GFS going for 524 thickness well over Tas next Sunday/Monday - it is possible from that setup to see a flake or two around sea level especially in southern Tas.

Be interesting to see how this pans out. AXS, EC & GFS all going for a pretty good change at that same time. Not often we see such agreement so far out.

Well the models certainly put a deep shade of blue over Tassie, which suggests 850's approaching -10 or so. That's around ballpark for sea level snow if you get a little mixing, but it won't accumulate.

Don't worry S4S - they get excited (rightly so I reckon) seeing flakeage that low. Models have changed a bit this morning and their scenarios varying a bit from each other. Was only to be expected. Makes me wish I was able to get to Lake Dobson at Mt Field again.

EC and ACCESS both bottoming out around -4 on latest runs, certainly cold but not enough for sea level snow.

Thanks Blair - after living in Tassie for 10 years as a snow fanatic - I learned quickly that the 5200 thickness is relatively often shown near Tas but usually gets further away with model runs closer to the arrival time.

But it usually gets people excited. Sadly though the little snow fanatic group down there is now largely fragmented geographically and less chatty than it was. Shame really because the weather down there is often interesting but rarely reported or noticed out of Tas.

Yes -4 is way too warm, consistent with the models backing off for NSW as well. Looks like some snow for the Alps but that's about it.

EDIT: I'd welcome a Tassie contributor with open arms, but I've read there was a blue or two in the past and that's why they don't frequent here, same as most of the WA folk. 'Bloody eastern staters' seems to be a common theme.

There was a core of contributors until a few years back, didn't like some proposed changes in these forums and took their bat & ball elsewhere. There was a strong core of contributors (mainly centred around Hobart)on that site for a few years but several sets of people moved back to the mainland (incl me) one moved from Fern Tree (on Mt Wellington) to a less snowy site and started a new business, one strong contributor just virtually stopped posting, and lately another strong contributor (Snowies) moved away from Hobart to the north of tas and the weather there is different to the south plus just being away has seen him cut back and only a couple of blokes really now post the most but it's died back probably through a lack of general contributors, being busy and not many newcomers showing much interest. I still go there from time to time but not as much as when I lived there.

I have come back more to WZ since moving back to the big island and Snowies has a peek in here from time to time as well. Several other Tassies peek here but rarely post.

I would like to see a stronger Tassie interest again - I post in the Tas thread hoping to generate wider interest.

RE the 850 temps etc - experience taught me that sometimes, places in Tas do better than expected from what the models say. I saw snow fall many times in Mt Field when the models had no traditional hint of it. Lots of microclimates down there with all those mountains and valleys. Sometimes surpirses happen.

Looks like Tassie will do very well from this next cold change Sunday night into Monday. All the cold air is being squeezed down there with little getting to the mainland. Tassi does well in those situations. Yes would be good to here some news about the snow from the Tasmanians.

EC still has 520 not too far south of Tas - snow could fall to lowish elevations eg 300 to 400m in some southern areas.

Couple of the guys in Tas going for snow to 250m & good accumulations above 400 - in places maybe 20 - 30 cm.

Looks ok, probably snow to 300m in the far south/south west and 400-500m in the north west. Looks quite westerly, good for Cradle but probably not much through the south east (Hobart, be lucky to see 5mm I reckon). North west should get some rain tomorrow and again Sunday morning.

Highly fragmented these days, doesn't help having two forums to post in. Started to die the day Daryl, Myself and you all pulled back for different reasons. Without some lively forecasting discussions leading up to the event the responses to topics don't get underway til whatever system arrives.

G'day DL - it's a bit sad really - much of the time now the other forum is a 2 person show, it's a shame because that little snow group gave us a lot of fun and a great interest.

I thought I would try to get interest going here because of a wider audience who may well learn that Tassie has some great weather - we may get a bigger group of interested people.

I would so love to be on Mt Wellington or up at Lake Dobson over the next week down there. Wellington so harsh and cruel at times (except the Chalet!!) and Lake Dobson is usually calm in even the nastiest gales with snow just gently falling down and piling up into that sheltered spot - lovely when the lake is snowed over/icy too.

Watched some video of Ridgeway snow a few nights ago - miss that house tremendously.

The south of Tas should see a number of days of snow (at times) out of this system. Just a matter of finding the right cloud. Cradle definitely do quite ok out of this. Time for a walk around Dove Lake in Snow there DL.

What was also fun was that the BOM also got involved with our group. It was nice to be taken seriously by them and have them use us as a resource for information as to where it was snowing and how much etc. Enjoyed the trips to the Bom in Hobart. Is Simon still doing ABC weather?

Waratah in the North West might get a bit of snow @ approx 500 - 600 metres. Showers going through now in NW flow.

Won't be getting near Dobson, is a long way round and I have 0 time, moving house and then heading to Darwin for 2 weeks then back to melb for a weekend then home by the 4th of July.

Yeah, Sun-Tues looks ok, two changes instead of 1. Had a small amount of rain today but the weather has been mild the last day or two as the cold change approaches.
Simon is still on the news, still a face for radio

Waratah will do pretty well, seems to get more than it's fair share given the south-westerly nature of most cold changes.

Looking at the models again this morning there will be two distinct periods of very heavy low level snow in Tasmania, Sunday night and then through the day on Tuesday. Could see accumulations of well over 50cm on higher ground say anything from 1000m. Tasmania really is ideally positioned for these cold changes.

Snowies - oooh gaawd don't mention the radio thing again!!

Waratah does well because its near the edge of a plateau area that has plent of uplift. At 500 odd metres it would get as much or more snow than somewhere like Oberon up here at 1100 metres. Certainly frequency of snow falling would be quite high in winter at Waratah. However it could quickly wash away in the next NW warm rain band.

Snowmi - Tas gets lots of little "flick through" changes and some areas can get brief snow even when the 540 is not over Tas. However like I said above - Tassie can have a good snow dump followed soon after by warm rain.

Dave, yes it surprised me when I was down there in early September how effective and frequent those little cold changes were that only just reach Tassie. But as you say they were quickly replaced by warmer air again, that is a shame. I saw one great cold change that dumped heaps around Lake Saint Clair, then by the next day it was all wet and melting at Cradle Mountain, then within a couple of days another big dump around Mount Field.

Still I think this series of changes from Sunday night will be pretty good for Tassie with barely a break for a quite a few days.

The fact that this region is open and close to a NW aspect/Ocean and the Humidity it would drag in doesn't help . The SE mainland Alps benefit that the warmer NW inflow is usually Drier . And moist SE/ocean effected air is usually Cooller .
That Humidity would lead to wetter snow , which wouldn't freeze as easy . And inturn unlike many mainland area , the ground wouldn't freeze as easy , melting the snow quicker . This low could be the exception , especially if late next week comes off . ( Short period between cold events ) .One to watch .

Theres a great mountain down there - Mt Rufus which is in the best spot to catch snow. It apparently has the highest snow accumulation in Tas and is right beside the highway to the West Coast. Many plans were made for a ski field there but because it's world heritage - no go. Many people believe it would be the most viable site in Tas.

It sits smack on the Western edge of the central peak plateau and gets huge uplift from the western quadrants. It's not the highest peak (1400's) but gets regular heavy snow.

The wind moves from NW to SW so often down there that snow doesn't get the chance to really solidify in many areas. However Rufus keeps it's snow drifts well after winter most years.

Mainlanders wouldn't believe how quickly and how often the changes flick through down there. However this week sees a very large region of cold air over or near tas for much of the week. A few snowy bursts will come through.