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#987567 - 04/05/2011 15:47 Re: Temperature trends [Re: Arnost]
bd bucketingdown Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2008
Posts: 6033
Loc: Eastern A/Hills SA
USA temp records do not show increase in hot max temps!

low min follow.

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#989360 - 13/05/2011 18:23 Re: Temperature trends [Re: bd bucketingdown]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3711
Loc: Buderim


Uah temp is 0.12 for April.

My predicted value for April: 0.16

Future months should not see much warming as La Nina influence drags out:

May: 0.09
Jun: 0.07
Jul: 0.13
Aug: 0.10
Sep: 0.23
Oct: 0.21

As I predicted, this La Nina is well on the way towards being the hottest La Nina since humans started recording global temperature. Many deniers have been confidently predicting a cooling trend for a while, but we fail to see the cooling that they predict.

And on this forum most members were quite confident that we would see further cooling during January 2008. See this old forum thread for specifics: (link)

Also in on DrRoy Spencer's blog Joe Bastardi predicts:

3) Global temp crashes to post 97-98 nino levels by March 2011. with 50% chance of it reaching as low as post Pinitubo levels for at least 3 months of next year ( shorter term forecast

(link)

And I said that reaching anything near as low as post Pinitubo levels would be impossible, and that we probably wouldn't even reach 2008 levels, let along the 99/00 levels that Joe was confident of.
I was right.

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#989826 - 16/05/2011 14:20 Re: Temperature trends [Re: Mike Hauber]
ROM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/01/2007
Posts: 6628
Sometimes you just have to laugh when you come across a tongue in cheek comment like this that uses a very deliberate cherry picked start period. crazy
But just maybe there is a trend and a message there that we shouldn't dismiss lightly as it just may presage a glimpse of the future temperature regime as in a much colder climate which I for one dread as more warmth and warming is what this world wants to enable it to feed itself.

Quote:
US Winter Temperatures Plummeting

Over the last decade, winter temperatures in the US have been falling at a rate of 41 degrees per century.

Our “top rated” scientists say that the heavy snow in recent winters is due to global warming.

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#989840 - 16/05/2011 14:53 Re: Temperature trends [Re: ROM]
Keith Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/12/2001
Posts: 6453
Loc: Kings Langley, NSW
That's because they always say that global warming brings about more extremes of heat and cold.

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#989900 - 16/05/2011 20:52 Re: Temperature trends [Re: Keith]
__PG__ Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/02/2010
Posts: 706
Has anyone read Anthony Watt's new peer reviewed paper regarding the state of the US Surface Temperature record?

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#989944 - 17/05/2011 09:53 Re: Temperature trends [Re: __PG__]
_Johnno_ Offline
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Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1745
This is gonna shock few people but 8 out of the past 9 months (Bar January) Australia has been colder than normal constantly recording below average (Mean) temps as a whole since August last Year and the way things are going this month may be added onto that list which would make it 9 out of the past 10 months
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#989947 - 17/05/2011 10:00 Re: Temperature trends [Re: _Johnno_]
_Johnno_ Offline
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Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1745


Edited by _Johnno_ (17/05/2011 10:05)
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#989963 - 17/05/2011 12:01 Re: Temperature trends [Re: _Johnno_]
_Johnno_ Offline
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Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1745
Melbourne coming out of rare early-season cold
Press Release, Tuesday May 17, 2011 - 11:22 EST

Melbourne has just had its longest run of cold days this early in the year since 1960, and after almost two weeks it's finally warming above 16 degrees, according to weatherzone.com.au.

"The cold of the last 12 days is more typical of June or July," Weatherzone meteorologist Brett Dutschke said.

"Southerly winds have been the norm since Thursday the 5th of May, a result of frequent cold fronts, which have kept skies cloudy for most of the time until now," Dutschke said.

Melbourne has only averaged about two-and-a-half hours of sunshine per day in this time, one-and-a-half hours less sunshine than average.

The coldest day in this 12-day period was Wednesday the 11th, when it only reached a maximum of 12.2 degrees, four-and-a-half degrees below the long-term average.

"This was an unusually cold day for this time of year, the coldest day this early in the year since 1970. It came in the wake of the strongest front we have experienced since last winter. It was such a strong front that it brought record early-season cold to the far northern tropics, including Darwin."

For Melburnians, they are finally starting to feel some warmth, a bit more each day.

"The stagnant weather pattern is finally budging. A high pressure system is moving from our west and is heading east, which will allow skies to clear and winds to turn more northerly in the next few days," Dutschke said.

"We will give 20 degrees a nudge, most likely on Saturday when northerlies pick up, just ahead of another colder change. The change will bring some rain, possibly some alpine snow, but the cold to follow should come and go quicker than the last cold spell."

- Weatherzone

© Weatherzone 2011
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#989987 - 17/05/2011 14:53 Re: Temperature trends [Re: _Johnno_]
__PG__ Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/02/2010
Posts: 706
And your point is Johnno?

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#989998 - 17/05/2011 15:49 Re: Temperature trends [Re: __PG__]
_Johnno_ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1745
No point PG but this is the temp trend thread right? Well it was last time I looked. I'm just putting the facts & stats up there like everyone else does in this thread, if you or others feel the need to argue it whether for or against I'm not stopping you


Edited by _Johnno_ (17/05/2011 15:51)
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#990049 - 17/05/2011 22:23 Re: Temperature trends [Re: _Johnno_]
Vlasta Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/01/2008
Posts: 972
Loc: Melbourne Seaford
Thx a lot Johnno . Your link is helpfull .
I cant even find on BOM month to date anomalies I dunno , so please .

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#992558 - 31/05/2011 13:12 Re: Temperature trends [Re: Vlasta]
_Johnno_ Offline
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Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1745
Top End struck by coldest May on record
Press Release, Tuesday May 31, 2011 - 10:09 EST
Darwin and other parts of the Top End have just had their coldest May on record, according to weatherzone.com.au.

And this comes after the coldest April in five years, so it's been cooling down rather quickly since March, which was warmer than normal.

This May was more than two degrees colder than average by night and more than a degree colder than average by day.

Overnight minimums averaged 19.9 degrees, which equals the record low for May, equal to May 1999.

Daytime maximum temperatures averaged just under 31 degrees, the lowest in May since 1968.

Combining overnight and daytime temperatures it turned out to be the equal coldest May on record, averaging just 25.3 degrees, almost two degrees colder than the long-term norm.

May 2011 was equally as cold as May 1960.

Elsewhere in the Top End, Katherine has had its coldest May in more than 20 years. Katherine's overnight minimums averaged just 14 degrees, about two-and-a-half degrees colder than the long-term average of 16.7. Katherine's daytime maximums averaged just under 30 degrees, more than two degrees colder than the long-term average.

"The cold has affected every district in the Northern Territory due to persistent southeasterly winds which have been very dry, a result of three major cold fronts across southeastern Australia in the last three weeks," Weatherzone meteorologist Brett Dutschke said.

Alyangula on Groote Eylandt and Wollogorang have both had their coldest May nights in 29 years of records. Brunette Downs has had its coldest May days in 45 years of records and Tennant Creek its coldest May nights in 42 years of records.

"The southeasterlies for most of the month have given us quite a wind chill as well, especially in the Alice, where they've had a record run of frosty mornings," Dutschke said.

This morning was the fifth consecutive morning of sub-zero temperatures in Alice Springs, a new May record. The previous record May run was four mornings, in 1976.

"This would even be unusual for June, it's more typical of July."

Overall this month it has been the coldest May in 11 years for Alice Springs, in terms of nighttime and daytime temperatures combined.

"Looking ahead, we'll only see gradual warming over the interior in the next few days as southeasterly winds ease but another burst of southeasterlies from Monday will bring us some more chilly weather through to the following weekend," Dutschke said.

- Weatherzone

© Weatherzone 2011
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#992559 - 31/05/2011 13:12 Re: Temperature trends [Re: _Johnno_]
_Johnno_ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1745
Melbourne's gloomy May - coldest in 41 years
Press Release, Tuesday May 31, 2011 - 12:09 EST
A lack of sunshine has contributed to Melbourne having its coldest May days in 41 years, according to weatherzone.com.au.

The city averaged a maximum temperature of 16.3 degrees, only 0.4 of a degree colder than the long-term norm, but still the coldest since 1970.

"Cloud cover has been a significant contributor to the daytime cold. We've had an hour-and-a-half less sunshine per day, giving us many gloomy days. The long-term May average is four hours of sunshine per day," Weatherzone meteorologist Brett Dutschke said.

"Cloud has certainly been a feature because southerly winds have been the norm since the 5th of May, a result of three strong cold fronts," Dutschke said.

"There was also a particularly long cold spell, a 12-day stretch from the 5th to 16th in which it didn't warm past 16 degrees, the longest cold run this early in the year since 1960. It was more typical of June or July."

The coldest day was Wednesday the 11th, when it only reached a maximum of 12.2 degrees, four-and-a-half degrees below the long-term average.

"This was unusually cold for this time of year. It came in the wake of the strongest front we have experienced since last winter. It was such a strong front that it brought snow to Orange in central New South Wales and record early-season cold to the far northern tropics, including Darwin."

The effects have been felt across much of Victoria, especially inland. Ballarat has also had its coldest May days since 1970, averaging a maximum of just 12.3 degrees, 1.3 degrees below the long-term average.

"The extra cloud in Victoria meant nights were not that cold, in general," Dutschke said.

Melbourne's overnight minimum averaged 9.6 degrees, one degree above the long-term norm, equally cold as May 2009, and not as cold as the 9.0 degrees the previous May.

With all the cloud about this month, Melbourne had 13 rain-days, just one fewer than the long-term monthly average. There was 68mm of rain, 12mm more than average and the wettest May in 11 years. In May 2000, 91mm was recorded.

"Looking ahead to winter, Melbourne and most of Victoria should gain close to their long-term average. We are likely to continue to get regular cold fronts, which are typically our main source of winter rain, especially in non-La Nina times, like now. Regarding temperatures, it is also looking pretty normal for both days and nights. We will get our usual cold periods because of the fronts passing through, but overall it should turn out near-average," Dutschke said.

- Weatherzone

© Weatherzone 2011
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#992563 - 31/05/2011 13:16 Re: Temperature trends [Re: _Johnno_]
_Johnno_ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1745
Its offical.. Australia has now recorded 9 of the past 10 months of temps being below average with only exception being January
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#992600 - 31/05/2011 14:57 Re: Temperature trends [Re: _Johnno_]
_Johnno_ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1745
Victoria on track for cool autumn
Helen Vines, Tuesday May 31, 2011 - 13:14 EST
Victoria is heading for its fourth coolest autumn on record.

The Bureau of Meteorology says daytime temperatures were up to two degrees cooler than average in most places around the state.

A few locations, including Mt Buller and Avalon Airport, are on track to record their coolest autumn maximum temperatures ever.

Rainfall has been close to average, except in west Gippsland, where Mt Baw Baw recorded the largest total for the season with over 500 millimetres.

Bureau climatologist Jonathan Pollock says the end of La Nina and extra cloud cover in parts of the state have contributed to the cool weather.

"What we've seen lately plays into the historical context of what we expect, that coming out of a strong La Nina, we would normally expect the daytime temps in autumn to be cooler than usual," he said.

Mr Pollock says the cooler autumn temperatures are very unusual, but winter looks like going the other way.

"The outlook for winter is favouring warmer than average night-time and daytime temperatures," he said.

"That's based on the sea surface temperature pattern in the Indian and Pacific oceans."
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#992603 - 31/05/2011 15:09 Re: Temperature trends [Re: _Johnno_]
retired weather man Offline
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Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 5054
Loc: Wynnum
Did you read the above Julia??..
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#992749 - 31/05/2011 20:16 Re: Temperature trends [Re: retired weather man]
_Johnno_ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1745
An early winter for Queensland
Simon Li, Tuesday May 31, 2011 - 18:12 EST
Temperatures across inland Queensland and the tropical coast have been consistently below average this autumn.

With daytime and overnight temperatures combined, it has been Mt Isa's coolest autumn since records began 44 years ago.

Daytime temperatures in Mt Isa averaged 28.5 degrees this autumn, which is the coolest on record. Overnight minimums averaged 15.7 degrees, which tied with 1997 as the lowest on record. This morning it plumetted to a chilly 1.8 degrees, which is twelve below the norm, the coldest May morning on record and astonishingly also eight degrees below the winter average.

Townsville's average daytime maximum temperature this autumn was 28.5 degrees, which is their coolest in 46 years.

Winds over Queensland have tended southeasterly during autumn bringing cooler air up from the south, causing these unusually chilly temperatures.

The cold spell is likely to continue into June, at least as far as overnight temperatures are concerned. The end of La Nina combined with a general drying trend going into winter will keep skies clearer overnight. The lack of insulating cloud will allow minimum temperatures to drop.

- Weatherzone

© Weatherzone 2011




Edited by _Johnno_ (31/05/2011 20:16)
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#992756 - 31/05/2011 21:06 Re: Temperature trends [Re: retired weather man]
ColdsnapIII Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/01/2007
Posts: 6500
Loc: Mount Macedon, VIC
Originally Posted By: retired weather man
Did you read the above Julia??..


Bureau climatologist Jonathan Pollock says the end of La Nina and extra cloud cover in parts of the state have contributed to the cool weather.


Nothing to do with the climate change debate. Cloud cover will reduce temperatures at any rate, particularly when it is associated with one of the strongest La Ninas of our lifetimes.


Edited by ColdsnapIII (31/05/2011 21:07)

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#992771 - 31/05/2011 22:18 Re: Temperature trends [Re: ColdsnapIII]
_Johnno_ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1745
Yes Coldsnap it may be the case until March but not so for April and May where the Country has dried up been alot less cloud and the Minimum average temp for Australia has plummeted for both months so other factors are heavily involved here and little to do with La Nina past 2 months but I agree other months heavy cloud cover and rains kept the Maximum temps down
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#992776 - 31/05/2011 23:30 Re: Temperature trends [Re: _Johnno_]
Vlasta Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/01/2008
Posts: 972
Loc: Melbourne Seaford
Iam sure it was due to positioning of LWT over WA , most probably due to NINA .It had been stuck there since aug or sep .Perths never ending summer comes to my mind .
Elders stopped a while ago to post where those LWT are . When resumed it was still at WA (2 weeks ago ? ), now it is eastern Australia .
Other troughs obviously moved too .
Notes here
http://www.eldersweather.com.au/raindates.jsp?lc=v00&dc=disableCookies

Then even Einstain grand grand grand son , would ask a question , who is the Wacko , looking at the rain forecast ?


Edited by Vlasta (31/05/2011 23:35)

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