expected closer to 50 billion tons of loss.

The big picture
We now have the first global map of glacier weight change. The ice sheets are doing much worse than 2007 predictions and glaciers in most of the world are doing just as badly as thought. However, glaciers in the high mountains of Central Asia appear to have been stable for 8 years when old measurements would have expected 400 billion tons of ice loss. Meanwhile, over 4.2 trillion tons of ice have melted worldwide over 8 years.
2003-2010 is a short time though, so it's too soon to say anything about what will happen next here.
Seas are rising faster than computer simulations had expected, and these simulations are also lower and slower than has happened in the past (Vermeer & Rahmstorf, 2009). It's possible that the simulations didn't properly include the processes that shrink ice sheets so these results are consistent with faster future sea level rise. Figure 4 shows that the rate of melt in the big ice sheets is much larger than the swings caused by seasonal weather and the long term trend is obvious.


Figure 4 - Change in the ice mass of Greenland (blue) and Antarctica (orange). Notice how the trend is much larger than seasonal changes, and how each vertical dash is now 200 billion tons.

The good news is that the highest mountains in Asia seem to be almost 50 billion tons a year better off than expected. But this is small change next to the 500 billion tons a year being lost elsewhere.'


Coincidently, the WUWT article, “Sea Level is not cooperating with the predictions”, Feb 14 2012, is out of sync with NASA Satellites Detect Pothole on Road to Higher Seas Aug 23 2011 which concludes “While most years have recorded a rise in global sea level, the recent drop of nearly a quarter of an inch, or half a centimeter, is attributable to the switch from El Nińo to La Nińa conditions in the Pacific. WUWT did a full report on this NASA update but dismissed it because it had no numbers attached.



An Update from NASA's Sea Level Sentinels:
'Like mercury in a thermometer, ocean waters expand as they warm. This, along with melting glaciers and ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica, drives sea levels higher over the long term. For the past 18 years, the U.S./French Jason-1, Jason-2 and Topex/Poseidon spacecraft have been monitoring the gradual rise of the world's ocean in response to global warming.
While the rise of the global ocean has been remarkably steady for most of this time, every once in a while, sea level rise hits a speed bump. This past year, it's been more like a pothole: between last summer and this one, global sea level actually fell by about a quarter of an inch, or half a centimeter.
Climate scientist Josh Willis of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif., says that while 2010 began with a sizable El Nińo, by year's end, it was replaced by one of the strongest La Nińas in recent memory. This sudden shift in the Pacific changed rainfall patterns all across the globe, bringing massive floods to places like Australia and the Amazon basin, and drought to the southern United States.
So where does all that extra water in Brazil and Australia come from? You guessed it--the ocean. Each year, huge amounts of water are evaporated from the ocean. While most of it falls right back into the ocean as rain, some of it falls over land. "This year, the continents got an extra dose of rain, so much so that global sea levels actually fell over most of the last year," says Carmen Boening, a JPL oceanographer and climate scientist. Boening and colleagues presented these results recently at the annual Grace Science Team Meeting in Austin, Texas.
But for those who might argue that these data show us entering a long-term period of decline in global sea level, Willis cautions that sea level drops such as this one cannot last, and over the long-run, the trend remains solidly up. Water flows downhill, and the extra rain will eventually find its way back to the sea. When it does, global sea level will rise again.'

Top
#1082322 - 28/02/2012 14:57 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: George M]
bd bucketingdown Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 7/02/2008
Loc: Eastern A/Hills SA
Few topic questions and mutterings:
1.What happens to all the water that we extract from the ground each year over the earth it must amount to a large volume, and we have not extracted anywhere near in the past what we do extract these days? It must go somewhere, no one seems to ever mention it?!
2. Melt from the last ice age continues and will continue for some time till equalibrium melt point is reached so no surprise that melting continues, even though the temp has flattened out in last 15 years.
3. re the comment "Climate scientist Josh Willis of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif., says that while 2010 began with a sizable El Nińo, by year's end, it was replaced by one of the strongest La Nińas in recent memory. This sudden shift in the Pacific changed rainfall patterns all across the globe, bringing massive floods to places like Australia and the Amazon basin, and drought to the southern United States.
So where does all that extra water in Brazil and Australia come from? You guessed it--the ocean. Each year, huge amounts of water are evaporated from the ocean. While most of it falls right back into the ocean as rain, some of it falls over land. "This year, the continents got an extra dose of rain, so much so that global sea levels actually fell over most of the last year," says Carmen Boening, a JPL oceanographer and climate scientist. Boening and colleagues presented these results recently at the annual Grace Science Team Meeting in Austin, Texas.
But for those who might argue that these data show us entering a long-term period of decline in global sea level, Willis cautions that sea level drops such as this one cannot last, and over the long-run, the trend remains solidly up. Water flows downhill, and the extra rain will eventually find its way back to the sea. When it does, global sea level will rise again.'"
well show me where there is less total rain in the world during El Ninos and more rain total in the world during La Ninas from the global rainfall graph shown...It does not look like that to me anyway?

Top
#1082468 - 28/02/2012 19:07 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: bd bucketingdown]
Dustydevil Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/04/2010
Loc: Darwin
If you were an astronaut sitting on the moon and looking back at Earth and had equipment that could ‘see’ or measure all the water on Earth, you would find that the total amount NEVER changes. Water keeps going around in a cycle; it exists in 3 states; liquid (water), solid (ice) and gas (water vapour). The ratios of these states change all the time but the total amount NEVER does. Water is simply moving around the Earth and when it isn’t where you are, it is somewhere else. It really is that simple. A flood somewhere means a drought somewhere else. Have a look at this web site for a good explanation of how much water there is on Earth http://ga.water.usgs.gov/edu/earthhowmuch.html

Another interesting point is that water is constantly being moved from one location to another. Ice caps and glaciers melt but the water is not ‘gone’ forever. As the human population expands, there is more water in humans and that water has to come from somewhere else (and it doesn’t go back if the population keeps growing). Try this web site for more info http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Body_water

I also wonder about the accuracy of sea level gauges; how can we be sure they are absolutely fixed and not moving? We know the Earth’s surface is constantly moving (albeit slowly) because of Earthquakes and other such activity, so can we be absolutely sure the data points are fixed? I don’t believe so. Anyway, another thing I’ve never seen anyone take into account, is the effect of ocean ‘gyres’ on sea level. Have a look at this site for more info http://eros.eas.gatech.edu/npgo/ Basically, a gyre is like a pimple on the ocean’s surface with a rise in the middle. How can we be sure that the sea level measurements are not affected by the actions of the rises associated with these moving gyres?

I think the bottom line is, that no matter how much the alarmists cry about sea level rise, it can only rise so much since there is a FIXED amount of water available on the Earth. Simple physics can show that the sea can only rise so far no matter what the temperature might rise to. If you think it can keep rising ad infinitum, where do you think that extra NEW water is going to come from?

That astronaut looking back at the Earth can not see any NEW water arriving on Earth from any other source and nor can she/he see any water leaving Earth. The total amount of water NEVER changes.

Top
#1082504 - 28/02/2012 20:23 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: Dustydevil]
Vlasta Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/01/2008
Loc: Melbourne Seaford
I did mention about extracting water before BD , past two years ground water is being replenished in Australia .
Not all water is gonna end up back in the oceans that quickly dear J willis .
There wouldnt be a tsunami without sea floor raising , a 1sq km not a big deal for tectonic activity .

I plead with ROM to expect his springs next 6 monts , my money is on , they will flow .
Lately a huge underground river was discovered under the amazon .
God knows how much water we can store underground .


Edited by Vlasta (28/02/2012 20:25)

Top
#1082510 - 28/02/2012 20:33 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: Vlasta]
ROM Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2007
Loc: Horsham in western Victoria
Just for you, Vlasta grin

Huge 'Ocean' Discovered Inside Earth

Quote:
Scientists scanning the deep interior of Earth have found evidence of a vast water reservoir beneath eastern Asia that is at least the volume of the Arctic Ocean.

Top
#1082534 - 28/02/2012 21:45 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: ROM]
ROM Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2007
Loc: Horsham in western Victoria
The easy read version and then the paper'

Global ground water depletion and global sea level rise

Contribution of global groundwater depletion since 1900 to sea‐level rise

Quote:
The U.S. Geological Survey researcher reports that groundwater depletion over the period 1900-2008 was about 4,500 km3, which is equivalent to a global sea-level rise of 12.6 mm, or just over 6% of the total observed rise. In addition, he notes that the rate of groundwater depletion has increased markedly since about 1950, with maximum rates occurring during the most recent period (2000-2008), when it averaged ~145 km3/year.
As for sea level rise, Konikow notes that the average rate of rise over the 20th century was 1.7 ± 0.5 mm/year; but he adds that the rate may have accelerated in recent years, citing the work of Church and White (2006), Bindoff et al. (2007) and Lettenmaier and Milly (2009). Over the period 1961-2003, for example, he reports that the average rate of sea level rise was 1.8 ± 0.5 mm/year, as does Church et al. (2011). Over the period 1993-2003, however, Konikow notes that Bindoff et al. (2007) have mean global sea level rising by an estimated rate of 3.1 ± 0.7 mm/year; but Church et al. (2011) indicate that the latter researchers likely overestimated the upper-ocean thermosteric component of the global sea level rise in obtaining such a large result


Some interesting data there in that the IPCC and the sea level alarmists never mention that according to the USGS, a pretty well known division of the US Earth sciences, that the sea level rise over the 20th century was only 1.7 mms per year.
The figure of 3.1 mms / year is the number that is always used to claim that Sea Level rises are accelerating. Some sources do admit that SL rises have slowed down to about 1.7 mms / year over the last two years but from the USGS data, the changes in SL 's are far more variable than the IPCC and it's assorted climate alarmists seem to ever be prepared to admit.

Of course if there is no problem then there is no reason for the government funding authorities to make further [ tax payer funded ] grants to study the situation.

I had some quite serious reservations about the claims that most of this climate research with it's constant grossly alarmist refrain was just a means of ensuring that the funding grants would just keep right on rolling in.
Well I have come around to the conclusion now that most of this damnable climate alarmism from most of these so called scientists has become a massive rip off of the tax payer and a very comfortable sinecure for every scamming third rate, no conscience, so called "scientist" involved in the so called global warming / climate change "research" [ ?? ] .
Keep the alarmism going at maximum volume and the funding will keep right on rolling in.
Even some highly respected scientists and more than one or two from my reading are now starting to say that this is now the case as well.

Roy Spencer;
Quote:
Coordinating an effective international effort to cut funding to long-lived climate alarmism enforcers will be the hardest task. Science institutions worldwide have spoken out on the need to address global warming, despite no scientist really knowing how much of past warming (which ended ten years ago) is natural versus manmade, and despite those institutions knowing virtually nothing about the underlying science.

Climate alarmists will waste more than just American money. Regulators in the developing world push to enforce stronger air-pollution rules, which expands the role of government and provides job security for bureaucrats, while ignoring the downside of diverting too much of the taxpayers’ money away from other, more worthy goals.


And for a precedent; A very senior scientist involved in the ozone hole research / scam, the warm up run for the great global warming scam, has claimed that around 80% of the papers on the ozone hole had some made up data or fraudulent data included or was just plain fraudulent to start with.
The funding for this catastrophic development of the "new" ozone hole [ it has been there for millions of years until the sats picked it up. Its existence is a result of the almost complete shading of the solar UV rays from over Antarctica during mid winter. Solar UV rays are the upper atmosphere's mechanism for creating the O3 [ ozone ] molecule ]
So exaggerating the supposed catastrophic nature of this completely natural multi millions of years old Antarctica phenomena just kept the lavish funding right on rolling in until something else equally serious and catastrophic turned up ie; global warming to ensure the ongoing funding.

[ Chemists poke holes in ozone theory; Nature News Sept 2007 ]
Quote:
So Markus Rex, an atmosphere scientist at the Alfred Wegener Institute of Polar and Marine Research in Potsdam, Germany, did a double-take when he saw new data for the break-down rate of a crucial molecule, dichlorine peroxide (Cl2O2). The rate of photolysis (light-activated splitting) of this molecule reported by chemists at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California1, was extremely low in the wavelengths available in the stratosphere — almost an order of magnitude lower than the currently accepted rate. “This must have far-reaching consequences,” Rex says. “If the measurements are correct we can basically no longer say we understand how ozone holes come into being.” What effect the results have on projections of the speed or extent of ozone depletion remains unclear.

The rapid photolysis of Cl2O2 is a key reaction in the chemical model of ozone destruction developed 20 years ago2 (see graphic). If the rate is substantially lower than previously thought, then it would not be possible to create enough aggressive chlorine radicals to explain the observed ozone losses at high latitudes, says Rex. The extent of the discrepancy became apparent only when he incorporated the new photolysis rate into a chemical model of ozone depletion. The result was a shock: at least 60% of ozone destruction at the poles seems to be due to an unknown mechanism, Rex told a meeting of stratosphere researchers in Bremen, Germany, last week.
]
And so goes global warming!
And scientists wonder why they appear to be starting to lose the trust of the public, something that is increasingly being commented on by well respected scientists!

Incidentally , the entire Ozone hole fiasco was entirely the result of the output of a few unverified, unvalidated models. There was no means of physically checking the reactions needed to destroy ozone in those pressures and temperatures that existed over antarctica in mid winter until the german chemists finally got around to doing the research on what was established and "incontrovertible" science, at least until those german chemists, not "climate scientists", got involved.
Sounds very familiar!




Top
#1082651 - 29/02/2012 08:10 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: ROM]
bd bucketingdown Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 7/02/2008
Loc: Eastern A/Hills SA
"The result was a shock: at least 60% of ozone destruction at the poles seems to be due to an unknown mechanism, Rex told a meeting of stratosphere researchers in Bremen, Germany, last week." (quote above)

Look up at the bright hot ball in the sky, guys it moderates the ozone when more active than normal as last 20 years!
Ozone should start to fall soon imo anyway.


Edited by bd bucketingdown (29/02/2012 08:10)

Top
#1082666 - 29/02/2012 08:39 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: bd bucketingdown]
bd bucketingdown Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 7/02/2008
Loc: Eastern A/Hills SA
rise I mean!~

Top
#1099252 - 13/04/2012 12:05 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: bd bucketingdown]
CeeBee Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/02/2012
About time we had the latest SLR data up. SLR continues on it's upward slope of over 3mm a year.



http://www.aviso.oceanobs.com/en/news/ocean-indicators/mean-sea-level/



Top
#1099259 - 13/04/2012 12:20 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: CeeBee]
Anthony Violi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 6/11/2001
Loc: Lilydale - Melbourne
Forget to mention that not only are temps adjusted to suit the ever failing climate models, that Envisat have adjusted sea level data as well? Not entirely unexpected...data needs to be adjusted across the board to suit the IPCC. How will they adjust the lack of hurricane strikes on the US i wonder over the last 7 years???



Nice adjustment there, cheap pc, a few hours of work and my goodness Hansen might be right. Better tell Tim to get off the Hawkesbury real quick.

Top
#1099338 - 13/04/2012 21:55 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: Anthony Violi]
Sir BoabTree Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 7/02/2007
Loc: Townsville Dry Tropics
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/04/12/envisats-satellite-failure-launches-mysteries/#more-61214

Might want to roll back the flood insurance and stop stock piling stilts people. Seems one of the measuring satelittes has been serving up dodgy data (which has been 'smoothed again') until it is now out of contact and the orbit is expected to start decaying shortly if they can't resume comms with it.

Now call me a cynic but when sea leavels rise everywhere except where the tidal ranges are measured (offical tide meauring facilities around the world including right here in the Port of Townsville) it smacks of data fidling.



Edited by Sir BoabTree (13/04/2012 21:57)
_________________________
Rain YTD 1235mm May 1mm
Teh WZ Spullin Knig - Dyslexics Untie
Just because you are offended by something I post doesn't always make you right.


Top
#1099357 - 13/04/2012 23:36 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: Sir BoabTree]
ROM Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2007
Loc: Horsham in western Victoria
Now, now SBT, just look at how ENVISAT has saved Tuvalu.

Source; Real Science ; Envisat Saves Tuvalu!



And; 30 Years Of Wild Incompetence In Government Sea Level Forecasts



Top
#1099375 - 14/04/2012 07:20 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: ROM]
CeeBee Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/02/2012


Hmmm, I wonder why he cherry picked that one single location at La Jolla versus the entire globe which is what the original paper is focused on...

Top
#1099403 - 14/04/2012 09:45 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: CeeBee]
Sir BoabTree Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 7/02/2007
Loc: Townsville Dry Tropics
It is representing the lack of increases CeeBee. Look it is a fairly difficult concept for some people to grasp but water finds it's own level everywhere that it is connected so in this case the Pacific Ocean, which is connected to all the major oceans on the planet will find a level that can be measured. So if the sea level hasn't risen in the one used above, it can't be rising anywhere else either that the sea/ocean is connected to.

Yes I know it is in constant motion and that changing tidal forces, storms, floods, earthquakes etc all have some influences but in the end these can be measured and accounted for.

Global warming is supposed to increase sea levels right?

So where are the increases occuring?

If you believe the cAWG mob they are occuring only in the lowest parts of the ocean like Tuvalu so my question is how can there be low points in an ocean where very conviently there just happens to be a small group of islands whos only ecconomy is derived from selling .tv addresses extensions to websites and no where else in the world?
_________________________
Rain YTD 1235mm May 1mm
Teh WZ Spullin Knig - Dyslexics Untie
Just because you are offended by something I post doesn't always make you right.


Top
#1099413 - 14/04/2012 11:41 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: Sir BoabTree]
CeeBee Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/02/2012
Here's a few locations of where the increases are occurring. There's many more I'll post if you like.





http://climateinsight.files.wordpress.com/2011/07/manilatidegauge.png

http://climateinsight.files.wordpress.com/2010/12/csirosealevel.png

And speaking of Tuvalu... What's happening to Tuvalu sea level?






Top
#1099476 - 14/04/2012 17:50 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: CeeBee]
GDL Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2008
Loc: Bowen Mountain NSW
Why is it that somedays when i am reading these threads its like reading a script from the Big Bang theory

Top
#1100206 - 19/04/2012 10:29 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: GDL]
Sir BoabTree Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 7/02/2007
Loc: Townsville Dry Tropics
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/04/18/ic...ent/#more-61552 Seems that the Himilayian Glaciers are actually growing slightly and not melting so the impact on supposed sea level rises has not been as much as predicted by pro cAGW mobs.
_________________________
Rain YTD 1235mm May 1mm
Teh WZ Spullin Knig - Dyslexics Untie
Just because you are offended by something I post doesn't always make you right.


Top
#1100207 - 19/04/2012 10:30 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: Sir BoabTree]
Sir BoabTree Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 7/02/2007
Loc: Townsville Dry Tropics
CeeBee I say again. You can't have rises in one location and not in all of them.
_________________________
Rain YTD 1235mm May 1mm
Teh WZ Spullin Knig - Dyslexics Untie
Just because you are offended by something I post doesn't always make you right.


Top
#1100227 - 19/04/2012 12:11 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: Sir BoabTree]
ROM Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2007
Loc: Horsham in western Victoria
Just browsing around and came across this "ABC Science" article from july 2011.

Sea rise slow down raises questions

A quote from this article;
Quote:
Debate over findings
Dr Howard Brady, a former geologist and now honorary associate at the School of Biology at Sydney's Macquarie University, says the study highlights the gap between models and historical data.

"Modelling is very important because it can give us some idea of how things interact, but it doesn't necessarily give us an accurate projection of the future," says Brady. "The idea that the science is settled ... that's not true."

Dr Kathleen McInnes, a climate researcher at CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric research, says a range of sources are used to analyse sea levels, including tide gauges, satellites and geological records.

She dismisses claims that sea levels will only rise by 15 centimetres this century.

"The Watson paper is not about future projections, it is about past observations. Drawing any connection is misleading," says McInnes.

She says the most recent IPCC report predicts sea levels will rise between 20 and 80 centimetres by the end of this century.

"There is a much bigger body of evidence supporting the IPCC projections than there is from single papers in the scientific literature. You have to be very careful when a single paper is cited as though this is the state of the science."


From the IPCC site;

Climate Change 2007: Working Group I: The Physical Science Basis

Projections of Future Changes in Climate <



Dr Kathleen McInnes in the quote above claims the IPCC has projected a range of sea level rises of 20 to 80 cms by the turn of the 21st century.

In the table from the above IPCC web site, the sea level rises amongst all six CO2 scenarios range from 18 cms to 59 cms

Dr Kathleen McInnes of the CSIRO's Marine and Atmospheric research is either deliberately obfuscating or deliberately exaggerating or she is just plain bloody ignorant about what the IPCC really said about the estimated sea level rises by the end of the 21st century.
Either way it is a telling indictment on the level of integrity and expertise in the climate change departments of the CSIRO.

And we are supposed to place our "trust" in these climate warming science quacks !.

Top
#1100239 - 19/04/2012 13:34 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: ROM]
CeeBee Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/02/2012

It's a moot point really as the latest SLR projections are well above the AR4 projections.

Top
#1100260 - 19/04/2012 15:10 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: CeeBee]
ROM Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2007
Loc: Horsham in western Victoria
SLR projections above AR4 projections

"projections"!????

Meanwhile from "Colorado University Sea Level Research Group"
[ And JPL ]


A rate of 3.1 mm +/-0.4 mm / yr [ seasonal signals removed ] sea level rise.[ graph below ]

Therefore on present trends a SL rise of 310 mms by 2110 which in no way is above the IPCC projections as can be seen in the table direct from the IPCC in my previous post.
310 mms SL rise by 2110 places the total sea level rise in the IPCC's lowest B1 scenario's projections as again can be seen in the above table.

Due to the slow down in global temperature increases and the now 15 year long plateaued and stable global temperatures, the IPCC's B1 scenario, the lowest trending model, is now regarded as possibly the closest projected IPCC model to reality.

And it is now accepted even by the IPCC that the extreme projected temperature rise of a maximum of 6.4 C and the Sea Level rise of 59 cms as projected in the A1F1 scenario as above in the table is unrealistic and outside of the bounds of any likely increases in both temperature and SL rises if the CO2 warming hypothesis actually holds good which is becoming increasingly doubtful every day that passes as new climate science on the global climate continues to be published..










Edited by ROM (19/04/2012 15:19)

Top
#1100265 - 19/04/2012 16:06 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: ROM]
CeeBee Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/02/2012
ROM, SLR won't just continue going up by 3mm per year. The rate of SLR will increase over the years.

That drop of 5mm in SLR was due to the massive amount of evaporation that fell as rain which caused all those devastating floods the past few years. All that water is making it's way back to the oceans so expect to see a spike in SLR.

http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.cfm?release=2011-262

So what's up with the down seas, and what does it mean? Climate scientist Josh Willis of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif., says you can blame it on the cycle of El Nińo and La Nińa in the Pacific.

Willis said that while 2010 began with a sizable El Nińo, by year's end, it was replaced by one of the strongest La Nińas in recent memory. This sudden shift in the Pacific changed rainfall patterns all across the globe, bringing massive floods to places like Australia and the Amazon basin, and drought to the southern United States.

Data from the NASA/German Aerospace Center's twin Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (Grace) spacecraft provide a clear picture of how this extra rain piled onto the continents in the early parts of 2011. "By detecting where water is on the continents, Grace shows us how water moves around the planet," says Steve Nerem, a sea level scientist at the University of Colorado in Boulder.

So where does all that extra water in Brazil and Australia come from? You guessed it--the ocean. Each year, huge amounts of water are evaporated from the ocean. While most of it falls right back into the ocean as rain, some of it falls over land. "This year, the continents got an extra dose of rain, so much so that global sea levels actually fell over most of the last year," says Carmen Boening, a JPL oceanographer and climate scientist. Boening and colleagues presented these results recently at the annual Grace Science Team Meeting in Austin, Texas.

But for those who might argue that these data show us entering a long-term period of decline in global sea level, Willis cautions that sea level drops such as this one cannot last, and over the long-run, the trend remains solidly up. Water flows downhill, and the extra rain will eventually find its way back to the sea. When it does, global sea level will rise again.

"We're heating up the planet, and in the end that means more sea level rise," says Willis. "But El Nińo and La Nińa always take us on a rainfall rollercoaster, and in years like this they give us sea-level whiplash."

Top
#1100277 - 19/04/2012 17:36 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: CeeBee]
Anthony Violi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 6/11/2001
Loc: Lilydale - Melbourne
You lost me when you mentioned NASA. More corrupt than the BOM and CSIRO.

And you know it too, because Manhattan isnt 8 storyes deep under water.

Top
#1100279 - 19/04/2012 17:40 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: CeeBee]
ROM Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2007
Loc: Horsham in western Victoria
But it sure made a mess of all the warmistas claims on a catastrophic sea level rise when nature shows just how ridiculous all those claims of catastrophic and monotonic increases in various climate phenomena actually are.

And supposedly all due to some 4% per year of extra CO2 over and above the annual turnover of global CO2 we humans are supposed to be putting into the atmosphere, a claim that again is based almost entirely on unvalidated models of CO2 turnover, both natural and anthropogenic.

There is no actual hard evidence of the percentages of CO2 turnover from natural sources and anthropogenic sources as very few real time measurements have been taken from actual power stations and other industries.
The only means of differentiating between natural and anthropogenic CO2 is by the isotopes and here there is a great deal of doubt over the ratios from natural and the burning of fossil fuels even though the warmistas like to claim and believe "the science is settled".

The oceans have been warming and warm water does not hold as much CO2 so warming oceans should mean a release of oceanic CO2 into the atmosphere.
Nor is it known just how much CO2 the oceans take up as ocean waters cool as they move into the northern and southern reaches of the planet will take up CO2 while warming waters across the tropical and mid latitude regions will release CO2.
About half of the so called anthropogenic CO2 that is supposedly released each year disappears into CO2 sink[s] somewhere on this planet and those sinks are as yet unidentified.

Carbon isotope C12 is selectively taken up by C3 plants by about an extra 2% so it assumed that the 2% difference in the take up of C13 and C12 isotopes relates to the consumption of fossil fuels of which coal is made up of 100 to 300 million years ago "plants" the actual biology of which has not really been studied.
Yet by measuring the ratios of C12 and C13 in the atmosphere, it is assumed that the amounts of anthropogenic and the natural turn over of CO2 can be measured.

As Roy Spencer points out, if fossil fuel origin CO2 was the reason for the increase on CO2 levels then the ratios between C12 and C13 would be changing in favour of more C12 isotope which would have been selectively taken up by the plants that the vast coal beds were laid down from and which when burnt today would release that C12 isotope back into the global atmosphere at slightly higher amounts than the C13 isotope.

But the composition of atmospheric CO2 is not changing. The two carbon isotopes are rising in the same fixed ratios relative to one another which means, if the carbon pushers want to maintain their claims about CO2 science that there is another source of CO2 that is being released and adding to the current atmospheric CO2 levels.
And anthropogenic CO2 is possibly / probably not the main reason for the increase in atmospheric CO2.

And that only leaves the warming oceans which release CO2 as they warm..

Even here with the truly immense tonnages of the plant like, CO2 absorbing and emitting ocean algae and zooplankton and phytoplankton, these critters must be making a huge contribution to the natural turn over of CO2 and long term variations in the levels of those ocean critters in various parts of the oceans which may be associated with solar emmissions across the solar spectrum as well as the ENSO phases could be ultimately responsible for the largest part of the changes in the levels of global CO2.

The rise in atmospheric CO2 is remarkably even across all the global air sampling stations such as Cape Grim in Tasmania as well as Mauna Loa and other stations. This is a very strange situation as first, most of or nearly all of anthropogenic CO2 is released in the northern hemisphere.
There are satellite maps showing the higher concentrations of CO2 girdling the earth in the mid northern hemi latitudes although A lot of this CO2 could be due to the immense land areas and the plant populations in these northern latitudes and not necessarily related to human activities as most would immediately assume due to the all pervading alarmist warmista propaganda of the last 20 years.

During the 1950's and 60's and into the 70's there were over 2100 nuclear tests conducted.
Of these some 530 tests were atmospheric.
The interesting item here is that it took some 18 months for the airborne particles of the various radio active isotopes of various gases to be detected south of the equatorial regions where the equatorial weather systems act as a barrier to the rapid movement of northern hemisphere air masses across into the southern hemisphere systems.

A quote from an article on Antarctica which outlines this phenomena
Quote:
Geochemist Jack E. Dibb and his colleagues from the University of New Hampshire in Durham analyzed samples collected from a snow pit about 38 kilometers from the South Pole. As expected, the deeper portion of the pit held radioactive layers corresponding to the years 1955 through 1974 -- the peak period of above-ground nuclear bomb testing. Yet the researchers also measured a radiation "spike"--about 20 to 30 times above the background level -- in snow near the top of the pit, deposited during late 1987 and early 1988. They traced the radioactivity to cesium-137, an isotope that does not form in nature but does form during nuclear explosions and in reactors.

The radioactive snow fell on Antarctica about 20 months after the Chernobyl accident -- a lag consistent with the time it took isotopes to reach the South Pole from bomb tests in the Northern Hemisphere. In a letter in the May 3 NATURE, Dibb's group proposes that some of Chernobyl's radioactive isotopes penetrated the stratosphere, crossed the equator and then fell in snowflakes on central Antarctica. They speculate that special wind patterns above the Antarctic might explain why the South Pole is the only spot in the Southern Hemisphere where scientists have detected excess cesium-137 following the Chernobyl event.


So in view of the known and measured delays in gases, as measured from the various gas isotopes from atmospheric nuclear testing and as most of the claimed anthropogenic CO2 releases are in the northern hemisphere, the evenness of the increases in the global CO2 levels at all the monitoring and air sampling stations both in the northern and southern hemispheres should raise some quite significant questions on the actual origins of the CO2 that is being measured.

Again only the warming oceans have the spread and compass to enable such an even release of CO2 across the planet.

Increasing Atmospheric CO2: Manmade…or Natural?
Roy Spencer

Well worth a read for an alternative view and perhaps ultimately something much nearer the real life CO2 atmospheric emissions structure.

&

Climate-driven trends in contemporary ocean productivity
Quote:
Contributing roughly half of the biosphere’s net primary produc-tion (NPP)1,2, photosynthesis by oceanic phytoplankton is a vital link in the cycling of carbon between living and inorganic stocks.
Each day, more than a hundred million tons of carbon in the form of CO2 are fixed into organic material by these ubiquitous, microscopic plants of the upper ocean, and each day a similar amount of organic carbon is transferred into marine ecosystems by sinking and grazing. The distribution of phytoplankton biomass and NPP is defined by the availability of light and nutrients (nitrogen, phosphate, iron). These growth-limiting factors are in turn regulated by physical processes of ocean circulation, mixed-layer dynamics,upwelling, atmospheric dust deposition, and the solar cycle.
Satellite measurements of ocean colour provide a means of quantifying ocean productivity on a global scale and linking its variability to environmental factors. Here we describe global ocean NPP changes detected from space over the past decade. The period is dominated by an initial increase in NPP of 1,930 teragrams of carbon a year (Tg C yr21), followed by a prolonged decrease averaging 190 Tg C yr21. These trends are driven by changes occurring in the expansive stratified low-latitude oceans and are tightly coupled to coincident climate variability. This link between the physical environment and ocean biology functions through changes in upper-ocean temperature and stratification, which influence the availability of nutrients for phytoplankton growth.
The observed reductions in ocean productivity during the recent post-1999 warming period provide insight on how future climate change can alter marine food webs.

Top
#1100305 - 19/04/2012 19:45 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: CeeBee]
liberator Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/11/2010
Loc: Kyabram
Water cycles anyone? If we had huge increases in evaporation due to La Nina resulting in a drop in sea levels – how does this happen globally and not locally or are the sea levels plotted an overall global average? I find it hard to understand how they can accurately measure sea levels to millimetres. What with tides, waves, expansion and contraction due to temperature changes, gravitational effects, etc it must be a very difficult science.

If I fill a bath and step in it does not the level increase overall and not just where I put my foot in? If I take a cup of water out does not the reverse happen?

While we are having the torrential rains other parts of the world are not. Does this not balance out? If we also saw huge increases in evaporation resulting in a drop of sea levels, would we not see corresponding increases in the primary greenhouse gas - water vapour? Is that monitored, tracked, graphed, modelled or whatever climate scientists do to track GW?

Yet at the same time the amount of ice in the Antarctica is “low” so where did that water go, melt into the ocean and increase ocean levels, or evaporated into the atmosphere increasing water vapour levels?

I don’t know the answer just asking the questions and hoping someone can enlighten me.

Top
#1100319 - 19/04/2012 21:12 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: liberator]
ROM Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2007
Loc: Horsham in western Victoria
We all concentrate on temperature but the main weather / climate item for most Australians is precipitation.

So here is the "Global Distribution of Precipitation".
You will see in the figures here that the global ,mean land surface precipitation data gives a mean of 1050 mms per year or 88 mms per month over the land surface of the planet with the exception of Antarctica [ 50 mms per annum on the main central 3000 metre high plateau or by the usual accepted standards, a desert. ] and Greenland, a total of 12 % of the global land surface, both of which are excluded which distorts the data somewhat.

Cherrapundi in India with 26.47 metres of rainfall in 1861 is situated on the south slopes of the Khasi Hills some 400 kilometres to the north of the head of the Bay of Bengal.
The average annual rainfall is 11. 77 metres.
Best if you look this up in Wiki for more info.

The "Global Precipitation Climatology Project" has a lot of web references but they are mostly data.

So that 5 mm fall in global sea levels is presumed to be from evaporation by the alarmists but far more likely to be from the cooling and contraction of a vast mass of ocean waters due to the cold La Ninas of the last couple of years.
The 5 mm fall in ocean levels amounts to about an extra 12 mms of precipitation if that can be at all proven and is not another hand waving exercise, across the planet's land surfaces and so is merely a small dent in the total mean annual global rainfall of 1050 mms.
The corollary of this of course is that the previous annual 3 mm rise in global sea levels doesn't come at the expense of any less rainfall across the global land surfaces but is due to the expansion of the ocean waters which is what all the climate researchers are saying.

Now that global warming trends have plateaued it will be interesting to see if that sea level rise continues. It has already flattened out so perhaps the writing is on the wall for the alarmist claims of major sea level rises.

And darned if I know where the claims of an acceleration in sea level rises originates from unless it is from the fertile imaginations of the alarmists who have to keep the gravy train rolling or lose their grants. Such trauma even to think of that!

The IPCC or any of the other major climate research organisations don't claim any such sea level rise acceleration are due in the future.

Top
#1100325 - 19/04/2012 21:50 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: ROM]
BNE Online   sleepy
WZ Moderator

Registered: 23/09/2001
Loc: Bellingen, NSW
Great posts ROM - thank you! Massive effort, massive amount of info and much appreciated. We certainly don't agree on everything but this discussion is fascinating - great to see on the forum.

Top
#1100326 - 19/04/2012 21:55 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: BNE]
ROM Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2007
Loc: Horsham in western Victoria
A surprised "thank you", BNE! grin

Top
#1100351 - 20/04/2012 07:55 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: ROM]
Dustydevil Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/04/2010
Loc: Darwin
I can not help wondering how anyone can actually put an exact figure on sea level (let alone determine how much it will rise or fall by) when the Earth is supposedly a flattened-pear shape and not perfectly spherical. Some of the figures on the previous page seem to show rises in sea level in some spots while there are falls in others. Can someone point me in the right direction to find out how such figures are calculated and what error level is involved?

Thanks.

Top
#1100366 - 20/04/2012 10:14 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: ROM]
CeeBee Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/02/2012
Originally Posted By: ROM
But it sure made a mess of all the warmistas claims on a catastrophic sea level rise when nature shows just how ridiculous all those claims of catastrophic and monotonic increases in various climate phenomena actually are.

And supposedly all due to some 4% per year of extra CO2 over and above the annual turnover of global CO2 we humans are supposed to be putting into the atmosphere, a claim that again is based almost entirely on unvalidated models of CO2 turnover, both natural and anthropogenic.

There is no actual hard evidence of the percentages of CO2 turnover from natural sources and anthropogenic sources as very few real time measurements have been taken from actual power stations and other industries.
The only means of differentiating between natural and anthropogenic CO2 is by the isotopes and here there is a great deal of doubt over the ratios from natural and the burning of fossil fuels even though the warmistas like to claim and believe "the science is settled".

The oceans have been warming and warm water does not hold as much CO2 so warming oceans should mean a release of oceanic CO2 into the atmosphere.
Nor is it known just how much CO2 the oceans take up as ocean waters cool as they move into the northern and southern reaches of the planet will take up CO2 while warming waters across the tropical and mid latitude regions will release CO2.
About half of the so called anthropogenic CO2 that is supposedly released each year disappears into CO2 sink[s] somewhere on this planet and those sinks are as yet unidentified.

Carbon isotope C12 is selectively taken up by C3 plants by about an extra 2% so it assumed that the 2% difference in the take up of C13 and C12 isotopes relates to the consumption of fossil fuels of which coal is made up of 100 to 300 million years ago "plants" the actual biology of which has not really been studied.
Yet by measuring the ratios of C12 and C13 in the atmosphere, it is assumed that the amounts of anthropogenic and the natural turn over of CO2 can be measured.

As Roy Spencer points out, if fossil fuel origin CO2 was the reason for the increase on CO2 levels then the ratios between C12 and C13 would be changing in favour of more C12 isotope which would have been selectively taken up by the plants that the vast coal beds were laid down from and which when burnt today would release that C12 isotope back into the global atmosphere at slightly higher amounts than the C13 isotope.

But the composition of atmospheric CO2 is not changing. The two carbon isotopes are rising in the same fixed ratios relative to one another which means, if the carbon pushers want to maintain their claims about CO2 science that there is another source of CO2 that is being released and adding to the current atmospheric CO2 levels.
And anthropogenic CO2 is possibly / probably not the main reason for the increase in atmospheric CO2.

And that only leaves the warming oceans which release CO2 as they warm..

Even here with the truly immense tonnages of the plant like, CO2 absorbing and emitting ocean algae and zooplankton and phytoplankton, these critters must be making a huge contribution to the natural turn over of CO2 and long term variations in the levels of those ocean critters in various parts of the oceans which may be associated with solar emmissions across the solar spectrum as well as the ENSO phases could be ultimately responsible for the largest part of the changes in the levels of global CO2.

The rise in atmospheric CO2 is remarkably even across all the global air sampling stations such as Cape Grim in Tasmania as well as Mauna Loa and other stations. This is a very strange situation as first, most of or nearly all of anthropogenic CO2 is released in the northern hemisphere.
There are satellite maps showing the higher concentrations of CO2 girdling the earth in the mid northern hemi latitudes although A lot of this CO2 could be due to the immense land areas and the plant populations in these northern latitudes and not necessarily related to human activities as most would immediately assume due to the all pervading alarmist warmista propaganda of the last 20 years.

During the 1950's and 60's and into the 70's there were over 2100 nuclear tests conducted.
Of these some 530 tests were atmospheric.
The interesting item here is that it took some 18 months for the airborne particles of the various radio active isotopes of various gases to be detected south of the equatorial regions where the equatorial weather systems act as a barrier to the rapid movement of northern hemisphere air masses across into the southern hemisphere systems.

A quote from an article on Antarctica which outlines this phenomena
Quote:
Geochemist Jack E. Dibb and his colleagues from the University of New Hampshire in Durham analyzed samples collected from a snow pit about 38 kilometers from the South Pole. As expected, the deeper portion of the pit held radioactive layers corresponding to the years 1955 through 1974 -- the peak period of above-ground nuclear bomb testing. Yet the researchers also measured a radiation "spike"--about 20 to 30 times above the background level -- in snow near the top of the pit, deposited during late 1987 and early 1988. They traced the radioactivity to cesium-137, an isotope that does not form in nature but does form during nuclear explosions and in reactors.

The radioactive snow fell on Antarctica about 20 months after the Chernobyl accident -- a lag consistent with the time it took isotopes to reach the South Pole from bomb tests in the Northern Hemisphere. In a letter in the May 3 NATURE, Dibb's group proposes that some of Chernobyl's radioactive isotopes penetrated the stratosphere, crossed the equator and then fell in snowflakes on central Antarctica. They speculate that special wind patterns above the Antarctic might explain why the South Pole is the only spot in the Southern Hemisphere where scientists have detected excess cesium-137 following the Chernobyl event.


So in view of the known and measured delays in gases, as measured from the various gas isotopes from atmospheric nuclear testing and as most of the claimed anthropogenic CO2 releases are in the northern hemisphere, the evenness of the increases in the global CO2 levels at all the monitoring and air sampling stations both in the northern and southern hemispheres should raise some quite significant questions on the actual origins of the CO2 that is being measured.

Again only the warming oceans have the spread and compass to enable such an even release of CO2 across the planet.

Increasing Atmospheric CO2: Manmade…or Natural?
Roy Spencer

Well worth a read for an alternative view and perhaps ultimately something much nearer the real life CO2 atmospheric emissions structure.

&

Climate-driven trends in contemporary ocean productivity
Quote:
Contributing roughly half of the biosphere’s net primary produc-tion (NPP)1,2, photosynthesis by oceanic phytoplankton is a vital link in the cycling of carbon between living and inorganic stocks.
Each day, more than a hundred million tons of carbon in the form of CO2 are fixed into organic material by these ubiquitous, microscopic plants of the upper ocean, and each day a similar amount of organic carbon is transferred into marine ecosystems by sinking and grazing. The distribution of phytoplankton biomass and NPP is defined by the availability of light and nutrients (nitrogen, phosphate, iron). These growth-limiting factors are in turn regulated by physical processes of ocean circulation, mixed-layer dynamics,upwelling, atmospheric dust deposition, and the solar cycle.
Satellite measurements of ocean colour provide a means of quantifying ocean productivity on a global scale and linking its variability to environmental factors. Here we describe global ocean NPP changes detected from space over the past decade. The period is dominated by an initial increase in NPP of 1,930 teragrams of carbon a year (Tg C yr21), followed by a prolonged decrease averaging 190 Tg C yr21. These trends are driven by changes occurring in the expansive stratified low-latitude oceans and are tightly coupled to coincident climate variability. This link between the physical environment and ocean biology functions through changes in upper-ocean temperature and stratification, which influence the availability of nutrients for phytoplankton growth.
The observed reductions in ocean productivity during the recent post-1999 warming period provide insight on how future climate change can alter marine food webs.




Just a quick post where I dispute your claim ROM that human activity has not increased CO2 levels.

Carbon Dioxide (CO2) occurs naturally in nature. It is produced by the burning and natural decay of organic matter, by the respiration of oxygen-using organisms and by volcanoes. In a natural state the CO2 used by plants for photosynthesis is absorbed by the oceans or taken in by marine organisms which die and sink to the bed of the ocean. In recent centuries, since the start of the industrial revolution, CO2 levels have increased as a result of human activity.

Figure 1, which is based on Marland et al (Marland, G., T.A. Boden, and R.J. Andres. 2008. Global, Regional, and National CO2 Emissions. In Trends: A Compendium of Data on Global Change. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tenn., U.S.A.), shows the increase in CO2 emissions from human activity since 1800. This has resulted in an increase in atmospheric CO2.



http://www.climatedata.info/Forcing/Emissions/Emissions/CO2.html

Top
#1100369 - 20/04/2012 10:32 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: Dustydevil]
ROM Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2007
Loc: Horsham in western Victoria
Recipe for measuring sea surface levels;
1 / A range of satellites using different satellite to ground measuring technologies to enable verification against one another.
2 / Satellite borne Microwave or radar ranging systems.
3 / Satellite borne atomic clocks for range timing.
4 / Ground based data computer analysis and appropriate algorithms to produce useable information.
5 / A system of GPS located buoys plus very long term and stable Tide gauges for ground truthing of the satellite's output.

The whole thing with any satellite based systems for measuring earth's surface characteristics is a bit of a black box type technology.
Satellite based sea surface levels / rises / falls rely on extremely accurate atomic clock systems within the actual satellites.
These satellite clocks are regularly checked and corrected against even more accurate ground based systems.
And there have been some further big jumps in the accuracy of clocks in the last few months;
[ New optical clock breaks accuracy record ]
The satellites put out a radar or very high frequency microwave [ for surface cloud and water vapour penetration ] type signal which is reflected from the sea surface and this reflected echo is received back by the satellite.
Hundreds of such radar pulses are emitted by the satellite every second. The timing between the emission of the pulse and the reception of the echo from that same pulse is timed by the on board atomic clock.
These radar type pulses and their echoes travel at a very well known velocity that is close to the speed of light through an atmosphere or around 300, 000 kms per second.
The atomic clocks which are now quite old and well developed technology compared to the new time systems now being developed are accurate enough to calculate the period between the radar pulse and it's return echo and then using the velocity of the radar pulse through the atmosphere, to give a distance from the satellite to the surface that is accurate down to a couple of centimetres.
Repeat this process billions of times and you get a whole grouping of echoes that will narrow the distances down to the earth's surface as defined by the satellite system to within a couple of centimetres
[ and increasingly smaller tolerances and ever increasing accuracy as the technology is continually improved.
As an example of the levels of satellite technology now being used; The GRACE gravity analysis system which is being used to measure items such as the amounts of ice in Greenland and other gravitational phenomena on the planet and etc uses two satellites traveling in formation which maintain a separation using microwave distance measuring. ie from Wiki "The ranging system is sensitive enough to detect separation changes as small as 10 micrometres (approximately one-tenth the width of a human hair) over a distance of 220 kilometers".]
.
However due to variations in the earth's gravity from masses such as mountain ranges, areas of low / high density rock, shallow crustal regions and etc, the satellites distance from the earth's surface varies considerably as they orbit around the planet.
These variations in the planets crustal and therefore gravitational changes during the satellites orbit of the planet which constantly change the distance of the satellite from the earth's surface, are extremely well known after some 60 years of satellite technology since "Sputnik" in 1957 and are incorporated into the computer data analysis programs which pull together the data into a form that you and I can comprehend.

The precise location of the satellite and it's orientation is known to within a few centimetres, again based on atomic clocks and the Global Positioning System which incorporates extremely accurately known locations on the Earth's surface as the check points for the GPS satellite system.

Another absolutely essential step in the satellite calibration systems is to "ground truth" the output of the satellite to both check that the data being downloaded is correct and to pick up any changes or glitches that will occur in any system over time.
In Sea Surface Level satellite calibration this involves measuring the satellite's accuracy re changes in SSL's against some very well known and very stable long term tide gauges against which the satellites accuracy can be assessed as it does it's regular pass over any of those tide' sea level gauges.
Another technique for "ground truthing" for sea level purposes is to use GPS buoys such as the those in Bass Strait which is used as a one of a world wide system of calibrating the satellites for sea level measuring purposes.

Reading this article below will give you some idea of the technology and the black box computations that go into system that relies on satellites

Absolute Calibration of TOPEX/Poseidon and Jason-1 Using GPS Buoys in Bass Strait, Australia

Edit; If you want to check on individual sea level changes at various locations around the world then the "Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level"
Go to station ID and click.

And those increases in tide gauge data are al less than that 3.1mms annual rise but that's another post.



Edited by ROM (20/04/2012 10:39)

Top
#1100382 - 20/04/2012 11:33 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: ROM]
CeeBee Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/02/2012
ROM you said the increases in tide gauge data are all less than that 3.1mms annual rise.

I put that claim to the test by clicking on a few locations.

Albany shows a SLR rise of around 110mm since 1987. An annual rise of 4.4mm
http://www.psmsl.org/data/obtaining/stations/957.php

Baltimore shows a SLR rise of around 350mm since 1902. An annual rise of 3.2mm
http://www.psmsl.org/data/obtaining/stations/148.php


Top
#1100386 - 20/04/2012 11:57 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: CeeBee]
ROM Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2007
Loc: Horsham in western Victoria
Some careful cherry picking there CeeBee, which you warmistas are very accomplished at.

Top
#1100388 - 20/04/2012 12:03 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: ROM]
ROM Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2007
Loc: Horsham in western Victoria
And on that CO2 graph! Congratulations !
You have just outlined the unverified sources of that 4% of the annual turnover of global CO2 that supposedly comprises mankind's contribution to the increases in global CO2 levels.

Top
#1100389 - 20/04/2012 12:34 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: ROM]
ROM Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2007
Loc: Horsham in western Victoria
Stuff happens!
How often does one get onto a subject and then out of the blue so as to speak, something directly related to the subject will turn up a very short time later.

Yesterday in the post above I gave an outline on the ratios of the C12 and C13 isotopes of carbon and the implications due to the preference of plants for the C12 isotope and the consequences of not seeing any difference in the ratios between the two Carbon isotopes as CO2 levels rise.
Now I have known of these ratios for many years but did need a good refresher to bring me up to speed. The C12 / C13 ratio question I took from Roy Spencer in his blog as linked to in that post.

This morning on WUWT a video of Proff Murray Salby is posted;

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YrI03ts--9I&feature=player_embedded

A quote from WUWT. in reference to Murray Salby
Quote:
Correlation of Net CO2 emissions with climate properties shows that the growth in CO2 may be natural

The narrative of the catastrophic anthropogenic global warming has been challenged at many levels but this presentation by Professor Murry Salby, Chair of Climate at Macquarie University rips up the very foundations of the story.


It turns out that Proff. Salby's discussion was high lighted by Judith Curry's "Climate Etc" blog in August last year, 2011.

Carbon cycle questions

Andrew Bolt also had a comment at the time and as he has included some of the basis for Salby's discussion I quote from there.

Quote:
Salby’s argument is that the usual evidence given for the rise in CO2 being man-made is mistaken. It’s usually taken to be the fact that as carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere increase, the 1 per cent of CO2 that’s the heavier carbon isotope ratio C13 declines in proportion. Plants, which produced our coal and oil, prefer the lighter C12 isotope. Hence, it must be our gasses that caused this relative decline.

But that conclusion holds true only if there are no other sources of C12 increases which are not human caused. Salby says there are – the huge increases in carbon dioxide concentrations caused by such things as spells of warming and El Ninos, which cause concentration levels to increase independently of human emissions. He suggests that its warmth which tends to produce more CO2, rather than vice versa – which, incidentally is the story of the past recoveries from ice ages.


Salby's and Spencers ideas seem to be very close in many respects and may well be the start of a complete new look at just what drives the CO2 levels in the climate and consequently the dramatic down grading of the role of anthropogenic CO2 to just a minor status, just one more amongst the innumerable driver's of the global climate and it's constant changes.


Roy Spencer; Increasing Atmospheric CO2: Manmade…or Natural?

Top
#1100402 - 20/04/2012 13:29 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: ROM]
CeeBee Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/02/2012
Yet more evidence that the current rise in CO2 is due to human activity...

On the Atmospheric Residence Time of Anthropogenically Sourced Carbon Dioxide.

It is straightforward to show, with considerable certainty, that the natural environment has acted as a net carbon sink throughout the industrial era, taking in significantly more carbon than it has emitted, and therefore, the observed rise in atmospheric CO2 cannot be a natural phenomenon.

http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/ef200914u

What is causing the increase in atmospheric CO2?

Some, most recently Murry Salby , have argued that the CO2 rise is in reponse to the temperature rise. However, the temperature rise has been quite erratic (because there are many factors which impact the average global temperature, especially in the short-term). If atmospheric CO2 changes were in response to temperature changes, then we would expect to see an erratic rise in CO2 as well. Instead, the atmospheric CO2 increase is very smooth, similar to the increase in human CO2 emissions.



http://www.skepticalscience.com/co2-increase-is-natural-not-human-caused.htm



CO2 concentrations over the holocene show little variation prior to the industrial era showing that the net natural CO2 flux is close to zero.

Top
#1100418 - 20/04/2012 14:44 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: CeeBee]
@_Yasified_shak Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 7/03/2009
Loc: El Arish
Maybe one of the reasons why the sea level rises are not as noticeable as they would/should be is because of all the water desalination plants that are in operation around the globe?
They would suck out countless billions of litres of water every month-year for human consumption.
And before you say that there is not that many water desalination plants around the globe to make an impact... think again! there are currently over 14,500 of them in operation.
_________________________
Rainfall 2010 2011 2012
MTD Jan 429mm Feb 626.1mm. Mar 1592.8mm Apr 227.7mm May 242.2
YTD 3116.8mm
2011 total 5859.1

Top
#1100419 - 20/04/2012 15:10 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
CeeBee Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/02/2012
Originally Posted By: @_Yasified_shak
Maybe one of the reasons why the sea level rises are not as noticeable as they would/should be is because of all the water desalination plants that are in operation around the globe?
They would suck out countless billions of litres of water every month-year for human consumption.
And before you say that there is not that many water desalination plants around the globe to make an impact... think again! there are currently over 14,500 of them in operation.


Interesting idea but if you think about it the water will make it's way into rivers and ultimately back into the ocean so there'll be no noticeable change to SLR.


Top
#1100437 - 20/04/2012 16:25 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: CeeBee]
Arnost Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/02/2007
Loc: Just a bit north of the "coath...
Originally Posted By: CeeBee
Albany shows a SLR rise of around 110mm since 1987. An annual rise of 4.4mm
http://www.psmsl.org/data/obtaining/stations/957.php




Had a look at the data in the link and noticed that there is monthly data there for Albany back to 1966/67. Had a bit of a play with it and analysis on the extended data set shows:
a) the time the annual plot starts (1987 as above) is the second lowest from (after 1993).
b) the trend from 1967 to 1987 is negative
c) the trend from 1967 to 1999 is flat.
d) the trend across the entire range (using the exact same methodology as CeeBee) is 0.6mm pa *
e) the trend from 1992 to 2010 is 4.8mm pa #

# [By comparison – the National Tidal Centre Seal Level Summary report has a value of 5.5mm pa for the last 20 years at Esperance http://www.bom.gov.au/ntc/IDO60202/IDO60202.2011.pdf ]
* [By comparison – Ken @ Kensingdom has also analysed Esperance and has a value of 0.9mm pa for the last 45 years at Esperance http://kenskingdom.files.wordpress.com/2011/12/table.jpg ]

The Esperance numbers are very comparable to the nearby Albany data that I have just crunched [Sorry can’t post up graphs but it does not take long to reconcile once one does the ~6310mm adjustment]. All in all appears to be another example of bad science (cherry picked data favouring the alarmist cause).
_________________________
Exceptions are pernicious, they conceal laws...

Top
#1100457 - 20/04/2012 20:08 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: Arnost]
ROM Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2007
Loc: Horsham in western Victoria
Global Warming Science - www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming

Sea Levels;

Quote;
The IPCC stated in the Third Assessment Report (2001) [http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/425.htm]: “There is no evidence for any acceleration of sea level rise in data from the 20th century data … Mediterranean records show decelerations, and even decreases in sea level in the latter part of the 20th century”.


The following figure shows global cumulative sea level change for 1900 to 2002 [http://www.wamis.org/agm/meetings/rsama08/S304-Shum_Global_Sea_Level_Rise.pdf]. Since according to the IPCC, CO2-based warming has apparently only shown up since the 1970s, all of this sea level rise since prior to 1970 cannot be caused by anthropogenic CO2, and yet the trend has not increased.>

This graph only goes to 2000 plus but it indicates that there has been no acceleration since 1970 when anthropogenic CO2 was supposed to first become a factor in the claimed global warming



…over the last 100 years the rate of 2.5 ± 1.0 mm/yr occurred between 1920 and 1945, is likely to be as large as the 1990s”>

And they are at it all over again. There is no shame or even a semblance of scientific integrity left in a lot of the alarmist science circles.
With the "Cause" as the goal, the end justifies the means.

< "There is a major difference between the above two versions of the same data through 2005 – the older data has more recently been adjusted downwards to increase the apparent rise. The following figure shows the data through 2009 changed to magenta and superimposed on the data published through 2005".>



From the "Hockey Schtick" blog.

Analysis finds satellite data has been continuously 'adjusted' to exaggerate sea level rise

Quote:
The German Skeptical Science site has analyzed satellite sea level altimetry data using the WayBackMachine archive [ edit ; nothing ever disappears on the web. There are over 2 billion pages archived in the "WayBackMachine" ] and finds that "adjustments" have been made continuously over the past 8 years "all in one direction, namely towards an increasing sea level rise. It almost seems that in recent years the data has been "adjusted" to continue to keep the overall increase over the magical minimum of 3 millimeters per year." The analysis notes 7 other publications have found global sea level rise from tide gauges to be significantly less, from 1.2 to 1.9 mm/yr, and mentions the Holgate 2007 paper which found sea level rise decelerated over the 20th century.

"because the Internet never forgets, useful sites such as the WayBackMachine [provide the history of data adjustments back to 2004]. The data for the years 2004 to 2012 are shown for comparison in the following graphic.


Quote:
It can be seen at first glance that adjustments to the data were made continuously. The interesting thing is that these adjustments have all been in one direction, namely towards an increasing sea level rise. It almost seems that in recent years the data has been "adjusted" to continue to keep the overall increase over the magical minimum of three millimeters per year. The whole thing becomes even clearer if the resultant slope for the different data versions is presented graphically.

&
Over the years can thus establish a "gradual" process of ever-new adjustments and corrections. We can therefore state that the raw data of sea level measurements show a rather flat course with an increase in the range of 0.5 to 1 millimeter per year. Only through a number of corrections that are based on assumptions which do not continue to increase does the "official" value become 3.1 mm per year.


However the deliberate corrupting of sea level data, always with an upward trend, doesn't stop there.

CU Sea Level Research Group;

What is glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), and why do you correct for it?

Quote:
The correction for glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) accounts for the fact that the ocean basins are getting slightly larger since the end of the last glacial cycle. GIA is not caused by current glacier melt, but by the rebound of the Earth from the several kilometer thick ice sheets that covered much of North America and Europe around 20,000 years ago. Mantle material is still moving from under the oceans into previously glaciated regions on land. The effect is that currently some land surfaces are rising and some ocean bottoms are falling relative to the center of the Earth (the center of the reference frame of the satellite altimeter). Averaged over the global ocean surface, the mean rate of sea level change due to GIA is independently estimated from models at -0.3 mm/yr (Peltier, 2001, 2002, 2009; Peltier & Luthcke, 2009). The magnitude of this correction is small (smaller than the ±0.4 mm/yr uncertainty of the estimated GMSL rate), but the GIA uncertainty is at least 50 percent. However, since the ocean basins are getting larger due to GIA, this will reduce by a very small amount the relative sea level rise that is seen along the coasts To understand the relative sea level effects of global oceanic volume changes (as estimated by the GMSL) at a specific location, issues such as GIA, tectonic uplift, and self attraction and loading (SAL, e.g., Tamisiea et al., 2010), must also be considered.
There are many different scientific questions that are being asked where GMSL measurements can contribute. We are focused on just a few of these:
How is the volume of the ocean changing?
How much of this is due to thermal expansion?
How much of this is due to addition of water that was previously stored as ice on land?
In order to answer these questions, we have to account for the fact that the ocean is actually getting bigger due to GIA at the same time as the water volume is expanding. This means that if we measure a change in GMSL of 3 mm/yr, the volume change is actually closer to 3.3 mm/yr because of GIA. Removing known components of sea level change, such as GIA or the solid earth and ocean tides, reveals the remaining signals contained in the altimetry measurement. These can include water volume changes, steric effects, and the interannual variability caused by events such as the ENSO. We apply a correction for GIA because we want our sea level time series to reflect purely oceanographic phenomena. In essence, we would like our GMSL time series to be a proxy for ocean water volume changes. This is what is needed for comparisons to global climate models, for example, and other oceanographic datasets


And there you have it. .3 mms are being added each year and cumulatively year on year because the the CU sea level alarmists want sea levels to be a proxy for the volume of the oceans. Nothing to do with maintaining accurate sea levels data which is what everybody wants to look at when making decisions on items that may be affected by sea level changes in the future.

The hubris and psychology behind something like this is unbelievable in it's arrogance and total stupidity.
These Colorado University scientists are collecting hundreds of millions of dollars to maintain an accurate sea level data base but they have decided that data base should be deliberately corrupted both short and long term to both accelerate the apparent rise in sea levels and to fill some other nebulous bit of so called climate science that has little to do with an accurate sea level data base.
And they act as though they believe they are above any demands for scientific integrity and will never be exposed and condemned for deliberately delivering false and fraudulent data to the people who pay for it, the public.

And we are supposed to "Trust" scientists!!

Top
#1100504 - 21/04/2012 09:22 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: ROM]
Dustydevil Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/04/2010
Loc: Darwin
Hi ROM.

Thanks for the links and the info. There seems to be quite a few variables that need to be taken into account when deriving a value for sea level so I'm not sure how we can be so confident in the final values.

The info from the Permanent Service For Mean Sea Level shows levels rising at some locations while falling at others. Again, I'm not sure I'd be confident in accepting a 'derived' value for sea level anymore than I'd feel confident in the artificial Global Average Temperature; both of which are man-made values and not actual real-life values. Nonetheless, interesting stuff.

Thanks for your assistance with the info. Keep up the great work.

Cheers

Top
#1100536 - 21/04/2012 12:50 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: Dustydevil]
ROM Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2007
Loc: Horsham in western Victoria
For those who might be interested in upgrading their knowledge on global Sea Levels and what is happening there and how those SL's are measured, the European and satellite based AVISO site has quite a lot of info.

There are links to the way satellites measure sea levels, ice and etc.
There is a mine of information when one clicks through the various menu headings; Applications, Missions, Altimetry and Doris, the last two are explanations on how it all works.

One of the first items to catch my eye and one in which most posters would be interested in was a "Phenomenal Seas" item, the recording from space of some super waves which are often just single rogue waves or ocean "Solitons" of immense size, power and height,
Rogue waves of this nature sink one super tanker or cargo ship on average each year.

Phenomenal seas*


To the actual Sea Level data from AVISO. Sea Views

First a map where you can see the quite large variations in sea levels across the World's oceans.

The changes in monthly Sea Levels from 1993 to 2010 in the Tropical Pacific can be followed by selecting the maps found on the AVISO ENSO pages [ which I could only find by going to Bob Tisdale's "Climate Observations" site. ]
An animation is available on You Tube by following the link in Tisdale's post.

The global changes in what appears to be daily Sea Levels back to 1992 are to be found here [ Linky ]

There are some peculiarities in that Sea Level map above.
The increases in sea levels are given in "mms per year" which from 1992 to the present would indicate a rise of a couple of metres in parts of the western Pacific in the Pacific Warm Pool region.

And that isn't the case at all.
The Indian Ocean and the Western Pacific's Warm Pool would both have increased Sea Levels in theory as the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Warm Pool have both been accumulating heat content for a number of year and so would have increased expansion of their waters and so higher Sea Levels measurements.
That applies to regions around the SW of Australia as well as the Indian Ocean warming spills into the Bight.

The central and Eastern Pacific indicate a long term reduction of Sea Levels in that region, therefore the probability of a cooling trend and a contracting water mass over the long term and therefore possibly / probably indicating the onset of the 30 or so years long Cool Negative phase of the PDO and a future increased incidence of the cool La Ninas in the central and eastern Pacific.

Something just does not stack up with that satellite map!
The western Pacific supposedly has had a very significant increase in Sea levels over a vast area but when one goes to the PSMSL for the seal level gauge data in the area of those supposed increases in sea levels. places such as Guam's and Chuuk's [ Truk, the great central \Pacific Japanese naval base of WW2 ] Kwajalein and Wake Island's sea level gauges there is evidence of some recent Sea Level increases but not to the extent that satellite map seems to imply.

Guam


Wake


Kwajelein


Dustydevil is right in his summation that there is no such thing as a single global temperature, something that quite a lot of climate scientists have been saying for some time. And maybe there is no such thing as a single global sea level particularly when we see how sea level data has been adjusted and changed to fullfill an apparent ideologically based position of the scientists in charge.




Edited by ROM (21/04/2012 12:53)

Top
#1100566 - 21/04/2012 15:31 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: ROM]
CeeBee Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/02/2012

ROM - you said:

"There are some peculiarities in that Sea Level map above.
The increases in sea levels are given in "mms per year" which from 1992 to the present would indicate a rise of a couple of metres in parts of the western Pacific in the Pacific Warm Pool region."

How did you get a SLR rise of a couple of metres?

Even @ the max amount of 12mm per year it would be 20 years(1992 - 2012) x 12mm per year = 240mm or 1/4 of 1 metre.

Top
#1100580 - 21/04/2012 17:26 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: CeeBee]
ROM Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2007
Loc: Horsham in western Victoria
Yes, you are correct this time.
The Sea level rise in the Pacific Warm Pool to the east of the Phillipines would be around 200 mms over the 19 years that that map covers.

Top
#1100858 - 23/04/2012 13:26 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: ROM]
CeeBee Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/02/2012

JPL’s Josh Willis Looks Ahead to Continuing Sea Level Rise

“While the rise of the global ocean has been remarkably steady for most of this time, every once in a while, sea level rise hits a speed bump,” it continued. In 2011, “ it’s been more like a pothole” as global sea level fell by about a quarter of an inch, or half a centimeter between the summers of 2010 and 2011.”
“So what’s up with the down seas, and what does it mean?”

http://www.yaleclimatemediaforum.org/201...sea-level-rise/

Top
#1104976 - 20/05/2012 21:29 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: CeeBee]
CeeBee Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/02/2012

That dip in SLR due to all the rain that fell over land causing all those devastating floods the last few years is on the up and up now that all that water has made it's way back into the oceans...



http://www.aviso.oceanobs.com/en/news/ocean-indicators/mean-sea-level/

Top
#1105048 - Yesterday at 11:47 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: CeeBee]
bd bucketingdown Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 7/02/2008
Loc: Eastern A/Hills SA
I rather doubt that the land water would make much difference at all really CB...Do you know how much volume of water is in the ocean!!! It is rather a very very very very very very very very very very very larger amount that the volume coming out of a river system!!!

Top
#1105063 - Yesterday at 13:14 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: bd bucketingdown]
CeeBee Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/02/2012
Read the post above my last one BD. It explains what happened the last few years due to the La Nina's and you'll also see this pic that shows all that extra water on the land.



See all that water on the land? That's a very very very large amount of water that was dumped on land. Now it has made it's way back into the oceans and lo and behold the sea levels rose. Amazing hey!

Top
#1105065 - Yesterday at 13:17 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: bd bucketingdown]
liberator Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/11/2010
Loc: Kyabram
I posted a link to this picture elseware on this site but thought it appropriate to post again here:

http://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap120515.html

Top
#1105069 - Yesterday at 13:32 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: CeeBee]
liberator Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/11/2010
Loc: Kyabram
Originally Posted By: CeeBee
Read the post above my last one BD. It explains what happened the last few years due to the La Nina's and you'll also see this pic that shows all that extra water on the land.



See all that water on the land? That's a very very very large amount of water that was dumped on land. Now it has made it's way back into the oceans and lo and behold the sea levels rose. Amazing hey!


I’m Sorry CB but when it comes to ocean volumes, the extra water on land due to La Nina in my opinion could not be the cause. World’s oceans make up 70% of the volume of the Earth, 30% volume - land mass - how much water had to be taken out of the oceans to result in the dip? The extra water surely would not be that significant. How much did the water vapour levels increase over that time? You comment that all the water landed on land resulting in a decrease in ocean levels just makes no sense to me whatsoever. What happens over the Monsoon seasons – does the ocean levels drop over this time period as well as surely there would be a considerable amount of water being dumped on land over those times? I’m not saying your wrong – it just doesn’t make sense – a little water on less than a third of the plant – land mass only, and maybe a further 30% of that land mass received that extra water.A lot of the Nina rain fell back into the oceans as well So how much extra water fell back into the oceans at the same time as indicated on the image you've quoted? You cant compare the land data without comapring it to sea data - whcih Im sure is not logged anywhere.. Do you have anything to substantiate your clams or are you just making an assumption? “a very very large amount of water” what volume – how much was dumped that could be directly attributed the sea level drop? There has to be some facts to back up the claim not just an assumption.


Edited by liberator (Yesterday at 13:40)

Top
#1105071 - Yesterday at 13:45 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: liberator]
bd bucketingdown Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 7/02/2008
Loc: Eastern A/Hills SA
And what about all thr drier than normal drought areas, as normal we have bothe fairly equally shown, they are subtracting from the volume.
And most of Australias excess water is still lying all over the inland anyway or has gone to replenish sub surface water and artesian basins.
Visit the Riverina NSW and you will see where lots of flooded land still exist. there are floods and there are droughts but on the mean they cancel each other out, as one would expect. Your idea has little going for it in my opinion CB!


Edited by bd bucketingdown (Yesterday at 13:46)

Top
#1105072 - Yesterday at 13:48 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: liberator]
liberator Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/11/2010
Loc: Kyabram
Ok have found your source of the graph and concur with their statements - however I would want to see some more quantifiable data to me it is just an assumption. Could you please post links to your sources so I can see for myself and not just snippets you choose to post and not have to go chasing the source material myself.

http://grace.jpl.nasa.gov/news/index.cfm?FuseAction=ShowNews&NewsID=53

We should see similar rises and falls over the other La Nina years as well - despite the last one being a strong Nina the same effect should be evident for each Nina year. Now what years did Nina’s fall over the period of the graph?


Also the Nina ran over two years - two in succession. That graph shows the extra water for one year - yet the sea levels have gone up - and there is still a lot of water yet to meet the sea and a lot is trapped inland in places like lake Eire as well as water that has not meet the ocean at all that has merly evaporated or sunk into the land
.


Edited by liberator (Yesterday at 13:54)

Top
#1105078 - Yesterday at 14:12 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: liberator]
CeeBee Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/02/2012
Hahaha - you said it is just an assumption that more water on land means less water in the ocean.

It is more than just an assumption - it is a fact!!

More water on land = less water in the ocean - Fact!

Less water on land = more water in the ocean - Fact!

Read the article I posted above a month ago!

http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1100858/CeeBee#Post1100858

http://www.yaleclimatemediaforum.org/201...sea-level-rise/




Top
#1105079 - Yesterday at 14:15 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: liberator]
bd bucketingdown Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 7/02/2008
Loc: Eastern A/Hills SA
As with my last post reasoning I still think that it is incorrect! How much of the Australian floods went back to the sea! Not that much...it is nonsense from folk sitting bgy computers continents away, who has no idea what goes on in the interior of Australia, and aN excuse for a fall in sea levels!


Edited by bd bucketingdown (Yesterday at 14:15)

Top
#1105080 - Yesterday at 14:21 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: bd bucketingdown]
bd bucketingdown Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 7/02/2008
Loc: Eastern A/Hills SA
The bulk of the water that falls in the outback of Australia never reaches the sea
it ends up in Lake Eyre, Channel Country, Huge very slow moving low depth water areas along darling, Lachlan, Murrumbidgee, Murray, Artesian basins, the water table, dams, etc, etc,
not much at all gets back to the ocean!

Top
#1105081 - Yesterday at 14:23 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: CeeBee]
liberator Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/11/2010
Loc: Kyabram
Yes and in 2012 there is still a hell a lot of water still on land due to the last lot of flooding yet the sea levels have risen - so when this extra water reaches the ocean the water levels will increase even further. And the graph is showing not water but soil moisture which is a different kettle of fish.

And Im quoting a reply from the page of the source material:

John T says:
February 3, 2012 at 6:36 pm
Looking at one year of data from March 2010 to March 2011 doesn’t explain the slow down in sea level rise since 2004. Here is the Envisat measurement showing that the Northern Hemisphere trended downward at -.301 mm/year while the Southern Hemisphere MSL trended upward +1.1 mm/year.

NH Trend:
http://www.aviso.oceanobs.com/fileadmin/...oGIA_Adjust.png

SH Trend:
http://www.aviso.oceanobs.com/fileadmin/...oGIA_Adjust.png

Envisat, Grace, Jason 2 and Argo are showing similar recent slow down to ~ .9 mm/year in recent years from a long term ~ 3 mm/year MSLR while Jason 1 seems to overstate the rise.

http://www.gfz-potsdam.de/portal/gfz/Struktur/Departments/Department+1/sec12/topics/gravity_field_determination/sea_level_budget/image_sea_level1/Grossbild;jsessionid=A829271989ABB972838F2C00C1465E2C?binary=true&status=300

Wouldn’t the effects of El Nino and La Nina shifts cancel each other out as far as influence in MSLR over the above 8 year period? The recent SST still shows overall warming over the last 8 years even with La Nina effects so what caused the slow down in MSLR?

http://weatherdem.files.wordpress.com/2012/01/surface-temperature-anomalies-hansen-201201.png



Edited by liberator (Yesterday at 14:27)

Top
#1105082 - Yesterday at 14:29 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: bd bucketingdown]
CeeBee Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/02/2012
All that extra rainfall was in many more places than just Australia BD. Look at all the blue spots in the picture.



See all the blue spots other than just Australia BD? There's blue bits over Brazil, Africa, Europe, Indonesia, PNG, North America..etc, etc, etc. All that extra water all over the land. Sea levels dropped, and now the water is making it's way back into the sea the levels go up! Simple really, a no brainer in fact!

Top
#1105083 - Yesterday at 14:33 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: CeeBee]
bd bucketingdown Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 7/02/2008
Loc: Eastern A/Hills SA
See the red spots everywhere! I don't take all the AGW experts say on face value


Edited by bd bucketingdown (Yesterday at 14:33)

Top
#1105085 - Yesterday at 14:39 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: CeeBee]
liberator Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/11/2010
Loc: Kyabram
And As I commented before - what about other Nina years - where is the data to prove it happens in those years as well - we should see the same thing happening over those years as well. Yes it was a strong La Nina year over 2011, but we also had another strong one 2012 - not as strong but still considerable flooding - so that water is still here as well as additional water from the ocean over 2011-12 so the sea levels should still be lower yet they have risen - did that Nina affect other countries. I’d like to see a GRACE chart from March 2011 to 2012 to see how much water (soil moisture) is still about. If its still high, which I'd expect, it to be then the argument is null and void as the water is still about. Always happy to be disprove but I need facts not just 1 twelve month period to "prove" an argument. I’d like to see a few more years’ data to make blanket statements as quoted. Like I said not saying your wrong - just need more evidence, which you seem to be quite capable of finding and posting



Top
#1105086 - Yesterday at 14:41 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: bd bucketingdown]
CeeBee Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/02/2012
Add nothing to the debate


Edited by BNE (Yesterday at 15:02)
Edit Reason: Mod edit

Top
#1105087 - Yesterday at 14:42 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: CeeBee]
liberator Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/11/2010
Loc: Kyabram
Very scientific - the numbers of red vs blue mean nothing its the values of the data - IE how much moisture there is/or is not.

For example:
Look I've got 6 $2 coins (red)and 20 5 cent coins (blue) so the 5 cent coins win (I have more) - but when you add the values I have $6 in $2 coins and $1.00 in 5 cent coins so which is worth more?


Edited by liberator (Yesterday at 14:44)

Top
#1105088 - Yesterday at 14:56 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: liberator]
bd bucketingdown Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 7/02/2008
Loc: Eastern A/Hills SA
I will leave you to your kiddy comments CB...not worth replying!

Top
#1105089 - Yesterday at 15:01 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: liberator]
CeeBee Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/02/2012
Being serious now - you guys refuse to accept the findings from experts in any scientific field to do with climate and I'm not going to knock myself out trying to get you to see reason. I'll leave you guys to go off down the garden path with your half backed theories whilst I indulge myself reading actual science from actual scientists.


Edited by BNE (Yesterday at 16:02)
Edit Reason: Mod edit - childish banter removed

Top
#1105094 - Yesterday at 15:26 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: CeeBee]
Southern Oracle Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2011
Loc: Southern Victoria
Without varifiable quantities , your experts are just theorising .... And more so clutching at straws to maintain/support their original half baked theories .
_________________________
Quote " If you want to save our world, you must hurry. We don't know how much longer we can withstand the nothing. "

Top
#1105101 - Yesterday at 15:45 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: CeeBee]
liberator Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/11/2010
Loc: Kyabram
Originally Posted By: CeeBee

The blue spots are bigger than the red spots so there!

Being serious now - you guys refuse to accept the findings from experts in any scientific field to do with climate and I'm not going to knock myself out trying to get you to see reason. I'll leave you guys to go off down the garden path with your half backed theories whilst I indulge myself reading actual science from actual scientists.


I’m not refusing to believe anything. I just don’t believe the data they show - a single 12 month snapshot explains the data and the data is not quantifiable and their analysis of the data is subjective not objective. They see some data and it “fits” their ideal of why the sea level dropped for 12 months but is it provable? We need more data to make a proper analysis of what had happened to the sea level over this time not just the snapshot and some climate scientist saying well this fits so this is what happened.

I question all science – that is how I have been scientifically trained, until there is undisputable proof of a theory we should always question, always analyse, always a find new data to fit or disprove a theory. That is what science is all about. Having a theory, testing it, if it passes then the theory is supported – NOT PROOVED, if it fails then find more data to test and if doesn’t fit then the theory is not a valid scientific argument.

I will still argue AGW is not a proven science there are too many variables too much chaos. “The science is not in”. The theory is still evolving, still being tested, still being challenged and that is how healthy science should work.

We had two years of Nina yet the sea levels have risen at the start of 2012 – what about all the water that still sitting on the continents should we not expect further increases in ocean levels in the coming months/year. Where is the GRACE data for March 2011-2012 what does that show?

I do not take any AGW science either pro or anti on face value – Some people are happy to take the PRO AGW experts arguments yet ignore or reject opposing expert arguments on AGW, Why?

Its always wise to question everything and not take it all for granted otherwise we're just sheeple in a paddock surrounded by wolves.



Top
#1105111 - Yesterday at 16:19 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: liberator]
CeeBee Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/02/2012


All well and good but until someone comes up with a plausible theory backed by evidence as to why SLR recently dropped then rose I'll be sticking with the current theory which is backed by plenty of evidence.

GRACE satellite data is there if you want to go and check it for yourself.

http://grace.jpl.nasa.gov/data/

Top
#1105136 - Yesterday at 18:26 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: bd bucketingdown]
CeeBee Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/02/2012
Originally Posted By: bd bucketingdown
The bulk of the water that falls in the outback of Australia never reaches the sea
it ends up in Lake Eyre, Channel Country, Huge very slow moving low depth water areas along darling, Lachlan, Murrumbidgee, Murray, Artesian basins, the water table, dams, etc, etc,
not much at all gets back to the ocean!


One word - evaporation- that is how water is transported from inland Australia to the sea.

I'm surprised you overlooked the important role that evaporation plays in the system!

Top
#1105140 - Yesterday at 19:17 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: CeeBee]
bd bucketingdown Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 7/02/2008
Loc: Eastern A/Hills SA
Obviously it evaporates that is my whole point!
or goes underground or is used by trees plants crops toen use, etc etc etc!


Edited by bd bucketingdown (Yesterday at 19:18)

Top
#1105141 - Yesterday at 19:21 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: bd bucketingdown]
CeeBee Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/02/2012
Originally Posted By: bd bucketingdown
Obviously it evaporates that is my whole point!
or goes underground or is used by trees plants crops toen use, etc etc etc!


No, the point you made was that water that falls in the outback of Australia never reaches the sea.

That is not correct. It evaporates and makes it way back into the sea via precipitation.

Top
#1105144 - Yesterday at 19:25 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: CeeBee]
bd bucketingdown Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 7/02/2008
Loc: Eastern A/Hills SA
You are revolving around the bush, large quantities of it stay for years in underground storage in sub-soil moisture in trees, in rivers, in billabongs in marshes, plants extra new trees shrubs, dams. Do we suddenly have all the water that falls go into the atmosphere and fall back into the sea in 12 months, no...your point is rubbish my friend!!!!! I'm not playing your games anymore...end of story!!!! Get some other mug to play yo0ur silly games on!!!!!!!

Top
#1105186 - Today at 07:43 Re: Sea Level Rise [Re: CeeBee]
adon Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/08/2004
Loc: Not tellin!
Originally Posted By: CeeBee
Originally Posted By: bd bucketingdown
Obviously it evaporates that is my whole point!
or goes underground or is used by trees plants crops toen use, etc etc etc!


No, the point you made was that water that falls in the outback of Australia never reaches the sea.

That is not correct. It evaporates and makes it way back into the sea via precipitation.
You forgot one word CeeBee... Eventually. BD is correct in saying that it will take year for all of the water to get back to the sea. You have not taken all of the recharge that will have taken place in aquifers all over Qld/NSW and Vic. Then many millions of hectares that have had a lot of water injected deep into the soil that will take several DRY years to be used up. If it keeps raining normally or above normal, this will not be used up to the same extent or could be added to further.

Top
Page 1 of 7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 >


Moderator:  BNE, Lindsay Knowles, Thunderstruck 
Who's Online
29 registered (Ben Quinn(Bodie), BuderimPete, Rhino, -Cosmic- (naz), rhythm_flavour, Things, thunderunder, Chris #3, kaz14, Rolling thunder, Warmfront, caffeinated, snowbaby, Chookie, nitso, Hunter, boomer, MathewTownsend, Ahab, Foehn Correspondent, Lee@Hazo, Weather Love, Cheers, split_city, joesk, CeeBee, 3 invisible), 141 Guests and 3 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
Adam H, Deejay58, Power Storm
Forum Stats
26570 Members
31 Forums
21108 Topics
1138159 Posts

Max Online: 2925 @ 2/02/2011 22:23
Satellite Image
Board Rules · Mark all read
Contact Us · Weatherzone · Top