Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc)

Posted by: ColdFront

Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 02/01/2019 20:30

A new year. Let's see what it brings .
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 02/01/2019 21:45

Warm neutral til May and then we see where things are at.
Posted by: Mega

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 02/01/2019 22:26

Originally Posted By: Kino
Warm neutral til May and then we see where things are at.


What he said.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 02/01/2019 22:58

Yep. Hopefully a wetter year but you'd be brave to back it.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 03/01/2019 10:53

WWB anomaly is evident at the Kelvin wave generation zone atm, supported by a couple of tropical storm systems below the zone and the MJO now departing Aus region.

SST today, not much to report except my perceived coastal warming off NW WA.

US models hold the MJO at in the Pacific, European varieties favour a return to the Indian.

I think, in the short term (week or two), Aus will have a persistent heat low/easterly dip situation that will allow QLD moisture to advect into the country's south east.,
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 03/01/2019 10:56

Generally it does look stormier for the next few weeks, but we shall see. If Penny can get her [censored] together and barrel sw like models thinks then we could see a very wet Jan.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 03/01/2019 11:27

I don't see much change from the status quo in the next 10 days (for Sth East Qld region) unless EC's last run on Penny verifies. If it pushes back north like GFS and CMC have then it's back to more ridging and dry conditions.

Also ironically starting to see some hint of a more traditional ElNino surface pattern on NOAA's charts with the characteristic cooling across Torres Strait and the Coral Sea trying to emerge . A little late?
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 03/01/2019 11:56

Penny's moisture supply onto the continent and resulting rainfall is probably going to be a lot less than it could be. I have provided the EC forecast for crossing, combined with some crayon drawings of the ideal moisture flows, as would occur more often in a La Nina set up.



Stronger trade winds along the equator in the east would be diverted as NEs and feed into the low on the southern flank. The monsoon westerlies would be bent around the north side of the low to join this stream.

However with much warmer water out in the central Pacific we see a significant low pressure system out past New Caledonia. This is totally blocking the NE flow, and diverting a substantial portion of the NW flow into a Westerly wind burst and away from TC Penny.

The eastern flow further south, supported by the Tasman Sea High is still quite healthy.
Posted by: Mega

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 03/01/2019 14:27

As I suspected, SSTs have continued to soar through the high pressure blocking region, no different to last year. That's two years in a row despite the Pacific being cold last year and warm this year. Something much closer to home in play here?

Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 03/01/2019 14:51

Well they would given that high has been there for 4 months. Wish that warmer water was along the coast, it’s damn frigid here - only 17c yest thanks to upwelling.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 03/01/2019 15:02

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Penny's moisture supply onto the continent and resulting rainfall is probably going to be a lot less than it could be. I have provided the EC forecast for crossing, combined with some crayon drawings of the ideal moisture flows, as would occur more often in a La Nina set up.



Stronger trade winds along the equator in the east would be diverted as NEs and feed into the low on the southern flank. The monsoon westerlies would be bent around the north side of the low to join this stream.

However with much warmer water out in the central Pacific we see a significant low pressure system out past New Caledonia. This is totally blocking the NE flow, and diverting a substantial portion of the NW flow into a Westerly wind burst and away from TC Penny.

The eastern flow further south, supported by the Tasman Sea High is still quite healthy.


Looks fine....healthy NE indeed.

Posted by: Long Road Home

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 03/01/2019 15:16

Totally blocking the NE flow? Don't think so, plenty of fuel should be dragged into that system despite the other low.

It may seem a bit cut off for now, but the supply will become healthier the longer Penny stays out there https://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shwvgms.html
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 03/01/2019 15:20

Yeah I’m not sure why anyone would use an 850hpa wind model chart to show moisture movement into a TC...when it’s all surface based. 🙄🙄 TC’s rely on surface moisture not mid level moisture.
Posted by: Long Road Home

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 03/01/2019 15:24

Technically they do need moisture in all levels, otherwise if too much dry air enters at 850hp it can deprive the system. However, the moisture source from the NW (at that particular level) should be sufficient and act as a fuel source as it moves back toward the coast. To say there's a total block of the NE flow is a bit silly.
Posted by: Mega

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 03/01/2019 15:31

Despite the lack of equatorial easterlies wrapping into the system like you'd sometimes see during a La-Nina, the strength of the current monsoonal flow is more than enough to wrap around and fuel these lows. So, I think it looks fine tbh.

Originally Posted By: Kino
Yeah I’m not sure why anyone would use an 850hpa wind model chart to show moisture movement into a TC...when it’s all surface based. 🙄🙄 TC’s rely on surface moisture not mid level moisture.


Nah, it's not all surface. You sometimes see cyclones struggle with dry air intrusion when there's a significant upper level trough just downstream from the TC. Sometimes, dry air in the mid-levels gets brought up from the south behind these troughs which affects convection around the LLCC.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 03/01/2019 15:40

Well perhaps post an 850hpa moisture chart not a wind chart?
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 03/01/2019 15:47

Totally blocks of the long distance NE flow, as marked by the heavy black line I added to the chart. This is the flow that transfers large amounts of moisture from the equatorial easterlies onto the Australian Continent when Walker circulation is active and local patterns are favourable.

Yes there is still a local NE flow, and yes there is plenty enough moisture for a cyclone and rain. But not nearly as much moisture as there could be if ENSO was more favourable. Rainfall totals near the center of the cyclone will be as high, but the rainfall totals will drop off a lot quicker as you move away from the cyclone, and as the cyclone moves inland than they would with a strong long range NE flow.
Posted by: ashestoashes

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 03/01/2019 16:25

Mike you are definitely correct that the equatorial moisture is not as great as it would be with a La Nina or Neutral.
With Easterlies basically not existent at the edge of the nino 4 region. Although what your drawing misses is other monsoonal low drawing a meridonal wind flow which combines a high sitting south below it to drive long fetch easterlies from more central areas of the pacific. Hence providing adequate fuel which will see inland areas pick up decent rain.


Posted by: RC

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 03/01/2019 17:07

/sigh. More huge pictures requiring sideways scrolling.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 03/01/2019 17:22

No such problem for me with 125% zoom on a 22" monitor .
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 03/01/2019 18:30

Very informative posts today all smile

Didnt like to see GFS's latest "stealing Penny from us" just now.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 03/01/2019 18:33

GFS would be good for us in Sth East Qld but I cannot see it verifying. There would need to be a dramatic change in the uppers before it came our way.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/01/2019 09:50

Trades look to be weaker in Nino3.4 this morning, sky clear above it acc. to the satellite images, yet SST there seems to be backing off?:



Nino1.2 has cooled, yet Nino.3 remains static at circa +0.6C as it has been for several weeks.

I would have thought these conditions would hold Nino3.4 anomalously warm?

I note that most MJO models have it dashing across phase 6 over next couple of days, after that, very little consensus, so likely to go null imo.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/01/2019 11:53

I'm somewhat suspiscious of that daily series. I doubt nino 3.4 really went from 0.5 to 1.5 and then back again within the space of 2 weeks in late Oct, early Nov.

There may be a cool Kelvin wave from the trade wind surge recently in about the nino 3.4 region. The current WWB would not have impacted nino 3.4 but should be starting to impact 4 about now.

Waiting for US to sort out their govt shutdown so TAO comes back online......

Petros, By most MJO models are your referring to this set or roughly similar?

EC seems to be winning out with its much faster passage through zones 6, but GFS hasn't totally given up on a stall in the Pacific. All models show some weakening of the MJO signal following passage through the Pacific, with GFS showing slight weakening but backtrack through Pacific and most other models showing a fair bit of weakening as it progresses towards Indian.

While GFS is falling into line on MJO, it is maintaining the strength and duration of the forecast WWB, with EC having upgraded partway to meet GFS, but still somewhat weaker, and stronger signs of ending at the 10 day point than GFS even at the 14 day point.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/01/2019 12:52

Yep Mike, that MJO model set. I guess the MJO passage into the western/central Pacific will dictate winds along the equator over next 5 days. Will be interesting to watch.

Re rapid SST spikes/troughs, yep same, ...seems very rapid in the absence of a significant tropical storm system.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/01/2019 14:42

I bet if it was the other way around, ie warming, it would go unquestioned 🙄 anyway Niño 3.4 has majorly cooled. 0.7c in a few weeks is a huge turnaround and removes any doubt re Modiki or a late Niño.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/01/2019 19:26

I have always preferred to rely on the BOM stats for nino 3.4 during more than 10 years of posting on this forum. I ignored the daily stats when it warmed well into moderate el nino status at 1.5. Your claims that if it was the other way around I wouldn't question it is nonsense and insulting.



Nino indexes will be back close to their previous peaks, and possibly higher fairly quickly with the currently occurring WWB.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/01/2019 21:05

Noted both. Agree with both points, ......but tempered by my refusal to acknowledge that a 30 year period 1980 on, is in any way representative of a dataset to create a (eg. 0.5C warm((or cool)) sea surface (esp. below the sea surface) anomaly.

....just my perspective, learning, but definitely a tiro on this subject.
Posted by: RC

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 06/01/2019 12:30

Looks like dry, dry, dry to continue. High still located off New Zealand.

http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/inde...12month&area=qd
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 06/01/2019 14:32

Not dry for everyone, 70mm or almost the whole months average, here yest with more storms forecast this week smile
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 06/01/2019 19:24

Westerly actuals, and lighter easterly anomaly evident on the south edge of the Kelvin Wave generation zone (Pacific Ocean +/- 3 deg of equator from New Guinea to date line) at the moment - due to the cyclones out that way.

If this wind zone was a few degrees higher, might have seen the development of a kelvin wave?
Posted by: Mega

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 07/01/2019 07:05

What happens following the WWB if the Pacific trades pick straight back up again? I ask because models are showing a healthy burst of trades again later this week through the central and eastern Pacific.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 07/01/2019 07:33

$64m question Mega BUT the current SST anomalies in the South Pacific are fascinating tbh - you look at South America and you’d swear a La Niña is breeding, you look at central and eastpac and El Niño.

The other thing is the coldness of the Southern Ocean - can’t recall ever seeing it so below average for the whole ocean from about 50s and below.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 07/01/2019 09:02

Originally Posted By: Mega
What happens following the WWB if the Pacific trades pick straight back up again? I ask because models are showing a healthy burst of trades again later this week through the central and eastern Pacific.


A continuation of the pattern so far. Each WWB has been followed by a return to a near normal trades which has slowed down but not reversed the upward trend. Although we are now in the season when ENSO events typically decay. It does remain to be seen whether the last trade surge caused enough cooling that the current WWB won't reach a new peak.

One thing I note with the MJO recently active through Indian and Australian regions has left relatively cool water near Australia and Coral Sea. This seems to be why the current MJO forecast suggest a rapid and weak passage through Indian and Australian regions which may allow a quicker follow up with the next WWB.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 07/01/2019 10:14

Yep, the MJO zapped across the Pacific Ocean zones in only 5 days! I shouldnt be surprised, as the majority of models forecast this. The warm water in Nino3.4 refuses to snare a tropical convection period, remaining uncoupled as all here have noted.

Pacific EQ SST's are falling slightly across the Nino.4 zone, leaving the hottest water again in AUS GOC and around Darwin. SST from Onslow up to Broome is clearly warming when you compare todays SST actual values with those of the past couple of months.

My guess, more of the same for AUS over next 2 weeks with the X factor being "will the next cyclone be one off Darwin?".

That, along with looking for a resumption of strong trades along the EQ Pacific will be what Petros will be monitoring this week (also another closer study of many of the oceaninc climate report links that several of you folk have kindly provided me over the past 6 weeks).
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 07/01/2019 10:19

If the trades kick back into gear, with that colder water welling near Sth America, I wouldn't be surprised if we head back to Neutral territory, and rapidly. The MJO, as noted, did not persist long enough to cause any major warming IMO.

The next BoM outlook is due tomorrow so we will hear their thoughts for the weeks ahead.
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 07/01/2019 21:06

Could all that cold water help trigger a La Nina?
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 07/01/2019 23:08

Need to see what the subsurface is doing.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 08/01/2019 15:50

We are still ENSO neutral according to BoM.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 08/01/2019 15:55

Originally Posted By: BoM
Tropical Pacific Ocean surface waters have returned to ENSO-neutral temperatures after exceeding El Niño levels in November and early December. The Bureau's ENSO Outlook remains at El Niño ALERT.
While waters at and beneath the surface of the tropical Pacific have been warmer than average since mid-2018, atmospheric indicators of ENSO such as cloudiness, trade winds and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) have not responded and have mostly remained neutral. For an El Niño to become established, the atmosphere needs to reinforce and respond to the warmer waters at the ocean's surface. This reinforcement is what allows the widespread global effects on weather and climate to occur.
The recent cooling of tropical Pacific waters may partly reflect the movement of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), which has recently encouraged stronger trade winds over the tropical Pacific. However, the MJO is moving east, weakening the trade winds once again, which may allow the ocean surface to warm again.
Most models indicate sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific are likely to remain near El Niño levels at least until early autumn 2019. Models typically have less skill when forecasting through autumn compared with other seasons. If sea surface temperatures do maintain their anomalous warmth through summer, it increases the chance of El Niño emerging in 2019.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral. The IOD typically has little influence on Australian climate from December to April.


Interesting subsurface!





Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 08/01/2019 19:12

The current subsurface data wipes out the developing cool pool in the west. If true this would make el nino much more likely the rest of the year. I think this is unlikely, and note that the current data is the output of a model, and is only partly based on observations. Waiting to see when govt shutdown finishes and we can see what TAO shows.

GFS shows a short burst of above average trades in the center later in the week and early next week, flanked by westerlies anomalies both west and east. It only lasts a few days before westerlies return. EC agrees over its forecast period but the return of the westerlies in GFS is beyond the 10 day EC period. EC does set up a large area of low pressure in central Pac which typically leads to westerlies by day 10, even more so than GFS, and current MJO forecasts suggest MJO back in the Pacific fairly quickly.
Posted by: RC

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 08/01/2019 19:47

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber


GFS shows a short burst of above average trades in the center later in the week and early next week, flanked by westerlies anomalies both west and east.


But are they westerlies.

I have been watching and it has been rare to see real westerlies.

A lot of the time recently it has been south westerlies. They have been blowing at an angle to the equator.
Posted by: snowbooby

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 08/01/2019 23:13

Looks like westerlies to me.

Sub-surface cooling mightn't do a lot for present status if processes like entrainment are stymied.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 09/01/2019 09:12

Outflow from Asia has weakened waiting for the next intense Siberian high, so has the westerly flow, not helped by slow moving westward moving low now near India.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 09/01/2019 09:57

After a decent lull the SSL anomaly chart has been updated to Jan 3rd, shows no low level anomaly at Nino.4 (or any area across EQ Pacific atm).

I see SST cooling through Nino.3 into Nino3.4, no tropical cloud W of the dateline and the MJO strong at the moment in phase 8 near dateline - set to go null quickly over the next 4-5 days acc. to all MJO models.

The WWB zone above New Guinea into Nino.4 zone looks to be reducing back to a more normal trade wind regime (anomaly evident over past 5 days or so has weakened significantly imo.

Hottest new equatorial SST on earth is in the GOC atm, waters off Broome continuing to creep up warmer.

So I reckon a tropical storm mooted to form near Darwin during the weekend, per several models, looks a high chance. That would stir things up rainwise for Aus should it develop.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 09/01/2019 10:05

Originally Posted By: Kino
[quote=BoM]


The state of the present is typically based on the anomaly, yet to me, there is no consensus on the anomaly base line time frame, see above, yet for example, CDAS uses 1981-2010.

I bet you could change the SST anomaly by up to a degree by simply selecting either of the two datasets outlined on this post!
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 09/01/2019 10:17

Oops re: "no tropical cloud W of the dateline" in my post #1484798 above that should read E of the dateline, not W.
Posted by: RC

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 09/01/2019 15:08

Originally Posted By: Petros
That would stir things up rainwise for Aus should it develop.


Seems to me the highs are still stagnant off New Zealand stopping the ridge along inland queenland to move.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 10/01/2019 10:37

Yep RC, the hated Quidge. Kills rain in SE Vic too.

Nino3.4 seems to be trending cooler rather than warmer?:



Their is a tongue of cooler actual SST along EQ Pacific into Nino.3 becoming evident in the daily actual SST chart on Tropical Tidbits - right where Windy shows the trades blowing healthily.
Posted by: ashestoashes

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 10/01/2019 15:23

Next few weeks looks to be torrid throughout the continent. SAM looks to be shifting into a negative phase. Highs will be sitting north enough for ridging through inland AUS. Definitely locking a dry and hot period.
Posted by: Funkyseefunkydo

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 10/01/2019 16:13

Don’t like the look of that Ash. Not good for bush fires. If it does go south I feel the affects have a lag of one or 2 weeks.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 10/01/2019 16:31




https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politic...110-p50qk1.html
Posted by: Long Road Home

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 10/01/2019 17:53

The models have the highs about their average position for the forseeable future, seems to be a bit of a shift in patterns toward the end of the latest EC run. One thing I'm watching is the possible TC off WA and how much interaction it will have with the upcoming heat fronts. From experience, the end of Jan/early Feb are potent when it comes to tropical systems interacting with the southern ones. Next few weeks will tell a story.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 11/01/2019 11:00

MJO set to go null over the weekend, going by todays SatIR .....looks like it's already null imo.

So we now wait to see if a tropical system develops near Darwin next week?

Good rain in FNQ from Penny still occurring, nice to see.
Posted by: Funkyseefunkydo

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 11/01/2019 16:16

Looks like the AAO has backed off. Only neg for a few days . Let’s hope this trend continues.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 11/01/2019 18:11

GFS latest run has now "seen" a tropical low to develop off Darwin early next week as per CMC/EC/AccG have been mooting for several days.

For my 2 bob's - would have bet that ex TC Penny's remnants would have stirred up a storm in the GOC before then. Probably explains why Petros never made the Aus rich list.
Posted by: Funkyseefunkydo

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 11/01/2019 20:44

You should probably post less. Petros .
Posted by: adon

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 12/01/2019 16:54

Rude much?
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 12/01/2019 17:40

Tiss OK, I'm sure that most regular posters on here know that I'm only a weather tiro.
Posted by: Funkyseefunkydo

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 12/01/2019 19:09

Is it a weather thread or climate? What happened to the widespread rain and cyclone off Darwin? Does 30 years of data insufficient to 3 months of screenshots of sst’s? If you want people to believe you. Post less. Oh IMO!
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 12/01/2019 19:57

You’re a rude troll and contribute nothing to this tread other than bile, sod off.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 12/01/2019 20:14

Originally Posted By: Petros
Tiss OK, I'm sure that most regular posters on here know that I'm only a weather tiro.


I enjoy your input Petros . Don't stop posting .
Posted by: RC

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 12/01/2019 22:08

Looks like dry weather set to continue for the foreseeable future.

Still no widespread rain events to happen. That being a large vigorous trough system.

No two ways about it that we are still stuck in a multi year dry event.

I am not entirely convinced yet we will see an El Nino officially form, probably stay as a la nada with devastating consequences for the country.

On another US based forum they are all but convinced a big El Nino will form based on the current wind event near PNG. Unfortunately the US government shutdown is restricting data availability to see what the subsurface anomalies are currently doing.
Posted by: Funkyseefunkydo

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 12/01/2019 23:08

Originally Posted By: Kino
You’re a rude troll and contribute nothing to this tread other than bile, sod off.
rude troll? I’ve seen your twitter feed.
Posted by: marakai

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 13/01/2019 01:55

Originally Posted By: Funkyseefunkydo
Is it a weather thread or climate? What happened to the widespread rain and cyclone off Darwin? Does 30 years of data insufficient to 3 months of screenshots of sst’s? If you want people to believe you. Post less. Oh IMO!

And your efforts are so much more important ? Pull your head in you dweeb.
Posted by: Mega

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 13/01/2019 06:02

She's one dry, scorched country atm. Might as well throw away the SAM since it hasn't been representative of Australia's recent climate pattern - in fact, far from it.. ENSO? Nope. Almost identical pattern occurred during weak Nina / cool-neutral. IOD? Nope. Same happened when IOD was previously negative in 2016.
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 13/01/2019 11:17

This drought will break eventually and when it does it will be dramatic.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 13/01/2019 12:58

It gets said, ad nauseum, but Dorothea MacKellar nailed it back in the late 1800’s “...of drought and flooding rains...”. If she can recognise that, not being a climate scientist and not homogenising data, why do we still struggle? We will have drier times and wetter times. It will reset and we will go back to flooding rains. It seems our continent isn’t about fairly stable climates but extremes.
Posted by: GringosRain

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 13/01/2019 14:06

One of the model outputs on CFS 3.4 anomalies have it tanking pretty much from Feb on down to -2.5. I would like to see a few more runs show up like that!
I have never been convinced of an El nino this time round. Looks like westerlies back right off again after this latest round....and there is a heap of cold water south of the equator that could move north and be quite erosive to any subsurface warmth in the far east Pac. Quick switch to big La nina please...
Of course there is more runs pushing for a result the other way and warming to 2.5 but something just doesnt feel right with that side of the ledger for some reason.
Posted by: ashestoashes

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 13/01/2019 14:36

Originally Posted By: Kino
It gets said, ad nauseum, but Dorothea MacKellar nailed it back in the late 1800’s “...of drought and flooding rains...”. If she can recognise that, not being a climate scientist and not homogenising data, why do we still struggle? We will have drier times and wetter times. It will reset and we will go back to flooding rains. It seems our continent isn’t about fairly stable climates but extremes.


That's a quite well understood idea by climate scientists. Although the problem is that we are a land of extremes becoming more extreme. Anyone can understand that higher temperatures will lead to more evaporation, exacerbating a drought. While per 1 degree of warming that's 7% more global precipitable.
Posted by: GringosRain

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 13/01/2019 15:10

And Yet look at the record cold and huge snow depths across the NH. I wish I could find the article that talked about NH getting very cold and SH warming up in Grand Solar minimum. Certainly could get a sense something like that starting to happen as it approaches.... Because we have been having very hot summers and they have been having very cold winters. Whatever is happening its not just Australia being a land of extremes there is extreme ends of the spectrum happening simultaneously on either side of the earth.
Posted by: ashestoashes

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 13/01/2019 15:15

I wonder if there were some very unconventional investors who followed things like the Grand Solar minimum. Put money into things such as wheat futures they would have made an amazing amount of money.
Posted by: GringosRain

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 13/01/2019 15:19

Originally Posted By: ashestoashes
I wonder if there were some very unconventional investors who followed things like the Grand Solar minimum. Put money into things such as wheat futures they would have made an amazing amount of money.


Hell yes...some very smart money on this stuff...
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 13/01/2019 15:30

Originally Posted By: GringosRain
And Yet look at the record cold and huge snow depths across the NH.


Posted by: GringosRain

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 13/01/2019 15:36

https://www.sott.net/article/404782-From...TCqeRXng_VLityU

Its January MH. November isnt Winter. Cherry picking professional you are.
Posted by: Mega

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 13/01/2019 16:12

Yeah, I'm not sure why Mike posted a chart of November?
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 13/01/2019 17:22

Because global data sets for Dec aren't available.
Posted by: pete28

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 13/01/2019 18:29

Originally Posted By: GringosRain
And Yet look at the record cold and huge snow depths across the NH. I wish I could find the article that talked about NH getting very cold and SH warming up in Grand Solar minimum. Certainly could get a sense something like that starting to happen as it approaches.... Because we have been having very hot summers and they have been having very cold winters. Whatever is happening its not just Australia being a land of extremes there is extreme ends of the spectrum happening simultaneously on either side of the earth.


Has it actually been a colder then average December and half of January though for Europe? Or just a few big snow events which most certainly doesn’t always translate into colder then normal temps?
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 13/01/2019 18:55

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Because global data sets for Dec aren't available.


So, again, why bother posting it? It wasn’t relevant, it isn’t recent and it was nothing but a cherry pick. Fancy putting up an autumn chart when they were talking about winter. Disingenuous at the very least.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 13/01/2019 19:04

Originally Posted By: GringosRain
https://www.sott.net/article/404782-From...TCqeRXng_VLityU

Its January MH. November isnt Winter. Cherry picking professional you are.


What did Mike provide on this?
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 13/01/2019 19:11

I provided some facts. Some people don't like them.
Posted by: Mega

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 13/01/2019 19:39

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
I provided some facts. Some people don't like them.


They weren't referring to November though.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 13/01/2019 20:17

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
I provided some facts. Some people don't like them.


With regards to the context, no you didn’t. No one talked about November, because, you see, that’s actually autumn in the Northern Hemisphere.
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 13/01/2019 21:21

A strong La Nina combined with a negative IOD would be a lifesaver for the agricultural sector.
Posted by: GringosRain

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 13/01/2019 23:05

Originally Posted By: pete28
Originally Posted By: GringosRain
And Yet look at the record cold and huge snow depths across the NH. I wish I could find the article that talked about NH getting very cold and SH warming up in Grand Solar minimum. Certainly could get a sense something like that starting to happen as it approaches.... Because we have been having very hot summers and they have been having very cold winters. Whatever is happening its not just Australia being a land of extremes there is extreme ends of the spectrum happening simultaneously on either side of the earth.


Has it actually been a colder then average December and half of January though for Europe? Or just a few big snow events which most certainly doesn’t always translate into colder then normal temps?


Honestly I havent checked charts Pete. Im sure MH will be itching to have his say, so I guess if December figures become available and Mike posts it, then they are warmer than average and if he doesnt they were colder than average.

I watch things other than charts and read a broad spectrum of stuff and the best dots to join are commentary of people on the ground who can give context to the level of cold and snow they are seeing. Figures sometimes just arent the same as human experience. Its like Obs hill being a fair representation of temperatures in Sydney. Most peoples experience would be quite different to what the "figures" suggest. Something as simple as the 9am reset can also skew things so as not to fit the human experience of how a particular day might have been for them. So figures and charts are important, but they are just one tool amongst many for joining dots.
Markets are good place to watch also....because even though they can be manipulated, ultimately they wont lie. So yes, wheat, corn, beef etc can be good indicators of global extremes of all sorts.

That same page has other recent articles on cold such as:
https://www.sott.net/article/404716-Heav...parts-of-Serbia
https://www.sott.net/article/404700-Worl...he-US-and-Japan
https://www.sott.net/article/404603-Ice-...d-Solar-Minimum

Seems the current cold may be related to a SSW and the displacement of the polar vortex. The result is extremes side by side. The video in the last link which i just watched (and have no particular attachment to) makes comments on that about half way through, but the back end of the video is a bit loaded for this thread so I would encourage people not to watch all of it.
Posted by: marakai

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 14/01/2019 03:46

A touch of Heresy for you all

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/01/06/hansens-1988-predictions-redux/

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/01/03/2018-was-the-6th-warmest-year-in-the-past-40-years/

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/01/09/a-sea-surface-temperature-picture-worth-a-few-hundred-words/

http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthrea...cts#Post1471800
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 14/01/2019 08:54

So is the so called grand solar minimum only supposed to have an impact since the current winter? I remember when temps temporarily dropped in 2008, this was blamed on this so called grand solar minimum. There were confident predictions that there would be further cooling due to the so called grand solar minimum, yet every year since then has been warmer. Every year since then whenever there has been cold weather somewhere its blamed on this so called grand solar minimum.

Temp pattern since 2008 for winter only, and against a more recent baseline to get rid of most of the long term trend.

Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 14/01/2019 09:42

Surely there is a significant lag between solar cycles and resultant impact on the earths climate?
Posted by: GringosRain

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 14/01/2019 10:42

yes there will be a lag. GSM isnt even starting till 2022...so whilst we may be seeing some early effects the bulk of it will be in front of us. The grand solar cycles arent just some theory...they happen. And this one will happen too, but who knows if anthropogenic activities will offset its effects. Its certainly possible they could accentuate the extremes you would expect in GSM. I think thats what we are seeing more and more a world of extremes both side by side and in either hemisphere.

I suppose if by 2030 the warming trends are continuing over the whole earth, then I guess we are all doomed come 2055 when the GSM is supposed to finish and the slow return to normal solar activity begins. Most of us will be dead or decrepit by then anyway.

From what I can understand. Grand solar minimums are not really pleasant, and a cold world isnt a very productive world, so personally, I actually dont really want to see its massive disruptive potential to a planet of 7.5 billion people who all need to eat. Maybe if we can get Carbon to level or peak in the next 30-50 years, generations might look back and say lucky we went into that GSM period a bit on the warm side otherwise it could have been a whole lot worse...or maybe it wont make an iota of difference how warm or cold it is now, or how much carbon there is or isnt in the atmosphere.

A world with this many people, and this much technology and this much reliance on the "system" rather than self sufficiency has never lived through an event like this, so I think none of us really has a damn clue whats going to happen.

Some really clever people think this is a good idea on the doorstep of GSM. Nucking Futs. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/geoengineer...HF-3W8mYG8FCsUA
Finally normalising the elephant.
Posted by: adon

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 14/01/2019 19:05

Mike solar cycles last on average 11 years. How long ago was 2008......
Posted by: Delta-T

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 14/01/2019 23:01

"we may be seeing some early effects"

Really? What (global) effects are these? No effect where I live, in fact the opposite. Oops sorry, thats a local weather isn't it.


"so I think none of us really has a damn clue whats going to happen"

I do - sweet fa.The sun has been heading towards a minimum for decades ... effect - sweet fa.


"I suppose if by 2030 the warming trends are continuing over the whole earth, then I guess we are all doomed."
" lucky we went into that GSM period a bit on the warm side otherwise it could have been a whole lot worse"

So lets do nothing, after all doomed is so much easier.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 14/01/2019 23:23

Meanwhile, after that diatribe, most of the US is looking at a savage cold wave (seems there isn’t the hyperbolic version for a cold outbreak as there is a warm one...) with temps expected to drop up to 28 BELOW average. That’s freaking cold.
Posted by: Delta-T

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 15/01/2019 07:48

Originally Posted By: Kino
28 BELOW average


Wheres that?
Posted by: GringosRain

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 15/01/2019 07:55

Originally Posted By: Delta-T
"we may be seeing some early effects"

Really? What (global) effects are these? No effect where I live, in fact the opposite. Oops sorry, thats a local weather isn't it.


"so I think none of us really has a damn clue whats going to happen"

I do - sweet fa.The sun has been heading towards a minimum for decades ... effect - sweet fa.


"I suppose if by 2030 the warming trends are continuing over the whole earth, then I guess we are all doomed."
" lucky we went into that GSM period a bit on the warm side otherwise it could have been a whole lot worse"

So lets do nothing, after all doomed is so much easier.



Maybe in Peachester there are no extremes happening, but a whole lot of places on the globe are experiencing extreme conditions. Volcanic eruptions increasing, earthquakes increasing. The effects I described are the extremes, happening side by side and across the globe. Suck your blue bill and turn Sunrise back on....maybe make a donation to the scientists who are about to "officially" start spraying substances in the sky to dim the sun.
Posted by: CeeBee

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 15/01/2019 08:14

Originally Posted By: Kino
Meanwhile, after that diatribe, most of the US is looking at a savage cold wave (seems there isn’t the hyperbolic version for a cold outbreak as there is a warm one...) with temps expected to drop up to 28 BELOW average. That’s freaking cold.


The current US Forecast destroys the claim that "most of the US is looking at a savage cold wave"



The US is not the whole planet...

Posted by: GringosRain

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 15/01/2019 08:25

strangely enough....looks like extremes side by side. Hmmm
Posted by: Mega

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 15/01/2019 08:32

Originally Posted By: CeeBee
Originally Posted By: Kino
Meanwhile, after that diatribe, most of the US is looking at a savage cold wave (seems there isn’t the hyperbolic version for a cold outbreak as there is a warm one...) with temps expected to drop up to 28 BELOW average. That’s freaking cold.


The current US Forecast destroys the claim that "most of the US is looking at a savage cold wave"


If you look further ahead, it does look bloody cold through most of the US into the weekend and early next week though.
Posted by: GringosRain

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 15/01/2019 08:36

Forecasts only apply to the current day Mega. That claim was"destroyed" remember.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 15/01/2019 10:21

Global Forecast

Cold in US, but more relevant to us is warm in east Asia, and warm throughout the forecast period, implying less push from the north for the monsoon which has been very poor so far this season.
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 15/01/2019 10:28

A failed monsoon usually results in big heatwaves down south as heat that is normally moderated by the monsoon filters down into the southern states.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 15/01/2019 11:16

Temps appear to have topped out in Nino.4, not as many 30C spots on the daily SST chart.



Will be interesting to see where the SOI ends up in a fortnights time as the new cycle commences - not much pressure difference Darwin-Tahiti atm with the MJO null.
Posted by: vorts

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 15/01/2019 11:18

It's actually a high hpa hadley cell moving over the
continent that brings heatwaves and is also is a key driver
for the incoming monsoon troughs.

@Chris Stumer
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 15/01/2019 12:30

Hi Vorts - do you have a diagram to assist in your explanation above?
Posted by: vorts

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 15/01/2019 16:25

The Hadley cell is formed when warm air rises near the equator and comes back down around 30° south latitude. It then flows back northward towards the equator along the surface.

https://imgur.com/Vyon8fi

https://imgur.com/np5DQcq
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 15/01/2019 18:30

Thanks for that Vorts.
Posted by: Mega

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 15/01/2019 20:26

Looking at Europe and Asia, both look very warm (particularly Asia) in comparison to the upcoming cold-snap across the US.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 15/01/2019 21:53

Europe looks frigid? Dunno what charts you’re looking at, and indeed Russia and Asia look warm, which is not unsurprising given the extreme cold in the US and Western Europe.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 15/01/2019 21:59

And Ceebee for the lol of the week - posting a one day chart to attack, as usual. 🙄🙄🙄🙄
Posted by: Mega

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 15/01/2019 22:02

I still don't see anything 'extreme' about the cold in Western Europe though. I am looping https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis...019011506&fh=0. Correct me if I'm wrong. And I did say, "In comparison to the upcoming cold-snap in the US."

I'm seeing a few news articles out there, "Snow expected to cover Scotland this week as temperatures reach below freezing point." Well, doesn't that happen every year?
Posted by: ashestoashes

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 15/01/2019 22:17

There were some extreme lows across Europe recorded with a record low of -23C in northern Greece. Although nitpicking data is not the best representation, so here is an image of the temperature predictions posted in a Bloomberg Article on the 8th of Jan. Note there was a severe dip recorded , which was what people were referring to although the warming cycles around it were also quite notable though.


Disclaimer I know there is no El Nino occuring though, but how similar do the temperature anomalies in Cebee's chart look to the CONUS temperature anomaly for a moderate-strong El Nino.
Posted by: Mega

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 15/01/2019 22:19

Thanks ashes.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 15/01/2019 22:50

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis...19011418&fh=144

This shows plenty of anomalies up to -12 before warming next week.
Posted by: Delta-T

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 16/01/2019 09:19

Ahh, now I see where the -28 came from.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 16/01/2019 10:01

EQ cloud seems to be building around Indonesia again, as you'd expect with most MJO models forecasting a return to the Aus region in coming days. Still mooted to create a tropical storm SW of Indonesia this time around by some models, .....but not close to Aus.

Pacific EQ trades pumping freshly all the way into central Nino.4, interestingly Nino1.2 is trending warmer over the past week.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 16/01/2019 10:52

Passage of MJO into Indian Ocean zones 2/3 seems to correspond quite closely to a renewed surge of trade winds, even though MJO strength is pretty much at minimum. Passage back to West Pacific looks to be very quick, compared to last passage through the La Nina friendly zones which saw a short stall.

Not sure why the warming in the east - would have thought last trade surge would have a cool Kelvin wave in that location.



Still waiting for TAO to come back online to see what exactly happened with the WWB finishing just now, and the subsurface. I noticed from BOM that other ocean temp data seems to have gone missing as well. Compare current analysis with December. The top panel is totally blank for January, but filled with crosses for December marking observation locations. Maybe these charts are always like this for the current month? I don't check them often, but do check from time to time and don't recall noticing this before.
Posted by: Delta-T

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 16/01/2019 15:02

Originally Posted By: GringosRain
Originally Posted By: Delta-T
"we may be seeing some early effects"

Really? What (global) effects are these? No effect where I live, in fact the opposite. Oops sorry, thats a local weather isn't it.


"so I think none of us really has a damn clue whats going to happen"

I do - sweet fa.The sun has been heading towards a minimum for decades ... effect - sweet fa.


"I suppose if by 2030 the warming trends are continuing over the whole earth, then I guess we are all doomed."
" lucky we went into that GSM period a bit on the warm side otherwise it could have been a whole lot worse"

So lets do nothing, after all doomed is so much easier.



Maybe in Peachester there are no extremes happening, but a whole lot of places on the globe are experiencing extreme conditions. Volcanic eruptions increasing, earthquakes increasing. The effects I described are the extremes, happening side by side and across the globe. Suck your blue bill and turn Sunrise back on....maybe make a donation to the scientists who are about to "officially" start spraying substances in the sky to dim the sun.



Whoa there Gringo...

First, you were talking about the so-called GSM and how cold it could get. You didn't mention extremes, volcanoes or earthquakes. In fact you said: "...lucky we went into that GSM", which presumably means you think things might not get too extreme.

I point out to you that although, yes, the insolation we receive from the sun is reducing, that has been happening for decades. At the same time as global temperatures climb more steeply. Corelation? Zero. Sweet fa.

There's your elephant. And what on earth does: "Suck your blue bill and turn Sunrise back on" mean?

Btw Peachester has been extremely hot and extremely dry (compared to the 120 year records at Crohamhurst a few ks away) for the past 4 or 5 years.
Posted by: GringosRain

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 16/01/2019 15:52

Sorry Delta-T we are talking a totally different language.

You have misquoted what I actually wrote, so your context is all wrong.

Volcanos and earthquakes are linked to solar minimum periods so relevant.

Solar insolation is relevant but is not my elephant. I have been dropping breadcrumbs for a while. Some might join the dots. Doesnt matter if not.

Should be blue pill. Sorry if you dont get it. Im only speaking to those that do.

Its extremely hot and dry here for 4 years also. I'm experiencing what is happening just as much as anyone else. My farm is running out of water. I have my eyes wide open. I drink from many cups and not just the coolaid fountain though. All is not what it seems.
Posted by: Mega

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 16/01/2019 18:25

Originally Posted By: GringosRain


Its extremely hot and dry here for 4 years also. I'm experiencing what is happening just as much as anyone else. My farm is running out of water. I have my eyes wide open.


So what measures do you think we need to take in an effort to reduce the effects of drought since...I'm just going to say it...so many farmers out there still refuse to believe that climate change is actually a thing? Do we all just sit back, let the prolonged dry periods take over and not even try to do anything about it? Many of these farmers complain about how dry it is but don't seem to want to push for any solution.
Posted by: RC

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 16/01/2019 18:32

There is no solution while the majority urban people look for a scapegoat to make sure their extremely affluent lifestyle remains unchanged.
Posted by: Delta-T

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 16/01/2019 19:10

Let he who has not been a beneficiary of decades of cheap fossil fuel cast the first stone.
Posted by: Delta-T

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 16/01/2019 19:13

Can those with a better memory of the last warm Tasman blob explain what is causing it. Seems to be coupled with the high or is that my imagination?
Posted by: Mega

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 16/01/2019 19:19

Originally Posted By: Delta-T
Can those with a better memory of the last warm Tasman blob explain what is causing it. Seems to be coupled with the high or is that my imagination?


Definitely coupled with a continuous blocking high. Why, is anyone's guess.
Posted by: Funkyseefunkydo

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 16/01/2019 19:20

Let’s just wait and see what happens. 🙃
Posted by: adon

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 16/01/2019 19:32

Originally Posted By: Mega
Originally Posted By: GringosRain


Its extremely hot and dry here for 4 years also. I'm experiencing what is happening just as much as anyone else. My farm is running out of water. I have my eyes wide open.


So what measures do you think we need to take in an effort to reduce the effects of drought since...I'm just going to say it...so many farmers out there still refuse to believe that climate change is actually a thing? Do we all just sit back, let the prolonged dry periods take over and not even try to do anything about it? Many of these farmers complain about how dry it is but don't seem to want to push for any solution.
The most effective and attainable goal for farmers to do it to adopt regenerative farming techniques which build organic matter, reduce input costs and deliver more resilient soils and therefor better ability to handle extremes. Whether it be extreme dry,
Wet, hot or cold. This will work far better than any tax, solar panel or windmill
Posted by: Delta-T

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 16/01/2019 19:51

Its certainly been driving my climate for the past month.
Posted by: GringosRain

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 16/01/2019 20:26

Mega- People need to have a deep understanding of the dark underbelly of global geopolitics before the forbidden topic can begin to be discussed in full context, and I think nearly everyone doesnt have a broad enough frame of reference in that department.
On that basis, we can never join the dots properly on climate drivers or anything else with the relatively (restricted) primitive tools we have at our disposal and the controlled mainstream narratives constantly fired at us.

This thread is informative and useful on some level, but of course can be frustratingly contained because of what cant be shared. There are obvious factions, but there shouldn’t be.

Its all an illusion, both sides are being played.

Divide and conquer...the world is run on it and the playbook works beautifully for all sorts of things and us dummies fall for it time and time again.

We the people arent the issue. The banks, corporations and fake (corporate) governments are. We need to wake the hell up quick smart and go all yellow vest, because all the solutions to fix our "problems" are available and have been for a long time. They could be deployed tomorrow.

Think MDB fish die-offs, think Adani mine. Are the people really in control here? No. So dont fall for the controlled msm narrative on anything. The corporate governments do what they want...because we arent their true masters. The Australian government are truly one of the worst too, the true bum lickers of the world. Have our land, have our water, have our mineral resources. What a joke.

The climate is changing, in fact many things are changing, but its not necessarily for the reasons the general populace believes.

The world is slowly waking up to these truths though. Aussies are lagging a bit more, but we can wake up and take action too. Its not action against someone for being an AGW believer or non believer or liberal or labour, or democrat or republican, or catholic or muslim. Mere titles used to distract and control. We all need to turn our attention to the puppet masters of the world who sit in shadows; and show them what a revolution really looks like. Not by sharing a meme on facebook, but by rolling the governments and central banks around the world like dominos.

We need a new system.
We need free energy released immediately.
We need true rule of law, not the law of the sea, the law of the land.
We need to demand our civil liberties remain in tact with a right to privacy and not let the totalitarian tiptoe based on false flag events to continue to fool us into cedeing our rights away through silence (silence is assent).
We need to have access to alternative medicines and maintain our rights over our bodies.
We need to maintain our sovereignty and not relinquish our rights to foreign entities, corporations and agreements such as the UN and the TPP.
We need real currency backed by gold, not this fake fiat [censored] we have now....I could go on with pages.
In short we need real foundations for a new system, not this façade of freedom that the sheeple continue to accept. Until people truly wake up, these crust deep debates are a yawn. The whole system is about control of the people. Nothing will change for the better while we are perceived as the enemy by our own governments and whilst we perceive our fellow man that way.
Control of the people requires control of the financial system and the current financial system requires "growth" and profit and growth and profit are pretty much mutually exclusive with true reparations of our environment. Not just carbon, but deforestation, plastic pollution, riparian systems, habitat destruction, ending fake wars, exposing (ending) geoengineering, species extinction...etc etc.

Its not that people and farmers dont want to take action, but they know something is not quite right about the mainstream narrative and they are right. There is more much more going on, we are being blamed for it, but intuitively people know somethings up. It doesnt mean we shouldnt be doing proactive things as communities, we should....just ask more questions, Go deeper and get more answers. The trick is that enough people need to go digging and join the dots at that deeper level. Then they might get truly angry and start to take real action to implement a proper new system. Not an easy road Im sure, but worth it.

I think it needs a revolution Mega, and it might be coming....

Love to the haters in advance. Back to my rock. May the ENSO discussions be blessed with clarity!! lol
Posted by: Delta-T

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 16/01/2019 20:29

Originally Posted By: GringosRain

You have misquoted what I actually wrote


No I cut and pasted it.
And Btw volcanoes and earthquakes are not increasing.
Posted by: GringosRain

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 16/01/2019 21:24

Originally Posted By: Delta-T
Originally Posted By: GringosRain

You have misquoted what I actually wrote


No I cut and pasted it.
And Btw volcanoes and earthquakes are not increasing.


I did not say "lucky we went into that GSM" I said;

"lucky we went into that GSM period a bit on the warm side otherwise it could have been a whole lot worse"

You cant cut a statement in half and say its the same thing.

As for earthquakes and volcanos, I read that mag 6.5+ earthquake were on the up in last couple years and the number of current active volcanos was at around 40 which was high. Off top of my head...reasoning is that as solar output decreases more cosmic rays hit the earths magnetosphere and are directed towards the poles exciting seismic activity. I dont have time to chase down the sources. So I will accept that I was incorrect and that it is not relevant.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 17/01/2019 08:07

Modoki influence is late but intense monsoon. Activity so far has been weak, but GFS 14 days is starting to pick up on strong activity at the end of its forecast.

With the MJO timed to the end of January, and modoki typically enhancing rain through Jan and Feb, but supressing it in Dec/March it might be the one big monsoon burst for the season.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 17/01/2019 15:43

BoM have today issued a special climate statement about the widespread heatwaves in Dec 2018 and Jan 2019.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/statements/scs68.pdf
Posted by: Mega

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 17/01/2019 18:37

From link above:

• An unusual extended period of heatwaves over much of Australia began in early December 2018 and continued into January 2019
• For nationally averaged mean maximum temperature, Australia had its hottest December day on record and second-hottest for any month
• Numerous locations reported their highest daily maximum temperature on record for December or January, with some locations exceeding their previous records by large margins
• It was Australia's warmest December on record
• Every State and Territory was affected by heatwave conditions at some stage during the event
• These widespread heatwaves during December and early January followed an extreme heatwave that affected the tropical Queensland coast during late November 2018
• The current heat event is continuing and this Special Climate Statement will be updated at the end of January"
Posted by: mammatus meestrus

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 17/01/2019 18:55

the dry signal and heat is profound now.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 17/01/2019 19:05

Has got extremely dry down here, with 7 weeks of the hottest part of summer to come, I hope the next MJO plays out like Mike suspects over the next 2 weeks.
Posted by: Mega

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 18/01/2019 00:16

I've just been looking through a few SST anomaly archives of previous years and one thing that stands out to me is how El/La-Nada we've been in since 2015. None since have really stuck. Last year and the year before were wannabe La-Ninas and this year is just a wannabe El-Nino. All of the signatures look very weak in comparison to real Nino/Nina years. Sort of makes you wonder when the next strong phase of Nina/Nino will actually be because maybe then the weather will get interesting again through drought stricken Australia.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 18/01/2019 09:31

For me, it seems that it wont rain in Australia (monsoon areas aside), unless there is a definite La Nina, and probably more importantly, a strongly negative IOD.

Nice to see all models now predicting tropical storm systems to develop over the Nth Tropical Aus regions throughout next week.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 18/01/2019 13:25

The far east has warmed somewhat recently, and the region near the dateline has cooled. Does this mean that the current event is moving away from Modoki status?

I've marked the two peak areas of warming.



Then look at the atmospheric response, with roughly the same areas marked (by eyeball).



It is clear that the western warm area is having a significant impact on the atmosphere, with large increases in convection near to this warm water. In contrast for the eastern warm spot there is little convective response. Perhaps a slight increase in convection, but somewhat west, and away from the equator. If this is a genuine atmospheric response to the far east warming it is dominated by the response further west.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 18/01/2019 14:16

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
The far east has warmed somewhat recently, and the region near the dateline has cooled. Does this mean that the current event is moving away from Modoki status?

I've marked the two peak areas of warming.







All in the eye of the beholder Mike, you see the SST as above, I see it like it actually is:



...which shows Nino.4 warmer than Nino3.4 and the Pacific far cooler in the east. If I was a cloud trying to form over tropical (EQ) Pacific, ....I'd be looking to do it over the West side of Nino.4. Which is typical of neutral ESNO.

Not that I dont agree with you that most of Aus is in a bad drought, ....it's just why is the sticking point.
Posted by: Mega

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 18/01/2019 14:21

I'm still not convinced by it being a Modoki in the first place. Only source I can find that are calling it a Modoki is JAMSTEC and even then, they only say, "Modoki-like." The rest just seem to be calling it a weak-Nino but that's only on the US's scale. On ours, still warm-neutral.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 18/01/2019 14:33

Originally Posted By: Petros


...which shows Nino.4 warmer than Nino3.4 and the Pacific far cooler in the east. If I was a cloud trying to form over tropical (EQ) Pacific, ....I'd be looking to do it over the West side of Nino.4.


Which is what is happening.
Originally Posted By: Petros

Which is typical of neutral ESNO.


Typical of neutral ENSO is clouds having a preference to form over the Australian region, and not a couple thousand kilometers to the east. Clouds forming over nino 4 is typical of modoki.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 18/01/2019 18:47

Disagree, I think that the state of the Pacific, when viewed from SatIR shows a classic ENSO neutral state.

....meanwhile I was lucky enough to score 10mm from storms embedded in this NW'ly sourced moisture band today:



Not a drought fixer for SE Aus, but nice to see this type of atmospherics' this time of the year! ....bring on next week when the MJO is set to arrive smile

This is a classic "model shop" (just using latest model run on WZ) but GFS is seeing this in days to come:




Note that little large scale rain over Aus is evident in this run, ....but look at the "change in potential" coming up for parched Aus in coming days.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 18/01/2019 22:27

How can someone put up a daily SST anomaly chart, then claim it to be something else using monthly averaged charts. Talk about cherries.... THE STONE FRUIT KING!

Mega is right, no one, literally no agency, has declared a Modoki - it is something just made up & keeps being repeating like that broken clock...
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 18/01/2019 22:36

I noticed Ken Kato doesn't support a modoki either. Or any form of ElNino for that matter. Also given Jamstec's original guidelines they may as well call it ElMockery or perhaps ElMuddy. The goal posts keep shifting to suit any lack of clear rationale.

.... and is the Tasman high the issue or the Indian Ocean high that also refuses to budge whilst dumping dry air over WA? There is no incentive for change if it isn't forcing systems east to move on. Those heatwaves are coming from WA (Indian ocean), not the pacific.

Warm neutral.
Posted by: Mega

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 19/01/2019 00:20

Originally Posted By: ColdFront
I noticed Ken Kato doesn't support a modoki either. Or any form of ElNino for that matter. Also given Jamstec's original guidelines they may as well call it ElMockery or perhaps ElMuddy. The goal posts keep shifting to suit any lack of clear rationale.

.... and is the Tasman high the issue or the Indian Ocean high that also refuses to budge whilst dumping dry air over WA? There is no incentive for change if it isn't forcing systems east to move on. Those heatwaves are coming from WA (Indian ocean), not the pacific.

Warm neutral.


Well that dry air wasn't there the last two or three wet seasons and the Tasman Sea high was still stuck in place.
Posted by: Funkyseefunkydo

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 19/01/2019 00:23

Posted by: Mega

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 19/01/2019 01:35

Originally Posted By: Mega
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
I noticed Ken Kato doesn't support a modoki either. Or any form of ElNino for that matter. Also given Jamstec's original guidelines they may as well call it ElMockery or perhaps ElMuddy. The goal posts keep shifting to suit any lack of clear rationale.

.... and is the Tasman high the issue or the Indian Ocean high that also refuses to budge whilst dumping dry air over WA? There is no incentive for change if it isn't forcing systems east to move on. Those heatwaves are coming from WA (Indian ocean), not the pacific.

Warm neutral.


Well that dry air wasn't there the last two or three wet seasons and the Tasman Sea high was still stuck in place.


I probably came off a bit blunt. I agree the Indian Ocean isn't helping but I don't think it's solely the reason that our highs are staying so far north for so long since it's happened in the past even with a warm Indian Ocean. Good news is GFS shows the subtropical ridge returning to more 'normal' latitudes in its extended run. Let's hope it sticks.
Posted by: SEAN888

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 19/01/2019 01:53

Originally Posted By: GringosRain
Mega- People need to have a deep understanding of the dark underbelly of global geopolitics before the forbidden topic can begin to be discussed in full context, and I think nearly everyone doesnt have a broad enough frame of reference in that department.
On that basis, we can never join the dots properly on climate drivers or anything else with the relatively (restricted) primitive tools we have at our disposal and the controlled mainstream narratives constantly fired at us.

This thread is informative and useful on some level, but of course can be frustratingly contained because of what cant be shared. There are obvious factions, but there shouldn’t be.

Its all an illusion, both sides are being played.

Divide and conquer...the world is run on it and the playbook works beautifully for all sorts of things and us dummies fall for it time and time again.

We the people arent the issue. The banks, corporations and fake (corporate) governments are. We need to wake the hell up quick smart and go all yellow vest, because all the solutions to fix our "problems" are available and have been for a long time. They could be deployed tomorrow.

Think MDB fish die-offs, think Adani mine. Are the people really in control here? No. So dont fall for the controlled msm narrative on anything. The corporate governments do what they want...because we arent their true masters. The Australian government are truly one of the worst too, the true bum lickers of the world. Have our land, have our water, have our mineral resources. What a joke.

The climate is changing, in fact many things are changing, but its not necessarily for the reasons the general populace believes.

The world is slowly waking up to these truths though. Aussies are lagging a bit more, but we can wake up and take action too. Its not action against someone for being an AGW believer or non believer or liberal or labour, or democrat or republican, or catholic or muslim. Mere titles used to distract and control. We all need to turn our attention to the puppet masters of the world who sit in shadows; and show them what a revolution really looks like. Not by sharing a meme on facebook, but by rolling the governments and central banks around the world like dominos.

We need a new system.
We need free energy released immediately.
We need true rule of law, not the law of the sea, the law of the land.
We need to demand our civil liberties remain in tact with a right to privacy and not let the totalitarian tiptoe based on false flag events to continue to fool us into cedeing our rights away through silence (silence is assent).
We need to have access to alternative medicines and maintain our rights over our bodies.
We need to maintain our sovereignty and not relinquish our rights to foreign entities, corporations and agreements such as the UN and the TPP.
We need real currency backed by gold, not this fake fiat [censored] we have now....I could go on with pages.
In short we need real foundations for a new system, not this façade of freedom that the sheeple continue to accept. Until people truly wake up, these crust deep debates are a yawn. The whole system is about control of the people. Nothing will change for the better while we are perceived as the enemy by our own governments and whilst we perceive our fellow man that way.
Control of the people requires control of the financial system and the current financial system requires "growth" and profit and growth and profit are pretty much mutually exclusive with true reparations of our environment. Not just carbon, but deforestation, plastic pollution, riparian systems, habitat destruction, ending fake wars, exposing (ending) geoengineering, species extinction...etc etc.

Its not that people and farmers dont want to take action, but they know something is not quite right about the mainstream narrative and they are right. There is more much more going on, we are being blamed for it, but intuitively people know somethings up. It doesnt mean we shouldnt be doing proactive things as communities, we should....just ask more questions, Go deeper and get more answers. The trick is that enough people need to go digging and join the dots at that deeper level. Then they might get truly angry and start to take real action to implement a proper new system. Not an easy road Im sure, but worth it.

I think it needs a revolution Mega, and it might be coming....

Love to the haters in advance. Back to my rock. May the ENSO discussions be blessed with clarity!! lol


What a bunch of psychobabble.

The 'narrative' is simple: adding billions and billions of tonnes of Co2 into the atmosphere isn't inert. It increases thermal gain. There is no global conspiracy other than to assert climate change is a falsehood.

People in this thread can tout their charts and conspiracy talk all they want, but the world is getting warmer. The stats prove it beyond a doubt, from rising sea levels to retreating glaciers, to the fact above average years are clustering (trends, NOT anomalies).

Freezing cold periods in the US mean nothing when the reason behind such snaps are a break down in the polar vortex caused by above average temperatures in the arctic.

For a bunch of weather nerds, there's a very poor understanding of atmospherics in this thread. I mean, do you people even know how the atmosphere works? Why Earth's global average is 15c instead of -15c?

Sun spots, auras, xrays, volcanoes... the bs people will stoop to in order to evade any form of accountability or responsibility.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 19/01/2019 07:07

What part of BANNED do you not understand? Seriously? And your first line is why it is banned.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 19/01/2019 07:17

TAO has updated, despite the government shutdown. Do we owe thanks to some long suffering govt employee/scientist going in to reset the server switch or whatever despite going without pay?

Surface confirms that the recent WWB was quite significant.



It also shows a typical modoki pattern for the new year with steady cooling in the east and warmth maintained near the dateline. Westerly anomalies prevail to the west of the dateline warm pool, and easterly anomalies prevail to the east of the dateline warm pool, despite models showing substantial westerly anomalies further east. Classic modoki atmospheric response. Compare to 2002/2003



Subsurface confirms a substantial warm kelvin wave has been generated by the recent WWB.

Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 19/01/2019 08:07

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
There’s no doubt whatsoever that an index is really handy in terms of removing subjectivity but as mentioned in my previous post, it’s also vital to consider the context of the bigger picture it’s used in.
For example, CAPE is handy for estimating instability but as we all know, there’s also many instances where something like high surface-based CAPE values don’t reflect the true instability of the atmosphere due to the assumption that all parcels are rising from the surface and a big cap is preventing storms from forming, high positive SOI values that may only be high because of local weather systems rather than a true La Niña phase that would otherwise produce rainy cool weather, or very warm NIÑO 3 and 3.4 SST anomalies that don’t reflect a full blown El Niño because the atmosphere isn’t coupling with the ocean.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 19/01/2019 08:41

And my response to Ken

Quote:
As far as I can tell the big picture is that SSTs resemble modoki el nino, rainfall patterns in Australia resemble modoki el nino, and atmospheric impacts on cloudiness and trade winds resemble el nino modoki (perhaps weaker than a typical full blown el nino, but definitely still there).
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 19/01/2019 08:51

Originally Posted By: Kino
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
There’s no doubt whatsoever that an index is really handy in terms of removing subjectivity but as mentioned in my previous post, it’s also vital to consider the context of the bigger picture it’s used in.
For example, CAPE is handy for estimating instability but as we all know, there’s also many instances where something like high surface-based CAPE values don’t reflect the true instability of the atmosphere due to the assumption that all parcels are rising from the surface and a big cap is preventing storms from forming, high positive SOI values that may only be high because of local weather systems rather than a true La Niña phase that would otherwise produce rainy cool weather, or very warm NIÑO 3 and 3.4 SST anomalies that don’t reflect a full blown El Niño because the atmosphere isn’t coupling with the ocean.


...and he's right.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 19/01/2019 10:21

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
And my response to Ken

Quote:
As far as I can tell the big picture is that SSTs resemble modoki el nino, rainfall patterns in Australia resemble modoki el nino, and atmospheric impacts on cloudiness and trade winds resemble el nino modoki (perhaps weaker than a typical full blown el nino, but definitely still there).


Which of course he said is not true, supported by the BoM and every single other credible agency.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 19/01/2019 14:15

Can you find one quote from any agency stating this is not an el nino modoki? Evidently Jamstec has said it is Modoki like, although I haven't confirmed that. So one agency in favour, and none against?
Posted by: KevD

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 19/01/2019 14:46

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Can you find one quote from any agency stating this is not an el nino modoki? Evidently Jamstec has said it is Modoki like, although I haven't confirmed that. So one agency in favour, and none against?

This is the same as saying "Please find one quote from an agency stating that there is no la nina right now" - just because you can't find an agency stating something is not happening does not mean that it automatically is.
FWIW the latest WWB seems to have had some impact and models are now responding to it - though one WWB does make an el nino or anything similar...what I've really learnt this year is that (1) we have little clue (2) the environment does what it wants regardless (3) and regardless of whatever pattern we are in, we can get a whole heap of heat and dry across much of Aus (4) the quidge is designed to test our ability to stay sane / passionate about the weather regardless of what nature throws at us...
Posted by: RandomGuy

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 19/01/2019 14:50

Just to list a few

1) BOM - ENSO Neutral (next update in a few days)
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

2) CPC - ENSO Neutral (updated 14 Jan)
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a...s-fcsts-web.pdf

3) IRI - ENSO Neutral (updated Jan 10)
https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/

4) ASMC - ENSO Neutral (updated last in DEC)
http://asmc.asean.org/asmc-el-nino/

As far as I can tell the only person (not agency) pushing an El Nino of any sort is Mike Hauber.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 19/01/2019 15:04

Originally Posted By: KevD
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Can you find one quote from any agency stating this is not an el nino modoki? Evidently Jamstec has said it is Modoki like, although I haven't confirmed that. So one agency in favour, and none against?

This is the same as saying "Please find one quote from an agency stating that there is no la nina right now" - just because you can't find an agency stating something is not happening does not mean that it automatically is.
FWIW the latest WWB seems to have had some impact and models are now responding to it - though one WWB does make an el nino or anything similar...what I've really learnt this year is that (1) we have little clue (2) the environment does what it wants regardless (3) and regardless of whatever pattern we are in, we can get a whole heap of heat and dry across much of Aus (4) the quidge is designed to test our ability to stay sane / passionate about the weather regardless of what nature throws at us...


👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 19/01/2019 15:15

Originally Posted By: RandomGuy
Just to list a few

1) BOM - ENSO Neutral (next update in a few days)
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

2) CPC - ENSO Neutral (updated 14 Jan)
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a...s-fcsts-web.pdf

3) IRI - ENSO Neutral (updated Jan 10)
https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/

4) ASMC - ENSO Neutral (updated last in DEC)
http://asmc.asean.org/asmc-el-nino/

As far as I can tell the only person (not agency) pushing an El Nino of any sort is Mike Hauber.


🌟🌟🌟

Seems a pretty strong list... bye bye El Nada Modinone
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 19/01/2019 15:56

Originally Posted By: KevD
This is the same as saying "Please find one quote from an agency stating that there is no la nina right now" -


Yes, it is ridiculous .
Posted by: vorts

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 19/01/2019 17:28

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/elnino/outlook.html

Usually @ the forefront with enso pacific analysis
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 19/01/2019 17:43

Talk about a conflicted outlook, every indicator says average except normal except some SST’s and yet they run with an El Niño?

Quote:
In December 2018, the NINO.3 SST was above normal with a deviation of +1.0°C. The 5-month running mean value of the NINO.3 SST deviation for October was +0.7°C (Table and Fig.3). SSTs in December were above normal in most of the equatorial Pacific (Fig.4 and Fig.6). Subsurface temperatures were also above normal in most of the equatorial Pacific (Fig.5 and Fig.7). Atmospheric convective activity near the date line over the equatorial Pacific and easterly winds in the lower troposphere (trade winds) over the central equatorial Pacific were near normal (Fig.8, Fig.9). The trade winds over the western equatorial Pacific, however, were below normal in the second half of December (Fig.10). Taking into consideration the factors mentioned above, El Niño conditions are considered to have persisted in the equatorial Pacific.

The subsurface warm waters maintained warmer-than-normal SST conditions in the eastern equatorial Pacific in December, and such condition is expected to continue. JMA's El Niño prediction model suggests that the NINO.3 SST will be above normal from boreal winter to spring (Fig.11). In conclusion, El Niño conditions are likely (80%) to continue until boreal spring (Fig.1 and Fig.2).

[Western Pacific and Indian Ocean]

The area-averaged SST in the tropical western Pacific (NINO.WEST) region was below normal in December (Fig.3). The value is likely to be below normal or near normal from boreal winter to spring (Fig.12).

The area-averaged SST in the tropical Indian Ocean (IOBW) region was near normal in December (Fig.3). The value is likely to be above normal or near normal from boreal winter to spring (Fig.13).
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 19/01/2019 18:33

In other words no agencies say it is not modoki. Unless you are someone who doesn't know that el ninos and modoki are different.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 19/01/2019 19:20

Surely you can’t be serious 😵😵😵
Posted by: Mega

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 19/01/2019 19:53

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
In other words no agencies say it is not modoki. Unless you are someone who doesn't know that el ninos and modoki are different.


If it was a Modoki, wouldn't at least one of those agencies say it is? Why wouldn't they?
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 19/01/2019 20:01

BOM criteria for el nino are based on nino 3 and nino 3.4 indexes. Modoki is defined as the Principal Component 2 in an Empirical Orthogonal Function Analysis, or PC2. This is a math thing and basically represents the standard SST pattern of a perfect modoki event. The correlation between PC2 and nino 3 is -0.09, and between PC2 and nino 3.4 is 0.19.

BOM criteria for an el nino are clearly not designed to take reflect modoki el nino, so when BOM say 'not el nino' this has nothing to do with whether modoki el nino exists or not.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 19/01/2019 20:12

Originally Posted By: Mega


If it was a Modoki, wouldn't at least one of those agencies say it is? Why wouldn't they?


I'd expect so too.

But the index, reflecting SST conditions only, clearly says Modoki, and the agencies aren't saying anything clearly against. Maybe they've considered the possibility and rejected it for some atmospheric reason, but as far as I can tell atmospheric patterns are very similar to what is expected in Modoki. Perhaps the atmospheric indicators are below some threshold, which would make the current situation a warm neutral modoki. But I haven't found any such threshold anywhere, so unless something clear emerges somewhere it seems the only reasonable conclusion is to judge the event as a full el nino modoki.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 19/01/2019 20:20

Originally Posted By: Mike
But I haven't found any such threshold anywhere, so unless something clear emerges somewhere it seems the only reasonable conclusion is to judge the event as a full el nino modoki.


So, the abscence of the something, logic usually dictates that it doesn’t exist, hence why it isn’t mentioned or referred too. But in your view, the abscence of something means it does exist? That’s simply ridiculous. Not only are you now making up an ENSO condition but you’re rewriting basic logic.

No Mike, the abscence of something doesn’t not mean that it exists.

The reason NO agency mentions it is because it doesn’t exist. Pretty simple and pretty clear.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 19/01/2019 21:03

You are missing one very important part of my logic.

The modoki index clearly shows a modoki exists

The absence I refer to is simply the absence of any evidence to the contrary.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 19/01/2019 21:08

The index that no agency uses in its assessment of ENSO? That one? Yeah. Not missing anything. Every agency have advised that there is no coupling. That’s what you need, not some index.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 19/01/2019 21:36

Jamstec is an agency and I'm sure they use the index they publish when assessing whether a modoki or not exists.

I am aware of two agencies that have described no coupling - BOM and NCEP. Are you aware of any others that have made this claim? Both of them use nino 3.4 and/or nino 3 to assess ENSO, therefore they are not assessing modoki.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 19/01/2019 22:23

Google News with a search for Modoki reveals what various meteologists have said about modoki state recently

Quote:
The reason may be that the Modoki El Nino is barely a Modoki and the El Nino in general has been not far from neutral and is showing signs of weakening.

Regardless of the Modoki Index, there is basin-wide anomalous warmth in most of the Pacific Ocean.

link - counted as yes

Quote:
This, in a low-solar, El Nino Modoki winter

link counted as yes

Quote:
Kirtek added that this year’s winter weather will be dominated by a Modoki El Niño.

link not counted, not clear whether modoki is currently in place or is not in place but will form by winter

Quote:
Winter wild card? El Niño “Modoki”event possible

link not counted, dated Oct 19 2018

Quote:
Winter forecast updates take chilly, stormy turns as a ‘Modoki El Niño’ comes into play

link counted as yes.

Quote:
giving us what’s called a Modoki El Niño.

Halpert says that did not happen this year, but there has been an unusual warming across the entire El Niño sector from west to east.

link counted as no

Interestingly enough this and the last statement are both from climate forecasters at the climate prediction center from NOAA and are associated with the US winter outlook.

Quote:
This this winter to spring will feature El Nino Modoki, which is similar but different than a typical El Nino.

link From August, not counted

Quote:
In this case, the warming might be more in the central Pacific, south of Hawaii, rather than in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Known as Modoki El Niños


link Counted as maybe no (We are not in el nino yet, but we may get an el nino and when it arrives it might be modoki, implying not full modoki, but closer to modoki than classical.

Quote:
The Litoral region of the country is being affected by the phenomenon of "El Niño Modoki"

google translated
link counted as yes

Quote:
It is only weak El Nino Modoki

link counted as yes


Five forecasters believe we are currently experiencing modoki conditions. One definitely doesn't, and another one that does not because we are not yet in el nino, but if el nino does arrive it will probably be modoki.

There is a possible selection bias where forecasters who believe we are in modoki may be more likely to mention that we are in modoki than those who don't.

Still the true picture is clearly quite different from the claim that all agencies are claiming we are not in modoki.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 19/01/2019 22:42

Again you mislead. They’re not forecasters at all. They’re scientists with an opinion.

These are the official forecasters, in case you missed:

Quote:
Just to list a few

1) BOM - ENSO Neutral (next update in a few days)
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

2) CPC - ENSO Neutral (updated 14 Jan)
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a...s-fcsts-web.pdf

3) IRI - ENSO Neutral (updated Jan 10)
https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/

4) ASMC - ENSO Neutral (updated last in DEC)
http://asmc.asean.org/asmc-el-nino/

As far as I can tell the only person (not agency) pushing an El Nino of any sort is Mike Hauber.


CASE. CLOSED. 0/2. Next!
Posted by: marakai

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 20/01/2019 02:45

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Google News with a search for Modoki reveals what various meteologists have said about modoki state recently

Quote:
The reason may be that the Modoki El Nino is barely a Modoki and the El Nino in general has been not far from neutral and is showing signs of weakening.

Regardless of the Modoki Index, there is basin-wide anomalous warmth in most of the Pacific Ocean.

link - counted as yes

Quote:
This, in a low-solar, El Nino Modoki winter

link counted as yes

Quote:
Kirtek added that this year’s winter weather will be dominated by a Modoki El Niño.

link not counted, not clear whether modoki is currently in place or is not in place but will form by winter

Quote:
Winter wild card? El Niño “Modoki”event possible

link not counted, dated Oct 19 2018

Quote:
Winter forecast updates take chilly, stormy turns as a ‘Modoki El Niño’ comes into play

link counted as yes.

Quote:
giving us what’s called a Modoki El Niño.

Halpert says that did not happen this year, but there has been an unusual warming across the entire El Niño sector from west to east.

link counted as no

Interestingly enough this and the last statement are both from climate forecasters at the climate prediction center from NOAA and are associated with the US winter outlook.

Quote:
This this winter to spring will feature El Nino Modoki, which is similar but different than a typical El Nino.

link From August, not counted

Quote:
In this case, the warming might be more in the central Pacific, south of Hawaii, rather than in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Known as Modoki El Niños


link Counted as maybe no (We are not in el nino yet, but we may get an el nino and when it arrives it might be modoki, implying not full modoki, but closer to modoki than classical.

Quote:
The Litoral region of the country is being affected by the phenomenon of "El Niño Modoki"

google translated
link counted as yes

Quote:
It is only weak El Nino Modoki

link counted as yes


Five forecasters believe we are currently experiencing modoki conditions. One definitely doesn't, and another one that does not because we are not yet in el nino, but if el nino does arrive it will probably be modoki.

There is a possible selection bias where forecasters who believe we are in modoki may be more likely to mention that we are in modoki than those who don't.

Still the true picture is clearly quite different from the claim that all agencies are claiming we are not in modoki.




Geeze Mike you really are stretching things with all this and grasping at any and every thing you can to prove a point that really doesn't exist on a scientific level at all.
Opinions ain't science nor reality.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 20/01/2019 07:31

Originally Posted By: Kino
Again you mislead. They’re not forecasters at all. They’re scientists with an opinion.


You accuse me of misleading when you invent a claim as preposterous of this out of thin air?

For the forecasters who said it was modoki:

Quote:
Mellish is THE ONLY meteorologist in Atlanta to be certified by BOTH the AMS and the NWA, National Weather Association. Kirk has more than 30 years of experience in weather forecasting and has won dozens of awards for forecast accuracy and broadcasting excellence.

link

Quote:

With 14 years of on-air forecasting experience, Chad Evans returns as WLFI's chief meteorologist after working in the role early 2009 to mid-2015.

link


Quote:
Tony Wood has been writing about weather and the atmosphere for The Inquirer for 26 years.


Likely journalists, but he quotes:

Quote:
"We don't use that term a whole lot," Stephen Baxter, a researcher and seasonal forecaster at the government's Climate Prediction Center, said of Modoki, "but they're not rare."


Not just a weather forecaster, but a climate forecaster

Quote:
Mauricio Saldívar began working in 1986 as broadcast meteorologist in radio, Tv and newspapers after his studies in meteorology at Universidad de Buenos Aires.

He worked at Argentinean National Weather Service for 20 years (1986 to 2005).

He specialized and was in charge of teams in Aeronautical Meteorology, Antarctic Meteorology, Remote Sensing (Radar and Satellite) and Public Weather Services.


link

Fifth yes is from Chad Evens, same source as first yes, so four forecasters not 5.

Quote:

These are the official forecasters, in case you missed:

Just to list a few

1) BOM - ENSO Neutral (next update in a few days)
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

2) CPC - ENSO Neutral (updated 14 Jan)
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a...s-fcsts-web.pdf

3) IRI - ENSO Neutral (updated Jan 10)
https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/

4) ASMC - ENSO Neutral (updated last in DEC)
http://asmc.asean.org/asmc-el-nino/

As far as I can tell the only person (not agency) pushing an El Nino of any sort is Mike Hauber.


CASE. CLOSED. 0/2. Next! [/quote]

All these agencies use nino 3 or nino 3.4 to assess ENSO. The correlation of modoki and nino 3.4 is only 0.19, and nino 3 is 0.09. Therefore none of these agencies are assessing modoki. One of the forecasters who stated that we are in a modoki episode works for one of these agencies (although so does one of the forecasters who said we are not in modoki).
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 20/01/2019 10:14

Silly me, I should have been more careful - I meant (clearly) FORECASTING AGENCIES.

Again, everything you posted are opinions of scientists. Not Forecasting Agencies who have sunk the Modoki boat quicker than Clive Palmers political career.
Posted by: vorts

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 20/01/2019 10:45

[img]https://i.imgur.com/NjzPtUf.png?1[/img]
[img]https://i.imgur.com/vWOrDR6.png?1[/img]




[img]https://i.imgur.com/pfkHl8d.jpg?1[/img]
Heres a guide mike.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 20/01/2019 12:33

Mike, I'd be happy to label the prevailing conditions that caused this present drought event a "Hauber Nino" - all you need to do is create the metrics around this newly identified phenomena.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 20/01/2019 15:27

Originally Posted By: vorts


Whats the source of that modoki data?
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 20/01/2019 15:35

Originally Posted By: Kino
Silly me, I should have been more careful - I meant (clearly) FORECASTING AGENCIES.

Again, everything you posted are opinions of scientists. Not Forecasting Agencies who have sunk the Modoki boat quicker than Clive Palmers political career.


They are not scientists, they are weather forecasters. Some of whom work for forecasting agencies. And if they were scientists I'd way their opinion even higher.

The agencies you have quoted consider nino indexes with a poor correlation with modoki when assessing ENSO. They are not assessing modoki.

The only agency that specifically assesses modoki that I know of it linkJamstec, and they state clearly that modoki is happening (and that canonical is also happening).

Quote:
As predicted earlier, El Niño/El Niño Modoki-like state has actually emerged in October. This El Niño looks a mixture of Modoki-type and canonical-type and its impact may be different from that of the canonical El Niño.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 20/01/2019 15:45

Arguments for Modoki:

Rainfall in Australia was dry during December in the regions that are normally dry during modoki, and wet in the regions that are normally dry during canonical. Judging by month to date and current forecasts there is a high chance that rainfall will switch to above average for the Modoki impacted region, just as expected in a modoki.

Trade winds to the west of the dateline warm pool have shown consistent westerly anomalies while trade winds to the east of the dateline warm pool have shown consistent easterly anomalies, as expected in Modoki. In a classic el nino westerly anomalies usually extend to the east of the dateline.

Cloudiness anomalies have been just a bit to the west of the dateline and have not penetrated further east. In a classic el nino cloudiness anomalies will spread further east.

The modoki index published by Jamstec has been clearly above modoki threshold for several months, and Jamstec have stated that a modoki exists, although mixed with a canonical influence.

Arguments against.

Some agencies which assess ENSO conditions using indexes suited to canonical but not modoki el nino have declared no el nino exists.

Waters are warmer than average in the far east. Even though waters have been warmer than average in the majority of past modoki events.

Ken Kato (BOM forecaster) doesn't think we have modoki.

Lots of members of this thread don't think we have modoki.

SOI is in neutral range. I can't see how this favors canonical over modoki, but might imply that the current situation should be labelled 'modoki warm neutral'

There is no coupling. Stated by multiple agencies. Not sure why lack of coupling would make this more likely a canonical type event rather than a modoki. Might be an argument for 'modoki warm neutral'.

Did I miss anything?

Posted by: Delta-T

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 20/01/2019 15:59

I see Mike Hauber submitting post after post full of interesting and yes, sometimes even contraversial information and opinions. I also see one or two others who, post after post, almost exclusively attack everything he posts.

My question then is: Kino (apart from being a proxy climate change tiff) why are Mike's posts sooo important to you?

If you say they aren't important, then how about ignoring him and posting something interesting yourself instead of this serial griping.

If they are important to you why have you designated yourself Mike's personal scrutinizer? Nothing better to do?
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 20/01/2019 16:06

Yeah because Mike should be able to post up what is simply opinion and go unchecked when it flies in the face of convention.

Why are Kino's posts so important to you? Nothing better to do?
Posted by: Delta-T

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 20/01/2019 17:02

Um no. "flies in the face of convention" is not even close to being accurate.
Mike's opinions about Modoki, while not held universally, seem to be held quite widely. They (Mike's opinions about Modoki) don't even seem that contraversial to me. Maybe Petros is right in that this particular species of ENSO should be called a Hauber Nino - a sub-species of Modoki.

Speaking of which,

The Japanese to English translations and meanings for modoki (もどき) include '-like,pseudo-,mock ...,imitation ...,in the style of ...'.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 20/01/2019 17:12

Yeah I am well aware of the meaning. You're not the only one with access to Google. The parameters of Modoki have been hijacked and not only by Mike and indeed by jamstec when you read their own definition. When it was originally recognised there was a criteria for cooler than average ocean temps either side of the warm pool in the central pacific. Now it seems a 0.2-0.3 degs difference ( even when all areas are above average ) will suffice. Particularly if it is to save face. ElNonsense.
Posted by: Delta-T

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 20/01/2019 17:18

Thats fine and I respect your opinion, but the knee-jerk sneering is tiresome and unnecessary.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 20/01/2019 17:21

But that goes both ways mate. You only see one side though for some reason.
Posted by: Delta-T

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 20/01/2019 17:25

I don't see Mike sneering.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 20/01/2019 18:13

Tropical Aus is setting up for an interesting period going by 1) MJO models 2) current forecast models, as next week progresses.

Forecast models disagree on tropical storm locations, but on balance, they all forecast bucketloads of (some moot multiple) tropical storm system possibilities.

Maybe this will be the anchor point for the "proper" commencement of the Aus tropical wet season?
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 20/01/2019 18:21

Originally Posted By: Petros
Tropical Aus is setting up for an interesting period going by 1) MJO models 2) current forecast models, as next week progresses.

Forecast models disagree on tropical storm locations, but on balance, they all forecast bucketloads of (some moot multiple) tropical storm system possibilities.

Maybe this will be the anchor point for the "proper" commencement of the Aus tropical wet season?



Interesting tussle re Tropical Low either side of the Cape also. EC and CMC wanting a CS trip and GFS in the GoC.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 20/01/2019 18:22

Originally Posted By: Petros
Mike, I'd be happy to label the prevailing conditions that caused this present drought event a "Hauber Nino" - all you need to do is create the metrics around this newly identified phenomena.



So do I write you out of the "Hauber Nino" credit roll and put this drought down to a "Canonical el nino" (parameters yet to be published)?

There is so many el nino-like weather patterns out there, ....it's a miracle that a drop of rain can ever make ground in Aus wink .
Posted by: Mega

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 20/01/2019 18:35

I'm really clutching but extended GFS and the very last day of EC's run are showing signs of a much healthier ridge setting up as the Tasman Sea high finally retreats to more 'normal' latitudes for summer. It's a long shot but worth watching since both EC and GFS are hinting at it. If it was just one model then I wouldn't have bothered mentioning it. Regardless, it doesn't look like happening before the month is out so I'd imagine that January '19 will go down as one of the driest January's on record for a big swab of QLD and northern NSW.
Posted by: Mega

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 20/01/2019 18:45

Januaries

edit time strikes again.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 20/01/2019 19:43

Bundaberg has had 3.2mm for January to date. Driest on record (according to WZ) was 1.2mm in 2003 so yeah, it's pretty dry. January is also Bundy's wettest month with an average around 170mm . As ElNino loses it's grip in Summer it is obvious something much bigger is at play. Particularly as ElNino didn't emerge anyway in 2018.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 20/01/2019 20:10



Decent sized short term rise in daily nino 3.4. Nino 3.4 is probably dropping and its probably just the daily being erratic yet again.
Posted by: LonnyDave

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 20/01/2019 20:25

Just a few bits and pieces from Tassie. Hobart has set the record for most consecutive days of maxima above 20 degrees (28 days and ongoing). Launceston max temps for the next five days are 33, 33, 27, 28, 32. Jan average in Launceston is 24.5 this January so far its 27.0 and we will smash the record of 26.9 for sure. Tomorrow we will have our fifth day over 30 in Launceston for 2019 meaning we have hit the annual average already. Devonport went within a degree of its all time temperature record today with a temp of 32.2. Devonport could get three consecutive days over 30. It averages 1 30 degree every five years! Oh yeah in Launceston we have had only 3.4 mm and Hobart 0.2mm. As I look out the window there is smoke haze from the 50 fires started by hundreds of dry lightning strikes a week ago. Its nearly 30 degrees at sundown. Boy oh boy something is going on.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 20/01/2019 20:29

Originally Posted By: LonnyDave
Boy oh boy something is going on.


The fact that you guys are surrounded by such warm anomalies is helping those warmer air temps no doubt.

Posted by: Delta-T

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 20/01/2019 20:51

The warm blob is no doubt a factor but your hand drawn circle doesn't quite make it to Port Augusta let alone Marble Bar, I wonder whats going on up there? Rhetorical question.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 20/01/2019 21:15

Originally Posted By: Delta-T
The warm blob is no doubt a factor but your hand drawn circle doesn't quite make it to Port Augusta let alone Marble Bar, I wonder whats going on up there? Rhetorical question.


Seems your more then adequate at your own sneering. Given both locations reside on the periphery of a massive desert, maybe that’s where the heat comes from? Just a guess. 🙄

No monsoon as yet, heat builds and has no way of escape, gets dragged down by passing long wave troughs. The monsoon arrives and there’s a massive heat transference, cooling down the interior.
Posted by: Delta-T

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 20/01/2019 21:26

LonnyDave whats going on is this and a continuation into January.



You can guess February March and April are going to look similar too. I remember a puddle in my back lane in Mowbray still being frozen at 3pm one afternoon. Ah the good ol' days.

Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 20/01/2019 21:31

Originally Posted By: Delta-T
The warm blob is no doubt a factor but your hand drawn circle doesn't quite make it to Port Augusta let alone Marble Bar, I wonder whats going on up there? Rhetorical question.


That was discussed a few pages back. Maybe you were too busy sneering to notice the two are actually connected. Despite the fact that Marble Bar is on a much bigger island the temperatures in both locations are tempered the same way.
Posted by: Delta-T

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 20/01/2019 22:51

Are you referrng to the discussion between myself and Mega?
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 20/01/2019 23:00



Originally Posted By: Delta-T
Are you referrng to the discussion between myself and Mega?


No.
Posted by: Delta-T

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 20/01/2019 23:20

Yeah, you are. But thats ok if you insist on denying it. wink
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 21/01/2019 10:51

This morning we have:

* Pacific EQ trades fully established across all Nino zones (including the Kelvin Wave zone above N.G.)
* Pacific Nino.4 SSL now showing a high anomaly
* Sky clear across the Pacific Nino zones
* MJO now arrived/active above NW Aus (and set to strengthen over next 4-5 days)
* Indian Ocean IOD now back to neutral (with plenty of 30C water off the Pilbara)
* GOC simmering at 31-32C
* Pacific Ocean remaining ENSO neutral (water temps back-loaded to the West/Nino.4 region)

Conclusion: ....if you love cyclones in the Aus region, go to the front row!

Also noticed that the warming trend out over in Nino1.2 evident over past fortnight, should quickly subside as the trades pull up more Humbloldt currents, and the sub surface water over there has cooled markedly when you compare todays sub surface temp with what it was before the USA Govt shutdown. Maybe we are headed for a trend towards Nina-like conditions in the near term?
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 21/01/2019 13:07



Some notes on current sst.

A) Ningaloo Nina has weakened a lot in the last few weeks. The Ningaloo Nina causes similar circulation and rainfall anomalies as modoki.

B) Some cool water in this region, but also some warm water. Should all be cool for an ideal el nino, modoki or otherwise. Warmer water to the east allows convection to move out into the Pacific in an el nino like atmospheric state, but lack of cool waters in this region gives more opportunities for MJO/Rossby activity to push tropical convection into the Australian region, although cloudiness anomalies suggest that overall convection north of Australia is still suppressed.

C) Warm water here typical of modoki el nino. Warm pool is slightly displaced to the west of a dateline, whereas a perfect modoki would be slightly displaced to the east of the dateline. This region is critical to ENSO dynamics with WWBs rarely making it much further east than the dateline, and convection anomalies during most el ninos being strongest in this region. A very strong east based el nino such as 97/98 is required to get much atmospheric response further east than the dateline. Also note the strong pool of warm water to the south supporting strong cyclone activity in SH in this region boosting the WWB potential.

D) Waters now close to normal temps mostly here now. Can't have a canonical el nino with water this cool in this region. Waters north and south are cool, supporting enhanced high pressure that can boost trades and support La Nina transition. Is it far enough west though? Enhanced trades from this region will have limited impact further west, and will have to fight WWB activity generated from further west. Waters north had been very warm most of the year and have cooled a lot, whereas waters south were cooler earlier in the year and have generally been slowly warming.

E) More warm water again. I don't think this area has any significant influence on atmospheric patterns with convection anomalies rarely reaching this far east, and trade winds in this region mostly weak and opposite to trade wind anomalies further west. Modoki would imply cooler waters in this region, tending to -ve anomalies mid year, and getting closer to dateline temps, but not as warm near peak. Symptom rather than driver. See if it persists and/or if atmospheric changes can be pinned to this warmer water.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 21/01/2019 14:50

[img]https://m.imgur.com/wznZQMC?r[/img]

Not IOD cause of A

Not La Niña cause of C

Not El Niño cause of D

Not Modoki cause of E

Net result warm neutral.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 21/01/2019 15:28

E is anti-modoki, but C is pro-modoki. E has only been there a very short time, and has not impacted the atmosphere that I can tell. Previous episodes of modoki, 2004, 2002 and 2009 all featured brief periods with similar to E.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 21/01/2019 16:06



Updated - pretty clear that neutral warm persists.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 21/01/2019 16:08

Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 21/01/2019 19:12

Will the current WWB have an impact? Plenty of WWBs during neutral and la nina conditions during January have been followed closely by warming. However frequently WWBs around January during el ninos are not and seem only to temporarily hold up the cooling trend.

Here is an example from 2010



And in 2014 the January WWB was able to keep the western warmth going, but couldn't get the east half out of almost dead neutral temps. March WWB that seemed to get basin wide warming going again.

Posted by: mammatus meestrus

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 21/01/2019 19:29

thats the absolute worst SST anom chart for east coast Aus rainfall I've ever seen.
Posted by: marakai

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 22/01/2019 05:05

Originally Posted By: Delta-T
I don't see Mike sneering.


Maybe Mike need's to go open his own thread about it all then?
Posted by: vorts

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 22/01/2019 09:02


https://imgur.com/pNXmbeO



A description of the Modoki index can be found at
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2006JC003798
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 22/01/2019 09:46

Originally Posted By: mammatus meestrus
thats the absolute worst SST anom chart for east coast Aus rainfall I've ever seen.


MM - why is that?
Posted by: RC

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 22/01/2019 15:28

Bom lower the Enso status to El Nino watch.
Posted by: mammatus meestrus

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 22/01/2019 16:47

Wam anomalies in Tasman sea = weak high pressure. Warm air rising fills in high pressure.

weak high pressure = weak pressure gradients esp with cool anoms in north-east CS and near South Pacific.

Thats a double whammy. No moisture transport onshore from South Pac or CS anywhere south of Tropic of Capricorn.

With weak high pressure we get mostly NE winds, not the cooling SE winds associated with normal summer Tradewind patterns.

That means a: interior heat can migrate into coastal areas E of the divide, hotter temps, greater evaporation.
b: Greater chance of Ekman transport giving cold upwellings and feedback loops that deter moisture flows into the coast, effectively recreating desert coast moisture deficits.

That SST anom chart, to me, looks like more of the same for this summer: heatwaves with continuing severe moisture deficits.

We will need a major system to break it down. Hopefully not an other ex-Debbie flood.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 22/01/2019 17:31



According to BOM:

Quote:
The lack of an El Niño-like wind pattern indicates the atmospheric circulation required for El Niño has been missing this summer



Now look at the trade winds in 2006.


According to BOM:

Quote:
There has been a further strengthening of the El Niño during November: Pacific Ocean temperatures have continued
to warm along the equator, the Trade Winds remain weaker than average and cloudiness is above normal in the
western to central Pacific. The 2006/07 El Niño now looks to be entering the maturing phase, which is characterised
by self-sustaining feedback between the Pacific ocean temperatures, winds and cloud patterns.


And on 11 October 2006

Quote:
A strong westerly wind burst has emerged in the western Pacific in the past fortnight.


Both years peaked with westerly wind anomalies in the 3-4 m/s range, with 2006 at the top end and this year low end of that range, but the 2006 peak WWB gets described as 'strong', and this year's westerly winds totally ignored.
Posted by: Mega

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 22/01/2019 18:35

Maybe they changed the criteria over the years. Only way to find out is to ask them really.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 22/01/2019 19:00

Originally Posted By: mammatus meestrus
Wam anomalies in Tasman sea = weak high pressure. Warm air rising fills in high pressure.

weak high pressure = weak pressure gradients esp with cool anoms in north-east CS and near South Pacific.

Thats a double whammy. No moisture transport onshore from South Pac or CS anywhere south of Tropic of Capricorn.

With weak high pressure we get mostly NE winds, not the cooling SE winds associated with normal summer Tradewind patterns.

That means a: interior heat can migrate into coastal areas E of the divide, hotter temps, greater evaporation.
b: Greater chance of Ekman transport giving cold upwellings and feedback loops that deter moisture flows into the coast, effectively recreating desert coast moisture deficits.

That SST anom chart, to me, looks like more of the same for this summer: heatwaves with continuing severe moisture deficits.

We will need a major system to break it down. Hopefully not an other ex-Debbie flood.


Thanks for the explanation MM smile

.....I wonder though, if you only had access to the actual "today's" SST readings, ....would your explanation be the same???
Posted by: mammatus meestrus

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 22/01/2019 19:14

SST's or anoms?

Those anomalies seem to been locked in place all summer.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 22/01/2019 21:12

SST's are real/now.

The anom's refer now with respect to a tiny 30 year base line of data, over any (not recent) block period of time that climatologist's can pick out over the past circa 50 years to suit whatever their personal needs warrant.

10 minutes of checking anomaly charts on various climate sites (focusing on the reference anomaly date range [IF they show them]) will explain what I mean.

Why cant all climatologists agree on a standard anomaly reference data formula, (e.g. 1970 to present [or whatever reflects the newer available observations that "both camps" can agree to, updated every year??).
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 22/01/2019 21:45

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber


According to BOM:

Quote:
The lack of an El Niño-like wind pattern indicates the atmospheric circulation required for El Niño has been missing this summer



Now look at the trade winds in 2006.


According to BOM:

Quote:
There has been a further strengthening of the El Niño during November: Pacific Ocean temperatures have continued
to warm along the equator, the Trade Winds remain weaker than average and cloudiness is above normal in the
western to central Pacific. The 2006/07 El Niño now looks to be entering the maturing phase, which is characterised
by self-sustaining feedback between the Pacific ocean temperatures, winds and cloud patterns.


And on 11 October 2006

Quote:
A strong westerly wind burst has emerged in the western Pacific in the past fortnight.


Both years peaked with westerly wind anomalies in the 3-4 m/s range, with 2006 at the top end and this year low end of that range, but the 2006 peak WWB gets described as 'strong', and this year's westerly winds totally ignored.


October 2006 with respect to the dynamics of January 2019, without info on IOD/SOI/SST et al for that time = clutching at straws mate?

I commend you for relentlessly seeking a cause for our 2018 drought, hope you find it. Very happy to call it the "Hauber drought index" with the appropriate climatic indicators.

The reason is out there with all the metrics available to us, no one has nailed it (well to the satisfaction of peers) yet. That's why it's been one hell of a fascinating conversation over the past year on this thread.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 22/01/2019 22:20

Wow at this monsoon system as it arrives:

Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 22/01/2019 22:35

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber


According to BOM:

Quote:
The lack of an El Niño-like wind pattern indicates the atmospheric circulation required for El Niño has been missing this summer



Now look at the trade winds in 2006.


According to BOM:

Quote:
There has been a further strengthening of the El Niño during November: Pacific Ocean temperatures have continued
to warm along the equator, the Trade Winds remain weaker than average and cloudiness is above normal in the
western to central Pacific. The 2006/07 El Niño now looks to be entering the maturing phase, which is characterised
by self-sustaining feedback between the Pacific ocean temperatures, winds and cloud patterns.


And on 11 October 2006

Quote:
A strong westerly wind burst has emerged in the western Pacific in the past fortnight.


Both years peaked with westerly wind anomalies in the 3-4 m/s range, with 2006 at the top end and this year low end of that range, but the 2006 peak WWB gets described as 'strong', and this year's westerly winds totally ignored.


They haven’t changed a thing, it’s because you refuse to acknowledge SOI or OLR. They are 2 key ingredients that they look at when they consider ENSO.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 23/01/2019 07:13

Originally Posted By: Kino


They haven’t changed a thing, it’s because you refuse to acknowledge SOI or OLR.

So you are not disputing the similarity between trades this year and trades in 2006 then?

Originally Posted By: Kino

acknowledge SOI or OLR. They are 2 key ingredients that they look at when they consider ENSO.


Lets have a look at the actual BOM criteria:

Quote:
"An El Niño has been declared and is underway."

Any three of the following criteria need to be satisfied:
Sea surface temperature: Temperatures in the NINO3 or NINO3.4 regions of the Pacific Ocean are 0.8 °C warmer than average.
Winds: Trade winds have been weaker than average in the western or central equatorial Pacific Ocean during any three of the last four months.
SOI: The three-month average SOI is –7 or lower.
Models: A majority of surveyed climate models show sustained warming to at least 0.8 °C above average in the NINO3 or NINO3.4 regions of the Pacific until the end of the year.


I don't see any OLR or cloudiness in there. SOI is there, but they also specificy that el nino should be declared if 3 of the 4 requirements are met. So SST, trades and models are enough to declare el nino according to BOM specified criteria.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 23/01/2019 08:27

In all La Nina transitions I have observed in TAO there seems to be a returning subsurface warm pool. To illustrate with 2010:

Jan 21:



Most of the subsurface warm pool is moving a fair way east. There is a small area of warmer subsurface waters near 5N, 160-180E

Mar 27:



This subsurface warm pool has intensified and is showing signs of extending further west as -ve anomalies further west have weakened since January.

May 1:



The subsurface warm pool is now on the western edge of the map, and further east a strong La Nina transition is underway.

Something like this happens every La Nina transition. Other La Nina years have some type of weak returning warm pool evident by this date. Current situation:



No returning subsurface warm pool.

Not sure of the exact mechanism of this returning subsurface warmth. Rossby waves might play a role, although movement is very jerky. Might signify equatorial counter current weakening to allow more warmth to accumulate north of the equator in the west. Part of it might be rapid Kelvin wave forced extension of the equatorial cool subsurface waters leaving warm anomalies behind to the north. I can't put a definitive mechanism on what is happening here, so I can't say whether it is important for La Nina transition, but do note it is evident in other transitions by this date and missing so far. Maybe it will appear in a month or three with no significant consequence.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 23/01/2019 10:15

MJO expected to go null after it sets off a pair of cyclones over Tropical Aus over next day or three. Should allow a period of tropical moisture ingress into the hotter areas of inland Aus?
Posted by: Werner K

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 23/01/2019 16:45

"period of tropical moisture ingress into hotter areas of inland Aus" - would be nice to flush some of this disgusting heat away!.
Posted by: SEAN888

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 23/01/2019 20:09

Originally Posted By: Kino
What part of BANNED do you not understand? Seriously? And your first line is why it is banned.


Love it how the undercurrent of denial is tolerated on this forum, yet as soon as that denial is contested, the rules suddenly get screamed in the person's face.

Now THAT'S a conspiracy!
Posted by: Delta-T

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 23/01/2019 20:32

Originally Posted By: SEAN888
Originally Posted By: Kino
What part of BANNED do you not understand? Seriously? And your first line is why it is banned.


Love it how the undercurrent of denial is tolerated on this forum, yet as soon as that denial is contested, the rules suddenly get screamed in the person's face.

Now THAT'S a conspiracy!


Uh huh, I have a feeling that quote is going to get a flogging.
Posted by: Eigerwand

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 23/01/2019 20:50

Originally Posted By: SEAN888
Originally Posted By: Kino
What part of BANNED do you not understand? Seriously? And your first line is why it is banned.


Love it how the undercurrent of denial is tolerated on this forum, yet as soon as that denial is contested, the rules suddenly get screamed in the person's face.

Now THAT'S a conspiracy!


Yeah man, it’s rather galling hey. A good one that often pops up is the anomalies for SST’s. Always interesting to see the creative denial that goes on there despite every major scientific organisation backing up the veracity of the figures, not to mention the marine ecosystems themselves.
Posted by: Delta-T

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 23/01/2019 21:16

Originally Posted By: Eigerwand
Originally Posted By: SEAN888
Originally Posted By: Kino
What part of BANNED do you not understand? Seriously? And your first line is why it is banned.


Love it how the undercurrent of denial is tolerated on this forum, yet as soon as that denial is contested, the rules suddenly get screamed in the person's face.

Now THAT'S a conspiracy!


Yeah man, it’s rather galling hey. A good one that often pops up is the anomalies for SST’s. Always interesting to see the creative denial that goes on there despite every major scientific organisation backing up the veracity of the figures, not to mention the marine ecosystems themselves.


Thats just an indication of an even bigger conspiracy.
Posted by: Eigerwand

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 23/01/2019 21:21

Haha! Yeah, those coral reefs etc really know how to play that cloak and dagger.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 24/01/2019 10:38

Trades remain fresh Nino1.2 through into Nino.4. With EC & GFS both forecasting trades in this region for freshen more over coming days, it will be interesting to see how low SST drop in Nino1.2 by early next week.

.....and for Mike, do I detect a WWB to commence into W side of Nino.4 over the weekend?

MJO is very active over Aus tropics right now, with the expected tropic storm about to impact Broome with some useful rain. More interesting will be watching the rainfall accumulations in the Townsville to Pt Douglas region over the next 6-9 days, ...and what this tropical activity does to the dynamics of the WWB generation zone above New Guinea.
Posted by: RC

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 24/01/2019 10:53

And still the high in the tasman sea remains.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 24/01/2019 11:04

Originally Posted By: RC
And still the high in the tasman sea remains.


But it is elongating more W-E more like a typical weak summer high, the Quidge impact is very weak now and shouldn't block moist air from advecting in from the Coral sea to northern Qld areas?
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 24/01/2019 12:09

Need Riley to get to a large Cat4/5 and then barrel ESE across the Country. That'll shift things.
Posted by: Mega

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 24/01/2019 12:40

Originally Posted By: Petros
Originally Posted By: RC
And still the high in the tasman sea remains.


But it is elongating more W-E more like a typical weak summer high, the Quidge impact is very weak now and shouldn't block moist air from advecting in from the Coral sea to northern Qld areas?


But it's these weak little extensions of the southern highs that keep building northwards and dragging up dry air onto the east coast that's the problem. For example, why can't the high east of Tasmania that you see on this chart just continue moving east like the rest of the SH instead of stalling between NSW and NZ? Instead, check out to +120 hours, that high has once again stalled between NSW and NZ.

Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 24/01/2019 13:36

There has to be something going on in the atmosphere or ocean to be causing that.
Posted by: GringosRain

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 24/01/2019 16:21

Originally Posted By: Mega
Originally Posted By: Petros
Originally Posted By: RC
And still the high in the tasman sea remains.


But it is elongating more W-E more like a typical weak summer high, the Quidge impact is very weak now and shouldn't block moist air from advecting in from the Coral sea to northern Qld areas?


But it's these weak little extensions of the southern highs that keep building northwards and dragging up dry air onto the east coast that's the problem. For example, why can't the high east of Tasmania that you see on this chart just continue moving east like the rest of the SH instead of stalling between NSW and NZ? Instead, check out to +120 hours, that high has once again stalled between NSW and NZ.



Everyone has had a go at explaining this to some extent Mega, and they all have merit, but I dont think anyone has nailed why it has basically morphed into the same shape across all seasons for years now. The warm water in the Tasman has been around for a long time now, but this doesnt cover it fully does it? Same with the warm water east of PNG, a factor Im sure, but to setup such a stagnant synoptic pattern for so long?
To me the uppers have not been dynamic enough to bust through the Quidge regularly. Down here we used to get decent shear and storms would roll off the range onto the coast. Now there is no shear and storms mostly just park on the ranges; its indicative of a change in the jetstream pattern Im guessing. Maybe the antarctic vortex has tightened, leaving us in the upper doldrums?
When the uppers do activate it can setup some nice events, with black northeasters into NSW a pattern that the quidge enhances when we do get a good cold pool move in.
We need highs centred over Tasmania with long fetch easterlies onto the whole eastern seaboard with a dip of low pressure down the coast, (not just a heat trough 300ks inland) to bring decent rains (outside the tropics)
Certainly a very claustrophobic pattern. If it keeps up another 4 years it will squeeze a lot of people to breaking point.
Posted by: Funkyseefunkydo

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 24/01/2019 16:55

Looks like Hadley cell expansion to me.
Posted by: Mega

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 24/01/2019 18:04

Originally Posted By: Funkyseefunkydo
Looks like Hadley cell expansion to me.


You're probably right, but why so frequently and prolonged these past few summers? What's going on up there in the NH?
Posted by: Funkyseefunkydo

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 24/01/2019 18:09

Let’s build a wall!
Posted by: Long Road Home

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 24/01/2019 18:35

Next week or 2 are critical. The low forming in the GOC expected to move south and wander over the NT interior supplying the southern passing troughs with a good deal of moisture. The current heat over the S will be acting as a big energy source which will attract the low - I'm expecting it to move further south than forecast.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 24/01/2019 19:13

Originally Posted By: Long Road Home
Next week or 2 are critical. The low forming in the GOC expected to move south and wander over the NT interior supplying the southern passing troughs with a good deal of moisture. The current heat over the S will be acting as a big energy source which will attract the low - I'm expecting it to move further south than forecast.


Could not agree more.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 24/01/2019 20:53

MJO looks to have spawned a couple of tropical Aus storm systems atm, ...as expected by many.
Posted by: marakai

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 24/01/2019 23:51

Originally Posted By: Mega
Originally Posted By: Funkyseefunkydo
Looks like Hadley cell expansion to me.


You're probably right, but why so frequently and prolonged these past few summers? What's going on up there in the NH?


Weakening of Earths magnetic field and a squishing of the upper atmosphere in response ?
Posted by: Delta-T

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 25/01/2019 08:06

Can anyone explain why that warm water blob is not reinforcing a rising air zone as opposed to a descending air zone.

They do look 'coupled' but that seems counter-intuitive to me.
Posted by: Delta-T

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 25/01/2019 08:20

(Edit expired)
Hmm, on thinking about it more the word 'coupled' needs clarifying. I can see how a zone of persistant cloud-free high pressure could create a warm blob but it doesn't seem likely a warm blob is going to "reinforce" a high... so maybe the warm water is an effect not a cause and not a coupling as in an ENSO coupling.

Still looking for the source of the persistant high. It has vaguely coincided with three years of precipitous Antarctic sea-ice drop-off.
Posted by: Mega

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 25/01/2019 16:56

Maybe it has to do with expansion of Hadley Cell?

http://www.climatesignals.org/climate-signals/hadley-cell-expansion

"As global temperatures rise, the temperature difference between the poles and the equator is likely to decrease, expanding the cell of air circulation adjacent to the equator known as the Hadley Cell. One effect this has is that mid-latitude regions like the Mediterranean and the Southwestern US are likely to see an increase in sea level pressure—which corresponds to drier weather."

But how can that possibly be since global warming does not exist? crazy
Posted by: Delta-T

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 25/01/2019 18:25

That seems a strong possibility. Didn't take much searching to find
this.

I think if there was a deeper appreciation of how exquisitely balanced some of these atmospheric systems are, there might be a little more curiosity and concern in certain quarters. Imagine the NH flipping to a single cell system for a year or three...that is where the trend is heading. Our little warm blob is nuthin'.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 25/01/2019 19:06

Originally Posted By: Mega
Maybe it has to do with expansion of Hadley Cell?

http://www.climatesignals.org/climate-signals/hadley-cell-expansion

"As global temperatures rise, the temperature difference between the poles and the equator is likely to decrease, expanding the cell of air circulation adjacent to the equator known as the Hadley Cell. One effect this has is that mid-latitude regions like the Mediterranean and the Southwestern US are likely to see an increase in sea level pressure—which corresponds to drier weather."

But how can that possibly be since global warming does not exist? crazy


Er, ...when is this effect going to happen? I hear its raining at Cairns???
Posted by: Delta-T

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 25/01/2019 19:18

Originally Posted By: Petros
Originally Posted By: Mega
Maybe it has to do with expansion of Hadley Cell?

http://www.climatesignals.org/climate-signals/hadley-cell-expansion

"As global temperatures rise, the temperature difference between the poles and the equator is likely to decrease, expanding the cell of air circulation adjacent to the equator known as the Hadley Cell. One effect this has is that mid-latitude regions like the Mediterranean and the Southwestern US are likely to see an increase in sea level pressure—which corresponds to drier weather."

But how can that possibly be since global warming does not exist? crazy


Er, ...when is this effect going to happen? I hear its raining at Cairns???


"an increase in sea level pressure—which corresponds to drier weather" due an expansion of the Hadley cell and a strengthening of the STR is probably going to be felt more in the south.
Posted by: Mega

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 25/01/2019 19:36

There was a good post on reddit that I found too regarding Hadley Cell. It's interesting stuff:

https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comme...n1jh/?context=3

It's cool too though if you don't want to believe it's happening and that the earth is somehow in a stagnant state of climate over billions of years.
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 25/01/2019 20:52

But shouldn't a Hadley Cell expansion lead to an increase in trade winds and a La Ninalike state?
Posted by: RC

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 25/01/2019 21:29

Originally Posted By: Petros


Er, ...when is this effect going to happen? I hear its raining at Cairns???


Maybe it is. You should look further south where it is not raining.
Posted by: Delta-T

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 25/01/2019 21:50

Originally Posted By: Chris Stumer
But shouldn't a Hadley Cell expansion lead to an increase in trade winds and a La Ninalike state?


The observations and forecasts are for a widening and weakening of the Hadley circulation from here
Posted by: RC

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 26/01/2019 09:59

Absolutely no change in the stagnant Tasman highs in the BOM four day forecast.

Longer range forecasts predict no change either well into February.

Didn't I read here someone predict it was going to break down the end of this month and there would be a widespread rain event across Australia?

It is nearly like that high is also keeping the monsoon pushed up high across Australia. Blocking the quidge from doing it's normal run back and forward across Queensland. That is, moving from western Qld to coastal Queensland bringing rain events, then retreating back to western Queensland again.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 26/01/2019 11:10

Yep RC, looking very Quidge-like again along the E Coast. Not good.
Posted by: Funkyseefunkydo

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 26/01/2019 18:28

Haha!
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 26/01/2019 18:48

Nice to see tropical rain setting in for NE QLD - hope it carries on for a week!
Posted by: Delta-T

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 27/01/2019 12:23

I regularly check out Seabreeze to get a rough handle on winds for the days ahead. It hasn't changed in 6 weeks.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 27/01/2019 12:43

Tropical rain is now pushing down as far as Mackay. Very good to see.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 27/01/2019 13:15

But it’s not hitting Rockhampton Petros so doesn’t matter 🙄🙄🙄
Posted by: Mega

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 27/01/2019 13:23

It's amazing what can happen over this side of the country when all the moisture isn't being clogged up in the Indian / WA monsoon. I know this isn't always the case however.
Posted by: one drop

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 27/01/2019 13:24

3000 posts and nothing much useful or interesting to add. ever.

Originally Posted By: Kino
But it’s not hitting Rockhampton Petros so doesn’t matter


its a bit like this endless weather pattern we're stuck in smile
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 27/01/2019 18:20

Originally Posted By: RC
...
Didn't I read here someone predict it was going to break down the end of this month and there would be a widespread rain event across Australia?

It is nearly like that high is also keeping the monsoon pushed up high across Australia. Blocking the quidge from doing it's normal run back and forward across Queensland. That is, moving from western Qld to coastal Queensland bringing rain events, then retreating back to western Queensland again.


Who ever it was, ....well done to them smile . .....Must be painfull to get non-politically-correct rain when it arrives?

....looking forward to some way down here as well (but not as much please), ....the situation does look healthier for the inland/SE areas of Aus in coming weeks IMO.


There is still four days of wetness to endure before the end of the month (when it will presumably stop?) - so good luck floodwise to all those in tropical QLD.

Just teasing, Nino'ists, dont get too upset.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 27/01/2019 18:38

Originally Posted By: one drop
3000 posts and nothing much useful or interesting to add. ever.

Originally Posted By: Kino
But it’s not hitting Rockhampton Petros so doesn’t matter


its a bit like this endless weather pattern we're stuck in smile


Define what will be the end of it? - rain in Townsville like last years event, ..?
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 27/01/2019 18:58

Originally Posted By: one drop
3000 posts and nothing much useful or interesting to add. ever.

Originally Posted By: Kino
But it’s not hitting Rockhampton Petros so doesn’t matter


its a bit like this endless weather pattern we're stuck in smile


Like your quality 46 contribution ‘eh. But you should prob change your user to ‘long drop’ cause that’s more reflective smile
Posted by: RC

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 27/01/2019 19:07

Originally Posted By: Petros

Who ever it was, ....well done to them smile . .....Must be painfull to get non-politically-correct rain when it arrives?



It is not very widespread.
Posted by: one drop

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 28/01/2019 02:21

Originally Posted By: Kino


Like your quality 46 contribution ‘eh. But you should prob change your user to ‘long drop’ cause that’s more reflective smile


smile
back to the topic of climate drivers, what about the effect of the kino cell expansion....
full of hot air, extending the doldrums right across the continent i can't see this relentless pattern letting up any time soon.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 28/01/2019 08:06

More likely the seas being the drivers, and good thing that one drop of mediocrity doesn’t make much difference in the outlooks.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 28/01/2019 11:01

* Nino.3 seems to be cooling
* subsurface temp profile E of Nino.3 shows cooler waters rising closer to the surface (due to the strong trades over the past 10 days out that way I guess)
* no cloud over the Pacific Nino regions at the moment
* clearly westerly winds over the EQ Pacific from N.G. through into Nino3.4 - and set to stay that way for several days to come acc. to EC & GFS (Windy site)
* MJO models (well the american ones at least) show a tendency for the MJO to linger out in the Pacific

Very much like a Kelvin Wave generation setup?

To me, if the MJO returns to null over next 4-5 days, more tropical activity for AUS, but if it strengthens out mid Pacific like some MJO models suggest, we could end up pushing towards Nino conditions. This would, imo, be confirmed by tropical cloud formation over Nino3.4, and a weaker monsoon around AUS into February.

Next few days will be interesting.
Posted by: Delta-T

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 28/01/2019 12:33

Keno: a repetitive, annoying announcement every 3 minutes. wink
Posted by: Seina

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 28/01/2019 15:54

Hi guys smile !!!
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 28/01/2019 18:13

I think that its significant that NQ has had the biggest ever flood of the Daintree R ever. Just noting it here for future records.

Looks to have been very wet over the past day or so Townsville to Mackay going by the SatIR/radar loop?
Posted by: Mega

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 28/01/2019 18:18

And much more to come if current modeling is anything to go by.
Posted by: RC

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 28/01/2019 19:51

Originally Posted By: Petros
I think that its significant that NQ has had the biggest ever flood of the Daintree R ever. Just noting it here for future records.

Looks to have been very wet over the past day or so Townsville to Mackay going by the SatIR/radar loop?


Lots of rivers have big floods.

But where is the widespread trough covering a large area of Australia. All we are seeing here is a monsoon. That is not unusual.

Look at the weather map, the high is still there in the Tasman, and still forecast to stay there. Looking at long term forecasts the first couple of weeks of Feburary already look to be a write off for widespread rain events for much of Australia.
Posted by: Mega

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 28/01/2019 20:16

Originally Posted By: RC
Originally Posted By: Petros
I think that its significant that NQ has had the biggest ever flood of the Daintree R ever. Just noting it here for future records.

Looks to have been very wet over the past day or so Townsville to Mackay going by the SatIR/radar loop?


Lots of rivers have big floods.

But where is the widespread trough covering a large area of Australia. All we are seeing here is a monsoon. That is not unusual.

Look at the weather map, the high is still there in the Tasman, and still forecast to stay there. Looking at long term forecasts the first couple of weeks of Feburary already look to be a write off for widespread rain events for much of Australia.


You do realise some of our biggest rain events have been aided by blocking highs deep in the Tasman Sea? Oswald being one of them. There is also a difference between the rubbish ridge from the last month to the traditional ridge of Feb-Mar which looks like setting up later in the week. There is more to it than just looking at a weather map and identifying a 'H' in the Tasman Sea.

And your observation about the high still being in the Tasman and forecast to sit there is technically incorrect as well. For the first time in over a month those highs are shifting further south and they're finally moving from W to E like they should be. Some models have the monsoon trough getting down to about Mackay late in the week as the ridge weakens between those highs. There seems to be some movement in the upper levels again too which is a good sign instead of the same old upper-level ridge.

Yes, it's bad through a fair chunk of the state right now but we still have Feb & Mar to go. I think you're extremely brave to be writing the season off already.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 28/01/2019 20:25

El Nino Modoki impact is delayed monsoon onset but once it arrives more intense than normal. Enhanced rainfall in January and especially February, then back to dry in March.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 28/01/2019 20:47

So does a classic El Niño so did the La Niña of last year.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 28/01/2019 21:24

Originally Posted By: RC
Originally Posted By: Petros
I think that its significant that NQ has had the biggest ever flood of the Daintree R ever. Just noting it here for future records.

Looks to have been very wet over the past day or so Townsville to Mackay going by the SatIR/radar loop?


Lots of rivers have big floods.

But where is the widespread trough covering a large area of Australia. All we are seeing here is a monsoon. That is not unusual.

Look at the weather map, the high is still there in the Tasman, and still forecast to stay there. Looking at long term forecasts the first couple of weeks of Feburary already look to be a write off for widespread rain events for much of Australia.


RC ..its the lack of a monsoon that would be significant.

Hope that not too much rain falls over your house. ...to vindicate you climatic perception.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 28/01/2019 21:50

Originally Posted By: Kino
So does a classic El Niño


No it doesn't. A classic el nino weakens the monsoon all summer long, although the effect is not strong.

Originally Posted By: Kino
so did the La Niña of last year.


Last year was wet in Jan and Mar, dry in Dec and Feb. El Nino modoki is dry in Dec and especially Mar, and wet in Jan and especially Feb.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 28/01/2019 22:02

Lets all sit back for a week. MJO is so important right now. Non of us can change where it tends from this present state.
Posted by: ashestoashes

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 28/01/2019 22:26

Honestly ENSO is very confusing at the moment, we've got a solid cold sub surface pool building in the East Pac.


Then meanwhile we've got a monster MJO burst predicted for the El Nino favourable regions. Along with this negative OLR readings have started to materialise.

Posted by: RC

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 29/01/2019 09:27

Originally Posted By: Mega



Yes, it's bad through a fair chunk of the state right now but we still have Feb & Mar to go. I think you're extremely brave to be writing the season off already.


You can write off the season as consistent rain has not fallen, and the growing season is nearly over.

What use is 500mm falling in two days. That is not out of the ordinary, but unusual.

People need to get over total rainfall and instead concentrate on consistent rainfall.
Posted by: mammatus meestrus

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 29/01/2019 10:59

totally agree.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 29/01/2019 11:22

Pacific trades are weakening imo, and are progged to weaken further over the next 6 days acc. to Windy sites pair of models. Good chance that Nino3.4 waters may warm (become warmer than the Nino.4 region) over this next week? This could tip the ENSO neutral indicators towards El Nino fairly quickly I reckon.

RC - re whats the use of 500mm. Didnt I see one of you post about low dam levels up around Rocky?

If you folk dont want rain now, .....then could you send some down here. Cant see the mountains for smoke today.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 29/01/2019 11:34

Check out EC's latest rainfall charts for next 10 days over QLD. Finally some decent rain for the west side of the divide around the Cloncurry-Winton regions. Hope it comes off!
Posted by: RC

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 29/01/2019 14:14

Originally Posted By: Petros


RC - re whats the use of 500mm. Didnt I see one of you post about low dam levels up around Rocky?



Nope, but you seem to have a very urban centric view of rain events.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 29/01/2019 14:40

How is wishing for rain for you and your dams urban centric 🤔🤔🤦🏻‍♂️
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 29/01/2019 15:09

Have you people been reading the se qld/ne nsw thread lately
especially Seabreezes and Mega's posts.? Nothing to look forward to but record or near record rain deficiencies from the coast right into the inland along the border. Rockhampton Winton and Cloncurry are worlds away
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 29/01/2019 17:48

Sure looks better
http://news-images.weatherzone.com.au/twc/North%20QLD%20rain%2020190129.png
Posted by: Long Road Home

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 29/01/2019 17:51

Watching this space closely, individual storms forming near the low/monsoon trough over W QLD have the potential for some significant flooding. This pattern looks to be sticking around as far as models can see.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 29/01/2019 18:49

Dejavu from last year. Some folk up on QLD northern regions, once convinced that "it wont rain" - seem to hate it when rain actually arrives, ....as per last year.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 29/01/2019 18:52

Originally Posted By: NotsohopefulPete
Have you people been reading the se qld/ne nsw thread lately
especially Seabreezes and Mega's posts.? Nothing to look forward to but record or near record rain deficiencies from the coast right into the inland along the border. Rockhampton Winton and Cloncurry are worlds away


HSHP - hope you get some rain soon too. I hope we get rain soon - SE Vic would be worse off over the past 12 months than your location. Seems to be a theme here among some that if it "doesnt rain for me" ....it's all bad!
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 29/01/2019 19:07

Thanks for the reply Petros and I can assure you that is not my attitude.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 30/01/2019 08:10

Warm pool on the dateline continues to drive westerly anomalies to the west. These westerly anomalies continue to maintain the warm pool on the dateline. Further east temps have cooled a fair bit, but seem to be rebounding a little in response to the recent spread of westerly anomalies further east, which is forecast to continue for much of the current short range forecast.



A new warm Kelvin wave is evident in the west, but seems unusually slow moving. Cool Kelvin wave is approaching the eastern edge and should be causing cooling in the east in the next week or two.



According to research El Nino Modoki has its strongest impact in Autumn. Looking at recent years the impact seems to be mixed. In 2010 Autumn was quite wet (lead up to 10/11 La Nina may have contributed). 2005 was quite dry, and 2003 was close to average.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 30/01/2019 13:15

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
...According to research El Nino Modoki has its strongest impact in Autumn. Looking at recent years the impact seems to be mixed. In 2010 Autumn was quite wet (lead up to 10/11 La Nina may have contributed). 2005 was quite dry, and 2003 was close to average.


So for Nino Modoki, if one event was wet, another dry, and another average, ....doesn't that suggest that some other phenomenon is perturbing the the chance of rainfall during Modaki events?
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 30/01/2019 23:13

Surprised we haven’t heard from our Townsville people who told us it’d never rain again there...meanwhile this is the fullest the Ross River Dam has been in 5 years and the earliest it’s been to 100% in a long time.
Posted by: Long Road Home

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 31/01/2019 11:16

There is also some incredible rains forecast for W QLD now by BoM WATL, huge boost to the river systems with 300-400mm forecast. GFS extends the big falls further south every run with Boulia (who have been in drought for years) also expecting something decent.. All that recent intense heat is providing a massive buildup - what I predict will be a near record flood for much of QLD in weeks to come.
Posted by: adon

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 31/01/2019 12:23

As long as it gets into the Warrego, Maranoa and darling downs and hopefully even further south. The whole eastern hair of the continent needs a big drink
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 31/01/2019 13:36

Originally Posted By: RC
A

....Didn't I read here someone predict it was going to break down the end of this month and there would be a widespread rain event across Australia?

It is nearly like that high is also keeping the monsoon pushed up high across Australia. Blocking the quidge from doing it's normal run back and forward across Queensland. That is, moving from western Qld to coastal Queensland bringing rain events, then retreating back to western Queensland again.


Whoever the someone was, the end of the month has arrived. .....along with major flooding issues in Nth QLD.

The current monsoon, which has been in place for near a week now, is a ripper!:

Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 31/01/2019 13:48

MJO models all mixed with the monsoons progression from here (strongly in Nino-like phase 6). Its been centered out there for near 4 days now, so I'd have expected some decent cloud forming over Nino.4, and also the monsoon state over Aus to be weaker than it presently is.

Will the MJO remain out in 6/7 (potentially creating a coupled atmoshpere) ....or will it go back null leaving the monsoon in play over Aus for another week or more?

The yankee models seems to voting for the former, many other models send it back null in a few days time. Interesting, esp. with the WWB evident West of Nino.4 currently in place.
Posted by: ifishcq

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 31/01/2019 14:38

Funny how things can be quite different just not to far away from all this rain. I'm near Rockhampton and it's still so dam dry here. My 2 dams are dead empty and just cracked mud. The cattle are on what bore water I can pump. No rain for this area likely at all by the looks of all the models. Yet floods just to the north. It truly is a land of drought & flooding rains.
Posted by: Funkyseefunkydo

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 31/01/2019 15:05

Raining over 5% of the country. Not really widespread.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 31/01/2019 16:08

We are in drought, we all know that. I'm in severe drought down here too - with the added bonus of being surrounded by bushfire.

Whats worse than a drought? - it's a drought coupled with a failed monsoon season.

I'm sure that most of us (but starting to suspect that "most" could be substituted with "many") realize that when rains return after a drought, the moisture for it doesn't arrive as a gift from the southern ocean.
Posted by: Sillybanter

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 31/01/2019 16:12

Might be a little more than 5% me thinks. It is a fairly significant weather event even if your not part of it.
Originally Posted By: Funkyseefunkydo
Raining over 5% of the country. Not really widespread.
Posted by: Long Road Home

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 31/01/2019 16:16

About 30% of the country is expecting decent rains, about 7-10% expecting flooding rain. Pretty significant area when you think about it
Posted by: Funkyseefunkydo

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 31/01/2019 16:46

Okay 5% yeah nah. 30% yeah nah. What would constitute “widespread rain for Australia “? 50%?
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 31/01/2019 18:14

Originally Posted By: Funkyseefunkydo
Okay 5% yeah nah. 30% yeah nah. What would constitute “widespread rain for Australia “? 50%?


ergo - just a flame, no fact or opinion to add value to this discussion.
Posted by: Funkyseefunkydo

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 31/01/2019 18:40

What’s an ergo?
Posted by: Mega

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 31/01/2019 18:41

I wouldn't say it's widespread yet but surely it can't be ignored that the monsoon of old has returned to northern QLD after years of it being almost strictly confined to NT/WA.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 31/01/2019 19:29

Overall dry areas clearly dominate over wet areas for January.



Modoki impact has enhanced monsoon starting in January, but mostly evident in February. There were some areas of enhanced rainfall about NT, but less than for an ideal Modoki. The pattern was dominated by enhanced westerly flow over the north of the country, with strong convergence over NE Qld. Typicaly Modoki pattern is enhanced westerly flow but convergence happening more in NT and NW Qld.



From NH charts it looks like monsoon this year is getting much more push from NW Pacific, as opposed to NE Asian continent. At least compared to last year.

My eye has been caught by the area of large scale sinking air in east Indian Ocean forecast in the current MJO forecast. North Australia is still in uplift, but Descending air in east Indian tends to transmit stability towards the SE over the rest of the continent.

Posted by: Mega

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 31/01/2019 19:41

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
From NH charts it looks like monsoon this year is getting much more push from NW Pacific, as opposed to NE Asian continent. At least compared to last year.


Completely agree with this.

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
My eye has been caught by the area of large scale sinking air in east Indian Ocean forecast in the current MJO forecast. North Australia is still in uplift, but Descending air in east Indian tends to transmit stability towards the SE over the rest of the continent.



Handy image. If that large area of descending air traverses east then we might be looking at a dryish late Feb-Mar. Only early days yet though.
Posted by: mammatus meestrus

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 31/01/2019 19:42

those SST anoms for the Tasman and central eastern CS have produced exactly the kind of rainfall deficiencies highlighted in the above decile maps for Jan.

there's still not enough depth and strength in the E'ly flow to provide enough widespread convergence from the NQ monsoon trough and kick off moisture ingress into SEQLD and sub-tropical NSW.

ergo: dry from Mackay south.

outlook looks a little better, but the structural problem remains, unless that tropical low does the ex-Oswald that Access G keeps progging.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 31/01/2019 22:05

Mm your outlook cant see through to the end of March! ...or if it can, would you share it?
Posted by: Delta-T

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 01/02/2019 17:03

Originally Posted By: mammatus meestrus
those SST anoms for the Tasman and central eastern CS have produced exactly the kind of rainfall deficiencies highlighted in the above decile maps for Jan.

there's still not enough depth and strength in the E'ly flow to provide enough widespread convergence from the NQ monsoon trough and kick off moisture ingress into SEQLD and sub-tropical NSW.

ergo: dry from Mackay south.

outlook looks a little better, but the structural problem remains, unless that tropical low does the ex-Oswald that Access G keeps progging.


It's been bad enough enduring weeks of solidified blocking high. The low is forecast not to budge for two weeks now. In the history of meteorology, nevah has February weather from Mackay to Point Perpendicular been so predictable. Its preposterous.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 01/02/2019 21:57

....its weather. We get so transfixed on our model predictions.

Yet we still believe predictions out 10+ years.
Posted by: Funkyseefunkydo

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 01/02/2019 22:26

Originally Posted By: Petros
....its weather. We get so transfixed on our model predictions.

Yet we still believe predictions out 10+ years.
many ten twenty thirty year predictions coming true. It’s not time to become complacent. It’s time to act . Sea ice can you see a trend ? I do.
Posted by: Funkyseefunkydo

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 01/02/2019 22:30

Might add BoM spot on with their season outlook for summer temps.
Posted by: Morham

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 03/02/2019 00:15

Originally Posted By: Petros
....its weather. We get so transfixed on our model predictions.

Yet we still believe predictions out 10+ years.

There are weather predictions from your common weatherman.

There are also predictions from people who possess a level of intelligence and knowledge that I can't fathom. Nor can the common weatherman.

Numbers being crunched, calculations, systems swirling in their brains keeping them up at night pondering what may be in store for the climate given the variables at hand. I tend to listen to those people, not disregard their conclusions and throw them in the pile of your common weatherman.

We listen to those people when engineering a building. We listen to them at the doctors micro surgery dept. We listen to them when building a satellite to orbit planet earth. We listen to the researchers editing DNA/building A.I/building quantum computers. Those gifted with the intelligence and motivation to push the boundaries of discovery.

When it comes to the climate why do we not listen to them?

The human race is probably a galactic miracle. Our civilisation exists in a delicate temperature zone, sure we would survive in a hotter world, our civilisation may not. And that would be a cosmic shame to look at earth in 5000 years and see scattered mad max style human tribes roaming the cooler regions of earth. All the cities and magnificent achievements forgotten and decaying.

And those are my thoughts for the moment, back to the weather!
Posted by: Funkyseefunkydo

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 03/02/2019 19:01

Posted by: Long Road Home

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 03/02/2019 22:30

Woolshed W of Townsville around 1,725mm for this event so far, Mt. Isa out west approaching half it's annual rainfall in the first few days of Feb. May not be country-wide (as is the case with a true La-nina pattern) however widespread stuff and more to come. Drought would be well and truly over now for the NW of the state. Newer model runs trying to bring the system further south through inland QLD than previous days which is a positive sign, may give areas like Boulia who have struggled for years a decent soaking.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/02/2019 12:21

As Funkys animation shows, Nino1.2 looks to be warming over past week, imo due to weakend trades down that way. In fact the trades across the Pacific are weaker over past week (and set to remain that way for 6 days more going by EC/GFS on Windy site). Appears to be an actual WWB from N.G. through to the dateline.

Looks very Nino'ish to me.

The only counter to this is the cooler waters rising into the Nino.3 E side - but shouldnt influence the values in Nino3.4 zone imo.

The present monsoon over Aus seems to be cut-off from the general monsoon system(s) with the ITCZ located across Indonesia/N.G. by the SatIR.
Posted by: RC

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/02/2019 12:35

I do not think we will see much change until the South American coast cools down.
Posted by: mammatus meestrus

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/02/2019 11:34

I don't see much change until that Tasman sea heat blob breaks down.

geez, it's gone quiet in here. Unprecedented climate records being broken everywhere and it's tumbleweeds blowing down the Main Street.
Posted by: RC

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/02/2019 11:43

I dunno, it was dry last spring/summer and the one before that and the one before that and that heat blob was not there then.

Seems to me there is a million and one reasons why it refuses to rain like it did in the past.

To get so many failed spring/summers in a row is quite unusual.
Posted by: mammatus meestrus

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/02/2019 11:51

it was wet last spring and the heat blob wasn't there.....that was during borderline La Nina conditions.
the heat blob developed early summer and rainfall failed.

It was wet this spring and the heat blob hadn't developed yet either.

I agree there are multi-factorial reasons for continuing failure of summer rainfall south of the tropics.

But it does look like an ocean heat issue in the Tasman sea is disrupting the normal flow of moisture laden E to SE winds onto sub-tropical areas.
Posted by: Funkyseefunkydo

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/02/2019 12:16


Tasman look similar to this time last year. I wonder if this winter will be the same as last?
High move back over the mainland bringing cool SW winds to SE Australia.
Posted by: mammatus meestrus

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/02/2019 12:56

Thats exactly what I mean.
Posted by: Mega

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/02/2019 13:07

Completely agree with you MM. As soon as I saw the redevelopment of that warm blob a couple of months ago I became worried.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/02/2019 19:01

I'm skeptical that the GOC is presently shown as anomalously cool at the moment. It is 31C.

Flowin, can you post the actual SST map for the above pair of dates?
Posted by: Funkyseefunkydo

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/02/2019 19:19

This is what a hot northern Australia waters looks like. and today.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 06/02/2019 10:50

Thanks FSFD

Looks ENSO neutral atm, with a watch on water temps at Nino3.4 should they rise.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 06/02/2019 13:46

The first hint of subsurface warmth coming back west to the north of the equator has appeared in latest charts. Also the current WWB is strongest south of the equator, which is a typical el nino decline pattern.



However generally the westerlies along the equator are still substantial and have persisted for nearly a month now.



Short term forecasts suggest some weakening of westerly activity this week, and further intensification of the WWB in the second week. CFS weekly suggests a very strong WWB persisting throughout February. There would seem to be prospects of the current WWB pushing the Pacific into a moderate el nino event early in the year with potential for an extreme event if it continues building. Especially if the weekly CFS forecast verifies, although I'd say that forecast should be taken with a grain of salt. Also hard to tell exactly how this WWB will interact with factors that tend to destroy el ninos this time of year though.
Posted by: CoastalStorm22

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 06/02/2019 16:35

That WWB on CFS looks like a whopper if it comes to fruition.
Posted by: marakai

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 07/02/2019 01:52

That WWB is looking like Groundhog Day just about the same time last year within a week or two ....and the year before as well.
Actually is there any year over the last few say three or four that got things right ?
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 07/02/2019 07:51

WWBs occurred this time of year (Jan-Mar) in 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2018. All except 2016 resulted in significant warming in the next few months. 2016 was the tail end of an extreme el nino with most of the WWB restricted to south of the equator, and with subsurface warm anomalies stacked heavily to the east - typical el nino decline mode. 2018 was far weaker than the other WWBs and I didn't even notice it or comment on it at the time, but only afterward when it warmed in the east did I look back and consider that a weak WWB had occurred at the correct time to be a possible factor.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 07/02/2019 08:02

I had commented a while ago that the Ningaloo Nina seemed to be weakening, but looking at latest SST is seems to be back. Big pile of cool SSTs further south of the region too.



Temperature gradient between cool waters to the west and warm waters to the east would be enhancing westerly activity in this region of the world.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 07/02/2019 13:48

With MJO out at 6/7 atm, there is no cloud over the Pacific in that region going by latest SatIR.

Easterly (well ESE'ly) trades look to have returned to typical levels over Nino1.2 (which did warm, even over the top of cool lower layers during the lull over past 4-5 days).

Suggests to me that the uncoupled atmosphere look to continue, and that MJO will either go null in coming days, or zip along to phase 8, leaving Aus to stew in its present monsoonal conditions for at least a week or more to come.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 07/02/2019 17:12

MJO 6/7 is West Pacific and there is currently plenty of cloud in West Pacific.



Cloudiness and westerly anomalies in West Pacific continue to be at similar levels to the 06/07 weak el nino event, and more extensive than previous warm neutral events such as 14/15.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 08/02/2019 09:43

Ta Mike. I did think that phase 8 was at the E boundary of Nino.3 (have now marked the zones on my globe).

The present cloudiness at 6/7 has been persistent for many weeks there, despite the MJO location. Cloud there, imo, is typical of neutral enso.
Posted by: Mega

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 09/02/2019 03:37

Originally Posted By: CoastalStorm22
That WWB on CFS looks like a whopper if it comes to fruition.


Still on the cards, and it's huge! Puts the others from the last few months to shame:

Posted by: Mega

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 09/02/2019 04:00

For comparison, 2016, 2017 & 2018:


..................................................
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 09/02/2019 08:45

The far east side of Nino3.4 (130-120W) looks to be cooling on todays readings. The below SST profile has also cooled out that way over past week.
Posted by: Seina

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 09/02/2019 10:44

what are the perils we face???
Posted by: Seina

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 09/02/2019 10:49

post 1489503 -- the numbers end with 10! Make them end with 10, not one smile !!!!! it's not the MJO!
Posted by: Funkyseefunkydo

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 09/02/2019 16:27

What’s going on here?
Posted by: Funkyseefunkydo

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 09/02/2019 16:30

Gfs extended has onshore surface winds but 700hpa will be SW.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 09/02/2019 18:46

At Lake Mac?

Looking at latest GFS run this arvo, .....looks dry in the 8 day outlook for most in Aus. Perhaps opportunity will be mopped up by the large prognosed tropical storm in the Coral Sea (but far offshore) set to move slowly E?
Posted by: Funkyseefunkydo

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 09/02/2019 20:50

Referring to SAM effects on east coast.
Posted by: Funkyseefunkydo

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 09/02/2019 21:03

Umm yeah that’s why it’s dry.
Posted by: ashestoashes

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 09/02/2019 21:20

UH OH!
The SAM is literally dropping off a cliff, also worst possible time for it when we rely on the Monsoonal moisture dropping South with highs sitting south of the continent.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 10/02/2019 14:06

Forecast WWB according to GFS next week is pretty extreme. Wait and see if it happens, and if it does we should be well on the way to a strong el nino.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 10/02/2019 18:28

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Forecast WWB according to GFS next week is pretty extreme. Wait and see if it happens, and if it does we should be well on the way to a strong el nino.


Got that "its about to swing one way, ....or another" feeling in my gut as well Mike.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 10/02/2019 20:14

Knife edge alright. If we were in June I'd be getting on a Nino, but we barely into February so I know better.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 11/02/2019 10:43

This morning:

* Pacific trades are lacklustre (Westerly anomaly within the W side of Nino.4)
* MJO signal relatively strong at 6/7 - but no tropical cloud evident at that region
* SST profile continues to be holding same over past 7 days, except cooling a bit over E side of Nino.3 and Nino1.2 (dont expect that trend to continue with the trades as weak as they are, and are prognosed to continue to be)
* Below SST profile out E side of Nino.3 is "thin" - the surface water temp cools off rapidly at 25M below the surface (but as above - may not mean much with weaker than normal trades out that way)
* models see nothing in the outlook to trigger moist air inflow from the Indian over NW WA - nor do they allow for flow in from the Coral Sea, for the next week

Perfect conditions for that hated Quidge.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 11/02/2019 23:17

So what is driving the short term climate response now?
ENSO appears atypical. Different labels put on ENSO scenarios, and status, but we're in the season where ENSO is commonly uncertain.
MJO a measure that is probably more a response indicator than driving indicator. IOD and SAM other indicators not alone but potentially also related in the bigger picture. Seems that a lot is still estimating or guess without much sound basis. So much we don't yet know.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 12/02/2019 14:19

Originally Posted By: Flowin
So what is driving the short term climate response now?.........


I'd call it climatic indecision.

With ENSO neutral, for the southern hemisphere (only), it seems that Huey is happy with the heat balance between the equator and the south pole (probably influenced by the massive tongue of warm water extending SE'ward all the way to 100W/30S in the southern Pacific).
Posted by: Funkyseefunkydo

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 12/02/2019 16:29

SAM going neg = strong westerly winds.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 12/02/2019 18:53

Thanks FSFD - if it remains negative for a week or two, what's your prediction for the impact of this, given the present climatic conditions around Aus?
Posted by: Funkyseefunkydo

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 12/02/2019 19:01

Cut off lows not making it to the mainland bringing dry and windy conditions to the southern half of Australia.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 12/02/2019 19:58

Originally Posted By: Petros
Originally Posted By: Flowin
So what is driving the short term climate response now?.........


I'd call it climatic indecision.

I like that response Petros. Maybe we need a new indicator named something like the "climate decisiveness indicator" LOL
Anyway away from the humour, I am enjoying reading the different perspectives on the current situation and outlook, while different parts of Australia are suffering with floods, fire, and drought, trying to understand the reasoning and trend is very interesting.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 13/02/2019 09:34

Trades have backed off to near neutral along the equator. Looking at current circulation charts suggests this isn't because the westerlies have backed off so much as they have moved south of the equator. Very strong westerly activity is forecast to commence in the next day or three, as the area of westerly activity moves back north a little.



What is curious is the warming in the far east. Satellite images suggest substantial warming not just near the equator, but all along the South American coast. Trade winds along the equator in the east are normal, maybe a little stronger than normal. On the larger scale the strength of the SE Pacific high is relatively normal, although it had been stronger than normal for much of the last year or three. The SE Pacific does seem to be backing away from a La Nina like mode to be pretty neutral at the moment. At the same time the NE Pacific had been backing away from el nino like towards neutrral, but seems to be surging back towards el nino like with the current westerly activity extending also towards California. Maybe its just short term and the trend away from el nino like will continue there.

Subsurface along the equator suggests a cool wave reaching the American coast making the eastern warming more puzzling.



However a look at what is happening a little south of the equator shows that there has been strong westerly activity in the Central Pacific, and possibly a warm Kelvin wave that is now impacting the east coast. Not sure if a wave can transmit effectively this far from the equator, and with low resolution of TAO the appearance of a wave could be coincidental.



The strength of the forecast WWB may push the western warm pool further east, and may also act to cool it down directly through evaporation, so it will be interesting to see if this combined with whatever is causing the eastern warming will move the current pattern away from Modoki like to a more east based warm event.
Posted by: snowbooby

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 13/02/2019 22:26

...a bit of chatter around about the possibility of a "hybridised" nino...a mixture of canonical and modoki. Apek, Yu and Qian " Why were the 2015/16 and 1997/98 extreme El Ninos different?". I'm not making any claims that the dynamics are the same for the current situation.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 13/02/2019 22:53

"enso-modokised with a tint IOD minus AAO divided by MJO" frown
what does hybridised mean when people in past have already split the ENSO indicators into different "breeds"....
I am not criticising the science like key influences in ocean heat, dynamics, and atmospheric coupling, but maybe the nino vs nina concept is flawed. After all it was a culturally transmitted concept in spanish boy / girl analogies of the weather or in other words a historical belief from several centuries ago well before much measuring, modelling, statistics, theory testing... maybe it is the nino / nina concept that is flawed... food for thought
Posted by: snowbooby

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 13/02/2019 22:57

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber

The strength of the forecast WWB may push the western warm pool further east, and may also act to cool it down directly through evaporation, so it will be interesting to see if this combined with whatever is causing the eastern warming will move the current pattern away from Modoki like to a more east based warm event.


...only speculation as I dont have any source of evidence but wondered if the strengthening of westerly anoms not only increasing zonal advection of ssta's but also reducing upwelling (in the east) stabilising and stratifying the mixed layer which tends to shoal and is subject to increased net affect of direct solar radiation, perhaps more than offsetting the evaporative cooling affect...
Posted by: one drop

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 14/02/2019 10:06

Originally Posted By: Flowin
"enso-modokised with a tint IOD minus AAO divided by MJO" frown
what does hybridised mean when people in past have already split the ENSO indicators into different "breeds"....
.... maybe it is the nino / nina concept that is flawed... food for thought


agreed, for my part i think too much focus is put on enso state when it is obviously driven and influenced by several of the other TLA's (iod, pdo, sam, pna, eac, etc... smile )

some of these climate cycles run for decades and even longer. nino is a short term cycle in my mind and while obviously useful some of these other influences deserve more focus and recognition, rather than diluting the enso definitions further.

my opinion as a novice anyway.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 14/02/2019 10:58

Originally Posted By: Flowin
"....... but maybe the nino vs nina concept is flawed.


I'm thinking that it is a measuring tool that works less accurately than we all thought.

At least for Australia, or maybe we should never even specify "Australia" in terms of rainfall variation, is it just too big to generalize?
Posted by: Flowin

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 14/02/2019 11:00

The monthly and seasonal climate outlook from BoM has been updated again today. I won't mention about the climate influences as others on this forum could do it better than me.

But I will pose a challenging question.
If one goes to the BoM webpage for rainfall outlook for the chances of exceeding median rainfall it brings up the usual coloured map of Australia and colour legend. This has the chance from brown very low chance to deep blue very high chance of exceeding median rainfall. All good it tells us based on historical median rainfall (1990 to 2012) for those months what is the BoM seasonal outlook model indication of chance of above or below that historical median rainfall for the relevant month or season of the year.


On the bottom left of that map there is button with different layers that can turned on and off. Click that button and you will see a layer called ocean mask. Turn that layer off and the colour shading for chance of exceeding rainfall extends out over ocean areas.
So BoM’s seasonal outlook model ACCESS S model can produce seasonal estimates of rainfall over the oceans. But how do they assess chance of exceeding median rainfall over the oceans – there are practically no gauges over vast areas of the ocean? What data set is used to define historical median rainfall over the ocean ?
I can only assume that it may be based on some climate reanalysis product. If the historical median rainfall over the ocean is based on some climate reanalysis product, then that is different to the historical median rainfall over the land that is based on the AWAP (Australian Water Availability Project). So we would expect a potential discontinuity may be possible at the coastline. It does seem to be a bit of a mystery that the seasonal outlook can show chance of exceeding median rainfall over the ocean.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 14/02/2019 11:20

Originally Posted By: snowbooby


...only speculation as I dont have any source of evidence but wondered if the strengthening of westerly anoms not only increasing zonal advection of ssta's but also reducing upwelling (in the east) stabilising and stratifying the mixed layer which tends to shoal and is subject to increased net affect of direct solar radiation, perhaps more than offsetting the evaporative cooling affect...


This is exactly what happens.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 14/02/2019 11:27

Originally Posted By: Flowin
The monthly and seasonal climate outlook from BoM has been updated again today. I won't mention about the climate influences as others on this forum could do it better than me.

But I will pose a challenging question.
If one goes to the BoM webpage for rainfall outlook for the chances of exceeding median rainfall it brings up the usual coloured map of Australia and colour legend. This has the chance from brown very low chance to deep blue very high chance of exceeding median rainfall. All good it tells us based on historical median rainfall (1990 to 2012) for those months what is the BoM seasonal outlook model indication of chance of above or below that historical median rainfall for the relevant month or season of the year.


On the bottom left of that map there is button with different layers that can turned on and off. Click that button and you will see a layer called ocean mask. Turn that layer off and the colour shading for chance of exceeding rainfall extends out over ocean areas.
So BoM’s seasonal outlook model ACCESS S model can produce seasonal estimates of rainfall over the oceans. But how do they assess chance of exceeding median rainfall over the oceans – there are practically no gauges over vast areas of the ocean? What data set is used to define historical median rainfall over the ocean ?
I can only assume that it may be based on some climate reanalysis product. If the historical median rainfall over the ocean is based on some climate reanalysis product, then that is different to the historical median rainfall over the land that is based on the AWAP (Australian Water Availability Project). So we would expect a potential discontinuity may be possible at the coastline. It does seem to be a bit of a mystery that the seasonal outlook can show chance of exceeding median rainfall over the ocean.


Outlook is based on the Access C model. Used to be POAMA. They could calculate medians based on model output, or on observations. Hopefully if the model is calibrated correctly both should be pretty much the same, and for areas were observations are lacking they can use the model output. There are satellite monitoring products that measure rainfall over the ocean, not sure how accurate they are.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 14/02/2019 13:35

Mike I think you mean ACCESS S model.
I don't know if they could calculate medians from the model output. My understanding is that the reference period for median rainfall over land is 1990 to 2012 AWAP data.
I doubt (but do not know for sure) that the routine seasonal updates (re-runs of the ACCESS S model) would give the output for 1990 to 2012 period sufficiently calibrated (to what data could be used anyway) to use as a reference for median 1990 to 2012 rainfall over the ocean.

I have looked at Satellite rainfall estimation products for a while. They are useful to get a feel for rainfall over the ocean where there are no gauges but they do not appear to be very accurate. I looked at the recent Townsville late Jan early Feb heavy rainfall period and the 7 days totals estimated from satellite methods were much less than the actual totals. You can access the Satellite estimates of rainfall for past periods here: https://pmm.nasa.gov/precip-apps
Posted by: RC

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 14/02/2019 13:52

Is this large burst of westerly wind going to be borderline south of the area that brings on Kelvin waves?

I was reading another forum that are going on and on about it, but a stormsurf chart seems to indicate it will barely get in the Kelvin wave generation region.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 14/02/2019 14:08

Forecast shows extensive westerly anomalies through Kelvin wave generation region. Some Stormsurf charts are not updating, and the forecast chart showing westerlies mostly south of Kelvin wave generation region is over one week old.

And yes Flowin I meant Access S.
Posted by: Seina

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 14/02/2019 16:09

If you do know what is happening to our society, look at your local weather station very carefully!!!!! smile
Posted by: Seina

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 14/02/2019 16:16

If the following is too long so be it smile smile !!!!!

Background Theory to Understanding the Model, Summary: Year 2001-2019
Originally created: 26th of February 2017

Adelaide weather conditions have tended to become more humid, since about the end of the 20th century. Part of this is due to effects of increasing levels of carbon dioxide [CO2] in the lower troposphere and stratosphere, and the consequences of these for variations in water-vapour.

The gas form of CO2 is a linear-shaped air molecule with four [4] covalent -- shared -- electron bonds between two [2] oxygen atoms, and a central carbon atom.
All air molecules that have or can have a permanent or temporary electric dipole moment are capable of absorbing infrared [IR] electromagnetic [EM] radiation.

As gaseous CO2 is intrinsically linearly-shaped, it does not have a permanent electric dipole moment. However, when it absorbs IR EM radiation from the Earth, CO2 experiences bending and stretching of its internal molecular bonds. This bending and stretching of bonds is known as a vibrational mode, and happens in particular IR EM radiation wavelength bands.

Both bending and stretching vibrational modes must be asymmetric for there to a change in the electric dipole moment, and subsequent absorption of IR EM radiation. Asymmetry can be achieved when bending and stretching is not centralised around the carbon atom.

Thus, IR wavelength EM radiation bands must produce asymmetry upon interacting with the CO2 gas. IR EM radiation with wavelengths peaking at about 15 [15.5 to 16.5 microns] and about 4.3 microns respectively produces the bending and stretching IR vibrational modes for CO2.

IR EM radiation is of terrestrial origin; from the Earth's surface. Therefore, it has longer wavelengths [in microns] and a less-intense wavelength integration [total EM emitted over total terrestrial IR spectrum] than radiation with a higher frequency.

Higher-frequency radiation includes sunlight, x-rays, uv-rays, gamma rays or cosmic rays. There is less energy emitted [in Watts per square metre per micron] in the IR spectrum than in the visible spectrum, between approximately 0.7 and 0.4 microns.

As the gas form of water -- water-vapour -- is an oxygen atom with two [2] covalent hydrogen bonds, the molecule has a V-shape. The hydrogen atoms are drawn closer together because the single covalent bonds lead to instability in molecular form. In nature hydrogen is stable as the H2 molecules, while helium is a noble gas.

Thus, H2O has a permanent electrostatic polarisation, the oxygen atom being the negative end; the hydrogen atoms the positive. When H2O molecules encounter other H2O molecules, they can align electro-statically. The phase -- solid, liquid or gas -- in which they align is temperature-dependent.

Two [2] other major differences between vapour forms of CO2 and H2O molecules: they have different atomic masses relative to the mean air mass, and CO2 cannot condense in the troposphere, while H2O can.

CO2 has an atomic weight (relative to the 28 units average for air at sea-level pressure), of 44 units, which means it is heavier than air. In comparison, water-vapour is about 18 units, which means it's lighter than air. Therefore, overall, H2O is more buoyant than CO2 in the troposphere.

The differences in atomic masses and abilities to condense in the troposphere -- between CO2 and H2O -- mean that CO2 can influence the surface air temperature, without condensing, which will influence the behaviour of H2O.

As the temperature increases at the surface -- due to IR EM radiation absorption by CO2, the amount of water-vapour the air can retain changes (on average, increases), which is why the surface temperature changes. This happens in a day-by-day loop. The capability of the weather layer (troposphere) to retain water-vapour is temperature-dependent. This is called the Clausius-Clapeyron Equality. This summary is an extension of that theory.

Water-vapour gets into the air (lower troposphere) by evaporation (water to steam), transpiration (photosynthesis) and sublimation (ice to steam). Latent-heat is the energy required to change a given mass of material from one state (solid, liquid or gas) to another. Water molecules absorb external heat -- sunlight -- when they become liquid (from ice), or steam (from liquid), and release it when they become liquid (from steam) or ice (from liquid).

More latent-heat is gained from the air in sublimation because ice crystals evaporate directly, and change in phase twice. When latent-heat (at the altitude clouds form) condenses on cloud-forming particles, more energy is lost to the atmosphere surrounding clouds, bringing the immediate environment (near clouds) towards a temperature equilibrium (cloud temperature falls, that of the surrounding air rises). This continues further up into the troposphere until rising thermal air currents cool to the temperature of the air surrounding them, at which point they no longer rise.

Clouds block sunlight from reaching the surface to varying degrees. The deeper clouds are (their optical depth) the more sunlight is reflected. Sunlight is the highest-intensity (frequency) radiation from the Sun to reach the Earth's surface (per micrometre, or micron). A micron is 0.000001 metres, a bandwidth in the energy spectrum. This means different parts of the energy (electric and magnetic) spectrum have different properties (which have either visible or invisible effects), which can be measured. The greater the frequency of EM radiation, the more impact it can have on air molecules behaviour.

Thus, regardless of what is beneath cloud formations, energy will be lost to space or higher-atmospheric levels (stratosphere, mesosphere, and so on), and not reach the ground or sea, if they are absent. The atmosphere (all of it, from space to the surface) is very transparent to incoming light (it travels straight through it), hence light is mostly unblemished in intensity when it reaches the surface.

Sunlight has the energy required (and available) to break water-molecule bonds (on the ground/in the sea) to help evaporation along. The energy per unit micron in sunlight is far greater than per micron in infrared radiation (different part of the energy spectrum), which comes from the Earth. Thus, evaporation is not possible without sunlight – water must first be boiled before it can leave the Earth’s surface as steam. Non-water-vapour molecules (that can also absorb heat) can absorb and emit infrared heat between each other, and with water-vapour, however the energy they emit will not be enough (per micron) to break water-molecule bonds. As water-vapour mostly resides in the troposphere, the absorbed and emitted heat must also reside here to break these bonds. All heat-absorbing gases contribute to the air (troposphere) temperature, however only water droplets (in clouds) and cloud forming particles can affect the amount of sunlight reaching the surface.

Of heat-absorbing gases in the troposphere, only water-vapour condenses under current atmospheric conditions. This means all other IR heat-absorbing gases cannot naturally change phase (from solid to liquid or gas) in the air, no matter how much the temperature changes. Thus, if the air temperature increases with more non-condensers added, this will mean more water-molecule bonds will break away, because more heat is added to the system, with the same amount of incoming sunlight. The addition of any gas that can absorb heat (from any source) to the troposphere will increase its temperature. On the other hand, as more thermals form clouds, or deeper clouds, these will lead the temperature to fall more (beneath them). Therefore, the gap between high and low day-time and night-time temperatures -- the diurnal temperature range -- will increase, because the expansion and shrinking of the atmosphere (pressure and density) is temperature-dependent, as is the water-vapour retaining ability. Cloud-cover changes thus have a major impact on ocean and atmospheric heat storage.

The atmosphere can only retain so much heat because air has a finite heat capacity and volume, so whatever is stored in the atmosphere as heat will eventually be emitted back to space.

Clouds can also prevent (more-so over open water) air from heating up a lot because they reflect the high-intensity light from the Sun away from the surface. This means there can be big differences in air temperatures (near the surface) across land areas, and the sea. Water-vapour thus can help regulate the temperature of the atmosphere through the Clausius-Clapeyron Equality.

References

Jacob. J. (1999) Introduction to Atmospheric Chemistry. Princeton University Press. pp. 119-120. [Understanding Atmospheroc Molecular Science.]

Douglas C. Giancoli. (2000) Physics for Scientists and Engineers – With Modern Physics, 3rd Edition, US Prentice Hall. [For understanding the science.]

William J. Burroughs, Bob Crowder, Ted Robertson, Eleanor Vallier-Talbot, Richard Whitaker. (1996) Weather, US Weldon Owen Inc. [For understanding fundamental weather concepts.]
Posted by: marakai

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 15/02/2019 03:47

So basically water vapour absorbs way more IR heat than CO2 ever can right ? Also you introduce a factor that is not recognized under the current dogma and that is electro magnetism and the effects so far unrecognized under the current regime of only TSI coming into the equation of climatic effects. UV effects on Ozone and concurrent climatic effects that are so far unaccounted for under the current human only effects of climate change looked for under the IPCC regime.
People need to understand that for all the supposed Science that is quoted by the IPCC, their only mandate is to look for Human Induced climate change and NOTHING ELSE... No other Science is ever looked into as an alternate cause. IE the only cause they can possibly find is a Human Induced one...

I'm not joking, go take a look at their Mandate.
Posted by: CeeBee

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 15/02/2019 07:38

marakai said "No other Science is ever looked into as an alternate cause."

That's not true. From this IPCC report it says:

More than half of the observed increase in global mean surface temperature (GMST) from 1951 to 2010 is very likely due to the observed anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. The consistency of observed and modeled changes across the climate system, including warming of the atmosphere and ocean, sea level rise, ocean acidification and changes in the water cycle, the cryosphere and climate extremes points to a large-scale warming resulting primarily from anthropogenic increases in GHG concentrations.

Solar forcing is the only known natural forcing acting to warm the climate over this period but it has increased much less than GHG forcing, and the observed pattern of long-term tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling is not consistent with the expected response to solar irradiance variations.

The Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) could be a confounding influence but studies that find a significant role for the AMO show that this does not project strongly onto 1951–2010 temperature trends.

There you have it, the IPPC does in fact look at natural climate drivers.

So marakai, go take a look at their Mandate.

https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_Chapter10_FINAL.pdf

https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/
Posted by: marakai

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 15/02/2019 07:57

And of Solar forcing the only factor taken into account is TSI as stated above.

WMO and the United Nations Environment Programme established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1988. The role of the IPCC is to assess, on a comprehensive, objective, open and transparent basis, the scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant to understanding the scientific basis of risk of human-induced climate change, its potential impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation. The IPCC does not carry out research nor does it monitor climate-related data or other relevant parameters. It bases its assessment mainly on peer reviewed and published scientific/technical literature.

http://www.wmo.int/pages/summary/cosponsored_summary_en.html
Posted by: bartholomu

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 15/02/2019 08:03

One very large volcanic eruption makes all the discussion mute, planet earth will dish out an extinction level event again as it has repeatedly over millions of years, we humans are a mere blip in time. Human population is the elephant in the room for all the problems our planet has, Enjoy life because unless some magical global population control is ever agreed to we are all heading to the same end period.
Posted by: Thunderstruck

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 15/02/2019 08:35

I'd be worried about water vapour a hell of a lot more than any CO2 when it comes to warming of this planet that is for sure, especially at the levels they are right now which is very, very small but that is for another thread....

TS cool
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 15/02/2019 11:19

According to NCEP El Nino formed in January, and el nino like atmospheric conditions existed in January.

Quote:
El Niño conditions formed during January 2019

Quote:
Compared to last month, the region of enhanced equatorial convection expanded near the Date Line,
while anomalies remained weak over Indonesia (Fig. 5). Low-level wind anomalies became westerly
across the western Pacific Ocean, while upper-level wind anomalies were mostly westerly over the
eastern Pacific. The equatorial Southern Oscillation index was negative (-0.6 standard deviations).
Overall, these features are consistent with borderline, weak El Niño conditions


(compared to last month. That is during January compared to Dec)

NCEP uses lower thresholds than BOM, so no surprise that NCEP declares el nino when BOM doesn't. But NCEP recognise that atmospheric conditions have been weakly el nino like, implying that the atmosphere has responded pretty much as expected to the weakly el nino like SSTs that have been present.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 15/02/2019 12:12

Originally Posted By: marakai
And of Solar forcing the only factor taken into account is TSI as stated above.

WMO and the United Nations Environment Programme established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1988. The role of the IPCC is to assess, on a comprehensive, objective, open and transparent basis, the scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant to understanding the scientific basis of risk of human-induced climate change, its potential impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation. The IPCC does not carry out research nor does it monitor climate-related data or other relevant parameters. It bases its assessment mainly on peer reviewed and published scientific/technical literature.

http://www.wmo.int/pages/summary/cosponsored_summary_en.html


Game Set and Match to Maraki.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 15/02/2019 12:17

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
According to NCEP El Nino formed in January, and el nino like atmospheric conditions existed in January.

Quote:
El Niño conditions formed during January 2019

Quote:
Compared to last month, the region of enhanced equatorial convection expanded near the Date Line,
while anomalies remained weak over Indonesia (Fig. 5). Low-level wind anomalies became westerly
across the western Pacific Ocean, while upper-level wind anomalies were mostly westerly over the
eastern Pacific. The equatorial Southern Oscillation index was negative (-0.6 standard deviations).
Overall, these features are consistent with borderline, weak El Niño conditions


(compared to last month. That is during January compared to Dec)

NCEP uses lower thresholds than BOM, so no surprise that NCEP declares el nino when BOM doesn't. But NCEP recognise that atmospheric conditions have been weakly el nino like, implying that the atmosphere has responded pretty much as expected to the weakly el nino like SSTs that have been present.


So Mike, it hasnt been a modaki event these past few months after all?
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 15/02/2019 12:33

Despite the trades being in Doldrums around the Kelvin Wave generation zone, which I understand is a clear westerly anomaly, the Pacific remains clear of significant tropical cloud except in the Western half of Nino.4, as it has been for months now.

Trades are back to typical at Nino1.2 through to Nino.4, and are progosed to remain that way for several days more. Which I reckon will continue to hold NIno1.2 SST cool (or cool further as cool subsurface waters very close to the surface there atm), ....and retain the present temp in Nino.3

I would say El Nino watch status remains a fair call, but this ENSO neutral state will remain for at least another week before we can call either a continuation of the present state, or a drift to Nino. For me a look at the SatIR image in 7 days time should be the best hint at which way the climate is heading.

Mike - re weak El Nino right now - is it possible for the northern hemisphere to have a weak El Nino while the southern half remains neutral? (that is not a loaded question, I dont know).
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 15/02/2019 12:43

Originally Posted By: Petros


So Mike, it hasnt been a modaki event these past few months after all?


It has been very much a modoki event.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 15/02/2019 14:30

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
According to NCEP El Nino formed in January, and el nino like atmospheric conditions existed in January.

Quote:
El Niño conditions formed during January 2019

Quote:
Compared to last month, the region of enhanced equatorial convection expanded near the Date Line,
while anomalies remained weak over Indonesia (Fig. 5). Low-level wind anomalies became westerly
across the western Pacific Ocean, while upper-level wind anomalies were mostly westerly over the
eastern Pacific. The equatorial Southern Oscillation index was negative (-0.6 standard deviations).
Overall, these features are consistent with borderline, weak El Niño conditions


(compared to last month. That is during January compared to Dec)

NCEP uses lower thresholds than BOM, so no surprise that NCEP declares el nino when BOM doesn't. But NCEP recognise that atmospheric conditions have been weakly el nino like, implying that the atmosphere has responded pretty much as expected to the weakly el nino like SSTs that have been present.


Doesn't that say "El Nino like conditions" and not an El Nino has formed? Big difference I would have thought.
Posted by: one drop

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 15/02/2019 14:35

no, it says "el nino conditions".
and acknowledges "borderline, weak el nino conditions"

it's not a binary on off switch.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 15/02/2019 14:59

If El nino conditions last long enough then it is recognised as an official el nino event. If they do not last long enough then no event is recognised. If the conditions last long enough for an event to be recognised, then obviously the point at which the event formed is when el nino conditions were first in place.
Posted by: Funkyseefunkydo

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 15/02/2019 16:08

I wonder if this track be different if SAM had stayed positive?
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 15/02/2019 17:58

Originally Posted By: one drop
no, it says "el nino conditions".
and acknowledges "borderline, weak el nino conditions"

it's not a binary on off switch.


You are referring to NCEP? - or BOM?
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 15/02/2019 18:14

Originally Posted By: Funkyseefunkydo
I wonder if this track be different if SAM had stayed positive?


Really good point. I'd say yes as it's only the trough that could send it to the graveyard. Continued ridging would have almost guaranteed QLD landfall.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 15/02/2019 18:45

NF - Boo for the Quidge (in this rare instance). Cards continually stacked up against rain for the larger SE of Aus for so long now.

IF - we don't tend towards El Nino-like conditions over the next week, ....then long term statistics (no reference to current climatic condition indicators at all - they have not helped any of our predictions over the past year I reckon), would tend to favor flood after drought?

Apologies to those in N central QLD who are experiencing the aftermath of a whopper.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 16/02/2019 23:26

Side note...interesting article in the Australian today about the BoM & it’s homogenisation activities..l
Posted by: Funkyseefunkydo

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 17/02/2019 06:54

Hahahaha!
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 17/02/2019 11:56

Pacific EQ trades though the Nino regions look to very weak by this time next week. MJO looking to keep away from Aus for next week or two. Looking more Nino like every day of late.

If there is to be an Autumn break for parts of Aus, .....it wont be an early one?
Posted by: Delta-T

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 17/02/2019 13:30

Yeah, the BOM do an awesome job. In another life I studied meteorology and got a job there.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 17/02/2019 18:30

Well done Delta-T, geez the Aus tropic's is running with a near-flat battery given we are just entering the 2nd half of February!:

Posted by: Delta-T

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 17/02/2019 20:30

Hmm, better clarify that...
In a parallel universe that happened.
Posted by: marakai

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 18/02/2019 00:48

Originally Posted By: Delta-T
Hmm, better clarify that...
In a parallel universe that happened.


Wouldn't bother clarifying M8, half the population live there anyway.
Posted by: RC

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 18/02/2019 08:52

That WWB does not seem to be as strong as what was predicted.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 18/02/2019 10:14

Probably about as strong as the moderate WWB EC predicted, but weaker than extreme WWB GFS predicted.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 18/02/2019 11:56

It's going to have to rain damned hard across the Northern Territory over the next 10 days to meet Modoki those requirements we were told to watch for.



Posted by: Mega

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 18/02/2019 12:13

I have to agree with others about the last WWB not really living up to its full potential. Even Mick Ventrice mentioned the same thing on his Twitter a while ago.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 19/02/2019 17:18

Typicaly Modoki impact in February is an intensified monsoon with heavier rains in NT and western Qld. Impact of this Modoki event for February has been an intensified monsoon with heavier rains in Western Qld and eastern Qld, with below average rainfall in Northern Territory.

The prime mechanism of Modoki impact on Australian rainfall is intensified westerly winds over the north of Australia which enhance the monsoon. Impacts are strongest in NT and western Qld due to convergence with SEs from the subtropical ridge over SW Pacific.

Typical circulation during a Modoki event:



From January through to mid February we have seen enhanced westerlies over north Australia just as expected with Modoki.



The arrow marks the characteristic circulation anomaly, which is also the same circulation anomaly driven by the Ningaloo Nina, which has also been clearly evident.

Marked by the oval is a weak area of southerly wind, and towards the north of this region is a region where the westerly flow is substantially weakened. This seems to correspond to the area in NT which failed to receive rain from the enhanced monsoon.

Perhaps this area was caused by the strong low pressure over North Qld which pushed southerlies on the western flank. Or perhaps this area pushed drier air into the NT region, delaying the development of heavy convection in the westerly flow until further east and is the reason why the low pressure/convection etc was strongest over Qld.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 19/02/2019 17:29

Generally the WWB is not as strong as GFS suggested it might be, however the current chart does have some impressively strong westerlies near 160E.



I am puzzled as to why the current WWB is not able to drive more of the subsurface warm anomalies from the SH to the equator.

While not exceptionally strong the current WWB looks to be quite long lived, running onto the end of the January event, and with no end in sight in current short range forecasts.



It seems that despite the signficant westerly activity the western warm pool is doing little more than holding its own. Presumably some mechanism of el nino decay typical during the early part of the year is still in play.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 20/02/2019 22:04

GFS extended has now been forecasting a return to normal trade winds in the Western Pacific towards the second part of week 2. One of the runs was quite strong with potential for significant cooling, but last couple runs have backed off a bit. MJO is forecast to end a fairly long period in the el nino favourable half and start into the La Nina favourable Indian ocean phases about this time.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 21/02/2019 18:55

Just looked at the SatIR for Indian and Pacific oceans. Cannot believe how cloud free the equator zone is across both oceans right now.

Can only assume that MJO is null?
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 22/02/2019 12:18

The MJO after spending a lot of time at phase 8 has kicked the SOI sharply negative. But the MJO models have a consensus that the MJO will resume strongly in the Indian Ocean in about 3 weeks time.

The cool water below Nino1.2 looks set to surface over coming days IMO. But trades being weak out that way, might mean the cool waters wont flow towards Nino.3, hence no (or minimal) impact on the El Nino-like set up that seems to have been developing over the past 2 weeks.

Closer to home TC Oma has cooled the Pacific out E of the Sunshine Coast at 160E down to 25C. You would think Oma would tend to steer northwards over warmer water if it isnt set to fizzle?
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 24/02/2019 11:33

EQ Pacific is cloud free except through the Nino.4 zone (ENSO neutral zone), but tropical activity is picking up in the Indian Ocean going by the latest SatIR image.

The MJO has been more dominant than the warm waters in Nino.4/Nino3.4 for Australia's tropical climate for several months now. Last 3 weeks of March will be interesting to see if any rain events can make it down into the dry regions (if the AAO joins into the game).
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 24/02/2019 11:54

Going to need to be a strong serious MJO given it’s practically March and we’re already seeing a more zonal pattern establishing which would confine any real drivers to far northern Aus.
Posted by: RC

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 24/02/2019 12:09



I am wondering is weak El Nino's/warm neutrals have a far greater impact on Queensland summer rainfall then strong El Nino's.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 24/02/2019 12:15

Originally Posted By: RC


I am wondering is weak El Nino's/warm neutrals have a far greater impact on Queensland summer rainfall then strong El Nino's.


I’d agree and I suspect it’s because there’s no dominant pattern - whereas with strong responses the swing back tends to be strong as well.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 24/02/2019 13:17

82 / 83 debunks that. Though I do agree there is nothing driving things at the moment.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 24/02/2019 18:40

Agree all. Hanging out hoping the next MJO passage not only delivers rain for some, but moreso, initiates some kind of reset to this Aus rain-unfriendly climatic set up we've been exposed to for so bloody long. frown
Posted by: RC

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 24/02/2019 21:01

Be interesting to see if there are any effects from the westerly wind burst.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 24/02/2019 21:24

Originally Posted By: ColdFront
82 / 83 debunks that. Though I do agree there is nothing driving things at the moment.


With respect, one season doesn’t debunk it - could be an outlier etc.

Look at 96/97 mega Niño straight into the mega 98/99 Nina.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 24/02/2019 21:36

The comment suggested warm neutral has a stronger impact than strong nino. 82/83 shows that's not always the case. I doubt the warm neutral is the issue but rarther how far west the warming extends. There is no troughing from WA whatsoever . I posted up an article a while back about the Indian Ocean impact on 2018. I still suspect it's the issue . I also read a paper recently that conditions in the Eastern Indian Ocean are not exclusively tied to ENSO as some have claimed (ningaloo).
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 24/02/2019 22:54

Originally Posted By: ColdFront
The comment suggested warm neutral has a stronger impact than strong nino. 82/83 shows that's not always the case. I doubt the warm neutral is the issue but rarther how far west the warming extends. There is no troughing from WA whatsoever . I posted up an article a while back about the Indian Ocean impact on 2018. I still suspect it's the issue . I also read a paper recently that conditions in the Eastern Indian Ocean are not exclusively tied to ENSO as some have claimed (ningaloo).


Ahhhhh my bad, ok thanks.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 25/02/2019 08:01

Originally Posted By: ColdFront
I also read a paper recently that conditions in the Eastern Indian Ocean are not exclusively tied to ENSO as some have claimed (ningaloo).


Pretty sure no one has claimed that. There is obviously an influence, probably both directions.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 25/02/2019 09:11

Current WWB is clearly moving the warmest water further east. However overall surface warmth is close to steady - so we may see cooling as the MJO swings around to La Nina friendly zones. There also appears to be some westerly activity in the far east. Trade winds in this region are usually weakly opposite to the general ENSO trend, and anomalies are usually much weaker than west and central regions.



What is also noticeable is that there seems to be significant upwelling occurring along the equator. This can be seen as the subsurface warm pool is becoming largely split north and south of the equator through the central Pacific. Cool subsurface is more dominant in the far east. In the far west there seems to be some downwelling, but focused a little south of the equator and not particularly strong. I can't see any reason why there should be upwelling.



CFS has had a substantial change in its forecast and now wants a moderate el nino to build through the year. Looking at details it seems to think that westerly activity will be quite strong through March and April. Current short term forecasts and MJO suggests trades will return to near normal at the start of March. Last MJO passage through the La Nina zones was quite quick and a repeat might see the CFS forecast validate if westerlies are strong later in March.



CFS is however a noteable outlier with most models forecasting not much to happen for the rest of the year, although it was more consistent with other model forecasts before this WWB occurred. It will be interesting to see if the next updates from other models follow CFS or not.

Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 25/02/2019 09:12

Originally Posted By: Kino
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
The comment suggested warm neutral has a stronger impact than strong nino. 82/83 shows that's not always the case. I doubt the warm neutral is the issue but rarther how far west the warming extends. There is no troughing from WA whatsoever . I posted up an article a while back about the Indian Ocean impact on 2018. I still suspect it's the issue . I also read a paper recently that conditions in the Eastern Indian Ocean are not exclusively tied to ENSO as some have claimed (ningaloo).


Ahhhhh my bad, ok thanks.


No worries Kino. From my observation only and nothing concrete I also believe thunderstorm activity is better during warm neutral Summers in Qld but that hasn't been the case much of this one. There is simply no moisture coming across from the west.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 25/02/2019 10:59

MJO model consensus shows the next MJO pulse through to Indonesia to be a strong one mid next week. Still too early to make a call on how long it will linger around for.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 25/02/2019 11:04

Ventrice is exited about it. I think we need a proper defined ElNino to bust this mundane climate pattern .
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 25/02/2019 11:37

Yep, the SST at MJO zone 3 is about the hottest in the world at the moment, ...and tending warmer than cooler last week or so.
Posted by: RC

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 25/02/2019 15:07

Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Ventrice is exited about it. I think we need a proper defined ElNino to bust this mundane climate pattern .


The super El Nino we had a couple of years ago never burst anything. Never had a big La Nina follow it. In fact it has overall been dryish before the super El Nino and after it.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 25/02/2019 17:04

Yes that is true. But as been discussed here numerous times, there is something bigger than ENSO at play at the moment.
Posted by: Long Road Home

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 25/02/2019 17:35

The strong la nina burst into that 'super' el nino, so unlikely you'd get another big La nina to follow after the record 2010-2012 event. The current state will most likely transition to neutral, but be a while before there's another strong La nina.

A mass of storms forming over the eastern inland atm, probably helped by extra moisture from the flood waters. SST's are still significantly high over the Tasman and increasing to the NW of the country. This is the first time in a while that strong highs have settled to the S of the country, finally sending moisture inland where needed.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 25/02/2019 21:42

I'm not sure why anyone managed to get a mention of strong LaNina out of my post.
Posted by: Mega

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 26/02/2019 00:36

Thought I'd just leave this here. Tweet from @philklotzbach: Supertyphoon #Wutip now has max winds of 160 mph - making it the strongest February #typhoon on record (since 1950). Previous record was Higos in 2015 at 150 mph.

https://t.co/h2E7y2y1or
Posted by: weatherhobbiest

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 26/02/2019 04:57

Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Yes that is true. But as been discussed here numerous times, there is something bigger than ENSO at play at the moment.


Does anyone have any ideas as to what that something might be?
Posted by: Flowin

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 26/02/2019 08:29

It is notable that AAO has dropped from +2 to -2.5 in a 14 day period. Such large fluctuations within a 14 day period only happen every few years or so.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 26/02/2019 08:49

GFS forecasting trades to surge over the next week. Extended GFS suggests trades will get stronger in the second week. EC is forecasting weaker trades, similar to previous passages of MJO through the La Nina side.



The forecast for Autumn is tricky. Typically Modoki impact is strongest in Autumn. However there is clearly some movement away from Modoki with western warm pool weakening and moving further east, and the far east continuing to warm despite unfavorable subsurface. Westerly anomalies moving into the central and east Pacific is more like a classic el nino, however this is clearly at least partly MJO related, and cloudiness anomalies seem to be anchored near the dateline.



A significant trade wind surge may put the pattern more into a classic el nino breakdown pattern which brings average to above average rainfall starting late summer/autumn.

I think the next couple weeks will be quite critical with an opportunity for a trade wind surge that might push things towards the cool side. If we get westerly dominance in March as monthly CFS forecasts then we are probably on the path towards a substantial el nino for the rest of the year.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 26/02/2019 13:24

Agree Mike, albiet a bit lukewarm on the modaki side of things.



Cant wait to see what happens with the MJO arrives at Indonesia.
Posted by: Seina

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 26/02/2019 14:56

#1490443 - 15/02/2019 03:47:

Originally Posted By: marakai
So basically water vapour absorbs way more IR heat than CO2 ever can right ?


My previous post was a hypothesis/theory (more-or-less with the loop closed)...and an extension of the Clausius-Clapeyron Theory. The mechanism mentioned is what gives water-vapour the opportunity (or ability) to form in the troposphere at a given ambient tropospheric temperature. The Clausius-Clapeyron equation, in layman's terms, states the saturation vapour-pressure increases proportionally -- indeed, exponentially -- with the ambient air temperature.

Enjoy smile ...
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 26/02/2019 20:42

Proportionally ....indeed exponentially

Hmm
Posted by: Seina

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 26/02/2019 21:16

Proportionally because the saturation vapour-pressure is an exponential function of the air temperature, and the latent-heat of vaporisation is squared. Those details are can be found through research!
Posted by: ashestoashes

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 26/02/2019 21:27

Given all this modoki talk this looks very consistent with an El Nino modoki as shown in the map above of OLR anomalies, NW Australia left high and dry when it should be monsoon season while West Pac is strongly in a negative anomaly. While West Coast America gets slammed by Atmospheric rivers.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 27/02/2019 09:31

CPC shows a significant build of subsurface heat over the last month or so and a substantial warm Kelvin wave in progress.



TAO however seems to disagree.



TAO is obs, and CPC I believe is a mix of Obs and modelling. It would seem more likely the modelling has gone wrong. However the build up shown by CPC makes more sense given recent surface winds, presumably why the modelling shows it.

It is always possible that observations can be wrong, however it seems unlikely as this would require multiple buoys to be going wrong in the same direction at the same time.

I would assume the CPC data is used in the CFS prediction, currently predicting a moderate el nino in contrast to most other models, and that CFS may be inflating its forecast due to an overly warm estimate of the subsurface.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 27/02/2019 18:43

Mike its not the 200M/300M depth discrepancy?
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 27/02/2019 19:42

Well little is going to change in this graphic by 9.00am tomorrow so Jan and February failed to deliver a modoki response in the NT as per the green areas in the "modoki impact" map below . Where the green extends to the western Cape York coastal region it is just as dire.

The warmest anomalies in the western Pacific were further west last year (and even now) than where Jamstec located them in the central pacific in their original Modoki research so there is zero logic in suggesting the impact moved east. Partuclarly given there was little difference in the warmest ocean surface temps and much of the rest of the equator all the way to the coast of South Africa. Maybe it should be called the "modoki" modoki. It was similar to a modoki but not the same . Maybe jamstec could adopt that to avoid further confusion. But then when the cold water is missing either side of the warm pool it isn't even similar. El Mockery Modoki for sure. Perhaps BoM changed their guidelines due to how ridiculously abused the modoki definition has become?









Current ocean temps reflect the breakdown of warmer than average sea surface temps pushing west as expected in February, however it may be short lived with modelling suggesting a return to warmer than average equatorial surface temps this year. There is of course the predictability barrier to cross, but then the past few years even that has proved to be invalid.


Interesting tug of war near the thermocline.

Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 27/02/2019 21:58

Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Well little is going to change in this graphic by 9.00am tomorrow so Jan and February failed to deliver a modoki response in the NT as per the green areas in the "modoki impact" map below . Where the green extends to the western Cape York coastal region it is just as dire.


Modoki is not defined by its impact on NT rainfall. Note that the diagram shows substantial impact in western Qld which you chose to ignore. Also of note is that the impacts of an east based el nino this time of year are pretty much restricted to the far NE coast of Qld. So modoki half matches the rainfall patterns in Australia. East based doesn't match at all.

Atmospheric circulation anomalies for Australia where quite similar to what is expected in Modoki. Trade winds in Western Pacific were similar. Cloudiness anomalies were similar.


The warmest anomalies in the western Pacific were further west last year (and even now) than where Jamstec located them in the central pacific in their original Modoki research so there is zero logic in suggesting the impact moved east. [/quote]
Warmest anomalies are straddling the dateline and almost perfectly match the classic Modoki pattern of warmest anomalies straddling the dateline.



Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Partuclarly given there was little difference in the warmest ocean surface temps and much of the rest of the equator all the way to the coast of South Africa. Maybe it should be called the "modoki" modoki. It was similar to a modoki but not the same . Maybe jamstec could adopt that to avoid further confusion. But then when the cold water is missing either side of the warm pool it isn't even similar.


Same as every other year that has been classified as a Modoki (except for a couple months in 2004, and also a couple months earlier in this event when we had genuine cool anomalies in the west.

The only difference between current conditions and the typical modoki event is the area of warm water in the far east. So far the atmosphere shows little sign of responding to this warm water - westerly anomalies have shown some penetration into the central and east pacific which is east based el nino like over the last week or two, but cloudiness remains anchored modoki like near the dateline. Perhaps the east will continue to warm, and perhaps atmospheric indicators will show further progression towards an east based pattern. But so far modoki is clearly a much better match for current conditions than an east based el nino.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 28/02/2019 08:18

Rainfall during February 2005, 2004/2005 being the textbook modoki event.



During 2010 the rainfall anomalies were displaced somewhat further east similar to this year but not to the same extent.



What is interesting looking at rainfall in other Modoki years is that normally heavy rain in the tropics is accompanied by heavier rain further south, as in the 2010 case, whereas this year it was pure tropical.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 28/02/2019 08:26

Those rainfall maps are nothing alike. As well, the paper you posted previously relying on Modoki definition quite clearly shows above average rainfall response across the northern Tropical areas which simply hasn’t happened. Added to that the requirement for colder SST’s in Niño 1 which also didn’t happen.
Posted by: Mega

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 28/02/2019 08:36

This has honestly turned into a d!ck measuring contest about who is right about "Modoki" more than an anything else. I've already said my piece on it and that is I personally do not think it fits the Modoki criteria. I just don't see the need to keep pushing and pushing.

Dunno why we can't just leave it at that.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 28/02/2019 09:14

Originally Posted By: Kino
Those rainfall maps are nothing alike.

The February rainfall pattern is clearly closer to the typical modoki pattern than 2004/2005, which was clearly a modoki year.


Quote:
Added to that the requirement for colder SST’s in Niño 1 which also didn’t happen.


Nino 1 and 2 have been +ve for the majority of past modoki events.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 28/02/2019 09:22

Actually it's not Mega. I don't see his posts anymore. After his attacks on Ken Kato in the SEQ thread I decided to use the ignore option for the first time in years. What I do know is that I rate Ken Kato infinitely higher for credibility and knowledge along with BoM and NOAA. I can safely say those 3 knew BoM declared 2017 a LaNina year. None of them are trying to settle an old score either. The attacks on Ken's rainfall information smacked of envy at the level of respect held for Ken in that thread and were quite extraordinary. I suspect the people of Townsville would agree with Ken about the exceptional nature of the event. The response was embarrassing and entirely uncalled for.

It doesn't matter who the author is, when you sternly try to claim that what you are posting is fact with zero room for anyone else's differing opinion and yet your content continually contains words like " possibly , perhaps or maybe" to justify why it did happen the way you said it would then something is very much on the nose.

I do not have and never have had an agenda on climate or that for forbidden topic that goes with it and am personally sick of people trying to pass opinion as fact to bring one side or the other into the argument. I have an opinion like most people on the topic but it has never been shared here. It was banned for good reason.

My post is simply a response to the outcome of Summer and mischievous claims made last year. In December when there was some similarity on rainfall patterns over the NT it was jumped on as proof of the existence of Modoki impact with the maps above rolled out quick smart. January and February share no resemblance whatsoever . There was no " short and intense" monsoon over Darwin.

The ningaloo nina and associated blocking pattern will come under much more scrutiny from global agencies than the pacific regarding the 2018 climate outcome, coupled with its positive IOD. Even when BoM released an article regarding the Indian Ocean's impact on our climate in 2018 it was dismissed by Mike along with several periodic remarks on lack of coupling requirement to meet ENSO standard. At some point you have to say enough is enough .

Moving on, it is ironic that the rebound that typically begins to occur in Summer has seen the SOI head the wrong way. Finally something resembling an atmospheric response about 6 months out of whack. 2019 will be interesting.

Posted by: Flowin

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 28/02/2019 09:30

Part of the problem here is also people looking at the data and trying to claim the season, month, or current situation with drivers fits with pre-conceived "status of climate" from past research of limited occurrences. It is all very complex. Their needs to be more open mindedness that sometimes current climate does not fit human created ideas of the climate drivers being in distinct status or labels.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 28/02/2019 09:34

Originally Posted By: Flowin
Part of the problem here is also people looking at the data and trying to claim the season, month, or current situation with drivers fits with pre-conceived "status of climate" from past research of limited occurrences. It is all very complex. Their needs to be more open mindedness that sometimes current climate does not fit human created ideas of the climate drivers being in distinct status or labels.


Amen to that. This has been the position of most here I feel. Whereas one or two try to squeeze current events into existing rules where there are no set rules. It's climate and therefore it is chaos. It is entitled to NOT conform.

The lack of ElNino last year proved that it is not just about WWB's and the excuses about there not being enough were ridiculous. The warming extending along the equator all the way to Africa was ignored out of hand because it did not fit the rules. The fact that there was barely half a degree difference between the western and central pacific was never factored due to agenda yet ironically never did fit the rules regarding modoki
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 28/02/2019 09:49

Originally Posted By: ColdFront
I suspect the people of Townsville would agree with Ken about the exceptional nature of the event. The response was embarrassing and entirely uncalled for.


I always agreed that the event in Townsville was exceptional. The issue was whether the event on a large scale was exceptional.

Originally Posted By: ColdFront

It doesn't matter who the author is, when you sternly try to claim that what you are posting is fact with zero room for anyone else's differing opinion and yet your content continually contains words like " possibly , perhaps or maybe" to justify why it did happen the way you said it would then something is very much on the nose.


Yes my words usually contain words like maybe or possibly. What is on the nose is your continued misrepresentation of what I post to claim certainty.

I do not have and never have had an agenda on climate or that for forbidden topic that goes with it and am personally sick of people trying to pass opinion as fact to bring one side or the other into the argument. I have an opinion like most people on the topic but it has never been shared here. It was banned for good reason.

Quote:
In December when there was some similarity on rainfall patterns over the NT it was jumped on as proof of the existence of Modoki impact with the maps above rolled out quick smart.


More like you jumped on the December rainfall pattern as proof of non-el nino, and I poinsted out there were similarities to a modoki pattern. Rainfall in Australia is not now and has never been proof of ENSO status.

Quote:
Even when BoM released an article regarding the Indian Ocean's impact on our climate in 2018 it was dismissed by Mike


When the media released a statement claiming that the BOM climate statement was that he Indian Ocean was the dominant factor I pointed out what was actually in the BOM climate statement, which said no such thing.
Posted by: CoastalStorm22

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 28/02/2019 12:04

CF, so you think there might be a link between the Ningaloo Nina and the blocking patter over the Tasman the past few summers?

I look forward to reading any studies those global agencies publish on this subject. It will be interesting to see if the same pattern emerges again next Nov/Dec, surely odds would be against it happening 4 summers on the trot!
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 28/02/2019 12:54

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Rainfall during February 2005, 2004/2005 being the textbook modoki event.



During 2010 the rainfall anomalies were displaced somewhat further east similar to this year but not to the same extent.



What is interesting looking at rainfall in other Modoki years is that normally heavy rain in the tropics is accompanied by heavier rain further south, as in the 2010 case, whereas this year it was pure tropical.


With the record low rainfall event in Victoria still entrenched, going by those charts, we would love a text book modaki down this way!
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 28/02/2019 13:00

Originally Posted By: CoastalStorm22
CF, so you think there might be a link between the Ningaloo Nina and the blocking patter over the Tasman the past few summers?

I look forward to reading any studies those global agencies publish on this subject. It will be interesting to see if the same pattern emerges again next Nov/Dec, surely odds would be against it happening 4 summers on the trot!


It would appear so CS. No push from the west. Hopefully you are right about odds.
Posted by: Seabreeze

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 28/02/2019 13:50

Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Well little is going to change in this graphic by 9.00am tomorrow so Jan and February failed to deliver a modoki response in the NT as per the green areas in the "modoki impact" map below . Where the green extends to the western Cape York coastal region it is just as dire.

The warmest anomalies in the western Pacific were further west last year (and even now) than where Jamstec located them in the central pacific in their original Modoki research so there is zero logic in suggesting the impact moved east. Partuclarly given there was little difference in the warmest ocean surface temps and much of the rest of the equator all the way to the coast of South Africa. Maybe it should be called the "modoki" modoki. It was similar to a modoki but not the same . Maybe jamstec could adopt that to avoid further confusion. But then when the cold water is missing either side of the warm pool it isn't even similar. El Mockery Modoki for sure. Perhaps BoM changed their guidelines due to how ridiculously abused the modoki definition has become?









Current ocean temps reflect the breakdown of warmer than average sea surface temps pushing west as expected in February, however it may be short lived with modelling suggesting a return to warmer than average equatorial surface temps this year. There is of course the predictability barrier to cross, but then the past few years even that has proved to be invalid.


Interesting tug of war near the thermocline.
Those year-to-date rainfall maps compare the rainfall for the year-to-date to the entire annual average. It's a shame though they're not calculated for the year-to-date period and then compared to how many months into the year you are (e.g. Jan-Feb average, Jan-Aug average etc.), because otherwise you can only gauge year-to-date rainfall three times during the year on their rainfall maps (3 month map Jan-Mar, 6 month map Jan-Jun, and 9 month map Jan-Sep).



(It's the month-to-date to Feb 24th, as the same accidental mistake was made in the SEQLD/NENSW thread the other day and the map has changed little since then).
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 28/02/2019 14:05

Thanks Seabreeze. You are quite right. I recall reading similar a couple of years back but had forgotten. Nonetheless month on month shows major deficiencies in the NT , particularly in February.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 01/03/2019 08:47

Strong MJO signal forecast to amplify through La Nina friendly Indian Ocean zones.



Unfortunately not coming near Australia in this forecast.

Delivery of moisture from Pacific into the north half of Australia looks much better in the next couple weeks, but doesn't seem to be much forecast that can make use of this moisture at the moment. Westerly anomalies are forecast to continue in central and east Pacific, although not strong, which could continue to see a move away from Modoki conditions towards a more east based el nino.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 01/03/2019 11:40

Agree Mike, however I feel that the your forecast above will result in neutral SOI/Nino conditions to continue.

I reckon this MJO chart reflect the average of all todays forecasts:



What I see is:

* MJO to arrive strongly at Indonesia in a weeks time, then go null over central Indonesia over the following week
* The only cloud over EQ Pacific is over the western half of Nino.4
* The EQ Pacific trades look to be recovering today, and are likely to be quite uniform right through to West Nino.4 by the end of next week
* Nino1.2 SST has cooled to a cool anomaly atm, and has cool waters likely to emerge from under it with the return of trade wind strengths

Which, to me should result in the SOI quickly returning from its strong -ve state to return to neutral by 7 days time (remembering this indicator is a 30 day average).

....resulting in warmer SST around Aus NW waters, and the door open for a tropical storm off Aus NW coast over the next 2 weeks.
Posted by: lurker

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 01/03/2019 14:35

I get worried when I see that MJO forecast. Maybe I am totally confused on my reading of the MJO.

Isn't the actual definition of the MJO, is a wave that can ONLY travel in one direction? Therefore how can a forecast model have it travel backwards? Is the forecast models that rubbish or am I mistaken?

I am happy for the signal to "disappear" because the model is only really reporting on the confidence of where the signal is, not the strength. Disappearing may indicate that the MJO is indistinguishable from a monsoon trough in 14 days time, or similar.

Does anyone know?
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 01/03/2019 14:49

Lurker, start with a look at historical MJO tracks over past summers.
Posted by: lurker

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 01/03/2019 18:19

@Petros - Doesn't really help me. The BOM for the last year has periods of it moving it backwards (west) briefly.

Is the "moving backwards" a recalculation of where the MJO actually is? But if thats so, why would a model incorporate errors into forecasts?

The MJO researcher who used to occasionally post had this to say (2006/2007 thread)

"When the Phase is in or near the centre circle the index is having trouble 'seeing' the MJO.

Thats because the tropics is s busy place for convection, & even though the MJO has distinctive characteristics, it can still be hard to 'pull' out of the background noise.
It pays to be cautious when the MJO pops out of the middle, behind itself. Anti-clockwise, erratic movements indicate somehting else is being picked up laong wih MJO.

Signal strength- ok; that does indicate MJO strength but not the strength of the impact (on rainfall, the monsoon etc)"

I assume Lexi knows more than us about the MJO. So still confused why a forecast model would have anti-clockwise movementts.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 01/03/2019 18:47

Lurker, go back to post #.....721 a page back, the MJO tracked westwards only a couple of weeks ago??
Posted by: Funkyseefunkydo

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 01/03/2019 19:02

Lurker of the night.🙃
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 01/03/2019 22:30

Originally Posted By: lurker
@Petros - Doesn't really help me. The BOM for the last year has periods of it moving it backwards (west) briefly.

Is the "moving backwards" a recalculation of where the MJO actually is? But if thats so, why would a model incorporate errors into forecasts?

The MJO researcher who used to occasionally post had this to say (2006/2007 thread)

"When the Phase is in or near the centre circle the index is having trouble 'seeing' the MJO.

Thats because the tropics is s busy place for convection, & even though the MJO has distinctive characteristics, it can still be hard to 'pull' out of the background noise.
It pays to be cautious when the MJO pops out of the middle, behind itself. Anti-clockwise, erratic movements indicate somehting else is being picked up laong wih MJO.

Signal strength- ok; that does indicate MJO strength but not the strength of the impact (on rainfall, the monsoon etc)"

I assume Lexi knows more than us about the MJO. So still confused why a forecast model would have anti-clockwise movementts.



I’m with you for 2 reasons:

- the MJO can’t go backwards as it’s a surge of westerlies, which of course can only head in one direction. What DOES and CAN happen is that the westerlies can ‘pile up’ into tropical systems which is what the model may forecast,
- I still think the MJO forecast is reactive and not predictive which is why it struggles with amplitude such as that forecast clearly has
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 02/03/2019 07:28

BOM defines the MJO as

Quote:
The MJO can be characterized as an eastward moving "pulse" of cloud and rainfall near the equator that typically recurs every 30 to 60 days.


The MJO index measures the location of the strongest cloud and rainfall. The MJO has specific processes associated with it that tend to move the cloud/rainfall pulse to the east. However other processes can and do cause equatorial cloud/rain to move from east to west.

When backwards movement occurs it can be said that the MJO is no longer active. Then once the cloud/rain area moves east again it is the MJO again, and it commences from however far west the area of cloud/rain had moved.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 02/03/2019 12:24

That's right Kino. Eastward only for the MJO.
Posted by: lurker

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 02/03/2019 22:01

@Mike,

Again just asking questions here. Because I am lost.

Some of the definitions talk about a ~5 m/s westward propagating wave. I haven't seen any that say that it stops (or goes backwards). Regardless, the *forecasts* have backward movement, are you saying they are forecasting the loss of signal (or pause?) then a westward movement?

I can understand the human interpretation of the signal having backward movement because a human makes a mistake and thinks some convective activity west of the actual MJO is part of the MJO, only to discover in a few days that that convective activity isn't related; but surely a *forecasting* model would not have human error built into it.

Happy for further discussion as I may be just daft.
Posted by: MOUNTAIN h2o

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 02/03/2019 22:30

I find it astonishing that all this back and forth verbal tennis match on here leads to no conclusive outcome.
One thing is certain though it's bloody hot .
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 03/03/2019 07:58

Have a read up on Rossby waves .
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 03/03/2019 20:09

This is a good (MJO sub-conversation), very interested in all comments.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/03/2019 09:30

Originally Posted By: lurker
@Mike,

Again just asking questions here. Because I am lost.

Some of the definitions talk about a ~5 m/s westward propagating wave. I haven't seen any that say that it stops (or goes backwards). Regardless, the *forecasts* have backward movement, are you saying they are forecasting the loss of signal (or pause?) then a westward movement?

I can understand the human interpretation of the signal having backward movement because a human makes a mistake and thinks some convective activity west of the actual MJO is part of the MJO, only to discover in a few days that that convective activity isn't related; but surely a *forecasting* model would not have human error built into it.

Happy for further discussion as I may be just daft.



From my reading on MJO it seems there is not a full understanding yet of what the MJO actually is.

For example, this paper states

Quote:
Despite the widespread importance of the MJO, present-day computer general circulation models (GCMs) typically have poor representations of it (Lin et al. 2006; Kim et al. 2009). Moreover, simple theories for the MJO have also been largely unsuccessful, both in explaining the MJO’s fundamental mechanisms and in reproducing all of its fundamental features together. There have been a large number of theories attempting to explain the MJO through mechanisms such as evaporation–wind feedback (Emanuel 1987; Neelin et al. 1987), boundary layer frictional convergence instability (Wang and Rui 1990), stochastic linearized convection (Salby et al. 1994), radiation instability (Raymond 2001), and the planetary-scale linear response to moving heat sources (Chao 1987). These theories are all at odds with the observational record in various crucial ways (Lau and Waliser 2005; Zhang 2005), and it is therefore likely that none of them captures the fundamental physical mechanisms of the MJO. Nevertheless, they all provide some insight into the mechanisms of the MJO.


The paper is from 2011, so there may be something better out there, but I have not found it so far.

The MJO index does not exactly capture the MJO, but it does measure something quite similar to the MJO. It measures the patterns of wind circulations, and cloudiness, and matches this to the ideal MJO that is most similar. This something does move westward as well as eastward, not just in forecasts, but in observations:



Now either this something captured by the index is an approximation of the true MJO which moves close to where the index is, but never moves backwards. Or the true MJO really does move backwards from time to time. Seeing as we don't seem to fully understand the MJO, I don't think we can say which is true.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/03/2019 10:08

I've had a look at the BoM's archive of 90 day MJO plots over the Jan to Mar period going back a few years. I noticed that in years like 2006, 2013, 2017, 2018, when the MJO position is outside of the centre circle through much of January and February (I take the centre circle as meaning the MJO is weak and not discernible) that the MJO in those years returns to the circle (i.e. is weak) towards the end of March.

The MJO ensemble forecasts across different models are often widespread and often do not show much consensus at all beyond about a week or ten days ahead. But in the current MJO forecasts there appears to be more consensus among the models that a weakening MJO back towards the centre circle is looking likely, and that would be consistent with the previous years I mention above.

Just an observation, I am not an expert on MJO.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/03/2019 10:09

MJO is looking strong out in central Indian ocean going by the SatIR. Pacific has now returned to a similar easterly trades situation to that of a month back, will cool the Nino3/3.4 regions over the next week I'd think. Nino1.2 has only a veneer of warm water covering a decent cool subsurface profile, I'd expect that zone to cool over the next few days given the fresh SE'lies now established above it.

SOI remain strongly negative.

All adds up to "more of the same" in my book, with one exception: the Quidge is not in place, nor expected to for the next 8 days or so. Hope that helps rain chances for QLD/NSW.
Posted by: lurker

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/03/2019 11:37

So NOAA mentions eastward propagation of the MJO in these slides.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/03/2019 18:27

The trades are very strong along the Pacific EQ region from the equator Nth to 5degN - will be interesting to see what happens to the Pacific SSL anomaly chart, and SST across Nth Aus into Indonesia over the coming 4-5 days:
Posted by: Funkyseefunkydo

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/03/2019 18:31

Looks non existent on ascat.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/03/2019 08:42

The recent WWB has finished, except for weak westerly anomalies persisting in the east. There continues to be substantial warming in central and east regions and weakening of the warm pool near the dateline.



SST pattern is becoming steadily less modoki like, and central (3.4) and eastern (3) nino indexes are now overtaking the dateline index (4):

nino 4: 0.78
nino 3.4: 0.8
nino 3: 0.92

Westerly anomalies extending into the central and eastern Pacific is much more east based than modoki like. Cloudiness over the longer term is still mostly anchored modoki like to the dateline, however the latest 1 day cloudiness shows substantial anomalies spreading well east of the dateline. One day of course is only 1 day, but it may be the start of a trend towards a more east based cloudiness pattern.



In the subsurface TAO has warmed somewhat, and is now more consistent with the NOAA values.



There is still a window with the MJO in the Indian regions for disruption of the current el nino conditions, but so far nothing significant seems to be coming of this. If we don't see a significant cool Kelvin wave out of this then we would appear to be headed towards the CFS forecast of a steadily building el nino throughout the year, but hopefully more east based which might at least allow an Autumn break of the generally dry conditions.

If we build steadily into a moderate el nino the situation is then like 86/87/88 and 14/15/16 where weak el nino/warm neutral conditions built through the first year into a stronger event in the second. In contrast other back to back el ninos such as 02-05 and 91-95 featured substantial breakdown of warm SST conditions during Autumn.

Rainfall conditions for Autumn in 87 and 15 suggest dry conditions are more likely during Autumn 2nd year of a 2 year event, but its a very small sample.



Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 06/03/2019 10:19

Todays SatIR confirms the MJO now arriving into W Indonesia as most MJO modelling predicted. Clear sky is evident over the Indian Ocean over NW Aus, and the SST chart shows the ocean warming up there (imo partially due to less cool ocean currents heading up past the NW Cape over past week).

MJO models now predict the MJO will be strong over central Indonesia in a couple of days time, then slowly die out without moving eastwards into the Aus region.

The long range models show a tropical storm to develop up near Darwin in 4-6 days time - and I for one reckon they are on the money.
Posted by: ashestoashes

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 06/03/2019 22:52

Crikey Would you look at all that PW sitting of the West Coast.


But then knowing our luck atm, I just had to head to the mjo forecast. Basically stopping dead in its tracks before AUS, might come in as Darwin's worst wet season ever.


Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 07/03/2019 08:45

If MJO goes Null over Indonesia, there is no mechanism for kill off the PW NW of Aus, esp. if the trades along the Pacific Equator and the region to 5 deg N of it continue to deliver warm water currents into MJO phase 5 zone/130E imo.
Posted by: Cutofflow

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 07/03/2019 12:08

Don't expect the Pacific to cool off any time soon, hot autumn SST's on their way. Looking like another +IOD again this year
Posted by: ashestoashes

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 07/03/2019 13:50

Wait, I don't get how we're going to have another +IOD year, because this MJO stuck just before zone 4 means that a lot of warm water is shifted our way, which is being seen currently.
Along with this when we start to head towards winter the Cape Leeuwin current starts up pushing the warm water polewards, eliminated the cold anomalies in the areas out of the tropics.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 07/03/2019 16:24

Not sure how one arrives at a +IOD because the Pacific is warm? Bizarre.
Posted by: CoastalStorm22

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 07/03/2019 16:45

I hope not, if we don't get some decent rain through western parts before winter we will all be choking on dust every time a vigorous front pushes through. Yuck.

I quick check of JAMSTEC does show another +IOD in spring, but still to far out to draw any concrete conclusions.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 08/03/2019 09:31

IOD:

Warm Pacific often (not always) leads to a +ve IOD. Models are leaning towards a +ve IOD forecast for winter, but not strongly enough to consider it locked in. Current warm water in eastern Indian Ocean follows a period of quiet, allowing slack winds and plenty of sunshine to warm things up, and the current MJO will push up winds and cloud and cool things down again. IOD cannot get into any sustained phase this time of year as warm water result in enhanced monsoon activity and cooling, and vice versa.

ENSO:

NASA has now joined CFS in forecasting a moderate to strong el nino. Previously this was the only model forecasting cool neutral conditions to develop later this year. This model used to have forecast skill stats near the top of all models, but I don't think it has been upgraded as GFS and EC have.



Other models are still mostly forecasting a warm neutral maybe slowly cooling, but for the most part haven't been updated since recent strong westerly activity.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 08/03/2019 10:05

Cloud free region off NW WA continues to see water temps increase out that way, possibly helped by the fresh trades over the EQ Pacific to 10 deg N of the equator over past week or so - trades in the Pacific region noted are set to be in place for a week or more by model predictions on Windy site.

With MJO set to die out (or linger weakly) in the Indonesia region, the SST off NW WA, now equal hottest of all sea temps, should allow formation of tropical storms over coming days imo.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 08/03/2019 10:16

Originally Posted By: Kino
Not sure how one arrives at a +IOD because the Pacific is warm? Bizarre.


There is no proven link ,only a belief by some agencies that there MAY be one. -IOD with ElNino is believed to diminish the impact of ElNino.

As for ElNino, we are in an increasingly likely transition to ElNino with a large area of +5 degree anomalies along the thermocline in the eastern Pacific ,although BoM's sub-surface data is quite out of step with NOAA's.. Personally I think it's a matter of when rather than if an ElNino is declared if the NOAA information is accurate, though there is the matter of the predictability barrier and emerging ElNino is harder to lock in than LaNina at this time of year.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 08/03/2019 11:01

Multiple research papers have shown that ENSO has a signficant impact on IOD. The main mechanism for ENSO impact on rainfall in SE Australia is via its impact on IOD.

example

Quote:
Recent research has shown that the climatic impact from El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on middle latitudes west of the western Pacific (e.g., southeast Australia) during austral spring (September–November) is conducted via the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO).


and this

Quote:
Impacts on extratropical Australian rainfall during El Niño are argued to stem primarily from the Rossby wave trains forced by convective variations in the Indian Ocean, for which the IOD is a primary source of variability.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 08/03/2019 13:47

Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Originally Posted By: Kino
Not sure how one arrives at a +IOD because the Pacific is warm? Bizarre.


There is no proven link ,only a belief by some agencies that there MAY be one. -IOD with ElNino is believed to diminish the impact of ElNino.

As for ElNino, we are in an increasingly likely transition to ElNino with a large area of +5 degree anomalies along the thermocline in the eastern Pacific ,although BoM's sub-surface data is quite out of step with NOAA's.. Personally I think it's a matter of when rather than if an ElNino is declared if the NOAA information is accurate, though there is the matter of the predictability barrier and emerging ElNino is harder to lock in than LaNina at this time of year.


I forgot to add the link. There are several others but they centre around the same discussion.



https://www.researchgate.net/publication...an_Ocean_Dipole

From the article ....

The existence of IOD in the absence of El Nino has been described in a number of studies in which observed and modeled IODs during non-El Nino years
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 08/03/2019 13:53

...and another worth a read .

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI3797.1
Posted by: Mega

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 08/03/2019 14:03

Looks like the warm pool is winning the battle on the subsurface so far. The cold pool that was building looks to have diminished. FFS. What does it take to get a La-Nina these days?
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 08/03/2019 15:00

NOAAs map shows the warm pool winning. BoMs doesn't.
Posted by: Mega

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 08/03/2019 15:02

Which one of BoM's are you referring to, CF? I use this one.
Posted by: Cutofflow

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 08/03/2019 15:42

I'm at a loss how anyone could consider seeing a -IOD or neutral event in the Indian Ocean this year. The ENSO is the planet's thermostat. There is a huge amount of warm water that's been built up and currently re-building across the earths equator. The Eastern Indian ocean has been completely dead since Feb 2018. There's been nothing but strong S to SW winds up the WA coast all year, combined with stronger than normal SE winds off Sumatra typical of El Nino conditions. These are not good observations for a good, wet winter growing season.

The only saving grace is the AMO has ducked negative and surface fronts might begin to look pretty grunty - which still doesn't help inland parts of SE Australia who rely on the uppers!!
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 08/03/2019 16:28

Originally Posted By: Mega
Which one of BoM's are you referring to, CF? I use this one.


Yeah that one. You're right. I looked at it yesterday and it hasn't updated yet.
Posted by: RC

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 08/03/2019 17:20

Originally Posted By: Mega
Looks like the warm pool is winning the battle on the subsurface so far. The cold pool that was building looks to have diminished. FFS. What does it take to get a La-Nina these days?


Move to the US to reap the benefits of El Nino. Or just blame Trump. grin
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 08/03/2019 19:05

Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Originally Posted By: Mega
Which one of BoM's are you referring to, CF? I use this one.


Yeah that one. You're right. I looked at it yesterday and it hadn't updated yet.


Bolded typo
Posted by: paulcirrus

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 08/03/2019 20:54

No use wanting a la nina,,,,, not going to happen unfortunately. yes i have to say FFS as well. I see the dry going for another year. And seriously i would think about moving if this continued .... to the states. I think the occurrence of dry periods in this country is starting to become a joke actually. Way too many starting to happen for any beneficial habitation of parts of this country
Posted by: RC

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 09/03/2019 13:56

Does not look like the MJO is stalling like what was predicted.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 09/03/2019 18:41

What do you base that observation on RC?

To me, this EC chart typifies the average of MJO model outputs available this afternoon:

Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 09/03/2019 18:48

Originally Posted By: ColdFront
[quote=Kino]

....As for ElNino, we are in an increasingly likely transition to ElNino with a large area of +5 degree anomalies along the thermocline in the eastern Pacific ,although BoM's sub-surface data is quite out of step with NOAA's..


CF, given the present state of the SST anomaly:



What SST regions do you think will change as a result of "+5C +5 degree anomalies along the thermocline in the eastern Pacific?

Not baiting, ...just curious.
Posted by: RC

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 09/03/2019 19:46

Originally Posted By: Petros
What do you base that observation on RC?

To me, this EC chart typifies the average of MJO model outputs available this afternoon:



About five days ago it was predicting the MJO was supposed to be near null by now.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 09/03/2019 20:47

Originally Posted By: Petros
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
[quote=Kino]

....As for ElNino, we are in an increasingly likely transition to ElNino with a large area of +5 degree anomalies along the thermocline in the eastern Pacific ,although BoM's sub-surface data is quite out of step with NOAA's..


CF, given the present state of the SST anomaly:



What SST regions do you think will change as a result of "+5C +5 degree anomalies along the thermocline in the eastern Pacific?

Not baiting, ...just curious.


I am leaning towards a traditional conical warm pattern emerging first on the Sth American coast before spreading back west . I didn't see any baiting in your post.

There is of course the predictability barrier to overcome.
Posted by: Mega

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 10/03/2019 05:38

Does anyone know why the area I've marked seems to be permanently warmer than normal? I've even seen Levi (Tropicaltidbits owner) refer to it before in a negative manner as well.

Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 10/03/2019 07:36

North Pacific Meridional Mode, which has been in warm mode for the last couple of years. Westerly anomalies are caused by weakened subtropical ridge, reducing evaporative cooling and weakening the subtropical ridge. What is interesting is the cool water just to the NW of this region, a switch might be possible. Generally I believe that these anomalies tend to work towards the equator over time, and standard La Nina transition is for cool water north of the equator associated with a strengthened high to work its way south.



Atmospheric patterns show the North Pacific High is quite strong, but displaced towards the north.



Near the equator there are similarities between current conditions and 2015, especially in the subsurface. However in 2015 the el nino was likely boosted by the strong blob of warm water in the NE Pacific.

Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 10/03/2019 12:02

Thanks for the replies CF & RC
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 10/03/2019 12:06

Looks to be an area of tropical convection in central Nino3.4 (150W) going by latest SatIR, ....and that area is presently in the doldrums acc. to the Windy site. Could be significant given there no MJO activity in this region?
Posted by: GringosRain

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 12/03/2019 12:11

Looks to be some very cold water being injected along the equator from north of the equator off south America. Nino 1 + 2 trending lower this year. SOI has tanked all year.
Could we be about to see a flip? That sub surface warm in central pacific isnt that compelling IMO. Mega wet in California, might indicate the top of the wet cycle for them (like our 2010/11 period), moving back our way. El nino doesnt look a given right now IMO, though Id be happy if just moves into Nino or Nina proper....because nada land does us no favours.
Posted by: CoastalStorm22

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 12/03/2019 18:20

Originally Posted By: GringosRain
Looks to be some very cold water being injected along the equator from north of the equator off south America. Nino 1 + 2 trending lower this year. SOI has tanked all year.
Could we be about to see a flip? That sub surface warm in central pacific isnt that compelling IMO. Mega wet in California, might indicate the top of the wet cycle for them (like our 2010/11 period), moving back our way. El nino doesnt look a given right now IMO, though Id be happy if just moves into Nino or Nina proper....because nada land does us no favours.


That sub surface warm pool looks pretty compelling, to me anyways. Although, that up-welling near the SA coast is interesting.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 12/03/2019 20:15

The pacific like the weather is caught in some sort of paradox - the eastern part looks La Niña transition like - while the west looks like a Super El Niño on the way.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 13/03/2019 10:39

Latest Pacific SSL chart shows a higher level dead in the middle of Nino3.4. There is also tropical cloud over this region (has been for 5 days now), and the SOI is strongly negative.

Maybe this is the first hint at some atmospheric coupling to the warm sea temp in Nino3.4? - the start of El Nino?

....counter to this is strong cooling in Nino1.2 and EQ Pacific trades seem to be typical across Nino1.2 all the way into Nino.4. There is also strong trades in Nth EQ Pacific that have been in place for a week which would flood warm water into Indonesia?

I'd say "El Nino warning" is apt for the present conditions.
Posted by: GringosRain

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 13/03/2019 11:13

Originally Posted By: CoastalStorm22
Originally Posted By: GringosRain
Looks to be some very cold water being injected along the equator from north of the equator off south America. Nino 1 + 2 trending lower this year. SOI has tanked all year.
Could we be about to see a flip? That sub surface warm in central pacific isnt that compelling IMO. Mega wet in California, might indicate the top of the wet cycle for them (like our 2010/11 period), moving back our way. El nino doesnt look a given right now IMO, though Id be happy if just moves into Nino or Nina proper....because nada land does us no favours.


That sub surface warm pool looks pretty compelling, to me anyways. Although, that up-welling near the SA coast is interesting.


Normally Id agree re the warm pool, but there has been a lurking warm pool like that for ages now (a year maybe?) and it hasnt seemed to managed to come to the surface in any substantial way in the east. just pulses warmer and then slowly gets eroded. That water coming in of SA is pretty cold, and Nino 1+2 is plummeting. Im thinking that warm pool is going to get chewed up. Kinos comments were right about the way it looks being a paradox...
Posted by: Funkyseefunkydo

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 13/03/2019 16:56

Whoever Dave Taylor is must be taking the piss now. The daily mail again for second year is forecasting a freezing winter.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 14/03/2019 08:27

Weak westerly anomalies have persisted in the central Pacific, reflecting a more canonical el nino pattern, and SSTs have responded with warmest SST anomalies moving from near the dateline into the nino 3.4 region.



Cloudiness also has also spread into the central Pacific in the last couple weeks.



This chart comes from Carl Schreck's site which is used by the Stormsurf site many of us use to generate the westerly chart, but can also generate a couple others. This chart also shows that cloudiness has been persistently anomalous near the dateline since at least December, reflecting a modoki pattern. Forecasts suggest that the cloudiness anomalies east of the dateline may be temporary. Trade wind forecasts also suggest a return to westerly anomalies mostly in the west and enhanced trades central and east, so we may see a return to a more modoki pattern.

The subsurface cool water in the far east is of no consequence and will probably be wiped out by the warm Kelvin Wave. Of more consequence is the subsurface cooling in the far west, and the possibility that this may extend east. But I don't think we've had enough enhanced trades to initiate a cool Kelvin wave.



The unpredictability barrier ends in late Autumn, but based on how long models take to react I suspect that it is driven by conditions in early Autumn, and that the window for any significant change is starting to close.

Trade wind surges in 2014 and 2017 that significantly impacted warming trends from earlier in the year actually occurred substantially later than the predictability period. A change or trend, or just a fluke?
Posted by: pete28

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 14/03/2019 08:44

Originally Posted By: Funkyseefunkydo
Whoever Dave Taylor is must be taking the piss now. The daily mail again for second year is forecasting a freezing winter.


He actually said "Winter will be short but with a very nasty bite" - that's very different to suggesting it will be a freezing winter as a whole lol
Posted by: RC

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 14/03/2019 11:00

Bom has put out their fortnightly rainfall outlook. Big change from the one two months ago, which was low chance for most of the eastern side to near neutral chance.

Problem is coming into April it takes bugger all rain to get to average anyway as the average is so low.

As for the westerly winds. Who on earth do you believe?

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1105786589907697665
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 15/03/2019 12:37

Latest SatIR shows Nino3.4 has gone back to near cloud free, MJO charts show its dissipating to Null over Indonesia. Pacific trades looking pretty much typical. SOI remains very negative.

I guess its all about how tropical storms develop around the warm Aus northern waters over the coming week?
Posted by: RC

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 15/03/2019 12:56

I am not convinced we are going to see a big El Nino develop at this point in time.

Looking at this chart https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/tlon_heat.gif and this is not a static image so look at this in a weeks time it will be different but anyhow look at it today and notice the warm subsurface is confined to much further east then I would expect for a developing large El Nino.

While it is warm water, there is also that cold surface water streaming down the central American coast to the equator.

I have also noticed the CFSV2 3.4 Nino anomaly prediction chart just a week of more ago had us heading to strong El Nino in light of the WWB, and now it has it headed to weak to moderate to neutral later in the year. But it changes with the wind that chart, very reactive.

I am starting to wonder if we may see another ho hum El Nino, then a La Nina next year.
Posted by: mammatus meestrus

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 15/03/2019 13:56

it's these ho hum Nino patterns that seem to be so devastating for drought.

similar to millennium drought
Posted by: RC

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 15/03/2019 14:26

I would agree. 2015 was not a drought year for us, despite it being a super El Nino.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 16/03/2019 09:25

Nino1.2 SST appears to be trending down markedly:



Can someone tell me why the approx. 2 week cycle is in the downward trend is evident?

Does it link with the movement of the MJO, or something similar?
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 19/03/2019 08:05

Weak westerly anomalies currently control most of the central Pacific. Forecasts suggest these westerly anomalies will build through the next two weeks to another significant WWB.
However the subsurface is showing the first signs of a La Nina transition pattern. There is cooler subsurface water extending east along the equator, and some sign of warmer subsurface water extending westward to the north.



This is likely driven by the recent surge in trade winds. Compare to 2010, which was previously the latest el nino breakdown in the TAO record:



In other el nino years the cool subsurface waters had extended east along nearly the entire equator by this date. For example 2003, which completed a substantial el nino breakdown and was showing significant signs of cooling before a WWB late in Autumn pushed things back to warm ENSO conditions.



Finally we are still probably closest to 2015, although 2015 was showing no signs of el nino breakdown at this stage.

Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 19/03/2019 10:21

More importantly, the atmosphere is actually acting like a El Nino breaking down with a more troughy wet pattern for *most* areas than we have seen for some time.
Posted by: RC

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 19/03/2019 17:08

BOM back to El Nino alert.
Posted by: RC

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 19/03/2019 19:23

Originally Posted By: Kino
More importantly, the atmosphere is actually acting like a El Nino breaking down with a more troughy wet pattern for *most* areas than we have seen for some time.


No because the falls are not widespread. It is all scattered stuff.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 19/03/2019 19:56

Originally Posted By: Kino
More importantly, the atmosphere is actually acting like a El Nino breaking down with a more troughy wet pattern for *most* areas than we have seen for some time.


Yeah you're right, but I suspect it may be short lived.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 19/03/2019 20:32

It’ll depend what Trevor does...
Posted by: ozthunder

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 20/03/2019 10:43

Originally Posted By: Kino
It’ll depend what Trevor does...


I do not think Trevor will 'bowl" anyone over, or under
Posted by: Funkyseefunkydo

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 20/03/2019 17:54

Eh. Looks like big blocking highs are on the comeback next week.
Posted by: Funkyseefunkydo

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 20/03/2019 17:58

I think this winter will be the same as last year. Cut off lows good for snow. But not much else.
Posted by: ashestoashes

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 20/03/2019 18:24

Originally Posted By: Funkyseefunkydo
I think this winter will be the same as last year. Cut off lows good for snow. But not much else.


It all depends on the tropical moisture delivery, if we dive into winter with a positive IOD and El Nino we are toast in terms of winter rainfall. Although if we avoid these things cut-off lows will be really powerful in terms of rainfall delivery.
Posted by: Funkyseefunkydo

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 20/03/2019 19:56

I agree it would be great! But the BoM IOD outlook is not very good.
Posted by: Mega

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 21/03/2019 02:05

Over these El-Nada/La-Nadas. Just give us one or the other already.
Posted by: marakai

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 21/03/2019 02:24

Originally Posted By: Funkyseefunkydo
I agree it would be great! But the BoM IOD outlook is not very good.


Yeah they have been ever so accurate the last few years.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 21/03/2019 08:09



The Pacific seems to have clearly moved away from a modoki pattern to a much more canonical pattern, with the warmest anomalies moving further east (red curved line).

Note how the westerly anomalies have been clearly focused along the western flank of this warm water. Current forecasts suggest the next WWB significantly further east than previous WWB and I've marked the approximate location as an oval at the bottom.
Posted by: Thunderstruck

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 21/03/2019 09:18

Looking a fair deal better than last year atm anyways with a better La Nina setup in the sub surface and a reduced Ningaloo Nina for now. Basically it is a lagged version of 2010 atm bar a cooler Indian overall (2010 it was hot everywhere there). Cool neutral my bet atm but still a little early to say for sure. Indian wise, depends if Ningaloo Nina gets going again, I can see IOD trending negative briefly but generally being neutral but with more negative SAM events. Frontal systems this year should be far more consistent through late May onwards though winter and the southern growing season. Very dry and patchy till then though with plenty more highs to come.

TS cool
Posted by: Pooraka

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 21/03/2019 13:21

Cheers TS. I am hoping for at least a half decent winter for the south this year, its certainly needed.
Posted by: Werner K

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 21/03/2019 16:07

Agreed Pooraka. Thanks for the info, TS.
Posted by: Mega

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 21/03/2019 16:14

Looks like big Trev will head back across QLD and NSW as a rain depression. Great news if it comes off.
Posted by: Long Road Home

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 21/03/2019 17:45

GFS and EC are looking pretty spectacular in their latest runs bringing Trev right through the guts of the worst drought affected areas - SW and Darling downs that feeds into the Murray. I'll give it 2 more days before calling it, however the signs are good and the models haven't deviated much.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 26/03/2019 17:56

Interesting how right on the equinox we have 2 severe cyclones, a major cold change and our first reel taste of autumn.

Also major rain for NT/QLD from EX Trev and WA/NT from Ex-Veronica. Sadly the atmospheric river created by Trev is pummeling the western side of NZ and missing southern Aus where it’s needed most.
Posted by: Werner K

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 27/03/2019 13:31

[quote=Kino]Interesting how right on the equinox we have 2 severe cyclones, a major cold change and our first reel taste of autumn.

I believe in Europe the seasons are deemed to be starting on the equinoxes & solstices rather than the beginning of the month, but I could be wrong.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 27/03/2019 14:55

As does the US Werner. I reckon Australia should also move to proper scientific recognition of the seasons.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 28/03/2019 09:11

Next WWB is underway. Its weaker than the previous one, and there seems to be a return to the modoki pattern with westerlies in the far west and some enhancement of trades in the east, and the region near the dateline is warming up again.

Posted by: Flowin

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 28/03/2019 11:07

BoM Climate monthly and seasonal outlook updated today.
Shows the much of Australia in white meaning near equal chance of expecting median rainfall, for April, May and the April-May season.
Compared to previous outlooks, it is good to see that this update has less depressing orange to brown colour on the map.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/rainfall/median/seasonal/0
Posted by: ashestoashes

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 28/03/2019 12:37

The areas of Green around the Pilbara suggest some solid NW moisture which is a really good sign especially most models want a positive IOD.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 28/03/2019 13:07

Ex-Veronica has cooled the Indian Ocean off WA, very warm again over Africa way, IOD to go +ve?
Posted by: Werner K

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 28/03/2019 14:41

Originally Posted By: Flowin
BoM Climate monthly and seasonal outlook updated today.
Shows the much of Australia in white meaning near equal chance of expecting median rainfall, for April, May and the April-May season.
Compared to previous outlooks, it is good to see that this update has less depressing orange to brown colour on the map.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/rainfall/median/seasonal/0


Unfortunately, those remaining depressing brown areas in South Australia & Victoria lie across most of the cropping areas, so not a good start to the growing season. It has been a very dry summer here in South Australia with very little rain at all.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 28/03/2019 21:04

Originally Posted By: Werner K

Unfortunately, those remaining depressing brown areas in South Australia & Victoria lie across most of the cropping areas, so not a good start to the growing season. It has been a very dry summer here in South Australia with very little rain at all.

Werner I agree. Dry outlook after a dry past season is a concern. My main observation, albeit optimistically, is that today's outlook update is better in general across broad areas of Australia than a long run of previous outlooks. It may be a positive signal.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 29/03/2019 10:25

Even after one day of sunshine the SST off NW WA has quickly warmed after the cyclone, with strong trades blowing along the Nth side of the Pacific equator (set to remain for another week) there should be warm currents flowing into Nth Indonesia and into Aus tropical ocean Nth of Darwin.

With MJO parked neutral, I reckon conditions will be supportive of another cyclone over Nth WA waters within the next fortnight?
Posted by: crikey

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 01/04/2019 18:57

I have been reading forum comments on the recent cold maximums from the cold pool. March 30th 2019. Many are saying the last time there was a cold incursion like this was around 2008.
I just thought it interesting that 2008 was around the solar minimum phase ending solar cycle 23
The next solar minimum ,cycle 24 is expected around 2019.
Interesting simple correlation

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/waiting-for-the-next-suns_b_11812282

Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 01/04/2019 23:48

Originally Posted By: Petros
Even after one day of sunshine the SST off NW WA has quickly warmed after the cyclone, with strong trades blowing along the Nth side of the Pacific equator (set to remain for another week) there should be warm currents flowing into Nth Indonesia and into Aus tropical ocean Nth of Darwin.

With MJO parked neutral, I reckon conditions will be supportive of another cyclone over Nth WA waters within the next fortnight?


The models have been forecasting a TC out there for a few days now.

Meanwhile I watch with interest as the thermocline tries to flatten out in the eastern pacific.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 02/04/2019 11:41



Next WWB is happening, but is pretty mediocre. A quite strong easterly surge in the far east - anomalies in that region are usually quite mild compared to those central and west.

GFS is forecasting some significant easterlies in central Pacific which could cool things off somewhat, but EC does not agree, and overall it looks like mostly more mediocre warm ENSO conditions for the forseeable future.
Posted by: RC

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 02/04/2019 11:51

What do you believe for subsurface anomalies though.

GODAS Sub-Suface Water Temp Animation shows one thing and TAO Triton 5 day temperature shows something substantially different.

If you look at thge way the TAO is progressing, you would say we are headed for a neutral or La Nina as it shows substantially less anomalous subsurface heat.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 02/04/2019 18:46

I note that BOM have now put Aus under a "stronger" El Nino watch" ....but geez the trades seem to be firing strongly out of the Nino region?:

Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 02/04/2019 18:48

Originally Posted By: crikey
I have been reading forum comments on the recent cold maximums from the cold pool. March 30th 2019. Many are saying the last time there was a cold incursion like this was around 2008.
I just thought it interesting that 2008 was around the solar minimum phase ending solar cycle 23
The next solar minimum ,cycle 24 is expected around 2019.
Interesting simple correlation

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/waiting-for-the-next-suns_b_11812282




Crikey - just love your ability to eke out a cycle! smile
Posted by: crikey

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 02/04/2019 20:25

Nice one petros. poke laugh
cycle deciphering is not uncommon. you just have to look and find
Here is one such on solar and enso

Figure: Top: Six-month smoothed monthly sunspot number from SIDC. Bottom: Oceanic El Niño Index from NOAA. Red and blue boxes mark the El Niño and La Niña periods in the repeating pattern.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/07/05/solar-minimum-and-enso-prediction/



Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 03/04/2019 09:34

Originally Posted By: RC
What do you believe for subsurface anomalies though.

GODAS Sub-Suface Water Temp Animation shows one thing and TAO Triton 5 day temperature shows something substantially different.

If you look at thge way the TAO is progressing, you would say we are headed for a neutral or La Nina as it shows substantially less anomalous subsurface heat.


I don't think the current cooling in the subsurface is enough to trigger a sustained cooling. It needs further trade wind assistance at the surface.

Compare current conditions:



With 2010, which of all the el nino years that didn't go back to back showed the weakest subsurface cooling by this date (in TAO record).



Note also that currently the coldest subsurface anomalies are in the NW, with no sign of warm anomalies to the north of the equator moving from east to west as is usually strongly evident by this date in an el nino to la nina transition year.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 03/04/2019 09:45

ENSO shows cyclic behaviour with a cycle at 3.7 years, and solar activity at a cycle of 11 years. Three ENSO cycles is 10.6 years - close to the solar cycle length.

So look at what happens if you superimpose an average ENSO cycle on an average solar cycle.



During the first 50 years the peak of the ENSO cycle seems to be quite consistently low when the solar cycle is at peak. But go forward a hundred years and the relationship is swapping.

Studies on larger data sets find that this is the case with el nino and la nina occurring equally at solar peak.
Posted by: RC

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 03/04/2019 11:46

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber


I don't think the current cooling in the subsurface is enough to trigger a sustained cooling. It needs further trade wind assistance at the surface.


I think I was pointing out the massive difference between two different images of current supposed subsurface anomalies.

They can not both be right with one showing barely 3 degree heat anomalies and dissipating and the other showing near 6 degree anomalies.

So which one is right?
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 03/04/2019 12:51

TAO is observations. GODAS is modelling blended with observations, with the primary observations available in this region being TAO (also some ARGO network floats). I prefer TAO.
Posted by: RC

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 06/04/2019 19:32

I get the feeling no one has any idea what the enso is going to do later in the year. I doubt it is going to be any La Nina any time soon, but will it remain El Nada or go full El Nino?
Posted by: weatherhobbiest

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 06/04/2019 23:12

Originally Posted By: Kino
As does the US Werner. I reckon Australia should also move to proper scientific recognition of the seasons.


I think one needs to distinguish between the astronomical seasons (which are responsible for the meteorological seasons) and the meteorological seasons themselves. In my opinion, the meteorological seasons are best defined as they are. I would argue against any attempt to change them.
Posted by: weatherhobbiest

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 06/04/2019 23:20

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
ENSO shows cyclic behaviour with a cycle at 3.7 years, and solar activity at a cycle of 11 years. Three ENSO cycles is 10.6 years - close to the solar cycle length.

So look at what happens if you superimpose an average ENSO cycle on an average solar cycle.



During the first 50 years the peak of the ENSO cycle seems to be quite consistently low when the solar cycle is at peak. But go forward a hundred years and the relationship is swapping.

Studies on larger data sets find that this is the case with el nino and la nina occurring equally at solar peak.


An interesting and informative paper. One should always be careful in interpreting apparent patterns.
Posted by: RandomGuy

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 07/04/2019 01:01

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber




During the first 50 years the peak of the ENSO cycle seems to be quite consistently low when the solar cycle is at peak. But go forward a hundred years and the relationship is swapping.



Since the events occur at different frequencies, mathematically it will always keep changing. Looking at that graph, you can see that the relationship between ENSO events and Solar Activity occurs over a 400 year period.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 07/04/2019 18:31

..and move the data by an insignificant couple of months at the front end and it wont look like that at all. These are not 11.0000000 year cycles.
Posted by: weatherhobbiest

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 08/04/2019 01:45

Originally Posted By: Petros
..and move the data by an insignificant couple of months at the front end and it wont look like that at all. These are not 11.0000000 year cycles.


I agree. The ENSO cycle is not a regular cycle in the same way as the diurnal and the yearly seasonal cycle. It is complex and (more than a few months out) essentially unpredictable. In fact, I prefer to think of it as a "fluctuation", rather than a "cycle" as the latter term suggests regularity.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 08/04/2019 10:04

I see the MJO predictions are now predicting a return to the central Indian Ocean for the next week, after spending the best part of a month in the null state.

Pacific trades are typical at the moment, but due to slacken off in the near future, going by Windy.

Equatorial cloud remains el nada. .....so more of the same for the next few weeks?
Posted by: marakai

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 09/04/2019 01:30

Originally Posted By: Petros
..and move the data by an insignificant couple of months at the front end and it wont look like that at all. These are not 11.0000000 year cycles.


A dot here and a .,>, :. there on any input line and who knows what we get anyway right ? Sssshhh don;'t answer, you might change the Weather. smile
Posted by: Thunderstruck

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 11/04/2019 13:01

Moving away from El Nino towards at least a cool neutral atm for mine and Indian certainly looking better this year than last for better rainfalls across the south.

TS cool
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 11/04/2019 18:26

SST from the Pilbara region right through to the entire GOC remain warm given its now mid April. Although nothing is prognosed, I for one expect a late season tropical storm to brew around the Aus NW tropics over the next 10 days or so.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 12/04/2019 10:26

Its quite cloudy along the equator in central Indian Ocean right now, SST there (at MJO 2/3) is 31C. I'd say that the 50% of models that predict the MJO to appear in the Indian ocean in a weeks time will be correct.

Maybe sets up a "last hurrah" for the Aus tropics in a fortnights time?
Posted by: RC

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 14/04/2019 10:22

Enso still seems to be not sure what it wants to do.

Does not seem to be any WWB on the horizon to push into El Nino, but their also does not seem to be any push to go back to middle of the road neutral.

Looks like just a continuation of the warm neutral conditions.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 14/04/2019 11:33

SST continues to rise in central equatorial Indian Ocean over the past week:


Which to me, supports the 50% of MJO models that forecast the MJO to appear at phase 2/phase 2/3 during next week.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 14/04/2019 12:45

The ENSO state is currently like the Cyclone Models and Space Weather threads, just wallowing around in no-mans land. All eyes on the IOD for its influence on the season ahead.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 14/04/2019 18:46

BOM not keen on a -ve IOD for coming winter Kino, ....but at least that SST image above looks positive!
Posted by: ashestoashes

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 14/04/2019 20:41

The waters off the West Coast of AUS are actually cooler than average atm.
The next mjo phase looks like a very defining one imo, if has a decent phase around zone 2 we should see warming of our side of the Indian Ocean.

Another Ningaloo Nina/IOD will be very tough, really don't want to see it.
Posted by: Mega

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 15/04/2019 10:06

Why are we on El Nino alert? Am I missing something here? I can't see anything but neutral at this stage.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 15/04/2019 13:13

Originally Posted By: Mega
Why are we on El Nino alert? Am I missing something here? I can't see anything but neutral at this stage.


One thing is that Nino3.4 is now more anomalously warmer than Nino.4 for the first time in a long while?

For now it's "all eyes on the Indian" for the next couple of months!
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 15/04/2019 23:54

Isn’t it the default BoM position 🤷🏻‍♂️🤔😉 bit like “drier, warmer”
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 16/04/2019 08:17

The last WWB was a bit weaker than previous WWBs, and overall conditions have continued to ease back into neutral range. Currently trade winds are close to average and the forecast has some periods of both enhanced westerlies and enhanced easterlies, but is overall close to average.



In the subsurface the last significant warm Kelvin wave is definitely over. Otherwise conditions are very close to neutral in the subsurface. There is still significant subsurface warmth north and south of the equator, and on the equator the shallow subsurface is warm and the deeper subsurface is cool. Westerly activity could easily bring back the subsurface warmth from north and south, and build on the shallow subsurface warmth. Easterly activity could easily bring up the deeper subsurface cool waters. So while current subsurface is quite neutral it is in some sense a bit unstable and could quickly go either way.



Cloudiness has in the last couple of months been much more el nino like.



This underscores that trade wind activity, which for this event has been similar to other weak el ninos such as 2006 is the important atmospheric indicator, when determining whether the atmosphere is responding in a manner which can sustain or build an ENSO event. Cloudiness is if anything a negative feedback - if there is a strong cloudiness response during a warm event this will result in cooling, and weaken the event rather than strengthen it.

Looking forward, all models are still forecasting warm neutral or el nino. The critical factor will be trade wind activity, with near neutral trades forecast in the short term. Overall the SST pattern would seem to be biased towards enhanced westerly activity with more warm anomalies in the tropical Pacific than cool.

The eyes on the Pacific suggest drier and warmer for winter and spring is more likely. Do the eyes on the Indian suggest anything? Or is it a case of wait and see what happens and then claim that the Indian Ocean did it.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 16/04/2019 10:46

With the Indian warming and the Pacific cooling over past couple of weeks:



.....coupled with a cooling SST trend in place at Nino1.2 (with trades persistent over that region), I'm skeptical that el nino is looming out in the Pacific.

IF the MJO appears over phase 3/4 over coming weeks, then those with eyes focused on the Indian would be looking for signs of a -ve IOD.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 16/04/2019 11:14

Don't take the bait Petros. The IOD is clearly more significant for this time of year than ENSO. Especially when ENSO is cooling and waning.
Posted by: snowbooby

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 16/04/2019 12:01

Thanks Mike for the comprehensive summary
Posted by: RC

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 17/04/2019 09:58

Bom indicates if we get an El Nino, it will be short lived.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
Posted by: marakai

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 21/04/2019 00:34

Thinking about taking bets... Loser gets no comment's for Six months.
Anyone game at this point in time ? smile
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 21/04/2019 09:54

I vote Mike 😉😂😂😂😂 JOKES of course.

Still, ENSO is stuck in neutral, not deciding where to go,

Anyone have a good SAM index link? The only one I could find finished in 2015. Suspect it may be negative at present which is allowing the long wave troughs to amplify/peak over SW WA and drag down tropical moisture and generate NW cloud bands / AR’s.
Posted by: RC

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 21/04/2019 10:14

At the moment I think odds are more in favour of not a strong El Nino.

But it is interesting reading comments on another US based forum only from a few months back and then the consensus was a medium to strong El Nino was a possibility.

It shows that sometimes flipping a coin is just as an effective predictor of the weather.
Posted by: ashestoashes

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 21/04/2019 14:48

Originally Posted By: Kino

Anyone have a good SAM index link? The only one I could find finished in 2015. Suspect it may be negative at present which is allowing the long wave troughs to amplify/peak over SW WA and drag down tropical moisture and generate NW cloud bands / AR’s.

NOAA AAO link

Yh it's currently negative although very slightly and it'll be trending positive. Another year of horrible April and May Rain for Southern Australia it looks like.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 21/04/2019 16:01

Dunno bout that, seems to trending lower to the naked eye.
Posted by: ashestoashes

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 23/04/2019 23:28

Not Bloody again what do we have to catch a break. The only chance of warming off WA is for a reasonable MJO passage.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 24/04/2019 08:02

What value is a daily SST anomaly chart? 🤔
Posted by: Thunderstruck

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 24/04/2019 09:00

Yep last couple of weeks has seen a return to Ningaloo Nina like patterns although not surpising given the synoptic pattern. Hard to say how long it persists, IOD not really affected as of yet and cooler off Africa, should remain dry till Mid May generally before a change in pattern from dominant highs to improvement in frontal activity with some possible feeds beginning.

TS cool
Posted by: ashestoashes

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 24/04/2019 09:20

Originally Posted By: Kino
What value is a daily SST anomaly chart? 🤔

The fact that it's deviated so much from any form of warmth I think we can recognise some seriously cold water. Even if it's a daily measure.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 24/04/2019 17:30

More likely the response to the recent nw cloud band / AR rather than some long term pattern. If the same next week then maybe more can be read into it.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 26/04/2019 08:16

Seems that the warmth is very much east based now.



Trade winds near normal, with a bit of westerly anomaly in far west, and some enhanced easterly near middle.

MJO seems to be surging through the Indian Ocean and trades are likely to increase further this week in Pacific. The question then is whether the MJO continues strong into the Pacific for a strong WWB, or whether it dies out again before this happens. If the potential follow up WWB is avoided we might get some significant cooling, otherwise more of the same.

Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 26/04/2019 13:04

Yep Mike, will be interesting to see if the Aus tropics spring to life for a last hurrah around this time next week.

With the fresh trades over Nino1.2-Nino.3 of late, and the deletion of the warm subsurface anomaly underway, I reckon SST at Nino1.2 will plunge over coming weeks. Probable result in more of the same over Nino 3.4 for another month?
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 30/04/2019 06:48

Surge in trade winds is happening in Western Pacific.



However forecasts suggest a WWB commencing from later in the week.

I've noticed that forecasts of WWB tend to be surprisingly accurate even in the second week of the forecast, when compared to the accuracy of forecasts for general weather. Part of this is the scale of these features - if a cylcone or ECL is out by 1000km when forecast a week ahead that makes night and day difference to local weather. But if a WWB is out by 1000km it is only a minor change in the impact on the ENSO system. Also it seems that changes in pressure in the tropical pacific precede changes in trade winds by a significant amount. When pressures rise in the tropics, trades increase, and when the drop we see westerly anomalies but there is a substantial lag.

At the moment we are already seeing the substantial drop in SLP along the tropical pacific which I believe will result in the next WWB commencing later in the week.



With the current trade surge likely followed by another WWB cooling won't make much headway as the autumn predictability barrier comes to an end. It now looks quite likely that the critical winter/spring period will be dominated by warm ENSO conditions with a generally dry outlook particularly for eastern states.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 30/04/2019 12:00

Pretty much agree Mike, but do feel that after trades slacken in circa 5 days time (allowing the WWB conditions you noted), that Nino1.2 will be much cooler for when the trades resume again in circa 2-3 weeks time.

This is based on persistent trades continuing to drag up (the seasonally cooling) Humboldt current in the Nino1.2 region - which must surely flow across into Nino.3?

[edit] - most MJO models have the MJO entering into phase 6 (WWB assistance), but also models are showing a tropical storm to develop over EQ Indonesia at 130E towards the coming weekend. To me this (should it develop) provides a scenario whereby the MJO heads into null over phase 5, ....rather than continue into phase 6 as currently predicted by models.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 30/04/2019 13:03

Nino 1.2 has been erratic and hard to pick over the last few months. Not sure what it will do, and don't think that area has much influence over the rest of the Pacific.

Don't think the tropical storm over Indonesia will matter much for MJO progress, there are often individual systems split off from the main MJO signal, although week two SLP patterns suggest week 3 could be back to stronger trade winds, with an overall rapid transition of the MJO signal through the Pacific and rapid return to the Indian which would prevent the WWB building up enough steam to push things towards a proper el nino, but might be extrapolating short term forecasts too far into the future. CFS weekly want an extended WWB through most of May which would probably put things firmly on an el nino trend.
Posted by: RC

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 30/04/2019 17:47

Latest ENSO wrapup. Essentially similar to last month.

I do not think we are going to get a super El Nino.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 30/04/2019 19:02

Current SatIR shows a pretty picture for mid Autumn over much of Aus:



When compared to the meagre "systems" during this time last year, .....certainly looking healthy if the climate can continue to deliver systems such as this?
Posted by: Funkyseefunkydo

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 02/05/2019 17:22

Damn. That one helluva WWB coming up.
Posted by: RC

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 02/05/2019 18:09

It has not happened yet, and the last one seemed to have next to no effect on ENSO.

Possibly if anything is will just continue the weak El Nino. Rather then allow cooling to happen.
Posted by: crikey

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 02/05/2019 18:50

Another indicator for El Nino l believe is extensive rain in west sth America.
Some evidence currently.
info' from strangesounds twitter account
Apr 29
Intense and unexpected rain in the north of Chile has brought another “desierto florio,” or “desert flowering,” to parts of the Atacama, the driest place on Earth


google search
In Chile's case, El Niño has normally had a positive connotation, as greater rains and a warmer climate tend to benefit agriculture and energy generation,” they said. ... But he warned that if the rains continue beyond November, they may cause blooms on flowering fruit or affect harvests.Oct 7, 2015
Posted by: marakai

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 02/05/2019 23:26

Originally Posted By: crikey
Another indicator for El Nino l believe is extensive rain in west sth America.
Some evidence currently.
info' from strangesounds twitter account
Apr 29
Intense and unexpected rain in the north of Chile has brought another “desierto florio,” or “desert flowering,” to parts of the Atacama, the driest place on Earth


google search
In Chile's case, El Niño has normally had a positive connotation, as greater rains and a warmer climate tend to benefit agriculture and energy generation,” they said. ... But he warned that if the rains continue beyond November, they may cause blooms on flowering fruit or affect harvests.Oct 7, 2015


That's going to play havoc with the Lithium mines over that way, especially if a pattern set's in.
Posted by: Mega

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 03/05/2019 01:30

Originally Posted By: RC
It has not happened yet, and the last one seemed to have next to no effect on ENSO.

Possibly if anything is will just continue the weak El Nino. Rather then allow cooling to happen.


Doesn't look like anything special to me either. There were much stronger WWBs over the past year, a much warmer pool of water on the subsurface and yet we still barely nudged El-Nino status. Can't see how this year will be any different, probably closer to neutral if anything.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 03/05/2019 08:02

The WWB is not huge, but it might be enough to push conditions up past the el nino threshold quite early in the year. Events that reach the threshold this early in the year can grow through the rest of the year to become quite strong. However the models seem to be all agreeing that there won't be further warming through the rest of the year. CFS shows how much this event could possibly grow in the next month or two, and shows the same lack of growth as pretty much all other models for the rest of the year.

Posted by: RC

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 03/05/2019 08:10

But it is looking like this WWB will not be as strong as the one in February, and there was more subsurface heat back then and yet we have not seen a great amount of surface heating.

I have come to not believe that CFS plume chart, as just a week or so back it looked totally different. It is highly reactive.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 03/05/2019 09:30

February was in the middle of the early year period when ENSO events typically decay. A big part of the reason for this is that WWBs are typically deflected south of the equator, as convection peaks well south of the equator during the peak of the SH monsoon season.



May is shoulder season with tropical activity tending to occur closer to the equator and so the WWB is not as likely to be deflected south of the equator. There may still be some south deflection as the NW Pacific seems to still be high pressure dominated.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 03/05/2019 12:48

Re WWB forecast/strength - I guess is that will be determined by whether the MJO dissipates as it enters phase 6 or not, plenty of variance in the MJO forecasts today, my take is a 50% chance of it dissipating.

The near-surface warm pool out at the E end of Nino.3 looks to have reached its warmest at the surface, with the SST there set to cool quickly over coming weeks going by the Equatorial Pacific Ocean Sub-Surface Water Temperature and Anomaly chart. Trades over Nino.3 remain normal.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 06/05/2019 11:00

MJO now into phase 6 and with a lull in the trades, we'll see what sort of WWB/potential Kelvin wave initiates.

Warmest SST is at Western Indian Ocean which you'd think would tilt us towards +IOD. Also interesting is the equal 29C SST right across Nino.3/3.4/4 at the moment.



Any comment on any potential impact of the warm Pacific SST around the dateline, but 10 to 15 deg South?
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 08/05/2019 10:39

The latest SSL chart from Stormsurf is showing depressed levels below Nino1.2 and the E end of Nino.3 (between 120-90W).



Suggests to me that the cool waters lurking below the 75M depth for the above regions will soon lower the Nino.3 SST - aided by persistent trades out over that way?
Posted by: Funkyseefunkydo

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 10/05/2019 21:42

2 lows directly opposite each other in the kelvin area.
Earth
Posted by: Mega

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 10/05/2019 22:26

Originally Posted By: Funkyseefunkydo
2 lows directly opposite each other in the kelvin area.
Earth


Classic WWB, though I wouldn't really call it strong by any means.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 11/05/2019 07:21



Looks similar strength WWB to what we have seen previously.

Seems to be more warming near dateline again, and conditions becoming more modoki like. I think May is about the time that the tendency swithces from ENSO events tending to decay, to ENSO events tending to amplify. Being close to el nino threshold (Nino 3.4 BOM currently 0.74) it would be expected that warm condition should amplify towards a peak near the new year somewhere at moderate to strong el nino strength. Models don't really reflect this and want to maintain the status quo.


Subsurface cool kelvin wave likely in progress, which will probably wipe out the eastern warmth. Although the far east has been pretty hard to pick of late. Common for weak cool subsurface anomalies to be evident from the second year on in a multi-year el nino event eg 2003-2005. If there was a good trade wind surge it could bring the cooler subsurface up and cause rapid surface cooling, but if westerlies continue it won't have much impact.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 11/05/2019 08:54

Multi-year El Niño event?
Posted by: GringosRain

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 11/05/2019 16:54

Nino 1.2 region temps have flat lined 3.4 the same or tended down since early March.
Upper equatorial heat content tanking.
Surface cool water off south America A few weeks back chewed a big hole in the warm pool as I mentioned and MH said it would do zilch or something to that effect.
Huge subsurface cold pool pushing towards the surface in the east....
and we are still heading towards El nino?

where is the heat coming from to make this event peak in 6 months??

WWB out your blow hole all you like but its not looking like a developing Nino to me anymore.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 11/05/2019 17:13

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber


The subsurface cool water in the far east is of no consequence and will probably be wiped out by the warm Kelvin Wave. Of more consequence is the subsurface cooling in the far west, and the possibility that this may extend east. But I don't think we've had enough enhanced trades to initiate a cool Kelvin wave.





Thats what I said Gringos, I was correct about the subsurface cool at the time, which was wiped out by the warm Kelvin wave. And correct to state that the cooling from the west should be watched to see if it extends further east, which it has.

Posted by: GringosRain

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 11/05/2019 17:31

Well was it of no consequence? Was it wiped out by the warm Kelvin wave, or did the cool water negate the kelvin wave? because I dont see the water in east warming, then or now.

Your always correct Lord ENSO except that your not.
In your last post you are saying El nino is going peak and the post above your saying cooling has extended further east.

So which is it. Where is the heat coming from to Peak your multi year Nino event?
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 11/05/2019 17:46

Aside from the error of “multi year El Niño” which is a blatant lie.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 12/05/2019 05:32



A - The cold subsurface waters back in March.
B - The cold subsurface waters being wiped out by the warm Kelvin wave as I predicted.
C - The cold subsurface expanding again from the west as I said may happen.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 12/05/2019 07:30

Originally Posted By: Kino
Aside from the error of “multi year El Niño” which is a blatant lie.


Quote:
Common for weak cool subsurface anomalies to be evident from the second year on in a multi-year el nino event eg 2003-2005.


2003 to 2005 is widely recognised as a multi-year el nino event. The current event has obvious similarities.
Posted by: GringosRain

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 12/05/2019 09:25

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber


A - The cold subsurface waters back in March.
B - The cold subsurface waters being wiped out by the warm Kelvin wave as I predicted.
C - The cold subsurface expanding again from the west as I said may happen.


A- I was talking about the surface at the time. You said the surface cooling was of no consequence. It was. It helped mitigate any effect of the warm water. And the eastern warm pool which I stated at the time wasnt very impressive has been dissolving ever since.
B- If anything the Kelvin wave had a negligible effect and far from being wiped out the subsurface has continued to cool apart from standard fluctuations in a downward trend.
C- You dont have to be Mike Hauber to have seen the cold subsurface then or now. It was already becoming quite obvious at the time that it was cooling in the west and has extended east at quite a pace. And that brings me to the question again for the 3rd time which you ignore (standard MH MO) Where is the warm water coming form to peak "your" multi year El nino event at the end of the year?
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 12/05/2019 09:34

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Originally Posted By: Kino
Aside from the error of “multi year El Niño” which is a blatant lie.


Quote:
Common for weak cool subsurface anomalies to be evident from the second year on in a multi-year el nino event eg 2003-2005.


2003 to 2005 is widely recognised as a multi-year el nino event. The current event has obvious similarities.


That’s not what you said. You directly implied we’re in year 2 of a multi Niño event, which is simply a lie.
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 12/05/2019 10:17

2003 to 2005 was probably a strong warm neutral to weak El Nino at times.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 12/05/2019 12:19

Originally Posted By: Kino


That’s not what you said. You directly implied we’re in year 2 of a multi Niño event, which is simply a lie.


It is a direct and exact quote of what I said.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 12/05/2019 12:21

Originally Posted By: GringosRain


A- I was talking about the surface at the time. You said the surface cooling was of no consequence. It was. It helped mitigate any effect of the warm water. And the eastern warm pool which I stated at the time wasnt very impressive has been dissolving ever since.
B- If anything the Kelvin wave had a negligible effect and far from being wiped out the subsurface has continued to cool apart from standard fluctuations in a downward trend.
C- You dont have to be Mike Hauber to have seen the cold subsurface then or now. It was already becoming quite obvious at the time that it was cooling in the west and has extended east at quite a pace. And that brings me to the question again for the 3rd time which you ignore (standard MH MO) Where is the warm water coming form to peak "your" multi year El nino event at the end of the year?


On the surface it has warmed since you made these statements.

Posted by: GringosRain

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 12/05/2019 18:27

wont answer the question..... must mean you cant see where the warm water is coming from to give this El nino a peak at the end of the year. Silence is assent after all.

As for the surface warming. It was always going to warm in the east when the subsurface warm pool finally pushed to the surface. The thing is, it was anomalies of 3+ when it was in the subsurface and should have been quite significant on the surface but wasnt because it was eroded by cool surface water as I stated (and was of no consequence apparently). If it was of no consequence the warm pool would have already made a new peak but it hasnt, and it has shrunk considerably since.

Nino 1.2 has been bouncing around from -1 to +1 since March and is currently still bouncing around at +.5.... but the thing is the warm pool on the surface is all but done. Nino 3.4 hasnt made a new peak since early March. Upper heat content been tanking since March and sitting at .2 currently, and on this trajectory will go negative shortly.
subsurface -2 anomalies growing all the time. Its all over red rover, whatever Elnino you claim was there looks barely warm neutral currently and headed towards cool at pace.

You will need a WWB from hell to turn this around.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 13/05/2019 09:23

The warming comes from the sun, as it always does in el nino. Warm subsurface does not cause the warming - the water is still cooler than the surface and if raised to the surface would cause cooling not warming. Warm subsurface means that upwelling is blocked, allowing sun to warm the surface. Currently the warm water is gone, but if you look at second year for multi-year el nino events, that is quite common. Decay in Autumn period brings subsurface cooling, and westerly winds at surface bring back the warmth. Years such as 2003 and 2004 saw alternating patterns of subsurface warming and cooling while the surface remained warm.

Look at 2003:



During May a much more substantial trade surge than what we have seen recently caused much stronger subsurface cooling than what we have seen. A WWB about the same strength as what we are seeing now reversed that briefly, causing +ve anomalies basin wide before another trade surge in June/July then brought the cool subsurface anomalies back, although only in the central Pacific.
Posted by: snowbooby

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 13/05/2019 10:16

Thanks Mike

enjoying the well developed narrative you are consistently putting together. Would lead me to think that decisive direction enso should emerge in coming months...
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 13/05/2019 11:13

Interesting comments in recent posts.

But nobody has mentioned that the EQ Pacific has been basically cloud free for past 2 months. Surely that solar warming referred to above should have been at its peak/maximum possible impact over this period .....given its the season for the Sun to be most intense over the equator?
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 13/05/2019 16:48

Still some significant cloudiness in the Pacific for last 30 days:



Although it does seem to have reduced of late.

I think higher cloudiness since the start of the year has contributed some cooling, and a reduction of cloudiness recently is contributing to the warming that is starting to become evident near the dateline.
Posted by: snowbooby

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 13/05/2019 17:34

Originally Posted By: Petros
Interesting comments in recent posts.

But nobody has mentioned that the EQ Pacific has been basically cloud free for past 2 months. Surely that solar warming referred to above should have been at its peak/maximum possible impact over this period .....given its the season for the Sun to be most intense over the equator?


...maybe additional longwave radiation mitigates the warming effect?
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 13/05/2019 19:07

Originally Posted By: Kino


That’s not what you said. You directly implied we’re in year 2 of a multi Niño event, which is simply a lie.


Yep.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 14/05/2019 07:44

As of today it has been 1 year since nino 3.4 rose to +ve values - first week was week starting 14 May 2018.



NCEP have declared an el nino is present.

Does an el nino start when it is declared? Or when nino reaches +ve values. From BOM discussion of past events.

Quote:
During May 2006 to December 2006 (Figure 1), most of Australia was strongly affected by this weak El Niño,


During 2006 nino 3.4 reached el nino threshold around October, and first became +ve around May. So an el nino starts when nino 3.4 becomes +ve. Most of the impact of an el nino rainfall is in winter/spring, and usually thresholds aren't reached until well into spring.

While it is too early to call this a multi-year el nino, we are certainly on the way. It is entirely sensible to compare current conditions to the second year of a multi-year el nino, and the obvious implication is that if current conditions continue we may have a genuine multi-year el nino event by the end of the year.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 14/05/2019 12:29

Nino1.2 and East end of Nino.3 showing reduced sea levels. Trades remain fresh in that region, suggests strong surface cooling to come when the remaining thin layer of 25/26C surface/subsurface water is blown away westwards? Should know by the weekend I'd reckon.

Mike I see Nino3.4 SST as below BOM's +0.8C El Nino threshold:

Posted by: RC

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 14/05/2019 17:57

BOM downgrades to El Nino watch.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 14/05/2019 17:59

The usual half truths and snippets, yet in reality the BoM has not declared an El Niño as it did not meet the criteria - discussed ad naseum - which is clearly a requirement. Even on the temp graph provided, it didn’t meet the El Niño requirement. So ergo, impossible to be in a multi year Niño when we haven’t even had the first year of one.
Posted by: ashestoashes

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 14/05/2019 18:08

Big revision in the IOD, odds definitely on for a positive IOD. Which is certainly quite disappointing especially when you want to be climbing out of drought this year.

Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 14/05/2019 18:12

Didn’t that model previously predict that we’d already be in a +IOD by now?
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 14/05/2019 19:50

Originally Posted By: Kino
The usual half truths and snippets, yet in reality the BoM has not declared an El Niño as it did not meet the criteria - discussed ad naseum - which is clearly a requirement. Even on the temp graph provided, it didn’t meet the El Niño requirement. So ergo, impossible to be in a multi year Niño when we haven’t even had the first year of one.


One agency has declared el nino, the other hasn't. Therefore comparing current conditions to a potential multi-year el nino is entirely reasonable.

Accusing someone of lies because they do so is stupid.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 14/05/2019 22:13

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber 16/9/2017
BOM are more conservative about ENSO events than NCEP, with several past events called el nino or la Nina by NCEP but described as neutral by BOM. They also consider atmospheric indicators when calling an enso event as opposed to NCEP who require a 3 month running average of nino 3.4.


So, which is it? When it relates to Nina - NCEP are wrong and BoM right, yet when it comes to Niño the reverse? Cause on that occasion you backed the BoM in not calling a La Niña cause the other indicators didn’t support it at that stage. Now you say they don’t matter?
Posted by: Delta-T

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 14/05/2019 22:19

So who appointed you the nino sheriff?
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 15/05/2019 06:07

You mean who gave him the right to call out absolute BS. We'll need an Elnino this year and next year to have a back to back event.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 15/05/2019 06:14

Originally Posted By: Kino


So, which is it? When it relates to Nina - NCEP are wrong and BoM right, yet when it comes to Niño the reverse? Cause on that occasion you backed the BoM in not calling a La Niña cause the other indicators didn’t support it at that stage. Now you say they don’t matter?


Thats not the point. The point is that I compared the current event to a multi-year el nino, and you described it as a blatant lie, which is offensive and stupid.

If one agency says its an el nino, then comparing current conditions to an el nino is obviously not a blatant lie.

p.s.

Jamstec also have called it as an el nino.
Posted by: ozthunder

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 15/05/2019 08:49

I do not have the interest you guys do in all these, models but for me -does it pass the duck test?

Looks like duck.
Quacks like a duck
Smells like duck
Waddles like a duck
I am sure if you roasted it, it would also taste like a duck.
Posted by: GringosRain

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 15/05/2019 09:26

Except this drought has been going on for many for 4 years and that has spanned cool ENSO (goose) phases as well. So we have had roast goose and roast duck and still little change in the weather.

So it might taste like roast duck, but it tastes like roast goose...and smells like roast beef, and roast lamb...and roast pork aswell.

Nobody has really nailed the roast as far as I can see and it just shows how little we know. Atmosphere/Ocean coupling has been poor for years and contrary to what we may have thought would happen based on our limited recent view of ENSO/climate events.

We can all call la nina when it hits -.5 and bounces around there by the way. No such thing as warm neutral or cool neutral anymore.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 15/05/2019 10:48

The importance of nino 4.

The ENSO atmospheric response happens primarily in the nino 4 region, and north of Australia. I believe many people underestimate the importance of nino 4, and overestimate the importance of nino 3.

First the cloudiness patterns near peak for recent el nino years, with nino 4 drawn in by hand (so not exact):

2015/16:


2009/10:


2006/07:


2002/03:


The largest increases in cloudiness and convection are located over nino 4. There is some increase in cloudiness and convection further east.

If you compare cloudiness for Nov-Jan just gone, there is some cloudiness increase in the nino 4 region, but not as much as the regular el nino years, with the increase in cloudiness occurring further west than typical of a normal el nino year.



In contrast cloudiness for the last 3 months looks very much like a normal el nino year.



Of the other recent years, 2014 and 2004 were closest to el nino, with both years listed historically as el nino by NCEP, and excluded by BOM. 2004 is also the archtypical modoki year. Cloudiness response this year has been clearly more el nino like than either of these years.

2014/15:


2004/05:


Looking at La Nina years, reduced cloudiness is again most evident over the nino 4 region.

2007/08:


2010/11:


In 10/11 not only are the cloudiness anomalies strong, they are displaced further west, helping to push the increased cloudiness well into the Australian region. In contrast the 07/08 anomalies don't extend very far west, and signficant +ve anomalies are just off the coast. The rainfall response in 07/08 was significantly weaker than 10/11.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 15/05/2019 10:53

Cloudiness at Nino 4 is typical for null - neither nina nor nino. Cloudiness has to be over Nino3.4 for el nino according to my reading, ...including BOM's el nino explanation videos?
Posted by: snowbooby

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 15/05/2019 11:12

Forecast westerly anomalies in far east about week ahead may stymy upwelling of subsurface
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 15/05/2019 11:37

Originally Posted By: Petros
Cloudiness at Nino 4 is typical for null - neither nina nor nino.

I cannot find a single el nino without enhanced cloudiness over nino 4. I cannot find a single non-el nino year with widespread enhanced cloudiness over 4, although some non el nino years may have increased cloudiness in some parts of 4 and reduced in others.

Originally Posted By: Petros
Cloudiness has to be over Nino3.4 for el nino according to my reading, ...including BOM's el nino explanation videos?


I am not aware of any source that claims this. BOM monitor cloudiness from 170E to 170W, which is in the middle of nino 4 and buts up against, but does not overlap with nino 3.4.
Posted by: ashestoashes

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 15/05/2019 12:13

Originally Posted By: GringosRain
Except this drought has been going on for many for 4 years and that has spanned cool ENSO (goose) phases as well. So we have had roast goose and roast duck and still little change in the weather.

So it might taste like roast duck, but it tastes like roast goose...and smells like roast beef, and roast lamb...and roast pork aswell.

Nobody has really nailed the roast as far as I can see and it just shows how little we know. Atmosphere/Ocean coupling has been poor for years and contrary to what we may have thought would happen based on our limited recent view of ENSO/climate events.


I'm just going to reiterate again that the Ningaloo Nina/Nino phases have really caused us all this pain for the past couple years.
The graphic below should provide a good image but I couldn't tell you the difference between a locally-amplified and non-locally amplified.
Although the link for the paper if anyone has any further interest, including maps on rainfall deciles. On the Ningaloo Nino/Nina
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 15/05/2019 16:06

Careful mate. I got shouted down for suggesting the Indian was responsible last year.
Posted by: RC

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 15/05/2019 16:34

It will be interesting to see what effect is any the latest WWB will create.

Looking at seas surface height maps and the daily temperature change maps if it not for the latest WWB, you would not be out of order to predict neutral or even cool neutral later on this year.

But I am amused by the storm2k forum. Earlier it was all talk of an El Nino for certain. Now that talk is waning.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 15/05/2019 16:38

Well let’s be clear, with weeks of ridging it cannot be ENSO or Niño 4 as it is is where near where the Highs are forming. Maybe there is a new player, the Tasman Oscillation Energy-loop which is jamming us up - TOE-jam for short 👀
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 15/05/2019 16:55

Originally Posted By: RC
you would not be out of order to predict neutral or even cool neutral later on this year.


No, you certainly would not.
Posted by: Mcbobbings

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 15/05/2019 19:21

Anyone have a link to monitor the SAM going into winter?
Posted by: crikey

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 15/05/2019 19:23

crikey>>>mcbobbings
here you go. They have most driver indices here and more

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/aao/aao.shtml
Posted by: Mcbobbings

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 15/05/2019 19:25

Originally Posted By: crikey
crikey>>>mcbobbings
here you go. They have most driver indices here and more

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/aao/aao.shtml


Thanks, seems to be trending down to neutral from positive.
Posted by: crikey

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 15/05/2019 19:31

Yes a nice strong downturn. Some models have it going even further into neg' territory. Hoping the change will bring some good cold fronts.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 15/05/2019 20:49

Originally Posted By: ashestoashes


I'm just going to reiterate again that the Ningaloo Nina/Nino phases have really caused us all this pain for the past couple years.
The graphic below should provide a good image but I couldn't tell you the difference between a locally-amplified and non-locally amplified.
Although the link for the paper if anyone has any further interest, including maps on rainfall deciles. On the Ningaloo Nino/Nina


Ningaloo Nina certainly has a role, but it is one factor out of several, and I think far from the strongest. If you look at the details in that paper Ningaloo has a role in summer, and presumably as nothing is said about other seasons not so much in other seasons. The correlations between Ningaloo nina and rainfall for summer certainly don't look anything stronger than what ENSO is capable of.

Also as with IOD, Ningaloo is strongly impacted by ENSO. Locally amplified is the tendency of cool water west of Australia to cause southerlies, which then causes further cooling.

Non-locally amplified is forced by kelvin wave type activity through the Leeuwin current, which is initiated by trade wind variations associated with ENSO in the far west pacific and north of Australia. Modoki ENSO events have a much more significant influence on ningaloo nina than east based events.
Posted by: Eigerwand

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 16/05/2019 07:44

So the current MSLP charts are horrendous. Giant highs sitting stagnant as far south as Melbourne directing incessant showery rubbish to SE QLD (where I am) and inhibiting rain to where it’s actually needed. This pattern of larger and more stubborn highs definitely seems to be a feature over the past few years and would be a departure from what I would consider the average weather conditions to be.

So with that, which one of the current drivers do people think is the main culprit? Last winter’s similar conditions seemed to fit perfectly with the positive IOD of the time. I see the SST charts hint at another positive IOD. Any other features people notice to explain this awful rut we seem to be stuck in?
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 16/05/2019 11:16

I think its related to an anomalously even SST distribution across the Pacific Ocean Nino regions. (....which is a feature, but have no theory why that is).
Posted by: MOUNTAIN h2o

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 16/05/2019 14:06

Originally Posted By: Eigerwand
So the current MSLP charts are horrendous. Giant highs sitting stagnant as far south as Melbourne directing incessant showery rubbish to SE QLD (where I am) and inhibiting rain to where it’s actually needed. This pattern of larger and more stubborn highs definitely seems to be a feature over the past few years and would be a departure from what I would consider the average weather conditions to be.

So with that, which one of the current drivers do people think is the main culprit? Last winter’s similar conditions seemed to fit perfectly with the positive IOD of the time. I see the SST charts hint at another positive IOD. Any other features people notice to explain this awful rut we seem to be stuck in?
Horse latitudes that have gone South ? To stay ? As can be observed in action since 2007 from Hobart BOM climate records. Maybe eventually the whole South East will form a new desert zone if patterns continue into the distant future ? Just my 2 cents worthless smile
Posted by: crikey

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 16/05/2019 17:22

There are winners and losers during the cyclic process of climate drivers..All over the world.
Tasmania has had a period of heat and lower rainfall whilst during the same time period other areas have had greater rainfall like QLD, WA and the NT
Even during the maunder minimum Greenland was warmer
The post industrial era has given warmer temperature trends in many places but consequently has raised the global rainfall
Again , not everyone is getting that.

The drivers for dry and hot are well known in Australia
Especially when operating at the same time.
El Nino
Pos IOD
POS AAO
maybe add anomalous SST's around our country. Like the recent Tasman sea anomaly

even then there are some winners and losers in regard to the spatial distribution of thn heat and dry.
It is possible we may have to adapt if these changes are of a longterm.
History books provide evidence of cultures needing to migrate due to past climate change.

I doubt whether Tasmania will become a desert as it is too close to the polar westerly belt.
Deserts will always be a high pressure belt phenomenom

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/#tabs=Tracker&tracker=timeseries&tQ=graph%3Drranom%26area%3Dwa%26season%3D0112%26ave_yr%3D0
Posted by: Cutofflow

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 16/05/2019 20:49




Cold pool upwelling across WA and the top end will push north west along the Javan / Sumatran coastline, the start of this years +IOD event - as predicted.

Recent rains across inland Vic and potentially now inland SA are all Pacific driven. The long Nino event in the Pacific is finally breaking down quickly, cool subsurface anomalies are pushing across via the equatorial undercurrent and will begin upwelling off the Galapagos islands. Upper ocean heat is now steadily falling.

These observations are a typical transition towards La Nina like conditions later this year and rainfall anomalies are usually enhanced (in Pacific influenced regions) at the back-end of a Nino breakdown
Posted by: ashestoashes

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 16/05/2019 21:18

Just a thought but would the cold anomalies sitting in the bight, enhance the convection in the fronts. Due to the colder air that would be behind the front or does SSTs only very marginally affect air temps.
Posted by: amphetamarine

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 16/05/2019 22:12

Gravity.
Posted by: amphetamarine

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 16/05/2019 22:15

Keeps ya grounded....
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 17/05/2019 12:02

This WWB is become fairly substantial, and 10 day EC, 14 day GFS show no let up at this stage.



Current MJO forecasts suggest the MJO will collapse again before reaching the Indian Ocean, which would tip things from more of the same to significant warming if it occurs.



There still does seem to be a continuation of the pattern going back to maybe 2015 - SE/NW pacific favouring La Nina and SW/NE Pacific favouring el nino.



The stronger high pressure in NW just hasn't had as much impact as for a typical La Nina transition - the WWBs have been pushed south as per typical, but the trade wind surges have been weak so far.

SE Pacific is tricky - the SST pattern has warmed a fair bit over the last year to be much more neutral looking, however the SLP pattern still seems to maintain a strong SE Pacific High so the cool SSTs in SE Pacific may return. I'm guessing the warming has been driven by the steady kelvin wave activity throughout the last 12 months.

ENSO is frequently described as having an amplification phase through winter/spring, and a decay phase in late summer/autumn. Part of the decay phase is when monsoon activity reaches maximum south extension and has less impact at the equator. In theory there should be a similar period in late winter/spring in NH, but doesn't seem to work out that way. However there does seem to often be a bit of a pause in ENSO development about this time, and perhaps this effect has been stronger in recent years with a strong warming trend in 2014 fading to mediocrity, and a weak warming trend in 2017 reversing. Both well into winter when standard theory suggests an ENSO event should be well established and changes are unlikely.

I've often thought EC forecasts the typical seasonal cycle the best, and at the moment the forecast hints at amplification for the next couple of months, some amount of pause or reversal during the late winter period, and then further amplification towards summer, net impact being anywhere from almost dead neutral to strong el nino by summer time.

Posted by: RandomGuy

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 17/05/2019 12:15

*yawn*
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 17/05/2019 12:27

Fair comment Mike. As RG above alludes, most of us know it means more of the same for weeks/month to come unfortunately for those areas desperate for rain (Maffra for one).

It's been well commented on lately, but the only thing changing over recent weeks seems to be the cooling of the Pacific sub-surface at Nino1.2 into E side of Nino.3.

....and based on the current SatIR image, a little less cloudiness over Nino.4, and a little more cloudiness over Nino3.4?
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 17/05/2019 14:56

The other thing that has changed over the last couple months is the time of year. ENSO has a definite seasonal pattern of decay early in the year, and amplification for the rest of the year. As far as I can tell its about now that we switch from decay to amplification.

A few months ago with conditions hovering just near el nino threshold, and several months of the decay phase ahead there was good chance of a transition to cool conditions, or at least back a long way towards dead neutral. Now the decay phase is pretty much over and the odds are firmly in favour of amplification.
Posted by: Mega

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 17/05/2019 15:58

Still not sure where this Nino is supposed to be coming from given the lack of warmth on the subsurface. Not sure what some of these models are seeing tbh.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 17/05/2019 18:35

A friend pointed out to me that the Indian Ocean, over the huge area between Africa and India (in MJO phase 1 region), is currently cloud free -despite 30C SST and models predicting MJO to develop there in 5-7 days time.

To me, this lack of tropical activity does not support a tendency towards +ve IOD as currently predicted on the BOM climate section?
Posted by: ashestoashes

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 17/05/2019 18:57

Yes Petros even with a cloud free region warming occurs. Although that pitiful strong ridge sitting off SW Australia coast means that Southerlies and Easterlies dominate the regions meaning that there is room for upwelling and the thermocline shifts in favour of the West Indian Ocean. Similar conditions prevailed last winter, or so I think.
Posted by: amphetamarine

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 19/05/2019 02:48

i debated batman. probs should have masterd him. smile
Posted by: teckert

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 19/05/2019 15:50

Originally Posted By: Mega
Still not sure where this Nino is supposed to be coming from given the lack of warmth on the subsurface. Not sure what some of these models are seeing tbh.

It's not coming. We should be at neutral now, and leaning towards weak la nina in the short term. Ignore the models.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 20/05/2019 07:44

If anything the models are likely underestimating the warming as they probably haven't taken into account the current WWB. Watch the warm subsurface come back strongly as it has its impact.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 20/05/2019 13:10

Models don't ever seem to underestimate any warming - quite the opposite hence the failed predictions of El Nino the last 2 years and the missed La Nina forecast.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 20/05/2019 13:36

SST at Nino1.2 and Nino.3 have returned to neutral values these last few days, seems to be plenty of cool subsurface water to continue the cooling trend.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 20/05/2019 14:00

Originally Posted By: Kino
Models don't ever seem to underestimate any warming - quite the opposite hence the failed predictions of El Nino the last 2 years and the missed La Nina forecast.


Forecast in April 2015:



The 2015/16 event had a peak of 2.6. Every single model forecast weaker than observed. The dynamic average was roughly half the strength of what happened.

For the current event this was the forecast:



The peak forecast by the model average was 0.8. Actual observed by CPC was 1.0.

I remember pointing out the 2015/16 case to you multiple times previously. Some people never seem to remember the instances of models underestimating because they don't want to.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 20/05/2019 14:55

So, in essence to back up your arguments, you post 4 year old model runs to say that they don't. Yet, the most recent runs, they massively did, including the failed El Nino forecasts of 2017/18 & 2018/19. You;d think they'd made improvements in model forecasts over the time...
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 20/05/2019 16:11

One was 4 years ago, one was last years. Both underestimated the warming, although last year's forecast was almost perfect and underestimated the warming by only 0.2 degrees.
Posted by: Mega

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 20/05/2019 17:46

I think using previous years is a bad example since the setup is completely different. There is no big warm pool sitting below the surface like there was in previous years.

2015 subsurface
2018 subsurface

Current subsurface
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 20/05/2019 18:44

2015 and 2018 aren't good years to compare the current situation to, but they are perfectly good years to prove that the models do not always overestimate warming, as both are years which saw more warming than models predicted.

Multi-year el nino/warm neutral events such as 91-95 or 2002-2005 show that a cool subsurface can still result in el nino years, 1994 being the best example, with nino 3.4 reaching 1.2, and the subsurface in June cooler than current subsurface.

Posted by: amphetamarine

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 21/05/2019 02:17

Who inputs the data on these models?
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 21/05/2019 07:18

The various meteorological agencies around the world gather data. From weather stations on land, satellites, weather balloons. Ships send in readings at ocean. This data is shared and various agencies will gather all the data and attempt to create a coherent analysis of the current state of ocean and atmosphere - smoothing and extrapolation is applied so that the raw data is suitable for running in a weather or climate model.
Posted by: Locke

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 21/05/2019 10:21

The ENSO page at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is one of my favorite sites for information on ENSO developments.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

Currently looking at the various metrics being reported, whilst I see the last WWB in the charts, everything to me is still pointing towards the ocean forcings shifting towards La Nina with the atmosphere still to follow and couple.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 21/05/2019 17:40

Thunderstruck forecast a lanina a while back.
Posted by: RC

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 22/05/2019 08:38

I would have thought we should have expected some warmer subsurface water from that last WWB by now. Nothing showing on the charts I look at.

In fact CFS V2 3.4 prediction has done from strong El Nino prediction a few weeks back to neutral to cool neutral.

It is very reactive.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 22/05/2019 09:49

Never been a year with anything even close to this much surface warmth, and this much westerly activity through Autumn that has made it anywhere near cool neutral.



Subsurface is warming noticeably in response to the WWB. It is common in multi-year el nino events for subsurface to be a little on the cool side.

Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 22/05/2019 10:02

At a guess CFS is still reacting to the trade wind surge in April, and hasn't even started to pick up the current WWB. In 2014 the major WWB and kelvin wave was in Feb/Mar, with some further activity in April. CFS didn't get to its warmest forecast until mid May, by which time trade winds has returned to near normal. It wasn't until September that CFS backed off its forecast to around what occurred.

I wish CFS was much more reactive.
Posted by: GringosRain

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 22/05/2019 12:17

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Never been a year with anything even close to this much surface warmth, and this much westerly activity through Autumn that has made it anywhere near cool neutral.



Subsurface is warming noticeably in response to the WWB. It is common in multi-year el nino events for subsurface to be a little on the cool side.



warming marginally? Maybe... if I have my googles on. Heat content has tanked. Its a long way back to El nino by year end from here. You definitely have KWHS....
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 22/05/2019 13:28

90 day SOI: -8.3, 30 day at -6.2, vs el nino threshold -7.5 by BOM.
Westerly wind activity in last 3 months ahead of most el nino's in Autumn, and similar to 2006/2007 el nino at peak.

Latest nino 3.4: 0.67 vs threshold of 0.8.

Cloudiness similar to 06/07 and 09/10 el ninos at peak.

Heat content is the only indicator not near or above el nino thresholds, but is frequently negative during a multi-year el nino.

JMA and NCEP both consider that we are currently in El Nino, whereas BOM and WMO do not.

We are definitely not a long way from El nino.
Posted by: Locke

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 22/05/2019 14:26

Maybe but .....

Posted by: GringosRain

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 22/05/2019 14:27

We are never a long way from El nino in your world....
Posted by: Locke

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 22/05/2019 14:28

Or .....

Posted by: Locke

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 22/05/2019 14:29

And then theres.....

Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 22/05/2019 15:23

Locke, that is all variations around subsurface being cool. Which is normal during a multi-year el nino.
Posted by: Locke

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 22/05/2019 15:36

You might be close to something but when the ocean forcings are currently pushing you strongly in the other direction you might as well be a million miles away.
Posted by: GringosRain

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 22/05/2019 15:44

multi forever and ever, super modoki, inverted cool phase, upside down freezing PDO, Kelvin Tsunami, subsurface volcano, Maxi nino. oh yeah... shes coming. get ready.
Posted by: amphetamarine

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 22/05/2019 16:27

Do they input data from Gravity, volcanoes, earthquakes and the decline in human population?
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 22/05/2019 16:46

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Locke, that is all variations around subsurface being cool. Which is normal during a multi-year el nino.


Still waiting for the first one...3 years later
Posted by: amphetamarine

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 22/05/2019 16:52

Does the Panama canal have anything to do with the gulf stream?
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 22/05/2019 19:04

Originally Posted By: GringosRain
multi forever and ever, super modoki, inverted cool phase, upside down freezing PDO, Kelvin Tsunami, subsurface volcano, Maxi nino. oh yeah... shes coming. get ready.


😁
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 22/05/2019 20:03

Originally Posted By: GringosRain
multi forever and ever, super modoki, inverted cool phase, upside down freezing PDO, Kelvin Tsunami, subsurface volcano, Maxi nino. oh yeah... shes coming. get ready.


Misrepresenting what the other guy says is what you do when you have nothing useful to say.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 22/05/2019 20:33

What the subsurface looks like in a typical transition to La Nina by this time of year:



A strong subsurface cool pool breaking through the warmth on the surface, following previous significant trade wind surges that have pulled the subsurface cool water to the surface.

Typical of a multi-year el nino:



Weak subsurface cool pool not breaking through the surface warmth. Weak trade wind surges not able to overcome regular WWBs driven by the surface warmth.

Current case:



Even weaker subsurface cool. It will never break the surface unless assisted by a substantial trade wind surge, and there is currently no sign of this.
Posted by: amphetamarine

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 22/05/2019 21:47

Where was that depth sounding taking co. oords plz time as well. nice updates
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 22/05/2019 23:13

Weaker? Baloney. That cold subsurface pool extends across the whole pacific. And why chose 2007 as your narrative? Nothing like the present. We haven’t been in an El Niño for a start.
Posted by: marakai

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 23/05/2019 01:20

Still amazed that after a number of years now Enso is still the go to subject for Climate Driver discussion here. Shirley there is a lot more out there than just Nino/Nina driving the Climate ?
Groundhog's anyone ?
Posted by: amphetamarine

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 23/05/2019 02:41

Do discussions drive climate?
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 23/05/2019 07:38

Originally Posted By: marakai
Still amazed that after a number of years now Enso is still the go to subject for Climate Driver discussion here. Shirley there is a lot more out there than just Nino/Nina driving the Climate ?
Groundhog's anyone ?


You have obviously not been playing attention.
Posted by: GringosRain

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 23/05/2019 07:53

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Originally Posted By: GringosRain
multi forever and ever, super modoki, inverted cool phase, upside down freezing PDO, Kelvin Tsunami, subsurface volcano, Maxi nino. oh yeah... shes coming. get ready.


Misrepresenting what the other guy says is what you do when you have nothing useful to say.


Oh come on Mike, I was only representing my own thoughts and opinions on this. Nothing to do with anyone else.
It will be a credit to you if we have an Elnino peak by the end of the year. The next Kelvin wave could make a big difference.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 23/05/2019 08:28

Ok GringosRain, maybe I over reacted, based on the long history of attacks from certain others.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 23/05/2019 08:32

Originally Posted By: amphetamarine
Where was that depth sounding taking co. oords plz time as well. nice updates


The soundings are along the equator with the E-W coordinates at the top of the chart. They basically cover most of the Pacific. Locations with an actual measurement are marked by a dot, and everything in between is extrapolated/smoothed. The dates are 20 May 2002, 2007 and this year, but averaged over a 5 day period (a bit either side)
Posted by: Mega

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 23/05/2019 17:53

Originally Posted By: marakai
Still amazed that after a number of years now Enso is still the go to subject for Climate Driver discussion here. Shirley there is a lot more out there than just Nino/Nina driving the Climate ?
Groundhog's anyone ?


Go back to your Space Weather thread then.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 23/05/2019 18:55

😂😂😂
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 23/05/2019 19:01

Mike those subsurface temp charts you posted not too far above, to me, show we are at risk of tending La Nina.
Posted by: amphetamarine

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 23/05/2019 23:17

Are graphs made from graphite?
Posted by: snowbooby

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 24/05/2019 07:37

It might be interesting to hear how the sub surface is expected to reach the surface – if april’s strong anomalous current towards the west from east of the dateline is associated predominantly with trades, may data hasn’t been released yet(far as I know).
Meanwhile it is interesting to see another outcrop of westerly anomalies forecast in far east while west of the dateline a (weak to average?) trade blow
Posted by: Werner K

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 24/05/2019 08:31

I would have to agree, Petros. The first & 3rd pair of charts look more similar to each other.
Posted by: snowbooby

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 24/05/2019 08:53

So what?
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 24/05/2019 14:19

So on Mikes hypothesis, what happens next re ENSO is likely to mimic what happened after May 2007 - given the subsurface "actual temp" chart similarities between then and now.

.....or am I being sucked into responding to a flame?
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 24/05/2019 15:01

To refresh our minds:

2007 heading to La Nina




2002 heading to el nino




Current case:



If people think now looks more like 2007 than like 2002 there is not much I can say really.
Posted by: RC

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 24/05/2019 15:18

Can you provide a link where you get that data from? I would like to check out other years.
Posted by: snowbooby

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 24/05/2019 15:35

Originally Posted By: Petros
So on Mikes hypothesis, what happens next re ENSO is likely to mimic what happened after May 2007 - given the subsurface "actual temp" chart similarities between then and now.

.....or am I being sucked into responding to a flame?


I think I was saying on the similarities of the charts alone how would you call enso one way or other. I actually think there are similarities in both charts.

In the earlier post you made a point about the “risk” of nina. The poster seemed to be following your comment without saying if they agreed with that part.

If Mike is implying a nino should follow, he was cautious enough in using the charts to include a reference to what was happening with the component wind at the time.

Until there's some trades signal, I'd give the benefit of the doubt to current conditions
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 24/05/2019 15:57

Originally Posted By: RC
Can you provide a link where you get that data from? I would like to check out other years.


TAO Data page
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 24/05/2019 16:03

The current setup is nothing like either IMO - if I had to choose one, 2007 is closer seeing as the colder subsurface has no warmer water west of it unlike 2002 when it was already peaking and moving east.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 24/05/2019 16:03



MJO seems to be stalling in el nino favourable sector 8. Forecast to stall again in sector 1, which is kind of in between, but maybe more el nino than la nina I think. CFS 14 day forecast is for westerly anomalies to move into the far east Pacific and the western Pacific to get close to normal at about this time frame.

So no sign off any trade wind surge in the shorter term.
Posted by: GringosRain

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 24/05/2019 16:27

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
To refresh our minds:

2007 heading to La Nina




2002 heading to el nino




Current case:



If people think now looks more like 2007 than like 2002 there is not much I can say really.


What did the upper equatorial heat content graphs for the preceeding 12 months look like on each of these?
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 24/05/2019 16:59

2002: heading into el nino



2007: heading into La Nina



Now:



Note 2007 and 2002 go right to the end of May even though I requested an end date of 24 May same as for this year.
Posted by: Funkyseefunkydo

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 24/05/2019 17:10

Nice. Keep up the good work mike.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 24/05/2019 19:21

Thanks for the responses all. Mike, disagree that MJO is to stall at sector 8 - when you look at all the other model runs as well?
Posted by: RC

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 24/05/2019 21:36

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber


After looking up a lot of years both leading up to El Nino or La Nina events, what I found was I am stuffed if there seems to be much correlation a lot of the time when it comes to weak non obvious events.

If you looked at June 2012, you would swear an El Nino was on the way for 2012-2013. Even June 2013 was more subsurface heat then now, but no El nino in 2013-2014. But by June 2014 the buildup was on to the large El Nino of 2015.

Also I noticed in lead up's to El Nino, the warmer surface/sub water was more around 180 degrees, at the moment it is just on the map.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 25/05/2019 07:39

I consider 97/98 to be the perfect el nino, and it is a fairly nice example of some important processes:

On the surface:



October - weak cool conditions prevail.
December - moderate WWB occurs. Possibly assisted by weak warm surface anomalies in that region.
February - weaker warm anomalies near the dateline with cooler anomalies is supportive of WWB although the WWB that does occur is quite extreme.
March-April - the westerly warm pool strengthens and moves east with WWB occurring on the western flank of the warm water. East movement may be a combination of water movement by altered currents, and increased evaporation and westerly wind on western flank causing cooling in place.
May - warm water emerges in the far east, and spreads west to join and reinforce the western warm pool.

If we look at the subsurface:



October - subsurface is neutral, maybe a little on the cool side.

December - After the first WWB a warm kelvin wave commences. This Kelvin wave emerges in March in the far east which is when surface warms from somewhat cool to very weakly warm.

March - After the second very strong WWB a stronger warm kelvin wave commences. This emerges in far east in May and is when the substantially warm surface water from the east spreads west to join with the western warm water.

The case of 2012 is a bit odd.



Up to about August there is significant warming in the east, which does not join with the western warm water, and which triggers minimal westerly activity on its western flank - warm anomalies further east don't raise the surface temperature above 28C which is the threshold for deep convection and don't tend to generate westerly activity.

From June a weak western warm pool emerges, with weak westerly activity on its western flank. The warm pool strengthens until November when it is a good strength to support el nino development, but the WWBs become stronger only until September and westerly activity collapses once a stronger western warm pool emerges, and with no westerly wind activity the warm water collapses again by the end of the year.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 25/05/2019 07:43

Originally Posted By: Petros
Thanks for the responses all. Mike, disagree that MJO is to stall at sector 8 - when you look at all the other model runs as well?


The stall in sector 8 has already happened. A possible stall in sector 1 is forecast by some but not all models, and is variable with some models suggesting progression to Indian sector but weaker.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 25/05/2019 18:34

Mike when I posted, consensus was for a restart in the Indian. Haven't looked today yet. Doesn't matter all that much at this time of the year for Aus?

With all the variability of SOI/ENSO/IOD/PDO/Solar cycle/Planetary positioning/etc. interplays in place at the time when we look back at historic events, I've developed an opinion that weather history simply does not repeat itself with any reliability.

I think we should deal with the hand we've got, rather than find a previous analog and assume that "what happened then, must happen again now". My 2 bobs.
Posted by: snowbooby

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 25/05/2019 19:57

Like to know if there’s any link available on the current position of SPSHigh against climatology. Paper here

Zou, Y. and Xi, X.: On the role of the south Pacific subtropical high at the onset of El Niño events, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2018-82, 2018.

of interest to me suggesting the efficacy of MJO and wwb as trigger to nino may be influenced by anomalous shift southwards in spHigh while the intensity of upwelling correlates with spsh’s zonal position.
Posted by: amphetamarine

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 26/05/2019 00:57

Do polar areas melt in summer?
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 26/05/2019 09:46

Seems we have a new “driver” now, with Sinabung in Sumatra erupting possibly up to a VEI6 eruption which would cool the globe.

https://electroverse.net/sinabung-sumatra-explodes-to-50000-feet-15-2km-direct-cooling-effect/
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 26/05/2019 10:08

Yep Kino - a significant turn of events, thanks for posting.
Posted by: snowbooby

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 26/05/2019 12:37

Manaro Voui (Vanuatu) emitted 600,000 tonnes (sulphur dioxide) in 2018 – 3 times the world total for 2017.

Pinatubo 1991 estimated 20 million tonnes –apparently cooled the earth’s atmosphere for perhaps 2 years by approx. 0.5 c – a lot more significant than it probably sounds… not sure if Pinatubo’s initial plume would have been captured by the qbo at the time (June 1991 QBO easterly) – though from animations of the event, it does seem to have drifted somewhat WNW before dispersal.

My speculation- if a significant plume was injected directly into the qbo from an eruption aligned below it, perhaps circulation would be more confined to equatorial belt and dispersal elsewhere delayed (but effects might be disproportionately greater?)

If the direction and spread of a very large emission was captured by the current westerly phase QBO over Indonesia and transported into enso territory, it’d give this thread a bit of a shake up.
Posted by: RandomGuy

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 26/05/2019 13:38

Originally Posted By: Kino
Seems we have a new “driver” now, with Sinabung in Sumatra erupting possibly up to a VEI6 eruption which would cool the globe.

https://electroverse.net/sinabung-sumatra-explodes-to-50000-feet-15-2km-direct-cooling-effect/


You can see the ash cloud on satellite, pretty cool. It's amazing to think that such a relatively small ash cloud (as compared to clouds) can have a cooling effect on the Earth.
Posted by: snowbooby

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 26/05/2019 14:40

Originally Posted By: RandomGuy
It's amazing to think that such a relatively small ash cloud (as compared to clouds) can have a cooling effect on the Earth.


I'd think there would have to be some significant aerosol loading to have any effect at all
Posted by: amphetamarine

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 26/05/2019 15:54

Do clouds reflect heat and oceans absorb heat?
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 26/05/2019 18:17

Originally Posted By: snowbooby
Manaro Voui (Vanuatu) emitted 600,000 tonnes (sulphur dioxide) in 2018 – 3 times the world total for 2017.

Pinatubo 1991 estimated 20 million tonnes –apparently cooled the earth’s atmosphere for perhaps 2 years by approx. 0.5 c – a lot more significant than it probably sounds… not sure if Pinatubo’s initial plume would have been captured by the qbo at the time (June 1991 QBO easterly) – though from animations of the event, it does seem to have drifted somewhat WNW before dispersal.

My speculation- if a significant plume was injected directly into the qbo from an eruption aligned below it, perhaps circulation would be more confined to equatorial belt and dispersal elsewhere delayed (but effects might be disproportionately greater?)

If the direction and spread of a very large emission was captured by the current westerly phase QBO over Indonesia and transported into enso territory, it’d give this thread a bit of a shake up.


Great post, very interesting. .....and another area of research for this tiro.....:(
Posted by: crikey

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 26/05/2019 18:27

Increased volcanism is known to occur during a solar minimum.
The only difference is that THIS solar minimum , cycle 25,is predicted to be ongoing for decades rather than a couple of years.
There is of course a division amongst scientists re :the length of this current solar downturn.
I believe the cooling of the earth in grand minimums is attributed to the increased vulcanism from larger volcanoes, rather than say TSI reduction. So it is a cause and effect flow on
The other effect of solar minimum is the change in the AO index and jetstream changes
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 27/05/2019 10:36

Interesting theory Crikey.

Looking "out there" today I see:

* some equatorial cloud over the Pacific Nino3.4 region
* Pacific trades beginning to freshen and set to be strong again over the coming week
* Pacific SST is down to 23/24C throught the Eastern sector of Nino.3
* Nino1.2 SST have jumped to a +1C higher anomaly over the past 5 days, should cool rapidly with the return of strong trades and cool subsurface temps
* Nino3.4 remains at +0.5C - 0.3C under the El Nino trigger level
* IOD is neutral with temps 30C across the equatorial regions
* MJO set to return to the Indian Ocean in a weeks time

To me, equals "more of the same" - although I'm getting more interested in volcanic effects, might be the X factor needed to switch into La Nina?
Posted by: Delta-T

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 27/05/2019 14:11

Originally Posted By: crikey
Increased volcanism is known to occur during a solar minimum.
The only difference is that THIS solar minimum , cycle 25,is predicted to be ongoing for decades rather than a couple of years.


I'm sceptical of both these claims Crikey, I've had a google around but can't find convincing support for either. Can you provide a link to any research?
Posted by: crikey

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 27/05/2019 21:54

crikey >>>> deltaT

You have read research on these claims and ... are not convinced.
If l have interpreted correctly?

There are counter claims in the body of research on these topics.

For that reason it is ok not to be convinced. There is no consensus.

I base my decision on which school of thought is correct based on my wide reading of these topics and my own personal evaluation.

If you read widely and disagree then so be it
I will post some research links for both claims, for and against tomorrow night. You can then digest and consider
regards
Posted by: amphetamarine

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 28/05/2019 00:08

Does the internet create climate?
Posted by: marakai

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 28/05/2019 00:23

Originally Posted By: crikey
Increased volcanism is known to occur during a solar minimum.
The only difference is that THIS solar minimum , cycle 25,is predicted to be ongoing for decades rather than a couple of years.
There is of course a division amongst scientists re :the length of this current solar downturn.
I believe the cooling of the earth in grand minimums is attributed to the increased vulcanism from larger volcanoes, rather than say TSI reduction. So it is a cause and effect flow on
The other effect of solar minimum is the change in the AO index and jetstream changes


crikey there is a whooooole lot more that you need to look into to do with the Sun and it's effects. You also need to look at magnetic field changes on both the Earth and the Sun and about another 20 influences outside of Sun Spot's along with interactions between the Earth and the Sun as well.


How many years now have we watched this endless ENSO argument back and forth as the one and only point of interest as a supposed climate driver despite CF's attempts to expand it ? Mikes ever so close Nino predictions and the never ending debate of Yeah or Nah as the season drag's on ?

Everybody in this debate is hamstrung by the information they quote, it only ever comes from a cartel of self interested organizations.

Think if you will of an organization that only exists due to it's information provided. IE: You only have a job and Pay if there is a problem that exist's. What do you do if there are countless Tax payer funded jobs supporting costly green energy power suppliers ?
Posted by: Mega

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 28/05/2019 00:35

@marakai: Then go back to your space weather thread if you don't like the discussion in this thread. It's really quite simple.
Posted by: amphetamarine

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 28/05/2019 04:35

Does solar power exist?
Posted by: CoastalStorm22

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 28/05/2019 09:13

Anymore news on this Sinabung eruption?

Very little coverage from the major media outlets(that i could find) on what was supposed to be a possible VEI 6 eruption. Latest BOM VAAC advisory says "no more advisories" so it seems the size of latest eruption was initially overestimated by quite a bit.
Posted by: adon

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 28/05/2019 09:26

I think the reporting got messed up. From memory, the volcano has a potential to produce a VEI 6 eruption based on previous eruptions. I think the last one would have struggled to be a 4
Posted by: crikey

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 28/05/2019 19:18

crikey>>>deltaT
Good evening. RE: my comment on length of solar minimum being decades long. What l said is technically not correct. The solar schwabe cycle is a quasi cycle. The average length being 11 yrs, sunspot minimum to minimum.
What l am refering to is the forecast amplitude of the upcoming schwabe cycles . cycle 25 and onwards.

I have looked tonight at the various recent FORECASTS for cycle 25 which is about to commence of has commenced. As with all forecasts there is variability.
NOAH's preliminary forecast based more on physics type principles has cycle 25 about the same as 24.
https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2019/04/10/experts-predict-the-solar-cycle/

There are quite a few analysts who suggest cycle 25 will be lower than cycle 24.
The techniques they use are only short range forecasts and need updating probably annually.
Now the school of thought that l subscribe to is based on cycle analysis. Gleisburg, De Vries in particular .
and can predict way into the future as the mechanism is solar system driven which runs like clockwork'
Here is the link to two such cycle analysts predicting a continuing downturn in solar amplitude for the next few decades

Both of these researchers use the cycle approach for forecasting

The Approaching New Grand Solar Minimum and Little Ice Age Climate Conditions
https://www.researchgate.net/publication...mate_Conditions


Will Solar Cycles 25 and 26 Be Weaker than Cycle 24 ?
J. Javaraiah
(Submitted on 11 Nov 2017)
https://arxiv.org/abs/1711.04117
..........
I will respond to the other claim tomorrow night
regards
Posted by: crikey

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 28/05/2019 19:27

crikey>>>>>>marakai
The body of knowledge is very large marakai. I try to specialise in cyclic patterns evident in weather and climate

If there is time series data on the topics you suggest ,l am interested.
Could you provide a list of variables that are worth considering and l will check it out.
regards
Posted by: Delta-T

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 28/05/2019 20:26

Originally Posted By: crikey
crikey>>>deltaT
Good evening. RE: my comment on length of solar minimum being decades long. What l said is technically not correct. The solar schwabe cycle is a quasi cycle. The average length being 11 yrs, sunspot minimum to minimum.
What l am refering to is the forecast amplitude of the upcoming schwabe cycles . cycle 25 and onwards.

I have looked tonight at the various recent FORECASTS for cycle 25 which is about to commence of has commenced. As with all forecasts there is variability.
NOAH's preliminary forecast based more on physics type principles has cycle 25 about the same as 24.
https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2019/04/10/experts-predict-the-solar-cycle/

There are quite a few analysts who suggest cycle 25 will be lower than cycle 24.
The techniques they use are only short range forecasts and need updating probably annually.
Now the school of thought that l subscribe to is based on cycle analysis. Gleisburg, De Vries in particular .
and can predict way into the future as the mechanism is solar system driven which runs like clockwork'
Here is the link to two such cycle analysts predicting a continuing downturn in solar amplitude for the next few decades

Both of these researchers use the cycle approach for forecasting

The Approaching New Grand Solar Minimum and Little Ice Age Climate Conditions
https://www.researchgate.net/publication...mate_Conditions


Will Solar Cycles 25 and 26 Be Weaker than Cycle 24 ?
J. Javaraiah
(Submitted on 11 Nov 2017)
https://arxiv.org/abs/1711.04117
..........
I will respond to the other claim tomorrow night
regards


Thanks for your reply crikey.

From the link https://www.researchgate.net/publication...mate_Conditions
"The quasi-bicentennial variability of TSI has always been the dominant factor in global warming and now it is leading us towards the global cooling"

I think that even if quasi-bicentennial variability of TSI is not just curve-fitting https://skepticalscience.com/print.php?r=409 that is an arguable conclusion.

In this study https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-07690-0
They say: "These and other studies20,21,22,23 indicate that prediction of the strength of the next sunspot cycle is indeed plausible, and is best achieved with accurate knowledge (i.e., observational input) of the solar polar (poloidal) field proxy at the preceding cycle minimum, i.e., only about 5 years in advance.

And concludes:

"Our results certainly rule out a substantially weaker cycle 25 compared to cycle 24 and therefore, do not support mounting expectations of an imminent slide to a Maunder-like grand minimum in solar activity."

Cheers.
Posted by: crikey

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 28/05/2019 21:01

I got a page not found on that link delta.
re. TSI?

----
Computer modelling, vs cycle analysis
Time will tell.
.......
Posted by: Delta-T

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 28/05/2019 21:23

Strange, the identical link from you post works fine.
Posted by: ashestoashes

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 29/05/2019 17:12

Those are some seriously warm temperatures sitting in the West Indian Ocean. Will be interested to see the Indian Ocean Dipole and what it'll be.
Posted by: crikey

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 29/05/2019 17:16

deltaT..Many well known scientists and astrophysicists will disagree with the conclusions of the 'skeptical science' blog.

This conclusion at the end of the link you provided in particular.

"Climastrology is not real science, and planetary movements are not causing global warming."
......
my response
Astrophysics is not astrology..You have to be joking..
and
foolish to disregard the power and dynamics of the solar system.
....
The 'skeptical science' blog is famous for its cherry picking of THEIR favorite a scientists.

I will be critical of this blog site that cannot keep their timeseries data ...up to date.

Could you ask them to add another 7 years on to this snow time series graph. I believe this analysis is.... out of date
It ends in 2012.
Now that is 'cheery picking' at its best

https://skepticalscience.com/record-snow-cover.htm


https://skepticalscience.com/record-snow-cover.htm
Posted by: crikey

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 29/05/2019 17:39

The past 2 years in NH, has seen good recovery of spring snow .

What is driving the current trend in NH snow extent?

and
our snow anomaly on the alps in may 2019?
Mount Hotham. today
https://twitter.com/_hotham/status/1133489901016498176


2019 NH winter snow.. time series.



Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 29/05/2019 18:55

After a great snow season last year, despite the continuing drought in E Aus, ....certainly we are currently off to a statistically significant big start to this season right now???
Posted by: Funkyseefunkydo

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 29/05/2019 19:40

Compare now to last year pacific ssta.
Posted by: Delta-T

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 29/05/2019 20:05

You might be onto something there.
https://snowriders-australia.com/2019/03...lobal-warming1/

Wait, maybe not.
https://snowriders-australia.com/2017/03/04/test3/
Posted by: crikey

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 29/05/2019 21:41

The article written in march 2017 plots snow depth only up to 2014

add on another 5 years of good snow seasons , especially 2017 and 2018
https://www.snowyhydro.com.au/our-energy/water/inflows/snow-depths-calculator/

Between us we can hunt around for some... up to date ...time series graphs

There are some promising recent trends of snow depth and timing recovery around the world
SKI resorts in NSW and VIC will open in 2days

For the past 2years they have also been extensions of the ski season.


Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 29/05/2019 22:32

Originally Posted By: Funkyseefunkydo
Compare now to last year pacific ssta.


Northern Pacific is intriguing me - has been persistent warm anomalies there for years but now seems to have switched to significant cold anomalies....and is that a cold PDO brewing?
Posted by: Delta-T

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 30/05/2019 05:41

Posted by: Werner K

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 30/05/2019 08:48

Originally Posted By: Kino
Originally Posted By: Funkyseefunkydo
Compare now to last year pacific ssta.


Northern Pacific is intriguing me - has been persistent warm anomalies there for years but now seems to have switched to significant cold anomalies....and is that a cold PDO brewing?


What effect is that large cold pool SW & across the Great Australian Bight having on our weather this year compared to last year?
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 30/05/2019 09:31

Hi Werner one would assume it allows fronts to reach Aus at full impact for once. But you'd think it would also starve the fronts of moisture? So a catch-22?
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 30/05/2019 09:40

The WWB seems to be winding down with current analysis charts showing an almost total lack of westerlies. It has been a much bigger WWB than any of the previous events over the last year or so, and is having a clear warming impact at the surface.



There is also a clear impact on the subsurface, although the impact is not as large as previous WWB in similar situations would imply. However there is now a clear but weak dominance of warmer subsurface anomalies over the cooler subsurface anomalies (second chart - heat content). The deeper subsurface is still overall on the cooler side (first chart - depth of 20 C water).



A curious change in the last few weeks is rapid subsurface warming to the north of PNG. This is a normal part of el nino to La Nina transition, and up to a week or two ago had been totally absent. Multi-year el ninos tend to be a mix with some having warm subsurface in this region, and others cool.

CFS has downgraded and is going for a gradual return to neutral conditions:



A look at Trade wind forecasts suggest a return to near neutral trade winds over the next couple of months, which is mirrored by the weekly CFS forecast as well:



It is rather curious why this might occur with lots of warmth near the dateline to fuel further WWB activity and consistent WWB activity over the past twelve months. Perhaps one factor that may contribute is the warming of surface water to the north of PNG (which matches the subsurface warming), although I suspect this could also fuel strong WWB activity in the far West Pacific as well.
Posted by: crikey

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 30/05/2019 18:28

Very nice DeltaT.,Thanks for posting spencer creek time series graph..current.
A few calcs' hope they are right.
SPENCER CREEK snow depth time series 1950 to 2019
225cm ..1950
170cm…2019
69 year time series.
Drop of 55cm
Rate 69/55= decline of 1.25 cm per year

and l meant to say thanks for the post on the change of the direction of the Lewellen current off the WA coast.
I have never looked into that so might check it out one day soon.
The earth is known to accelerate its rotational spin during solar minimum and vice versa for solar maximum.
Some scientists link this to change in current direction.
Posted by: Seina

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 30/05/2019 20:51

Originally Posted By: crikey
The earth is known to accelerate its rotational spin during solar minimum and vice versa for solar maximum.

How is it known, and to what degree?
Posted by: crikey

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 31/05/2019 19:17

Good evening 'seina'

When researching this topic use the phrase 'length of day'
how is it known.?
Wikopedia has info'

For research on the connection to climate. The tallbloke blog hosts a range of astrophysicists who link their knowledge with climate data
https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/?s=length+of+day

and
the comment sections on these blogs always provide further info'
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/10/03/length-of-day-correlated-to-cosmic-rays-and-sunspots/
-------


The length of day variability is linked to , solar system dynamics, cosmic rays, volcanoes , movements in the earths molten core, major wind systems, magnetic variabilty

Some scientists have correlated length of day phases with climate epochs and phases
.In particular in the shorter cycle range, the De Vries and Gleisburg cycles .
One example here.
https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Duri..._fig3_284205134

Posted by: RC

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 01/06/2019 07:10

Looks like the MJO which was predicted to be null by now has decided not to play fair.

Are we now going to see a strong easterly wind burst?
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 01/06/2019 07:39

I think it was more like the collapse to null was predicted to start about now, which is still forecast, but slower and later. But the MJO has moved much faster than forecast and is into the Indian Ocean, as it was originally forecast to stall for a few days roughly near where it was on the 28th before then heading towards null. GFS short range likes a significant burst of trades in the next week or two, but EC is going pretty neutral.

Posted by: snowbooby

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 02/06/2019 11:17

Anomalous current driving eastwards from dateline at about 7 to 10 north and wondering how it's likely to affect upwelling
if at all but presumably will impact the meridional spread of negative ssta's, as trades look to be ramping up

Similar current was present for April.



Posted by: Locke

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 03/06/2019 10:52

The rainfall outlook from BOM through Winter is for a high likelihood of below average rainfall across most of the Eastern part of the country.

However BOM have also advised that although we are still on an El Nino watch, most models are showing a switch to Neutral by late Winter/ Early Spring.

I wonder what they think will be driving the drier conditions. Isn't a positive IOD supposed to only impact Southern parts of the country?
Posted by: CoastalStorm22

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 03/06/2019 11:06

Originally Posted By: adon
I think the reporting got messed up. From memory, the volcano has a potential to produce a VEI 6 eruption based on previous eruptions. I think the last one would have struggled to be a 4


Thanks Adon,I figured that may have been the case.

What are peoples thoughts of the models toying with the possibility if nasty looking +IOD developing this winter/spring?

The index already looking quite positive at were only just into June.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 03/06/2019 11:31

Originally Posted By: Locke


However BOM have also advised that although we are still on an El Nino watch, most models are showing a switch to Neutral by late Winter/ Early Spring.


Is that a switch to neutral from el nino or la nina conditions to neutral? Admittedly they do describe it as 'easing away from El Nino levels'.





I'd characterise the models as forecasting more of the same.

Two question marks though, first whether the model forecasts should be revised upwards to take into account the impact of the latest WWB - my best guess is that they are yet to take that into account, and will revise upwards once they get a handle on it. Second question mark is why CFS is forecasting a return to more neutral trade winds at short, medium and long range. Is CFS onto something, or with the amount of warm water in central Pac presumably likely to favour further westerly activity, has it lost the plot?
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 03/06/2019 18:31

Originally Posted By: Locke
The rainfall outlook from BOM through Winter is for a high likelihood of below average rainfall across most of the Eastern part of the country.

However BOM have also advised that although we are still on an El Nino watch, most models are showing a switch to Neutral by late Winter/ Early Spring.

I wonder what they think will be driving the drier conditions. Isn't a positive IOD supposed to only impact Southern parts of the country?


Unfavourable IOD impacts right up into the north eastern topics. BoM's latest outlook map typifies IOD impact.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 03/06/2019 22:04

I think Locke’s comment was tongue-in-cheek CF wink
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/06/2019 07:38

Ok. I missed it.

Same influence as last year.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/06/2019 07:52

BOM's outlook has strongest rainfall defeciencies in eastern Australia.



Typical ENSO impacts are strongest in eastern Australia.



Typical IOD impact in winter is strongest much further west:



Also note that typical IOD impact includes the influence of ENSO (and ENSO impacts include IOD) as ENSO tends to occur together with IOD. Much of the influence of IOD on eastern Australian rainfall is due to ENSO occurring at the same time (as is the influence of ENSO on rainfall further west).
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/06/2019 07:55

Problem is we are NOT in a classic moderate to strong El Niño.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/06/2019 08:05

Yeah we are. We've been in elnino for the past 30 years. Didn't you know?
Posted by: adon

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/06/2019 09:12

Social media reporting a largish eruption in Mexico. Official reporting not up yet but claimed to reached up to 11km altitude.

https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/popocat...EDIA-RPRTS.html
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/06/2019 10:10

Originally Posted By: Kino
Problem is we are NOT in a classic moderate to strong El Niño.


That doesn't make the resemblance of the forecast to what is typical in an el nino go away.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/06/2019 10:15

No, but this does:

Originally Posted By: BoM
Models indicate the tropical Pacific Ocean will ease away from El Niño levels, becoming neutral during winter. The Indian Ocean is expected to become the dominant influence on Australian climate, with models predicting a positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is likely to develop in the coming months.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/06/2019 10:38

No it doesn't. The forecast rainfall deficiencies clearly resemble El nino much more than they do an IOD.

And how can conditions 'become neutral' if we are not in el nino?

If conditions do become neutral than perhaps that rainfall forecast will be wrong.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/06/2019 10:48

Pretty sure the above clarifies every thing you speculate about. No El Nino. No ENSO driver. IOD main climate driver.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/06/2019 11:15

JMA say el nino. NCEP say el nino. BOM say we are moving away from something to neutral.

Your 'no el nino' is looking pretty silly.

Also to quote BOM

Quote:
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral.


If there is no El nino because BOM haven't declared it, then there is no IOD either.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/06/2019 13:07

* It's not "my no El Nino", its the BoM's.
* The BoM, which I have pointed out frequently, have said El Nino like conditions BUT the atmosphere never coupled so its not classified as an El Nino. Is that clear enough?
* As for the silly "no IoD comment" where do I start - Locke's comment was about the rainfall outlook - which assuming you understand is a forecast into the future and NOT the current scenario. I don't think anyone has claimed the IOD is driving the climate right this second, aside from yourself.

You then posted the Jun - Aug Classic El Nino map, disingenuously, trying to mislead that it was ENSO behind the BoM rainfall outlook map. It was pointed out to you, clearly and several times, that this was incorrect as the BoM had clearly and concisely stated that ENSO is forecast (by the same models you use) to move to neutral and that the forecast +IOD would be the main climate driver.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/06/2019 14:26

Originally Posted By: Kino
No, but this does:

Originally Posted By: BoM
Models indicate the tropical Pacific Ocean will ease away from El Niño levels, becoming neutral during winter. The Indian Ocean is expected to become the dominant influence on Australian climate, with models predicting a positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is likely to develop in the coming months.


Well fancy that.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/06/2019 14:34

I didn't make any specific claim that ENSO was the driving force behind the rainfall forecast. I simply pointed out that the rainfall deficiencies are mostly in places that are most strongly influenced by ENSO, and not in places that are influenced by IOD. The implications of that are of course obvious, but it appears you wish to pretend those implications don't exist because 'no el nino'.

I am glad you realise that any statement that the IOD cannot have influence on the rainfall because it has not been declared by the BOM is silly. That would be as silly as saying that because BOM have not declared el nino that ENSO cannot have an impact on rainfall.

Keep in mind that the rainfall forecast under discussion is based on POAMA model output, and not on the official BOM statement of ENSO status. The POAMA forecast is for nino 3.4 to be above el nino threshold for June, at el nino threshold for July, and below el nino threshold for August, but still closer to el nino threshold than to 0. While not enough to be officially declared el nino, it is obvious this is enough to have signficant el nino like implications for rainfall.

Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/06/2019 16:01

Originally Posted By: Kino
* It's not "my no El Nino", its the BoM's.
* The BoM, which I have pointed out frequently, have said El Nino like conditions BUT the atmosphere never coupled so its not classified as an El Nino. Is that clear enough?
* As for the silly "no IoD comment" where do I start - Locke's comment was about the rainfall outlook - which assuming you understand is a forecast into the future and NOT the current scenario. I don't think anyone has claimed the IOD is driving the climate right this second, aside from yourself.

You then posted the Jun - Aug Classic El Nino map, disingenuously, trying to mislead that it was ENSO behind the BoM rainfall outlook map. It was pointed out to you, clearly and several times, that this was incorrect as the BoM had clearly and concisely stated that ENSO is forecast (by the same models you use) to move to neutral and that the forecast +IOD would be the main climate driver.


This is the guy that missed the last LaNina completely despite claiming that ENSO is his thing whilst admitting he has little knowledge of the Indian Ocean's impact. You are piddling into the wind.

When even Ken Kato , arguably the most valued contributor in the Sth East QLD threads and infinitely more knowledgable could not get through you are no chance.
Posted by: Mcbobbings

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/06/2019 16:10

Looking at other drivers at the moment, the SAM is doing a bit of a see saw between positive and negative at the moment. I expect that downward trend to continue towards the end of the month, hopefully we can get some more strong fronts but moisture might be a problem

Posted by: CoastalStorm22

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/06/2019 16:41

Yes, SAM returning its usual almost permanent positive phase, you can kiss the regular frontal activity goodbye if that comes to fruition.
Posted by: amphetamarine

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/06/2019 22:51

Is climate driven by graphs?
Posted by: amphetamarine

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/06/2019 00:05

Do hot air balloons heat the atmosphere?
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/06/2019 06:49

Originally Posted By: ColdFront


This is the guy that missed the last LaNina completely despite claiming that ENSO is his thing

Its the stopped clock again stuck in the past. Do you think you make this forum a better place by bringing up arguments from two years ago?


Originally Posted By: ColdFront
whilst admitting he has little knowledge of the Indian Ocean's impact.


Yes I have little knowledge of the Indian Ocean impact. But it doesn't take much too recognize that the impacts of IOD are much further west than the forecast rainfall deficiencies.

If there are any posters in this forum that do have more than a little knowledge of IOD impacts I'd be curious if they have an opinion on the implications of the fact that currently the IOD state is driven more by warm water in the west than cool water in the east. The opinion of someone who only knows a little about IOD is that this would mean atmospheric circulation would reflect a typical IOD mostly on the west side of the Indian and not on the east, hence limited impact on Australian rainfall. But maybe someone with more knowledge could explain it better.

It also doens't take much knowledge of IOD to realise that IOD events tend to be driven by the ENSO state. A few months ago I made this comment and pointed out it was likely that we would see a +ve IOD due to the likely ENSO state. Of course I'm sure pointing this out will raise yet more cries of 'no el nino' even though NCEP and JMA state el nino exists, and BOM refer to the weakening of an 'el nino like pattern' in the Pacific.


Originally Posted By: ColdFront
You are piddling into the wind.

When even Ken Kato , arguably the most valued contributor in the Sth East QLD threads and infinitely more knowledgable could not get through you are no chance.


Your mother was a hamster and your father smelt of elderberries.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/06/2019 07:28

Ken Kato was on the various news channels yesterday in a great interview I thought. Well done Ken .
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/06/2019 07:50

Originally Posted By: amphetamarine
Is climate driven by graphs?


You'd think so sometimes. Especially if you spend your days in here.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/06/2019 08:10

I probably should have put this up yesterday. Depending on the source they all show an impact over much of the area well up into Eastern Qld with BoM have in their latest release. The basics are the same. Dry air incursion from the nth west and subsequent drought and bushfires , much like last year. smile

Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/06/2019 08:48

That shows were there is at least minimal impact of IOD.

A more detailed look shows that the impact of IOD is stronger in central Australia and weaker on the east.



And of course ENSO and IOD occur together most of the time. If you do an anlaysis to separate out the impact of ENSO from IOD, then the impact of IOD in Qld and a good part of NSW disspears. IOD only results in altered rainfall in this area when it occurs together with ENSO.



On the flip side the same can be done with ENSO. If ENSO occurs without IOD then anomalies in SA, VIC and southern NSW tend to disappear and only appear when ENSO and IOD occur together.

Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/06/2019 09:02

Originally Posted By: CoastalStorm22
Yes, SAM returning its usual almost permanent positive phase, you can kiss the regular frontal activity goodbye if that comes to fruition.


Nice to see not everyone is obsessed with ElNino and rightly so. Blinkers have no place in global climate driver discussion.

A good article on SAM which some may have already seen.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-14/southern-annular-mode-and-how-it-affects-our-weather/10106134

...and a refresher on the importance of the Indian Ocean . I have done a cut and snip highlight from the article. The studies are in their relative infancy when compared to the Pacific.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-12-07/indian-ocean-dipole-dominant-cause-drought/10571802



Given our pressure systems move west to east it is entirely logical . The Pacific relies on coupling for a given ENSO state to take hold. Without it there is no defined LaNina / ElNina as has been the case for sometime now.

Interestingly, according to the notes on both the southern annular mode and the Indian Ocean Dipole there may be some degree of "tug of war" regarding precip on the Qld coast if both are positive.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/06/2019 10:11

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
That shows were there is at least minimal impact of IOD.

A more detailed look shows that the impact of IOD is stronger in central Australia and weaker on the east.



Who said anything about strength? So finally you admit it does impact. Great. No more irrelevant graphs.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/06/2019 10:13

Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Originally Posted By: CoastalStorm22
Yes, SAM returning its usual almost permanent positive phase, you can kiss the regular frontal activity goodbye if that comes to fruition.


Nice to see not everyone is obsessed with ElNino and rightly so. Blinkers have no place in global climate driver discussion.

A good article on SAM which some may have already seen.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-14/southern-annular-mode-and-how-it-affects-our-weather/10106134

...and a refresher on the importance of the Indian Ocean . I have done a cut and snip highlight from the article. The studies are in their relative infancy when compared to the Pacific.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-12-07/indian-ocean-dipole-dominant-cause-drought/10571802



Given our pressure systems move west to east it is entirely logical . The Pacific relies on coupling for a given ENSO state to take hold. Without it there is no defined LaNina / ElNina as has been the case for sometime now.

Interestingly, according to the notes on both the southern annular mode and the Indian Ocean Dipole there may be some degree of "tug of war" regarding precip on the Qld coast if both are positive.


Be nice to see more work done on the AAO/SAM. I find the model used is more reactive than predictive.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/06/2019 10:21

Ahh yes, the great twist of fact again in the anomalies charts. And of course that is smoothed. Every impact varies .I see nothing's changed here. Hence why I opted for the ignore feature. It's a shame the quoted posts don't get blocked also.

Of course that map shows the strongest impact is over an area that gets little rain in Winter anyway. By contrast the areas that do near the Great Divided Range and Northern Tasmania would be suffering a higher rainfall loss as far as volume is concerned but let's not do fact. It has no place here apparently.

When people are dismissing climate experts and all the evidence for their own need to get ElNino over the line "just because" it becomes a total farce.

Originally Posted By: Kino


Be nice to see more work done on the AAO/SAM. I find the model used is more reactive than predictive.


I feel that's a reasonable assessment of all climate models. Here's one for thinkers. Perhaps ENSO is a response to the Indian given the movement of atmospheric systems around the globe.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/06/2019 10:31

Originally Posted By: ColdFront
I feel that's a reasonable assessment of all climate models. Here's one for thinkers. Perhaps ENSO is a response to the Indian given the movement of atmospheric systems around the globe.


Interesting...that well could be the key as clearly the Pacific isn't otherwise the last few years would have had stronger responses (and no the drought IMO has nothing to do with ENSO given we had a La Nina wedged in there and QLD did very well last summer).
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/06/2019 10:40

Yeah the ocean tried to play ball in the Pacific but not the atmosphere. It's easy to take the lazy route and suggest it was "just because there weren't enough WWB's" but we've seen ElNino take hold much easier in previous years on much more flimsy feed. Why didn't the atmosphere couple? All the other ingredients were there. Some quite strong WWB's in fact.

The atmospheric response is a driver of those reinforced and "true" WWB's that Michael Ventrice refers to.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/06/2019 10:44

I prefer to get my information from the actual published research published by a scientists, not what a journalist may or may not have misquoted.

Caroline Ummenhofer's hypothesis is that multi-year droughts are driven by IOD. It is not about year to year variation in rainfall. It is also about the area 'SE Australia', which is a very small area, approximately equal to Victoria. This area is also in the area which the data I quote suggests IOD impact may be greater than ENSO.

She notes that strong multi-year droughts in this area are not fully explained by ENSO variations, but that they have also occurred in periods during which no -ve IOD events have occurred. There does seem to have been a couple -ve IOD events since this was published, coinciding with multi-year drought in that region, but I'm not sure if that invalidates here hypothesis or not.

Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/06/2019 10:47

From BOM:

Quote:
The Pacific Ocean and overlying atmosphere remain close to El Niño thresholds,


The atmosphere responded pretty much as expected given the amount of surface heating.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/06/2019 11:14

And yet, amazingly, it didn't couple despite all the WWB's and favourable ingredients.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/06/2019 11:39

BOM haven't said anything about not coupling for several months now. They have said that both SST and atmosphere are close to el nino thresholds. Sounds coupled to me.

And all those WWBs reflect warm water causing westerly winds, and the westerly winds causing warm water. Sounds coupled to me. If coupling is defined as being an atmospheric response that sustains the warming, I note this warm event has been sustained for signficantly longer than a typical el nino, which is usually over by now.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/06/2019 11:49

Oh wait - so now they say something you agree with you're using them? But when they say no El Nino you conveniently ignore it - no wait - deride it? Okies. Didn't, hasn't and won't. Game, set & match.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/06/2019 13:07

Ahaha. No wonder so many have switched off. I an guessing he is referring to the past few months whilst ignoring the previous 18 by your response. Predictable at least.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/06/2019 13:30

Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Ahaha. No wonder so many have switched off. I an guessing he is referring to the past few months whilst ignoring the previous 18 by your response. Predictable at least.


Very perceptive indeed wink
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/06/2019 13:41

I figured as much. You just can't take any of it seriously anymore. Way to trash a once great discussion.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/06/2019 14:03

Originally Posted By: Kino
Oh wait - so now they say something you agree with you're using them? But when they say no El Nino you conveniently ignore it - no wait - deride it? Okies. Didn't, hasn't and won't. Game, set & match.


Three months ago I believed that the atmosphere was responding to the warm SSTs because thats what the data showed.

Now I believe that the atmosphere is still responding to the warm SSTs because thats what the data shows.

Three months ago you were yelling 'BOM says no coupling' because you wanted that to mean 'nothing with the slightest resemblance to el nino exists'. Now that BOM says 'el nino like', you want to ignore it and try imply that I'm the one being inconsistent.

Sad.
Posted by: GringosRain

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/06/2019 14:59

Vapour and cloud has been pouring across northern Australia for days now. Apparently coming from an area of lower SST anomalies to an area of higher SST anomalies. Looks like a Timor/Arafura - Coral sea dipole effect.
There would be sufficient moisture there to trigger some decent events and the origin of the moisture is widening and spreading further west. Good to see in at a time of impending +IOD, and shows even when everything looks to be stacked out of favour interesting dynamics can setup and change things.

P.s re the above post.... if the atmosphere (in the pacific) is responding to warm SST's, its showing a pretty nice trade wind burst. What happens when the effects of the last WWB are over and all the warm surface water is dissipated? Trying hard to switch cool it seems.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/06/2019 15:56

Originally Posted By: GringosRain

P.s re the above post.... if the atmosphere (in the pacific) is responding to warm SST's, its showing a pretty nice trade wind burst. What happens when the effects of the last WWB are over and all the warm surface water is dissipated? Trying hard to switch cool it seems.


There has been a clear dominance of westerly activity to the west of the warm water for quite a few months now. There have been regular short periods of near normal trades in between each WWB. GFS seems to be forecasting a trade surge a bit stronger, but EC is more reserved. Have to wait and see whether it is as strong as GFS forecast.

Current WWB is definitely now over. The warm water will tend to dissapate until the next WWB. With near normal trade winds it would take a couple months to get back to 0 - especially near the dateline where WWBs are driven from (except in strong east based events). Further east much quicker. So depends on whether the next WWB is triggered when the MJO next gets back to the pacific.

If trade winds are normal to above normal for an extended period of time (a month or more) then it would appear that the influence of warm water on the atmosphere has stopped. Until that happens it hasn't.

Lastest MJO. Definitely gone past the stall and fade that was forecast for near the edge of the Indian zone. Still forecast to fade somewhat, and look a little on the slow side as well, potentially delaying the next arrival in the Pacific.

Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/06/2019 16:16

Originally Posted By: GringosRain
Vapour and cloud has been pouring across northern Australia for days now. Apparently coming from an area of lower SST anomalies to an area of higher SST anomalies. Looks like a Timor/Arafura - Coral sea dipole effect.
There would be sufficient moisture there to trigger some decent events and the origin of the moisture is widening and spreading further west. Good to see in at a time of impending +IOD, and shows even when everything looks to be stacked out of favour interesting dynamics can setup and change things.

P.s re the above post.... if the atmosphere (in the pacific) is responding to warm SST's, its showing a pretty nice trade wind burst. What happens when the effects of the last WWB are over and all the warm surface water is dissipated? Trying hard to switch cool it seems.


EL NIÑO of course Gringos! 😂
Posted by: snowbooby

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/06/2019 21:29

...even if conditions head to neutral for awhile I think a return to el nino is a distinct possibility given the pmm index is fairly strongly positive (both sst and wind) for may as it has been for the feb-april period...
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/06/2019 23:42

From neutral El Niño or La Niña are always a distinct possibility....🙄
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 06/06/2019 07:10

Originally Posted By: snowbooby
...even if conditions head to neutral for awhile I think a return to el nino is a distinct possibility given the pmm index is fairly strongly positive (both sst and wind) for may as it has been for the feb-april period...


Where is your data source for pmm index?

Clearly the pmm is a big part of why the normal el nino transition phase in Autumn failed. Does look to me like the pmm might be easing somewhat.

South Pacific Meridional mode looks like it might still be in a cool mode, and will have more impact in Spring, but there is probably too much warm water in central pacific for this to do anything more than push things into a modoki phase.
Posted by: snowbooby

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 06/06/2019 21:06

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Originally Posted By: snowbooby
...even if conditions head to neutral for awhile I think a return to el nino is a distinct possibility given the pmm index is fairly strongly positive (both sst and wind) for may as it has been for the feb-april period...


Where is your data source for pmm index?

Clearly the pmm is a big part of why the normal el nino transition phase in Autumn failed. Does look to me like the pmm might be easing somewhat.

South Pacific Meridional mode looks like it might still be in a cool mode, and will have more impact in Spring, but there is probably too much warm water in central pacific for this to do anything more than push things into a modoki phase.


I may be playing catch up here. I hadn't realised 18/19 was a weak nino.

I was thinking of the seasonal footprinting mechanism (from "Impact of Extratropical Atmospheric Variability on ENSO", Alexander, Vimont et al).

As I read the above, the cool bias of 17/18 is unlikely to be followed by a strong nino despite a strongly positive PMM index for autumn 2018.

The generally positive pmm this autumn (may figures seem a bump up, though admittedly the index isn't as strong overall), would steer away from nina and confirm the present outlook of models.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 07/06/2019 05:39

Originally Posted By: snowbooby

I may be playing catch up here. I hadn't realised 18/19 was a weak nino.



It wasn't strong enough to reach BOM thresholds, but did meet NCEP criteria, and was also called by JMA. Two key el nino decay mechanisms have been clearly active, strengthened NW high pressure system pushing WWB activity south of the equator was clearly active, and exhaustion of warm subsurface in the west resulting in a large drop in heat content.

Strengthened NE high hasn't really happened, clearly the PMM contributes. Possibly the fact the event was weak may have contributed (i.e. event being strong enough to trigger some but not all el nino aspects).

Also being a modoki event with atmospheric impacts being much more in west pac than in east pac, and there seems to be a definite association of modoki with multi-year el nino like 91-95 and 2002-2005, with back to back warm years some of which are borderline or a bit under el nino threshold, and a continuously warm nino 4, which is what we've seen so far this event, and is forecast for the rest of the year.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 07/06/2019 16:48

IOD and ENSO interactions.



I've marked what I consider typical El Nino and +ve IOD SSTs on the current SST map. The match is certainly not exact, but shows some resemblance to an idealised combination of IOD and El Nino. This will involve cooler water in the eastern Indian Ocean, and particularly south of Sumatra and a warm pool in western Indian Ocean making up the IOD, and a warm pool in the Pacific making up the El Nino.

This results in a Matsuma Gill atmospheric circulation anomaly. Southerlies are enhanced over the cool pool and to the south of the equator, and westerlies flow towards the Pacific warm pool, and easterlies towards the Indian warm pool.

In the Pacific, the westerly winds associated with this pattern are strongly reinforcing. These winds push warm water from the west towards the central Pacific. They reduce the wind speed in a normally easterly regime and so reduce evaporative cooling. Kelvin wave activity reduces upwelling of cool water and allows the surface to warm. These +ve feedbacks are opposed by the tendency towards increased cloudiness which cools the surface.

In contrast along the equatorial Indian Ocean this pattern is not self reinforcing. The west and east sides are close to the same temperature. The typical wind regime is weakly westerly, so enhanced westerlies over the warm pool do not reduce evaporative cooling, and easterly anomalies in the east can actually result in less cooling unless they are strong. There is no significant upwelling of cool water below, so Kelvin wave type variatons have much less impact.

However once we go south of Sumatra there are +ve feedbacks that can reinforce this pattern, but only for part of the year. During SH winter and Spring, southerlies prevail in this region. Cool water tends to enhance these southerlies and increase evaporative cooling. Once the monsoon arrives though the regime becomes NW. Southerlies reduce convection and cloudiness, and reduce wind speed and so allow warming.

So in Autumn variations in the Pacific will tend to amplify towards either el nino or La Nina. Whereas variations in the Indian tend to return towards neutral. By June there will often be a tendency towards either el nino or La Nina in Pacific Ocean, but often far from set in stone. This will push the Indian Ocean to the matching pattern, but not strongly enough to guarantee that IOD always matches ENSO, as other factors will also influence the Indian, and ENSO will still be in early development. Whatever is happening in Indian in June will then tend to amplify, either reinforced or opposed by whatever ENSO is doing.
Posted by: snowbooby

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 07/06/2019 22:41

And from the other side(of the equator) do the cooler waters of the pacific n-w contribute any easterly influence?
Posted by: Funkyseefunkydo

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 07/06/2019 23:33

Aao positive and suddenly the gfs 2 week Mlsp looks like summer. I very much hope this is not a sign of things to come.
FYI. SOI has now been neg since mid feb.
Posted by: ashestoashes

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 08/06/2019 00:18

The ENSO influenced IOD rainfall chart and the Rainfall probabilities have a uncanny resemblance. Apart from the few areas in the tropics which suggest to me ridging will be strong along the East Coast, hence strong Easterlies, hence the wetter conditions.

Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 08/06/2019 05:43

Originally Posted By: snowbooby
And from the other side(of the equator) do the cooler waters of the pacific n-w contribute any easterly influence?



I'd generally associate cool waters in NW Pacific with el nino or warm PDO, depending on where they are. If you mean the cooler water currently near Japan that looks like some tendency towards a warm PDO pattern, but its a bit confused with some warm water out that way as well.

I generally get the impression that SST anomalies away from the equator on the west side of an ocean are forced by atmospheric variation, and don't tend to be self reinforcing, whereas atmospheric variations away from the equator on the east side of an ocean do tend to be much more self reinforcing.

For example warm water in Tasman sea is forced by extended periods of high pressure, and I don't think there is anything about warm water in the Tasman Sea that encourages high pressure to continue, and if anything would encourage low pressure, but presumably influences from outside the Tasman Sea override this and keep the high pressure present.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 08/06/2019 11:40

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
IOD and ENSO interactions.



I've marked what I consider typical El Nino and +ve IOD SSTs on the current SST map. The match is certainly not exact, but shows some resemblance to an idealised combination of IOD and El Nino. This will involve cooler water in the eastern Indian Ocean, and particularly south of Sumatra and a warm pool in western Indian Ocean making up the IOD, and a warm pool in the Pacific making up the El Nino.

This results in a Matsuma Gill atmospheric circulation anomaly. Southerlies are enhanced over the cool pool and to the south of the equator, and westerlies flow towards the Pacific warm pool, and easterlies towards the Indian warm pool.

In the Pacific, the westerly winds associated with this pattern are strongly reinforcing. These winds push warm water from the west towards the central Pacific. They reduce the wind speed in a normally easterly regime and so reduce evaporative cooling. Kelvin wave activity reduces upwelling of cool water and allows the surface to warm. These +ve feedbacks are opposed by the tendency towards increased cloudiness which cools the surface.

In contrast along the equatorial Indian Ocean this pattern is not self reinforcing. The west and east sides are close to the same temperature. The typical wind regime is weakly westerly, so enhanced westerlies over the warm pool do not reduce evaporative cooling, and easterly anomalies in the east can actually result in less cooling unless they are strong. There is no significant upwelling of cool water below, so Kelvin wave type variatons have much less impact.

However once we go south of Sumatra there are +ve feedbacks that can reinforce this pattern, but only for part of the year. During SH winter and Spring, southerlies prevail in this region. Cool water tends to enhance these southerlies and increase evaporative cooling. Once the monsoon arrives though the regime becomes NW. Southerlies reduce convection and cloudiness, and reduce wind speed and so allow warming.

So in Autumn variations in the Pacific will tend to amplify towards either el nino or La Nina. Whereas variations in the Indian tend to return towards neutral. By June there will often be a tendency towards either el nino or La Nina in Pacific Ocean, but often far from set in stone. This will push the Indian Ocean to the matching pattern, but not strongly enough to guarantee that IOD always matches ENSO, as other factors will also influence the Indian, and ENSO will still be in early development. Whatever is happening in Indian in June will then tend to amplify, either reinforced or opposed by whatever ENSO is doing.




....except the trades are blowing in strongly through the PNG_Indonesia region!:

Posted by: Eigerwand

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 08/06/2019 12:12

Can't say that looks much like and El Nino setup for mind.
Posted by: Mega

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 08/06/2019 16:28

Subsurface appears to be warming again.

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDYOC007.gif
Posted by: Mega

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 09/06/2019 10:48

Sick of this warm-neutral crap tbh. What will it take to push us back to a cool episode again?
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 09/06/2019 14:16

Definitely warming along the thermocline beneath the dateline.
Posted by: amphetamarine

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 10/06/2019 01:30

Sea volcano.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 13/06/2019 10:39

MJO has continued through the La Nina friendly Indian Ocean zones, and even stalled briefly.



However this is resulting in only average trade winds and minimal cooling of the central pacific.



Meanwhile the subsurface cool water have been replaced by subsurface warmth as a result of the previous WWB. However historically a WWB of that size in a multi-year warm set up would result in a larger Kelvin wave, maybe something more like the previous warm wave through Feb/March.



Curiously there is quite a lot of subsurface warmth in the NW of the TAO zone. This typically occurs during el nino to la nina transition years, but can also occur in multi-year warm years. It is hard to understand why this water has warmed. Perhaps there is some Rosby wave activity pushing warm water back into the west despite the recent westerlies trying to push it the other way. Perhaps the warm water came from further north. A strong WWB might be able to push this warm subsurface into the equator and potentially strengthen future warm kelvin waves.



GFS and CFS had previously hinted at trade winds returning to normal on a more extended basis allowing a possible return towards true neutral, however forecasts at all ranges show a return of further westerly activity and no easing of the warmth in the forecast period.



Generally looking at model forecasts there is some hint of conditions cooling towards the east of the Pacific, but all models seem to maintain nino 4 at current levels.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 13/06/2019 10:58

I'm surprised anyone still relies on CFSv2 as it has been horrendously wrong - only 2 weeks ago it was forecasting significant cooling to neutral levels

Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 13/06/2019 11:48

I note SST at E side of Nino.3 is now cooled to 23C. Plenty of trade winds at that location, so I expect Nino.3 to cool over the next week or so.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 14/06/2019 17:48

A little bit more digging into how various experts/agencies consider the current event, using a google NEWS search for modoki.

Current event counts as modoki according to NASA, with a clear atmospheric response typical of Modoki, although this report is from April.

According to Indian Metereological Agency current conditions are weak el nino.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 14/06/2019 21:46

So even the experts can’t agree ergo it’s just warm neutral. Close but no cigar.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 15/06/2019 06:27

The experts don't agree, therefore the experts that agree with Kino are right.

Of course.
Posted by: Eigerwand

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 15/06/2019 08:25

Looking at the current synoptic charts it looks to me like the Hadley Cell Expansion theory makes a pretty good fit to current weather conditions across the country. I note in the last SST chart Mike put up most of the Pacific and Indian oceans are on the warmer side.

Seems to me it all fits rather well with the theory; the polar front becomes more wavey as the temp differential between the poles and equator decreases, resulting in the frontal action we saw the other week but then the flip side is long periods stuck in an enormously large ‘horse latitude’ as per nearly the last 2 weeks with little sign of change.

Tuesday’s chart has highs of 1029hpa sitting as far south as the the southern tip of South Island NZ, more than 45S....

A far more compelling explanation than weak El Niño etc.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 15/06/2019 11:02

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
The experts don't agree, therefore the experts that agree with Kino are right.

Of course.


Oh the irony of this statement....the guy who said Modoki, proved wrong, then switched to El Niño and still wrong so shops around on Google for someone who agrees with him. 😂😂😂😂😂😂
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 15/06/2019 11:03

Originally Posted By: Eigerwand
Looking at the current synoptic charts it looks to me like the Hadley Cell Expansion theory makes a pretty good fit to current weather conditions across the country. I note in the last SST chart Mike put up most of the Pacific and Indian oceans are on the warmer side.

Seems to me it all fits rather well with the theory; the polar front becomes more wavey as the temp differential between the poles and equator decreases, resulting in the frontal action we saw the other week but then the flip side is long periods stuck in an enormously large ‘horse latitude’ as per nearly the last 2 weeks with little sign of change.

Tuesday’s chart has highs of 1029hpa sitting as far south as the the southern tip of South Island NZ, more than 45S....

A far more compelling explanation than weak El Niño etc.



Interesting analysis....and what is causing the expansion, that’s the Q?
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 15/06/2019 17:49

Originally Posted By: Kino


Oh the irony of this statement....the guy who said Modoki, proved wrong, then switched to El Niño and still wrong so shops around on Google for someone who agrees with him. 😂😂😂😂😂😂


No one proved me wrong about modoki. The only argument raised was that it is warm in the east, which totally ignores the fact that all previous modoki el ninos have been warm in the east. Most events for the entire period, and 2004 being the prime exception with cool anomalies in the east, but only for a few months. The event was a moderately strong modoki event, reaching a peak modoki index of 0.55 compared to a threshold of just under 0.3.

I have never said this is specifically an el nino. It is not an el nino according to classical east based criteria as specified by BOM, but is by weaker criteria specified by NCEP. However I have repeatedly compared current conditions to an el nino, and expected that generally the future behaviour should continue to be quite el nino like. Every time I make a comparsion to el nino conditions you come out with your 'no el nino' claims, despite the fact that multiple agencies have declared el nino, and the one agency that has said that el nino like conditions exist. Therefore all agencies clearly agree that comparing current conditions to an el nino event is appropriate.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 15/06/2019 18:31

Mike - If you've never said this event was an El Nino, you certainly quoted lots of agencies that thought it was!
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 15/06/2019 18:35

So “multi year Nino events” doesn’t count? 😂😂😂😂😂

👀
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 15/06/2019 22:34

FWIW Mt Sinabung has erupted again, ash cloud 7km into the sky.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 16/06/2019 07:07

Originally Posted By: Kino
So “multi year Nino events” doesn’t count? 😂😂😂😂😂

👀


I compared current conditions to those in a multi-year el nino event. The similarities are obvious. I never said we were actually in a multi-year el nino event.

Originally Posted By: Petros
Mike - If you've never said this event was an El Nino, you certainly quoted lots of agencies that thought it was!


In response to Kino claiming 'no el nino' everytime I compare current conditions to an el nino.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 16/06/2019 08:42

Originally Posted By: Kino
FWIW Mt Sinabung has erupted again, ash cloud 7km into the sky.


Video - https://twitter.com/rt_com/status/1139736788317147142?s=21

And Mike, please don’t misrepresent me - I’ve always said BoM have said no El Niño.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 16/06/2019 10:18

Do agree that current conditions of late, seems to be worse than el nino for large areas of Aus.

Kino - volcanic ash will certainly add the X factor to future climate trend, a quick google provides plenty of speculation that this looming solar minimum might be the catalyst.
Posted by: Mega

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 16/06/2019 13:48

No idea what the hell is going on on the subsurface: http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDYOC007.gif
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 16/06/2019 18:34

Mego - not plausible given the huge energy input to drive those changes.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 16/06/2019 18:37

My guess is data error?
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 16/06/2019 18:41

MJO progs are interesting atm. Lots of variance for where it heads from "here near Aus" at present. ...Perhaps doesn't mean much for us in Aus at winter solstice?

Pacific trades regime looks locked in for a continuation of as is for the next week or so?

.....I'm still expecting cooling into Nino.3
Posted by: RC

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 17/06/2019 10:49

To my inexperienced eyes, this image looks to me like the subsurface warming from the last WWB has peaked. Of course though what happens under the water is totally irrelevant in the short term as all the action is on the surface.

The image will change so this image is only relevant to this time period when this post was made.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/tlon_heat.gif

I think we will need a continuation of WWB's to keep the subsurface warm.
Posted by: ashestoashes

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 17/06/2019 17:48

Originally Posted By: Petros
MJO progs are interesting atm. Lots of variance for where it heads from "here near Aus" at present. ...Perhaps doesn't mean much for us in Aus at winter solstice?
Pacific trades regime looks locked in for a continuation of as is for the next week or so?
.....I'm still expecting cooling into Nino.3

Looks like confusion over MJO as usually a move into Phase 5 causes rainfall over WA, although it wants a u-turn. Which conflicts with the forecast.

Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 17/06/2019 18:58

Thanks AtoA (I think) .....means more early season frosts and continuation of drought for my stomping ground frown

I reckon the Indian Ocean needs an eye kept on it. BOM says continuation of +ve IOD/neutral. .....but looks at the temps near the Faulklands over recent days!
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 17/06/2019 18:58

oops
Posted by: Cutofflow

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 18/06/2019 00:27

Pretty solid +IOD feedback going now, highlighted in the chart below. DMI Index now bouncing off above +1c. Won't match the IOD event in '94 but could give '06 a shake.

Fortunately rainfall anomalies this year are a big contrast to those previous years mentioned. Frontal activity and moisture from the Pacific have saved us through inland Vic so far, so fingers crossed we can get through the winter growing season unscathed - I'm tipping a hard finish in spring through inland VIC, SA & NSW.

Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 18/06/2019 08:33

WWB during May in the Pacific occurred at the same time as enhanced easterlies in east Indian Ocean, which pushed IOD from -0.16 in first week of May to +0.77 in the last week.

Enhanced convection driven by warm water over the Pacific pulls convection away from Australia and East Indian, resulting in westerlies in West Pacific, and easterlies in the east Indian.



For the first part of June trade winds have surged in West Pacific. Easterly anomalies in east Indian have weakened, but still occur as the IOD event hovers near self-sustainability - IOD has droppped a little in the first couple weeks of June without the Pacific support.

Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 18/06/2019 12:24

Originally Posted By: Cutofflow
Pretty solid +IOD feedback going now, highlighted in the chart below. DMI Index now bouncing off above +1c. Won't match the IOD event in '94 but could give '06 a shake.

Fortunately rainfall anomalies this year are a big contrast to those previous years mentioned. Frontal activity and moisture from the Pacific have saved us through inland Vic so far, so fingers crossed we can get through the winter growing season unscathed - I'm tipping a hard finish in spring through inland VIC, SA & NSW.




....but which way is this tending?:

Posted by: RC

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 20/06/2019 14:49

The ENSO uncertainty period is lasting for a lot longer this year.

I think it would be a brave person to confidently predict what ENSO will be like in December.

Does not look like there will be a WWB this MJO cycle and while the shallow waters are warmer there is still a fair bit of cooler water underneath.

If anything for the time being it looks like the warm subsurface has peaked again and will need something to happen for it to re strengthen. The last WWB did not have that big of an effect as one would expect.
Posted by: amphetamarine

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 20/06/2019 17:13

Do underwater volcanoes create temperature differences in the ocean depths
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 20/06/2019 19:59

One would assume so, to what degree is unclear
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 21/06/2019 07:48

Next WWB is now underway. Forecast is a bit tricky with the MJO forecast to backtrack and fade, and trade wind forecasts suggesting a fairly mediocre WWB in the short term. However if the MJO still progresses into the Pacific beyond the short term forecast period it could build further.



The subsurface warming has been surprisingly lacklustre. One possible idea is that there is something happening with Rossby Waves and reflected subsurface cooling from the western boundary - which is stated as a theory of el nino decay, but I've never been able to clearly identify in the data.

Another thing I've been thinking about is whether contrast between easterlies and westerlies can push water together through convergence, or push up a bigger wave due to a high rate of change in trade winds. The previous WWB extended a long way east with a weak wind gradient on the eastern boundary, so it might make sense then that it has a higher impact on currents and surface warming, but lower impact on subsurface wave generation.

The current event has some strong easterly anomalies preceeding the WWB, so it will be interesting to see if that helps build a bigger wave. Or maybe the current stumble in MJO progress will result in a slow build up and make for another weaker wave. The transition from enhanced trade winds in far west to the current westerlies there is quite sharp though.



Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 21/06/2019 10:16

Is the blob on the way back? It first emerged in late 2013 and really got going in 2014. Comparing current with Same date 2013 shows warm water emerging in a very similar spot in NE Pacific. Also cool anomalies east and west both time, although the cool areas are much stronger this time. And so some unusual temperature gradients. I suspect something signficant is happening up that way, and maybe those cooler areas this time around will make for a different outcome.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 21/06/2019 11:13

Can't see anything but neutral neutral neutral for the foreseeable future - perhaps even a downgrade by the BoM to 'Inactive' next outlook.
Posted by: Mega

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 21/06/2019 15:32

To me, that WWB looks much weaker than any of the ones we had last year. Everything seems very neutral to me too...maybe just a tad warm-neutral.
Posted by: amphetamarine

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 22/06/2019 00:56

Is unclear clean energy?
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 22/06/2019 06:13

Originally Posted By: Mega
To me, that WWB looks much weaker than any of the ones we had last year.


MJO is only just barely getting into WWB generating sectors within the short range forecast period. Too early to make much conclusions on how strong this WWB may or may not be.
Posted by: ashestoashes

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 22/06/2019 14:24

Was just having a trawl through the rainfall anomalies, was absolutely shocked at the stats that have been put up. Just the sheer breadth of the deficits and the level of rainfall deficits in some very dry regions and wet regions is insane. Would take years of floods to alleviate the dryness. The Very wet Regions of Suggest some strong monsoon activity with a large amount of ridging to direct strong trades over Eastern NT and the North Tropical Coast.

Posted by: amphetamarine

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 23/06/2019 00:14

Hence why iam dubious on graphs
Posted by: Thunderstruck

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 24/06/2019 16:56

Negative to neutral IOD doing it's best to setup atm, been some very large changes in the last few weeks over the western Indian, fair deal of cooling whilst some nice warming closer to home, eroding the Nasty Ningaloo Nina to pretty weak levels now. So for now we have a bit of a lull whilst WA gets all the chocolates and then it should come back again for the S/SE of the country, but overall after a bad first 4 months, things are looking much better this year than last.

TS cool
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 25/06/2019 10:19

Agree TS. At present:

* the only equatorial monsoonal cloud is over MJO zones 2 & 7 - yet MJO is null at zone 6 and expected to stay that way for a while
* Pacific trades are strong through Nino1.2 all the way into Nino.4
* Pacific SSL is flat through the Nino regions, but showing cold water under MJO zones 6/7 and over East at Nino1.2
* SST is only 24C at Nino1.2, trades are pushing this into Nino.3 which is no longer anomalously warm
* Sub SST temps have large cool areas under the Western and Eastern regions of EQ Pacific
* IOD seems to be heading towards negative going by the dramatic cooling off Africa past week, and either way, has warm water NW of Aust

This to me is a sign that the present neutral Nino conditions are tending towards a transition to La Nina.

BUT - there is a significant easing of the present strong Pacific trades predicted to commence in a couple of days. Wonder were this takes us, and how long it might persist?
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 25/06/2019 11:32

BoM update their ENSO outlook today so that will give us an idea where they think things are heading. Still think given the current conditions that they possibly may downgrade to inactive, though most likely will stay on the alert side of things.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 25/06/2019 15:09

Originally Posted By: BoM
The immediate likelihood of El Niño developing has passed, meaning the ENSO Outlook has been reset to INACTIVE. While the possibility of El Niño can't be completely ruled out for 2019, the tropical Pacific Ocean is more likely than not to remain in an ENSO-neutral phase over the coming months.

Model outlooks indicate a positive Indian Ocean Dipole is likely to drive Australia's weather for much of the rest of 2019, meaning the likelihood of a drier than average winter–spring remains.

Oceanic and atmospheric indicators are now largely at ENSO-neutral levels. Tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures have cooled over the past fortnight but remain slightly warmer than average. Cloudiness near the Date Line and trade winds have been close to neutral over recent weeks, while the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has hovered around El Niño threshold values over the past month. With little anomalous warmth in the ocean sub-surface, most climate models indicate the tropical Pacific will continue shifting further away from El Niño thresholds through the winter.

In the Indian Ocean, waters remain average to cooler than average in eastern parts, and warmer than average further west; a pattern typical of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). While the IOD index fell below the positive IOD threshold this week, climate models indicate this is likely to be temporary, with positive IOD values forecast to persist through winter and into spring. Typically, a positive IOD brings below average winter-spring rainfall, above average temperatures, and an earlier start to the fire season for southern and central Australia.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 25/06/2019 17:53

Thanks Kino.

Interested in BOM's +ve IOD outlook. I reckon they will be proven to be wrong, ......but that is only my humble less educated observation based on current Indian Ocean surface temperature measurements now, compared to how it has transitioned over the past month, coupled with what I feel is lesser north moving ocean currents off Perth over the same period.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 26/06/2019 07:05

Cooling in the east, but since the late summer/autumn break down period has ended the dateline warm pool has if anything strengthened. The warming with the May WWB was noticeably stronger than the cooling with enhanced trade winds during the Indian Ocean side of the MJO cycle.



Classic el nino modoki, and models forecast more of the same, with further cooling in nino 3, less cooling in 3.4, and no cooling in nino 4.

On IOD CFS is not having a bar of the forecast +ve IOD and forecast Indian Ocean SSTs looks dead neutral. BOM do not consider CFS, not sure if that is because it is no good at forecasting IOD, or perhaps because CFS does not issue a specific forecast for the IOD index (but presumably BOM could still calculate it for themselves from CFS grid data).

The trend towards +ve IOD has certainly eased as the westerly activity in Pacific has eased over the last few weeks. Forecast for the next two weeks is for the current WWB to develop further, and for easterly anomalies to develop in the east Indian Ocean at the same time, so presumably we will also see renewed cooling there in the next week or two. GFS seems to have much weaker easterlies forecast than EC, which seems to correspond to CFS not being interested in a +ve IOD.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 26/06/2019 07:36

The Indian still dictating our weather just as it has done the past couple of years now Kino.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 26/06/2019 10:14

Mike a warm pool at dateline to N.G. is to me, Nino neutral, esp. when temps in Nino3.4 are cooler.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 26/06/2019 11:05

Classic Modoki? One cannot be serious. Dead neutral, as I (and others) predicted. Nothing happening in the Pacific at all, all the action is Indian & Southern based at present. Hopefully that -AAO delivers.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 26/06/2019 11:26

Originally Posted By: Petros
Mike a warm pool at dateline to N.G. is to me, Nino neutral, esp. when temps in Nino3.4 are cooler.


From Ashok et al which defines Modoki:



Warmest temperatures in el nino modoki are right on the dateline.

Even in a weak non-modoki el nino such as 06/07 warm water on the dateline is prominent, with warm water to the east appearing later and joining the dateline warm water only near peak. Throughout the entire event westerly anomalies were on the western flank of the dateline warm pool.



Warm water on the dateline is the prime engine for driving an el nino.
Posted by: KevD

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 26/06/2019 11:28

With you on that one Kino. Dead neutral right now and if you look at the patterns there is an increasing amount of cold water moving across under the Pacific. Looks like a definite neutral or Nina to me. The last WWB did very little and there is no immediate sign that I can see of another one any time soon. About time too. Had enough of this dry.
Posted by: snowbooby

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 26/06/2019 15:08

I would have thought the current OLR supports warm modoki
Posted by: Thunderstruck

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 27/06/2019 01:32

I'm a little miffed as to why the Bureau have mentioned Severe Tropical Cyclone Vayu as a possible cause of the colder water over the western Indian near the African coast...it was nowhere near there!

Quote: "The latest fall in the IOD values is simply due to average to cooler than average waters right on the African coastline, most likely generated in association with severe tropical cyclone Vayu."

That really has me beat, must be out by 2000km as it was right up the western Indian coast.

Things continue to show more of a dive to neutral and beyond, it will take a fair sudden reversal to get warm water in the western Indian now with sub-surface pretty damn nippy, and now the Central/west Indian is cooling fairly strongly also. Pretty interesting.

Meanwhile nino 3.4 is 0.01 and falling down Mariana's trench.



TS cool
Posted by: LonnyDave

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 27/06/2019 06:51

What are the climate drivers for the current heatwave in central Europe?
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 27/06/2019 09:57

SLP pattern last 30 days:



Tropical low pressure has moved away from Australia in both directions and is enhanced over west Indian Ocean, and near the dateline. In both cases this is following warmer tropical waters. However due to the differing nature of the Indian and Pacific oceans the enhanced convection in west Indian causes cloudy weather, and an increase in evaporation due to an increase of the normal westerly wind. So cooling. Changes to upwelling and E-W distribution of water have little impact as E-W and surface-depth temp gradients are weak.

In contrast convection in is causing a new westerly wind burst, which will reduce the typical easterly wind based evaporation, and reduce the transport of cooler water from below and from the east, and result in warming.

Pressures generally over Australia are significantly higher than normal. The 30 day SOI is over el nino threshold, and 90 day a bit below. Pressure near Tahita and through SE Pacific are generally high, with an enhanced high pressure reflecting a cool SPMM and acting to push cooling into the east Pacific. If it wasn't for the elevated pressure in these regions SOI would be a fair way above el nino threshold.

The North East Pacific shows low pressure anomalies, and reflects on going warm NPMM, which helps keep SSTs warm near the dateline.

Modoki pattern is reflected in that tropical convection is enhanced near dateline, but not further east, where it would be in an east based el nino. Main differences in resulting atmospherics are on the East side of the Pacific with the West side where we are acting pretty similar to an east based el nino.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 27/06/2019 12:25

Another massive volcanic eruption, this time at PNG:

Impressive image of the strong eruption that recorded today the volcano in Papua New Guinea, considered one of the most dangerous in the world.

It is estimated to reach a height of 19 kilometers, it was a subpliniana eruption (26/06/2019)

This will have an impact on ENSO zones - be interesting to see what.
Posted by: ashestoashes

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 27/06/2019 13:27

No wonder the BOM went on Inactive, look at the trend on Nino3.4.


Also looks like the Indian Ocean is taking a big dive as well hopefully continues we certainly need the break.
Posted by: snowbooby

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 27/06/2019 14:51

..storm alvin(about 110w) is tagged at 14n
... probability of a cyclone forming @ 140e(about same latitude) is currently categorised as highly probable
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/

Both appear to be forecast on a somewhat s-e track

could either of these enhance any anomalously westerly influence?
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 27/06/2019 14:53

They're all dropping rapidly...or in other words (warning may have a triggering effect) - COOLING smile



And Nino 4 totally destroys any Modoki talk given it is also cooling when it should be warming etc. Great call by the BoM re: ENSO.

Re: TS comments re: the cyclone and impacts on SST's - could it be that there is a significant fetch on the inflow? This could definitely cool SST's on the WestInd?
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 27/06/2019 14:56

Originally Posted By: snowbooby
..storm alvin(about 110w) is tagged at 14n
... probability of a cyclone forming @ 140e(about same latitude) is currently categorised as highly probable
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/

Both appear to be forecast on a somewhat s-e track

could either of these enhance any anomalously westerly influence?


How? Way too far east to enhance any WWB surely?
Posted by: Mega

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 27/06/2019 14:57

Is there any scientific evidence that such volcanoes can impact ENSO regions one way or another?
Posted by: Delta-T

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 27/06/2019 14:58

Originally Posted By: Kino

This will have an impact on ENSO zones - be interesting to see what.


I doubt we will notice the impacts. This eruption is apparently similar to the 2000 eruption so likely VEI4 at most. Pinatubo was VEI6, a hundred times bigger, it only made this impact - all but lost in the noise of atmospheric fluctuations and barely a speed bump thermally.



Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 27/06/2019 14:58

Turnng homewards for sec - how long is it since we've seen this sort of SST chart:



This is a hotline, so will change, but damn there's a significant driver right there.
Posted by: Mega

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 27/06/2019 15:04

Originally Posted By: Kino
Turnng homewards for sec - how long is it since we've seen this sort of SST chart:



This is a hotline, so will change, but damn there's a significant driver right there.


The big question is what is that driver (or drivers)? I reckon CF was on the money that the Indian Ocean has been the big player for the past few years, and that chart makes it even more depressing.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 27/06/2019 15:07

Originally Posted By: Delta-T
Originally Posted By: Kino

This will have an impact on ENSO zones - be interesting to see what.


I doubt we will notice the impacts. This eruption is apparently similar to the 2000 eruption so likely VEI4 at most. Pinatubo was VEI6, a hundred times bigger, it only made this impact - all but lost in the noise of atmospheric fluctuations and barely a speed bump thermally.





A global 0.6 drop in thermal budget a "speed bump" from one volcanic eruption? yeah ok.

And current eruption is rated as a major subplinian eruption with ash reaching 63,000ft.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 27/06/2019 15:22

Originally Posted By: Mega
Originally Posted By: Kino
Turnng homewards for sec - how long is it since we've seen this sort of SST chart:



This is a hotline, so will change, but damn there's a significant driver right there.


The big question is what is that driver (or drivers)? I reckon CF was on the money that the Indian Ocean has been the big player for the past few years, and that chart makes it even more depressing.


Totally agree, the impacts the Indian has on our climes is clearly understated. Very understated.
Posted by: Delta-T

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 27/06/2019 15:37

"This will have an impact on ENSO zones"

What kind of impact are you expecting given it is 100th the size of Pinatubo?
Posted by: Cutofflow

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 28/06/2019 19:48

Originally Posted By: Petros

....but which way is this tending?:

It's been living in the Positive since the end of 2016.

Originally Posted By: Thunderstruck
Negative to neutral IOD doing it's best to setup atm, been some very large changes in the last few weeks over the western Indian, fair deal of cooling whilst some nice warming closer to home, eroding the Nasty Ningaloo Nina to pretty weak levels now. So for now we have a bit of a lull whilst WA gets all the chocolates and then it should come back again for the S/SE of the country, but overall after a bad first 4 months, things are looking much better this year than last.

TS cool

I must be looking at a different set of charts because I can see no scenario where a -IOD will form this year (which is what i said last year).


Posted by: ashestoashes

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 28/06/2019 20:49

I feel like the Indian Ocean just overheated itself now we're seeing significant cooling over the ocean, something needed to break.

The MJO looks like it straight wants to skip into the Indian ocean through phase 2 so even more of a swing in our favour. As i said last year the models cooked a Negative IOD around June this year it's the opposite. The Indian seriously needs so much more research.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 28/06/2019 22:15

That looks like some serious cooling!

Meanwhile check out the ENSO zones too. Modoki lol.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 29/06/2019 11:11

Current SatIR shows low/nil monsoonal activity through all the Pacific Nino regions, including for the first time for ages, Nino.4. Plenty of activity Nth of Aus - looks more La Nina than neutral - or at least a tendency towards Nina.

And over in the Indian, monsoonal cloud is evident in both IOD west and east benchmark locations - to me indicating neutral IOD.

Posted by: Eigerwand

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 29/06/2019 18:07

That appears to be a rather large patch of cool water there in the central Indian Ocean. Given the SE’ly component due to coriolis force, I assume that’s the reason for the insanely large and southerly positioned high pressure zones that are currently ruining out winter?
MSLP chart for Wednesday is so depressing.
Posted by: Thunderstruck

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 30/06/2019 01:44

Originally Posted By: Cutofflow
Originally Posted By: Petros

....but which way is this tending?:

It's been living in the Positive since the end of 2016.

Originally Posted By: Thunderstruck
Negative to neutral IOD doing it's best to setup atm, been some very large changes in the last few weeks over the western Indian, fair deal of cooling whilst some nice warming closer to home, eroding the Nasty Ningaloo Nina to pretty weak levels now. So for now we have a bit of a lull whilst WA gets all the chocolates and then it should come back again for the S/SE of the country, but overall after a bad first 4 months, things are looking much better this year than last.

TS cool

I must be looking at a different set of charts because I can see no scenario where a -IOD will form this year (which is what i said last year).




Remember these graphs are not a good guide in the overall picture, always use the global SST charts plus atmospheric drivers in the first instance.

The main issue with last year was not the IOD which was a classic false positive late in the season but the sustained Ningaloo Nina (which did provide the SE measurement region with colder water and this also co-incided with extreme and rapid warming in the Western Indian measurement region) spiking the index but unfortunately that doesn't tell the story, but overall patterns were mostly neutral.

This year it's basically a reduced version, but as we speak the Ningaloo Nina is having another crack, but this time the central western Indian is cooling a bucketload. The overall Indian is warmer now in the east than the west but anomalies are pretty much near the 0 range so she's pretty neutral for now and I expect ups and downs but attempts at pushign things more negative if any of that colder water in the western sub-surface comes up which is has been doing more this year. There has been much better infeeds this growing season so far and whilst I do think there will be a pause where things stabilise atmospherically and go into setup mode, there should be more decent rains to come after that.

TS cool
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 01/07/2019 11:23

The fresh trades over E Pacific of late have really knocked the Nino3.4 SST down (and Nino.3/Nino1.2):



As noted here though, the Pacific trades are set to remain weak from now through to the next 10 days acc, to Windy/EC/GFS. Would expect a significant WWB/Kelvin wave to commence?
Posted by: RC

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 01/07/2019 12:10

Nothing predicted though.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 01/07/2019 15:50

Originally Posted By: Petros


As noted here though, the Pacific trades are set to remain weak from now through to the next 10 days acc, to Windy/EC/GFS. Would expect a significant WWB/Kelvin wave to commence?


I'd call it a significant WWB. Worth noting is that there will be almost no actual westerly winds. However there is an extended area of significantly reduced trade winds throughout the current short range forecast period which will reduce evaporative cooling and result in surface warming. There is a lack of significant low pressure systems, and I suspect there may be a reduction in cloudiness which will also assist the surface warming. I don't see much happening in the way of a warm Kelvin Wave.

Forecast also has significant easterly anomalies which may result in cooling in the east Indian Ocean.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 01/07/2019 17:21

A “significant WWB” with no “actual westerly winds” would sure be significant 😂😂😂😂
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 01/07/2019 18:39

Dunno Kino. Look at the forecast winds at the Windy site and the Kelvin wave generation area charts on StormSurf, my understanding is that a Kelvin wave is mostly generated by lack of normal easterly trades across EQ Pacific Nino.4 zone, rather than actual westerly winds in that region?

....but admittedly, I'm keen - but very new to this subject.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 01/07/2019 20:21

Originally Posted By: Petros
Dunno Kino. Look at the forecast winds at the Windy site and the Kelvin wave generation area charts on StormSurf, my understanding is that a Kelvin wave is mostly generated by lack of normal easterly trades across EQ Pacific Nino.4 zone, rather than actual westerly winds in that region?

....but admittedly, I'm keen - but very new to this subject.


Can be, but my impression is that the change in wind speed/direction is somewhat gentle, and that the subsurface is fairly neutral - especially in slope. If there was a big pile of warm subsurface in the west I'd expect a warm Kelvin wave. I definitely wouldn't say a warm kelvin wave is impossible though.
Posted by: Mega

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 01/07/2019 20:23

I think it's too early to be calling for any significant WWB. I'm not sure why every WBB has to be significant? EC + 240hrs has weak westerlies developing through Nino 4 but it's just that, weak. Last year saw not only stronger westerlies through that area but they were more frequent too and we still struggled to go Nino later in the year. One thing that really showed last year was that El-Nino is so much more than just WWBs, and the same could probably be said about trade winds and La-Nina too.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 02/07/2019 08:37

Originally Posted By: Mega
I think it's too early to be calling for any significant WWB. I'm not sure why every WBB has to be significant?


Significant to me means strong enough to have a noticeable effect. Or strong enough to be worth talking about.

Originally Posted By: Mega
One thing that really showed last year was that El-Nino is so much more than just WWBs, and the same could probably be said about trade winds and La-Nina too.


WWB activity was a bit weaker than 2006, and the resultant warming was a bit weaker than 2006. We got pretty much the same amount of warming as should be expected given the WWB activity.
Posted by: Funkyseefunkydo

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 02/07/2019 17:04

After 40 years of an increase in sea ice for Antartica it’s taken a sudden plunge. Link
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 03/07/2019 23:31

Originally Posted By: Mega
One thing that really showed last year was that El-Nino is so much more than just WWBs


Spot on Mega!

It's also about a myriad of excuses, maybes , probably's , what if's, perhaps's and because's when they don't deliver the expected and vehemently preached response . All due to the lack of ability to look beyond the computer room walls littered with historical charts held up with blue tack for quick reference and often interpreted incorrectly anyway. There are so many factors beyond the equatorial pacific. crazy

Meanwhile....

This was the last run at NOAA. It's been a long time since the equatorial pacific showed that sort of anomaly (or lack thereof) .Will these large out of season highs in the Tasman be the markers for change?




To those of you who were not just obsessed with WWB's and your own misguided views and who also had the sense to venture wider than an endless fixation with a non existent modoki / elnino event I would like to thank you for your contribution over the years. Mega, Kino, Johno, Adon and several others who's names are blank as I ready for the pillow. Perhaps I will run into you elsewhere , maybe even discussing the fact that the Indian Ocean has been the villain the past few years . smile

If anyone is interest in informative social media centred around the South East Corner then "South Brisbane Storms" on FB is a good place to look. Ken Kato is one of the key contributors and there is no agenda to be found anywhere.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/07/2019 08:02

The one agenda in the last two years in this thread has been your agenda to attack me for everything I say, without ever adding anything useful to the conversation.
Posted by: bd bucketingdown

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/07/2019 08:14

this thread up and running on WWF
http://cdweather.boards.net/#category-9
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/07/2019 08:55

Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Originally Posted By: Mega
One thing that really showed last year was that El-Nino is so much more than just WWBs


Spot on Mega!

It's also about a myriad of excuses, maybes , probably's , what if's, perhaps's and because's when they don't deliver the expected and vehemently preached response . All due to the lack of ability to look beyond the computer room walls littered with historical charts held up with blue tack for quick reference and often interpreted incorrectly anyway. There are so many factors beyond the equatorial pacific. crazy

Meanwhile....

This was the last run at NOAA. It's been a long time since the equatorial pacific showed that sort of anomaly (or lack thereof) .Will these large out of season highs in the Tasman be the markers for change?




To those of you who were not just obsessed with WWB's and your own misguided views and who also had the sense to venture wider than an endless fixation with a non existent modoki / elnino event I would like to thank you for your contribution over the years. Mega, Kino, Johno, Adon and several others who's names are blank as I ready for the pillow. Perhaps I will run into you elsewhere , maybe even discussing the fact that the Indian Ocean has been the villain the past few years . smile

If anyone is interest in informative social media centred around the South East Corner then "South Brisbane Storms" on FB is a good place to look. Ken Kato is one of the key contributors and there is no agenda to be found anywhere.



Hope we can lure you to this thread --> http://cdweather.boards.net/thread/2056/climate-driver-discussion-2019-enso?page=1&scrollTo=99737
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/07/2019 10:57

Maybe Kino. I've saved the link so I'll have a look. Watching WWB botch his forecasts for the first two years was funny but when he attacked Ken Kato it was no longer enjoyable to watch his endless gaffes. 3 years of absolute bullshit and not a single thing learned out of any of it. His only recourse was that no-one proved him wrong. Oh but they did, time and again. No-one including himself every proved him right.

When someone dismisses BoM and NOAA everytime they don't agree and embraces them when they do they look like a total fool. Mission accomplished then.

As Mega pointed out, it's not just about the very narrow minded view that WWB's are the only driver of ENSO. More to the point ENSO is not the key driver of out climate as had been laid very clear to most in the past few years.

Too blinded by his own arrogance and dismissive of everything that doesn't support his own agenda . None of you stood a chance of contributing anything worthwhile when BoM and NOAA couldn't despite the fact he used their data for his long winded agenda of tripe .

When someone proclaiming to be an ENSO specialists completely misses the declaration of a LaNina event he shouldn't be attacking the contribution of others is worthless. Perhaps if he didn't spend every breathing hour trying to discredit everyone else's contribution he wouldn't have made himself such an easy target. In the end it will be noted that he's 0 from 3.

Hopefully Ken Kato finds his way over to your link Kino. He and others slapped this fool down more than once and Ken did so with class and grace. Maybe if he finds his way over there they'll tell him to piss off like they did a while back in the Sth East Qld thread as a dozen or so members rallied around one of the forum's great contributors.

Maybe he should take up knitting. Other than stabbing someone in the eye with the knitting needle it's hard to ruin the experience for everyone else. Maybe Adon, Johno and the others that left because of this turkey can find their way to your link.

Cheers for your support Kino.

Adios.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/07/2019 11:39

Well, I for one, would very much miss you and your input. WWB won't find much love - seems the crowd there are pretty switched on with climate drivers etc.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/07/2019 14:48

See https://www.ski.com.au for my next post.
Posted by: crikey

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/07/2019 15:15

Can you post the link MIKE so we can follow hour posts.
You can get lost on those bigger forums
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/07/2019 15:19

I've posted here:

https://www.ski.com.au/xf/threads/enso-and-similar-medium-range-climate-variations.85078/
Posted by: crikey

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/07/2019 15:48

well done Mike to get the ball rolling.
I am very impressed at the welcome, the service and especially the forum interface.It took me 5 mins to register and make a comment on your thread.
132 people on line currently and great to see already WZ refugeez on line.
After posting on your thread it felt as though l was on a Good WZ alternative. Well done for taking the lead and initiative
yey!!
Things are on the move laugh
Posted by: RC

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 04/07/2019 16:02

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic....ff6&start=10920
Posted by: amphetamarine

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/07/2019 00:54

ciao.
Posted by: amphetamarine

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/07/2019 00:57

are volcanoes male or chicks
Posted by: Eigerwand

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/07/2019 07:14

Looking at the current weather and forecasts over the east of the country, really appears that winter in Australia is becoming a downright mess. Howling SE’lies in SE QLD, ridiculously warm in central NSW and the Snowies, giant highs sitting over Tasmania. Say it looks pretty apparent ‘something’ is driving the climate and the predictions made with that particular driver in mind look to be pretty much spot on.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/07/2019 07:40

So Netherlands recorded its coldest ever July temp yesterday with a significant cold front moving through..waiting fir the WxZone article about that seeing its coverage of the French heat record...think I’ll be waiting a long long time...

Oh and Mt Stromboli has erupted in Italy with a significant ash plume.
Posted by: Eigerwand

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 05/07/2019 07:49

Pfft! Sulphates don’t last nearly as long in the atmosphere as other more abundant ‘emissions’
Posted by: Eigerwand

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 06/07/2019 14:37

Originally Posted By: Kino
So Netherlands recorded its coldest ever July temp yesterday with a significant cold front moving through..waiting fir the WxZone article about that seeing its coverage of the French heat record...think I’ll be waiting a long long time...

Oh and Mt Stromboli has erupted in Italy with a significant ash plume.


Looked in to that low temp in the Netherlands you mentioned, broke the previous record by 0.1C... Little different to the 1.6C margin in France. Also, the Netherlands occupies an area of 42,500 square km, while France (excluding os territories) is 551,700... And you wonder why the 0.1C record in the Netherlands didn't get similar attention haha?

Get a load of that heat record in Alaska? Not exactly the longest records there, back to 1950 or something but beat the old record by around 3C.

Please write when that solar minimum kicks in.
Posted by: Adaminaby Angler

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 06/07/2019 14:43

Originally Posted By: Eigerwand
Looked in to that low temp in the Netherlands you mentioned, broke the previous record by 0.1C... Little different to the 1.6C margin in France. Also, the Netherlands occupies an area of 42,500 square km, while France (excluding os territories) is 551,700... And you wonder why the 0.1C record in the Netherlands didn't get similar attention haha?

Get a load of that heat record in Alaska? Not exactly the longest records there, back to 1950 or something but beat the old record by around 3C.

Please write when that solar minimum kicks in.

Much to your misinformation, the recent European heatwave merely covered the southernmost reaches of the French landmass—much unlike 1947, whereby heatwave conditions persisted for longer and struck with greater ferocity farther northwards to Paris and beyond.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 06/07/2019 18:38

AA - dont get sucked in by Eiger - a rude persistent warmist troll (who I bet is actually scared of the solar minimum's impact on his CO2 based beliefs).
Posted by: Mega

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 06/07/2019 18:43

It goes both ways in this thread tbh.
Posted by: Eigerwand

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 07/07/2019 09:53

Originally Posted By: Petros
AA - dont get sucked in by Eiger - a rude persistent warmist troll (who I bet is actually scared of the solar minimum's impact on his CO2 based beliefs).


I’m just following the numbers bro. Since this place is closing, might as well pull your pants down and reveal just how out of touch with reality all that solar minimum stuff is. I don’t ‘believe’ in CO2, it’s just that that theory seems to be making a better case for driving the climate at present so that’s what I go with. I’d love it turn out to be all wrong tbh and the Earth wasn’t facing a potential human induced catastrophe. Bu that appears to be UNLIKELY.

Some big changes in the synoptic chart over the coming week with better positions for mid winter of high/low pressure. Looks like a good winter period ahead.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 07/07/2019 18:24

Eiger, I hope you are young enough to remember this turning point, disregard solar now if you will (climate alarmist models do too). Meanwhile sit back and watch the volcanoes go off and continue to deny the resultant aerosol effects. You will be an expert in 30 years time.

And yep, very interesting weather looming from the southern polar regions.
Posted by: Funkyseefunkydo

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 07/07/2019 19:52

Anyone see all the fires inside the artic circle?
Posted by: Pedro Victor

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 08/07/2019 02:29

Posted by: Delta-T

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 08/07/2019 17:35

Fascinating insight into climate driver denialism from here.

In the scientific community there is a strong consensus that humans have significantly affected the climate and that we are facing serious challenges. But there is a lot of misinformation about climate change in circulation, which to a large part is created and distributed by organised campaigns with the aim of postponing measures that could combat climate change. And there are people who are more prone than others to trust this misinformation.

Previous research has consistently shown that it is more common among politically conservative individuals to deny climate change. In her thesis, Kirsti Jylhä has investigated this further and in more detail. Her studies included ideological and personality variables which correlate with political ideology, and tested if those variables also correlate with climate change denial.

The results show that climate change denial correlates with political orientation, authoritarian attitudes and endorsement of the status quo. It also correlates with a tough-minded personality (low empathy and high dominance), closed-mindedness (low openness to experience), predisposition to avoid experiencing negative emotions, and with the male sex. Importantly, one variable, named social dominance orientation (SDO), helped explain all these correlations, either entirely or partially.

Social dominance orientation is a measure of the acceptance and advocating of hierarchical and dominant relations between social groups. This acceptance of hierarchies also extends to accepting human dominance over nature. The correlation between SDO and climate change denial can perhaps be explained by considering the many injustices of climate change. Our current wealthy lifestyles are the primary cause of climate change, but the most serious consequences are affecting mainly poor countries and people, as well as animals and future generations of humans.

According to Kirsti Jylhä, it is possible that individuals who accept the unequal distribution of the risks and benefits of climate change, more easily can keep demanding more evidence for climate change before admitting and addressing it.
Posted by: Adaminaby Angler

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 08/07/2019 17:46

Originally Posted By: Delta-T
Fascinating insight into climate driver denialism from here.

In the scientific community there is a strong consensus that humans have significantly affected the climate and that we are facing serious challenges. But there is a lot of misinformation about climate change in circulation, which to a large part is created and distributed by organised campaigns with the aim of postponing measures that could combat climate change. And there are people who are more prone than others to trust this misinformation.

Previous research has consistently shown that it is more common among politically conservative individuals to deny climate change. In her thesis, Kirsti Jylhä has investigated this further and in more detail. Her studies included ideological and personality variables which correlate with political ideology, and tested if those variables also correlate with climate change denial.

The results show that climate change denial correlates with political orientation, authoritarian attitudes and endorsement of the status quo. It also correlates with a tough-minded personality (low empathy and high dominance), closed-mindedness (low openness to experience), predisposition to avoid experiencing negative emotions, and with the male sex. Importantly, one variable, named social dominance orientation (SDO), helped explain all these correlations, either entirely or partially.

Social dominance orientation is a measure of the acceptance and advocating of hierarchical and dominant relations between social groups. This acceptance of hierarchies also extends to accepting human dominance over nature. The correlation between SDO and climate change denial can perhaps be explained by considering the many injustices of climate change. Our current wealthy lifestyles are the primary cause of climate change, but the most serious consequences are affecting mainly poor countries and people, as well as animals and future generations of humans.

According to Kirsti Jylhä, it is possible that individuals who accept the unequal distribution of the risks and benefits of climate change, more easily can keep demanding more evidence for climate change before admitting and addressing it.

You can't be serious now, can you? confused

Your entire bloomin' statement is naught but ridden with political poppycock. whistle crazy
Posted by: Delta-T

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 08/07/2019 18:10

Your entire bloomin' statement is naught but ridden with political poppycock.

Its just research results AA and it seems to make perfect sense to me. If you have a particular criticism of the methodology or the findings then can you explain what they are?

Posted by: Delta-T

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 08/07/2019 18:55

Here is some more climate driver poppycock results. Arctic sea ice loss is the climate driver elephant in the room. The inevitable blue ocean event is going to create climate havoc in the NH, especially for rainfall, as Greenland becomes the new cold pole.



Posted by: Eigerwand

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 08/07/2019 19:25

Greenland becoming "the new cold pole" is something I hadn't really thought about but that is a very interesting thing to ponder. I imagine that will have a profound impact on air circulation in the NH.

I've often wondered who exactly will end up calling Greenland should the current trajectory continue. It may perhaps one day be a rather pleasant place to live. Given it's about 4 times the size of continental France, I'm not so sure the Danes will be able to hold on to it..
Posted by: Delta-T

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 08/07/2019 19:36

Btw Eigerwand, I bet that 0.0015% drop in solar output has you [censored] yourself.
Posted by: Adaminaby Angler

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 08/07/2019 20:11

Originally Posted By: Delta-T
Btw Eigerwand, I bet that 0.0015% drop in solar output has you [censored] yourself.

0.0015%?

Splendid, because just 0.04% of the Earth's atmosphere comprises Co2, and 3.0% of that 0.04% derives from the activity of man... whistle

...and a measly 1.3% of that 3.0% is produced by the entirety of Australian industry. smirk

Ouch, better luck next time! wink laugh poke
Posted by: Eigerwand

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 08/07/2019 20:43

Originally Posted By: Adaminaby Angler
Originally Posted By: Delta-T
Btw Eigerwand, I bet that 0.0015% drop in solar output has you [censored] yourself.

0.0015%?

Splendid, because just 0.04% of the Earth's atmosphere comprises Co2, and 3.0% of that 0.04% derives from the activity of man... whistle

...and a measly 1.3% of that 3.0% is produced by the entirety of Australian industry. smirk

Ouch, better luck next time! wink laugh poke


Current CO2 is around 400ppm, pre-industrial CO2 was around 280ppm. Therefore humanities actions since the industrial revolution have added an additional 120ppm or, 30%.
Posted by: Knot

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 08/07/2019 21:44

If co2 is staving off the nxt [censored] ice age, than more power to it. Humans can thrive and grow [censored] in the warmth. But they sure as [censored] can't do it in tundra and ice sheets. Well not enough to feed billions at anyrate. Heat might kill. But it would be small beer compared to how many ice would kill. There is no question about that. Just look at historical periods when human civilisation has thrived. Was it during warm spells or cold snaps. No fuvking contest. Every single flourishing away from the equator regions has been when it was warm enough to navel gaze outside the cave. This whole hysterical [censored] concern about some extra heat in the system is just bullshit
Posted by: Delta-T

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 08/07/2019 21:56

Originally Posted By: Eigerwand
Originally Posted By: Adaminaby Angler
Originally Posted By: Delta-T
Btw Eigerwand, I bet that 0.0015% drop in solar output has you [censored] yourself.

0.0015%?

Splendid, because just 0.04% of the Earth's atmosphere comprises Co2, and 3.0% of that 0.04% derives from the activity of man... whistle

...and a measly 1.3% of that 3.0% is produced by the entirety of Australian industry. smirk

Ouch, better luck next time! wink laugh poke


Current CO2 is around 400ppm, pre-industrial CO2 was around 280ppm. Therefore humanities actions since the industrial revolution have added an additional 120ppm or, 30%.


Ouch indeed. (Its actually now 414ppm, a 47% increase and there is zero doubt about the origin of that increase; probably the fastest increase in at least 65 million years.) Let alone the fact that Australians are amongst the highest per capita emitters. AA thinks science is poppycock and thinks its all funny but he and his denier ilk are going to be very unpleasantly surprised.
Posted by: Delta-T

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 08/07/2019 21:59

Originally Posted By: Knot
If co2 is staving off the nxt [censored] ice age, than more power to it. Humans can thrive and grow [censored] in the warmth. But they sure as [censored] can't do it in tundra and ice sheets. Well not enough to feed billions at anyrate. Heat might kill. But it would be small beer compared to how many ice would kill. There is no question about that. Just look at historical periods when human civilisation has thrived. Was it during warm spells or cold snaps. No fuvking contest. Every single flourishing away from the equator regions has been when it was warm enough to navel gaze outside the cave. This whole hysterical [censored] concern about some extra heat in the system is just bullshit


Citation?
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 08/07/2019 23:58

Originally Posted By: Eigerwand
Originally Posted By: Adaminaby Angler
Originally Posted By: Delta-T
Btw Eigerwand, I bet that 0.0015% drop in solar output has you [censored] yourself.

0.0015%?

Splendid, because just 0.04% of the Earth's atmosphere comprises Co2, and 3.0% of that 0.04% derives from the activity of man... whistle

...and a measly 1.3% of that 3.0% is produced by the entirety of Australian industry. smirk

Ouch, better luck next time! wink laugh poke


Current CO2 is around 400ppm, pre-industrial CO2 was around 280ppm. Therefore humanities actions since the industrial revolution have added an additional 120ppm or, 30%.


Not one shred of evidence can link every single molecule of that rise to one source, good try tho.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 09/07/2019 00:01

Originally Posted By: Delta-T
Your entire bloomin' statement is naught but ridden with political poppycock.

Its just research results AA and it seems to make perfect sense to me. If you have a particular criticism of the methodology or the findings then can you explain what they are?



That was the biggest load of [censored] I’ve ever read. When a “researcher” has to resort to the use of such an offensive term “denier”, you know they’re as biased as our very own Israel Folau of this forum...
Posted by: Delta-T

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 09/07/2019 05:43

Originally Posted By: Kino
Originally Posted By: Eigerwand
Originally Posted By: Adaminaby Angler
Originally Posted By: Delta-T
Btw Eigerwand, I bet that 0.0015% drop in solar output has you [censored] yourself.

0.0015%?

Splendid, because just 0.04% of the Earth's atmosphere comprises Co2, and 3.0% of that 0.04% derives from the activity of man... whistle

...and a measly 1.3% of that 3.0% is produced by the entirety of Australian industry. smirk

Ouch, better luck next time! wink laugh poke


Current CO2 is around 400ppm, pre-industrial CO2 was around 280ppm. Therefore humanities actions since the industrial revolution have added an additional 120ppm or, 30%.


Not one shred of evidence can link every single molecule of that rise to one source, good try tho.


Just because you haven't bothered to to read the science that doesn't mean no one has.
Posted by: Delta-T

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 09/07/2019 05:55

"Not one shred of evidence can link every single molecule of that rise to one source"

"If co2 is staving off the nxt [censored] ice age, than more power to it."

The six stages of denialism. Not sure if Kino is at stage 2 or 5.

1.There is no such thing as a GHG.
2.GHGs do exist, but its got nothing to do with humans.
3.Humans are responsible for the increase in GHG but there is no effect.
4.There is an effect but its beneficial.
5.There is a negative effect but its hardly noticable.
6.There is a serious effect, but its too late to do anything about it.
Posted by: Knot

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 09/07/2019 06:01

You have to chuckle when someone posts with a straight face, some gravy train research article that purportedly shows that 'deniers' are predisposed to authoritarianism. Well hello. Is it some [censored] coincidence that just about every leading climate change fanatic is a die hard socialist or collectivist or advocates that we need some kind of fundamental change to our western political and economic structure to tackle their boogeyman. So who are the [censored] authoritarians.
Posted by: Eigerwand

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 09/07/2019 06:35

Yeah, guys like Attenborough, Schwarzenegger and Musk really are the type of heroes Lenin had in mind to inspire the proletariat and lead the workers revolution...
Posted by: Adaminaby Angler

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 09/07/2019 09:54

Originally Posted By: Delta-T
Ouch indeed. (Its actually now 414ppm, a 47% increase and there is zero doubt about the origin of that increase; probably the fastest increase in at least 65 million years.) Let alone the fact that Australians are amongst the highest per capita emitters. AA thinks science is poppycock and thinks its all funny but he and his denier ilk are going to be very unpleasantly surprised.

That is a very cretinous statement of you to make, lad; "per capita" doesn't matter when just 1.3% of 3.0% of the entire 0.04% Co2 concentration of the Earth's atmosphere is what's being taken into calculation. Accordingly by absoute terms (the only proper terms), it is in fact China whom is leading the rank—by thousands-upon-thousands of leagues. Your attempt to smear the Australian nation, has now been ultimately sundered; go preach your communist codswallop propaganda elsewhere.

Methinks the lesson here is learnt: never try to reason with an alarmist. whistle crazy
Posted by: Knot

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 09/07/2019 10:32

Attenborough is an elitist population control climate change alter boy. Musk is a subsidy sucking (censored). a Schwarzenegger is a steroid addled, former walnuts stuffed in a in a stocking ( courtesy of clive james ) (censored), who likes adulation. The putz would say anything ' for the children'. All 3 are globalist groupies, who wouldn't bat an eyelid living the junket life whilst telling all us lesser (censored) how to live on spinach if we are lucky
Posted by: Adaminaby Angler

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 09/07/2019 10:39

Originally Posted By: Knot
Attenborough is an elitist population control climate change alter boy. Musk is a subsidy sucking kunt. a Schwarzenegger is a steroid addled, former walnuts stuffed in a in a stocking ( courtesy of clive james ) dick, who likes adulation. The putz would say anything ' for the children'. All 3 are globalist groupies, who wouldn't bat an eyelid living the junket life whilst telling all us lesser cunts how to live on spinach if we are lucky

Strewth, celebrity ponceys need a good .700 round through their ugly noggins.

Let us drink to that! cheers
Posted by: Eigerwand

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 09/07/2019 10:43

Originally Posted By: Knot
Attenborough is an elitist population control climate change alter boy. Musk is a subsidy sucking kunt. a Schwarzenegger is a steroid addled, former walnuts stuffed in a in a stocking ( courtesy of clive james ) dick, who likes adulation. The putz would say anything ' for the children'. All 3 are globalist groupies, who wouldn't bat an eyelid living the junket life whilst telling all us lesser cunts how to live on spinach if we are lucky


Point was they are hardly socialists you onion.
Posted by: Knot

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 09/07/2019 10:49

I didn't say 'all' climate change fanatics are socialists. But every socialist/ commie fruitcake is on the climate change band wagon. As if a [censored] socialist utopia would respect the environment, let alone co2 output. More co2 would be produced, once the commo bastards destroy innovation and need the concrete
Posted by: MOUNTAIN h2o

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 09/07/2019 11:18

Wow certainly going off with a final bang in this section smile
Anyways a final question for some interesting replies I hope.
"Are High pressure systems becoming more prevalent and larger worldwide?
Certainly been the case in Australia the last 10 years and also now bringing the same to the Northern hemisphere in recent months. What's causing them and are they all bringing heat, drought and disaster?
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 09/07/2019 11:29

Onion laugh

cheers
Posted by: rain gauge

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 09/07/2019 11:33

Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Onion laugh

cheers


I would've said window licker .. lmao
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 09/07/2019 11:48

laugh
Posted by: Delta-T

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 09/07/2019 14:52

"per capita" doesn't matter

per capita
/pəː ˈkapɪtə/
adverb & adjective
for each person; in relation to people taken individually.


Funny how for conservatives its all about the rights of individual until it comes to pollution. Then suddenly your a socialist.

"Your attempt to smear the Australian nation..."
At a loss as to how respond to this kind of misapprehension. Pity, I think.
Posted by: RC

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 09/07/2019 15:04

Anyhoo, just because the forum's impending doom is upon us is no reason to let civilisation collapse into petty squabbling.

BOM latest enso wrapup is out.

Conditions neutral.
Posted by: Funkyseefunkydo

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 09/07/2019 15:12

Well Antartica is running well above average and losing ice fast. Several Fires in the artic circle. Alaska, Greenland, Siberia all well above average. I guess we just wait and see what happens. Who cares right? Just the lefties being communists.
Posted by: Adaminaby Angler

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 09/07/2019 15:14

Originally Posted By: Delta-T
"per capita" doesn't matter

per capita
/pəː ˈkapɪtə/
adverb & adjective
for each person; in relation to people taken individually.


Funny how for conservatives its all about the rights of individual until it comes to pollution. Then suddenly your a socialist.

"Your attempt to smear the Australian nation..."
At a loss as to how respond to this kind of misapprehension. Pity, I think.

And how on Earth does that even slightly compare to absolute terms? whistle

Just another petty attempt at putting down "evil white men", methinks...this is very evident from your initial post, whereby you've stated the following poppycock: "and of the male gender"—what does the male gender have to do with Climate Change?! Bugger me sideways.
Posted by: Adaminaby Angler

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 09/07/2019 15:19

Originally Posted By: Funkyseefunkydo
Well Antartica is running well above average and losing ice fast. Several Fires in the artic circle. Alaska, Greenland, Siberia all well above average. I guess we just wait and see what happens. Who cares right? Just the lefties being communists.

Then you plainly haven't been following the weather too well, because if you had been, you would've already known that the Western US endured one of its coldest winters in recorded history this year (especially February), and the earliest snowfall in Western Australian history for us Southern Hemisphere fellows this April—as well as the first ever single-digit maxima registered in any WA township in bloody April.

You see? It goes both ways. wink smirk
Posted by: poona

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 09/07/2019 15:38

And do you AA know the difference between weather, Climate, Trends, observations and long term averages.. ?
Posted by: Knot

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 09/07/2019 15:39

Originally Posted By: Funkyseefunkydo
Well Antartica is running well above average and losing ice fast. Several Fires in the artic circle. Alaska, Greenland, Siberia all well above average. I guess we just wait and see what happens. Who cares right? Just the lefties being communists.


We're all gonna [censored] die /s. According to some stupid commo in the U.S, things are all coming to end in 2030 or something. So why [censored] worry pal.
Posted by: Adaminaby Angler

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 09/07/2019 15:51

Originally Posted By: poona
And do you AA know the difference between weather, Climate, Trends, observations and long term averages.. ?

Yes, I very much do. And what do those long-term averages show for much of inland NSW, for instance (my region)? A strong, downwards trend. Refer to Deniliquin V.I. Centre and Wagga Kooringal for the most representative station data.

But do you know what I find particularly amusing? How any potent heatwave gets dubbed "climate emergency, action now!", yet any potent cold snap gets sweeped away as "it's just weather, not climate". Hmmm....

The US has an even stronger downwards trend, particularly in summer.
Posted by: Funkyseefunkydo

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 09/07/2019 16:12

Originally Posted By: Knot
Originally Posted By: Funkyseefunkydo
Well Antartica is running well above average and losing ice fast. Several Fires in the artic circle. Alaska, Greenland, Siberia all well above average. I guess we just wait and see what happens. Who cares right? Just the lefties being communists.


We're all gonna [censored] die /s. According to some stupid commo in the U.S, things are all coming to end in 2030 or something. So why [censored] worry pal.

Yeah! that’s the spirit. [censored] the kids!
Posted by: poona

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 09/07/2019 16:36

AA I should have also included “global averages,, global observations, and an understanding of the science is also giving some insight to possible regional trends and expected directions .
Posted by: Delta-T

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 09/07/2019 16:46

AA "A strong, downwards trend"





"The US has an even stronger downwards trend, particularly in summer."



This is the faked version though right?
Posted by: Adaminaby Angler

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 09/07/2019 16:48

Adjusted data, put as politely as possible...should not be used.
Posted by: Delta-T

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 09/07/2019 16:50

Is it a bird? Is it a plane? No its AA waving his arms about so hard he took off.

Stop waving your arms and show us the raw data you're using.
Posted by: Adaminaby Angler

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 09/07/2019 16:54

Adjusted VS. Raw:



whistle whistle whistle
Posted by: Adaminaby Angler

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 09/07/2019 17:02

Also, you absolute plonker, you failed to even tell the difference between Wagga Kooringal and Wagga AMO; Wagga Kooringal begins in 1871, whereas Wagga AMO begins in 1941, thereby skipping the hottest era—not to mention that mid-century was unusually cool, so if you start from a plunge, then you will chiefly steer upwards henceforth.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/tables/cw_072151_All.shtml

Wagga Kooringal—despite being higher than AMO at 240 m AMSL—recorded 47.2° C in both February 1897 and January 1939; thereby, mercilessly sundering the relatively petty 45.2° C in February 2009 and January 2019 for Wagga AMO.
Posted by: Funkyseefunkydo

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 09/07/2019 17:03

Hahaha!
Posted by: Delta-T

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 09/07/2019 17:37

Sorry, I don't trust Jennifer Marohasey (I don't trust anyone in the pocket of Gina Rheinhart). But you continue to cling on to any scrap you can and cherry pick counter-trends to your heart content.



Posted by: Delta-T

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 09/07/2019 17:40

And your US summer "even stronger downwards trend" howler? You going to cherry-pick your way out of that too?
Posted by: Eigerwand

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 09/07/2019 19:18

Originally Posted By: MOUNTAIN h2o
Wow certainly going off with a final bang in this section smile
Anyways a final question for some interesting replies I hope.
"Are High pressure systems becoming more prevalent and larger worldwide?
Certainly been the case in Australia the last 10 years and also now bringing the same to the Northern hemisphere in recent months. What's causing them and are they all bringing heat, drought and disaster?


I think so. I definitely think there’s be an obvious trend to that effect in Australia and also I hear in parts of Africa and South America. Massive deforestation in the aforementioned probably doesn’t help either. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if that was a big contributing factor. I would think that deforested land in equatorial and subtropical regions would have a net heating effect and not only strengthen the Hadley cell heat exchange mechanism, but also act to keep air moving away from the equatorial regions aloft for longer by way of a hot bare earth, radiating far more heat, particularly overnight, than compared with forest/natural vegetation. This would push yet more air further north or south of the equator to eventually sink and form enormous regions of high pressure..
Posted by: Knot

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 09/07/2019 19:42

I'm [censored] if I know where, but I read ages ago that Hadley cell expansion is twice what has been predicted by GW modelling. So something other than cfuckingO2 drives the expansion
Posted by: Adaminaby Angler

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 09/07/2019 20:11

You don't trust Marohasy? Splendid, because I don't trust Berkeley Earth, sonny boy. wink

Funny how you bark about Jennifer Marohasy being "secured via pocket", so to speak, yet have no qualms whatsoever about the IPCC funding tactics—just for starters! Now, don't even get me started on that Michael E. Mann plonker...

Anyways, back to the chief topic. Instead of chucking graphs about willy-nilly akin to a pack of feisty dogs, let us instead look at the raw BOM data itself:

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/tables/cw_074128_All.shtml

Now, there is a drop-down button labelled "period"—click on it, and select any year you'd like to compare with one another. I shall request for you to compare 1981-2010 with those of the Late 19th Century (pre-Stevenson Era) and of the Early 20th Century (post-Stevenson Era); I look forward to your conclusion(s), because I have already established mine.

As for the US data of which I had barked about earlier, here it is (NOAA Raw):

Posted by: Delta-T

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 09/07/2019 20:56

Yes, I suspected you'd be relying Heller's fake graph - the only one on the internet showing a fall. You've been suckered, willingly it seems.
This is what he started with before butchering and cherry picking. Read how the fraud did it here.


Here's an idea - in future get your information from reputable sources instead from paid shills like Marohasey and Heller.
Posted by: weatherhobbiest

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 09/07/2019 21:14

Originally Posted By: Knot
I didn't say 'all' climate change fanatics are socialists. But every socialist/ commie fruitcake is on the climate change band wagon. As if a [censored] socialist utopia would respect the environment, let alone co2 output. More co2 would be produced, once the commo bastards destroy innovation and need the concrete


How is that any more valid than the following argument:

"I'm not saying that every food and water fanatic, who believes that eating food and drinking water is essential for life, is a Nazi. But every Nazi is on the "eating food and drinking water is essential for life" bandwagon?
Posted by: weatherhobbiest

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 09/07/2019 21:28

Originally Posted By: Kino
A “significant WWB” with no “actual westerly winds” would sure be significant 😂😂😂😂


Actually, it's fairly typical. While it is certainly possible to have a significant WWB (westerly wind anomaly) without an absolute (positive) westerly component, obviously a wind with an absolute westerly component would have a greater westerly anomaly (difference from the climatological mean) than a wind which had a westerly anomaly but an absolute easterly component (because the magnitude of the absolute easterly component was less than the magnitude of the easterly component of the climatological mean wind).
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 09/07/2019 21:44

No it's not. It's a relaxing of the trades. A reversal of them is the only true WWB. Even Ventrice makes this distinction.
Posted by: amphetamarine

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 09/07/2019 22:44

Monsoonal activity.
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 09/07/2019 22:52

Originally Posted By: Funkyseefunkydo
Well Antartica is running well above average and losing ice fast. Several Fires in the artic circle. Alaska, Greenland, Siberia all well above average. I guess we just wait and see what happens. Who cares right? Just the lefties being communists.


and Aus has its coldest June in decades, Netherlands recorded its coldest min for July ever as did Southern France, in the middle of summer, mind you. Oh wait, yes I know, global warming also causes cooling yadda yadda yadda. Yawn.
Posted by: weatherhobbiest

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 09/07/2019 23:14

Originally Posted By: ColdFront
No it's not. It's a relaxing of the trades. A reversal of them is the only true WWB. Even Ventrice makes this distinction.


I stand corrected. According to the wikipedia article here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Westerly_wind_burst, a westerly wind burst is defined as a period of winds with an absolute westerly component, with a duration and strength above a certain minimum defining value (although that criterion differs between different meteorological agencies, just like the criterion for an el nino differs from one meteorological agency to the next. I'm not sure who gave me the idea that "WWB" is synonymous with "westerly wind anomaly" (which would include a relaxing of the trades). I had always thought that using the term "WWB" to mean "westerly wind anomaly" was somewhat misleading, so I'm pleased to find out that "WWB" is only used to refer to a wind with an absolute westerly component.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 10/07/2019 00:36

Originally Posted By: Kino
Originally Posted By: Funkyseefunkydo
Well Antartica is running well above average and losing ice fast. Several Fires in the artic circle. Alaska, Greenland, Siberia all well above average. I guess we just wait and see what happens. Who cares right? Just the lefties being communists.


and Aus has its coldest June in decades, Netherlands recorded its coldest min for July ever as did Southern France, in the middle of summer, mind you. Oh wait, yes I know, global warming also causes cooling yadda yadda yadda. Yawn.


Just wondering where you got that information. BOM seems to disagree:





Posted by: Eigerwand

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 10/07/2019 06:42

Beat me to it Nature’s Fury, Kino does that all the time! Wasn’t this past June the coldest since 2011 and still actually just above average!? Last year Kino made a similar claim that the Snowies were having “the best season since the ‘80’s or possibly longer” with regards to the amount of snow, I posted a link which showed that to be clearly not the case, heard nothing. Similarly with the records he keeps mentioning in Europe, so far as I am aware the margin that those cold temps beat previous records was nothing compared to the margin the recent heat records exceeded records, not to mention the vastly greater area effected during the recent Euro heatwave compared to the cold event he keeps contrasting it with.

I hate it I really do. It’s like when you open a [censored] paper like the Telegraph and read dickheads like Bolt or Devine use things they’ve heard but aren’t actually verified or stamens that are true on the surface but don’t tell the full story, like saying Europe recently set heat and cold records so global warming is bullshit, yet the details, if anyone were bothered enough to look into them, tell a completely different story.
Posted by: Knot

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 10/07/2019 07:03

AGW cadres wouldn't fuccck around with graph data would they lol
Posted by: Adaminaby Angler

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 10/07/2019 07:10

That US graph of yours is sorrowfully wrong, Delta-T, it's not even funny. How on Earth is it hotter now than the Early 20th Century, when 1934-1936—accordingly by the raw NOAA data (i.e. before they started homogenising year-after-year, with differing results, as exposed by Tony Heller), were by leagues the hottest years in the US? 2019 doesn't even compare to 1936 or 1934 via the raw dataset(s), so you've just cooked-up another downright lie in an attempt to launch a smear-campaign against Tony Heller; but alas, you've ultimately failed.

The US datasets of which you are providing, Delta-T, are those which have been adjusted relentlessly over the last decade or so—with little to no consistency, might I add; with every passing year, the adjustments were made steeper, and as of now, the brutally hot years of 1934 and especially 1936 have been damn-near erased.
Posted by: Knot

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 10/07/2019 07:20

Didn't you know AA that there is a special section at AGW headquarters tasked with eradicating the past. Climate only began in the mid 80's you know. lol
Posted by: Flowin

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 10/07/2019 07:30

compare snow 1981 to 2018 on this site:
https://www.snowyhydro.com.au/our-energy/water/inflows/snow-depths-calculator/
Posted by: Knot

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 10/07/2019 07:49

The Snowies were gonna see less snow eventually. Like in millions of years as the continent heads north. Unless some some smart bastard works out a way of anchoring us in place
Posted by: Funkyseefunkydo

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 10/07/2019 08:10

Is it tony heller or Steve Goddard? why he change his name?
Posted by: Adaminaby Angler

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 10/07/2019 08:40

Originally Posted By: Funkyseefunkydo
Is it tony heller or Steve Goddard? why he change his name?

Tony Heller is his real name, and he used "Steven Goddard" for to avoid being found-out by his initial employership (of whom were radically pro-AGW); to avoid losing his job, but he was eventually fired when his employers found out that he's skeptical of the AGW theory.
Posted by: Adaminaby Angler

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 10/07/2019 08:45

Originally Posted By: Flowin

Why 1981? confused
Posted by: Delta-T

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 10/07/2019 08:48

"a smear-campaign against Tony Heller"

Didn't you read the link you dingbat, the graph you posted is a deliberate deception. He smeared himself, but you're wanting to defend him? SMFH.

This is like playing whack-a-mole.
Posted by: Knot

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 10/07/2019 08:58

@Delta T
defend the hockey stick. I double dare ya.
Posted by: Delta-T

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 10/07/2019 09:45

The hockey stick graph has been verified repeatedly. By boreholes, stalagmites, glaciers, etc, etc. Another mole gets whacked. Here is another from https://scripps.ucsd.edu/:


What could possibly go wrong?
Posted by: Delta-T

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 10/07/2019 09:47

The herd of elephants in the climate driver room.
Posted by: Knot

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 10/07/2019 09:49

Originally Posted By: Delta-T
The hockey stick graph has been verified repeatedly. By boreholes, stalagmites, glaciers, etc, etc. Another mole gets whacked. Here is another from https://scripps.ucsd.edu/:


What could possibly go wrong?


Fucccking rubbish.
Posted by: Delta-T

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 10/07/2019 09:59

Why is that?
Posted by: Eigerwand

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 10/07/2019 10:36

Originally Posted By: Knot
The Snowies were gonna see less snow eventually. Like in millions of years as the continent heads north. Unless some some smart bastard works out a way of anchoring us in place


6cm’s year of northward drift shouldn’t have an appreciable effect in a lifetime let alone several thousands of years!

I really can’t fathom some of the ludicrously stupid reasoning on here.

AA, forget your 1930’s heat wave for one moment and look at every marker in the natural world. Clearly even if there were a brief moment of heat early last century it’s not nearly as significant as the heat over the past decades. No one can homogenise the world’s cryosphere, reefs etc, so shut up with your rubbish like Australian winters in the SW NSW are becoming colder when guys like Blair have clearly rebuffed your hypothesis.


We could sit here an argue back and forth about graphs etc but there’s more than enough observational evidence to suggest which way scales have tipped. So ridiculous.
Posted by: Adaminaby Angler

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 10/07/2019 11:25

Originally Posted By: Eigerwand
6cm’s year of northward drift shouldn’t have an appreciable effect in a lifetime let alone several thousands of years!

I really can’t fathom some of the ludicrously stupid reasoning on here.

AA, forget your 1930’s heat wave for one moment and look at every marker in the natural world. Clearly even if there were a brief moment of heat early last century it’s not nearly as significant as the heat over the past decades. No one can homogenise the world’s cryosphere, reefs etc, so shut up with your rubbish like Australian winters in the SW NSW are becoming colder when guys like Blair have clearly rebuffed your hypothesis.


We could sit here an argue back and forth about graphs etc but there’s more than enough observational evidence to suggest which way scales have tipped. So ridiculous.

Then why do the long-term SW NSW observational data, in fact, show a cooling trend? Riddle me this, you alarmist plonker. And it wasn't just the 1930's; 1870's, 1880's, 1890's, and the 1900's—namely the 51.7° C at post-Stevenson station Bourke Post Office in January 1909. Why doesn't it reach >50° C anymore in Australia? Think with your head.

Also, Professor Peter Ridd has repeatedly scolded the "coral reef acidification" poppycock, but alas, climate heresy got the best of him.
Posted by: Adaminaby Angler

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 10/07/2019 11:35

Originally Posted By: Delta-T
"a smear-campaign against Tony Heller"

Didn't you read the link you dingbat, the graph you posted is a deliberate deception. He smeared himself, but you're wanting to defend him? SMFH.

This is like playing whack-a-mole.

Listen here, you little rascal: Tony Heller had merely referrenced the unaltered, raw data whereby NOAA had constructed; the so-called deception was accomplished by NOAA themsleves in the last decade or so—then, they suddenly flipped the story.
Posted by: Adaminaby Angler

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 10/07/2019 11:42

That "approved hockeystick" shows only the Co2 increase, and not temperature...could you possibly get any more cretinous? whistle
Posted by: CeeBee

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 10/07/2019 13:20

Cool...this is like the good old days before the climate change forum got shutdown! laugh

Did someone mention hockey sticks??







Posted by: ashestoashes

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 10/07/2019 13:28

These are the end times.
But you know what I'll give AA and A+ for vocabulary and creativity in language.
Posted by: RandomGuy

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 10/07/2019 15:49

This is probably the most exciting I've ever seen this forum in a long time.
Since you guys are each posting graphs that back up your current climate 'world view', I have yet to see a graph that takes into consideration a lengthy period of time, therefore encompassing the bigger picture.

So here is a graph I would like to share which comes from the Greenland ice core data and goes back THOUSANDS of years into the past and back to the last ice age.



This clearly shows that temps on this planet have fluctuated wildly, along with C02, without any assistance from little old us. It also shows that changes in C02 lag behind changes in temp. Seems a bit curious to me that we should only look at the recent past to dissern wether or not the climate is abnormally changing, by how much, and for what reason.....

Here's a second graph for temp change...



And another graph for historic levels of c02...Yes it does show that C02 levels today are at record high, but it also shows that c02 levels in the past have periodically risen and fallen, again without little old us to assist.


Anyway.....Just wanted to share my little collection of "cherry picked" data. Comment away.
Posted by: Delta-T

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 10/07/2019 16:50

Hi Random Guy, I'd make three points.
1. Yes, the ice core data clearly shows CO2 increase lagging temperature, in other words temperature looks like a forcing for CO2 concentration. That makes sense because a warming ocean is going to hold less CO2 (and there are probably a few other factors).
However that does not mean that CO2 is not a forcng for temperature- it is. We know it is as evidenced from it's GHE. They drive each other. CO2 forcing temperature is a weaker effect, but still an effect.
2. The periodic rise and fall of CO2 concentration on the ice core graph happen over hundreds of thousands of years. Even the steepest rises, increasing up to the interglacials, is only 80 or 100ppm over several thousand years. The human caused change is (so far) about 130ppm or 47% in not much more than a single century and accellerating! Two orders of magnitude faster. That rate of increase has not been seen on Earth for at least 65 million years.
3.CO2 levels have been higher in the past as have temperatures and life adapted without many problems. The big difference is the rate of change - a hundred times faster.
Posted by: amphetamarine

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 10/07/2019 16:58

The climate will change. Discussions will prevent that change.
Posted by: Jac0b

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 10/07/2019 18:55

It's funny how some people seem to have a problem with our 0.04% CO2 atmosphere (0.03% before industry etc) ... CO2 is a trace gas REQUIRED for life; the equation for photosynthesis has CO2 as a reactant. i.e. without CO2, plants die, and hence the environment dies.

Funny how the same people who seem to hate CO2 happen to be those same people who are worried about the environment ....
Posted by: Kino

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 10/07/2019 20:52

Originally Posted By: Eigerwand
Beat me to it Nature’s Fury, Kino does that all the time! Wasn’t this past June the coldest since 2011 and still actually just above average!? Last year Kino made a similar claim that the Snowies were having “the best season since the ‘80’s or possibly longer” with regards to the amount of snow, I posted a link which showed that to be clearly not the case, heard nothing. Similarly with the records he keeps mentioning in Europe, so far as I am aware the margin that those cold temps beat previous records was nothing compared to the margin the recent heat records exceeded records, not to mention the vastly greater area effected during the recent Euro heatwave compared to the cold event he keeps contrasting it with.

I hate it I really do. It’s like when you open a [censored] paper like the Telegraph and read dickheads like Bolt or Devine use things they’ve heard but aren’t actually verified or stamens that are true on the surface but don’t tell the full story, like saying Europe recently set heat and cold records so global warming is bullshit, yet the details, if anyone were bothered enough to look into them, tell a completely different story.


Ohhhh here is Israel Folau of the forum 😂😂😂😂😂 it was from your warmista mates at WxZone but hey you’re too busy pulling your hockey stick
Posted by: Knot

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 10/07/2019 21:27

@Jacob. Co2 fanaticism has very little to do with the environment. It is a means to an end. The end is to replace freedom and capitalism with serfdom and a weird mix of techno-feudalism and socialism.
Posted by: Knot

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 10/07/2019 21:44

Hockey 'Schtick' . Mann's climate gimmmick
Posted by: Delta-T

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 10/07/2019 22:11

And yet the ice melts.
Posted by: Knot

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 10/07/2019 22:14

Ice melts. So do brains lol
Posted by: RandomGuy

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 10/07/2019 23:38

No, not that kind of ice - amphetamarine.
Posted by: amphetamarine

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 11/07/2019 00:46

The [censored]? has my brain got to with driving the climate.
Posted by: Eigerwand

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 11/07/2019 07:11

Originally Posted By: Jac0b
It's funny how some people seem to have a problem with our 0.04% CO2 atmosphere (0.03% before industry etc) ... CO2 is a trace gas REQUIRED for life; the equation for photosynthesis has CO2 as a reactant. i.e. without CO2, plants die, and hence the environment dies.

Funny how the same people who seem to hate CO2 happen to be those same people who are worried about the environment ....


Without food humans die. Therefore people should eat as much as possible.. So god damn stupid, the reasoning on here.

Much research has been done to show that there is a point at which increasing CO2 is of little use to plant growth. It would also disrupt, rather quickly I might add, the balance between vegetation that can adapt or does better with more CO2 compared to that which does not. This may not be particularly beneficial to all life concerned.

Of course then there's excess CO2 dissolving in the oceans to form carbonic acid, lowering the PH of the world's ocean causing yet more problems.

I really do feel like compulsory voting is a bad idea when people display such feeble reasoning..
Posted by: Knot

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 11/07/2019 09:54

More co2 more greening of the planet. What's not to like. Maybe the watermelon [censored] should change the party name to The Brownies or something. Be fitting. Brown suits these wandervogel throwbacks
Posted by: RC

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 11/07/2019 10:34

Have the moderators given up knowing weatherzone forums are closing, they simply could not be bothered moderating forums any more?
Posted by: CeeBee

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 11/07/2019 10:39

Yeah that's the spirit! Lets all turn the Earth into a Hothouse so the plants can thrive!!

https://theconversation.com/hothouse-ear...ked-like-101413
Posted by: Eigerwand

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 11/07/2019 12:09

Originally Posted By: Knot
More co2 more greening of the planet. What's not to like. Maybe the watermelon [censored] should change the party name to The Brownies or something. Be fitting. Brown suits these wandervogel throwbacks


And given humanities vast land use requirements, where by chance do you see these great forests once again emerging?

The green/fascism rubbish you keep implying is a complete waste of time.
Posted by: Adaminaby Angler

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 11/07/2019 12:19

It is a widely-renowned fact that crop yields have increased drastically as a result of Co2 increase; thereby, flourishing the Earth's verdure and flora alike, as proven evident by NASA.

And yes, Knot—Brownies is certainly a more fitting term for the Watermelons than "Greenies" ever was. wink laugh

Posted by: Delta-T

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 11/07/2019 12:26

Rooftops?
Posted by: Delta-T

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 11/07/2019 12:36

"a widely-renowned fact that crop yields have increased drastically as a result of Co2 increase"

AA takes to the air again, man are you full of it. Cite one piece of evidence that "crop yields have increased drastically as a result of Co2 increase".
Posted by: CeeBee

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 11/07/2019 12:37

Originally Posted By: Adaminaby Angler
It is a widely-renowned fact that crop yields have increased drastically as a result of Co2 increase; thereby, flourishing the Earth's verdure and flora alike, as proven evident by NASA.

And yes, Knot—Brownies is certainly a more fitting term for the Watermelons than "Greenies" ever was. wink laugh



Of course the fact that Severe Weather due to Climate Change will disrupt crop yields is ignored by the deniers.

Not to mention the prolonged droughts and torrential rains to come...

Climate change is affecting crop yields and reducing global food supplies
Posted by: Knot

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 11/07/2019 13:29

don't forget to add that children won't know what snow is. And glaciers will disappear by year dot dot dot. The climate alarmism bullshit is like the fear of the gods cults. Scare the masses into belief and keep them there thru fear.

@Eigarwand. I'm not implying a green/ fascist nexus. I am stating it as fact. If you bothered to research the German wandervogel back to nature youth movement , from which the German greens owes their parentage. They were akin to the hippie movement. A rejection of materialism and a romantacised view of living close to nature ( sound [censored] familiar. Go to Nimbin). The Nazis ultimately banned the WV movement. They had by then absorbed a lot idealogy and idealism from various Wandeevogel streams and had no further use for it.
Greens make no secret of the links with WV ideology
https://deepgreenresistance.net/en/resistance/culture/wandervogel-lebensreform-nazi-germany/

Not all Wandervogel were antisemitic kunts. There were Jewish groups, pinko groups etc. Kind of like an idealistic fountain from which a mass movement looking for control could draw inspiration
Posted by: Eigerwand

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 11/07/2019 13:40

Originally Posted By: Adaminaby Angler
It is a widely-renowned fact that crop yields have increased drastically as a result of Co2 increase; thereby, flourishing the Earth's verdure and flora alike, as proven evident by NASA.

And yes, Knot—Brownies is certainly a more fitting term for the Watermelons than "Greenies" ever was. wink laugh



Really? Show some evidence to that effect. Think you’ll find it’s due to the enormous use of fertiliser, nothing to do with more CO2.
Posted by: Adaminaby Angler

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 11/07/2019 13:51

https://www.nasa.gov/feature/ames/human-...asa-study-shows

whistle whistle whistle
Posted by: Adaminaby Angler

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 11/07/2019 13:59

Originally Posted By: CeeBee
Of course the fact that Severe Weather due to Climate Change will disrupt crop yields is ignored by the deniers.

Not to mention the prolonged droughts and torrential rains to come...

Climate change is affecting crop yields and reducing global food supplies

Correct on your first point—the early, recent effects of the Grand Solar Minimum have certainly taken a toll on the crop yields of yesteryear.

Now, as for your red statement...that, folks, is contradiction at its finest! laugh crazy poke
Posted by: Delta-T

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 11/07/2019 14:32

Originally Posted By: Adaminaby Angler


Sigh, yes I read that too. They detected a "5% increase leaf increase" but don't say how much of that is forest leaf, most probably.
Therefore your "widely-renowned fact that crop yields have increased drastically as a result of Co2" evaporates the moment it is chalenged. Surrise, surprise. Stop making things up, it only makes you look like an arm-waving...um plonker. A whistling, arm-waving plonker.
Posted by: CeeBee

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 11/07/2019 14:52

Originally Posted By: Adaminaby Angler
Originally Posted By: CeeBee
Of course the fact that Severe Weather due to Climate Change will disrupt crop yields is ignored by the deniers.

Not to mention the prolonged droughts and torrential rains to come...

Climate change is affecting crop yields and reducing global food supplies

Correct on your first point—the early, recent effects of the Grand Solar Minimum have certainly taken a toll on the crop yields of yesteryear.

Now, as for your red statement...that, folks, is contradiction at its finest! laugh crazy poke




More Floods and More Droughts: Climate Change Delivers Both
Posted by: Knot

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 11/07/2019 15:20

If it's [censored] cold it's climate change. If it's hot. It's climate change. If it snows. It's clmate change. If it doesn't snow it's climate change. If it rains it's climate change. If it doesn't rain its climate change.

It's a [censored] cult.
Posted by: CeeBee

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 11/07/2019 15:41

Originally Posted By: Adaminaby Angler

Correct on your first point—the early, recent effects of the Grand Solar Minimum have certainly taken a toll on the crop yields of yesteryear.


Now as for your red statement...that folks is denial and delusion at it's finest! grin

Last month was the hottest June in recorded history
Posted by: Jac0b

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 11/07/2019 15:43

Originally Posted By: Eigerwand


Without food humans die. Therefore people should eat as much as possible.. So god damn stupid, the reasoning on here.

Much research has been done to show that there is a point at which increasing CO2 is of little use to plant growth. It would also disrupt, rather quickly I might add, the balance between vegetation that can adapt or does better with more CO2 compared to that which does not. This may not be particularly beneficial to all life concerned.

Of course then there's excess CO2 dissolving in the oceans to form carbonic acid, lowering the PH of the world's ocean causing yet more problems.

I really do feel like compulsory voting is a bad idea when people display such feeble reasoning..



Here are some facts:

Increasing Co2 has a positive impact on plant and crop growth ... that point at which increasing it further and having no impact is orders of magnitude higher than the current 400ppm. Hence why greenhouses have a much higher Co2 concentration than the atmosphere, so yeah ....

This is a pretty good reference in terms of corn yields for the USA http://www.drroyspencer.com/2018/01/u-s-corn-yield-a-new-record-again/

Global greening as mentioned above is also a real thing.

Also in terms of ocean acidification, marine life actually does quite well near underwater volcanoes, a natural source, where dissolved CO2 is very high compared to other areas.

To add, all these predictions for the future crop yields/drought/cyclones are bogus crap. In Australia, the worst droughts have been the Federation drought, early 1980's drought and the 1930's - 1940's drought and the Millenium drought. In the USA, by far the worst was the dust bowl in the 1930's, that combined with record high summer temps that still stand today. Cyclones also aren't on an upward trend.

[i][/i]
Posted by: Eigerwand

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 11/07/2019 15:51

Originally Posted By: Adaminaby Angler


“stems mainly from ambitious tree planting programs and intensive agriculture in both countries” (China and India). Nothing about proving increasing CO2 as being a driver in the greening process, just that it was initially suspected as being a contributor but then fell by the wayside in comparison to intentional tree planting and agriculture 😂

Are your feet sore AA??? Hard to imagine someone can go about shooting themselves in the foot so often. Especially a nut who I assume would know how to handle a gun given that he writes gun toting garbage like “poncy celebrities need a .700 through the noggin”.

Complete moron.
Posted by: Jac0b

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 11/07/2019 16:12

Originally Posted By: Eigerwand

“stems mainly from ambitious tree planting programs and intensive agriculture in both countries” (China and India). Nothing about proving increasing CO2 as being a driver in the greening process, just that it was initially suspected as being a contributor but then fell by the wayside in comparison to intentional tree planting and agriculture 😂

Are your feet sore AA??? Hard to imagine someone can go about shooting themselves in the foot so often. Especially a nut who I assume would know how to handle a gun given that he writes gun toting garbage like “poncy celebrities need a .700 through the noggin”.

Complete moron.


Exactly the same can be said about global temperatures being influenced from solar activity, ocean currents, Pacific decadal oscillation, etc. nothing definitively proving CO2 as being a big of a driver in global temperatures. Now that CO2 theory is falling by the wayside of new research into the complex climate system that we still barely understand, and how many factors, large ones as I've mentioned a few, actually affect the climate and global temperatures instead of an increase in a trace gas.
Posted by: Delta-T

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 11/07/2019 16:27

"Trace", as in how can anything so dilute have any possible significant effect?

Your "trace" gas was sustaining the world's forests a moment ago.
Posted by: amphetamarine

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 11/07/2019 16:33

We have established that the climate changes about 5 billion years ago. We all die in the end and give rise to a new era.
Posted by: Jac0b

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 11/07/2019 16:37

Good point but here's the thing:

In terms of sustaining the world's forrests, CO2 is required for plant life, due to photosynthesis. SO yes, without it they die. CO2 is only one of 3 reactants in the chemical equation, the other being water and sunlight. Then soil is required for growth.

In terms of global temperatures, the effect of CO2 is only a tiny player among much many larger players. It is like a reactant with a million others if you were to compare to it to the photosynthesis equation.
Posted by: Delta-T

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 11/07/2019 16:45

"here's the thing" Jac0b - despite your 'splainin', you can't have it both ways.
Posted by: Eigerwand

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 11/07/2019 17:01

Haha! Man this is like shooting fish in a barrel. I’m still scratching my head as to how Jac0b thinks that because some marine life adapted over millions of years to thrive next to volcanic vents, that means ocean acidification for the thousands of species that didn’t evolve to cope with such conditions isn’t worth being concerned about.

Some real well thought out arguments gettin’ dropped on here 😂🤯
Posted by: Leelee

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) - 11/07/2019 17:15

Plot twist - the forums aren't being shut down - WZ just wanted to create a Lord of the Flies situation.

Entertaining though