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#1364550 - 06/02/2016 15:25 Re: Will we see 50 degrees celsius again in Australia [Re: TranslucidusW]
Blair Trewin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3699
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
Wouldn't be surprised to see something higher than 47.2 in the Pilbara or Gascoyne this week. The window for really extreme heat in southern Australia may be closing but that part of the world can get some of its highest temperatures in late summer (the Mardie 50.5 was in late February).

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#1364708 - 07/02/2016 16:28 Re: Will we see 50 degrees celsius again in Australia [Re: TranslucidusW]
pete28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2007
Posts: 1114
Loc: Christchurch, New Zealand
This is why I hate mainstream media - what a load of overhyped tripe!!

http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/western-...4d76802b7f18d4a

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#1365196 - 10/02/2016 06:37 Re: Will we see 50 degrees celsius again in Australia [Re: TranslucidusW]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
Check out this forecast. Makes Perth look quite cool in cpmparison, and also confirms Blair's statement that something over 47.2C is certainly possible, if not very likely.

http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/forecasts/gascoyne-junction.shtml
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#1365207 - 10/02/2016 09:14 Re: Will we see 50 degrees celsius again in Australia [Re: TranslucidusW]
pete28 Offline
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Registered: 08/01/2007
Posts: 1114
Loc: Christchurch, New Zealand
With 850hpa temps of around 32C on Thursday and Friday right over the top of Gascoyne Junction certainly a 49C is in the realms of possibility but unfortunately with it being 100m asl this will knock 1C off the maximum temp so I just can't see Gascoyne Junction or Emu Creek hitting much past the high 48C...

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#1365275 - 10/02/2016 19:33 Re: Will we see 50 degrees celsius again in Australia [Re: TranslucidusW]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
Yeah Pete that is true. I'd say 49C is a small chance. 50C is no way. It amazes me just how hard it actually is to reach 50C. 49 ain't uncommon but 50 is pretty rare. Maybe some of the hot spots like Roebourne, Onslow and Mardie will have a better chance at 49C since they're right near sea level, but also near the ocean. So the seabreeze would have to stay away.
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#1365283 - 10/02/2016 20:23 Re: Will we see 50 degrees celsius again in Australia [Re: TranslucidusW]
wet sky Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/10/2015
Posts: 626
Loc: NENSW-Wet Subtropics
I think Gascoyne Junction will be the warmest area later this week. If marble bar will only reach the mid to high 40s as predicted (which is still pretty darn hot), even if the seabreeze does stay away from the Pilabara coast it won't be hotter than 48 in Roebourne and surrounds. Still its pretty good heat.

What I'm baffled at is the fact that 47.2 is the warmest so far. Little monsoonal cloud around, and El-nino conditions should make a warmer than average summer.

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#1365287 - 10/02/2016 21:25 Re: Will we see 50 degrees celsius again in Australia [Re: TranslucidusW]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
Yeah I just checked the models and there's nowhere near as much heat in those places. I should've checked the models before I made that statement. While the spots I mentioned are usually hot spots, the focus of this heat is a bit further south.
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#1365337 - 11/02/2016 13:46 Re: Will we see 50 degrees celsius again in Australia [Re: TranslucidusW]
kizz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/02/2002
Posts: 1868
Loc: Beacon Hill, Sydney 152m asl
We might as well forget about Gascoyne Junction as a reliable site; it is a joke now. Huge gaps filled with sporadic readings. Reminds me of Charlotte Pass's descent into neglect.

Anyway, some sites in the Pilbara already getting into the mid forties at half ten. Worth keeping an eye on it today before the sea breeze arrives.

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#1365494 - 12/02/2016 16:53 Re: Will we see 50 degrees celsius again in Australia [Re: TranslucidusW]
Blair Trewin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3699
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
47.8 at Mardie as of 1.30pm, and might not be done with yet....

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#1365505 - 12/02/2016 18:31 Re: Will we see 50 degrees celsius again in Australia [Re: TranslucidusW]
Blair Trewin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3699
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
Looks like it is done with now.

You have to go back to 1999-2000 for the last time that it failed to reach 48 anywhere in Australia during a summer, but historically a seasonal peak in the 47s isn't especially unusual, and there are a few summers where it has failed to reach 47.

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#1365510 - 12/02/2016 18:49 Re: Will we see 50 degrees celsius again in Australia [Re: Blair Trewin]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
Originally Posted By: Blair Trewin
Looks like it is done with now.

You have to go back to 1999-2000 for the last time that it failed to reach 48 anywhere in Australia during a summer, but historically a seasonal peak in the 47s isn't especially unusual, and there are a few summers where it has failed to reach 47.


Are higher temps more common in El Nino? I would think so, but this would definitely buck the trend. Possibly because of the Indian Ocean Dipole?
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#1365791 - 15/02/2016 13:08 Re: Will we see 50 degrees celsius again in Australia [Re: TranslucidusW]
Blair Trewin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3699
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
Looks like 47.8 is going to be the highest from this event, at Mardie last Friday and Emu Creek on Saturday.

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#1399734 - 01/01/2017 10:08 Re: Will we see 50 degrees celsius again in Australia [Re: TranslucidusW]
pete28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2007
Posts: 1114
Loc: Christchurch, New Zealand
Looking like some serious heat building up over the Onslow/Mardie area of the Pilbara the next few days, potentially some temps around the 32C mark at 850hpa so a low 49C could be a possibility if the conditions are right with no sea breeze...

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#1403526 - 21/01/2017 17:19 Re: Will we see 50 degrees celsius again in Australia [Re: TranslucidusW]
StormCapture Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1644
Loc: Uleybury
I think some areas have recorded 50 lots of times but there has no weather station to be there to actually record such a temperature, if you were good enough what you'd do is analyze the charts in detail and try to get approx the location where possibly 50 will be recorded and take out a personal weather station preferably a Davis due to their accuracy and park your bum there for a while, as long as you have AC and plenty of water, petrol and food and of course Patience to wait it out and experience the outback heat or you just leave it there all day and come back later when its cooler to retrieve the data.

Lake Eyre is one good possible spot to record a 50, I remember 2014 BOM forecased 50C there but no one knew the max there.

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#1403661 - 23/01/2017 08:46 Re: Will we see 50 degrees celsius again in Australia [Re: TranslucidusW]
pete28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2007
Posts: 1114
Loc: Christchurch, New Zealand
Yeah take a portable weather station and sit at the lowest point possible and I'm sure you would see a 50C temp over a 5-10 year period. Apart from Lake Eyre though the BOM have everywhere else covered quite well...

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#1403667 - 23/01/2017 09:47 Re: Will we see 50 degrees celsius again in Australia [Re: TranslucidusW]
Blair Trewin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3699
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
I'm not so sure. Lake Eyre is 50-70 metres lower than Marree, Moomba and Birdsville, so there's no particular reason to expect that it would reach values more than 0.5-1 degrees higher than occur at those sites. (Extreme high maximum temperatures, away from coasts, tend to be pretty spatially coherent with a lapse rate of around 1 degree per 100 metres).

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#1403744 - 23/01/2017 18:48 Re: Will we see 50 degrees celsius again in Australia [Re: TranslucidusW]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4361
Loc: Brisbane
Been following this thread for a while now.

With all the record temps being set in recent years you would think we would have hit 50C at least at one of the official stations.

I'd be curious as to how far back we need to go for an official max of 50c or more at any Australian location.
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1403745 - 23/01/2017 18:50 Re: Will we see 50 degrees celsius again in Australia [Re: TranslucidusW]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4361
Loc: Brisbane
A little Google searching helps.

Moomba hit 49.6 in 2013 apparently but you need to go back to 1960 for the last time a max over 50C was recorded which was 50.3C at Oodnadatta in January 1960.
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1403749 - 23/01/2017 19:17 Re: Will we see 50 degrees celsius again in Australia [Re: TranslucidusW]
kizz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/02/2002
Posts: 1868
Loc: Beacon Hill, Sydney 152m asl
Google is wrong! poke

1998 - Mardie got to 50.5 degrees.

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/climate/station.jsp?lt=site&lc=5008

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#1403750 - 23/01/2017 19:32 Re: Will we see 50 degrees celsius again in Australia [Re: TranslucidusW]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4361
Loc: Brisbane
It must have been have been referring to the South Australian record then.

Personally the hottest I ever experienced outside of a Sauna was about 42-43C growing up as a kid in Wollongong. I was out playing golf and we would wet our shirt in the sprinkler and it would be dry by the next hole.

I simply cannot imagine how someone could survive a day in that sort of heat.


Edited by Locke (23/01/2017 19:34)
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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