Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc)

Posted by: ColdFront

Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 31/12/2017 07:04

Welcome to 2018 and happy new year. Please remember that the admin of this site have banned global warming discussion on this forum so kindly take it elsewhere.

The official ENSO status at time of writing is Weak LaNina and there is division about its effect on certain areas of Australia.

I thought I'd start with BoM's rainfall probabilities for Jan-March issued on the 21st of December for the sake of reference in a few months time.


The 30 day SOI



and BoM's most recent ENSO update.



...and October rainfall which broke records around the Wide Bay region. This LaNina was very late developing.



..and November


Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 01/01/2018 14:04

Current WV image, shows the ex TC Hilda drifting over NE SA, and plenty of convection happening in NW Qld - ...and the ex Qld coastal ridge pushed up North (well for now at least):

Posted by: Long Road Home

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 01/01/2018 14:24

I didn't even realise the areas near and around T'sville and Cairns got record rains in Oct as well. Nov above average too, so even if Jan-Apr are average or slightly below, they'll finish with an above avg wet season.

In other news, the disturbance on the NT/QLD border is getting close to the GOC potentially developing into a TC, swinging around the NW and doing a Hilda. Just a theoretical.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 01/01/2018 14:35

December wasn't so great though in many parts of NQ (we did well here in Wide Bay) and areas like Townsville are off a low base in October also.

Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 01/01/2018 15:58

That trough pushing north is what EC said would drag the monsoon down. That MSC on southern GoC looks like a continental squallline often associated with the northward moving trough developing into a monsoon trough.
Posted by: Long Road Home

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 01/01/2018 16:06

NE NSW/SE QLD getting their severe storms on an almost daily basis, giant hail at Kempsey and few other places as we speak - typical of La Nina.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 01/01/2018 16:48

LRH the problem as I see it is this: people keep judging (or expecting) this La Niña to behave like a full blown late Dec / early Jan La Niña when by ‘age’ it is in fact only an ‘October aged’ La Niña

Whether it has time to explode into the mature stage time will tell. If it does, and those SST’s remain off the east coast, then look out.

Compare standard La Niña spring rainfall



To 2017



Still looks pretty La Nina’ish to me, even with the late start.
Posted by: Long Road Home

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 01/01/2018 16:57

Indeed, they're also pointing out mostly the negatives and ignoring those big positive falls, even if some are not widespread, are still significant. My bet is a change to troughy conditions for the east coast from about mid-Jan. EC is hinting around the 10th.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 01/01/2018 17:27

December rainfall for eastern Australia was 23.8mm below average - 33% less rain than normal, or 29th driest December out of 118 years of record. Despite this some are ignoring the big picture and claiming that increased rainfall in their backyards reflects increased moisture supplied by La Nina....

For the last few months:

Dec -23.8
Nov -3.3
Oct +33.3
Sep -16

Total for complete months since nino 3.4 went below 0 (mid August) is 10mm below average.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 01/01/2018 17:38

And right on queue....

They’re all over the place this mob - one minute “one months great rain doesn’t make it a La Niña” then “one months bad rain means his La Niña is a dud..” sigh wish they’d make their minds up.

Meanwhile it just keeps rolling on, with deep active trough and another day of supercells across QLD and NE NSW.
Posted by: Long Road Home

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 01/01/2018 17:41

Ext-GFS will make them make up their minds if it comes off, NW all the way to E NSW under water with that prediction laugh
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 01/01/2018 17:42

GFS is predicting another big trade wind burst shortly.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 01/01/2018 18:39

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
December rainfall for eastern Australia was 23.8mm below average - 33% less rain than normal, or 29th driest December out of 118 years of record. Despite this some are ignoring the big picture and claiming that increased rainfall in their backyards reflects increased moisture supplied by La Nina....

For the last few months:

Dec -23.8
Nov -3.3
Oct +33.3
Sep -16

Total for complete months since nino 3.4 went below 0 (mid August) is 10mm below average.


23mm below normal. For the whole of easte...rn Australia, ....hmm to state a deficiency in terms of mm rain, can I assume that you believe the whole east coast of Aust. experiences identical rainfall averages?
Posted by: RC

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 01/01/2018 19:23

I was under the understanding storm activity is generally not indicative of either an El Nino or a La Nina.

La Nina would mean broad trough systems dumping general rain on a wide scale. Not lots of small isolated storms that might eventually all join up to make it appear like general rain has fallen.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 01/01/2018 19:29

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Despite this some are ignoring the big picture


laugh laugh laugh
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 01/01/2018 19:33

The irony, right?

RC that’s a misconception. Moderate to strong La Nina’s are more prone to rain events, sure, but cool neutral to moderate la Nina’s imo are prone to Wet storm events.
Posted by: Mick10

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 01/01/2018 21:24

Originally Posted By: Long Road Home
I didn't even realise the areas near and around T'sville and Cairns got record rains in Oct as well. Nov above average too, so even if Jan-Apr are average or slightly below, they'll finish with an above avg wet season.


we had one wet day in october, the average is about 15mm, we smashed it. was the first rains since May, and we have had just one 15mm storm since. one wet day in 7 months does not mean the drought has broken and La Nina has its claws on us.
Posted by: Brett Guy

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 01/01/2018 21:51

Yeah. Despite oct and November being ok rainwise it is almost irrelevant now. December has been so dry it has completely negated and even reversed any benifit we recieved in the spring. The level of evaporation up here at the moment would have to be nearly unheard of. Hopefully this later start is relevant to the fact it was a late developing nina
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 02/01/2018 17:50

Because of course, a La Niña is purely judged on whether one gets rain over their particular area.

Meanwhile, a thousand km of the east coast today is under severe storm warnings, with massive hail, damaging winds, tornados and torrential rain falling, but hey, nothing to do with La Niña.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 02/01/2018 18:44


Wow at the current widespread storm outbreak across large areas of QLD/NSW.



Lovely moisture streaming in from the MJO 4-5 Indonesian region?



.....now it's us in SE Aus getting jealous!
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 02/01/2018 18:54

I read your post Siera, then it magically disappeared - can the rest of us do that?
Posted by: Seina

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 02/01/2018 18:58

Originally Posted By: Petros
I read your post Siera, then it magically disappeared - can the rest of us do that?

When you edit it...
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 02/01/2018 19:00

Ta
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 02/01/2018 19:45

Moisture from the Indian? Ummm no, sorry.

Surface winds - no nw’erly feed there.

Upper levels - defin no moisture there from the west, but I can sure see the moisture being dragged onshore across Northern Aus by humid easterlies and then wrapped around the Hadley cell into the trough over Eastern Aus. Thanks La Niña!

Moderator edit: Photos removed as they are far too large for these forums. Please refer to the guidelines below when posting images, thankyou.
http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthrea...ages#Post649322
Posted by: Mega

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 02/01/2018 19:51

The only influence the Indian ocean has had here recently is ex. Hilda's rubbish being sheared away to the east in the jetstream. The convective energy across QLD atm is a result of warm moist air being pulled down from the NE tropics ahead of this trough - absolutely nothing to do with the Indian Ocean. How anyone can say otherwise is absolutely beyond me.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 02/01/2018 20:04

Originally Posted By: Mega
The only influence the Indian ocean has had here recently is ex. Hilda's rubbish being sheared away to the east in the jetstream. The convective energy across QLD atm is a result of warm moist air being pulled down from the NE tropics ahead of this trough - absolutely nothing to do with the Indian Ocean. How anyone can say otherwise is absolutely beyond me.


Yep.
Posted by: RC

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 02/01/2018 20:58

Can you resize the humungous photo's?

Not all of us have 60" screens.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 02/01/2018 21:05

Tried, IMGUR won’t resize for some reason.
Posted by: Mega

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 02/01/2018 21:14

I'm sure one of the mods will resize them anyway.
Posted by: Seina

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 02/01/2018 21:33

Originally Posted By: Mega
The only influence the Indian ocean has had here recently is ex. Hilda's rubbish being sheared away to the east in the jetstream. The convective energy across QLD atm is a result of warm moist air being pulled down from the NE tropics ahead of this trough - absolutely nothing to do with the Indian Ocean. How anyone can say otherwise is absolutely beyond me.

Not quite sure what that's all about. ENSO and MJO were mentioned!
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 02/01/2018 22:02

Indian has nothing to do with ENSO, and the MJO is over near Africa, so no influence either.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 02/01/2018 22:47

Originally Posted By: Kino
Indian has nothing to do with ENSO, and the MJO is over near Africa, so no influence either.


Yep, as soon as the blocking ridge pattern that anchored for a few weeks broke down the rain set in. Moisture piling in out of the Coral Sea. Flow from the east is still not as deep as I'd like to see though. Yet.

Models are hinting at a deep easterly fetch longer term. Fingers crossed.

GFS keep the deep easterly flow from day 8 right out to day 16 and beyond. Wouldn't that be good!
Posted by: Long Road Home

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 03/01/2018 03:21

Originally Posted By: Mega
The convective energy across QLD atm is a result of warm moist air being pulled down from the NE tropics ahead of this trough - absolutely nothing to do with the Indian Ocean. How anyone can say otherwise is absolutely beyond me.


How can you say that with certainty? A cyclone off the NW of Aus can be influenced by high SST's in the tasman sea (which is on the other side of the country). It's to do with energy transference. Bit of research goes a long way.

I continue to agree with Kino. The current massive severe storm outbreak over the east coast is unprecedented in non-La nina seasons. It's pretty clear that she's pumping in ample moisture to create such a volatile environment. Even with weaker shear these storms are wreaking havoc in certain areas and will continue to do so for the remainder of the storm season.
Posted by: Mega

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 03/01/2018 04:23

Originally Posted By: Long Road Home
Originally Posted By: Mega
The convective energy across QLD atm is a result of warm moist air being pulled down from the NE tropics ahead of this trough - absolutely nothing to do with the Indian Ocean. How anyone can say otherwise is absolutely beyond me.


How can you say that with certainty? A cyclone off the NW of Aus can be influenced by high SST's in the tasman sea (which is on the other side of the country). It's to do with energy transference. Bit of research goes a long way


Alright fine, I can't say it with absolute certainty, but I haven't found any papers to prove / disprove the energy transference theory from the Tasman Sea to the Indian Ocean or vice versa, but since you brought it up then maybe you could link a few?
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 03/01/2018 08:51

Be interesting to see what the BOM say today in the ENSO wrap up and the weekly tropical note.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 03/01/2018 09:05

Originally Posted By: Kino
Because of course, a La Niña is purely judged on whether one gets rain over their particular area.

Meanwhile, a thousand km of the east coast today is under severe storm warnings, with massive hail, damaging winds, tornados and torrential rain falling, but hey, nothing to do with La Niña.


Storms happen in neutral and el nino.

I'm judging this event based on rainfall over the entire Eastern region of Australia, and over multiple months. Seems you want to judge it based on a thousand km (a quarter) of the east coast on one day.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 03/01/2018 09:41

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Originally Posted By: Kino
Because of course, a La Niña is purely judged on whether one gets rain over their particular area.

Meanwhile, a thousand km of the east coast today is under severe storm warnings, with massive hail, damaging winds, tornados and torrential rain falling, but hey, nothing to do with La Niña.


Storms happen in neutral and el nino.

I'm judging this event based on rainfall over the entire Eastern region of Australia, and over multiple months. Seems you want to judge it based on a thousand km (a quarter) of the east coast on one day.


You posted one month rainfall anomalies and I posted 3 month rainfall anomalies.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 03/01/2018 09:52

Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Despite this some are ignoring the big picture


laugh laugh laugh


So I suppose you think the big picture is the good rainfall in parts of Victoria and NSW last month, or the thousand kilometers of storms yesterday and not the poor rainfall figures for all of Eastern Australia over the last four months.
Posted by: Funkyseefunkydo

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 03/01/2018 10:08

Yeah I thought lanina = widespread rain.
Elnino = more storms due to more heat.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 03/01/2018 10:10

Originally Posted By: Long Road Home
Ext-GFS will make them make up their minds if it comes off, NW all the way to E NSW under water with that prediction laugh


GFS looks generally better for tropical moisture inflow - similar to October when we had the record breaking rains in coastal Qld. From the runs I've seen all E NSW under water seems a bit of a stretch though. Might be different runs to what you saw.

My argument is not that this event can't deliver good rains in the future, although I believe the lack of cooling towards nino 4 makes this less likely. My argument is that what has happened so far does not reflect any general influence in rainfall caused by a La Nina, as rainfall so far overall is below average.
Posted by: Funkyseefunkydo

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 03/01/2018 10:10

Don't like those NW winds in coral sea. Must be hot on qld coast today.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 03/01/2018 10:26



Kelvin wave is clearly progressing and warm subsurface anomalies are now moving out of the west Pacific and into the Central Pacific.
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 03/01/2018 10:26

The rains will come and when they do, we will be praying for it to stop, it's been six years since the last big wet and we also had the strongest El Nino on record in that time, sooner or later the pattern will swing the other way.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 03/01/2018 10:43

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Despite this some are ignoring the big picture


laugh laugh laugh


So I suppose you think the big picture is the good rainfall in parts of Victoria and NSW last month, or the thousand kilometers of storms yesterday and not the poor rainfall figures for all of Eastern Australia over the last four months.


Again, factually incorrect and a gross misleading overstatement.





Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 03/01/2018 10:44

Apologies for the double post but could this Kelvin Wave if there is one actually strengthen the current La Nina because doesn't the subsurface cool once a Kelvin Wave has passed and a Rossby Wave comes back across the Pacific? GFS is still predicting a beauty of a trade burst.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 03/01/2018 10:53

Originally Posted By: Chris Stumer
Apologies for the double post but could this Kelvin Wave if there is one actually strengthen the current La Nina because doesn't the subsurface cool once a Kelvin Wave has passed and a Rossby Wave comes back across the Pacific? GFS is still predicting a beauty of a trade burst.


yes, it does - equal and opposite reaction. That's the thing the OP never tells anyone. Always one side of the story.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 03/01/2018 10:55

Where are these "poor rainfall figures over the last 4 months" again?

Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 03/01/2018 11:01

The negative upper ocean heat content is also weakening which makes it interesting to see what happens in the next few months whether this La Nina weakens back to neutral or El Nino. Could it do something similar to what the 2015 El Nino did with a weak La Nina in the 2017/2018 season to be followed by a powerful La Nina in 2018/2019
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 03/01/2018 11:33

Originally Posted By: Kino


Again, factually incorrect and a gross misleading overstatement.



...and that is how I will note his contribution for the entire 2017 calendar year. The first to accuse others of nitpicking data but has clearly done so himself. Not to mention the 365 day obsession with warming from WWB's that simply did not eventuate whilst ignoring all the evidence put before him.

Off to a great start for doing exactly the same in 2018 it seems. It is not going to be a major achievement forecasting the possible propagation of warm water from the subsurface in the west to the surface in the east. It has been happening for thousands of years and simply serves to highlight his contempt for other contributors in the thread.

I listened to a story on the ABC (Simon Lewis from BoM) this morning suggesting that storms are likely to continue in Eastern Australia this Summer due to high levels of humidity, particularly in the NSW /Southern Queensland cnr . To ignore the contribution from La Nina is pure ignorance. The blocking ridging pattern that became established for much of December does NOT serve in any way to dismantle that fact and it had nothing to do with an ElNino. Not a thing.

ElNino typically means a lack of humidity but then the more knowledgeable contributors (and there are many more than just 1) already know this.

Posted by: Funkyseefunkydo

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 03/01/2018 12:04

2011 LaNina obs. laNina not going to have much impact if not strong.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 03/01/2018 12:08

Originally Posted By: Funkyseefunkydo
2011 LaNina obs. laNina not going to have much impact if not strong.


BoM already said as much.

"La Niña typically brings above average rainfall to eastern Australia during summer, particularly in northern New South Wales and Queensland. However, with a weak event expected, this typically means less influence upon Australian rainfall. La Niña events can also increase the likelihood of prolonged warm spells for southeast Australia."


The impact was strongest as it ramped up. It is the suggestion that it won't have any that I find disturbing when the evidence already debunks that.

Interestingly this is BoM's rainfall forecast for Jan-Mar

Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 03/01/2018 13:36

The facts:

For the last few months:

Dec -23.8 source BOM
Nov -3.3 source BOM
Oct +33.3 source BOM
Sep -16 source BOM

Total for complete months since nino 3.4 went below 0 (mid August) is 10mm below average.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 03/01/2018 13:41

Originally Posted By: ColdFront
It is the suggestion that it won't have any that I find disturbing when the evidence already debunks that.



What evidence? That some places have had above average and others haven't as shown by the decile maps? That the totals for all of eastern Australia end up below average?

My forecast is for below average rainfall is speculation based on research I have posted before showing that the key areas that need to cool for La Nina to impact rainfall are further west than have cooled. The forecast from BOM for rainfall is for above average rainfall and that is good and fine. If you find that disturbing that is your problem not mine.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 03/01/2018 13:49

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
The facts:

For the last few months:

Dec -23.8 source BOM
Nov -3.3 source BOM
Oct +33.3 source BOM
Sep -16 source BOM

Total for complete months since nino 3.4 went below 0 (mid August) is 10mm below average.


I see the cherry picking continues. Why do you only chose Eastern Aus Mike? Is it because it filters out the good southern and northern values; which are also affected by ENSO?
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 03/01/2018 14:28

Because ENSO causes increased rainfall in eastern Australia. The best southern rainfall was in Victoria so included in East Australia. Best northern rainfall was in Western Australia, and rainfall in that region is frequently opposite to ENSO regions, so should be filtered out.
Posted by: RandomGuy

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 03/01/2018 14:32

I have been reading this thread for quite some time now. It's always a good read so keep it up ladies and gentlemen.

I just wanted to post this short article I found quite interesting regarding the current and previous La Nina conditions.

http://ozewex.org/la-nina-can-bring-wet-weather-to-australia-but-not-always/
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 03/01/2018 14:46

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Because ENSO causes increased rainfall in eastern Australia. The best southern rainfall was in Victoria so included in East Australia. Best northern rainfall was in Western Australia, and rainfall in that region is frequently opposite to ENSO regions, so should be filtered out.



Arguably NT and SA could be added into the Eastern Australian figures. NT was about 10mm below average, and SA about 10mm above average for the 4 months, so not going to make much difference.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 03/01/2018 14:48

Originally Posted By: RandomGuy
I have been reading this thread for quite some time now. It's always a good read so keep it up ladies and gentlemen.

I just wanted to post this short article I found quite interesting regarding the current and previous La Nina conditions.

http://ozewex.org/la-nina-can-bring-wet-weather-to-australia-but-not-always/



I'm surprised they are only researching this now. RWM and I discussed the water east of PNG and its affect on Eastern Australia a few years back . Thanks for sharing the link.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 03/01/2018 14:55

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Because ENSO causes increased rainfall in eastern Australia. The best southern rainfall was in Victoria so included in East Australia. Best northern rainfall was in Western Australia, and rainfall in that region is frequently opposite to ENSO regions, so should be filtered out.



The BoM doesn't qualify on their site what constitutes 'eastern' 'northern' 'southern' nor 'western' so how do you know what is or is not included?
Posted by: GringosRain

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 03/01/2018 16:21

Originally Posted By: RandomGuy
I have been reading this thread for quite some time now. It's always a good read so keep it up ladies and gentlemen.

I just wanted to post this short article I found quite interesting regarding the current and previous La Nina conditions.

http://ozewex.org/la-nina-can-bring-wet-weather-to-australia-but-not-always/



Thanks for the link.....would explain a lot about this current Ninas performance so far.
Posted by: ashestoashes

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 03/01/2018 16:28

The bureau has put up their Weekly Tropical Climate note.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/tropical-note/
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 03/01/2018 16:47

The Bureau are saying that the warm pool in the western Pacific is typical of a La Nina breaking down. The weekly tropical note doesn't sound good, has there ever been a wet season where the monsoon trough failed to appear at all?
Posted by: KevD

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 03/01/2018 16:55

Originally Posted By: Chris Stumer
The Bureau are saying that the warm pool in the western Pacific is typical of a La Nina breaking down. The weekly tropical note doesn't sound good, has there ever been a wet season where the monsoon trough failed to appear at all?

Yep, this is the growing warm pool that Mike has been referencing and I also discussed a few pages back (in the old thread).
Would be good if we could all take NY resolutions to discuss the topic and not the attack the person this year. Some of the comments on the previous page appear personal, vindictive and do nothing to add to the debate, please give it a break guys. We're all here for the weather and we're all, it appears, adults...that way we can all enjoy the thread right through the year smile
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 03/01/2018 17:02

It will be interesting to see if the warm pool leads to the development of El Nino later this year.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 03/01/2018 17:49

As usual, the devil is in the detail with the BoM and their outlooks:

- monsoon onset: yes delayed last season but it sure made up for it with Darwin over 400mm above average. Yes, NQ didn’t fare well, that could well change next week looking at models. Writing off a season before it’s even started is dead set boring and childish.
- western warm pools are standard with La Niña’s (as Mike would well know...) and of course the event could well be over in a few months - as they generally are... however POAMA and CFS don’t agree, so we will see. By then the whole north and east coasts could be flooded so we willl prob be happy it is.

And the irony of accusing people of “attacking” others, when they regularly do themselves btw and are allowed too, and then attacking those members with backhanded insults...what’s worse: delib twisting of data and misleading behaviour or pointing that out - seems pointing it out is in here. Nice if the same threshold was applied to all..but we all know what side of the thermometer they come from.
Posted by: Locke

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 03/01/2018 18:07

I think the next MJO passage will be the key for the tropical east coast.
Posted by: Funkyseefunkydo

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 03/01/2018 18:21

Andrew Watkins on last 3 months.
Quote:
its very difficult to attribute any one rain event to any one single climate drievr, but that said, the early December rains in SE Aus were result of tropical air feeding a long way south; quite La Nina-like.
Posted by: KevD

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 03/01/2018 19:10

Originally Posted By: Kino
And the irony of accusing people of “attacking” others, when they regularly do themselves btw and are allowed too, and then attacking those members with backhanded insults...what’s worse: delib twisting of data and misleading behaviour or pointing that out - seems pointing it out is in here. Nice if the same threshold was applied to all..but we all know what side of the thermometer they come from.

What on earth are you talking about? And what are you implying by "which side of the thermometer they come from"? It's not gang warfare here, it's meant to be a discussion on climate change. Seeing as no Mods are going to stand up when they see what is happening then it's up to other members, which is what I am doing. It is important that this debate is open to all sides, and that we all read posts and comment on the contents, not the person. There are no gangs here Kino, chill mate.
Posted by: snowbooby

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 03/01/2018 22:37

Originally Posted By: KevD
Originally Posted By: Kino
And the irony of accusing people of “attacking” others, when they regularly do themselves btw and are allowed too, and then attacking those members with backhanded insults...what’s worse: delib twisting of data and misleading behaviour or pointing that out - seems pointing it out is in here. Nice if the same threshold was applied to all..but we all know what side of the thermometer they come from.

What on earth are you talking about? And what are you implying by "which side of the thermometer they come from"? It's not gang warfare here, it's meant to be a discussion on climate change. Seeing as no Mods are going to stand up when they see what is happening then it's up to other members, which is what I am doing. It is important that this debate is open to all sides, and that we all read posts and comment on the contents, not the person. There are no gangs here Kino, chill mate.


All that happens is people turn off, no-one learns anything - it's just a continuous shoring up of opinions on all sides and whatever worthwhile points there might be in any of it just doesn't get a proper look so often it might as well not be posted
Posted by: S .O.

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/01/2018 01:01

Meanwhile .

Back on topic .

If anyone on here doesn't realise we are on an island , and doesn't realise that Oceans on the other side of the country can't effect the other then they need a big education in weather let alone Climate influences .

The Indian ( more Specifically the Timor Sea and even the Waters as far West as Sumatra can be influenced ) by the ENSO . Via its massive influence on the WPWP and knock on effect of the the ITF .

If some people are so sure that Eastern Qld & NSW is not effected , can you then explain how Eastern WA (mainly Central and East ) also is effected by the Pacific . Because last time i checked only the Pacific Oceans anomalies could be used to explain their current 4 Mths .

Back to it though ,
The trend of the movement in the ENSO chart can be more important at times than the reading .

If you look through the Aust wide monthly Anomaly charts in sequential order from Oct - Dec . You see a wave of Blue impact Early in Oct on the NE coast , it then Establishes in the Far West that it can influence and each month is making its way back East .

Anyone ( including the Pros ) that call something underwhelming when traditionally its only a Qtr of its way through its Total average accruance period is at best nieve and at worst callous .
Andrew Watkins seems like the only person at BOM with his head screwed on right ( almost ) .

Again this Nina will not behave as normal as it started late . Good luck in the next few months everyone .
Back to Watching
Posted by: Mega

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/01/2018 04:24

Originally Posted By: S .O.
Meanwhile .

Back on topic .

If anyone on here doesn't realise we are on an island , and doesn't realise that Oceans on the other side of the country can't effect the other then they need a big education in weather let alone Climate influences .

The Indian ( more Specifically the Timor Sea and even the Waters as far West as Sumatra can be influenced ) by the ENSO . Via its massive influence on the WPWP and knock on effect of the the ITF .

If some people are so sure that Eastern Qld & NSW is not effected , can you then explain how Eastern WA (mainly Central and East ) also is effected by the Pacific . Because last time i checked only the Pacific Oceans anomalies could be used to explain their current 4 Mths .


Well yeah, but the subject was only brought up in relation to the current outbreak of storms across QLD.

I mean, I can see how the effects of one ocean would influence the other over a period of time due to certain synoptics on both sides, I just don't buy the suggestion that the Indian Ocean had much if anything directly to do with sourcing moisture for those storms. If they did then why wasn't there rain / storms all the way across the continent instead of only in the eastern states? Just one look at a simple synoptic chart and you could see where that moisture was being drawn in from, and it damn sure wasn't WA. http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/inde...als&period=week

I agree re people calling it too early though. Give it time imo.
Posted by: Mega

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/01/2018 04:35

PS it just snowed in Florida.
Posted by: Mega

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/01/2018 06:22

Found this tweet interesting, she's not done yet boys (and girls).

https://twitter.com/carl_schreck/status/948275559817187328?s=17

Also check out EC trade winds at the end of the run, very very strong. edit: and GFS as Chris mentioned a page or two back.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/01/2018 07:48

Originally Posted By: Mega
Found this tweet interesting, she's not done yet boys (and girls).

https://twitter.com/carl_schreck/status/948275559817187328?s=17

Also check out EC trade winds at the end of the run, very very strong. edit: and GFS as Chris mentioned a page or two back.


Great post & find! The extreme cold and La Niña in the USA are not unrelated. Be interesting to see what impact the cold has on the PDO and ENSO over the next few months.

As for storm outbreak, the challenge for the warming fans is show me one El Niño year where similar conditions have been observed. Bet they can’t.

And SO - my statement was poorly worded; I wasn’t trying to imply the Indian had no impact on ENSO whatsoever I was trying to say re this event. Any analysis of water vapour or wind streams will prove that conclusively. This trough is being primed by east pac moisture courtesy of La Niña.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/01/2018 08:07

Originally Posted By: Kino


The BoM doesn't qualify on their site what constitutes 'eastern' 'northern' 'southern' nor 'western' so how do you know what is or is not included?



Try clicking on the 'about time series' link displayed below the title of the graph. Eastern is Qld, NSW, Vic and Tas.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/01/2018 08:10

Originally Posted By: ColdFront


I'm surprised they are only researching this now. RWM and I discussed the water east of PNG and its affect on Eastern Australia a few years back . Thanks for sharing the link.


I've previously posted research showing the same thing, and I'm pretty sure the research wasn't recent. It is one of the reasons why I am arguing the current event is having minimal impact on our rainfall.
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/01/2018 08:26

This La Nina has a good chance of rebuilding or gaining strength through autumn because it formed so late in 2017.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/01/2018 08:36

Meanwhile the already weak monsoon flow has been hijacked for the 4th time this season by another TS, this time TS Bolaven.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/01/2018 08:40

Originally Posted By: Kino


As for storm outbreak, the challenge for the warming fans is show me one El Niño year where similar conditions have been observed. Bet they can’t.


I said that storms also occur in neutral years and did not mention el nino. edit, I did mention el nino as well as neutral

Look at figure 1b from Global lightning activity from the ENSO perspective. This shows that during a La Nina lightning activity normally increases over tropical Qld, and decreases over SEQ and coastal NSW. Seems to be the opposite of what we've had lately?

Posted by: retired weather man

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/01/2018 08:47

With the SOI now back in the red, BoM was certainly correct in predicting that any La Nina this season would be short lived, and it certainly helped the annual bottom line in Oct and Nov locally to bring this up to close to average for the year just ended.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/01/2018 09:07

Last 90 days SLP anomalies

On average pressure has been much lower in Coral sea than over Qld. This has the impact of blocking the east to west flow of tropical moisture from the Tropical Pacific from impacting Australia. This is average conditions, and exceptions can exist, an important one being during the extreme rains in October where I clearly remember the pattern breaking down allowing a strong NE feed into Australia linking to the deep tropical pacific easterlies.

Ridging in Tasman and over SE Aust, combined with the low in coral sea means enhanced SE, so some moisture, boosted by strong Tasman Sea SST anomalies, however keep in mind that the northern end of the Tasman sea is still only about 24 degrees (and higher closer to the coast) compared to 30 in deep tropics so a very much inferior moisture source to an ideal La Nina tropical flow.

At the same time there are strong low pressure to NW of Australia. This has helped pull tropical moisture down from the SE Asian region into Western to central Australia, and is similar to what happens in an IOD. An important mechanism of IOD is instability in this region being translated to SE through Rossby wave stuff.

Rainfall and atmospheric patterns show some similarities to IOD patterns without any matching SST pattern.
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/01/2018 09:08

The bureau are saying the drop in the SOI is more to do with the MJO rather than a breakdown of La Nina.
Posted by: GringosRain

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/01/2018 09:51

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Last 90 days SLP anomalies

On average pressure has been much lower in Coral sea than over Qld. This has the impact of blocking the east to west flow of tropical moisture from the Tropical Pacific from impacting Australia. This is average conditions, and exceptions can exist, an important one being during the extreme rains in October where I clearly remember the pattern breaking down allowing a strong NE feed into Australia linking to the deep tropical pacific easterlies.

Ridging in Tasman and over SE Aust, combined with the low in coral sea means enhanced SE, so some moisture, boosted by strong Tasman Sea SST anomalies, however keep in mind that the northern end of the Tasman sea is still only about 24 degrees (and higher closer to the coast) compared to 30 in deep tropics so a very much inferior moisture source to an ideal La Nina tropical flow.

At the same time there are strong low pressure to NW of Australia. This has helped pull tropical moisture down from the SE Asian region into Western to central Australia, and is similar to what happens in an IOD. An important mechanism of IOD is instability in this region being translated to SE through Rossby wave stuff.

Rainfall and atmospheric patterns show some similarities to IOD patterns without any matching SST pattern.


I said as much in the last thread and was mauled.

The only time events have happened in the east and especially are in the brief breakdowns or trough transitions of the blocking high in the Tasman. Someone mentioned the other day about it breaking down....but it looks to be going absolutely nowhere. GFS has it just morphing back time and time again right through the extended run. I think our perception of this Nina would be entirely different without the influence of that HPS. So who is the expert in here on the LWT? Why is parked east of NZ and why wont it move? What is its key driver and is it related to ENSO, SAM, PDO etc or is it in itself a driver. As I see it, this one factor is playing a defining role in this event.
Talk of Increased trades etc arent going to mean much if low pressure doesnt start to dominate the coastal east coast.
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/01/2018 09:52

Originally Posted By: Long Road Home
I didn't even realise the areas near and around T'sville and Cairns got record rains in Oct as well. Nov above average too, so even if Jan-Apr are average or slightly below, they'll finish with an above avg wet season.

In other news, the disturbance on the NT/QLD border is getting close to the GOC potentially developing into a TC, swinging around the NW and doing a Hilda. Just a theoretical.



Nov was below average here.

3 months in a row now 😀😀😀😀
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/01/2018 10:13

This is La Nina in Jan....no rain in sight for January either haha.

Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/01/2018 10:43

I would think the SAM would be the primary climate driver causing the LWT to be stuck near NZ.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/01/2018 11:09

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Originally Posted By: Kino


As for storm outbreak, the challenge for the warming fans is show me one El Niño year where similar conditions have been observed. Bet they can’t.


I said that storms also occur in neutral years and did not mention el nino. edit, I did mention el nino as well as neutral

Look at figure 1b from Global lightning activity from the ENSO perspective. This shows that during a La Nina lightning activity normally increases over tropical Qld, and decreases over SEQ and coastal NSW. Seems to be the opposite of what we've had lately?



10 year old paper that only had one proper La Nina in the study period (98 - 2006). Don't really think that paper adds anything to the debate.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/01/2018 11:23

The BoM guy on the ABC certainly didn't agree with that link and expects storm activity to be above normal through Jan-Mar because of increased humidity associated with LaNina.


Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
This has the impact of blocking the east to west flow of tropical moisture from the Tropical Pacific from impacting Australia.


This was stated days ago wink
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/01/2018 11:33

Originally Posted By: Chris Stumer
This La Nina has a good chance of rebuilding or gaining strength through autumn because it formed so late in 2017.


It doesn't work that way unfortunately .
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/01/2018 11:36

Originally Posted By: Kino


10 year old paper that only had one proper La Nina in the study period (98 - 2006). Don't really think that paper adds anything to the debate.


First you bet that I can't find one el nino with similar storm activity. I then find research covering multiple el ninos (and a specific comment that 97/98 el nino was very high in lightning activity, and a multi-year la nina event and thats still not enough.

What evidence have you provided that La Nina is linked to increased thunderstorm activity?
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/01/2018 11:42

All we can do is wait and see
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/01/2018 11:52

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber


What evidence have you provided that La Nina is linked to increased thunderstorm activity?


Simon Lewis, the BoM duty forecaster who I mentioned a couple of days back. Maybe go and dig up the news story from the ABC archives and watch it! He pointed to the increased humidity meaning more storms for Northern NSW and Southern Qld as a result of moisture coming out of the pacific from a La Nina setup.
Posted by: GringosRain

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/01/2018 12:04

Simon says! lol
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/01/2018 12:04

Which would you regard as more authoritative? Peer reviewed research or the opinion of a forecaster quoted in media?

Here is a second
and third paper with the same finding.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/01/2018 12:30

He wasn't quoted by the media, it was an interview. Try and keep up. I stopped reading your links around the middle of last year Mike when you kept trying to convince everyone that the cold tongue was going to disappear. You look for agenda based articles rather than actual science. It's funny how the winds turn to the nth east from up near the Solomons this week and Qld /NSW got smashed by storms.

The blocking ridge does not in anyway support a lack of LaNina conditions. Not one bit. It has already been pointed out why it occurred by several people. All it does is support why some events impact more than others. BoM said this event would have a weaker influence, but did not so no influence.

Originally Posted By: GringosRain
Simon says! lol


Ridicule to your heart's content if you fell the need. It seems like commonsense to me. No moisture ,no storms. La Nina is linked to increased moisture, ElNino is linked to decreased moisture but it seems some lack the most basic understanding of ENSO influence on our climate.

How many thunderstorms do you think delivered this result in 1983 in a strong El Nino?



...and I'll take a damned sight more notice of anyone from BoM over Mr denial of what's under his nose, any day of the week.
Posted by: GringosRain

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/01/2018 12:44

I agree it does makes sense coldfront that more moisture would be available....

We arent in a strong La, nina and we arent in February so maybe that map isnt a good reflection of what might be the opposite of this situation either. Maybe a weak Nino or warm phase map in December might suit....

Too many factions I see....Mike can be annoyingly skewed constantly to warm. Yet Kino and LRH are nina bulls, and it really isnt playing ball in any totally compelling way.

I think your region has done particularly well IMO driven by the the synoptic pattern more than anything and if you were having the experience of Dawwg you might be a bit more quiet on how awesome this nina moisture is.

personally Im just go with intuition and the now.....and I think any region could get most of what we have had so far in any old year. Sure it might change to very wet and it could be imminent, but I dont recon I would be ready to put money on that either. Death to the Quidge!

Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/01/2018 12:51

Originally Posted By: GringosRain


Yet Kino and LRH are nina bulls



...and given that is the offical state of ENSO they have every right to be.

No-one said we are in a strong LaNina which is why its influence is fluctuating. To deny any influence at all is plain stupidity and based entirely ion ignorance.

Here is the synoptic for New Years Day when storms were severe in Eastern Australia. It is similar for a couple of preceeding days. I challenge anyone to put up a similar surface flow from well out in the pacific in an ElNino event in any coming event .

Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/01/2018 12:56

Mega's link (Yes Mega I read your posts) gives the best explanation for our dry December and funnily enough it was because of LaNina, not in spite of it. The Northern Hemisphere won ! Cross equatorial flow was pushed east.

OLR maps for the weeks we were incredibly dry, showing the cause of the blocking ridge.

Posted by: GringosRain

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/01/2018 12:59

Nobody is denying anything....its not special or hard to be bullish when you are in a La nina event! I could switch stance tomorrow and start saying the same thing...its not hard. They arent wrong. Its just doing sweet FA for most of the people that need it and for all the talk about whats going to happen....well the point is it hasnt happened yet, and it may not either. I mean the tropics are pathetic so far, wheres the amazing nina influence up there.
As for the pretty picture I will let someone else go digging if they wish.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/01/2018 13:11

Originally Posted By: GringosRain
....well the point is it hasnt happened yet


Now you are sounding like your mate. It has happened in some parts but not others. This region had its wettest Spring on record.

Almost the entire state of Qld had above average rainfall in October and yet your buddy tried to deny it had anything to do the LaNina development peddling some crap about 'west of the ranges". Yet I will wager a considerable sum that there was a deep easterly flow when that rain happened. It's not about being bullish. It's about the facts.





Yes, there has been a disruption to that easterly flow but it has been discussed already. It won't make the sea surface temperatures in the pacific simply vanish because someone doesn't believe it exists.
Posted by: GringosRain

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/01/2018 13:22

Lets be clear...I dont have any buddies here.

And its awesome that October had all that nice rain (we had some too was great).....I would note though that if a region has a 50mm average for October than a fall of 80mm in that month could make a nice blue picture. But that region might have average of 110mm or higher in December or January, so to get nice blue pictures in those months mean you have to get a lot more rain, and if you have white or red pictures in those months it quickly means the blue picture from 3 months ago is meaningless....
And Im sure if I look hard enough I can find blue pictures in El nino or warm neutral events.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/01/2018 13:38

Originally Posted By: ColdFront
He wasn't quoted by the media, it was an interview. Try and keep up.


And the difference is?

Quote:

I stopped reading your links around the middle of last year Mike


You won't read the evidence I provide, but you still want to have an opinion on what I say.

Originally Posted By: ColdFront

when you kept trying to convince everyone that the cold tongue was going to disappear.


I made a prediction that the surface would warm to neutral and nino 3 and 3.4 warmed to 0.01 and -0.01 or something.

Quote:
Ridicule to your heart's content if you fell the need.


Mr Pot....

Originally Posted By: ColdFront

No moisture ,no storms. La Nina is linked to increased moisture, ElNino is linked to decreased moisture but it seems some lack the most basic understanding of ENSO influence on our climate.


Not the only factor. El nino is linked to increased sheer - increased storms, reduced cyclones. Higher moisture can work both ways to either change a set up too dry for storms to one with enough moisture for storms. Or changing a setup with enough moisture to one with too much cloud cover.

Quote:

...and I'll take a damned sight more notice of anyone from BoM over Mr denial of what's under his nose, any day of the week.


...Meet Mr Kettle
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/01/2018 13:40

Originally Posted By: ColdFront

Now you are sounding like your mate. It has happened in some parts but not others. This region had its wettest Spring on record.


And overall the rainfall for eastern Australia was below average for Sept,Nov and Dec, and above average for Oct. Add it all up and its below average.
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/01/2018 13:44

Every El Nino and La Nina event is different, sometimes you can get reasonable rainfalls in El Ninos, 97/98 and the event from 91 to 95 are good examples. Droughts can sometimes occur in La Ninas, 07/08 is a good example of this. The delayed monsoon is more to do with a shift in wind patterns in the northern hemisphere rather than ENSO, the same mechanism causing the record cold in the US is probably causing it.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/01/2018 13:56

Mike you flat out lied about the rainfall in October due to wwb blindness. Again, no-one has said there is a strong LaNina in the Pacific, just that there is a LaNina surface trend and you have gone your hardest to deny it exists .
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/01/2018 14:05

Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Mike you flat out lied about the rainfall in October


When did I lie about the rainfall in October? Was it when I said

Quote:
This is average conditions, and exceptions can exist, an important one being during the extreme rains in October where I clearly remember the pattern breaking down allowing a strong NE feed into Australia linking to the deep tropical pacific easterlies.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/01/2018 14:07

No it was when you made the comment about it being east of the ranges .
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/01/2018 14:10



Long road home - is this what southerners consider a good season??? I guess you cant complain, you get rain every month of the year.

This is the worst october-dec ive seen here.

Where is this average rainfall you were talking about.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/01/2018 14:47

Originally Posted By: ColdFront
No it was when you made the comment about it being east of the ranges .


I think I said that the anomalies were strongest east of the ranges, which is true.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/01/2018 15:34

Originally Posted By: GringosRain
Yet Kino and LRH are nina bulls, and it really isnt playing ball in any totally compelling way.


Baloney, I call what I see. I don't have an emotional attachment or personal climate driven agenda unlike others. When the ocean is cooling; we called it and we were proved right.
Posted by: GringosRain

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/01/2018 16:14

no doubt you did. It was plain to see coming and you were right and are right. Where there is a difference is how much genuine effect there has been and my reference to your bullishness is in relation to that and the continuing promise of the big things to come.
Once again, I think the call of big things to come is a reasonably safe call (as was calling a nina in an obvious build up to a nina) and I would be long some bigs rains shortly too. Late summer, autumn nearly always pays something regardless of the ENSO state around here at least...but something just doesnt feel that compelling with the whole thing. Time and again events are showing up only to be downgraded or dissolved entirely (next week being another example). Past ninas, a cloud only had to be in cooee and it would be dropping rain. I just think the driver is this blocking system and whatever is behind that. This Nina may well be a very compelling event if that changed, but then would we say its La nina or the positioning of the LWT (if it were over the Tasman for instance), causing the rain. Theres no upper level cold pools transitioning....arent they a feature of La nina? No real dynamic events....just surface troughs, with accessible moisture from wherever you agree its from. Its just like the never ending build up to what? Hopefully a bitcoin bull run for everyone.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/01/2018 17:17

Lovely plume of storms again over large parts of Qld at present"



....and if water vapor advected from the Tropics over Darwin arriving over Qld has nothing to do with the storms:




....can we all agree that if it arrives overhead, ....it is not an effective "storm suppressant"?
Posted by: Mega

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/01/2018 18:08

But that moisture is all streaming down from the northern tropics from both the Timor Sea and the Solomon Islands. Not WA.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/01/2018 18:09

Originally Posted By: GringosRain
......Past ninas, a cloud only had to be in cooee and it would be dropping rain.


Yep wouldn't it be great if weather always repeated itself. ...mind you would be a bit boring debate-wise wink
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/01/2018 18:11

Petros - I’m not sure if you realise but storms up there generally form based on convection...I.e. moisture convected from the surface into the sky. There’s no upper cold pools, no mid or upper level feature that’s driving the action, it’s a surface trough. Moisture, if there is any, in the uppers has no effect. As well, the picture you posted shows there is no moisture coming from the NT - that’s dead drier air from the MCS’ over the Top End.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/01/2018 18:24

I understand all the pessimism, drought does that to all of us.

....I am simply saying, we are all better off with the present state of the climate around Aus, than same time other years.

If I posted this (current image) of what the weather conditions were to be now, ....in say October 2017 - if I was in a drought area (anywhere) - I'd crack a bottle of Champers!:

Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/01/2018 21:25

Originally Posted By: Kino
Petros - I’m not sure if you realise but storms up there generally form based on convection...I.e. moisture convected from the surface into the sky. There’s no upper cold pools, no mid or upper level feature that’s driving the action, it’s a surface trough. Moisture, if there is any, in the uppers has no effect. As well, the picture you posted shows there is no moisture coming from the NT - that’s dead drier air from the MCS’ over the Top End.


Obvious water vapour signature of an upper level trough, confirmed by 200hp wind anlaysis to lie from south of Darwin towards the SW corner of Qld.
Posted by: Seina

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/01/2018 21:28

From: Analysis for 06:00 UTC on Tuesday 2 January 2018
ACCESS-R Analysis Charts (same timeframe).

All of the information below is based on the above timeframe, and was written as such.

The current Sub-Tropical Ridge (STR) is centred 33-35 degrees South latitude, SW of Eucla WA, probably partially because the Deep South Trough system is pushing up on it. The whole situation is forcing the winds (southerlies) from the STR into the interior, SW of QLD...and the forcing is extensive, surface troughs extending all the way to the SW WA coast, in a horse-shoe shape. This is clear from the ACCESS-R analysis charts. There is also [currently] a mild westerly-belt upper trough extension moving across inland VIC/NSW, which is forcing temperatures there down – remaining milder. There is an upper ridge near Perth WA, which is directing warmer south-to-north winds inland, towards the areas currently covered by cloud (Top End) on the satellite loop – thunderstorms. The mild westerly-belt upper trough is also pushing winds [in the Coral Sea] ahead if it into a tighter gradient along the NE Seaboard. These winds, the northern counterparts less under the influence of the Coriolis Force, are interacting along the NT/QLD/NSW coastal fringe. The surface trough system (all the way to South Coral Sea) has disrupted the STR there, hence winds are more from the north.

My take on it.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/01/2018 22:24

From the BoM:

Originally Posted By: BoM
A surface trough, which extends from the northwest of the state through the central and southeastern interior, will move to the west over the next few days. A coastal trough over Capricornia Waters will move north along the east coast today and Friday


No mention of any upper feature, nw flow nadda, zilch. All that upper trough will be doing is aiding divergence to remove the dead air away from the surface trough & storms and dumping it off the QLD coast.
Posted by: Seina

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/01/2018 23:01

No quoting of my previous post yet, or the charts I mentioned...therefore no connection.
Posted by: S .O.

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/01/2018 23:13

The Timor Sea would be classified as part of the Indian Ocean . To atleast Darwin . If you want to really split hairs some may say till the INDONESIA - Papua New Guinea Border . ( Excluding the GoC ) as to my knowledge there is little flow of currents down and through the actual shallow ( massive bay ) . Obviously through Torres Strait there is transfer , but most flow would be further Nth out of the Bay .

Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/01/2018 23:54

Originally Posted By: Dawgggg


Where is this average rainfall you were talking about.


You live in Townsville. I still cannot believe you guys complain about lack of rain in that place even after all these years.
Posted by: Mega

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/01/2018 05:56

Originally Posted By: Kino
From the BoM:

Originally Posted By: BoM
A surface trough, which extends from the northwest of the state through the central and southeastern interior, will move to the west over the next few days. A coastal trough over Capricornia Waters will move north along the east coast today and Friday


No mention of any upper feature, nw flow nadda, zilch. All that upper trough will be doing is aiding divergence to remove the dead air away from the surface trough & storms and dumping it off the QLD coast.


Yeah there is definitely an upper trough there - it is part of the STJ which runs out off the QLD coast and then becomes part of the low near NZ. Though I'd imagine all it'd be really doing at that level is aiding those thunderstorm's outflow by shearing the rubbish tops off to the SE more than anything else. Probably why the Bureau never bothered to mention it.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018010412/gfs_uv200_swpac_1.png

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View
Posted by: Mick10

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/01/2018 06:00

Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Originally Posted By: Dawgggg


Where is this average rainfall you were talking about.


You live in Townsville. I still cannot believe you guys complain about lack of rain in that place even after all these years.


Perhaps not leaving out the clinch one liner in the quote might help -

Originally Posted By: Dawgggg


This is the worst october-dec ive seen here.

Where is this average rainfall you were talking about.


wink
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/01/2018 10:19

Looks like La Nina could be showing signs of strengthening and that warm pool could also be getting pushed back to the west, every trade burst we're getting is deepening that cold pool
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/01/2018 11:33

Originally Posted By: Mick10


Perhaps not leaving out the clinch one liner in the quote might help -





Makes no difference, The result is the same. Townsville went through this in the 90's and will again. It has nothing to do with one liners and plenty to do with geography.
Posted by: Mick10

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/01/2018 14:45

Originally Posted By: ColdFront


Makes no difference, The result is the same. Townsville went through this in the 90's and will again. It has nothing to do with one liners and plenty to do with geography.


so? everyplace has its drought, why does that not mean that people from Townsville cant complain about a lack of rain after 5 years of below average rainfall? Travs comment was that he was of opinion the oct to dec period was the worst he has ever seen, you left that part of his comment out, it is very relevant to the current topic in this thread.

the city has lower rainfall averages than other areas around it because of its geography, however the reason for lower than average years is not because of its geography.
Cairns had a below average year in 2017, was that because of its geography?
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/01/2018 14:47

Originally Posted By: Mick10
Originally Posted By: ColdFront


Makes no difference, The result is the same. Townsville went through this in the 90's and will again. It has nothing to do with one liners and plenty to do with geography.


so? everyplace has its drought, why does that not mean that people from Townsville cant complain about a lack of rain after 5 years of below average rainfall? Travs comment was that he was of opinion the oct to dec period was the worst he has ever seen, you left that part of his comment out, it is very relevant to the current topic in this thread.

the city has lower rainfall averages than other areas around it because of its geography, however the reason for lower than average years is not because of its geography.
Cairns had a below average year in 2017, was that because of its geography?


The heat must be insane up there. I certainly don't miss it.

Mean and Median are two different things.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/01/2018 15:06

If I could send our rainfall up that way I would. We certainly don't need anymore at the moment.

I've had 170mm in the past 3 hours at home. Bundy is 15 kilometres away in a straight line and hasn't had a drop. It sure is a crazy climate in this country.
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/01/2018 16:21

Id rather my 9mm 😂😂😂😛😛😛
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/01/2018 16:32

Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
Id rather my 9mm 😂😂😂😛😛😛


I had no idea hand guns were legal wink

Ended up with 187 mm here.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/01/2018 16:54

Love the weather's sense of humour at times - Nth QLD'ers complaining (and understandably so) about La Nina and no rain...within a few days torrential rain and storms arrive (and more rain than I've seen in nearly 3 months btw...). Cest La Vie.
Posted by: Brett Guy

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/01/2018 17:02

Originally Posted By: Kino
Love the weather's sense of humour at times - Nth QLD'ers complaining (and understandably so) about La Nina and no rain...within a few days torrential rain and storms arrive (and more rain than I've seen in nearly 3 months btw...). Cest La Vie.


Haha. Very true. But lets not jump the gun. I have no doubt we will see some decent rain over the next few months but two days does not a wet season make. If this is the switch being flicked all good and well but if is only a short lived reprieve again not so good. December has been extremely notable for any prevailing ENSO state but even moreso given we are in a Nina and even if Nina kicks into gear now the oddity that was December 2017 will always remain
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/01/2018 17:04

Why not? You guys wrote-off the La Nina the same way? Some of us on here said it'd be a wet Jan and on and there was much scoffing (and still is...). Yep, it's early days but it's looking promising.

And Dec doesn't surprise me given La Nina formed so late - I made the comment it's more like Sept/Oct weather than December weather. Hopefully the forecast trade bursts will eventuate, the monsoon trough arrives and you get plenty of rain, as I really look forward to the 'I told you so..." wink
Posted by: Brett Guy

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/01/2018 17:10

Originally Posted By: Kino
Why not? You guys wrote-off the La Nina the same way? Some of us on here said it'd be a wet Jan and on and there was much scoffing (and still is...). Yep, it's early days but it's looking promising.


Well I never wrote it off. I think I said something along the lines of 'when it goes it will go hard'. And it does look promising. No doubt about it. But lets wait and see before we decide what is happening. This is not monsoonal and is likely due to the insane build up of energy over the last month meeting the solid easterly flow coming in off the coral sea. will this setup continue and will we keep seeing real 'wet season' rain? That is the question that only time will answer.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/01/2018 17:11

Originally Posted By: Kino


And Dec doesn't surprise me given La Nina formed so late


December is often a dry month regardless ,especially in Qld.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/01/2018 17:13

All models now have the tropics firing up with widespread storms, rain and lows and possible TC's. The trigger is there; now we await the pulling.
Posted by: Brett Guy

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/01/2018 17:28

Originally Posted By: Kino
Why not? You guys wrote-off the La Nina the same way? Some of us on here said it'd be a wet Jan and on and there was much scoffing (and still is...). Yep, it's early days but it's looking promising.

And Dec doesn't surprise me given La Nina formed so late - I made the comment it's more like Sept/Oct weather than December weather. Hopefully the forecast trade bursts will eventuate, the monsoon trough arrives and you get plenty of rain, as I really look forward to the 'I told you so..." wink


December probably didn't surprise you because I highly doubt you understand what it was like. It wasn't like sep/oct weather. It was far drier. FAR drier. The amount of rain was one thing but it was the heat combined with the low humidity levels that made the difference. Driest December since 1951(plus crazy low humidity) and if anyone does not see that as notable then they are not interested in weather and more interested in 'I told you so' wink . I am with you in that I think this Nina will produce but that does not mean those taking note of December are wrong.
Posted by: Mick10

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/01/2018 17:37

Originally Posted By: Kino
Love the weather's sense of humour at times - Nth QLD'ers complaining (and understandably so) about La Nina and no rain...within a few days torrential rain and storms arrive (and more rain than I've seen in nearly 3 months btw...). Cest La Vie.


the weather across NQ this week is what we should be getting in late November not early January. I have had some 80mm this week, which is damn fantastic, but 5km has had less than half that. While signs are great for increasing moisture, it is expected that this time of year it should be there, not one and half months late. hopefully as you say the change is coming up here, but its certainly not here yet.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/01/2018 17:51

Scattered showers and storms as occurred in QLD the last day and a bit, and as forecast for much of the eastern tropics for the next 2 weeks is not going to even get you to average rainfall let alone good rains. Which is only to be expected as the MJO is currently progressing through the western Indian Ocean.

The important factor is what happens when (if) MJO hits the Australian region CFS has MJO stalling in the Indian Ocean which is favourable for ENSO cooling, but not great for Eastern Tropics rainfall. EC has a steady progression and slight weakening of MJO to reach Australian regions about 2 weeks time, the question then being does it progress into the West Pac for another WWB etc.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/01/2018 18:02

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Scattered showers and storms as occurred in QLD the last day and a bit, and as forecast for much of the eastern tropics for the next 2 weeks is not going to even get you to average rainfall let alone good rains. Which is only to be expected as the MJO is currently progressing through the western Indian Ocean.

The important factor is what happens when (if) MJO hits the Australian region CFS has MJO stalling in the Indian Ocean which is favourable for ENSO cooling, but not great for Eastern Tropics rainfall. EC has a steady progression and slight weakening of MJO to reach Australian regions about 2 weeks time, the question then being does it progress into the West Pac for another WWB etc.



Dunno, seemed to go fine in Oct / Nov across a swathe of places. Guess we will see - but one thing for sure, won't be any WWB's for a long time if EC/GFS come off.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/01/2018 18:06

Originally Posted By: Brett Guy
Originally Posted By: Kino
Why not? You guys wrote-off the La Nina the same way? Some of us on here said it'd be a wet Jan and on and there was much scoffing (and still is...). Yep, it's early days but it's looking promising.

And Dec doesn't surprise me given La Nina formed so late - I made the comment it's more like Sept/Oct weather than December weather. Hopefully the forecast trade bursts will eventuate, the monsoon trough arrives and you get plenty of rain, as I really look forward to the 'I told you so..." wink


December probably didn't surprise you because I highly doubt you understand what it was like. It wasn't like sep/oct weather. It was far drier. FAR drier. The amount of rain was one thing but it was the heat combined with the low humidity levels that made the difference. Driest December since 1951(plus crazy low humidity) and if anyone does not see that as notable then they are not interested in weather and more interested in 'I told you so' wink . I am with you in that I think this Nina will produce but that does not mean those taking note of December are wrong.


Must be something in the Nth Qld water....didn't you even read what was posted or too interested in a "gotcha moment"? You assume wrong, I'm more than familiar with how dry & hot northern Aus can be and how crap that feels. I'm pretty sure I said that your Dec weather was more like Sept/Oct, didn't I? Not like Dec is a wet month for you guys anyway - even Cairns only averages 124mm.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/01/2018 18:08

Originally Posted By: Mick10
Originally Posted By: Kino
Love the weather's sense of humour at times - Nth QLD'ers complaining (and understandably so) about La Nina and no rain...within a few days torrential rain and storms arrive (and more rain than I've seen in nearly 3 months btw...). Cest La Vie.


the weather across NQ this week is what we should be getting in late November not early January. I have had some 80mm this week, which is damn fantastic, but 5km has had less than half that. While signs are great for increasing moisture, it is expected that this time of year it should be there, not one and half months late. hopefully as you say the change is coming up here, but its certainly not here yet.


How many times does it have to be said that this isn't the usual La Nina and has formed significantly later? That will have consequences.
Posted by: Brett Guy

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/01/2018 18:17

Originally Posted By: Kino
Originally Posted By: Brett Guy
Originally Posted By: Kino
Why not? You guys wrote-off the La Nina the same way? Some of us on here said it'd be a wet Jan and on and there was much scoffing (and still is...). Yep, it's early days but it's looking promising.

And Dec doesn't surprise me given La Nina formed so late - I made the comment it's more like Sept/Oct weather than December weather. Hopefully the forecast trade bursts will eventuate, the monsoon trough arrives and you get plenty of rain, as I really look forward to the 'I told you so..." wink


December probably didn't surprise you because I highly doubt you understand what it was like. It wasn't like sep/oct weather. It was far drier. FAR drier. The amount of rain was one thing but it was the heat combined with the low humidity levels that made the difference. Driest December since 1951(plus crazy low humidity) and if anyone does not see that as notable then they are not interested in weather and more interested in 'I told you so' wink . I am with you in that I think this Nina will produce but that does not mean those taking note of December are wrong.


Must be something in the Nth Qld water....didn't you even read what was posted or too interested in a "gotcha moment"? You assume wrong, I'm more than familiar with how dry & hot northern Aus can be and how crap that feels. I'm pretty sure I said that your Dec weather was more like Sept/Oct, didn't I? Not like Dec is a wet month for you guys anyway - even Cairns only averages 124mm.


No gotcha moment. Yes, you said this Dec was like sept/oct. I said it wasn't. It was drier than Sep/oct because of the heat combined with the extremely low humidity causing far higher evaporation rates therefore maiking it drier even than the rainfall figures would imply on their own. Due to the low humidity however it actually felt a lot nicer than it normally would have but that is beside the point. Your assertation is that the late forming Nina is responsible for delaying the onset of the wet(correct me if I am wrong). I am saying that the late forming nina is responsible for delaying the onset of the wet but that it does not explain the December we just experienced. This December was exceptional. Simple as that. Regarldess of the ENSO state. In my opinion it was an anomaly caused by something else
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/01/2018 18:25

Based on....? I've at least put my theory out there; what is yours? Speculation isn't a theory. Simple as that.
Posted by: Brett Guy

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/01/2018 18:33

based on the fact this December was so unusual. More unusual than you seem to think it was. That's it. As for the theories of people on this forum. Lets face it. They are guesses. Especially in regards to ENSO. Hell even the best scientific models are guesses it would seem and based on that theories and scientific analysis is speculation
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/01/2018 18:35

No more unusual than a December forming La Nina - hence one unusual event breeds another.
Posted by: Brett Guy

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/01/2018 18:39

Originally Posted By: Kino
No more unusual than a December forming La Nina - hence one unusual event breeds another.


But correlation does not always mean causality. Everyone knows that. Unless you can demonstrate exactly how the late forming nina caused the weather here on the NTC then it is speculation. I on the other hand say we don't know. which one is the wild guess
Posted by: Mick10

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/01/2018 18:39

Originally Posted By: Kino


How many times does it have to be said that this isn't the usual La Nina and has formed significantly later? That will have consequences.


well then how about you and others stop telling us about what our weather, should be, has been, and is meant to do. I have not argued one point about a late developing La Nina, i am attempting to give an indication that not all is as it seems yet, the tables have not yet turned up here. maybe they wont, maybe they will - but hopefully they will.

not sure why this argument continues to go around and around.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/01/2018 18:42

Originally Posted By: Kino


Dunno, seemed to go fine in Oct / Nov across a swathe of places. Guess we will see - but one thing for sure, won't be any WWB's for a long time if EC/GFS come off.


If you are talking showers/storms being enough for good falls in Oct/Nov - Some places can get to above average monthly rainfall through scattered showers and storms, particularly in spring (My backyard did for Nov/Dec on showers/storms). But not the tropics in monsoon season. Needs a good solid monsoon boost, often during MJO passage.

Expected time between WWBs is about 4-6 weeks in normal conditions, as per MJO progress. EC has MJO progress pretty much at a steady but maybe slightly slower than normal rate through the La Nina friendly Indian Ocean phases, and CFS has it stalling for at least a few days at the end of its two week forecast.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/01/2018 18:54

Originally Posted By: Brett Guy
Originally Posted By: Kino
No more unusual than a December forming La Nina - hence one unusual event breeds another.


But correlation does not always mean causality. Everyone knows that. Unless you can demonstrate exactly how the late forming nina caused the weather here on the NTC then it is speculation. I on the other hand say we don't know. which one is the wild guess


And on the other hand it could indicate causality - the incidence rate of QLD's December and a December forming La Nina, the timing of that and the mega MJO that pushed through lingering in Zone 7 IMO indicates more than coincidence. IMO the developing La Nina combined with the lingering MJO to cause warmer temps and abnormal hot water in SE Australia which pushed the STR NE, being blocked and locked there by continuous Tasman Lows courtesy of the SAM. This blocked the usual trough activity for NE QLD and instead dumping massive amounts of drier air over the Coral Sea, starving the NE coast of any moisture and drying out the usual moister trades.

As for 'wild guess' you have said don't even know but are lighting quick to rule out anything.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/01/2018 18:58

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Originally Posted By: Kino


Dunno, seemed to go fine in Oct / Nov across a swathe of places. Guess we will see - but one thing for sure, won't be any WWB's for a long time if EC/GFS come off.


If you are talking showers/storms being enough for good falls in Oct/Nov - Some places can get to above average monthly rainfall through scattered showers and storms, particularly in spring (My backyard did for Nov/Dec on showers/storms). But not the tropics in monsoon season. Needs a good solid monsoon boost, often during MJO passage.

Expected time between WWBs is about 4-6 weeks in normal conditions, as per MJO progress. EC has MJO progress pretty much at a steady but maybe slightly slower than normal rate through the La Nina friendly Indian Ocean phases, and CFS has it stalling for at least a few days at the end of its two week forecast.


Mike - the Monsoon Season for NE Qld doesn't climatologically start til January - it's due usually around Christmas for the Top End and then 2-3 weeks later for NE Qld. So...how would it have even contributed to Dec rainfall? It rarely does. Even when it has graced the Top End in early December, it very rarely pushes through to NE Qld.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/01/2018 19:05

Originally Posted By: Mick10
Originally Posted By: Kino


How many times does it have to be said that this isn't the usual La Nina and has formed significantly later? That will have consequences.


well then how about you and others stop telling us about what our weather, should be, has been, and is meant to do. I have not argued one point about a late developing La Nina, i am attempting to give an indication that not all is as it seems yet, the tables have not yet turned up here. maybe they wont, maybe they will - but hopefully they will.

not sure why this argument continues to go around and around.


It's amazing when one contradicts themselves in one paragraph - you acknowledge that it's a late developing La Nina and then go on to indicate that all is not well? How is not well? La Nina not behaving the way it *should* be - LOL no surprises there we all know that and have repeatedly said that we're really in new territory due to the lateness of this La Nina. What we have said; backed by models, is that we expect a wetter Jan - Mar/Apr. Least we put our thoughts out there cf sooky rants.

BTW people are entitled to their opinions. You as a mod should be supporting that, not ranting about it.
Posted by: Brett Guy

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/01/2018 19:08

Originally Posted By: Kino
Originally Posted By: Brett Guy
Originally Posted By: Kino
No more unusual than a December forming La Nina - hence one unusual event breeds another.


But correlation does not always mean causality. Everyone knows that. Unless you can demonstrate exactly how the late forming nina caused the weather here on the NTC then it is speculation. I on the other hand say we don't know. which one is the wild guess


And on the other hand it could indicate causality - the incidence rate of QLD's December and a December forming La Nina, the timing of that and the mega MJO that pushed through lingering in Zone 7 IMO indicates more than coincidence. IMO the developing La Nina combined with the lingering MJO to cause warmer temps and abnormal hot water in SE Australia which pushed the STR NE, being blocked and locked there by continuous Tasman Lows courtesy of the SAM. This blocked the usual trough activity for NE QLD and instead dumping massive amounts of drier air over the Coral Sea, starving the NE coast of any moisture and drying out the usual moister trades.

As for 'wild guess' you have said don't even know but are lighting quick to rule out anything.


I am not ruling anything out. You could be dead right. I am saying it cannot be ruled in.
As for the troughs. I have seen Decembers with weeks of the coastal ridge refusing to budge and it never got this dry and never produced weeks of 50% humidity. I still would guess(and I am not trying to hide that it is a guess) that there are other contributors. I don't know why. Well. To be honest my guess is the late season typhoon activity in the Northern hemisphere but I don't know if that is due to the Nina or something else
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/01/2018 19:20

We all feel your drought/hurt N & W Qlndr's.

....Just struggle with the continual pessimism given a weak La Nina is in place, and its potential impact on alleviating the dryness up there.

Here's to 3 cyclones, more of the storms you have/are experiencing over past couple of days, ...and a very short lived return of that damned coastal ridge in coming days! cheers
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/01/2018 19:24

Originally Posted By: Kino


Mike - the Monsoon Season for NE Qld doesn't climatologically start til January - it's due usually around Christmas for the Top End and then 2-3 weeks later for NE Qld. So...how would it have even contributed to Dec rainfall? It rarely does. Even when it has graced the Top End in early December, it very rarely pushes through to NE Qld.


I thought we were talking about showers/storms last few days and forecast for the next two weeks, and not December.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/01/2018 19:25

Originally Posted By: Brett Guy
I am not ruling anything out. You could be dead right. I am saying it cannot be ruled in.

As for the troughs. I have seen Decembers with weeks of the coastal ridge refusing to budge and it never got this dry and never produced weeks of 50% humidity. I still would guess(and I am not trying to hide that it is a guess) that there are other contributors. I don't know why. Well. To be honest my guess is the late season typhoon activity in the Northern hemisphere but I don't know if that is due to the Nina or something else


They're all linked - absolutely - persisting tropical activity in Northern Hemisphere; linked with Hadley Cell activity here and an ITCZ stuck there and the mega MJO as well.
Posted by: Brett Guy

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/01/2018 19:31

Originally Posted By: Kino
Originally Posted By: Brett Guy
I am not ruling anything out. You could be dead right. I am saying it cannot be ruled in.

As for the troughs. I have seen Decembers with weeks of the coastal ridge refusing to budge and it never got this dry and never produced weeks of 50% humidity. I still would guess(and I am not trying to hide that it is a guess) that there are other contributors. I don't know why. Well. To be honest my guess is the late season typhoon activity in the Northern hemisphere but I don't know if that is due to the Nina or something else


They're all linked - absolutely - persisting tropical activity in Northern Hemisphere; linked with Hadley Cell activity here and an ITCZ stuck there and the mega MJO as well.


Then why does that not happen every nina event? This is different. There is likely something else at play. We all know ENSO is only one factor(albeit often a big one) but we don't get these late season typhoons stealing our cross equatorial flow every nina. Why this time? Just because it is late forming? I don't buy it. More to it I reckon
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/01/2018 19:39

Firstly, how would we know - we have rarely had such a late forming La Nina so no real base to work off. We can't judge what we see now against the 'norm' cause there is no real norm for what we're seeing.

Secondly, the Northern Hemisphere typhoon season goes well into our Summer. That's not unusual.

Thirdly, a mega MJO (almost a record) pushed through and hung around Zone 7 for weeks. This blocked the trade winds which ordinarily would have shredded the systems and helped push the ITCZ into the Southern Hemisphere. Added to this the Hadley Cell here was much further north due, keeping the ITCZ north and anchoring the STR off the QLD Coast.
Posted by: Brett Guy

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/01/2018 19:44

Originally Posted By: Kino
Firstly, how would we know - we have rarely had such a late forming La Nina so no real base to work off. We can't judge what we see now against the 'norm' cause there is no real norm for what we're seeing.

Secondly, the Northern Hemisphere typhoon season goes well into our Summer. That's not unusual.

Thirdly, a mega MJO (almost a record) pushed through and hung around Zone 7 for weeks. This blocked the trade winds which ordinarily would have shredded the systems and helped push the ITCZ into the Southern Hemisphere. Added to this the Hadley Cell here was much further north due, keeping the ITCZ north and anchoring the STR off the QLD Coast.


Exactly my point. How would we know? We don't. We speculate. And while the northern hemisphere does produce cyclones at any time of the year I doubt there are many years where there are this many systems this late in the season. Maybe we should go back through the records to find those years and see what sort of corresponding weather occurred in Aus
Posted by: _Johnno_

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/01/2018 19:46

Originally Posted By: Kino
Firstly, how would we know - we have rarely had such a late forming La Nina so no real base to work off. We can't judge what we see now against the 'norm' cause there is no real norm for what we're seeing.

Secondly, the Northern Hemisphere typhoon season goes well into our Summer. That's not unusual.

Thirdly, a mega MJO (almost a record) pushed through and hung around Zone 7 for weeks. This blocked the trade winds which ordinarily would have shredded the systems and helped push the ITCZ into the Southern Hemisphere. Added to this the Hadley Cell here was much further north due, keeping the ITCZ north and anchoring the STR off the QLD Coast.


2007/08 we did and yes would love to see the rainfall across eastern Australia from October until April month by month if anyone can get a hold of that.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/01/2018 19:50

This one is later forming than 07/08:

Originally Posted By: BoM Climate
La Niña: 2007–08


SOI: Weak to Moderate
SST: Moderate

This moderately strong La Niña had a moderate impact over parts of northern and eastern Australia where rainfall was in deciles 8–10 for the nine months from June 2007 to February 2008 (Figure 1). However, it was late in developing and anomalous in terms of the broad band of below-average falls from central to southeastern Australia, due largely to very dry conditions from August to October (Figure 2). As a result there was little significant relief from the long-term dry conditions which had plagued the southeast, especially the high rainfall areas of the Murray Darling Basin. June 2007 (Figure 3) brought decile 10 totals, including large areas with record-high falls, across most of the central and eastern tropics. Wet conditions also extended down the east coast where major floods occurred in the Hunter region of NSW and in Gippsland. More typical La Niña rainfall anomalies took hold from November, with the four months from November 2007 to February 2008 (Figure 4) being moderately wet through the east of the mainland, and the north of both the NT and WA. A few small regions in Queensland and NSW had highest-on-record falls for the four-month period.
Posted by: _Johnno_

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/01/2018 19:52

2008-09 was also similar to what it is doing now.. Late forming once again and weak not sure if the BOM even classified it as a La Nina but other parts of the world may have. 2005-06 also another late weak forming La Nina and to some extent 2011-12 after the Big La Nina of 2010-11 was also slow to get regoing.. All models had us going back to neutral earlier in 2011 for later that year and once again the Models played catch up bit like this year with a late La Nina forming.

BOM's WEEKLY Tropical notes written 3rd of January.

Australian monsoon onset unlikely in next week
While the monsoon trough briefly influenced the north Western Australia coast in association with tropical cyclone Hilda, northern Australia is yet to experience broadscale monsoonal flow this wet season. By convention, the Australian monsoon onset date occurs when the onset is observed at Darwin. Therefore, by this definition, the Australian monsoon onset has yet to occur—the last time the onset date was this late was during the 2011–12 wet season ( La Nina summer).

It was the last week of January to be precise Australia day period.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/01/2018 19:53

Quote:
La Niña: 2008–09


SOI: Weak to Moderate
SST: Weak

This weak La Niña was a very short, marginal event, with its greatest impact occurring across the north of Australia during the period August 2008 to April 2009 (Figure 1).
The La Niña began with close-to-average rainfall recorded over northern Australia during August to October (Figure 2) and below to very-much-below-average rainfall in the southeast. This was followed by a widespread wet November to December (Figure 3), with 62% of Australia recording rainfall in the two wettest deciles. Tropical cyclone Billy produced areas of highest on record falls during December in the region surrounding Wyndham in the NT.
In contrast, January to February 2009 (Figure 4) was very dry across much of southern Australia, with Victoria and SA having 94% and 65% of their area in the lowest decile of rainfall, respectively. This, coupled with two extreme heat waves during the same period, contributed to the Black Saturday bushfires, with 7th February 2009 being the hottest day on record for large parts of Victoria, including Melbourne.
Posted by: _Johnno_

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/01/2018 19:57

Yep, I'm no expert but every La Nina is different and seems to vary even more so over the tropics especially northern QLD tropics.. Going by other weak or late forming events. At this stage is running closely to early 2012 with no monsoon in sight til late January despite ENSO being in La Nina mode but interesting that parts of Victoria and NSW were under water by late February early March in 2012.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/01/2018 20:00

....and Darwin ended up over 400mm above average. So they didn't miss out.
Posted by: _Johnno_

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/01/2018 20:03

Yes
Posted by: _Johnno_

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/01/2018 20:04

Rainfall decile Feb 2012

http://www.bom.gov.au/web03/ncc/www/awap...20120120229.gif

March 2012

http://www.bom.gov.au/web03/ncc/www/awap...30120120331.gif

No where near over by a long shot guys... Plenty of time for this La Nina to do its thing up north.
Posted by: Brett Guy

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/01/2018 20:07

Plenty of time. And I reckon it will deliver in the end. At least I hope it will. I just don't think it explains Decmeber on the NTC
Posted by: Mick10

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/01/2018 20:41

Originally Posted By: Kino

It's amazing when one contradicts themselves in one paragraph - you acknowledge that it's a late developing La Nina and then go on to indicate that all is not well? How is not well? La Nina not behaving the way it *should* be - LOL no surprises there we all know that and have repeatedly said that we're really in new territory due to the lateness of this La Nina. What we have said; backed by models, is that we expect a wetter Jan - Mar/Apr. Least we put our thoughts out there cf sooky rants.

BTW people are entitled to their opinions. You as a mod should be supporting that, not ranting about it.


i dont see how i have contractided myself, what i was saying is that conditions are up here are not matching to a la nina event, and we are yet to see any change to the positive in our atmosphere. agai currently, just trying to put into perspective what is happening up here in regards to your continued push that la nina is currently delivering to my part of the world. If the BOM say its a La Nina then so be it, im not a climate scientist. But 27 years of living in this city tells me we are not feeling the effects.

i am also not sure how you dont think people are entitled to their opinions. you know me well enough to know i have never, nor will ever say otherwise. like other threads on this forum that have been shut down, people seem to have a distinct lack of ability to recognise other peoples views.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/01/2018 20:51

Sigh, where have I personally said it’s delivering to Brownsville?
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/01/2018 21:52

Another climate driver? Landmass shifting?

Quote:
Australia found to gyrate with the weather

Wednesday, 21 December 2016
The Australian continent tilts and shifts in a coherent gyrating motion as a result of seasonal weather patterns across the globe, a world-first discovery from the University of Newcastle (UON) has shown.

Professor Shin-Chan Han is a geodesist with NASA and academic in UON’s School of Engineering.

He has used a combination of GPS data along with data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites, both of which measure ground deformation, to discover a ‘seasonal gyration’.

“The new research shows Australia sinks and rises between 3mm and 5mm in response to the mass change across the globe, as well as shifting northwest 1mm during the southern hemisphere’s summer and moving back during the winter,” Professor Han said.

“It’s an exciting development in that we now know we can use these forms of surveillance to track the slightest of movements, which are vital in the long-term planning for our response to climate change.”

Seasonal mass change is influenced by many factors, including atmospheric pressure, ocean mass, ground water storage and the ice/snow cycle.

When the southern hemisphere is experiencing summer, there is more mass in Europe owing to increased rainfall, snow and water distribution.

When the season changes and there is a shift in mass as a result of evaporation, Australia responds by tilting toward the heavier area.

“This tilt, combined with the natural continental drift the country experiences throughout the year, results in an elliptical movement or ‘gyration’,” Professor Han said.

You can read more about this study here. Story credit: University of Newcastle newsroom
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 06/01/2018 06:15

Quote:
as well as shifting northwest 1mm during the southern hemisphere’s summer and moving back during the winter,” Professor Han said.


If you don't like the climate change induced by Australia moving north 1mm in summer you can always move yourself 1mm further south to cancel out.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 06/01/2018 06:56

Kelvin Wave continues its march through the central Pacific. Most of the nino 3.4 region has warm heat content anomalies now. Overall equatorial ocean heat content has gone up substantially since October and cold anomalies have reduced by about half.





So far the trade wind burst has been weaker and further west than the last burst. Forecasts have it moving further east and strengthening. Forecasts are also going for westerly anomalies in the far east in about a weeks time. If these continue until arrival of the warm Kelvin Wave in the far east in maybe 2 weeks time this would allow for maximum warming impact of this wave in the far east.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 06/01/2018 07:53

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Quote:
as well as shifting northwest 1mm during the southern hemisphere’s summer and moving back during the winter,” Professor Han said.


If you don't like the climate change induced by Australia moving north 1mm in summer you can always move yourself 1mm further south to cancel out.


You must be such fun at parties....
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 06/01/2018 09:02

Originally Posted By: Mick10
Originally Posted By: Kino

It's amazing when one contradicts themselves in one paragraph - you acknowledge that it's a late developing La Nina and then go on to indicate that all is not well? How is not well? La Nina not behaving the way it *should* be - LOL no surprises there we all know that and have repeatedly said that we're really in new territory due to the lateness of this La Nina. What we have said; backed by models, is that we expect a wetter Jan - Mar/Apr. Least we put our thoughts out there cf sooky rants.


BTW people are entitled to their opinions. You as a mod should be supporting that, not ranting about it.


i dont see how i have contractided myself, what i was saying is that conditions are up here are not matching to a la nina event, and we are yet to see any change to the positive in our atmosphere. agai currently, just trying to put into perspective what is happening up here in regards to your continued push that la nina is currently delivering to my part of the world. If the BOM say its a La Nina then so be it, im not a climate scientist. But 27 years of living in this city tells me we are not feeling the effects.

i am also not sure how you dont think people are entitled to their opinions. you know me well enough to know i have never, nor will ever say otherwise. like other threads on this forum that have been shut down, people seem to have a distinct lack of ability to recognise other peoples views.


Mick10 - As you know I spent 25 years up there too and saw the same. For info here are the prolonged dry spells in Townsville over the past 4 decades. These are Townsville's annual rainfalls expressed as a percentage of the long term average.

1982 - 62%, 1992 - 53%, 2001 - 41%, 2013 - 63%.
1983 - 69%, 1993 - 44%, 2002 - 68%, 2014 - 92%.
1984 - 85%, 1994 - 41%, 2003 - 51%, 2015 - 35%.
1985 - 55%, 1995 - 63%, 2004 - 76%, 2016 - 84%
1986 - 55%, 1996 - 56%, 2005 - 45%.
1987 - 68%,
1988 - 71%.
The current dry run is not too bad yet
compared to recent ones.
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 06/01/2018 09:48

The cold pool is strengthening again and there are signs of an equatorial Rossby wave coming back eastwards across the Pacific, this La Nina could be about to ramp up quickly I think. The 49/51 event didn't really show itself until February 1950.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 06/01/2018 09:59

Originally Posted By: Chris Stumer
The cold pool is strengthening again

When heat content anoamlies are warming quickly?


Originally Posted By: Chris Stumer
and there are signs of an equatorial Rossby wave coming back eastwards across the Pacific,


Atmospheric or ocean? Whereabouts?
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 06/01/2018 10:04

Originally Posted By: retired weather man
Originally Posted By: Mick10
Originally Posted By: Kino

It's amazing when one contradicts themselves in one paragraph - you acknowledge that it's a late developing La Nina and then go on to indicate that all is not well? How is not well? La Nina not behaving the way it *should* be - LOL no surprises there we all know that and have repeatedly said that we're really in new territory due to the lateness of this La Nina. What we have said; backed by models, is that we expect a wetter Jan - Mar/Apr. Least we put our thoughts out there cf sooky rants.


BTW people are entitled to their opinions. You as a mod should be supporting that, not ranting about it.


i dont see how i have contractided myself, what i was saying is that conditions are up here are not matching to a la nina event, and we are yet to see any change to the positive in our atmosphere. agai currently, just trying to put into perspective what is happening up here in regards to your continued push that la nina is currently delivering to my part of the world. If the BOM say its a La Nina then so be it, im not a climate scientist. But 27 years of living in this city tells me we are not feeling the effects.

i am also not sure how you dont think people are entitled to their opinions. you know me well enough to know i have never, nor will ever say otherwise. like other threads on this forum that have been shut down, people seem to have a distinct lack of ability to recognise other peoples views.


Mick10 - As you know I spent 25 years up there too and saw the same. For info here are the prolonged dry spells in Townsville over the past 4 decades. These are Townsville's annual rainfalls expressed as a percentage of the long term average.

1982 - 62%, 1992 - 53%, 2001 - 41%, 2013 - 63%.
1983 - 69%, 1993 - 44%, 2002 - 68%, 2014 - 92%.
1984 - 85%, 1994 - 41%, 2003 - 51%, 2015 - 35%.
1985 - 55%, 1995 - 63%, 2004 - 76%, 2016 - 84%
1986 - 55%, 1996 - 56%, 2005 - 45%.
1987 - 68%,
1988 - 71%.
The current dry run is not too bad yet
compared to recent ones.


That 2015 year was total disaster.
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 06/01/2018 10:45

There is an area of water that has developed that is 3 degrees below normal and according to the map I saw on Stormsurf there are signs of an equatorial Rossby Wave present. The upper ocean heat heat content will probably start to decrease soon too.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 06/01/2018 11:14

Originally Posted By: retired weather man


Mick10 - As you know I spent 25 years up there too and saw the same. For info here are the prolonged dry spells in Townsville over the past 4 decades. These are Townsville's annual rainfalls expressed as a percentage of the long term average.

1982 - 62%, 1992 - 53%, 2001 - 41%, 2013 - 63%.
1983 - 69%, 1993 - 44%, 2002 - 68%, 2014 - 92%.
1984 - 85%, 1994 - 41%, 2003 - 51%, 2015 - 35%.
1985 - 55%, 1995 - 63%, 2004 - 76%, 2016 - 84%
1986 - 55%, 1996 - 56%, 2005 - 45%.
1987 - 68%,
1988 - 71%.
The current dry run is not too bad yet
compared to recent ones.


Hence why I said what I did . Townsville's "Average" is a bit deceptive. I also mentioned that one in the 90's you have on your list when dead cattle lay all over the place between Townsville and Charters Towers and the ground was cracked heavily, the Bruce Highway between Townsville and Airlie beach littered with roo carcasses.

Maybe they need a desal plant? You can't keep shoving people into a city that has no water and a history of having no water without a clear solution and governments on both sides don't seem interested in addressing the issue.

Townsville has the same issue as Bowen and Bundaberg because of geography. Areas north and south of us get 1500mm a year as their annual rainfall is supplimented with south easterly stream showers and so their "average" is a little more consistent.

Townsville relies on cyclone inundation (or the remains of) to prop up its average and had Debbie drifted a little further north last year the result could have been very different but that's the weather for you. Yesterday at home it was the only place on the coast between Adelaide and Townsville to get rain and it is anomalous rain events that make up our average also. 700mm in October , 300mm in March as Debbie's remains went over us and the rest was spread over the remaining 362 days.

Bundaberg is in a rain shadow just like Townsville and Bowen and I,ve witnessed many years when the MT was nowhere near Qld until February, just as Kino stated above. Probably why Cairns' wettest two months are February and March (on average).
Posted by: Seina

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 06/01/2018 15:50

Originally Posted By: Brett Guy
As for the theories of people on this forum. Lets face it. They are guesses. Especially in regards to ENSO. Hell even the best scientific models are guesses it would seem and based on that theories and scientific analysis is speculation

Hypotheses are guesses until demonstrated otherwise. Some theories in modern science have a very solid foundation, and as a consequence it would take a lot of dedication, hard work and time to debunk them. This does not mean they are infallible - when are they ever - but it does mean that expression one's opinion - without qualifying the claims made - on these robust theories is definitely not enough undo all the testing, replication and reviewing they have gone through...

If one's intention is to debunk a solid theory without a good reason to - an objective - then that is not science, or even close to it. If theories are debunked by chance or finding new things out from data analysis - expected or unexpected - then that is great. However, if one is not being transparent about what is being undertaken...that's something else. Going out of one's way to debunk ideas is not science, it is bias. If that's what's happen in the past on this forum - because ideas have been fixated on for whatever reason - then I certainly hope history does not repeat.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 06/01/2018 16:52

Models are for estimating and gauges are for knowledge
The knowledge develops from skill applied to data analysis
Observation experience counts a huge amount
Ultimately knowledge becomes solid when shared with others and put to scrutiny... peer reviewed journals etc and many other sources and media worth weight for knowledge sharing.
Reader still has to decide for themselves whether what is written is good/avg/bad
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 06/01/2018 16:53

Originally Posted By: Flowin
Models are for estimating and gauges are for knowledge
The knowledge develops from skill applied to data analysis
Observation experience counts a huge amount
Ultimately knowledge becomes solid when shared with others and put to scrutiny... peer reviewed journals etc and many other sources and media worth weight for knowledge sharing.
Reader still has to decide for themselves whether what is written is good/avg/bad


Well said.
Posted by: Snapper22lb

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 06/01/2018 17:31

Hi all, it won't have a great influence on us but has the monsoon trough made an appearance on the national weather 4 day chart?
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 06/01/2018 17:41

Originally Posted By: Snapper22lb
Hi all, it won't have a great influence on us but has the monsoon trough made an appearance on the national weather 4 day chart?


Sure has, and according to the Severe Weather Advice issued for the NT today it’s there now. Hope it does lol it always seems to arrive just after the BoM conclusively say it won’t for weeks.
Posted by: RC

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 06/01/2018 19:07

Townsville can catch water off the roof of that new sports stadium they are getting.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 06/01/2018 19:19

Originally Posted By: Seira
Originally Posted By: Brett Guy
As for the theories of people on this forum. Lets face it. They are guesses. Especially in regards to ENSO. Hell even the best scientific models are guesses it would seem and based on that theories and scientific analysis is speculation

Hypotheses are guesses until demonstrated otherwise. Some theories in modern science have a very solid foundation, and as a consequence it would take a lot of dedication, hard work and time to debunk them. This does not mean they are infallible - when are they ever - but it does mean that expression one's opinion - without qualifying the claims made - on these robust theories is definitely not enough undo all the testing, replication and reviewing they have gone through...

If one's intention is to debunk a solid theory without a good reason to - an objective - then that is not science, or even close to it. If theories are debunked by chance or finding new things out from data analysis - expected or unexpected - then that is great. However, if one is not being transparent about what is being undertaken...that's something else. Going out of one's way to debunk ideas is not science, it is bias. If that's what's happen in the past on this forum - because ideas have been fixated on for whatever reason - then I certainly hope history does not repeat.



Siera - I'll listen to you when the global climate models you have so much confidence in, can predict future climate better than simply using the average temperature over past 100 years and re-projecting that for the coming year.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 06/01/2018 19:21

Originally Posted By: Flowin
Models are for estimating and gauges are for knowledge
The knowledge develops from skill applied to data analysis
Observation experience counts a huge amount
Ultimately knowledge becomes solid when shared with others and put to scrutiny... peer reviewed journals etc and many other sources and media worth weight for knowledge sharing.
Reader still has to decide for themselves whether what is written is good/avg/bad


Yep, but unless the gauge values are back corrected to suit an agenda.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 06/01/2018 19:59

Originally Posted By: Petros


Siera - I'll listen to you when the global climate models you have so much confidence in, can predict future climate better than simply using the average temperature over past 100 years and re-projecting that for the coming year.


Achieved about 30 years ago, although that is a forbidden topic...
Posted by: Flowin

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 06/01/2018 20:00

Originally Posted By: Petros
Originally Posted By: Flowin
Models are for estimating and gauges are for knowledge
The knowledge develops from skill applied to data analysis
Observation experience counts a huge amount
Ultimately knowledge becomes solid when shared with others and put to scrutiny... peer reviewed journals etc and many other sources and media worth weight for knowledge sharing.
Reader still has to decide for themselves whether what is written is good/avg/bad


Yep, but unless the gauge values are back corrected to suit an agenda.


I did say and put to scrutiny
Posted by: Seina

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 06/01/2018 20:00

Originally Posted By: Petros
Siera - I'll listen to you when the global climate models you have so much confidence in, can predict future climate better than simply using the average temperature over past 100 years and re-projecting that for the coming year.

I didn't saying anything about models. I also didn't say anything about confidence, nor do I have all the answers. I can't tell people what I think, but I do know, for sure, that making unchecked assumptions makes an ass out of all if not checked! This is not personal.
Posted by: Brett Guy

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 06/01/2018 20:16

Not sure how we got to this. My point was that ENSO models are little better than a guess therefore the 'science' is in effect little more than speculation. And in that case the speculation of us on this thread is just as legitimate as the science as a wild guess would achieve the same success rate in predicting future ENSO states.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 06/01/2018 20:20

I think ENSO state is a tickle in amongst other factors.
Frustrates me when all the discussion is La Niña, El Niño or something in between.
What is MJO doing.
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 06/01/2018 20:27

Sites like earth.nullschool are good because you can see what's going on in real time. It's too easy to get caught up in computer models because there are so many variables involved and it only takes one to be out to throw the whole prediction out. Earlier this year an El Nino was predicted but then the trades picked up which changed the forecast entirely, also we came off the back of one of the strongest El Ninos on record which means that La Nina had to come at some point. Every action has an equal or almost equal reaction.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 06/01/2018 20:28

MJO forecast seems to put next western pacific phase quite weak

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml
Posted by: snowbooby

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 06/01/2018 22:34

Originally Posted By: Brett Guy
And in that case the speculation of us on this thread is just as legitimate as the science


Legitimate in the eyes of some maybe - I dare say others who are interested in the subject dont see the repetitious & opinionated comments as legitimate science at all- I think it needs to be said
Posted by: marakai

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 06/01/2018 22:38

Testing, Replication, Reviewing. Unfortunately for Climate Science it seems to be models all the way down, and the only reviewing done is that of past records so that they match the current models.

Hence the current state of affairs where models are reactive instead of predictive, and the only replication done is the regular re-re adjustment of records to match the models and on and on it go's, till we end up with a unison of models that all point one way while mother nature heads off in another direction all together...yet again.

Literally Billions of $ spent and yet it would seem that the preoccupation and concentration on an inert necessary gas has caused a fog that many just can't see past.

Hypothesis, Theory's, Funding, Pal Reviews, Don't make for good Science. Actual predictive and repetitive results do.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 06/01/2018 23:03

Actual predictive and repetitive results don't manifest without hypothesis, theory, and peer review..... So it is hard to make much sense of that Marakai?
Posted by: Brett Guy

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 07/01/2018 07:12

Originally Posted By: snowbooby
Originally Posted By: Brett Guy
And in that case the speculation of us on this thread is just as legitimate as the science


Legitimate in the eyes of some maybe - I dare say others who are interested in the subject dont see the repetitious & opinionated comments as legitimate science at all- I think it needs to be said


I didn't say 'legitimate'. I said 'just as legitimate as the science'. The implication being the science of ENSO prediction is not that legitimate.
PS. I am not referencing anything other than ENSO wink
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 07/01/2018 09:04

Originally Posted By: Brett Guy
Originally Posted By: snowbooby
Originally Posted By: Brett Guy
And in that case the speculation of us on this thread is just as legitimate as the science


Legitimate in the eyes of some maybe - I dare say others who are interested in the subject dont see the repetitious & opinionated comments as legitimate science at all- I think it needs to be said


I didn't say 'legitimate'. I said 'just as legitimate as the science'. The implication being the science of ENSO prediction is not that legitimate.
PS. I am not referencing anything other than ENSO wink


....far more legitimate than the drive-by troll who contributes nothing to the thread...

ENSO models failed spectacularly last year - and it needs to be identified and made public why. 3 months before predicting an El Nino to a La Nina is a serious, dangerous error.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 07/01/2018 09:15

Meanwhile, talking about a lack of credibility, this takes the cake (issued 3 Jan):

Quote:
Australian monsoon onset unlikely in next week
While the monsoon trough briefly influenced the north Western Australia coast in association with tropical cyclone Hilda, northern Australia is yet to experience broadscale monsoonal flow this wet season. By convention, the Australian monsoon onset date occurs when the onset is observed at Darwin. Therefore, by this definition, the Australian monsoon onset has yet to occur—the last time the onset date was this late was during the 2011–12 wet season.
One factor contributing to the delayed start of the Australian monsoon is the continuing tropical activity in the northern hemisphere. A late-season near-equatorial trough persists in the northern hemisphere, extending from a developing low near the Philippines to another weaker tropical low in the Bay of Bengal. This trough lessens the likelihood of monsoonal flow developing in the Australian region, by deflecting energy associated with cross-equatorial flow from the South China Sea. This flow from the South China Sea ideally would energise a southern hemisphere monsoon trough and thereby assist in initiating the northern Australian monsoon onset.


3 days later the monsoon trough formed over Northern Australia.

I said this on 30 Jan:

Originally Posted By: Kino
Hadley Cell is forming; TC’s have started and looking at EC the monsoon should arrive next week for its annual sojourn. I think we will be looking back in 4 weeks time all with smiles on our faces.


And again on 1 Jan:

Quote:
That trough pushing north is what EC said would drag the monsoon down. That MSC on southern GoC looks like a continental squallline often associated with the northward moving trough developing into a monsoon trough.


How can the BoM drop the ball so badly? Why are they never held to account?
Posted by: Brett Guy

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 07/01/2018 09:21

Originally Posted By: Kino
Originally Posted By: Brett Guy
Originally Posted By: snowbooby
Originally Posted By: Brett Guy
And in that case the speculation of us on this thread is just as legitimate as the science


Legitimate in the eyes of some maybe - I dare say others who are interested in the subject dont see the repetitious & opinionated comments as legitimate science at all- I think it needs to be said


I didn't say 'legitimate'. I said 'just as legitimate as the science'. The implication being the science of ENSO prediction is not that legitimate.
PS. I am not referencing anything other than ENSO wink


....far more legitimate than the drive-by troll who contributes nothing to the thread...

ENSO models failed spectacularly last year - and it needs to be identified and made public why. 3 months before predicting an El Nino to a La Nina is a serious, dangerous error.


Not sure why you need to drop personal attacks but if that is what floats your boat go for it. The reality is there is no oppinion on here that does not add to the thread
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 07/01/2018 09:22

It's a general statement and not referring to you in anyway. You always add an interesting perspective. There are others, sadly, who drop by have a go, and disappear again.
Posted by: Brett Guy

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 07/01/2018 09:35

Originally Posted By: Kino
It's a general statement and not referring to you in anyway. You always add an interesting perspective. There are others, sadly, who drop by have a go, and disappear again.


Perhaps. But that is the nature of it. I just don't see the need to lable them trolls. Many contributors (like myself) do not have the technical knowledge to co tribute but we can contribute our personal observations and feelings. But many of us like to see all sides and oppinions.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 07/01/2018 09:44

Originally Posted By: Brett Guy
Originally Posted By: Kino
It's a general statement and not referring to you in anyway. You always add an interesting perspective. There are others, sadly, who drop by have a go, and disappear again.


Perhaps. But that is the nature of it. I just don't see the need to lable them trolls. Many contributors (like myself) do not have the technical knowledge to co tribute but we can contribute our personal observations and feelings. But many of us like to see all sides and oppinions.


I think you totally missed my point - not opinions, they drop by to attack those who disagree with Mike, and then disappear again. If you thinks that's ok, no worries, I think it's not.
Posted by: Brett Guy

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 07/01/2018 09:53

Originally Posted By: Kino
Originally Posted By: Brett Guy
Originally Posted By: Kino
It's a general statement and not referring to you in anyway. You always add an interesting perspective. There are others, sadly, who drop by have a go, and disappear again.


Perhaps. But that is the nature of it. I just don't see the need to lable them trolls. Many contributors (like myself) do not have the technical knowledge to co tribute but we can contribute our personal observations and feelings. But many of us like to see all sides and oppinions.


I think you totally missed my point - not opinions, they drop by to attack those who disagree with Mike, and then disappear again. If you thinks that's ok, no worries, I think it's not.


I don't think it is ok I just try to ignore it now. Many of us have been on the recieving end and have learnt it is better not to acknowledge it as it tends to encourage it.
Posted by: snowbooby

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 07/01/2018 10:18

Originally Posted By: Brett Guy
Originally Posted By: snowbooby
Originally Posted By: Brett Guy
And in that case the speculation of us on this thread is just as legitimate as the science


Legitimate in the eyes of some maybe - I dare say others who are interested in the subject dont see the repetitious & opinionated comments as legitimate science at all- I think it needs to be said


I didn't say 'legitimate'. I said 'just as legitimate as the science'. The implication being the science of ENSO prediction is not that legitimate.
PS. I am not referencing anything other than ENSO wink


Ok I see the distinction. Still, to be as legitimate as the science, as others have pointed out, needs to borrow a bit from scientific "method" - even an enso science with flaws would be ahead of some of the comments that appear in this space.
Posted by: KevD

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 07/01/2018 10:18

Originally Posted By: Kino
Originally Posted By: Brett Guy
Originally Posted By: Kino
It's a general statement and not referring to you in anyway. You always add an interesting perspective. There are others, sadly, who drop by have a go, and disappear again.


Perhaps. But that is the nature of it. I just don't see the need to lable them trolls. Many contributors (like myself) do not have the technical knowledge to co tribute but we can contribute our personal observations and feelings. But many of us like to see all sides and oppinions.


I think you totally missed my point - not opinions, they drop by to attack those who disagree with Mike, and then disappear again. If you thinks that's ok, no worries, I think it's not.

I guess I'd be one of them in your eyes. The thing is that from what I see you never let up or have time out...so I could keep coming back but then it would just be a boring battle of words for everyone else. For what it's worth I don't agree with everything that Mike puts down, but I DO like seeing another perspective and find some great points in his posts (as I see in many other posts) and would be sad to lose them. A one sided forum is not a great space for learning. I also have an issue with personalised attacks on one person and will always jump in at that point. I'm not prepared to be the one who sits to the side. I wish that others could see that there is gold in amongst all the posts on here and take from it what works for them, without seeing a perspective that differs from theirs as a personal attack, which it is not intended to be. Happy to chat further by PM on this, but would prefer not to clog up the thread any more than it has been already.
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 07/01/2018 10:19

A butterfly flapping it's wings in Brazil can cause a tornado in Texas: Chaos Theory. A little change somewhere can cause a big change elsewhere. What the computer models didn't pick up on was the strength of the trades when they picked up
Posted by: snowbooby

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 07/01/2018 19:16

https://www.ess.uci.edu/.../Yu.US%20CLIVAR%20Variations.2015%20winter.pdf

A different approach in modelling ENSO called for in an effort to explain increasing frequency of CP Enso events. Rather than dynamics within equatorial Pacific, precursor regions outside are investigated.

One such - waters off Baja California. Positive SST anoms modifying near surface winds via convection, these wind anoms tend to form to the south west of the area of initial sst anoms - coupling process propagates south-west towards CP Pacific over time.

Positive sst’s extending from Nino 3.4 to NE SubTropical Pacific not present during EP Nino.

Lead lagged regressions of Pacific sst anoms to CP Enso Index show CP Enso preceded by +ve sst anoms off Baja during previous northern winter.

Also regressions of of Pacific sst anoms to NPO index show CP Enso peaks in equatorial Pacific 12 months after peak in NPO events.

Propose the arrival of ST Pacific precursor anoms in equatorial CP triggers local atmos-ocean interactions related to mixed layer dynamics - thermocline not involved.

Shift to increasing frequency of CP type Enso associated with a closer correlation between CP sst variability and NPO Index since early 1990’s.

Also changes in phase of AMO->intensification of Pacific ST High->stronger than average background Trades->strengthening ST Pacific coupling(wind-evaporation-sst feedback)->ST Pacific Precursors more capable of penetrating into deep tropics
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 07/01/2018 19:35

The link returns a 403 restricted error.
Posted by: snowbooby

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 07/01/2018 19:43

OK. I'll see if I can sort that out - I downloaded it myself but it was some months ago

Alternately "Precursors of Enso beyond the tropical Pacific"
Jin-Yi Yu and Houk Paek may find it if you wish to try different link
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 07/01/2018 19:56

One quick question - aren’t the waters off California already considered part of the PDO or is that further north?
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 07/01/2018 20:15

I thought the PDO was associated with SSTs off the Pacific Northwest of the U.S. Has anyone heard of the Equatorial Southern Oscillation Index? it measures the difference in air pressure between Indonesia and the eastern Pacific, the ESOI is showing a La Nina signal but the other SOI isn't.
Posted by: snowbooby

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 07/01/2018 22:56

http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/

says PDO poleward of 20deg must be north of Baja - lower southern California
Posted by: snowbooby

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 07/01/2018 23:28

Originally Posted By: snowbooby
http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/

says PDO poleward of 20deg must be north of Baja - lower southern California


Let me correct that - Baja in this context refers to ocean west of the gulf of california - 20n-30n.
Posted by: Mega

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 08/01/2018 05:11

So here is the monsoon trough lying across the Indian Ocean to WA on Thursday night, linked to a TC.



However, that's as far as she gets, as I suspect the east aussie ridge is just too strong and will deflect any tropical activity away from QLD:


(ridge over E aus, strengthening shortwave through Tasman)

Now this isn't anything out of the ordinary for this time of year but I do think it's become a more regular occurrence over recent years. Something I have noticed though is that when a ridge like that breaks, it usually breaks with a vengeance (see Oswald, see Debbie). Hopefully this time is no different, and areas who still need the rain start getting it.
Posted by: Mega

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 08/01/2018 05:25

Oh and I am not saying that's what's going to happen, I am just saying that it is still early and that there's always the chance that it still could (still have the rest of Jan and Feb / Mar to go).
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 08/01/2018 08:37

Be interesting to see what effect the combined TC and deep Southern Ocean low have on that ridge.
Posted by: ozone doug

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 08/01/2018 09:06

Nice links guys ,Some good discussion going on here.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 08/01/2018 11:10

Tropical convection looks to be going very strong in the Indian Ocean (chart)

Solid high pressure in Pacific pushing trades all the way through the far north Australian region, suppressing the monsoon and feeding into the activity in Indian Ocean. Little change in the forecast period. Some spill of tropical activity into west Australia, eg the charts Mega posted where the Indian Ocean activity has weakened a bit, before it surges again later in the forecast (at 10 days questionable reliability).

More La Nina like would be to have the low pressure region over Australia and not over the Indian Ocean. SOI has dropped like a stone with 30 day now at 0.6, and judging by forecasts might go -ve in the next few days as this pattern continues in at least the short term. MJO forecast to move steadily towards Australia in EC which should shift the pattern, but GFS has it stalling in Indian.

Curiously with strong activity in the Indian, SSTs are on the cool side IMO. A balance between warm and cool, hard to tell which is dominant, but most of the time recently Indian has been a lot warmer. As well as the frequently discussed IOD aspect, I've seen research suggesting warm Indian ocean overall makes Australian drought more likely and cool is favourable for rain. Maybe its a case of enhanced Indian Ocean activity causing the SSTs to cool. But then what causes the enhanced Indian Ocean activity if not warm SSTs?
Posted by: Seina

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 08/01/2018 21:37

Originally Posted By: snowbooby
Also changes in phase of AMO->intensification of Pacific ST High->stronger than average background Trades->strengthening ST Pacific coupling(wind-evaporation-sst feedback)->ST Pacific Precursors more capable of penetrating into deep tropics

Bold - Yes smile , may also be known as the WES Feedback, probably related to the seasonal migration of the ITCZ (from what I've read). May bring the Bjerknes Feedback into the picture more.
Posted by: snowbooby

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 08/01/2018 22:21

Originally Posted By: Seira
Originally Posted By: snowbooby
Also changes in phase of AMO->intensification of Pacific ST High->stronger than average background Trades->strengthening ST Pacific coupling(wind-evaporation-sst feedback)->ST Pacific Precursors more capable of penetrating into deep tropics

Bold - Yes smile , may also be known as the WES Feedback, probably related to the seasonal migration of the ITCZ (from what I've read). May bring the Bjerknes Feedback into the picture more.

That work I was attempting to summarise - unfortunately the links I've since found no longer allow successful download - it was a journal publication and I wonder it may be restricted or subscription access now.
Posted by: marakai

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 09/01/2018 00:21

Quote:
OK. I'll see if I can sort that out - I downloaded it myself but it was some months ago

Alternately "Precursors of Enso beyond the tropical Pacific"
Jin-Yi Yu and Houk Paek may find it if you wish to try different link


https://www.ess.uci.edu/~yu/PDF/Yu.US%20CLIVAR%20Variations.2015%20winter.pdf
Posted by: CoastalStorm22

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 09/01/2018 08:26

Whether it holds or not the reversal of the SOI in the last 30 days has been rather dramatic.
Posted by: Dusty Rusty

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 10/01/2018 03:14

All indications suggest that the wet season is over, it was weak & short lived.
Time to get back to business now the wet season is over. Time to plough the bottom paddock. BOM has no idea what they are doing, forecasting La Niña during one of the dryest Januarys on record.
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 10/01/2018 06:28

We still have February, March and April, there is still time. GFS still has that trade burst going on so La Nina could start to strengthen hopefully.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 10/01/2018 09:02

It seems that the warm water/persistent troughing around NZ encourages that coastal ridge along Qld coast. Seems that the ridge will return again for a period later this week into early next week before weakening allowing a wetter period from mid next week to set in over larger areas of Qld.
Posted by: ashestoashes

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 10/01/2018 11:42

Apparently the monsoon trough is supposed to lengthen to bring rainfall fingers crossed for you Far North Queenslanders this eventuates.
Weekly Tropical Note BOM
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 10/01/2018 11:56

30 day SOI down to -4.5. Monthly SOI for December was -1.4. SOI is by far the best indicator of ENSO influence on Australian rainfall, and the December SOI suggests a weak dry influence.
The problem with SOI is that it can turn on a dime and is much harder to predict than nino 3.4 etc, which is why all the discussion and modelling is usually on the SSTs.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 10/01/2018 11:59

SOI will change markedly by next week - monsoon trough here and going to deepen; MJO pushing here and persistent low pressure near Darwin. Watch it bounce back dramatically.
Posted by: Mega

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 10/01/2018 12:03

Originally Posted By: Petros
It seems that the warm water/persistent troughing around NZ encourages that coastal ridge along Qld coast. Seems that the ridge will return again for a period later this week into early next week before weakening allowing a wetter period from mid next week to set in over larger areas of Qld.


Honestly that troughing seems to be there whether the waters in that area are warm or not. Not sure why. Next big shortwave conveniently stays south as it's passing across southern Australia but then magically amplifies once it's hit the Tasman Sea on the weekend. As a result we're left with more drier SSE'lies pushing up from Antarctica behind the stupid low followed by more weak high pressure cells in the northern Tasman (when they should be further south). I was under the impression that La-Nina was supposed to encourage ridging through the southern Tasman Sea which then feeds into troughing over Australia...which mostly isn't happening (the coast is doing better under thunderstorms from W > E shortwave troughs) but the long onshore flows which lead to big rain events seem to be missing at the moment.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 10/01/2018 12:16

Originally Posted By: Mega
Originally Posted By: Petros
It seems that the warm water/persistent troughing around NZ encourages that coastal ridge along Qld coast. Seems that the ridge will return again for a period later this week into early next week before weakening allowing a wetter period from mid next week to set in over larger areas of Qld.


Honestly that troughing seems to be there whether the waters in that area are warm or not. Not sure why. Next big shortwave conveniently stays south as it's passing across southern Australia but then magically amplifies once it's hit the Tasman Sea on the weekend. As a result we're left with more drier SSE'lies pushing up from Antarctica behind the stupid low followed by more weak high pressure cells in the northern Tasman (when they should be further south). I was under the impression that La-Nina was supposed to encourage ridging through the southern Tasman Sea which then feeds into troughing over Australia...which mostly isn't happening (the coast is doing better under thunderstorms from W > E shortwave troughs) but the long onshore flows which lead to big rain events seem to be missing at the moment.


Models are going to dynamically change IMO as there's a huge surge of cold ne'er's heading our way from the South China sea, significantly amplifying the monsoon trough. Expect Hadley Cell (read STR as well) to then push further south.
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 10/01/2018 12:46

Well Mega, when I saw the latest EC upper pattern and even with my limited ability to read them and the huge upper trough/low that surges out into the Tasman and stays forever I thought of you. You seem to understand the devastating effects it has on rain over SE QLD and NE NSW. You can get 20 cyclones over the Gulf that will move west and hit WA and 20 over the Coral sea and they will all roar off to the SE, then New Zealand. Of course, I am hoping like crazy, that the others like Kino are right and this pattern ends soon.
Cheers
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 10/01/2018 13:49

According to the models the surge of NEs won't do anything noticeable to push the Hadley Cell further south, and at the end of the run the Ridge stays firm which holds the westerlies near the equator as they start to enter the West Pacific for possibly the next WWB.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 10/01/2018 14:02

BoM disagrees:

Originally Posted By: BoM
The focus of tropical rainfall during much of the coming week will be in the region affected by the developing tropical low over Western Australia. Model guidance generally indicates that a weak monsoon trough will persist over northern Australia during this period. There are also indications that a surge of wind through the South China Sea (not observed in recent days) may develop and cross the equator and feed into the pre-existing monsoon trough in the Australian region. Depending on the status and location of the potential tropical cyclone over Western Australia, this wind surge could potentially invigorate the monsoon trough and lead to some widespread rainfall across northern Australia later in the week.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 10/01/2018 15:06

Widespread rainfall across northern Australia or invigoration of the trough does not mean the Hadley Cell will push south or that the ridge will weaken, or that westerlies can't enter the western Pacific.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 10/01/2018 15:11

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Widespread rainfall across northern Australia or invigoration of the trough does not mean the Hadley Cell will push south or that the ridge will weaken, or that westerlies can't enter the western Pacific.



The dynamics of the Hadley Cell and it's relationship with the monsoon trough absolutely mean the Hadley Cell will dip south - the 2 are inextricably linked.

Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 10/01/2018 15:48

Models show no general southward movement of the monsoon trough, so no pressure on the Hadley Cell to move south. Invigoration of the trough does not mean it has to move south.

In many cases when the Monsoon trough moves south it does so locally and the High pressure belt responds by thinning to the south, and thickening further east and west without necessarily moving further south. Some of the N-S circulation gets transferred to E-W circulations.
Posted by: Mega

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 10/01/2018 16:27

GFS Extended has been showing a strong monsoonal surge pushing across the top end in 2 weeks time but I wouldn't want to call it this far out.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 10/01/2018 16:29

Originally Posted By: Mega
GFS Extended has been showing a strong monsoonal surge pushing across the top end in 2 weeks time but I wouldn't want to call it this far out.


Agree, for the BoM to note it they must be pretty confident.
Posted by: Funkyseefunkydo

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 10/01/2018 17:04

It's also showing a high pressure system in the coral sea. What's going on there?
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 10/01/2018 19:02

Big call that Qld will do poor for rainfall from here-on to end of the tropical season for Qld Mike Hauber. If that happens, I'll be the first to take my hat off to you!
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 10/01/2018 22:26

La Nina could be about to strengthen quite quickly if the current GFS trade wind forecast comes off.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 10/01/2018 22:56

Putting aside the La Niña "state", the period around Australia Day is always interesting.
My observation (or more specifically unfounded opinion) is that heat absorption peak from the sun lags behind the cycles of daylight hours. Coldest day of year often about four to six weeks after shortest day of year. Hottest days albeit depending on cloudiness often around late Jan early Feb again Four to six weeks after longest day of the year.
There are a remarkable number of Sub topics region most major floods in history that happen at this time.
But that said anywhere south of Fraser Island can get floods at almost anytime of year thanks to ECLs so I don't write off any so called south east Qld wet season until June.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 11/01/2018 22:27

So BoM issued the 11 Jan climate outlook today.
For much of Qld except the far north cape suggests about 55-60% chance of exceeding February to April median rainfall (that happens anyway 50% of years at this time of year), and past accuracy is about 50% consistent. Sort of pointless producing a colour map for that and it would probably be easier and more widely understood if was said it will be about average and we think we half right👍
For Western Australia though February looking good.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 11/01/2018 22:57

Forecast MJO on GFS ensemble "GEFS" for about two weeks away now looking good compared to recent forecasts.
BOMs model MJO forecast (not sure if it is POAMA or ACCESS) also looking good. Hopefully ECMWF will come on board as well.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ncpe.shtml
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 12/01/2018 09:22

GFS long range has some activity firing up in 2 weeks time which although very long range is in the right time frame considering current MJO movements and forecast. Every run chops and changes where lows may pop up anywhere north of Australia, and which direction they take - this run takes the eastern low SW towards the Qld coast with a strong easterly feed.

It will depend on how the eastern ridge behaves. Maybe it will give way to the monsoon surge, or happen to be weak in between two southern highs when the surge arrives so that it has less impact. Some of the surge could be trapped to the west of the ridge and push south for some big rainfall in central or inland eastern Australia, wich is a little like an el nino modoki type thing with wet season starting late, ending early but intense rains. Or the ridge could deflect the surge more to the north with it pushing into Pacific for the next WWB, similar to the last MJO passage.
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 12/01/2018 09:38

GFS is increasing the size of the trade burst even more, be interesting to see what effects it will have, CFS has responded and has several runs predicting 3.4 to go below -2 which would be dramatic if it did
Posted by: Funkyseefunkydo

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 12/01/2018 09:45

SAM forecast to go high positive should help.

An observation. Seems Indonesia has had a very good surf for its off season. Lots of swell.
Posted by: Snapper22lb

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 12/01/2018 12:25

In Bali now - constant heavy monsoonal showers and squalls.
Posted by: GringosRain

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 12/01/2018 12:46

lots of moisture streaming across the continent again......
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 12/01/2018 13:03

Yep Gringo, looks impressive:



Good to see SW Qld getting a little something, while the rest of the state suffers under that well-noted, and persistent, coastal ridge that keeps re-forming.

I feel greedy down here in SW Vic hoping for a storm/12mm+ rain in coming hours when the change impacts us from the SW. .....then there's talk of snow on the alps Nth of here tomorrow night. Australia for you.
Posted by: Mega

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 12/01/2018 15:25

All slips south into southern NT / WA



Just like what happened to last year's wet season:



But then we're supposed to believe that whatever rain falls in WA will transfer into NSW & QLD. Alrighty. Maybe if there wasn't a huge ridge over our side of the country, but otherwise - no.
Posted by: Mega

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 12/01/2018 15:45

Given the MJO is stuck in the IO this is completely normal though. When the MJO pushes east it will contract the tropical convection along with it into NT / NW QLD which is more favorable for NSW / QLD IF a front just happens to come along and capture that tropical moisture. If not - then we'll just be ridged in down here, but at least NQ will hopefully see a long awaited monsoon.
Posted by: GringosRain

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 12/01/2018 15:54

Agreed. But if the MJO was stuck there in a neutral or Elnino, the same thing would be happening IMO. It has been raining in SA and Victoria today and its streaming across the country from that highly active region. The blocking high will mean sweet FA in the east until it properly moves and lets low pressure develop over coastal regions....not just once every 3 or 6 months but regularly (or a full change to LP dominance instead of HP off the east coast. TC in coral sea in 12-14 days time.....see what happens.
Posted by: Mick10

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 12/01/2018 17:59

Originally Posted By: Mega


But then we're supposed to believe that whatever rain falls in WA will transfer into NSW & QLD. Alrighty. Maybe if there wasn't a huge ridge over our side of the country, but otherwise - no.


its all to do with our geographical positioning Mega! crazy
Posted by: Flowin

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 12/01/2018 18:20

The Qld high pressure ridge is getting boring.
When it goes will be welcome
Bring on the MJO...a bit further east please, and maybe some SAM too.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 13/01/2018 08:52

Flowin - Wait for the sun to start its next turn around starting maybe 2019-20.
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 13/01/2018 09:06

EC also has an upper high over eastern Australia at the end of it's runs.
Posted by: RC

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 13/01/2018 21:11

It is bizarre, the seven day trend says the SST's along the equator are warmer. Yet there it is supposed to be in the middle of a strong trade burst.

You can see on the sea surface level anomaly the water is pushed up along the Indonesian side, will it rebound?
Posted by: Mega

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 13/01/2018 21:49

Originally Posted By: RC
It is bizarre, the seven day trend says the SST's along the equator are warmer. Yet there it is supposed to be in the middle of a strong trade burst.


I don't get it either. You would think a trade wind burst of this magnitude would further enhance La-Nina more than anything else.
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 13/01/2018 22:12

I'm wondering if there is a glitch somewhere which is throwing off the readings because a few days ago there was an area of water three degrees below normal in the Pacific and it practically vanished overnight, when there is a major trade burst going on.
Posted by: Mega

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 13/01/2018 22:17

I noticed that too Chris, I would agree it's a glitch of some sort. However none of the models really have this Nina deepening any further either, despite the current trade wind burst. I'll have a look around and see what I can find.
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 14/01/2018 00:14

CFS is reacting to the trade wind burst and it probably won't be long before others start reacting as well.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 14/01/2018 09:03

Originally Posted By: Chris Stumer
CFS is reacting to the trade wind burst and it probably won't be long before others start reacting as well.


This is a good point - ENSO models are still far too reactive than predictive - may as well get the tealeaves out.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 14/01/2018 12:09

Trade winds in central and east and central pacific have been near normal for the last few weeks and with a warm subsurface kelvin wave there is no surprise there is a slight warming. This warming will get a lot stronger once the Kelvin wave reaches the east coast.



Assuming the Kelvin wave is still in play. Subsurface data seems to suggest that it may have stalled, and heat content has actually decreased near 120W, around where I think the leading edge of the Kelvin wave might be.



However there does appear to be an issue with TAO missing data, which shows up looking at a depth section through 120W (running north-south in contrast to the normal east west depth section) Not sure why the data is shown as missing in this view, but not in other views. Maybe TAO display has rules that allow smoothing over missing values if there is only one missing, so an East to West view has only one missing value at 120W so is smoothed over, whereas north to south there is 3 missing values in a row so gap is shown.

Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 14/01/2018 12:19

Originally Posted By: Chris Stumer
CFS is reacting to the trade wind burst and it probably won't be long before others start reacting as well.


CFS had been showing nino 3.4 dropping down to about -1.5 a couple months ago. Overall it has been pushing the forecast warmer over time.
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 14/01/2018 12:50

Missing data can throw the whole forecast out and mess with readings etc. Hopefully it can be corrected.
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 15/01/2018 07:35

Lucky we had 1 above average month in October, 3 months of well below average rainfall now here.

This La Nina is incredible!!!!!

Just drove Townsville to Emerald and its bone dry the whole way.
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 15/01/2018 08:33

Another shower event tomorrow though. Might be lucky enough to snag 10mm.

Then the ridge is here to stay until Feb with no trade showers. #bringbacknino
Posted by: KevD

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 15/01/2018 11:47

Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
Another shower event tomorrow though. Might be lucky enough to snag 10mm.

Then the ridge is here to stay until Feb with no trade showers. #bringbacknino

Yep, this Nina has been set in a pattern for months now...If it had set in a wet pattern we would have all been washed away by now, but stuck in this pattern is bad news for many. Either way patterns that stick for too long are no good to anyone - guarantee too wet or too dry.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 15/01/2018 12:35

The pacific pattern has been similar for several years in some ways - NW/SE La Nina, NE/SW el nino. And we are in the SW.

NE el nino like aspects seem to be continuing, despite the PDO index approaching 0. There has been lower pressure persistently in NE Pacific, but it seems to have not been able to impact on trade winds at all. The NW La Nina like strengthened high pressure ridge seems to have shifted more to the central Pacific which is squeezing the lower pressures in NE.

SE High pressure was the prime driver of cooling IMO, especially at first, and seems to be weakening now with central north Pacific prime driver. Current SSTs show some similarity to the SPMM pattern for a flip towards an el nino like SPMM, but the warm SSTs of South America are further south. Watch to see if this warming extends further north.

SW Pacific had a strong el nino like signal with strong low pressure extending far east from the coral sea pushing a strong westerly influence towards the equator. This was somewhat offset by the enhanced North Pacific High but still generated a substantial WWB.

However now the tropical convection in SW Pacific has gone quiet and I am waiting for the next MJO passage to see if there is a continuation of most activity being much further east, or whether the next round of activity is further west. Subdued activity favours more easterly winds, but being subdued through both Coral Sea and Gulf is bad news for northern Qld wet season.
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 15/01/2018 16:19

Townsville is in a bad way if the wet season fails again because there are no emergency plans in place if the dam runs dry. La Nina isn't delivering for some reason.
Posted by: Funkyseefunkydo

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 15/01/2018 17:17

Well if it's due to Hadley cell expansion you will have to get used to drier conditions.
Posted by: Raindammit

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 15/01/2018 17:39

Originally Posted By: Chris Stumer
Townsville is in a bad way if the wet season fails again because there are no emergency plans in place if the dam runs dry. La Nina isn't delivering for some reason.


We can pump from the Burdekin Dam (Currently at 74%) at a cost, so Townsville will be fine if the Ross River Dam runs dry. Would not be an ideal situation however.
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 15/01/2018 18:13

Don't farmers irrigate with water out of the Burdekin Dam? Shouldn't the Hadley Cell expansion make it wetter because of increased trade winds?
Posted by: scott12

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 15/01/2018 19:06

Originally Posted By: Dawgggg

This La Nina is incredible!!!!!

Just drove Townsville to Emerald and its bone dry the whole way.


Yep drove it a couple of weeks ago myself..its like a desert..almost totally devoid of any groundcover at all...I doubt they have had any decent rain in the last 5 yrs..south of Emerald you could see that these recent storms that moved across towards Bundaberg had got some feed growing in central QLD but north of Emerald is absolutely shocking
Posted by: Mega

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 16/01/2018 04:09

Looking like a very healthy Siberian High setting up this week, sending very cold air down through parts of Asia during the weekend and through next week. Wonder whether this will play a role in aiding the strengthening monsoon trough that the models are starting to pick up on at the end of their respective runs?
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 16/01/2018 14:34

20mm in the dam catchment overnight.

Now no rain until at leasr Febuary....at least!
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 16/01/2018 16:08

La Nina could be just about over according to TAO/TRITON with the cold pool just about dissipated which is extremely unusual as there has been a major trade wind burst.
Posted by: paulcirrus

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 16/01/2018 19:55

I think it finished a month ago smile
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 16/01/2018 20:27

But then it also depends on whether TAO/TRITON is given off the right readings because a trade wind burst of that intensity should be resulting in cooling.
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 17/01/2018 08:57

Got 2 months to fill the Dam.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 17/01/2018 19:00

Trav, are you writing off a chance of a cyclone (or tropical storm system) to top up the dam for Townsville?
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 17/01/2018 19:53

Its more than likely going to get its annual top up back to 20% capacity that it has been getting for the last 4 years.

I cant see a good wet season here, or an average one at this stage. Not one bit.

Oct to Jan here at my place is now only 150mm or so.
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 17/01/2018 19:54

I dont know where the rain will come from.
Posted by: RC

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 17/01/2018 20:12

The sky of course.
Posted by: _Johnno_

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 17/01/2018 21:30

From the BOM yesterday...

5-day sub-surface temperatures
The sub-surface temperature map for the 5 days ending 13 January shows a pool of cooler than average water in the top 100 m of the eastern equatorial Pacific, while in the western equatorial Pacific sub-surface warm anomalies are present between around 100 and 150 m below the surface. Anomalies reached more than two degrees cooler and warmer than average, respectively, in these regions.

The development of a warm pool in the sub-surface of the western equatorial Pacific is a typical precursor to the breakdown of a La Niña. However, the strength of warm anomalies has decreased slightly compared to two weeks ago.
Posted by: _Johnno_

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 17/01/2018 22:23

Also this...

The broadscale weather pattern in the region is currently not favourable for this to occur. This is primarily due to an out-of-season tropical low which is currently located off the north coast of Borneo. This low is drawing in the energy associated with a surge of winds from the South China Sea which might otherwise cross the equator and energise the monsoon trough in the Australian region. The presence of tropical lows in the northern Indian Ocean during the austral summer has been a recurring theme during the current Australian wet season, and has played a significant role in the lack of monsoonal activity across northern Australia to date.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 18/01/2018 08:09

Just what I have been posting over the few weeks.
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 18/01/2018 11:08

That trade burst looks to keep going and going, the ocean looks like it could be starting to respond.
Posted by: GringosRain

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 19/01/2018 08:05

Does anyone have a link or links showing model animations or still images of the LWT nodes- ie entire southern ocean view?
Posted by: KevD

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 19/01/2018 11:12

Originally Posted By: GringosRain
Does anyone have a link or links showing model animations or still images of the LWT nodes- ie entire southern ocean view?


http://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/?lt=hemisphere&lc=sh smile
Posted by: GringosRain

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 19/01/2018 15:54

Thanks KevD
Posted by: Funkyseefunkydo

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 19/01/2018 16:15

Those cyclones on gfs 8-16 day charts have stayed there for a while.
Posted by: GringosRain

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 19/01/2018 17:12

There is some serious cold weather in NH. crazy opposite of us.
With reference to the north American great lakes from a couple days ago...
Today, 17 Jan 2018, total ice cover is 35.5%.
On this date a year ago, ice coverage was 13.5%.
And on this date in 2016, it was 6.7%

+ Deep cold across the US.

Storm Eleanor in Europe at beginning of Jan forced the simultaneous closing of all 5 flood gates in Netherlands for the first time in history.

Also -60c temps in Siberia a few days back.

I have an idea what the driver is, but each to their own on that. Just seems like huge extremes in each hemisphere this month.
Posted by: Mega

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 19/01/2018 17:30

Siberian High is back baby, like I said a few days ago. Of course not sure if that's linked to the extreme cold in the US though. As for locally, I wonder if those excessively warm SSTs out in the Tasman Sea have actually worked against us since that trough/low has sat there for 7 going on 9 days straight. Would have been better for that warmer water to be positioned further NW over the Coral Sea than down there. I could be wrong but it's just a thought.
Posted by: GringosRain

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 19/01/2018 18:08

after that low formed in the position it did I recon the warm water did work against us. There were some earlier runs where it formed in the northern Tasman and was cradled by the high.....that would have been beautiful. I think again the the blocking high is just so rabidly wanting to put a ridge up the east coast it just forced the low into that position...and then it had plenty of juice to keep running. There is still plenty of energy there though...especially as the atmosphere starts to cool or it starts throwing up cold pools.
The siberian high should force the monsoon south yeah. = delete blocking high!!??
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 19/01/2018 18:57

GFS wants the blocking high gone. EC and other models seem to only weaken it.

The GFS option allows more of the energy of the currently approaching monsoon winds to flow south away from the equator and reduce the potential of the next WWB in the West Pac.
Posted by: Mega

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 20/01/2018 06:46

Originally Posted By: GringosRain
The siberian high should force the monsoon south yeah. = delete blocking high!!??


I don't know what it takes to get rid of this blocking ridge tbh. Most models are now showing a strong monsoon trough surging across the tropics and out into the Coral Sea. Some dip it south onto the NQ coast (CMC, GFS) while others aren't interested at all. Even that part is heavily dependent on tropical low development though. But speaking on a broader scale, unless you're located in the northern tropics then it doesn't look good imho because everything just gets deflected around this ridge which always seems to take forever go away. Hopefully NQ get hammered though because they need it the most out of all of us.
Posted by: GringosRain

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 20/01/2018 08:17

and central inland QLD + coast looks to get a decent drink this week, including Townsville....so that should put some smiles on faces up there. Can turn around quickly if it really puts on a show. Expected precipitation around here in next 7 days is .2mm....40 degrees each day. Blocking high might now play a helpful role for QLD, but certainly not yet in this region (Hunter Valley). At least the models are showing some signs of lower pressure in coastal eastern Australia (though GFS runs arent showing TC crossing anymore). Time for some to finally get a drink.

P.s. I know there is a lot of talk about how IOD doesnt impact summer rainfall, but if you look at the Indian Ocean anomalies you can see a heap of cold water off Africa and warmer water around the Australian continent.....as far as I can see this is just the Indian oceans version of ENSO (La nina), and may help explain why it has been so active in the west and also why there there is westerly wind anomalies up to 120e where it abruptly shifts to eastern anomalies (trades).
Can you get TAO SST, and subsurface map cross section for the IO? Id like to see them if anyone has them. It seems both these maritime regions are priming moisture onto the continent from their respective wet phases for Australia and in reality there should be big floods very soon. If it doesnt happen, it really has to make you wonder.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 20/01/2018 08:29

GFS is less pessimistic about tropical Queensland rain chances than many on this forum:

Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 20/01/2018 09:13

Somebody may find this article timely and interesting.
https://www.warwickdailynews.com.au/news/daf-no-drought-no-worries/3314576/
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 20/01/2018 09:49

I believe the Se Inland of QLD(WEST OF THE BRISBANE RIVER THAT IS) and large areas of the southern inland of QLD is a forgotten area and I do read all the threads and I know many areas of Eastern Australia are in desperate need of rain and I hope it comes soon.
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 20/01/2018 10:27

The subsurface is warming up according to latest TAO/TRITON, whether it is only temporary remains to be seen or if TAO/TRITON is giving off the right readings. CFS is still on the La Nina side of neutral for the rest of 2018.
Posted by: Locke

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 20/01/2018 12:21

I see the subsurface in the west cooling. Whilst there are still warm anomalies they are not as high as they were several weeks ago.
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 20/01/2018 12:27

That trade burst has had to have down something and the other area of interest is that Siberia is extremely cold, doesn't Siberia get extremely cold before we get big rain events?
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 20/01/2018 19:45

Abnormally cold Siberia = strong Hadley Cell - should really ramp up the Monsoon trough as is happening right now. Once it's established it should get rid of that Northern rubbish and firmly kick into gear the southern side.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 20/01/2018 20:36

Hadley Cell goes to about 30N. Siberia is a long way north of that. The region of China that is within the Hadley Cell has been warmer than average of late.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 20/01/2018 20:41

You do wreck a good party Mike. smile wink

[edit] - I wasn't aware of the warm Chinese weather
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 20/01/2018 20:52




Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - Weatherzone Forums

















































































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#1449364 - Yesterday at 18:57



Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc)


[Re: ColdFront]


Mike Hauber
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GFS wants the blocking high gone. EC and other models seem to only weaken it.

The GFS option allows more of the energy of the currently approaching monsoon winds to flow south away from the equator and reduce the potential of the next WWB in the West Pac.









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#1449391 - Today at 06:46



Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc)

[Re: GringosRain]


Mega
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Originally Posted By: GringosRain
The siberian high should force the monsoon south yeah. = delete blocking high!!??


I don't know what it takes to get rid of this blocking ridge tbh. Most models are now showing a strong monsoon trough surging across the tropics and out into the Coral Sea. Some dip it south onto the NQ coast (CMC, GFS) while others aren't interested at all. Even that part is heavily dependent on tropical low development though. But speaking on a broader scale, unless you're located in the northern tropics then it doesn't look good imho because everything just gets deflected around this ridge which always seems to take forever go away. Hopefully NQ get hammered though because they need it the most out of all of us.









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#1449398 - Today at 08:17



Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc)

[Re: ColdFront]


GringosRain
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and central inland QLD + coast looks to get a decent drink this week, including Townsville....so that should put some smiles on faces up there. Can turn around quickly if it really puts on a show. Expected precipitation around here in next 7 days is .2mm....40 degrees each day. Blocking high might now play a helpful role for QLD, but certainly not yet in this region (Hunter Valley). At least the models are showing some signs of lower pressure in coastal eastern Australia (though GFS runs arent showing TC crossing anymore). Time for some to finally get a drink.

P.s. I know there is a lot of talk about how IOD doesnt impact summer rainfall, but if you look at the Indian Ocean anomalies you can see a heap of cold water off Africa and warmer water around the Australian continent.....as far as I can see this is just the Indian oceans version of ENSO (La nina), and may help explain why it has been so active in the west and also why there there is westerly wind anomalies up to 120e where it abruptly shifts to eastern anomalies (trades).
Can you get TAO SST, and subsurface map cross section for the IO? Id like to see them if anyone has them. It seems both these maritime regions are priming moisture onto the continent from their respective wet phases for Australia and in reality there should be big floods very soon. If it doesnt happen, it really has to make you wonder.









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#1449399 - Today at 08:29



Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc)

[Re: ColdFront]


Petros
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GFS is less pessimistic about tropical Queensland rain chances than many on this forum:










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#1449402 - Today at 09:13



Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc)

[Re: ColdFront]


NotsohopefulPete
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Somebody may find this article timely and interesting.
https://www.warwickdailynews.com.au/news/daf-no-drought-no-worries/3314576/






Edited by NotsohopefulPete (Today at 09:14)





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#1449408 - Today at 09:49



Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc)

[Re: ColdFront]


NotsohopefulPete
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I believe the Se Inland of QLD(WEST OF THE BRISBANE RIVER THAT IS) and large areas of the southern inland of QLD is a forgotten area and I do read all the threads and I know many areas of Eastern Australia are in desperate need of rain and I hope it comes soon.









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#1449417 - Today at 10:27



Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc)

[Re: ColdFront]


Chris Stumer
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The subsurface is warming up according to latest TAO/TRITON, whether it is only temporary remains to be seen or if TAO/TRITON is giving off the right readings. CFS is still on the La Nina side of neutral for the rest of 2018.









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#1449424 - Today at 12:21



Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc)

[Re: ColdFront]


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I see the subsurface in the west cooling. Whilst there are still warm anomalies they are not as high as they were several weeks ago.






_________________________

This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.





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#1449427 - Today at 12:27



Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc)

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That trade burst has had to have down something and the other area of interest is that Siberia is extremely cold, doesn't Siberia get extremely cold before we get big rain events?









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#1449475 - Today at 19:45



Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc)

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Posts: 1614



Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus





Abnormally cold Siberia = strong Hadley Cell - should really ramp up the Monsoon trough as is happening right now. Once it's established it should get rid of that Northern rubbish and firmly kick into gear the southern side.









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#1449479 - 10 minutes 30 seconds ago



Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc)

[Re: ColdFront]


Mike Hauber
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Weatherzone Addict





Registered: 13/07/2007


Posts: 2856



Loc: Buderim





Hadley Cell goes to about 30N. Siberia is a long way north of that. The region of China that is within the Hadley Cell has been warmer than average of late.









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#1449481 - 5 minutes 46 seconds ago



Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc)

[Re: ColdFront]


Petros
Online   content



Meteorological Motor Mouth





Registered: 30/12/2002


Posts: 6753



Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...





You do wreck a good party Mike. smile wink

[edit] - I wasn't aware of the warm Chinese weather






Edited by Petros (3 minutes 26 seconds ago)





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