I am backing another weak La nina

Posted by: *Runoff*

I am backing another weak La nina - 09/07/2006 00:25

After seeing a warming across most of the equatorial pacific over the last few months the trend seems to be reversing. Stormsurf's comparisons to this time last year show some strong similarities albeit slightly warmer. If these large high pressure systems keep going through until spring , my guess is we will have another reasonably wet summer.
Posted by: Inclement Weather

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 14/07/2006 21:24

I hope you're right runoff . . .
Posted by: Peng

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 14/07/2006 21:55

Maybe we could base a decision on the outcome of this current rain event in Eastern Australia... wink
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 17/07/2006 07:54

A BoM employee made the comment this week that it is most unusual to see high pressure systems centred so far south at this time of year. The current high is forecast to peak at 1037hpa in the Tasman sea and direct further showers on to the east coast. He also said that although the remaining winter rainfall outlook is below average , the chances of showers continuing along the tropical east coast are above average. Over the past fortnight these SE trade winds have further reduced the warming trend in the equatorial pacific.
Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 17/07/2006 09:28

It would also be helpful if the SOI were to return to positive values - however it is quite commonly negative at this time of year. The key time for a rise in the SOI is between usually between August and November to be helpful towards a La Nina situation and enchancement of summer/tropical wet season rainfall. As you mention, the current situation is encouraging - also perhaps a La Nina is overdue, since there have been mostly either neutral or El Nino conditions in the last decade or so - so you may well be right there - let's hope so! smile
Posted by: adon

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 17/07/2006 22:50

Hopefully the next La Nina is a strong one. Maybe that will break this pattern of late breaks and drier springs. I remember a climate discussion a while ago that said that neutral conditions could be no better than El Nino for some parts of the country. Reckon this area must be one of the parts! La Nina has to be overdue. We have not seen the creeks in the Mallee run since I finished school (10 years ago). The current phase we are in has to change soon surely.
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 18/07/2006 15:50

Yeah runoff, your forecast and guesses seem about right to me. I ran some AVN plots last night for the broad central pacific area and what it seems to be saying is that this strong high is one of many which will dominate the south pacific starting from next week. should this happen we will see rapid strengthening of the trade winds from east to west. In the northern hemisphere the north pacific is also under the influence of a strong high which is helping with the trade winds. Another thing of interest is the strength of the jet stream over central australia atm, brisbane sounding registered 150 knots at 300hpa, very strong and unusual. These jets will help pull the easterly winds further and help warm our oceans too. In the last 3-5 days, SSTs around the country have started to warm up considerably which may be the sign of things to come. We made similar forecasts last year and the wet season didnt deliver much, lets hope this one does.
Posted by: Keith

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 18/07/2006 16:24

As much as I hate to be a wet blanket, the latest tropical climate update here says that we are showing signs of a weak El Nino, just as it was showing a weak La Nina some time back. The outlook is for essentially neutral conditions, although there's a sign that the warming in the eastern Pacific has peaked. So Boris I hope you are right!
:cheers:
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 18/07/2006 16:37

I am basing my belief on the warming having peaked. I hope it has. Still early days yet but these large highs might just help shove things back the other way. Also the cooling on the east pacific thermocline appears to have intensified over the past fortnight. As you mentioned Keith there is a weak warm pool off Sth America , however there was last year also. Though it wasn't as strong.
Posted by: sugar mill tour guide

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 18/07/2006 17:57

okay well cainfarmers here r sniffing a early wetseason. I reckon the same thing as the water temp off our coast in majorily warmer than usal. Im fellin rather worried cause that means my job on the line
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 23/07/2006 11:20

Well as i said in my post a few days ago about the strong highs which will establish themselves over the south pacific to help get the trade winds going. The predicted strong high has emerged and is sitting over that exact forecasted spot as 1041hpa. It has weakened to 1040hpa this morning but still remains a strong system.

Just to give u an idea of what im talking about, heres the plot i ran:

http://nomad3.ncep.noaa.gov/tmp/ATEST23377.png
Posted by: adon

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 23/07/2006 11:33

How long is that forecasted to be there Bokkey? Certainly is a big bugger!
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 23/07/2006 12:07

Well that set up remains unchanged in the forseeable future, the big high in the northern hemisphere and a few coupled in the southern hemisphere, so hopefully it stays that way for a longer time smile
Posted by: adon

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 25/07/2006 23:57

That high in the Pacific doesn't seem to be making a huge diff to the SOI. Looks like it is still going in the same pattern it has for ages now.
Posted by: Tempest

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 26/07/2006 08:35

It seems as though a weak el-nino is building rather than la nina.

SST\'s
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 26/07/2006 12:28

The east pacific has warmed recently to weak el nino status, but the sub-surface temp anomaly maps indicate a cooling in that sector of the ocean atm and also indicate a cooler upwelling starting to occur from a mass 50-150metres below this. Charts still forecast highs to linger across south pacific and a strong high in the north. hopefully they are strong enough to force these winds westward which should already be flowing that way.
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 26/07/2006 16:23

Yeah I saw that too Bokkey. The footprint for a La nina is looking less convincing though. Although the trop note did mention that they felt the warming had peaked in June. Fingers crossed.
Posted by: adon

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 26/07/2006 22:34

Prolly not the right place to ask this but how does the Pacific cool at depth? Is it Because of upwelling due to warmer water being moved by wind or is it just pooling under warmer water with a cold current?
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 27/07/2006 14:29

You are in the right place Adon. It is a combination of a number of things including all that you mentioned above. The water movement on the thermocline at around 150 mtrs deep plays the biggest role. However strong surface winds are a significant factor also. For us to have a real chance at a decent wet we need to see the surface winds of Sth America start blowing back towards Australia. This will push the warm surface water back towards us and enable the cold water (currently suppressed beneath the warm pool) to surface. Strong westerly wind burst up around the solomons have an opposite effect. They drive warm water down to the thermocline which then moves east and surfaces on the equator off the coast of sth America .As this warm pool spreads back toward the centre of the pacific it increase our chances of an El Nino forming. It is actually the strength of the event that determines how much rain we will get or miss out on . A weak el nino has little bearing on Australia's rainfall. The warm water needs to spread back to near the dateline for there to be a major effect on our weather. There are many more factors that affect it , but anyway I hope this sheds some light.
Posted by: Proteus

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 27/07/2006 16:11

Necrotising arachnidism usually associated with an over active Cheliceraeis is one of the best indicators of SST anomilies I've seen. However if the Epigynum twitches periodically except when
an Epigastric furrow is evident then your really back to square one.
Posted by: Mick10

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 27/07/2006 16:38

Proteus, what the heck are u going on about?
Posted by: Proteus

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 27/07/2006 17:03

Sorry Mick, it was a long lunch.
Posted by: Mick10

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 27/07/2006 17:25

sounds like u drunk more than u ate!! :p
Posted by: Keith

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 27/07/2006 19:26

I think it's spiders and the indications their webs/burrows give as to El Nino.
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 03/08/2006 12:38

My guess at another LaNina looks to be diminishing by the day. The lows that keep persisting near PNG are further enhancing NW winds across the equator and enhancing the warming in the pacific. Very unusual patterns for this time of the year.
Posted by: Tempest

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 03/08/2006 12:55

I agree runoff, only have to look at the last 30 days of negative SOI's.
Posted by: adon

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 03/08/2006 23:53

Didn't this(low off PNG) happen last year too? Or was it the year before.
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 05/08/2006 17:13

Check the daily reading for the soi -50 . I don't think I have ever seen a reading that low. eek eek
Posted by: Keith

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 05/08/2006 21:32

We had a reading lower than that in 2004 (-63.3 2nd April). It was followed a few weeks later by a sharp rise into positive territory.

Daily readings are of little consequence in the long term, but of course a string of them will send the usual (30-day) measure down like a lead balloon. I wouldn't expect it will stay in this generally lower area for more than about 10 days.
Posted by: sugar mill tour guide

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 06/08/2006 08:41

well run off i think it quite normal to be dry at this time of year. Boy we did get chilly here with my weather station recored a chilly min of 3.5 deg at 5. 22am. the airport was slightly diffrent. most of the reading for Proserpine r from our airport.
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 06/08/2006 18:46

I realise they are of little value ,just a passing remark.
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 06/08/2006 18:48

-63.9 today !
Posted by: Tempest

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 07/08/2006 15:24

Current daily SOI figures are a real worry.
Posted by: sugar mill tour guide

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 07/08/2006 15:34

blowing so hard here today
Posted by: KevD

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 07/08/2006 15:36

Yep some of the figures at the moment are quite extraordinary. 90 day is now into double negative figures and the current round of daily totals is going to be pushing it down pretty quickly.. Still over 50 below today...Not good - I blame Runoff for starting this thread wink
Posted by: sugar mill tour guide

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 07/08/2006 15:42

i actually think the soi machine caught frost bite
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 08/08/2006 12:45

Thamks Kevin. I blame me too. The pacific ocean doesn't know what it's doing at the moment , so we have no chance. Current sub-surface maps show a rapid cooling toward Sth America in the past few days and more cool pooling on the thermocline. I guess it's fair to say that things are finely balanced at the moment. I won't be getting too down in the mouth about the soi just yet. Given we are in the driest months of the year it doesn't mean a great deal. I should have called the thread "I am backing a strong El nino". Then it would piss down all year. wink
Posted by: Tempest

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 08/08/2006 13:35

You might be able to redeem yourself over the next few months, most models are forcasting for warmer waters to shift west again.
Posted by: Keith

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 08/08/2006 15:00

The latest weekly tropical climate note, which you can read here , suggests that the recent warming in the far eastern Pacific has peaked, and that the recent short periodicity of the MJO looks set to become longer (I think that will mean up to 50 days instead of 30). There is nothing to indicate El Nino is around the corner, especially as the most favoured time for its development has now passed.

I had hoped that on the balance of probability, we would see the start of a wetter cycle of years before too long. Whether warming trends in the Indian Ocean will generate some northwest cloudbands in a couple of months, remains to be seen. For Sydney, temperature fluctuations in the Indian Ocean do not significantly affect the rainfall it receives for August to October.

If we take a place such as Canowindra (central western plains of NSW), we also see a similar lack of significance. For a rain event of 25mm in 3 days, it could expect to receive such a fall by 14th September with a warming Indian Ocean, and 26th September with a cool ocean. The median date (all years) is 17th September, which means it has a 50% chance of receiving 25mm in 3 days by that date.

I haven't looked in depth at other places either in NSW or out of it, but a cursory view indicates that the southwest slopes of NSW receive heavier rains for the above period with a warming Indian Ocean, than at other times.
Posted by: adon

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 08/08/2006 15:42

Well here's hoping that we see some beefy trade winds return to the Pacific soon Would also love to see the NW Australian coast continus to warm as it has slowly been doing. A wet spring would be a huge shot in the arm to the whole of the country.
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 08/08/2006 16:55

It does appear that the trades are strengthening again in the eastern pacific, but who knows for how long. I hope your models are right Tempest. Long dry summers are well past their use by date. A wet christmas would do just fine.

On another note, Some professor on the news the other night reckons that solar activity will increase in a couple of years from now and increase our flood rains. He went on to say that the past 10 years had seen little solar activity.
Posted by: Keith

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 08/08/2006 18:04

We are exiting a sunspot minimum at present. I seem to recall that the La Nina event of 1973/4 that brought the wettest summer in 100 years to Central Australia, occurred when sunspots were peaking.

If the professor is correct, it will reinforce my long-held view that we are in for a cycle of wetter years.
Posted by: sugar mill tour guide

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 08/08/2006 19:14

well guys does any one pay attention to the weather forecast for the central coast and Whitsundays. well where expecting big king tides to exceed the hat that abit of a worry cause i was down at Midge Point this afternoon and to my surpise i wonder what going to happen to all the hay bails. ROund 3 here it comes i wonder how long it wil last this time
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 09/08/2006 20:56

Yeah keith, the season of 1973/74 surely was extrodinary across the whole country, particularly across the northern 2 thirds of the continent which saw 700-1000mm in January alone.

Looks like most signs are creeping away from an el nino at the moment, but i wont hold my breath as it seems to be fluctuating one way then the other. Trades are starting to pick up (at last), our waters are starting to get warmer. Also the reason the SOI is so low is due to these lingering strong ridges which are extending right up to darwin allowing higher pressure figures. the SOI should rise up rapidly in the coming weeks/months as we get into the warmer months to around +3 (90 day avg) by Dec, and the summer (imo) will be wetter (if not the wettest in 5 years) across most of the tropics and the east coasts.
Posted by: Mick10

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 09/08/2006 21:29

Quote:
Originally posted by Bokkey:
the summer (imo) will be wetter (if not the wettest in 5 years) across most of the tropics and the east coasts.
totally agree, i expect the tropics are going to have a bumper wet this year.
Posted by: adon

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 09/08/2006 21:41

Well law of averages has to point to wetter than average at SOME stage! Just hope that we can get a wetter than average year. We are in our 10th year of below average rain.

Was just looking at the TAO charts for the ocean buoys. Seems that the trade winds are nearly back to normal apart from the PNG area. But that low also looks to be weakening so hope by next week we can see lot of arrow pointing to us!

Just another thing with TAO charts, there was an area over near Sth America with no arrows there. Is that an area with no buoys or no wind?
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 10/08/2006 16:32

No wind.
Posted by: adon

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 10/08/2006 16:53

But wouldn't that show up as an anomily on the other chart? Or is that a doldrum area?
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 10/08/2006 17:17

Probably the latter. I think there are probably weak easterlies there Adon. They just haven't drawn them in. Note too that todays surface maps are showing the east coast of Australia is starting to warm. At the same time the temps off Sth America have dropped about 0.5 degrees in the past week.
Posted by: Raindammit

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 11/08/2006 14:52

Yay!!

Here's what the infamous Ken Ring (aka, Moon Man) has to say about the coming wet:

Extreme events (I'm guessing fo the whole of 2007)
Times to watch out for next year are cyclonic storms in Mt Isa at the start of April which could mean huge amounts of rain and flooding in the second week in April, that will be from that cyclone crossing the coast, then in the first and last week in May, next in the last week in Aug. and finally in the last week of December.

2007 may begin with a hot first and last week in January. However January may be the wettest month in nine years for many. Expect a record-hot last week in February. 10 March begins a heatwave to SA, ripening fruit and grapes prematurely. Around the same time in northern SA torrential rains may bring flooding. Around 24 March violent storms affect stock in central and SE districts. In mid April a tropical cyclone will hit N QSLD, affecting Townsville. Later in the year November and December could be unusually warm. Torrential rain along the east coast may ruin many vegetable growers' crops in 2007. Mid December sees a storm in NW Sydney causing flooding.


I wonder if Jennifer Lawson will make another appearance this year in the Cairns Post?? She needn't bother her predictions were crap last year..
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 11/08/2006 15:22

lol? dont even bother following that prediction. For one, the necessity of having "on march 24 violent storms will occur" is totally irrelevant, thats whether they get storms on that day or not. This has been mentioned in several sentences, and since its been written by the "Mooon man"..we understand wink . May i also ask, where was that super typhoon which he forecast was going to hit Brisbane in February this year? maybe the satellites didnt pick it up confused
Posted by: Raindammit

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 11/08/2006 16:37

LOL yes he missed that one. Whats more amusing is how he changed his predictions on his website after the event had happened to make it look like he'd predicted it. laugh
Posted by: adon

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 11/08/2006 18:34

I reckon he did that for his preditions of THIS YEAR! I am sure he said while being interviewed that 2006 would be wet. Cannot find a transcript of that interview tho. I am positive he said it tho. At least next year has been saved on somthing that will not dissappear!
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 11/08/2006 18:42

lol, well 2006 aint been very wet, in fact its been the driest start i can remember. But i guess these things are hard to predict.
Posted by: adon

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 11/08/2006 19:03

I heard it on Lawsie one morning he was going on about all these rain dates and other crap. I love it how he puts in his forecasts stuff like premature ripenings of fruit and such. Sounds like a prophet more tha a weather forecaster!
Posted by: BD (Bucketing Down)

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 11/08/2006 20:28

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/index.html
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 12/08/2006 09:24

Computer models are wrong alot of the time Holts. In the meantime we can all have fun guessing.
Posted by: adon

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 12/08/2006 10:58

SOI is finally starting to come up a little. smile only -8 or so yesterday. :rolleyes: Starting to see a cool patch near Sth America now. Hope it stays around and gets a LOT bigger!
Posted by: BD (Bucketing Down)

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 12/08/2006 17:18

The real SOI is the 30 day mean down to minus 15 today and falling rapidly over the past week or so.
The daily has dropped today from the minus 8 yesterday to -11 or so today once again.

I know computer models can be wrong and I pay not much attention to those overseas ones really. But it has lloked like a El-Nino all year from my observations and from my computer models of SOI which have predicted July and October to be around minus 10 to minus 12 or so all year. The under sea temps resemble 1982 and 2002 in quite a few respects which were both late El-Nino developing years. Trouble is by the time they call an official El-Nino we ussually have had 4 to 5 months of dry weather similar to this year.
But have fun looking and forecasting I enjoy all the comments greatly. It is all a difficult business to predict. The "solar man" from Europe now dead predicted an El Nino from July 2006 to May 2007 I noted last year. It is on my web-site in the links but I cant think of his name atm.

Any cool burst even if short-lived ussually does something to make it a bit wetter so even a minor cool surge would be good. But personally, anyway, I feel it would only be minor and short-lived.
Posted by: BD (Bucketing Down)

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 12/08/2006 17:20

Incidently, I don't follow the solar theory, or use it in my computer models. But on larger climatic time scales it does appear to have some credability.
Posted by: BD (Bucketing Down)

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 12/08/2006 17:40

Anyway, I'll butt out of the forum for now, and let you guys get back to your discussions...and I'll just read with interest.
Posted by: desert_of_flames

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 12/08/2006 18:20

everyone is entitled to an opinion holts, don't take it to heart too much, we still value your input.
Posted by: BD (Bucketing Down)

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 12/08/2006 19:00

I was not taking it to heart, dof. I just thought that maybe I have said to much for the moment and hogging it a bit, so I'd be a bit quieter for a time.
That was all. Thanks for the concern though.
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 12/08/2006 22:14

Yeah no-one was having a go at you mate. I just hope your wrong. This part of the world has seen far too many dry summers of late. Also I'd hardly say you were hogging the forum. Your input is valued.
Posted by: Keith

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 13/08/2006 11:11

Hear, hear. It seems Holts that you have quite a lot of valuable knowledge to share so please keep it coming. smile

If I can sort some software processes out, I will post the results of an analysis I am starting to do on the SOI to see whether there are cycles of ups and downs with it.
Posted by: BD (Bucketing Down)

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 14/08/2006 20:24

There are certainly cycles up and down on a daily and monthly basis caused by the lows and highs going past Tahiti and Darwin, and the MJO's and the changes in sea surface temps. Looking at Monthly SOI since 1896 visually does not look particularly cyclic other than the fact that it goes up and down irregularly!
But I doubt that you will make much sense of that Keith, in a regular cyclic type of oscillations form. But very good luck with it anyway. You may find something worthwhile in the background which the software can find that visually would be too hard to see.
Posted by: Keith

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 15/08/2006 11:41

I have before me notes of what has been attempted in regard to the detection of repeating cycles of El Nino. Unfortunately another software package was used and my lack of mathematics is making the task just about impossible. But I will see what happens.
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 20/08/2006 15:00

hopes for a la nina are fading every day. A major westerly wind burst in the western half of the pacific at the moment is giving a clear indication that a disasterous el nino is imminent.
Posted by: adon

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 20/08/2006 15:15

Yeah been watching that frown and just as a cool spike was starting on the east side too. frown frown What's the go it seem all of these developments are WAY out of time? The last La nina was at the wrong time and so is this.
Posted by: adon

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 20/08/2006 15:45

Just looking at this global wind image.
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/rnl/sfcwnd_07a.rnl.gif

Looks like there are two lows. One near PNG and the other near Sth America. Very bad and very strange. I am pretty sure I am looking at this right. The colours tell the wind speeds and the arrows show anomalies. Dunno how accurate this is but good to get a picture of what is going on.
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 20/08/2006 16:04

and theres a strong high in the north atlantic in the middle of august, very strange things going on.
Posted by: ---

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 20/08/2006 20:42

Yeah I saw that Boris... seems like someting indefinately out of the ordinary with the air pressure hovering around 1035- 1040 hPa the last I heard. eek
Posted by: Squid

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 20/08/2006 20:46

i wonder what all this means for summer
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 20/08/2006 21:01

heh, im as confuzzled as you are. But this is an infinite way bet as to what this means for summer. And its something i cant wait to find out. The wave of continuous upper trough passages over the southern states which have been apparent all winter seems to be holding its pattern with another system expected on thursday which may deliver some inland rain in NSW. If this continues through spring and summer the entire eastern seaboard might be in for something special, and this is one of the factors upon which im basing my explosive storm season for. :cheers:
Posted by: adon

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 20/08/2006 21:51

I se on CNN that India has been getting a pounding with this year's monsoon so that doesn't really fit with Elnino so there may be hope yet. I have been saying for a while we are in a type of summer setup as far as weather systems goe. As for what it hold for us is a mystery
Posted by: BD (Bucketing Down)

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 20/08/2006 22:51

For interest for you guys. I have done correlations of the SOI with summer rain and for the last 15 years
if the SOI is negative in OCT before the summer and the SOI is negative in January( IE Some sort of eL-nino or at least negtive SOI), then there is BETTER tropical rainfall in Northern New South Wales especially and also to a reasonable extent in QLD in Summer, than if the SOI were positive or la-nina conditions in OCT before and in January ie the opposite to what one would logically think. Northern WA however, goes the way you would think, ie vice-versa to the above.
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 20/08/2006 23:25

Last year was very strange in that we had a weak lanina going into summer but the rain didn't arrive until February. The flood downpours that I have encountered here in the Whitsundays have mostly occured in Elnino years or at least when the soi is on the positive side. It seems that if you have those hot dry periods in between the mjo cycles that when the rains arrive ,they do so with more severity.
\
Your theory would appear to have some merit holts.
Posted by: bob the buildup

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 21/08/2006 10:23

Hi holts

Do you have any info on the Top End? 1997/98/99 were Darwin`s 3 wettest years on record and I have a suspicion that at least one of those years was el-nino.

When you live in the northern tropics, it only takes one benevolent tropical low/cyclone to be slow moving in the right location for huge falls to occur over a large area, and this can happen in el-nino or la-nina.
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 21/08/2006 15:26

Very true bob. Looking back at Queensland's history of cyclones, the more severe ones tend to form in Elnino years. Not last year though. Very little was normal about last summer however.
Posted by: sugar mill tour guide

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 21/08/2006 18:41

hey guys gee hasnt it warmed up. Very huimid and sticky in the morning. yeah defiltently the change of season is on the horizon
Posted by: BD (Bucketing Down)

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 21/08/2006 19:22

Hi Bob the Build-up

I have not got it just on hand, but will process it through my computer program and let you know tommorow if I can get to it. probably will as I am interested in the results myself anyway!

Cheers, holts
Posted by: Mick10

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 21/08/2006 19:28

Quote:
Originally posted by runoff:
Not last year though. Very little was normal about last summer however.
lol how true. can only wonder what this year is going to bring.
Posted by: sugar mill tour guide

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 22/08/2006 10:00

sorry to change the subject here but winter has long gone im afraid. Although the nights r crispy the day time temps r getting warmer. So guys brace urself for a long hot summer. good day peoples
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 22/08/2006 16:55

The trend toward another dry summer looks like continuing. As someone has already mentioned above ,the warming effect of the constant northerlies is starting to tell on the thermocline. It is telling also that the trades are all but non-existent off the Sth American coast. The soi remains strongly negative (not unusual howver at this time of year) and we are having an early burst of spring. Something needs to change dramatically for a reversing effect to take hold. Only 4 weeks until the sun moves into the southern hemisphere and with that , stronger passage of the mjo. Under current conditions that can only mean more equatorial westerlies.
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 22/08/2006 17:30

ur tellin me. another 25c down here in sydney, looks like its going to be the hottest august on record without a doubt. I can only wait for the day when the temp doesnt go over 25c here. I wonder if our next summer heatwave will be made up of 50c max's. last 3 years consecutively its been 36s-37s, 40-42s and last summer 45c+. doing the math, extrapolating the result, 48s-50s next time around.
Posted by: BD (Bucketing Down)

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 22/08/2006 20:28

Hi again Bob the Buildup
The computer run on rainfall data from 1990 till 2005 inc showed all areas of NE NSW, QLD, NT and north WA correlated mainly moderately with the SOI for Spring rainfall ie higher SOI better Spring rainfall...Does not bode well for the current minus 15 if it continues and my models are forecasting it to stay negative through rest of Spring and Summer!

While the computer run on same data for summer rainfall showed fairly varying results:

All north WA still correlated moderately with the SOI in the same manner as Spring ie HIgher SOI in Spring and Summer higher rainfall.
This was also the case in the Alice Springs to Top End boundary in NT.

However, the Top End only showed a slight preference for a postive SOI correlation with higher summer rainfall, in fact it was not really very significant at all!

The Peninsula QLD showed a slight to moderate correlation with the SOI ie again higher SOI better rainfall generally.

While Gulf and other north QLD areas showed little if any prefernce for the SOI either way with summer rainfall.

Central Inland QLD and Southern QLD and NE NSW inland liked a negative SOI better for higher summer rainfall, especially NE NSW areas.

I did not do coastal strip of QLD which is all different and too hard to get all varying data, as I don't forecast for the coastal strip anyway!
Sorry for those guys who live there!

I now have all the data to extend my seasonal forecasting service up north of the Capricorn, so I will work the models all out with the various and many sea surface temp variables and offer them for service to the Cattle areas of north WA, NT and QLD...but that is a much more complex job so it will take ne a week or so to complete of number crunching.

Anyway, it was an interesting exercise with the SOI. Hope it is of some use to you all up there.

Cheers, holts

.

summer
Posted by: BD (Bucketing Down)

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 22/08/2006 20:47

The areas that had quite high correlation with the SOI for Spring are All of Nth QLD, especially Peninsula areas which were highest correlations.
Also The Top End NT and North top of WA and a dew areas of NE NSW also had high corelations with Spring SOI. That is in the period from 1990 to 2005 anyway.
So those areas are likely to be the drier ones in Spring if SOI stays negative, but that is a forecast based soley on the SOI... and not on any other sea surface temps which may alter the scenario somewhat and ussually does...although having said that the SOI does its best work in the Spring and is less important in other seasons anyway.
Posted by: AussieMark79

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 22/08/2006 21:12

Quote:
Originally posted by Bokkey:
ur tellin me. another 25c down here in sydney, looks like its going to be the hottest august on record without a doubt. I can only wait for the day when the temp doesnt go over 25c here. I wonder if our next summer heatwave will be made up of 50c max's. last 3 years consecutively its been 36s-37s, 40-42s and last summer 45c+. doing the math, extrapolating the result, 48s-50s next time around.
Max in Sydney over the last few summers is as follows

22-Dec-2000 - 38.7°C
1-Jan-2002 - 36.9°C
18-Jan-2003 - 39.0°C
11-Feb-2004 - 37.8°C
1-Dec-2004 - 40.0°C
1-Jan-2006 - 44.2°C
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 22/08/2006 21:27

After writing today I viewed an article on the ABC website which is saying we are most likely heading toward an El nino summer.Sorry I don't know how to post links but you can find it at ABC news online.
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 22/08/2006 21:39

Yeah Aussie Mark, you can see a pattern developing. It seems to be increasing by about 3-4c the last few years, would be devestating if it kept going that way.
Posted by: bob the buildup

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 23/08/2006 09:19

Thanks a lot for that, holts! Interesting stuff. :cheers:

Quote:
However, the Top End only showed a slight preference for a postive SOI correlation with higher summer rainfall, in fact it was not really very significant at all!
One of the reasons possibly for this is that summer is also the peak monsoon period up here and when you have the general randomness in movement of lows/cyclones from year to year. eg a cyclone develops in the GOC...if it moves east The Top End and N WA get bugger all rainfall and the monsoon`s focus moves away from this area....if the cyclone moves west we probably get large rainfall totals with the monsoon focussing over the NW of the country. So, although you may have less cyclones in an el-nino year, it doesn`t necessarily correlate that you will get less rainfall.

El-nino probably has more effect on the Top End/N WA during Spring because that corresponds to our build-up period, where rainfall is reliant on convective shower/storm activity.
Posted by: Keith

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 23/08/2006 12:59

The trend in the above figures is misleading. No-one would seriously believe that it will keep going up at that rate. What we should be paying closer attention to, is whether there is a higher incidence of temperatures say in the top 10 percent of historical data.
Posted by: AussieMark79

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 23/08/2006 13:27

in recent years these are amount of days per summer season of days of 30C+, 90F+, 35C+, 100F+, 40C+ in December 1 - February 29 at Observatory Hill

30C
1997/98: 22
1998/99: 4
1999/00: 9
2000/01: 18
2001/02: 10
2002/03: 11
2003/04: 16
2004/05: 8
2005/06: 19

90F/32.2C
1997/98: 10
1998/99: 1
1999/00: 4
2000/01: 5
2001/02: 6
2002/03: 4
2003/04: 9
2004/05: 6
2005/06: 8

35C
1997/98: 4
1998/99: 0
1999/00: 1
2000/01: 3
2001/02: 3
2002/03: 3
2003/04: 4
2004/05: 3
2005/06: 3

100F/37.8C
1997/98: 2
1998/99: 0
1999/00: 0
2000/01: 2
2001/02: 0
2002/03: 1
2003/04: 1
2004/05: 3
2005/06: 2

40C
1997/98: 0
1998/99: 0
1999/00: 0
2000/01: 0
2001/02: 0
2002/03: 0
2003/04: 0
2004/05: 1
2005/06: 1
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 23/08/2006 14:33

I recently saw a program which refered to the sun's activity or rather lack of activity being a contributor to the string of Elnino events and ever climbing summer temperatures. A lack of sunspot activity he claimed caused a predictable weather pattern albeit one of drought. He went further to say that a change is on the horizon and a return to more traditional wet seasons with the flooding rains is just around the corner.

Maybe he is right and I hope so. One thing he touched on that is that the last 10 years the climate has been very predictable and not in a good way.
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 23/08/2006 14:38

The national climate centre have today announced an increased risk of an El nino summer this year , with a reduced chance of rainfall for Nth Eastern Australia including part of the Northern Territory. Can we change the name of this thread to "I no longer predict a weak La nina"?
Posted by: Keith

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 23/08/2006 14:52

Here's a chart of the above data:



I have inserted linear trend lines for 4 of the 5 periods (ie excluding the 40°c + group, as there are only 2 of them). The equations show the annual trend, which is the number to the left of the 'x'.

The linear trend may not be the correct fit, and so may give an inaccurate idea of the trend. But they will do for now.
Posted by: bob the buildup

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 23/08/2006 15:09

I wouldn`t panic just yet, runoff ol` mate. Check this out for a bizarre anomaly.

The 1997/1998 period was a massive el-nino period. During this period, this is what happened:

With sea-surface temperature exceeding 28°C off the coast of Ecuador and northern Peru, rainfall in December 1997 and January 1998 reached 350 to 775 mm, 15 times the average. This resulted in flooding and landslides, andthe destruction of roads, houses and crops. In Peru alone, the damage was estimated at $US 3.6 billion. Hundreds of people disappeared, cholera and malaria broke out.

Drought over Indonesia and Papua New Guinea caused the destruction of 2.1 million hectares of trees, through forest fires. Total damage was estimated at $US 4.4 billion, with hundreds of casualties through famine and disease.

In Darwin, the 1997-98 wet, when 2,499 millimetres was recorded, was the BIGGEST wet on record.


Now I highly doubt that there is any serious correlation between el-nino periods and increased rainfall in the northern tropics, but it is certainly a quirky little coincidence that Darwin`s wettest ever year occurred during an extreme el-nino period.......kind of like the smallest cyclone in recorded world history (Tracy) making a direct hit on one of the most isolated cities in the world. eek
Posted by: Mick10

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 23/08/2006 16:25

also note that the '97/'98 wet was the wettest on record for townsville aswell with an entire years rainfall being recorded in a week in Jan '98.
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 23/08/2006 17:43

Yeah I remember Darwin getting it's wettest season on record. I was kind of surprised that it was only 2.5mts. Anyway I appreciate you guys cheering me up. Dry summers are my worst nightmare. Hence my attempts to move to Australia's wettest city.
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 23/08/2006 17:48

Keep those charts and associated data coming Keith. I for one appreciate the effort you are putting in. Bob there is some link between Elnino and floods across the top end. Probably due to the slow movement of any systems.The heaviest short period downburst always seem to occur during elnino. However it is the strong events that concern me, i.e 1983 when all of Australia copped a belting from the sun.
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 23/08/2006 18:29

Quote:
Dry summers are my worst nightmare
amen to that! same here brother smile
Posted by: adon

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 23/08/2006 22:26

Ummm is that an MJO west in indonesia ATM? They move from W-E don't they?
Posted by: AussieMark79

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 23/08/2006 22:50

The MJO wet phase is Currently in Eastern Pacific and Eastern Atlantic



The MJO is an intraseasonal fluctuation or “wave” occurring in the global tropics. The MJO is responsible
for the majority of weather variability in these regions and results in variations in several important
atmospheric and oceanic parameters which include both lower- and upper-level wind speed and direction,
cloudiness, rainfall, sea surface temperature (SST), and ocean surface evaporation. The MJO is a naturally
occurring component of our coupled ocean-atmosphere system and the typical length of the MJO cycle or
wave is approximately 30-60 days
Posted by: adon

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 23/08/2006 23:01

Yeah just looked like some wet weather in the central Indian ATM
Posted by: Tempest

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 24/08/2006 08:46

Bob, Mick, as you know, those events were very isolated, the link between el-nino and drought is real, we need large areas of soaking rain, and for that to happen we need la-nina, be it mild or strong: cool SST's off Peru and warm S.S.T's off Aus.

I hope the current trend changes dramatically. Some good news is that there have been positive daily SOI's over the last ten days.

Current SST\'s
Posted by: Mick10

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 24/08/2006 09:06

yes they sure are isolated, the tville event was classified as a once in 500year event!
still can only hope u guys get a good decent follow up wet season, back to back decent wets are starting to be few and far between.
Posted by: Tempest

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 24/08/2006 13:22

Mick, that was one heck of a storm. One of our employees who use to live in Townsville always loves to talk about it.
Posted by: BD (Bucketing Down)

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 24/08/2006 15:06

Hi Tempest, I reckon "some weakly positive SOI's on some days of the last ten days" would be better summary than your fairly optomistic, "there have been positive daily SOI's over the last ten days"!
It still looks a pretty ominous set of figures to me, anyway. I would like to see a lot better set of rises than that to get too enthused at the moment.
http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscillationIndex/30DaySOIValues/
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 24/08/2006 17:37

I agree Holts. Looking at the surface maps in conjunction with strong westerlies blowing to our nth east, Ithink things are more than likely going to worsen.
We would need a dramatic change in the current pattern for any turn around. I am not sure how old all you guys and gals are and I don't want to sound like grandfather joe. 1983 was a strong el nino event and believe me when I say it was dry. The stronger the event the less likelyhood of rain. It is couple with horribly dry air and almost zero humidity. Give me the rain anyday.
Posted by: Tempest

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 25/08/2006 09:42

Hi Holt, if you read the sentence before the one you posted it clearly suggests that I am not that enthusiastic.

"I hope the current trend changes dramatically"
Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 25/08/2006 09:56

We are currently going through the time of year when higher pressures over the Australian continent contribute towards a negative SOI. Perhaps in the next few weeks rising temperature will cause a heat low to form over NW Australia, and this could result in the SOI returning towards a positive value?
Posted by: BD (Bucketing Down)

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 25/08/2006 12:05

Hi Rainy Night.
The SOI pressures are taken on changes from the mean pressure which would take into account the heat lows that normally occur in Spring, although if they form earlier than normal it would make for a slighlty better SOI....but look of the westerly winds over western Pacific, weakened trade winds over the rest and the cool to warm sea surface temp gardient from north of Australia to the Central Pacific Ocean Area would suggest that any rise would only be weak and of a temporary nature to me anyway! We shall see.

PS. Yes, OK Tempest. Fair enough comment!
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 26/08/2006 01:32

LoL Tempest. There wouldn't be person in the tropics that is enthused aboout what's happening in the pacific at the moment.
Posted by: AussieMark79

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 26/08/2006 08:31

if we are heading for a La Nina I have major doubts

u don't get category 5 hurricanes in the Northern Central Pacific during La Nina seasons
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 26/08/2006 11:22

No-one is forecasting a Lanina Mark. Things have changed somewhat since this thread was started.
Posted by: adon

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 26/08/2006 20:46

I have noticed that the WWB is not increasing in the Pacific. Doesn't seem to be spreading further East either so maybe not as bad as it first looked. The cool tongue that I have been watching has all but gone now but there is still a cool spot further off the Sth American coast and it seems to be getting cooler. Was looking at a weekly global wind chart today I reckon the huge clockwise wind feature in the Sth Pacific has moved East and the same with a smaller one omgin into WA. Hope this can change the rain situation for us but have no idea of the ENSO effects.

See what you reckon
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/rnl/sfcwnd_07a.rnl.gif
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 27/08/2006 11:15

The stormsurf charts show a dramatic change even since yesterday, with the westerlies being weakened dramatically. It also shows a strong burst of easterly winds on the equator nth of Fiji.
I don't want to get excited yet because whenever I do it swings the other way. Interesting forecast for the week ahead with showers increasing up the Qld coast and moderate falls inland through the granite belt. All this 2 days after the bureau said we won't see any rain before the end of the year.
Posted by: adon

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 27/08/2006 11:37

I read somthing last night about a tropical wave in the Pacific moving west but was slowly weakening. It is probably what you are seeing runoff. Prolly weakening beacuse it is hitting the WWB. Good to see that maybe we still have a chance of not going into full blown Elnino but what we are in now is just as bad so will need somthing to change for the good VERY soon.

Gee that HAS changed overnight! just looked at the TAO chart! laugh
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 29/08/2006 23:34

Latest sub-surface charts have a warm pool on the thermocline at 4 degs above normal. Hopefully it won't reach the Sth American coast that warm. It would almost certainly ruin any chance of a decent wet this summer.

Though warming at this time of year flies in the face of claims that May-June is the "predictability barrier". Very strange that they are talking El-nino onset in September.
Posted by: adon

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 29/08/2006 23:46

Yeah the winds are strange, the timing is just plain weird and non of this is good for us. Think we will have to set up one bloody huge fan near Sth America put it on high for a few months! Seems as though nothing will break this bloody drought. Does look like SE Qld is getting somthing now but really need moisture to be going well out into the centre.
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 30/08/2006 06:15

Looks like a fan is currently installed over that way with a 1037hpa high settling in the south central pacific. dont know how long itll stay here but itll help. As for that 4c anomaly at 50-100metres at 110-130W, we need a strong burst of trades to counter it and take the pressure off the el nino forming chances.
Posted by: adon

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 30/08/2006 12:00

We will have to hope that the high stay for a while and gets stronger then eh? If the high would only do what they have been doing here for the last few months we maybe onto a winner. NW coast has got really cold now so looks like any chance of a wet spring had fizzed now. frown
Posted by: KevD

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 30/08/2006 20:39

Well here is a snippet from the latest ENSO wrap from the BoM:

"After several months of mixed signals, a much more consistent pattern of key ENSO indicators has emerged during August. A further drop in the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), warming over much of the tropical Pacific and a marked decrease in the strength of the Trade Winds, are all indicative of the incipient phase of an El Niño event."

Not good frown Full details on their website...
Posted by: Keith

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 30/08/2006 21:00

This graph is interesting



in that there appears to be some sort of a cycle.
Notice 2 things:

1. A sharp fall towards July 2004 following what appears to have been a steady rise (with superimposed smaller falls), after a rather bumpy (but more or less stationary) ride for 12 months from 2004 to 2005;
2. The latest fall, the biggest since 2005, preceded again by a steady rise with superimposed smaller falls.

I am probably drawing a pretty short straw, but I just wonder if this suggests a trend, one that I have been predicting will happen sooner or later, and that is a return to wetter cycles of years. If we are just 'bottoming out' and history repeats itself, then we should see some more of the same, ie a long term rising trend with more smaller negative downturns superimposed, following a bit of a rocky trip at present SOI levels or thereabouts.

Statistically we should be long overdue for a widespread rain event. However on the negative side, there is the fact that the model outlooks predicting a neutral phase on the warm side, haven't taken account of the very low SOI in the last few weeks. However, weighted against this is the fact that usually we don't see El Nino developing at this time. I would suggest that we are having a very weak pseudo-El Nino that has developed a little later than the usual time (early-mid Autumn), and that this is the one we should have expected were we to have an El Nino of any sort at all. If I am right, then the outlook is hopefully not as gloomy as the models are suggesting. It would be my guess, in view of the foregoing, that the 'bumpy trip' I referred to, would end around the favoured time of April next year, possibly with the development of La Nina. But, as I said, it's a very short straw. Fingers crossed.
Posted by: adon

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 30/08/2006 21:43

Well Keith the outlook doesn't really matter down here anyway 'cos it's already stuffed so just hope you guys can have more luck with your wet season. We have/are in our drought!
Posted by: ant

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 30/08/2006 21:58

The local ABC TV news covered that prediction in the news (not the weather) tonight too.
Posted by: adon

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 30/08/2006 23:12

Just hope that this easterly surge that seems to be moving across the Pacific is the start of the return from the abyss. I see the westerlies that looked as they were going deep into the Pacific have nearly gone now and the easterly surge has nearly reached PNG. Hopefully this will be the start of a recovery. I suppose everybody is in the same boat when it comes to forecasting this as it is so wierd at theis time of year. We may be in for a really bad one or a fast recovery. Fingers crossed on the latter! wink
Posted by: BD (Bucketing Down)

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 30/08/2006 23:32

See new topic on General Weather as it affects all......." How long before an El-Nino year is called an El-Nino year?" Care to comment anyone, all the more the merrier!
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 30/08/2006 23:41

The next month will be the decider. At the moment the westerly wind burst has all but dissipated. You are right in saying it is unusual for it to form at this time of year, however last year the weak la-nina formed late also.
Posted by: BD (Bucketing Down)

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 31/08/2006 07:51

I did not say that Runoff actually, that was a quote from the Bureaus latest El-Nino statement. I personally do not think it is that unusual, but happens at least occasionally....though the warning El Nino signs appear much earlier imo anyway.
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 31/08/2006 17:11

Quote:
Originally posted by adon:
Yeah the winds are strange, the timing is just plain weird and non of this is good for us. Think we will have to set up one bloody huge fan near Sth America put it on high for a few months! Seems as though nothing will break this bloody drought. Does look like SE Qld is getting somthing now but really need moisture to be going well out into the centre.
This was the post I was commenting on. wink
Posted by: Keith

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 01/09/2006 10:12

I have drawn this graph which goes back a bit further than the one I posted before (which was from the BOM site).



Although I haven't checked further back in time, this series from 2001 shows what I think are cycles in the SOI. They are clearly indicated by the different coloured circles superimposed.
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 01/09/2006 11:20

One thing your graph highlights Keith is that the soi has spent a lot more time below the line than above it. No wonder it's so dry.
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 01/09/2006 13:02

Queensland as a whole has just recorded it's warmest August on record. A sign of things to come?
Posted by: adon

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 01/09/2006 14:44

I think that the Sth American Coast has cooled a little ober the last wek or so. While still not good I reckon it has backed off a bit. Also there seems to be cool spots right across the Pacific near or on the equator now so hope that this continues.

I wish there was an animation of the SST with that unisys map. Doesn't seem to have a archive either.
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html
Posted by: Raindammit

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 01/09/2006 14:49

Even worse news this afternoon from the ABC News website:

On this first day of spring there is little surprise at news Australia has endured its driest August since records began in 1900.

Preliminary figures show a national average rainfall of just 6.2 millimetres for August.

Overall, an average of 43.9 millimetres of rain fell across Australia during the winter.

Senior climatologist at the Bureau of Meteorology, Dr Andrew Watkins, says it has been decades since rain was so scarce.

"Australia-wide we only averaged about 6.2 millimetres for the month, so a very dry month," he said.

"Our previous driest Augusts were in 1914 and unfortunately 1982 is also a comparison - it had about 7.5 millimetres.

"The other problem has been with the soil moisture being very low, and hence that tends to encourage frosts unfortunately."


frown
Posted by: Carl Smith

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 01/09/2006 14:56

Here is a graph of the monthly SOI from 1940 to 2006:



Added to the graph in green are the phases of a long-term av 72 year solar cycle that due to perturbations in the motion of the Sun around the Solar System Barycentre is currently running fast at about 60 years.

Phase changes in this cycle correlate with SOI phase changes from El Nino dominated periods to La Nina dominated periods and vice-versa. Previous phase reversals in this regime occured in late 1913 (begin El Nino dominated phase), early 1947 (begin La Nina dominated phase), and late 1976 (begin El Nino dominated phase), and next occurs in early 2007 (begin La Nina dominated phase). Of course you still get significant El Nino events in a La Nina phase and vice versa.

If you look carefully, you will notice how well these solar phase changes correspond to SOI phase changes, with the period early 1947 to late 1976 dominated by La Nina (more blue) and the period late 1976 to present day dominated by El Nino (more red).

The currently developing El Nino is likely to peak around May 2007, and soon thereafter, because the regime has shifted to a La Nina dominated one, so we can expect to move into a period of several decades of higher rainfalls in eastern Australia along with a significant increase in cyclone impacts on the east coast.
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 01/09/2006 15:26

Making comparisons to August 82 for rainfall is a concern. The Elnino of 82/83 summer was the worst known and spawned Ash Wedneday.
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 01/09/2006 15:30

I am still not sure about a return to wet years. I really do want to believe it, however some senior meteorologists claim that global warming has contributed to more frequent el nino events and they also claim it will continue.
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 01/09/2006 15:37

Quote:
I wish there was an animation of the SST with that unisys map. Doesn't seem to have a archive either.
try this:

http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/?C=D;O=A

Archives since June 1998 wink
Posted by: Keith

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 01/09/2006 16:18

Carl, that fits in pretty well perfectly with what I have been expecting for a long time now. Thanks for that information. I wonder if we have both come to similar conclusions via different helicopters...and perhaps I will see my remaining years include a repeat of the June 1950 event.
Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 01/09/2006 16:44

Quote:
Originally posted by runoff:
I am still not sure about a return to wet years. I really do want to believe it, however some senior meteorologists claim that global warming has contributed to more frequent el nino events and they also claim it will continue.
What I have been hearing is some scientists claiming that global warming is contributing to both types of extreme weather, with more droughts associated with the el nino events and more severe floods and cyclones associated with la nina events. It makes sense to me, however, that only some of this would be related to human caused global warming, and the rest of it with the naturally occurring cycles in the weather pattern, so I tend to agree that a return to a cycle of wetter seasons may be expected in the next few years. I have also seen scientific theories about the inter-decadal cycles or oscillations on the US weather sites, and that also seems to be consistent with what we experienced in the 20th century in Australia. It seems that some proponents of global warming effects do not use a long enough period of observations on which to base their theories. It is also hard to see why some localised variations can be due to global warming. In the past 60 years or so, for example, we have had declining rainfalls in large areas of eastern Australia, and increasing rainfall in the north-western arid and semi-arid regions. I think that mother nature in her own good time will tend to sort these anomalies out.
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 01/09/2006 17:52

I'll have a bet each way. I am aware that many of the agencies pushing the global warming issue stand to benefit through economical means. I personally think broad scale clearing along the eastern seaboard is a contributor to the deficiencies. With alot more heat build up the showers are staying off the coast and heading further north. Note that the deficiency is where the clearing is at it's greatest.

I prey for a number of wet years ahead and believe it may happen , but year after year of drought tends to make me not so optimistic.
Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 01/09/2006 19:16

I have also for a long time thought that the excessive clearing of vegetation may have something to do with the rainfall deficiences in some areas. It would be difficult to prove, but it may help explain why normal to above average rainfall still seems to occur in remote areas unaffected by the clearing.
Posted by: BD (Bucketing Down)

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 01/09/2006 20:23

Interesting graph Carl, can you extend it back to 1876, as Bureau have figures on SOI back to 1876 on their site. I want to see if it looks like it should back to then also?
Cheers, Holts
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 01/09/2006 20:26

One thing i dont understand from that graph is how the green line suddenly jumps from top to bottom and vice versa, almost instantly. I mean, im no expert on how these solar cycles work in terms of value figures but dont they rise and fall gradually over time rather than suddenly?

But its nevertheless amazing to see the accuracy of the connection between the two. Lets hope things flip to the good side from next year onwards!
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 01/09/2006 23:27

Great work Carl. Some scientist on the news reckons the wet stuff will coincide with what your chart is saying. An increase in solar activity means wetter summers for us according to him.
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 02/09/2006 09:43

I dont believe clearing of vegetation has any impact on rainfall in any areas. The weather systems go by its daily basis and pick up moisture from the tropical oceans or remnants of moisture from another system and dumps the rain it creates from this. In 2000, the country endured its 2nd wettest year on record. The decile map was made up of only white and blue, and guess where the blue areas (above average - record rainfall) dominated, everywhere apart from the coastal areas in the east and some coastal areas in the south (the areas rich in vegetation). I also remember that back in 2003 and 2004 areas in central east WA and Giles in particular recorded 6 times more rainfall than sydney, brisbane and melbourne combined for a particular period. Showing how sparse vegetation in that area really doesnt explain this huge rainfall anomaly. Some of the driest areas in central WA get some weird rainfall patterns at any time of the year. I think that its all by chance, and things will balance out.
Posted by: JontyH

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 02/09/2006 12:47

Hi Carl, can you tell me a bit about this 72 year solar cycle? I'm aware of the Gleissberg cycle, which is a periodic perturbation of the 11 year sunspot cycle, but it appears to be attributed a period of 78 to 88 years in most references I've chased up.
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 02/09/2006 14:41

I think your theory being based on one year is very hit and miss Bokkey. The highest rainfall deficiencies (-500 mm per year) are on the coastal strip between Townsville and Gladstone.
Similar rainfall deficiencies are being record in cities around the world due to excessive heat build up.
According to one expert the heat build raises the cloud base , thus increasing the chance of evaporation before reaching the ground. Makes perfect sense to me. Strange that it doesn't rain in deserts. If deserts had high rainfall year round they wouldn't be deserts, they'd be rain forests.
Posted by: adon

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 02/09/2006 14:49

Bokkey I reckon that land clearding will only effect rainfall in rainforest in a local area and not effect ENSO. As you said there can be huge rainfall in desert areas so it shows that rainfall isn't entirely dependant on vegitation in the surrounding area. That being said a lot of farmers in the west of Vic reckon that the little desert national park does help surronding farms get a little more rainfall than others further away from it.
Posted by: Pacman

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 04/09/2006 07:29

From the ABC

El Nino preparations 'likely under way'
The Department of Primary Industries (DPI) says most farmers across Queensland would already be preparing for the possibility of another El Nino weather event.

The Bureau of Meteorology says there is an increasing risk an El Nino will develop this year, meaning reduced rainfall and warmer temperatures.

The DPI's Dr Roger Stone says there is only a 10 per cent chance of drought-breaking rain during spring.

"Many parts of the state are actually suffering enough as it is," he said.

"It's yet again another pretty careful approach to risk management as we say and it's a pretty cautious approach to the whole farming system at the moment to dig down and survive another fairly dry period."
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 04/09/2006 10:10

The indicators in the pacific are certainly swinging towards an El nino. Just what we don't need.
Posted by: Squid

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 04/09/2006 10:49

they should change hopefully, please
Posted by: Keith

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 05/09/2006 16:42

I crunched the numbers upon which Carl's graph is based, by doing statistical tests on the monthly SOI from the two periods (1947-1976 and 1977-2006).

The null hypothesis is:

That the change in the solar cycle had no significant effect on the average SOI over the two periods.

Procedure used:
1. Test the two sets for normality.
2. Test the variances of the two sets.
3. Run a t-test for the difference between the two means, using the result of 2.

The variances in the two sets were not significantly different at the 95% level (both sets were normally distributed). On a t-test of the means based on the variances being the same, there was next to no chance that the difference in the mean SOI of each dataset was due to chance.

One needs to be cautious here with interpreting the result..in the case of climate one can't assume that the sun's influence is the only one, but on the face of things, the test indicates that we should reject the hypothesis that the SOI was not affected by the change in the solar cycle.

I think something like this helps to support a conclusion that may cause some people to think that it's all off with the fairies somewhere because it relates to solar influences.
Posted by: Carl Smith

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 06/09/2006 00:44

Hi All.

My computer has been down for some days so I have not been able to contribute here - I installed a new CD burner and it trashed OSX - it is limping along on OS9 at the moment and it will take some days of backing up data on my old and really slow CD burner before I can do a low-level reformat of my main 80GB hard drive so I can re-install OSX (bad blocks in the boot sector need to be remapped and bypassed first). I love OSX when it works well (99.9% of the time) ... but it's a real pain when it gets trashed!

Note that just before my Mac meltdown I did a similar graph for the whole period the SOI has been available prior to the other graph, and it shows that further back the SOI signal appears to be far more random and does not correlate well - I do not know how good SOI data is further back - also there is some overlapping phase changes from various length solar cycles back then that need to be examined carefully before any proper analysis can be done.

I will get back to this fascinating topic as soon as I get my Mac sorted out.
Posted by: BD (Bucketing Down)

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 06/09/2006 08:13

Good luck with the computer Carl!
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 06/09/2006 11:44

Looking at the latest surface and subsarface maps we are more and more likely to see an El nino declared soon. Another strong WWB north of the Solomons on top of the 4 deg warm pool down on the thermocline. How far it spreads back across the pacific once the warm water reaches Sth America will determine our rainfall chances this summer.At this stage it's not looking too promising.
Posted by: Tempest

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 06/09/2006 12:57

I'd say its formed already, has been like this for a few weeks now.

SST\'s
Posted by: sugar mill tour guide

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 06/09/2006 13:36

yeah well i hope not run off, we need lots of rain and it getting so hot recently i wonder if thats a sign of cyclones.
Posted by: adon

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 06/09/2006 21:58

I reckon the SST anoms look better than they did 2 weeks ago IMO(surface anoms) Sth america seems to have cooled and the cool spot has re appeared at the Sth amaerican coast. While not saying we have turned the corner I think that we are not seeing El nino just yet. Maybe it's just because we finally got rain down here!

I will put this wind anom(5 day running average) link here. This to me anyway does look better than it did 2-3 weeks ago. You can cleary see the high pressure belt in the Pacific. It is a bit further S than I would like it but does seem to be doing some good.

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/rnl/sfcwnd_07a.rnl.gif
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 06/09/2006 22:45

Definitely not an El nino yet. The tongue of warm water is patchy at best. It's what's happening in the western pacific and down on the thermocline that worries me.
Posted by: BD (Bucketing Down)

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 07/09/2006 10:51

Don't you think that it is a bit strange that we have had SOI for 2006 at negative reasonable levels for 4 months now. Funny that ALL the years that have done that since 1972 were all El-Nino years of some sort!
Months May June July Aug Sept (So far)
2006 -8 -7 -7 -14 -9
2002 -15 -7 -2 -15 -8
1997 -22 -24 -10 -20 -15
1994 -13 -10 -18 -17 -17
1993 -8 -16 -11 -14 -8
1991 -19 -6 -2 -8 -16
1987 -22 -20 -19 -14 -11
1982 -8 -20 -19 -24 -21
1977 -11 -18 -15 -12 -9
1972 -16 -12 -19 -9 -15

Cheers, Ian
Posted by: BD (Bucketing Down)

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 07/09/2006 10:58

PS In fact there are NO other years that the SOI was negative for that period of months since 1972, other than those mentioned in my last table post.
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 07/09/2006 11:35

The most disturbing part is the frequency of the events in the past 15 years.
Posted by: Raindammit

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 07/09/2006 14:38

Looking at those figures though, 2006 is not as far into the negatives as the other years listed, so maybe if El-Nino comes, it won't be a bad one. Also, the end of 1997 quickly flipped into a La-Nina come Jan '98, leading to widespread rains across the entire northern half of the country.
Posted by: BD (Bucketing Down)

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 07/09/2006 14:59

As did 1972-73, 1982-83, 1977-78, as well as 1997-98, raindammit. (Not sure about 1994-95 or 1987-88 though good rains did oocur in many areas in the next year)
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 07/09/2006 17:22

It really is only the 90's where good follow up rain hasn't occured. After the 82-83 event and the subsequent ash wednesday bushfires, the southern states had very good rainfall and low altitude snow fall the following winter. So I would agree that it is not all doom and gloom. However I would much rather be looking at a positive 10 soi than a negative one.
Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 07/09/2006 23:35

Well, it seems perhaps the SOI is heading in the right direction now, with the 30 day average rising from around minus 15 two weeks ago to near -7 today.
Posted by: El Jefe

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 07/09/2006 23:44

SOI will be helped now by the upcoming low pressures over Darwin... as we move into the wet, the pressure should lower somewhat.. which, hopefully, should lessen the very negative SOI's currently being experienced! laugh Not being as technically minded as you guys, I'm thinking that if we go El-nino, it won't be as deep an event as we're all fearing! and as the long range forecasters keep saying.. things should by and large remain neutral for the next 3-6 months..... Hopefully! laugh
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 08/09/2006 00:48

Most of the models made forecasts before the strong warming that took place in August. One thing I have notice on the sub-surface charts is that the warm pool on the thermocline seems reluctant to move any further towards Sth America. Almost as if it is being held back. It's been in the same area for a month now.
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 08/09/2006 00:49

Water temps on the east coast of Australia have warmed slightly also over the past week.
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 08/09/2006 07:21

And the easterly winds have strengthened from the central pacific to PNG:

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/nmoc/latest_fwo_loop.pl?IDCODE=IDYTX003.10M&number=2

I have some doubts whether an elnino will form. If it does it will be short lived and weak, but something is there preventing it's development.
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 08/09/2006 09:51

I hope you're right Bokkey. Those charts clearly show easterly winds, however they are in stark contrast to stormsurf's maps which show a strong wwb north of the Solomons at the moment.
Posted by: Tempest

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 08/09/2006 17:27

Daily SOI +9, 30 day -6.83, gradually starting to climb.
Posted by: Pacman

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 08/09/2006 21:01

An interesting article as follows from India in regard to the effect of elnino on the Indian Southwest Monsoon-


Scientists solve riddle of El Niño and Indian monsoon
Monsoon clouds over Lucknow, IndiaT. V. Padma
7 September 2006
Source: SciDev.Net

[NEW DELHI] Scientists have solved the riddle of why some El Niño events cause the Indian monsoon to fail while others do not, which may lead to more accurate forecasts of drought.

Severe droughts in India have always occurred in El Niño years, when the Pacific Ocean heats up, yet every El Niño does not cause monsoon failure and drought — a mystery that researchers have been struggling to crack.

Accurate monsoon prediction is crucial to India's economy: nearly one-fifth of the country's gross domestic product comes from agriculture. Even moderate crop failures have severe economic and societal impacts.

Research published online by Science today (7 September) shows that it depends on whether the surface of the equatorial Pacific Ocean is warmest in the east, along Latin America, or closer to the centre.

Martin Hoerling of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder, United States, and his colleagues say India is more prone to drought when the warm Pacific temperatures typical of El Niño extend westwards into the central Pacific Ocean.

The team analysed 23 strong El Niño years and their links to 13 droughts and 10 drought-free years in India, using satellite observations of sea surface temperatures and historical data of rainfall over central India.

Having found that drought was associated with warm water in the central Pacific, they used computer models to mimic the patterns, which confirmed their findings.

The researchers suggest that the "two flavours of El Niño" might affect the Indian monsoon differently through the tropical Walker circulation — an east-west wind over the Pacific.

The scientists say their research does not rule out the possibility that other factors, such as Indian ocean temperatures, also play a role.

And changes in ocean temperatures brought about by human-induced climate change could also affect the intensity of the Indian monsoon, they add.
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 08/09/2006 23:01

I actually thought that it was common knowledge that the central equatorial pacific's temperature was the key to our rainfall and to monsoon development overall.

The BoM made comments along this line last year.
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 10/09/2006 11:19

I now believe this coming El nino event is going to be a very strong one. The far east epuatorial waters are warming quickly and the thermocline is 3 to 4 degs high from the centre of the pacific almost through to Sth America.

The trades have weakened further in the east, so it is starting to look bleak indeed.
Posted by: Pacman

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 10/09/2006 12:18

Quote:
Originally posted by runoff:
I now believe this coming El nino event is going to be a very strong one. The far east epuatorial waters are warming quickly and the thermocline is 3 to 4 degs high from the centre of the pacific almost through to Sth America.

The trades have weakened further in the east, so it is starting to look bleak indeed.
I am hoping the El nino will be a big one, so that it may get the ball rolling and hopefully swing us back into stronger La nina years.

The pacific has been a bit sluggish of recent years and needs a kick along.
Posted by: Tempest

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 11/09/2006 08:40

There are signs that waters are starting to cool off Peru, and waters warming off Qld. SOI 30 day now at -5.87, we could be in a transition period.
Posted by: Squid

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 11/09/2006 09:16

i hope so
Posted by: BD (Bucketing Down)

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 11/09/2006 11:23

Sorry to break your wishful dreams guys, but by the look of the latest TAO temps it is actually warming rapidly near South America...warmest I've seen it all year!
http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 11/09/2006 11:24

Agreed holts.
Posted by: Squid

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 11/09/2006 15:46

yeah it is looking like a weak el nino might be trying to develop
Posted by: Tempest

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 11/09/2006 20:30

Latest SST's,

Compared to few weeks ago, its definately warming off qld, and cooling off Peru,thats my view anyway.

SST\'s
Posted by: Mick10

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 11/09/2006 20:55

august anomoly map shows weak trends of warming over eastern and central pac with slightly below average around the north aust east coast.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/meansst.shtml
while looking at the Mean for august......
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/meansst.shtml
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 11/09/2006 22:47

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html A week ago the area off sth america was only 1.4 degs above average.
Posted by: Carl Smith

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 12/09/2006 01:42

I hope to get back to working on this topic later in the week when my computer situation is sorted out - I expect to take delivery of a 400 mHz Mac G4 with a brand new Pioneer DVD burner sometime today (Tuesday) to replace my ailing 300 mHz B&W G3.

Once I get things into a reasonable working order, I will get on with giving the G4 a workout examining solar cycles and the SOI using large spreadsheets, and hopefully come up with some interesting stuff to post here!
Posted by: BD (Bucketing Down)

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 12/09/2006 08:51

Interesting compasrison of 1994 and 2006 see quite cold patch match-ups west of Indonesian Coast:

Sept 1994
http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SeaSurfaceTemperature/1994/Sep.gif
and this year 2006
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/sst/sst.anom.gif
Posted by: BD (Bucketing Down)

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 12/09/2006 08:56

Don't know if its El-Nino related by SST patterns or burning of forests and smoke drifting west off coast blocking out the solar rays and thereby cooling water around there. There are bigger and better fires around there in a drier El-Nino type rainfall scenario...I have not looked to see if it drier than normal in Indonesia yet?
Posted by: BD (Bucketing Down)

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 12/09/2006 09:59

Found this tropical rainfall site with these 30 day Tropical Rainfall Maps
http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/Events/thirty_day.html
interestingly shows a rainfall below average patch running E-W over that cold water area west of Indonesia
Posted by: adon

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 12/09/2006 11:43

Well I suppose it would be similar to the effects of volcanic activity on SSTs but to a lesser extent. I suppose it all depends on how for reaching the effects are. I have been wondering why that patch was so cold for a while now. Thanks for clearing that up!
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 12/09/2006 17:07

The strongest high ive seen in the south pacific (predicted for tomorrow morning):



I suspect this high will help get the trades going again.
Posted by: adon

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 12/09/2006 23:11

Pity that high isn't a few degrees more N than it is progged to be. Don't like that little low there either. Hope to see some backing off of SST with that. Looks scary ATM eek
Posted by: Mick10

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 13/09/2006 14:10

hayden walker story on ch7 brisbane tonight, forecasting a "wet" end of the year by the sounds of things in Qld.
Posted by: seaweed

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 13/09/2006 15:45

Quote:
Originally posted by Mick10:
hayden walker story on ch7 brisbane tonight, forecasting a "wet" end of the year by the sounds of things in Qld.
What part of Queensland? I reckon I could get it right by saying we are going to have a wet christmas "somewhere" in Queensland. :rolleyes:
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 13/09/2006 16:05

We'll see.
Posted by: BD (Bucketing Down)

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 13/09/2006 16:43

I am forecasting a wet summer in QLD in some areas, near average to slightly above average in others, and below average in some other areas. QLD is a big state and what happens in Peninsula/ Cairns area does not neccessily happen in SE QLD, or in Gulf QLD, or in western inland QLD. It is a big area and often varies from region to region. He will need to be specific, could someone post the details of his forecast for up there, as I am always interested to see what others are going for,and we do not get the program down here...unless, of course he is forecasting wet for the whole of QLD! El Nino or not some areas of QLD almost always are wet in summer...And there are often big variations from region to region due to many factors, ie. the predominant airflow for summer, tropical lows, tropical cyclones, the monsoons, coastal showers, east coast lows, inland heat troughs, dry line troughs, upper level trough activity, etc...And, also one could forecast floods somewhere in QLD in summer on almost every year.
Posted by: Mick10

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 13/09/2006 17:25

Quote:
Originally posted by seaweed:
What part of Queensland?
saying drought breaking rains in the SE in Nov/Dec, and cyclones over the north during the wet.
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 13/09/2006 17:49

Forecast chart for tomorrow morning, watch that high grow eek

Posted by: BD (Bucketing Down)

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 13/09/2006 19:13

Watch it cark it on this one!
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavnsam.html
Posted by: BD (Bucketing Down)

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 13/09/2006 19:16

Click on 500hpa Bodendruk 8 panel if your not familiar with it!
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavnsam.html
Posted by: BD (Bucketing Down)

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 14/09/2006 07:22

EL NINO Declared 13th September 2006:

"EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP September 13, 2006
Synopsis: El Niño conditions have developed and are likely to continue into early 2007."
See: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/index.html
Posted by: Tempest

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 14/09/2006 07:49

Latest from the U.S.

US forecasters warn of Aussie drought
Thursday Sep 14 06:58 AEST
El Nino, an extreme warming of equatorial waters in the Pacific Ocean that causes drought in Australia has formed and will last into 2007, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said.

The last severe El Nino struck in 1997/98.

The weather phenomenon caused searing drought in Indonesia, Australia and the Philippines while causing rampant flooding in Ecuador and Chile as it wreaked havoc with the world's weather.

The new El Nino has already helped make the Atlantic hurricane season milder than expected, said a forecaster for the NOAA.




"The weak El Nino is helping to explain why the hurricane season is less than we expected. El Ninos tend to suppress hurricane activity in the Atlantic," said Gerry Bell, a hurricane forecaster for NOAA.

The NOAA's Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) said the El Nino probably will spur warmer than average temperatures this winter over western and central Canada and the western and northern United States.

It said El Nino also will cause wetter than average conditions in the US Gulf Coast and Florida, and spark dry conditions in the Ohio valley, the Pacific North-West and most US islands in the tropical Pacific.

In Asia and South America, the last severe El Nino killed hundreds of people and caused billions of dollars in damage as crops shrivelled across the Asia-Pacific basin.

This El Nino has caused drier-than-average conditions across Indonesia, Malaysia and most of the Philippines.

Indonesia is the most populous Muslim country with over 200 million people, while the Philippines have nearly 90 million. Both are major importers of US grains.

The CPC web site said surface temperatures were substantially warmer than normal by early September in the Pacific. Scientists detect formation of El Ninos by monitoring sea surface temperatures with a system of buoys.

"Currently, weak El Nino conditions exist, but there is a potential for this event to strengthen into a moderate event by winter," Vernon Kousky, the chief El Nino expert at NOAA's Climate Prediction Centre, said in a statement.

"The latest ... predictions indicate El Nino conditions for the remainder of 2006 and into the northern hemisphere spring (of) 2007," the CPC web site explained.

El Nino, which means "little boy" in Spanish, hits once every three years or so. Anchovy fishermen in South America noticed the phenomenon in the 19th century and named it for the Christ child since it appeared around Christmas, and it normally peaks late in the year.

One immediate impact of the El Nino is during the current Atlantic hurricane season, which follows on the heels of the record 28 storms and 15 hurricanes which struck in 2005.

Last year's howlers included monsters like Hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma. But this El Nino apparently has helped hinder storm formation in 2006. So far, there has only been seven tropical storms and two hurricanes halfway through the hurricane season, which begins June 1 and ends Nov. 30.

Scientists said El Ninos disrupt storm formation because it allows wind shear to rip apart thunderstorms in the centre of the hurricanes, reducing power and intensity as a result.
Posted by: Mick10

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 14/09/2006 08:39

Quote:
Originally posted by Tempest:
Latest from the U.S.

US forecasters warn of Aussie drought
Thursday Sep 14 06:58 AEST
El Nino, an extreme warming of equatorial waters in the Pacific Ocean that causes drought in Australia has formed and will last into 2007, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said.
someone want to tell them that we are in back to back droughts anyway mad
Posted by: Raindammit

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 14/09/2006 08:43

Not good news. But not the end of the world either! All our dams are at capacity in the north because of the good winter rains so atleast thats something. El-Nino does not necessarily mean we will get a bad wet season. Its just that the chances of it happening are much higher. *tries in vain to cheer everyone up*
Posted by: Squid

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 14/09/2006 12:03

it is expected to be a weak el nino but still one to watch
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 14/09/2006 12:31

The claims of a weak el nino are still premature. All of the experts are relying on data that doesn't include the major shift toward warmer conditions in August. The area for us to keep an eye on is that warm pool nth of New Caledonia. That is the area that impacts on our rainfall heaviest.
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 14/09/2006 12:31

Anyway none of it matters. Just ask Hayden wink
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 14/09/2006 12:44

From the ABC News website:

Last Update: Thursday, September 14, 2006. 11:47am (AEST)
Weather bureau predicts El Nino-type pattern
The Bureau of Meteorology says warm currents in the Pacific Ocean are set to make Australia's climate drier.

The US Government's Climate Prediction Centre says the high ocean temperatures amount to an El Nino, the type of weather system which has previously caused devastating floods in America and severe drought in Asia and Australia.

Dr David Jones from the weather bureau's National Climate Centre says it does not yet classify as an El Nino by the centre's criteria, but it will still lead to a bad bushfire season and force more water restrictions.

"It may actually fall a little bit short and that's the kind of thing we really won't be able to tell for another few months," he said.

"But in terms of what it means for Australia, it doesn't really make much difference.

"The ocean and atmosphere don't distinguish from what we call an El Nino and what we might call a near miss - either way it's pushing Australia towards the dry side of things."

An environmental science expert also says rainfall in Australia will be even more scarce once the effects of the latest El Nino system take hold.

Associate Professor Stewart Franks from the University of Newcastle says the impact will be felt in Australia shortly.

"It's typically from October through to March," he said.

"It tends to peak around December, January - there's probably six months there where we can expect sadly more deficit rainfalls."
Posted by: KevD

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 14/09/2006 16:46

The good news from all this is that the El Nino hasn't started today - it has actually been here for months...which means the clock is already well on the way to it being over...There isn't 12 months of it to come - probably another 6 months at most....Worrying time for the fire season though especially with all the recent rains bringing big growth along the E coast.
Posted by: BD (Bucketing Down)

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 14/09/2006 17:31

I agree with that Kevin! By the time the BOM Australia reach there 4 months to go of temps at right level, it will be all but nearly over by the look!
Posted by: adon

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 14/09/2006 23:42

So does that mean that this event will not be a very strong event? Could it be over by the new year? By the looks of TAO tonight there is a good burst of trades in the central Pacific ATM. smile Wish the buoys near Sth America were working. frown They have not been working fo ages now!
Posted by: AussieMark79

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 15/09/2006 00:43

remember the 2002/03 event was a moderate one but was among the more severe events




2002/03: This weak to moderate El Niño event had a very strong impact in Australia. The major 2002-03 drought had rainfall deficiencies over the period March 2002 to January 2003 that ranked in severity and areal extent with the extreme droughts of 1902 and 1982-83. Practically all parts of the country were affected, and in southern areas this exacerbated the effects of several preceding years of dry conditions. The extreme dryness coincided with exceptionally warm conditions: maximum temperatures averaged Australia established new records in each of the seasons autumn, winter and spring by a wide margin for the post-1950 era. Severe bushfires in eastern NSW, Canberra, and the mountains of southeast NSW and eastern Victoria, and widespread water shortages, were some of the main effects. Widespread above to very much above average falls occurred in February 2003 raising hopes of a consistent period of wet weather to erase the effects of severe drought. However, this was not to be. Totals for the remainder of 2003 were insufficient in many areas to overcome existing rainfall deficiencies - especially in parts of Queensland and southeast Victoria where 2003 was another rather dry year.

SOI
2002
Jan: 2.7
Feb: 7.7
Mar: -5.2
Apr: -3.8
May: -14.5
Jun: -6.3
Jul: -7.6
Aug: -14.6
Sep: -7.6
Oct: -7.4
Nov: -6.0
Dec: -10.6

2003
Jan: -2.0
Feb: -7.4
Mar: -6.8
Apr: -5.5
May: -7.4
Jun: -12.0
Jul: 2.9
Posted by: Squid

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 15/09/2006 09:15

good point kevin looking nback you can see that el nino has been around for a while now, personaly i dont think that he will get much stronger infact he may be peaking, well heres hoping anyways.
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 15/09/2006 11:23

lets not forget that we had a weak la nina last summer and even IT didnt do us any good. I also note that in 2000 we were in a moderate la nina, but here in Sydney we had a very dry september and a rather dry october back then. There are other factors contributing to our climate changing year to year.

Like adon im keeping an eye on that burst of trades in the central pacific atm, sure looks healthy and it wont have problems combating against the westerlies, lets just hope no more typhoons form up that way which easily blast those WWBs across. But at the moment those westerlies seem to be restricted, or more rather kept up north (above 5 degrees N) by the easterlies. The high in south pacific seems to be lingering which will hopefully hold for a bit longer. Looking at the sub surface temps, this one doesnt seem deadly to me laugh
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 15/09/2006 13:06

I'm not that optimistic. There is still a very broad area of very warm water spread across the thermocline.
I'd like to believe it's all over but it doesn't look that way to me. Of even more concern is the fact that (as already mentioned above) the weak lanina didn't deliver. It seems mother nature is looking for any excuse to dry us out at the moment.
Posted by: AussieMark79

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 15/09/2006 14:12

the la Nina in 2005/06 technically wasn't a La Nina it was on the verge of one but never happened

on February 8 BOM said
Quote:
Pacific climate patterns evolved during Januaryand early February to the point where, should the current conditions persist forabout another three months, it will be an official La Niña event. Subsurfacewaters in the eastern equatorial Pacific are particularly cool, but surfacetemperatures are only bordering on La Niña thresholds. In addition, the SouthernOscillation Index is above +10, the Trade Winds have been enhanced in thecentral to western Pacific and cloudiness remains substantially suppressed inthe central Pacific. All these are consistent with a La Niña.
on February 22 BOM wrote
Quote:
After a fairly rapid evolution of incipient La Niña conditions byearly February, the past two weeks has seen some key indicators ease tolevels more typical of neutral conditions. Specifically, central toeastern Pacific surface temperatures have risen abruptly, the SOIhas fallen back to near zero and the Trade Winds have decreasedto average intensity in the western to central Pacific. However, giventhe large mass of cooler than average water that remains in the subsurfaceof the eastern Pacific, it may be premature to assume this trend away from La Niña conditions will continue.

Adding to the uncertainty is the fact that we're nearing the ENSO predictionbarrier of March to June, the time when predictability of the climatesystem is at its lowest, and the time when ENSO events usually decayor begin to form. Neverthelss, Australian and international computer modelsstrongly suggest neutral conditions will be present by the middle of theyear due to a steady warming of the central Pacific between now and thesouthern winter.

It is also unknown in the historical record for a La Niña eventof any significance (either in terms of duration or intensity), toevolve during the southern summer. Accordingly, it shouldn't be assumedthat typical Australian La Niña impacts (widespread above averagerainfall, some flooding, more tropical cyclones) will occur.
Posted by: Raindammit

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 15/09/2006 16:01

The TSR (Tropical Storm Risk) from the Benfield Hazard Research Centre in the UK anticipates the 2006/7 Australian season will see activity 25% below normal. This update is from 7 September:

'The TSR (Tropical Storm Risk) early September forecast update for Australian-region tropical cyclone activity in 2006/7 anticipates activity ~25% below average. The forecast spans the Australian season from the 1st November 2006 to the 30th April 2007 and is based on data available through the end of August 2006. Our main predictor is the forecast anomaly in October-November Niño 4 sea surface temperatures(SST) which we anticipate will be above-average by 0.64±0.24oC. Since SSTs in this region are linked to vertical wind shear over the Australian region during Austral summer, an above-average Niño 4 SST indicates above-average wind shear and below-average tropical storm activity. Thus we expect Australian basin cyclone activity and landfalling numbers to be below-average in 2006/7. Our forecast reduction since last month reflects a 0.32oC rise on our forecast Oct-Nov Niño 4 SST.'

and as for the probabilities of 'Tropical Storms' forming in the Australian region:

'There is only a 5% probability that Australian-region tropical storm numbers in 2006/7 will be above average (defined as more than 12 tropical storms), a 47% likelihood they will be near normal (defined as between 9 and 12 tropical storms) and a 48% chance they will be below normal (defined as less than 9 tropical storms). The 1975/6-2005/6 climatology probabilities for each category are 29% (above-normal), 36% (near-normal) and 35% (below-normal).'

As for these 'storms' actually striking the coast:

'There is only a 12% probability that Australian tropical storm strike numbers in 2006/7 will be above average (defined as more than 5 landfalling tropical storms), a 52% likelihood they will be near normal (defined as 4 or 5 landfalling tropical storms) and a 36% chance they will be below normal (defined as less than 4 landfalling tropical storms). The 1975/6-2005/6 climatology probabilities for each category are 32% (above-normal), 42% (near-normal) and 26% (below-normal).'

'The key factor behind our forecast for Australian-region tropical storm activity in 2006/7 being ~25% below average is the anticipated supressing effect of early austral summer SSTs in the Niño 4 region.
Warmer than normal SSTs in this region lead to increased atmospheric vertical wind shear over the Australian region during Austral summer; a condition favouring reduced tropical storm activity. Our current forecast SST anomaly (1975-2005 climatology) for October-November 2006 Niño 4 SST is 0.64±0.24oC (up from last month’s value of 0.32±0.32oC). The forecast skill for this predictor at this lead is 88% (assessed using cross-validated hindcasts over the period 1975-2005).'

The September forecast update can be viewed here. Quite an interesting website that should be book marked!!

:cheers:
Posted by: Squid

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 16/09/2006 09:47

another below normal season but in these seasons dont you find that is when we get the real big ones
Posted by: adon

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 18/09/2006 23:35

Well for an Elnino the SOI is sure in a neutral -4.65 state. Could the ENSO gods have missed the boat! Or could this be just a really shy one?
Posted by: Tempest

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 19/09/2006 09:01

Runoff, you sounded like you had so much conficence when you started this thread, now its doom and gloom.

I can understand your current thinking, however I still believe that we are in a weak/mild el-nino, la nina is coming. Hopefully this thread will be hanging around for a long time, i.e. long term la nina.
Posted by: BD (Bucketing Down)

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 19/09/2006 10:16

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/sst/sst.anom.gif
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.9.16.2006.gif
looking pretty El-Nino like on these!
Posted by: adon

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 19/09/2006 11:27

Well I am looking at the TAO every day and the trades in the central Pacific have been average or better for a week now I wis that the buoys in the east were showing wind data but with that and the SOI coming up again I am still thinking that the coner might have been turned and by late summer we may well be on the way to wet. Although today's weather dents that a bit.
Posted by: BD (Bucketing Down)

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 19/09/2006 16:09

I'm only saying Spring 2006 is very very likely to be further affected by the El-Nino Adon, There is now the strongest warm area all season pushing eastwards from South America on nthe surface, undersea temps are rising quickly. The current lull in the SOI is likely to be reversed soon as the warm area moves further west, and at the same time the trades will likely weaken strongly also.
Summer and onwards is another ball game entirely! El-Nino plays a lot less of a role in Summer in many areas and next year, during 2007, I would look for a El-Nino breakdown occurring imo anyway.
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 19/09/2006 20:17

I agree Holts. Sorry if I sound like doom and gloom Tempest , however I must be looking at different info to some of you. My data shows strengthening of the warm pool off Sth America and strong warming on the thermocline.

Whilst the trades look to have strengthened across the pacific and the soi has risen , I feel this is temporary in response to the positioning of the mjo and an area of low pressure near Darwin.

I am desperate to see a good long wet season, just like the rest of us up here, but I don't see any respite on the horizon.
Posted by: Tempest

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 20/09/2006 08:50

Eventhough we may be in an el-nino cyce, Mackay has received above ave rain for the months of April through to Sept. Ony half way through Sept and we have had over 35mm at home, thats double the sept ave.
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 20/09/2006 10:18

We've had coastal showers also, however I reckon if the waters off our coast were warm (instaed of cold) those showers would have been a lot more frequent and a lot heavier.
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 21/09/2006 23:14

Surface has cooled slightly off Sth America, as has sub-surface in that region . SOI is rising. Seems the pacific is confused about which way to go at the moment.
Posted by: adon

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 21/09/2006 23:46

Yeah by the looks of the TAO chart here are pretty good trades over most of the Pacific ATM There are a couple of buoys near Sth America working and they are showing stronger than average trades ATM so fingers crossed they will keep going for a while! laugh
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 22/09/2006 11:03

Yeah runoff, the temps have cooled down and the thermocline is slowly climbing upwards in the subsurface in the east. Temps there have cooled from 2-2.3c above avg across a wide area leading to the surface to about 1.2-1.6c now. good to see those trades picking up a bit, just dont like the look of the western pacific still showing some arrows pointing east. But like i said a few weeks ago, theres something out there preventing el nino's full development.
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 22/09/2006 11:50

I reckon it might be the persistance of these large highs Bokkey. Being so far south this year they must be taking cool air north. Let's hope they keep blowing. Now that the sun in the southern hemisphere they might start breaking down.
Posted by: adon

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 22/09/2006 13:11

I see the last few MSLP charts have started to show a heat low making an appearence in WA. Hope this can change a bit. I don't reckn these highs will go anywhere for a while yet. Just hope that the highs out on the central Pacific and near the Sth American coast.
Posted by: adon

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 23/09/2006 22:41

Well the SSTs looked to have backed off again for now at least. That little spot of blue(Sth American)has hung in there for a while now and looks the be getting a big bigger now. The map looks bad but hopefully it will continue to ease off.

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html
Posted by: BD (Bucketing Down)

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 26/09/2006 08:00

Yer Adon looks like a temporary easing back. Never know sometimes these better oscillations cause one or teo decent rains. Very warm still under surface layers seem to be moving up however in the longer term, after October period for a while.
http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/ocean/results/ocean_anals/SEQ_Equator/2006/Sep.gif
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 26/09/2006 11:43

http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200609/s1748741.htm Interesting article
Posted by: Tempest

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 26/09/2006 17:40

Nothing new in that article, we all know what we are doing to our planet, we need to change our ways.
Posted by: Keith

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 26/09/2006 20:11

We do, but not on the basis of sweeping statements such as Mr Hansen's, let alone when they are published in the media.
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 27/09/2006 00:05

I don't have an opinion either way. I only posted it for viewing if interested.
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 27/09/2006 01:45

I for one disagree that global warming would increase el nino events. If this was the case anyway, a strong el nino would most likely be followed by a strong la nina, and this was seen with the 97/98 el nino which caused a rapid swing between the two and the la nina lasted a lot longer than the "super elnino" itself. B) Increase in temperatures across the pacific would increase moisture and thus cloud cover, counteracting the warming of waters. The narrow corridor in which the hottest water is situated would spread both north and south of the equator providing stronger trade winds, once again counteracting warming of the water. I may be wrong on this but its mostly just common sense.
Posted by: Keith

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 27/09/2006 07:24

Quote:
Originally posted by runoff:
I don't have an opinion either way. I only posted it for viewing if interested.
Runoff, you don't need to justify your post, it's good that you pointed people to the article. Obviously people are going to comment, whatever their views.
Posted by: BD (Bucketing Down)

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 27/09/2006 12:21

I posted this on the Global Warming and sea level thread but it well covers this thread also and you may be interested if you have the time to read a bit.
At last some decent science book on global warming
I am going to get a copy myself pre-publication. It covers most of the issues in a decent way, warts and all, from a brief look. And it explores well both sides of the pre-1900 temp debate, and my viewpoint that I have stood on all along in a sensible common sense way!
This is what they say about the older data, which I have said all along and it is the point I have been trying to make amid much opposition all the time...

"Historical observations & documents about past temps provide valuable SEASONALLY SPECIFIC INFORMATION ABOUT PAST TEMPERATURES & OTHER FEATURES OF CLIMATE, BUT PRIOR TO ABOUT AD1700 (18TH CENTURY)THE EVIDENCE THINS OUT AND OFTEN BECOMES DISCONTINOUS. " (my CAPITALS)

In contrast, sensationalist, Hansen comes out with "global temperature in near a MILLION YEARS HIGH", yesterday!!!

"Europe and east Asia are 2 regions of the world where temperature series 200 years long have been succesfully developed from documentary evidence in a repeatable and consistent way, The evidence shows thatboth regions experienced overall MEDEIVAL WARMING and the LITTLE ICE AGE, BUT BECAUSE OF THE PAUCITY and SOMETIMES POOR DATA QUALITY, IT IS DIFFICULT TO KNOW FROM THESE SOURCES ALONE IF THE MEDIEVAL PERIOD WAS WARM OR WARMER THAN THE LATE 20TH AND EARLY 21ST CENTURY"

(PAGE 37, "SURFACE TEMPERATURE RECONSTRUCTIONS OF THE LAST 2000YEARS (2006) In Press
BOARD OF ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE (BASC))

I applaud them, it is the exact points that I have been trying to make all along to you David. Maybe you have not read what I was really trying to say? Some plain questioning commensence to the "saying that we know exactly to the 0.1 or even 1.0 degree value of what the global temperatures were back in time". And we have scientist saying that it is the warmest since a million years!!!

Ok, David, you will find other stuff to throw back at me from the book, I'm sure, but you will have to agree that it is the most recent and best book I have seen on the global warming topic. It appears better balenced in its approach, covers most avenues, and will teach me and you and others a lot of good stuff. It goes well into detail of the faults and good points of all the various past analysis types.
Cheers, Ian
http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11676.html
is the link. I think you will have to agree that it, even from my first even brief read is a decent book on the topic. and well worth a read. We can all learn some more together from it. One can read it free on the site, but I am going to get a pre-copy myself.
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 27/09/2006 17:38

Two very large and rather strong highs are now dominating the south pacific. The trades are also stronger than avg across 3/4 of the eastern side of the pacific. A WWB which is evident over the western quarter is getting pushed up north of the equator by the strength of the easterlies. This is the first time ive seen that happen during the expected development of an el nino which is a good sign. If this pattern can hold for at least 3-4 weeks we'll be back to neutral and hopefully we can head for the situation mentioned in this topic title smile
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 28/09/2006 00:37

I like your thinking Bokkey, and yes the trades are above average. Except in the western pacific where they are blowing the wrong way. confused
Posted by: BD (Bucketing Down)

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 30/09/2006 14:19

Bit of warming off NW Coast WA for a change...looking to get a bit better slowly maybe, hopefully...unless it is still on the old roller-coaster ride it has been all year and coolness returns again next week?
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 01/10/2006 10:03

Another solid westerly wind burst is forming near the Solomons. More warm water heading east soon. There is definitely some hinderance near the Sth American coast. The sub-surface warm pool is being held back in that region.
Posted by: BD (Bucketing Down)

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 01/10/2006 18:26

ALERT!
TAO moorings in the eastern Pacific (95°W and 110°W) have been heavily vandalized since June 2006. These moorings are scheduled for replacement in November 2006. Recent graphical displays of TAO / TRITON data have been adjusted to account for data void regions east of 125°W.

"Nice" people mucking up the world's weather calculations in an El-Nino year!!!! Probably stealing them for scrap metal, as copper prioces are very high.
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 01/10/2006 22:15

Hope they get killed doing it. No wonder the arrows have slowly disappeared
Posted by: adon

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 01/10/2006 22:21

That WWB is HUGE eek frown Been a few days since I have been online so the change has been very noticable. Not looking good. frown
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 03/10/2006 15:08

Most models are now forecasting El nino conditions to develop and persist into Autumn next year.
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 03/10/2006 15:42

There has been some very interesting development in the NW Pacific during the past few days. A very strong area of convergence developed along the ITCZ in a line just north of the equator [135-160W]. This is where the strong WWB is coming from. But what happened since is the strong area of convergence and a large elongated area of low pressure has moved up off Taiwan with the air rushing into that area from the western pacific hence enhancing trades across most of the equator. In that sense the australian monsoon could also hit hard as the winds from China start flying southwards:

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/nmoc/latest_fwo_loop.pl?IDCODE=IDYTX003.10M&number=4

we may be well over our heads with this scenario as we have strong winds emerging from both directions, but at the moment theres no sign of a Kelvin wave and the eastern sub-surface SSTs are cooling down at the same time. I dont think this el nino has much oomph left in itself.
Posted by: sugar mill tour guide

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 03/10/2006 16:46

whats going on pleases explain the scenior better r we in for w wet season or not ?
Posted by: seaweed

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 03/10/2006 17:14

That ties in Bokkey with what we are seeing atm. There is a nice broad area of lower than normal pressure just above Australia, (you can see the cloud buildup around the Soloman's and Bouganville Island. This in turn is giving us much stronger winds than is usual at this time of year. We would be watching that cloud buildup very closely if it was December. Just maybe we are seeing the first signs of a coming la nina. *fingers crossed*
Posted by: Raindammit

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 04/10/2006 10:38

Bleak news from the ABC News website:

Chances of avoiding El Nino nil, climate centre says

The National Climate Centre (NCC) has confirmed the chances of Australia avoiding the grip of an El Nino weather pattern this spring are virtually nil.

The prospect of hotter and drier conditions, particularly in south-eastern Australia, is dire news for farmers.

Near record temperatures have gripped much of Australia during September, and the south-east corner has recorded the most significant changes.

But at this stage climatologists say this El Nino is not looking as bad as the last one four years ago.

The NCC says all the signs of an El Nino are here - and Australians should brace for hot conditions over the summer months.

NCC spokesman Grant Beard says there is little chance of the current El Nino pattern dissipating.

"If the development doesn't continue, if there's a sudden turnaround in patterns across the Pacific, well then we would probably fall short of declaring this or recognising this - in hindsight - as an event," he said.

"But even if that did occur, the fact that we have high temperatures over the Pacific and low values of the SOI [Southern Oscillation Index], that means that the Australian climate, particularly the east of the country, is bias towards being warmer and drier than average for the rest of this year."

Mr Beard says it is still too early to give any accurate assessment of weather patterns over the summer months.

But he says it is likely that conditions in the nation's south-east corner will be abnormally hot until the end of the year.

"Across Victoria we are looking at chances in excess of 80 per cent for exceeding the long-term average for that three-month period," he said.

"But El Nino events tend to breakdown, in terms of the climate patterns across Australia, sometime during summer.

"Although temperatures might remain above average, the rainfall patterns are less predictable."

'Serious implications'

Australia's last El Nino event was in 2002, with that year bringing unusually hot and dry conditions across most of the country.

He says that should another El Nino event materialise, it will have serious implications for Australia's environment.

"We had a very severe drought that went from early 2002 into autumn 2003, but we haven't really seen a strong break since that time," he said.

"The rainfall has returned to somewhere close to average, but we haven't had a wide-spread above average rainfall year at all since that previous event."

"So with another event, such as the one we look like we're in at the moment developing this year, it's obviously going to have a fairly severe impact because, as we see in the news all the time, the water supplies are dwindling, or very low, and this is another thing to take into account."

But Mr Beard says the current El Nino weather pattern is not having as strong an impact as that of 2002.

"Obviously some areas are experiencing it very badly, mainly the south-east corner of the country and probably the south-west corner as well," he said.

"But for say, large parts of Queensland and northern New South Wales, it hasn't been anywhere as near as severe as what occurred in 2002."

He says the current weather patterns could be linked to global climate change.

"We're concerned with long-term trends over large areas," he said.

"So we're looking at the kinds of changes in rainfall or temperature - say over Australia - over half a century to a century.

"That's the kind of thing we're doing with climate change."
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 04/10/2006 11:58

The sub-surface cold pool has spread further east, but at this late stage I feel it will have little bearing. A stinking hot summer is looking very likely. There is still a likelyhood of some excellent thunderstorms however. El nino years do tend to put on the best light shows. Especially around the time the pattern breaks down.
Posted by: Mick10

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 04/10/2006 18:51

problem in many parts of the SE is that there has been no decent rainfall between these el nino events, very sad situation down here for farmers and the environment. hopefully this one will not be so strong as they hope. still weird that this is all happening at this time of year, usually its around autumn??

on another note, 29.4C here in melbourne today. well above average of course. first time a fire ban has been issued this early in the year. the suburban parks and gardens are brown already due to 6months of below average rainfall.
a very, very dangerous fire season on the cards, giant highs, weak/dry fronts and windy conditions.
Posted by: BD (Bucketing Down)

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 04/10/2006 19:01

You should be so lucky 35.4C Adelaide, 37.5C Edinburgh north Adelaide suburb, and 37.2 Parafield NE Adelaide suburb today. Hottest 4th Oct on record.
Posted by: Wild Stormy Weather

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 05/10/2006 08:28

Question for you guys:

1. Do you think that the El Nino will break down and when?

2. Do you believe that the future weather patterns will have anything to do with the forth coming solar flare activity as explained by Hayden Walker in 2007?

3. What is instore for us in 2007, el nino or la nina?

Thanks Brian
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 05/10/2006 14:49

That's a big ask Brian. So many variables affect the weather. El nino is unlikely in the 2007/2008 season due to the periodicy of the events. We are still a chance for flooding rains this summer. El nino does not always mean dry summers. Unfortunately it does increase the chances though.
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 05/10/2006 17:04

At the moment it looks like the current El nino pattern is breaking down, and rapidly too. Thanx to the healthy burst of easterlies across much of the pacific there are now patches, albeit small, of cooler than avg waters across the central pacific. While beneath the surface SSTs are now 2-3c warmer compared to 4-5c about 2 weeks ago.

Another important thing to note is the WWB which is still evident in the western pacific is very unorganised and you can now see a swing in wind direction there towards all directions. At this time last year a WWB was evident in the same area but was more organised than it is now.

Most of the computer models forecasting the el nino threshold conditions are i think, basing that due to the presence of a kelvin wave, in which there is no organised ones evident at this time.

As for 2007, i wouldnt have a clue what will happen :p , its just too far out to score for now.
Posted by: Wild Stormy Weather

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 05/10/2006 19:55

Thanks guys i just thought i would try and cause some debate about what is happening with our weather.
This provides information for us all to learn from you all who are more educated in this area.
Posted by: bogong

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 06/10/2006 10:14

From today's US Climate Prediction Centre ENSO Diagnostic Discussion:

Quote:
The latest NCEP coupled forecast system (CFS) predictions indicate El Niño conditions for the remainder of 2006 and into the NH spring (SH fall) 2007 (Fig. 4). More than two-thirds of the other statistical and coupled model predictions also indicate El Niño conditions during the same period (Fig. 5).


Most of the models I have seen suggest that Sea Surface Temps off South America will peak in around Jan-Feb 07. At least this brings the promise of the strong likelihood of a decent autumn break for a change for south-eastern Aust.
Posted by: bogong

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 06/10/2006 10:40

Further to the CPC link above, I can HIGHLY RECOMMEND the link to the weekly discussion at the top of the page.

It has easy to follow diagrams and commentary that shows what is happening with the various indicators of the El Nino event including sub-surface water temps, outgoing LR radiation, winds etc as well as historical information on past events.

You can also download it here .
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 08/10/2006 11:41

The cold water on the thermocline has spread rapidly east in the past two days.
Posted by: adon

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 09/10/2006 13:37

Quote:
Originally posted by Bokkey:

Another important thing to note is the WWB which is still evident in the western pacific is very unorganised and you can now see a swing in wind direction there towards all directions. At this time last year a WWB was evident in the same area but was more organised than it is now.
Reckon that sucker is on the move now. frown looks organised now and also looks to be spreading.
Posted by: adon

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 10/10/2006 22:29

Looks like the SOI is on the dive again frown -10 now.
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 10/10/2006 23:06

Not surprising mate. Have a look at the cold water around Nth East Australia. I am amazed we are getting showers at the moment.
Posted by: adon

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 11/10/2006 15:38

Just watching CNN, they were showing a tropical storm up near Guam heading pretty quickly for Taiwan. Reckon that may exlpain the WWB being more organised in the last few days. The storm would be a typhoon by now. Moveing WNW at 30km/h so it is crackin along. Hope that SST go back to the way they were last week now.
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 12/10/2006 17:37

Soi is plummeting yet again.
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 12/10/2006 17:45

very strong WWB hurling across the western pacific, this will without a doubt now be a full blown el-nino and theres nothing to stop a horrific season ahead.
Posted by: adon

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 12/10/2006 23:05

WWB is losing strength now but has weakened trades right across the Pacific. The effects showed up straight away with a very warm patch developing near Sth America. frown This huge high over us ATM looks like it will have good trades S of the Equator shoudl help the SSTs off the Qld coast but geez this could get very bad.
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 13/10/2006 23:05

BoM are forecasting a later start to the cyclone season due to El nino.
Posted by: adon

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 14/10/2006 10:42

Just been looking at a blobal MSLP chart for +48hrs. Looks like at least in the S hem the highs are doing the right thing. Hopefully trades come back. Seems as thought the N hem is weird ATM. Maybe that's where it's going bad. confused
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 14/10/2006 11:27

Nah theres no chance. theres a long trough/low aligned right above the equator extending from 170W all the way to 120E and its forecast to stay there for the forseeable future. This will ensure the westerlies fly across the pacific right to the east unfortunately. were screwed for this season either way..
Posted by: adon

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 14/10/2006 11:38

Oh well hope this will finally bring it to a head and then maybe it will fianlly go away enitrely and give us all a NORMAL year. frown
Posted by: P.H Mike

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 15/10/2006 13:09

Does anyone have any stats in regards to El Nino and amount of cyclones in the north west WA
Posted by: Blue Skies

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 15/10/2006 20:24

Not on hand. But the general trend is to have less than average in number but those that do are usually more severe with a good chance of at least one of them being a cat 4 or 5.
Posted by: E-J

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 16/10/2006 09:08

Can somebody answer a question for me. I was under the impression that an El Nino weather pattern comprised of a warmer pool of ocean near the south western americas and cooler pooling of waters oover the northern parts of Australia. Waters are definitely cooler over our parts than last year, but if you look at the Pacific as "two halves" the Eastern pacific still contains more latent heat. I am tipping a weak La Nina and I am quite amused that the bureau have made early predictions of an El Nino given the current circumstances. Please correct me if I am wrong!!!!
Posted by: E-J

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 16/10/2006 13:19

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.current.small.gif refers to average temps and seems to be a little different to this http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/meansst.shtml The latter indicates the warmer waters are in the western pacific. As I said earlier please correct me if I am wrong guys!!!
Posted by: BD (Bucketing Down)

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 16/10/2006 13:33

The first chart is the differences from the average temps in all areas and is the one to look at... typical El-Nino looking, SOI is Minus 12, El-Nino is here atm, and will be here for at least until early 2007.
I would say, if I may be so bold, EJ, that you best go back to the drawing board and read up a bit more before making any more El Nino or La Nina predictions. Though good to see you are looking and having a go. Good read on it all at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/lam/climate/levelthree/analclim/elnino.htm
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 16/10/2006 16:33

Definitely an El nino in full swing E-J. COld water around Australia and warm water off South America is an EL nino unfortunately.
Posted by: sugar mill tour guide

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 16/10/2006 16:36

oh dear if we havent had any worser wet season. Well looks like Proserpine dam will be lower again and with these high spring temptures nothing surprises me
Posted by: P.K.

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 16/10/2006 23:06

I make the three month weekly Nino 3.4 anomaly average +0.59C as of 15/10 using the BoM's values. Another five weeks of the present levels of +0.95C would be enough to reach the threshold of +0.8C for El Nino to be declared. I've plotted it on a graph here .

In reference to the question a few posts above you can see the number of TCs vs ENSO phase here .
Posted by: Tempest

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 17/10/2006 08:04

Still dont think its a fully cranked up el-nino, its a weak one, but still enough to cause Aust. problems. There are still small areas of cold water off Peru.

The area of very cold water off Indonesia has slightly warmed up as well.

I read somewhere in this thread that something is stopping this el-nino to further strengthen!!!
Posted by: P.H Mike

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 17/10/2006 18:46

Thanks PJ.........doesnt look much different in the N/W from el nino to la nina
Posted by: Blue Skies

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 17/10/2006 19:25

It does, actually, not in numbers but in the la nina years it shows they tend to come more down the west coast whereas in the el nino years they cross the NW coast more often.
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 17/10/2006 19:26

Quote:
I read somewhere in this thread that something is stopping this el-nino to further strengthen!!!
Yeah, i made that remark a couple of times as it seemed to me that the elnino had trouble forming between about july to september but regardless of that it looks like the elnino pattern is well under way and should stay with us well into next year. But this doesnt automatically mean bad season for us, it just means that there is a higher chance of hotter temps and a drier climate. we'll wait and see how we go nevertheless..
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 17/10/2006 20:03

I don't think this event has peaked yet. Looking at the surface maps over the last 2 weeks, there is a high probability of a moderate event developing in the shorter term. The last time August was as dry as this year was in 1982, which culminated in Ash Wednesday early in 1983.
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 19/10/2006 18:38

Water temps are nearing 3 degs above normal on the equatorial eastern pacific. This event may become more than a weak one.
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 19/10/2006 18:43

SOI on -12.5 and still plummeting and the pacific heating up rapidly now, id call it a moderate elnino now. Let it strengthen further, this will give a better chance of a la nina just as strong to follow by the sea-saw effect.
Posted by: Tempest

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 20/10/2006 11:42

As we move closer to summer the surface pressures over Darwin should reduce while Tahiti should increase, hopefully increasing the SOI figures. Yesterday Darwin was 1013, Tahiti 1016.
Posted by: KevD

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 20/10/2006 12:17

Quote:
Originally posted by Tempest:
As we move closer to summer the surface pressures over Darwin should reduce while Tahiti should increase, hopefully increasing the SOI figures. Yesterday Darwin was 1013, Tahiti 1016.
I believe that the SOI calculation takes into account the seasonal variations in pressure so the changes you would normally see would not impact on the SOI (which calculates on departures from the norm)

Kev
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 21/10/2006 00:21

You're right Kevin. Further to that you don't get as much pressure drop over Darwin in an El nino yeer.
Posted by: adon

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 22/10/2006 17:45

Wow what a difference a week can be! I haven't looked at the SSTs for a week and the Pacific has really gone bad. frown Only good point to all of this is that the NW coast has warmed a little and what Bokkey said about having a big bad elnino in hope f a wet year coming out of the ashes. We are stuffed now so rain will not help(apart from getting soem rain water for the house). Just hope that this will finnaly come to a head and return to normal.
Posted by: storm freak

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 22/10/2006 19:07

hi im new to this site and just wondering once the elnino peaks will it start to come back to normal
Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 22/10/2006 21:56

The length of an el nino event varies, but if it is really a full-blown el nino it would last at least a few months. Typically, it develops around the middle of the year (our winter months), and lasts through the spring and summer until about March/April. It is sometimes followed by the opposite effect, known as La Nina which can result in heavy rains and flooding.
Posted by: adon

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 22/10/2006 22:16

Reckon it is well underway! frown All we can hope for is that this bugger finally breaks the pattern and gives the country a break.
Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 22/10/2006 22:54

Well, it seems that a strong el nino event is often followed by a strong la nina. So, hopefully the big break will happen around March/April 2007!
Posted by: Sean M

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 22/10/2006 23:41

remember guys that after this we will probably have a la-nina as it swings back to normal. The bad part is to have a stong La-nina, we will probably need a strong el-nino
Posted by: adon

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 22/10/2006 23:59

In that case sean, GO EL NINO!!!!
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 23/10/2006 09:11

After ash Wednesday in 1983 (the result of the strongest Elnino event last century) Victoria has a very typical winter with snow to low altitude and good rains. More often than not , soaking rains follow the break down of el-nino. But not always. Back to back elnino events do occur.
Posted by: sugar mill tour guide

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 23/10/2006 09:18

so what ur saying is every year since 1991 has had el nino. well going on records i wouldnt doubt that for a second. cause we really havent has a decent wet season since Cyclone joy in 1991.
Posted by: E-J

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 23/10/2006 09:46

Quote:
Originally posted by Sugar mill tour guide:
so what ur saying is every year since 1991 has had el nino. well going on records i wouldnt doubt that for a second. cause we really havent has a decent wet season since Cyclone joy in 1991.
I think you may have forgotten the 1999-2000 period? and perhaps January 1998 massive floods in TOWNSVILLE? In February 1999, after Cyclone Rona crossed the coast North of Cairns on the 11th, there were massive falls across the NTC. The heaviest since the big floods of 1974. You need to consult your record books again mate, unless you are talking solely about the Mackay area? I have no idea what kind of weather you guys experienced but I am pretty sure the 1999-2000 period was pretty wet.

Also Joy was Christmas 1990 not 1991
Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 23/10/2006 11:09

I don't think anybody said that "every year since 1991 has had el nino"? Actually, about 5 or 6 years out of the last 15 have had el nino.
I agree it is also not true that there hasn't been "a decent wet season since 1991". Sometimes, even in el nino years there been good summer rains in parts of north Qld (1998 for example, for Townsville and further north).
There was good wet season rain in 1997, with several cyclones (including Justin)and a moderate flood in the Pioneer River.
1998 wet season was probably not so good in the Mackay area - most of the rain was further north, including the Townsville area, but there was unseasonable rain later in that year causing a minor flood in the Pioneer river. I think the 1999 and 2000 wet seasons were just reasonable in the Mackay area with the bulk of the rain further north. There was a record or near record out of season event around 360 mm, in November 2000 in Mackay. There was some flooding early in 2002. That was followed by el nino in 2002/03. Since then the wet seasons have NOT been good in this area.
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 23/10/2006 11:36

Spot on RN. Elnino years are variable. One thing that can't be overlooked this year, is that August was the driest since 1982 which culminated in the 1983 fires. The early forecast in the transition period toward elnino this year were all for a "weak" event. This followed on from an earlier prediction of a "neutral" season. My gut feeling is that this event has not peaked and is already in a moderate state.

Also SMTG we are (yes I will state the obvious) in an exremely dry prolonged period, elnino or otherwise. There are many other factors at play with our climate at the moment and no-one has all the answers. However it is fair to say that the northern hemisphere has had the lion's share of flooding events over the past 15 years or so. Will it swing back to us in the future? I have no doubt it will.
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 23/10/2006 14:29

Quote:
so what ur saying is every year since 1991 has had el nino. well going on records i wouldnt doubt that for a second. cause we really havent has a decent wet season since Cyclone joy in 1991.
r u kidding?? 1998 was one of the wettest years on record for north QLD. Places like townsville recorded their yearly rainfall in a week or something like that. August was the most incredible in that places received like 10 times their normal. Take also the fact that darwin and the top end endured their wettest 'wet season' on record and this was during the 2nd strongest el nino ever recorded behind the 1982/83 one. 1999 was another wet year and 2000 was the 2nd wettest year across the country on RECORD. 2001 was ok and so was the start of 2002. you cant say you havent had anything for 15 years.

On the current note the current el nino seems to be gaining more strength and will by around December be a mammoth imo, possibly as strong as the 1997/98 one considering the strength of those westerlies. But i have a gut feeling that this current el nino wont harm us too hard. The current weather patterns across the country resemble a normal state compared to 2002 when you would see a high parked over the centre of the country with SW'lys blasting across VIC, NSW and QLD bringing dry conditions and dust storms. Another piece of evidence to support this is the early onset of a tropical cyclone just outside of australian waters. Im still predicting the tropics and parts of the south to receive an above average fall. Still there are a lot of other factors which we still dont know about so your best bet would be to wait and hope for the best..
Posted by: E-J

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 23/10/2006 14:31

Well said Bokkey
Posted by: AussieMark79

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 23/10/2006 19:16

remember from Mid 1998 - Early-Mid 2001

was a major La Nina event.

I think this el nino will be quite devastating to southern states tho Bokkey

places like Perth and Adelaide are the driest they have been for close to 90 years.

and Melbourne and Hobart are not that much better of either.

SYdney could see a very warm spring and summer tho

currently its second warmest spring on record in regards to max temps.
23.9C average max temp

record is 24.2C in 2002 Spring
Posted by: P.K.

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 23/10/2006 21:00

Three month Nino 3.4 anomaly is now +0.64C after the weekly value fell to +0.87C for the week ending 22/10. The BoM will not declare El Nino in the next advisory from what I've seen, it is possible they may in the one following that though.
Posted by: adon

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 23/10/2006 23:36

The only things that will throw a bit of uncertainty into this elnino is the time of year it is happening. Most of the time these things develop in the S hem autumn so we may be in for a bad summer or it may not effect us too much more. For us in NW Vic we are getting into our dry season anyway so having no rain is not a big concern now. Our year was stuffed 2 months ago so as long as this elnino is gone by March, we are not going to be effected much more than we already are(stuffed wink ) It will be very interesting to see how this event workes out. I for one will be keeping a close eye on the Indian ocean instead 'cos I reckon that where our rains come from.
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 24/10/2006 11:47

The current weather patterns across the country resemble a normal state

I have lived in Nth Queensland for 15 years now and this is the only year I have seen 1030hpa+ highs sitting in the bight in September/ October. March /April it would be consider normal but not in spring. Nothing normal about the patterns.
Posted by: bogong

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 24/10/2006 12:13

Quote:
Originally posted by adon:
Most of the time these things develop in the S hem autumn so we may be in for a bad summer or it may not effect us too much more. For us in NW Vic we are getting into our dry season anyway so having no rain is not a big concern now. Our year was stuffed 2 months ago
I think you are right Adon - the El Nino has pretty much done its damage across the country. The map from the BoM below shows the impact on summer rain from an average of 12 moderate-strong El Nino events. As you can see it is pretty much just (east) Coastal Cape York and NW Tasmania that tend to do badly. For the rest it is not that far off normality and some places (eastern, southern WA and NW NSW) can even a bit wetter.



Winter and Spring on average, of course, reflects the disaster we have just (and continue to) experience(d).



The link to the full page is here .
Posted by: sugar mill tour guide

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 24/10/2006 12:29

i would say lets just see what the futre brings. it planing to be very intresting according to the forum.
Posted by: Inclement Weather

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 24/10/2006 12:30

Quote:
Originally posted by runoff:
A BoM employee made the comment this week that it is most unusual to see high pressure systems centred so far south at this time of year. The current high is forecast to peak at 1037hpa in the Tasman sea and direct further showers on to the east coast. He also said that although the remaining winter rainfall outlook is below average , the chances of showers continuing along the tropical east coast are above average. Over the past fortnight these SE trade winds have further reduced the warming trend in the equatorial pacific.
The above post was from the 17 July this year. Runoff, how precient was this BoM employee! It has turned out to be spot on!

And here's some optimism from Bokkey taken from the Xavier thread:

Quote:
Plenty of opportunity left for a QLD landfall this season, still early days . hopefully this is a sign of an active season ahead as much chance as there is of a very quiet one. Just need that water to warm up a little further. The reason its so cold this year so far is the persistence of the SE'ly surge onto NQLD for the last few months as a result of the stronger than usual highs down south which have been quiet strong through winter and as we speak. Once this pattern breaks down, expect the coral sea to warm rapidly and it should happen as we move into summer regardless of this strengthening el-nino.
Posted by: AussieMark79

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 24/10/2006 12:47

El Nino-Southern Oscillation Update
The 30-day SOI fell slightly this week, and at 21 October was -14. Contributing pressure anomalies were +2.0hPa at Darwin and -0.3hPa at Tahiti. The SOI has hovered around one standard deviation below the long-term mean since June, peaking around -5 in a recent active MJO phase. The official monthly SOI for September was -5, and its 5-month running mean centred on July was -9.
Posted by: P.K.

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 26/10/2006 09:06

Latest subsurface chart:

Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 26/10/2006 21:43

Latest long paddock report has called this event offically an Elnino..................................................Another El Nino event McRae
Information on ocean temperatures in the central Pacific (running eastward along the equator from the international dateline) continues to indicate a warming trend characteristic of an El Nino. As we have stated over the last six months, if this pattern persists it most likely will have a drying effect on our expected rainfall in spring and early summer as it did this winter over much of eastern Australia.

A common feature of an El Nino SST pattern is a later than normal start to the monsoon season. Its effect (or impact on expected rainfall) is usually less noticeable in mid to late summer for the northern half of Australia. For more on conditions in the Pacific try the Bureau of Meteorology at www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/

What is interesting is since 1990 there have been 8 identified El Nino events; 1991/92, 1992/93, 1993/94, 1994/95, 1997/98, 2002/03, 2004/05 and now 2006 which is an average of 1 every 2 years. This compares to 3 identified la Nina events; 1996/97, 1998/99 and 2000/01 which is an average of approximately 1 every 5 years.

Is the recent run of El Nino events a result of climate change? As our climate is influenced by both natural variability (eg orbital cycles, volcanic activity) and human induced environmental changes (eg greenhouse gases from power stations) it is difficult to say that individual events such as cyclones or droughts are the direct result of human induced climate change.

However it is worth noting that the 2001 Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change Report (IPCC) stated that 'El Niño events are becoming more common' and 'more El Niño-like mean conditions' may prevail in the future. A new IPCC report is due later this year.

While not every drought is the result of an El Nino and not every El Nino brings widespread drought across Australia, an increase in the frequency of these events will impact on business, agriculture and regional communities. I do not think this means shutting up shop. What I do think it means is that now is the time to look at how to adapt our industries and practices to handle these potential changes.

Based on the current position of the MJO it would be reasonable to next expect it in early to mid November. Usually during summer stronger MJO signals can be expected. The MJO is a band of low air pressure originating off the east coast of central Africa travelling eastward across the Indian Ocean and northern Australia roughly every 30 to 60 days. Research has shown the MJO to be a useful indicator of the timing of potential rainfall events (but not amounts). For more information try www.apsru.gov.au/mjo/

Current rainfall probability maps are at www.dpi.qld.gov.au/climate or www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au and SOI updates are available on (07) 46881439. For other enquires contact the DPI&F Information Centre on 132523.
Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 27/10/2006 07:40

It is interesting to note that despite the el nino, the latest seasonal rainfall outlook map from the BoM indicates 55 - 65% chances of above average November-January rainfall over much of northern and western Qld (although not so good for SE Qld). http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/rain.qld.shtml
This is quite a change from the previous October-December outlook.
As the BoM use ocean temperatures in the Pacific and Indian oceans in making these predictions, it seems they must be expecting warmer temperatures in the oceans north and west of Australia to help northern and NW Qld. On the other hand, the el nino like conditions in the Pacific presumably may be expected to produce below average rainfall for SE Qld.
Posted by: Raindammit

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 27/10/2006 07:48

Quote:
Originally posted by Rainy Night:
It is interesting to note that despite the el nino, the latest seasonal rainfall outlook map from the BoM indicates 55 - 65% chances of above average November-January rainfall over much of northern and western Qld
Historically though, El-Nino has had very little impact on rainfall in the tropics during the wet, except for the far NE Cape, which probably reflects the lower number of TC crossings across the cape during El-Nino years:

Posted by: storm freak

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 28/10/2006 14:45

waters starting to heat up on the west coast today it is sitting 26 nearly 27 in some parts and the hot water has also moved south with the northerlies here is the link www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/nmoc/nmoc.sat.mon...01.20061028.gif
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 28/10/2006 15:44

Theyre actually 29C+ (1-1.5C warmer than avg) off NW WA:

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/nmoc/latest_YM.pl?IDCODE=IDY00007
Posted by: storm freak

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 28/10/2006 15:50

sorry i meant the east coast
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 29/10/2006 00:37

Earlier in this thread someone mentioned that the data missing in the eastern pacific on the surface maps, may have been due to vandalism for the copper. They were right.
Saturday October 28, 2006 (PDT)


ALERT! TAO moorings in the eastern Pacific (95°W and 110°W) have been heavily vandalized since June 2006. These moorings are scheduled for replacement in November 2006. Recent graphical displays of TAO / TRITON data have been adjusted to account for data void regions east of 125°W.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


The TAO Story Real-time data from moored ocean buoys for improved detection, understanding and prediction of El Niño and La Niña.
Posted by: seaweed

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 29/10/2006 01:07

Not surprised runoff, the price of copper is amazing. The average home now has over $2000 worth of copper in it. A mate who had his home destroyed by Larry had a couple of offers for the piping. (He refused because he is rebuilding).
Posted by: AussieMark79

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 29/10/2006 20:46

the 30 day average of SOI is now down to -16.09
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 29/10/2006 21:06

Just for record matters, the 2002 peak el-nino (30 day) SOI value was down to -14.6 on that August. The 1997/98 el-nino peak (30 day) SOI value was -28.5 on that March. So far we're worse than 2002 and on the way to being worse than 97/98. The 1982/83 el nino went as bad as -33.3 (february). The longest run of negative monthly SOI values I can see from the soi table was 33 months in a row starting mid 1939 and ending early to mid 1942. But at the moment we're on the 6th consecutive month thankfully. nevertheless its rough times ahead..
Posted by: Tempest

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 29/10/2006 21:10

I dont think we are any where near as bad as 97/98. Compare Oct 97 with Oct 06!
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 29/10/2006 21:12

Quote:
Compare Oct 97 with Oct 06!
Oct 1997 was -17.8 and we're so far on -16.1, so yeah id say we're heading in that direction.
Posted by: AussieMark79

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 29/10/2006 21:29

SSTS in 1997/98 were significantly worse

but SOI is getting to those levels however

the SOI is definately worse than 2002/03 event

however in 2004/05 event the SOI did drop to -29.1 in February 2005
Posted by: Alexia

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 30/10/2006 06:16

Bokkey I know the daily soi for 29-10-06 was -16.09 but don't they take the monthly figure from the middle of the month which was -14.25 on 15-10-06.
Posted by: KevD

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 30/10/2006 08:13

Hi Alexia

Monthly figure would be an average of the whole month - so add the 31 days together and then divide by 31 smile
Posted by: Tempest

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 30/10/2006 09:40

Bokkey,

SOI's are only one indication, SST's are another.

24 Oct 06


24 Oct 97
Posted by: AussieMark79

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 30/10/2006 09:49

Quote:
Originally posted by Alexia:
Bokkey I know the daily soi for 29-10-06 was -16.09 but don't they take the monthly figure from the middle of the month which was -14.25 on 15-10-06.
the 30 day average is -16.09

yesterdays daily figure was -15.40

the 90 day average is now -11.69
Posted by: E-J

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 30/10/2006 10:56

Quote:
Originally posted by Tempest:
Bokkey,

SOI's are only one indication, SST's are another.

24 Oct 06


24 Oct 97
Aren't the sea temps and relative pressures directly proportional anyway? Hotter sea temps = lower pressures, cooler sea temps = Higher pressures (over water). So basically the SOI *should* practically reflect what the SSTs are telling us, shouldn't they???
Posted by: BD (Bucketing Down)

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 30/10/2006 13:20

Not that simple E-J. Time lag temp ocean to temp atmosphere and pressure. Different temps around area of central Pacific Ocean will alter pressures also.
Rossby wave passages will alter also.
SOI is very influenced by passing high and low pressure systems near Darwin and Tahiti on a daily and weekly basis, also by MJO tropical waves, etc. So in very general terms yes they do go hand in hand somewhat, but in many days and weeks not neccessarily, and even for a month or so occasionally also.
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 30/10/2006 16:22

One hovering low perssure system can have a major effect on SOI readings. Not to mention seas-surface temps. Cyclone Justin was stationary long enough to cool the surface temp by 2 degs.
Posted by: P.K.

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 30/10/2006 21:44

The weekly Nino 3.4 anomaly of +0.97C is the highest so far taking the three month average to +0.68C. Another three weeks or so of this level and the BoM may call it El Nino.
Posted by: Sean M

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 30/10/2006 22:25

I noticed on the SST that tempest showed, that the water off eastern aus is colder than in 1997. Although the pacific tems are nowhere near as hot, that cold water could be having the same effect as warming the pacific by another degree or 2, if the temps were normal off eastern aus? I know that was a bit hard to understand, but its the best way i could say it
Posted by: F5

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 30/10/2006 23:47

there will be no weak La nino they forcast a neutral condition Eg very low perssure system will form very quickly like Cyclone larry, the water temps of the north queensland coast are warming up fast. 26 drg's cyclone season starts at 12 midnight so bring it on i can handle another cat 5 for sure..
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 31/10/2006 00:08

lol @ la nino. Yeah ur right about the queensland waters warming up tho. few days ago were 24c, now theyre almost up to 26c in places, and with that N'ly now arriving for summer the waters should warm further and reach the cyclone sustainability level smile . Could be an out-of-the-ordinary season despite the elnino, this year has been fulla everything, not to mention Xavier although sheared to bits. The screaming shear should ease as the N/NE'lys start hitting the N QLD coast pushing the jet further south allowing cyclones to make landfall more easily, but id be guessing the chances will be greatest after January.
Posted by: seaweed

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 31/10/2006 00:26

An interesting thought is that with global warming, all the forecasts & the paradigms they are based on that we thought will occur this season do not occur. Global warming makes our models invalid (because our models are based on history) and we have to come up with new equations to accurately forecast the weather. Hmmm...
Posted by: BD (Bucketing Down)

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 31/10/2006 07:48

Makes little or no difference seaweed If you use the latest 30 year data set always.
Above Average, Average and Below Average SST's still create a certain weather conditions whatever 30 year period you are in, even if they are warming up slowly. SST's this year created just the weather that they should have created. If you were using a 30 year data set from early in the century to try and forecast this years weather, well they may not work as well, but if you use the current 30year data set, there are no problems.
Posted by: Craig Arthur

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 31/10/2006 08:04

In certain applications, I'd argue it can make a significant impact. For example, the maximum potential intensity (MPI) of TC's is sensitive to the SST. If you are trying to model the maximum wind speeds over the next 30 years then using the last 30 years' mean SST may well lead to an underprediction of the MPI and hence wind speeds (given some predictions for the changes in SST). It is dependent on the rate of change though - the time scales I'm looking at are of order 100 - 1000 yrs, so the implications may well be more significant than in a prediction for the next season or two.
Posted by: BD (Bucketing Down)

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 31/10/2006 08:33

Fair enough Craig, I was referring to general weather monthly and seasonal patterns across areas, not smaller scale TC's which are, of course, influenced in intensity by higher SST's.
Posted by: Tempest

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 31/10/2006 08:58

Sean M, an indication of the severity of the 97 el-nino is the amount of cold water off Indonesia. Whenever I have a look at the previous el nino SST's I'm amazed on how the waters off Indonesia and Peru gauge the situation.
Posted by: P.K.

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 31/10/2006 11:15

I did these for somewhere else but may as well post them here as well. The first is the SOI using the 1887 to 1989 base period. The second is the Nino 3.4 SSTA using the NOAA data (One less decimal place than the BoM data but it goes back further) excluding the value from this week. The +/- 0.5 lines are the NOAA definitions from what I can see on their website, and the +/- 0.8 lines are the BoM defintion from what I can tell from the ENSO updates.


Posted by: E-J

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 31/10/2006 16:01

Quote:
Originally posted by F5:
26 drg's cyclone season starts at 12 midnight so bring it on i can handle another cat 5 for sure..
You can handle another one can you? Have you even been in one? Think about the poor people that will be cacking their dacks if another approaches the NTC.
Posted by: AussieMark79

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 31/10/2006 19:07

El Nino-Southern Oscillation Update
The 30-day SOI changed marginally this week and at 28 October it was -16. Contributing pressure anomalies were +2.4 hPa at Darwin and -0.2hPa at Tahiti.
Posted by: AussieMark79

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 31/10/2006 19:10

Quote:
Originally posted by F5:
there will be no weak La nino they forcast a neutral condition Eg very low perssure system will form very quickly like Cyclone larry, the water temps of the north queensland coast are warming up fast. 26 drg's cyclone season starts at 12 midnight so bring it on i can handle another cat 5 for sure..
this el nino event is getting close to 2004/05 event already. And Australia was very quiet that season.

when Nino 4 warms up east coast hits are lower probability as stronger shear than normal is experienced across QLD

Nino 4 is +1.1C anomality this week
Posted by: seaweed

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 31/10/2006 20:14

Quote:
Originally posted by holts:
Makes little or no difference seaweed If you use the latest 30 year data set always.
Above Average, Average and Below Average SST's still create a certain weather conditions whatever 30 year period you are in, even if they are warming up slowly. SST's this year created just the weather that they should have created. If you were using a 30 year data set from early in the century to try and forecast this years weather, well they may not work as well, but if you use the current 30year data set, there are no problems.
The problem with your analysis is that it is very narrowly focused. For one thing I see local SST as having only a slight influence on tropical weather. When the last coral bleaching episode occurred (2002-03) we had a very dry wet season despite the hot SST's. This would of been explained by the lack of cloud heating up local waters.
With global warming, could it be that there maybe tipping points where that extra nth degree causes a weather outcome outside of what we would expect. An outcome not predicted by our dataset. That is the point we need to consider.
Posted by: Sean M

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 31/10/2006 23:01

thanks for that tempest, i always assumed it was just east pacific temps vs west pacific temps. in general that is
Posted by: BD (Bucketing Down)

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 01/11/2006 07:23

Sea-weed: The SST temps I use to forecast in my computer models have not changed in accuracy over the years. In fact, the seem to be getting better at forecasting all the time actually! If I were to see significant changes in the forecasting ability of SSt's over time, I should have seen them by now.
I am only talking about weather here, not coral or anything else like that.
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 01/11/2006 09:17

No-one can say for sure if coral bleaching is not a natural thing. It seems to coincide with crown of thorns outbreaks. Maybe these things are an ingredient to keeping the reef alive in the longer term. We mow our lawn and it comes back stronger. The earth has been hotter than this before.
Posted by: Tempest

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 01/11/2006 09:27

Who's mowing the lawns at the reef?
Posted by: seaweed

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 01/11/2006 16:20

Quote:
Originally posted by holts:
Sea-weed: The SST temps I use to forecast in my computer models have not changed in accuracy over the years. In fact, the seem to be getting better at forecasting all the time actually! If I were to see significant changes in the forecasting ability of SSt's over time, I should have seen them by now.
I am only talking about weather here, not coral or anything else like that.
The reference to coral was only to emphasize how warm the ocean was back in 2002-03. Nothing more. *shakes head*
Posted by: AussieMark79

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 01/11/2006 17:14

El Nino now meets BOM criteria

There was a general strengthening of all ENSO indicators during October. What will become known as the 2006/07 El Niño, has now developed and is primed to enter the maturing phase, which is characterised by self-sustaining feedback between the Pacific ocean temperatures, winds and cloud patterns. Computer model guidance indicates that Pacific Ocean temperatures are likely to peak around January or February 2007.


In Brief

* Pacific climate patterns show an intensifying El Niño.
* Equatorial Pacific SSTs have been warming and are over El Niño thresholds.
* Subsurface temperatures have remained warm and have increased in response to a strong westerly wind burst.
* The SOI has fallen to a current (30th October) 30-day value of −15.
* Trade Winds remain much weaker than normal in the western to central Pacific.
* Cloudiness near the date-line has been increasing since late May and was much higher than average in October.
* Computer models are nearly unanimous in predicting El Niño conditions for the rest of 2006 and early 2007.

Source
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 01/11/2006 17:36

Well if its likely to peak around jan/feb its fine for us, we tend to feel less effect during that time so thats good. I also wouldnt be too fussed about this elnino. This time last year the pacific underwent rapid cooling and we headed for a weak la nina which never really eventuated, but nevertheless the continent was very dry and we had a horrible storm season. But now as we enter this worse situation - a strong el nino - we are experiencing increased rain and storm activity across large parts of the country as we head into summer months. Doesnt really make sense but hey its all good at least its something than nothing.. now we can see how we go this time.
Posted by: Raindammit

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 01/11/2006 17:54

Like I've said before most of the tropics also have little to worry about with El-Nino developing at this time of year, except for the far northern CYP which historically receives less rainfall than average during the summer months in El-Nino years. The rainfall outlook for the tropics over the next 3 months is actually better than this time last year, SE QLD/Eastern NSW is a different story:

October 2006 3 month outlook:


October 2005 3 month outlook:
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 01/11/2006 17:57

Ill have to disagree with BoM on the 30-40% patches over NSW and QLD, i dont understand why they are predicting that. We have better set-ups for infeeds from that tropical moisture into these deep troughs we are predicted to get in the next few days and the weeks ahead (seasonally), more and stronger upper troughs than last year, and with the rain predicted for most of NSW and QLD tomorrow, inland areas will probably already receive their monthly average.
Posted by: KevD

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 01/11/2006 18:54

Absolutely agree with you there Bokkey. They mention the lack of rain in NE NSW because of the warm Pacific - when it is actually pretty cool off the coast of Australia and warmer in the far east near S America...Which makes no sense because 6 months ago they were referring to the warm Pacific as a good reason for little rain when we had warm ocean near us and cold ocean in the far east...Seem to be some mixed wires somewhere (and hoping it isn't me smile )

In addition - the standard el nino rain for NE NSW is for an increase of rain in an el nino...according to their data...yet with a pretty standard el nino they are predicting we will get little...Just doesn't make sense to me and when I saw their charts I immediately lost faith in their seasonal prediction models. Blair - if you are out there can you shed any light on this?
Posted by: Keith

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 01/11/2006 19:27

Quote:
Originally posted by Bokkey:
Ill have to disagree with BoM on the 30-40% patches over NSW and QLD, i dont understand why they are predicting that.
If you haven't done so already Boris, don't forget the 'fine print'. These forecasts are for the percentage probability of getting the median rainfall over the entire 3 months. We certainly could (and in fact I think we will) get some good rain this month, but look out for a dry, compensating December that will probably knock the gains back down to nearer the predicted figure, especially now that a dry October has passed already.

I hope of course that that doesn't happen.
Posted by: P.K.

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 01/11/2006 23:39

Didn't think they'd call it this update but even the Nino 3.4 average should reach the values they were stating within two or three weeks.
Posted by: Raindammit

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 02/11/2006 09:59

Its good to see the BOM show that its not always all 'doom & gloom' just because of an imminent El-Nino event (from the latest ENSO Wrap-up):

'What does this mean for Australia? Generally speaking the main impact on rainfall is during winter and spring, with a switch towards wetter conditions having been common, but by no means guaranteed, in January or February during previous El Niño events. For example, widespread moderate to heavy rain fell in February 2003 at the end of the 2002/03 El Niño event, while a similar pattern occurred in January 1995 after the peak of the 1994/95 event. In contrast, there was only patchy relief at the end of the 1965/66 event, with a substantial change in the rainfall patterns not occurring until August 1966. Readers are referred to Australian rainfall patterns during El Niño events as a guide as to how the next few seasons might pan out. '

smile
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 02/11/2006 22:17

It certainly went from being cool at night and mild days, to quite warm in a very short space of time. The humidity levels have picked up by 25% over the last weekend. Something is changing.
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 02/11/2006 22:29

And the water temps off a broad area of NW WA are 1-2c above avg (currently around 29-30c) in places and the majority of the indian is also warmer than avg. Coral sea temps are increasing correspondingly, 26-27c in the eastern parts extending westwards. Along with the early indicators of deep surface and upper troughs across the country, me thinks the tropics are gonna go off this wet season in terms of rain and storms eek , dont know about cyclones though. They might be supressed somewhat, but who knows.. just as much as BoM maintains some optimism we could see a rather wet summer despite the elnino.
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 03/11/2006 00:27

With current sea-surface variations cyclones are less likely to be strong. They can't be ruled out entirely though.
Posted by: AussieMark79

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 03/11/2006 00:39

the cyclone season will depend heavily on how shear levels are

there are 30 kts of shear or more over most of northern Australia at this time.

especially 15S and points further south
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 04/11/2006 14:57

Water off parts of WA is exceeding 31c. I just ran a little loop from the BoM SST temps and i can tell you the entire ocean off WA and NT is warming up fast! The coral is warming as well but very slowly. The water in the GOC that was 25-26c last week is now 28-29c! If this trend continues, or if its levelled off at least, theres no doubt the tropics (mainly over the top end) will see a ripper storm season.

Speaking of the ENSO situation; there have been some stronger bursts of trades in the eastern half of the pacific in the last couple of days, but i think the westerlies will win the day as they always do. The eastern half of the pacific is slowly cooling too.
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 04/11/2006 20:56

I still reckon we are an even money bet for some decent rain this summer. Whilst we are in a weak elnino ,there are other things that affect our weather. If the GOC warms up we might see some flood rains drift over QLD out of a monsoon low. It has happened before in ELnino years. Infact the Nth westerlies tend to drive the lows down through QLD. Fingers crossed.
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 05/11/2006 11:39

One particular run in the latest poama forecast goes for a weak (<-0.8c) La Nina by the end of April next year intensifying further during May and June. long way out but good to see something different on the forecast runs for a change smile

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/coupled_model/poama.shtml
Posted by: AussieMark79

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 05/11/2006 13:40

just remember this el nino was not even forcasted.
this time last year we were talking about a La Nina and a El Nino developed
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 06/11/2006 00:50

Yes Mark you are right. Every single model was forecasting a Neutral pattern. Just shows the models can be way out.
Posted by: Steamy

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 06/11/2006 08:59

Negative Nancies
Posted by: Tempest

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 06/11/2006 09:37

Some warmer SST's starting to creep into the coral sea.
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 06/11/2006 13:04

Yeah tempest I just looked at the BoM sst map, dont know if you saw the same thing, shows areas of 26-27c seeping into the coral. Warmer ocean over NW WA will supress the strong shear over the country and increase the TC chances this summer. I would punt on a low to form in the GOC moving east and going up off cairns, but id much rather see that monsoon flow delivering tons of rain up there smile
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 06/11/2006 16:51

Sea-surface temps have dropped one deg along the eastern equatorial pacific. Very early days yet, but a breakdown over the next month or two would see some good rains this summer.
Posted by: Sean M

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 06/11/2006 23:47

We can only hope, YTD rainfall is only about 400-500mm, should be around 1000. Wasnt the pacific warm last year, but a warm indian ocean kind of balanced it out?
Posted by: adon

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 13/11/2006 23:19

Well I have been away for a couple of weeks and have not been able to get up to date on the ESNO situation. What has been going on? Looking at a SST anom chart it seems that the warm spot east of PNG has not moved as far east as I would have thought it would have in an el nino. The far Sth American coast has not warmed much more and the whole Pacific has warmed. The thing that looks weird is that the western warm spot seems to be hotter the the rest. If only that was near Qld!
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 14/11/2006 22:47

It is that warm area in the western pacific that has the greatest bearing on our rainfall Adon. The further the warm water spreads back across the pacific the more likely we are to get a rainfall deficiency. Though the water is now warming in the Nth west of oz so it should help with our rainfall towars the end of the year. Fingers crossed.
Posted by: AussieMark79

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 14/11/2006 23:26

Nino 3.4 anomalities rose to +1.09C this week

and Nino 4 rose to +1.23C

shows el nino is still strengthening
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 20/11/2006 00:38

Very strange Elnino we have this year. Coastal showers and Sth easterlies. Last elnino was typified by westerlies and dry air at this time of year. Very odd.
Posted by: AussieMark79

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 20/11/2006 18:59

Nino 3.4 rose to +1.28C this week (a rise of 0.19C)

since November it has really spiked

November 5: +0.91
November 12: +1.09
November 19: +1.28

the 3 month average is now +0.85
Posted by: sugar mill tour guide

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 20/11/2006 19:05

it seems as though that the weather patterns have been here there and everywhere. So im feelin as though the wetseason is just around the corner. dont take note though as i could be wrong. see u later
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 22/11/2006 17:29

eek @ those sub-surface temps !!!!



ENSO Wrap-up - http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/ :

Summary: El Niño continues to strengthen

There has been a further strengthening of the El Niño during November: Pacific Ocean temperatures have continued to warm along the equator, the Trade Winds remain weaker than average and cloudiness is above normal in the western to central Pacific. The 2006/07 El Niño now looks to be entering the maturing phase, which is characterised by self-sustaining feedback between the Pacific ocean temperatures, winds and cloud patterns. Computer model guidance indicates that Pacific Ocean temperatures are likely to peak around January or February 2007.


go you good thing, get as strong as you can so that our next la-nina be a ripper! Although it would be pretty devestating if we got a huge la-nina and got bugger all rain from it. It's happend before - in the 30s and 60s.
Posted by: Raindammit

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 22/11/2006 17:49

In deference to the developing El-Nino perhaps, the SOI has been in the positives for 3 days now. Currently its at +18.5.
Posted by: adon

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 23/11/2006 22:32

was listening to rural radio today. They had a report on the lastest seasonal forecasts out. They were saying there is a "duel" between the indian Ocean and the pacific atm. The indian is heating up promoting wetter conditions and we all know what is going on in the Pacific. I havent looked at an SST map for a week but sounds like if this elnino breaks up in the next few months we could be in for a wet spell!!!
Posted by: AussieMark79

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 23/11/2006 22:41

this event is already stonger than 2004/05 event ever got.

that event never reached sst anomalities in Nin Region 3.4 >+1.0C at any point
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 24/11/2006 00:11

That's right AM79 and it's been reflected in rainfall (or lack of) in most of eastern Australia. It is nice to see the SOI on an upward trend, however it may be short lived.
Posted by: AussieMark79

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 24/11/2006 00:35

September rebounded somewhat after a dry August
before October nearly went as low as August did
Posted by: BD (Bucketing Down)

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 24/11/2006 10:30

Recent cooling of SST's here does not bode well for TC,s off QLD for the next few weeks or so or more!
Posted by: Tempest

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 24/11/2006 10:52

I dont beleive that this elnino will get any stronger, its weak to moderate atm, SOI has been fluctuating recently, warmer waters starting to creep into the coral sea.

(All we need now is rain!!!)
Posted by: Tempest

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 24/11/2006 11:04

Just for interest guys.





Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 24/11/2006 13:27

Yeah Tempest, i compared the 1997 scenario with the current a few weeks ago. Theres a good similarity tho between 1994 and now.

The coral sea temps have dropped right off now and atm are 2-2.5 below avg, bad news for the cyclones and rain systems there. The SOI has risen somewhat over the last couple of days but it will drop again like a fly as the elnino strengthens further.

The worst news is that some models are predicting ANOTHER elnino to develop next August (2007). Come on..what the hells going on! mad
Posted by: KevD

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 24/11/2006 13:47

Quote:
Originally posted by Bokkey:
Yeah Tempest, i compared the 1997 scenario with the current a few weeks ago. Theres a good similarity tho between 1994 and now.

The coral sea temps have dropped right off now and atm are 2-2.5 below avg, bad news for the cyclones and rain systems there. The SOI has risen somewhat over the last couple of days but it will drop again like a fly as the elnino strengthens further.

The worst news is that some models are predicting ANOTHER elnino to develop next August (2007). Come on..what the hells going on! mad
Climate change wink

Out of interest have the Coral Sea temps dropped right off in the last few days because compared to a month ago they are on their way up...at least they were until about a week ago when compared to a month ago.
Posted by: Raindammit

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 24/11/2006 13:54

Quote:
Originally posted by Bokkey:

The worst news is that some models are predicting ANOTHER elnino to develop next August (2007). Come on..what the hells going on! mad
Thats a LOOOONG way away in meteorlogical terms, I would not put any faith in forecasts that far in the future!!
Posted by: Raindammit

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 24/11/2006 14:09

Actually, just had a quick look at the 12 models that the BOM look at to determine the probabilities for El-Nino, and out of the models that can look that far ahead only ONE ( LDEO ) is going for El-Nino conditions towards the end of next year. The other 7 models that look that far ahead indicate that SST's will be steadily falling back toward neutral territory toward the end of 2007. Like I said though, thats a loooong way in the future and a LOT can happen between now and then.
:cheers:
Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 24/11/2006 14:50

Yes, August 2007 is too far ahead in have any confidence in the forecast by one model for another el nino event. In the current El Nino conditions, it is not suprising that two cyclones have already developed in the Fiji AOR, as historically they are more numerous in El Nino seasons. Regardless of El Nino, it is also hardly suprising that the cyclones have not been able to make their way into Qld waters at this time of year. I think there is reason for optimism that conditons will be more suitable for tropical systems in our area before the end of the cyclone season. I also think that the SOI is likely to reasonably close to positive values for the next couple of weeks, as the MJO should be in Phases 4 and 5 over the next week or two - it is currently in Phase 3. I know that the BoM say that an MJO event in late November/early December should be too early to cause monsoon onset in northern Australia, but it will still to interesting to see what occurs, as I think there is reason for some optimism in this period.
Posted by: Inclement Weather

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 24/11/2006 14:56

Agreed RN. I think with grobal warming, in the coming years text books on normal climatic indicators such as El Nino etc will be thrown out the window.
Posted by: AussieMark79

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 24/11/2006 15:50

also remember in years where Nino 4 runs warm the shear is generally higher across Australia so we see reduced cyclones counts in our waters.

Remember the surface sst is just part of the puzzle. u also have the weakening of trade winds which could explain the cooling of waters off queensland recently as the ssts in Nino 3.4 have spiked in the last 2 weeks

u have the subsurface ssts to look at as well as the surface

http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/ocean/results/ocean_anals/SEQ_Equator/2006/Nov.gif
Posted by: Tempest

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 24/11/2006 17:44

The current el-nino is different, it developed around mid spring, and I dont recall any info earlier this year that an elnino was going to develop, indications back then were thet we were in for neautral to weak la nina conditions.
Posted by: Johnoo

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 24/11/2006 17:54

Hi Guys I'm preety new to this good to read all this information, I read somewhere in the forum this El nino isn't affecting Australia as badly as the 2002-03 El nino? Well down here in Melbourne we are experiencing our 3rd driest Spring on record in 150 years of records it may not be as bad as the 2002-03 in some northern areas Of Australia but its terrible down here I would say worse than the 2002 El nino, we just had our 2nd driest June on record worth while rains in July then dry August half our normal rainfall in September 2nd driest October on record thats 2 months out of the last 5 that we have had 2nd driest and now November just 1/3 of our normal rainfall it's also had a strong affect in south West Australia, Tasmania, south east South Australia and Southern parts of New south wales. I have been keeping an eye on the ssts anamolies and have noticed the waters off WA have warmed up in the last 4 weeks go you good thing. Can anyone tell me whats doing off the coast of Qld? In the Coral sea are the waters back to normal close to average for this time of the year? Cos they were slowly warming up as well the last few weeks or are they on the dive again? To me this El Nino is a moderate one the El nino it self is stronger than the 2002-03 which was weak itself but had preety strong affect in Aus but still no where near as strong as the 1997-98 but with that El Nino there were some good timely rains in May and Sepetmber through inland Australia in 1997 even though the event was strong itself the Warm SSTS seemed to stayed more in the eastern pacific where the last 2 El Ninos this one and the 2002 event the warm anamolies have been more concentrated in the central pacific around the date line I wonder if that has some affect on whether its a dry as el nino or average rainfall el nino or close to average at least? Even though the 97 event was strong the warm anamolies were further east therefore didn't have a huge impact over eastern and northern Australia seems like with the warmer anamolies closer to the dateline ( central pacific) affects Eastern Australia more in terms of drought what do you think guys? I would relate this one closer to the 1994-95 in terms of strength same SOI month to month quite similar and the SSTS are similar too mabye this one slightly stronger but with each El nino there is some light at the end of the tunnel 82-83 event widespread rains substantial rains arrived across most of the country in March and good follow up rains the following months, 94-95 saw heavy widespread rains arrive in Januray across the east of the country in the help of a monsoon low tracking South East from Northern Australia thru Southern Qld and NSW. 97-98 saw preety good wet season but it was the same year (97) that Melbourne had its 2nd driest year on record 1967 was our driest we saw plenty of rain arrive in March and April 1998 throughtout most of Australia which set the scene for the rest of that year moving into La nina status and the 2002-03 event the rains arrived In February with a cyclone crossing the coast in Qld which helped to bring in low level moisture into the central and southern parts of the continent helping out with the southern systems, a monsoon low off the coast of WA also helped to bring in alot of rain from the north west as well that month so as you can see the break usually occurs anytime from Jan to april but usually the Feb or March period but before it does lets hope this El Nino strengthens abit more which would end up at least make it a moderate to strong event after all said and done with which may "trigger" of a La Nina for later next year were due for one anyway been long enough. I also read something about solar flare ups or solar energy and lack of it the last 10 years and some scientist predicting that in 2007 it will return back to normal and has a correlation with rainfall enhancing it here in Australia hopefully there right but time will tell anyway guys not all doom and gloom lets keep our fingers crossed that early next year we will get substantial widespread rains through most states.

Cheers John from Melbourne.
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 24/11/2006 18:12

Brilliantly said John, and like you I certainly hope things turn for the better as of next year, we are overdue for a strong la-nina its been about 5 years since the last decent one. And yes i agree with you on the location of the warmer sst anomalies in the pacific. When they are further east (ie. 97/98 el nino) we tend to be better off as it doesnt have as much of an impact here. When they are further west around the dateline (ie 02/03 and current elnino) we tend to cop the brunt of the bad effects.
Posted by: Tempest

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 24/11/2006 22:28

Good old solar flares, read the same thing back in 2002, something about the next ten years being our wettest. Well I also do believe that we
are due for a wet cycle, when that happens who knows.

It seems as though that we have been experiencing more weak/moderate el-nino cycles and with stronger ones in between than la-nina events. (I think 1982 elo-nino set the scene)

It would be great if we had the reverse, longer periods of la nina cycles.

And I think climate change has been mentioned once in this thread. Its real, and we do not know how it will effect el-nino/la nina events in the long term. Predictions are going to get virtually impossible.
Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 24/11/2006 23:07

Well, there has been an almost complete absence of coastal crossings of tropical cyclones on the central and southern Qld coast (south of about Bowen) in the past 20 years. Before that, the southern half of the Qld coastline could expect to see a coastal impact once in 3-4 years. In fact, there now has not been a crossing for 13 years on all that length of coastline (since TC Fran crossed in the Gladstone/Bundaberg area in 1993). While in this time, TC impacts on the N. tropical coast have probably been little less than the historal average. We could speculate that this has been because of an increase in el nino events, but the fact is that there have also been some La Nina events in that time. So it seems that something else besides La Nina is required for tropical activity to extend south of the the tropics (on the east coast in any case). People in the Mackay area and south to Brisbane would be hoping for that something to occur very soon, whether it is solar flares or whatever .. or just a return of a previous decadal variation.
Not that we would wish for a Cat. 4 or 5 cyclone of course, but a low category system or good tropical depression seems what is required to fill the dams!
Posted by: Subtropical

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 26/11/2006 18:36

Gday folks,

Just joined this terrific forum. How did I miss this place for so long???

Hi Rainy Night. I have a bit of trivia regarding your message. I don't know if cyclone Beni actually "crossed the coast" but it did have a substantial affect on the Queensland coast in 2003.

Quote:
Originally posted by Rainy Night:
In fact, there now has not been a crossing for 13 years on all that length of coastline (since TC Fran crossed in the Gladstone/Bundaberg area in 1993).

Not that we would wish for a Cat. 4 or 5 cyclone of course, but a low category system or good tropical depression seems what is required to fill the dams!
Cyclone Beni in February 2003, affected the coast from Rockhampton to the Gold Coast. Around the Lowmead (Makowata) area 750 mm of rain fell in less than a week. Monduran Dam rose from about 10% to 80% in that time. Some info I found also indicates about $10 million in damage was caused.

Despite the financial cost, this might be the type of TC we'd be looking for.

Here's some more info http://www.australianweathernews.com/news/2003/030206.STM

Cheers! :cheers:
Posted by: Inclement Weather

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 26/11/2006 19:48

Welcome to the forum Subtropical. Always good to share those dreams of a day when we did have decent rain in the SE corner of this state - Brisbane in particular! :rolleyes:

By the way, it would be good if you can tell us all what town you're from - Queensland is a big state! wink
Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 26/11/2006 20:26

Hello, Subtropical. Yes, I remember tropical cyclone Beni. It had been a South Pacific cyclone named by Fiji, and weakened near New Caledonia before its remains headed west towards Qld. It briefly regenerated east of Mackay, and a TC warning was actually issued for the Central Coast/Whitsundays, but the system weakened to a depression before it reached the coast. I understand that the remnant low crossed the coast somewhere near St Lawrence (with little wind), and together with an upper level system brought the rain as reported in the link you provided. This was a fairly unusual combination of events, but it would be good if it could happen again, because at least there was no wind damage, though the rain may have been a little too much in some places!
That was in an el nino event too, so if there are a few of those cyclones well out in the south Pacific as often happens in el nino, there is always a chance one might wander over this way!
Posted by: Subtropical

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 26/11/2006 21:04

I remember well the huge amount of rain. It caused the upper reaches of Baffle Creek to rise from a trickle to 17 metres which hadn't happened since 1974 (20 m). Bring it on! :p
Posted by: Johnoo

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 27/11/2006 02:07

Yes if I recall right it was a cyclone right up until a few hours before it crossed the coast Beni was downgraded .. Nevertheless it crossed as a Tropical depression and as we can see produced alot of rain thru that central coast area. Thanks for that subtropical.
Posted by: AussieMark79

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 27/11/2006 13:07

Quote:
Originally posted by Subtropical:
I remember well the huge amount of rain. It caused the upper reaches of Baffle Creek to rise from a trickle to 17 metres which hadn't happened since 1974 (20 m). Bring it on! :p
That was Tropical Cyclone Wanda right?
Posted by: AussieMark79

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 27/11/2006 23:06

Nino 3.4 this week has continued to strengthen

+1.31C

over the last 3 months thats now a average of +0.90C
Posted by: adon

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 27/11/2006 23:16

Yet the SOI is in the neutral range above -3. Very strange.
Posted by: Johnoo

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 27/11/2006 23:40

Correct me if i'm wrong guys has there been WWB westerly wind burst over the pacific since early Oct? when the SOI went up, I don't think there has even though is gathering in strength in other ways this El nino like example the ssts are getting warmer does it need another WWB to lower the SOI again? cos it is kind of weird is -3 while the central pacific is heating up more.
Posted by: Johnoo

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 27/11/2006 23:41

Sorry i meant when the SOI went down. Anyway if someone can let me know be great.
Posted by: AussieMark79

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 27/11/2006 23:55

the 90 day average is still -7.52 which is still faily low but not as low as it was.

just remember September had a fairly high SOI reading before October rebounded in a big way. SO I doubt this negative SOI phase is over just yet.
Posted by: AussieMark79

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 27/11/2006 23:58

the WWB is basically the weakening of trade winds which allows the warm pools of abnormal waters to build up

i.e from lastest ENSO statement

Quote:
During cool/warm ENSO episodes, there is a sustained strengthening/weakening of the Trade Winds across much of the tropical Pacific but a return to near-average values as the ENSO event decays. The strongest weakening of the Trades for this El Niño event occurred in October: for most of the month the Trade Winds were weaker or much weaker than average over most of the Pacific Basin (a westerly wind burst). This resulted in renewed warming of surface waters and an eastward propagating Kelvin wave of sub-surface warming (see above). There has been little change in November, with the Trades being significantly weaker than normal across much of the Pacific. The TAO/TRITON map (small image above), for the five days ending 20th November, shows moderately to strongly weakened Trade Winds in the region of the date-line.
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 28/11/2006 12:06

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ENSO-summary.shtml

The near-equatorial Pacific has continued to warm steadily during November, with the latest weekly values of the Pacific NINO3 (eastern Pacific, +1.1°C), NINO3.4 (central Pacific, +1.3°C) and NINO4 (western Pacific, +1.3°C) indices all being well above their El Niño thresholds. A "warm" event (El Niño) is in progress, and other ENSO indicators, such as the negative SOI and weakened Trade Winds, are consistent.

The POAMA model, run at the Bureau of Meteorology, generates a new forecast every day for the following eight months based on the latest observations. The average of the most recent 30 model runs is for the NINO3 temperature to hover just above the El Niño threshold until about May. It has temperature anomalies peaking at around +0.9°C in December, January and February.

For the 30 runs of POAMA between 27th September and 25th November, the distribution of NINO3 temperature anomalies averaged over APRIL is as follows:
below −0.8°C: 0% (Cool)
−0.8°C to zero: 5% (Neutral)
zero to +0.8°C: 35% (Neutral)
above +0.8°C: 60% (Warm)

And similarly for JULY the results are:
below −0.8°C: 6% (Cool)
−0.8°C to zero: 11% (Neutral)
zero to +0.8°C: 48% (Neutral)
above +0.8°C: 35% (Warm)


Similar data for other months can be accessed by following the "POAMA" link in the table above. The consensus from the models is for Pacific temperatures to peak around January or February followed by a modest but steady cooling trend. This is very close to how El Niño events most commonly behave. Furthermore, it's during summer that Australian rainfall patterns usually revert to something near-to or above average.

For April, seven of the twelve models predict neutral ENSO conditions, while another four show warm conditions because of a slower cooling trend. One model hasn't captured the current conditions and develops a short-lived El Niño in March 2007. By July a clear majority (6 of 8 models available) predict neutral conditions.

However, the March to June period is known as the "predictability barrier" and model skill is at its lowest predicting across this span of months. Users should therefore exercise caution when interpreting forecasts for the middle of 2007, and are encouraged to view the actual model outputs by following the web links. Frequent updates of the latest observational data with relevant commentary are available on the Bureau's ENSO Wrap-Up page.

This survey last updated 27th November 2006.
Next update expected in late December 2006.
Posted by: Johnoo

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 28/11/2006 16:16

Gday Bokkey Thanks for that always good to have the latest updates. just wondering If you Bokkery or someone else can find the history of the 97 El nino and exactly this time of the year (end of nov 1997) what were the models were forcasting the next 6 to 8 mths ( mid 1998) be intresting to see if they majority were also going for "neutral conditions" for then cos we all know what happend from may june 1998 went straight into a preety strong "La Nina" if the models were going for neutral back at the end of November in 97 there is still some hope for us that we may even go into a La Nina rather than neutral for mid next year the stronger this El nino gets the more we will increase our chances of falling into a La nina 8 to 10 months time so if anyone can find that information Boms predictions with their models were November 1997 that would be great.

Cheers thanks John.
Posted by: F5

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 28/11/2006 17:13

This is what a friend of mind said today from the states as we where talking about the ISO index.

the SOI index has gone positive 15, which is quite remarkable IMHO given the mild Nino SSTs and the approaching winter. I wonder what a good rain would do to El Nino.

I see a naked swirl to the SW of Oz and of course the W. Pac storm east of the Phillipeans and clearly there are strikes in the region, but it seems that strikes in Africa and South America have gone down from the weekend, particularly in Africa as the southern hemisphere's summer causes the thunderstorm line to drop down to the skinny part of Africa
Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 28/11/2006 19:46

Quote:
Originally posted by F5:
....
the SOI index has gone positive 15, which is quite remarkable IMHO given the mild Nino SSTs and the approaching winter. I wonder what a good rain would do to El Nino. ....
The SOI has not "gone positive" at all. The daily index reading is not the real SOI, but only a series of figures contributing to the SOI. You need to look at the 30 day and 90 day readings, which are still negative, although getting gradually higher of late. Daily pressures at Darwin have been falling gradually in recent weeks, but that would be expected at this time of the year in any event.
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 29/11/2006 23:27

Agreed RN. Nothing to get excited about.
Posted by: adon

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 30/11/2006 23:12

That being said is it not a touch weird that the 30 day average is now only -0.7? I would have thought that if this was a maturing Elnino, the SOI would be well negative. Maybe it is a little ahead of schedule??? Fingers Xed
Posted by: Johnoo

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 30/11/2006 23:26

Just a phase I think Adon would be nice if this was the end of it but the lastest anomilies SSTS show the waters are getting warmer and warmer in the central pacific and to a slower degree the eastern pacific is too getting warmer and warmer The SOI tends to fluctuate this time of year but should go back down prob to -10 or so again in the coming weeks if it doesn't by mid Decemeber then we can start being abit more optimistic that perhaps it is on it's way out but my expectation is the waters will get warmer and SOI will dip again before it improves It's expected to peak in Jan or Feb this El Nino
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 30/11/2006 23:40

Yeah nothing to get excited about imo, the SOI is a bad indicator. 90-day SOI is the acceptable index to look at, and thats at -7.3. The 30 day should drop like a fly once again to about -15 or -20 by the end of the year. The elnino is still in its maturing phase and will weaken most likely around May next year and my instinct says we'll be in a La Nina by next June.
Posted by: adon

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 01/12/2006 00:07

Geez I hope your right bokkey! We will be very nervous indeed if we have not got rain by May. everybody out here will not be able to take another failure so La nina by winter would be poetry to many farmers ears. I heard a theory the other day relating to drought breaking rains. We have a smal creek about 35km from us called the tyrrel creek. It is dry now and has been for years. A bloke who used to farm near it never considered a drought to have broken unless the tyrrel flooded. Well hope that is not far off!!!
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 01/12/2006 00:07

Does that mean I was a year too early Bokkey?
Posted by: ---

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 01/12/2006 00:10

I have been giving it a La Nina for early March for the last 3 months. Hope I'm right!! laugh

Things will turn the tables sooner or later.
Posted by: adon

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 01/12/2006 00:26

Quote:
Originally posted by runoff:
Does that mean I was a year too early Bokkey?
Hedging your bets eh runoff!! wink
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 01/12/2006 01:09

Hehe runoff, looks like it unfortunately frown . the POAMA model goes for rapid cooling along most of the pacific through late March into April next year. Will be watching that model with caution over the next coupla weeks.
Posted by: Johnoo

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 01/12/2006 01:50

Quote:
Originally posted by adon:
Geez I hope your right bokkey! We will be very nervous indeed if we have not got rain by May.
Hi Adon as bokkey mentioned The El Nino will be in a much weakened mode then and probably finished by May, it's expected to Peak in Jan or Feb history shows us the rains come back to Eastern Australia just as soon it's reached it's peak not actually when its weaken or almost finished once it's passed its peaked and starts the decline thats when the rains will return and the models are saying be either in Jan or Feb meaning they rains may be back as early as late Jan or Feb but more likely to be around March I would doubt quite highly that we would have to wait until May for the rains to return.
I hope that model is right Bokkey and it does go on a rapid cooling from March onwards be a dream come true if it did that and possibly went into a La Nina.
Posted by: AussieMark79

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 01/12/2006 08:56

Quote:
Originally posted by Bokkey:
Hehe runoff, looks like it unfortunately frown . the POAMA model goes for rapid cooling along most of the pacific through late March into April next year. Will be watching that model with caution over the next coupla weeks.
the mean of the recent forcasts of that model is neutral by June 2007

by July 2007 the % are

Neutral: 60.9%
La Nina: 5.3%
El Nino: 33.8%
Posted by: Johnoo

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 01/12/2006 10:41

Hi Guys. Is it just me or does anyone else notice in El Nino years the highs are more stronger much larger than normal further south of Australia and then move North East into the north Tasman Sea? And by the time there out in the Tasman sea there just east of the Sydney no wonder its hard to rain in alot of areas, Highs block the cold fronts being so far south bring in alot of easterlies thru Sth West WA which keeps there rain down blocks out any North Cloud bands forming erodes that idea so hardly any moisture coming in from the North west which explains why South Australia has been so dry last 6 months same with Victoria and Tasmania lack of cloud bands and cold fronts further south then usual when they finally move east these highs they move North too to be off the North coast of NSW and weaken too which doesn't allow you tradtional trade moist easterlies to be pumped for days on end on the Qld coast and North and central coast of NSW much weaker than normal so we can't get any low level moisture in from the North East either. In a normal year and particulary a "La Nina" years highs are further north over southern WA in the winter and spring then head east or south east to be finally positioned in the south Tasman sea so allows cold fronts to come thru and interact with moisture from the north with the fronts too and allows the moist easterlies along the Qld coast and NSW coast to move in and feed into the southern systems is it just me or has anyone else noticed this too? I don't recall one high pressure system this winter/spring not sprinting off to the North east after it passes Tasmania & Victoria all of them have this season.
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 01/12/2006 10:54

Whats most annoying is how the tropical lows/cyclones keep forming out east of the coral sea and always regain that westerly wind burst. So this increases the warmer SSTs in the central pacific, thus heralds in more lows/TCs along the very strong ITCZ, which herald in more WWBs, which herald in more el nino, and that process just repeats itself with the strong easterly trades sitting JUST north of the equator. Its just the same old story, I can't see us ever escaping from this elnino pattern. On the other hand, the monsoon trough moving south might just save us there and give us some room to work with.
Posted by: Windee

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 01/12/2006 11:48

I would not be surprised to see NO cyclones forming in the Coral Sea at all this season. Good action east of 160deg, but nothing west, at least until 140deg.. I am not sure if its ever happened before, I could not find any records of a empty cyclone season for the CS, but believe this year will add something to the record books.
Posted by: Johnoo

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 01/12/2006 11:56

We will get 1 or 2 Windee forming west of 160deg even if it's as late as Feb March but it will happen wink
Posted by: Willoughby

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 01/12/2006 12:36

This El Nino is just starting to bring the SOI right down to the depths of '97/'98.. at a steeper rate too by the looks...
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/bulletin/figt2.gif

This aint good.
Posted by: RainyDaze

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 01/12/2006 16:44

What does this mean Willoughby?
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 01/12/2006 17:13

It basically means lower chance of above average rainfall in eastern parts of australia. Even the people in the top end are feeling the effects which is unusual as they usually get average rains during the wet season anyway. El ninos generally have a less effect on our rainfall anomalies during summer so we can hope we get something in the coming months. Also - the stronger this el nino gets, the better the chance of a stronger la nina to follow, you saw what happend after the 97/98 el nino, flooding across the tropics during the wet and drier months of the year.
Posted by: Johnoo

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 01/12/2006 17:22

Yes I agree Bokkey I don't mind it getting stronger this time of the year anyway cos has less affect in summer the rainfall in Australia. The stronger it gets the more it increases of a La Nina event after it Gove girl so this happening ain't such a bad thing getting stronger at this point of the year it was expected to anyway get stronger this Month and reach it's peak Jan or Feb it will get stronger before it weakens.
Posted by: Johnoo

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 01/12/2006 17:33

Don't be suprised guys if this El nino goes beyond all expecations which is what I have been thinking for a while I think by the end of it all we will remember this El nino as a "Moderate to strong event" definetly stronger than 2002 as strong if not stronger than 94/95 and not that far behind 97/98 one, it was only 6 months ago all the models were forcasting neutral condtions for the Pacific the waters were expected to be slightly warmer than normal in the central and eastern Pacific but under El Nino thresholds It's amazing how they got it wrong and how things have changed and how much this El nino has gotten has grown and gotten stronger just shows you can't rely on the models 6 months out somtimes thats why theres still some hope for La nina later next year even though there pointing at neutral again in 6 months time.
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 01/12/2006 19:07

History shows that we are a very good chance for flood rains in Feb/March. Out of the past 15 Elnino events, 14 delivered relief rains in late summer. The exception was in 65/66 when the rains didn't arrive until August.
Posted by: Subtropical

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 01/12/2006 19:57

Quote:
Originally posted by runoff:
History shows that we are a very good chance for flood rains in Feb/March. Out of the past 15 Elnino events, 14 delivered relief rains in late summer. The exception was in 65/66 when the rains didn't arrive until August.
I'm eagerly awaiting the possibility of receiving substantial rain during phases 4,5 & 6 of this December MJO wave. As you all know we have a rising SOI and a full moon on the 5th as well. These three factors should bring rain should they not? "Shouldn't they"?

There is a front predicted to bring storms to SE Queensland on Sunday. This might well be just the beginning.

If that doesn't happen.... A lot of graziers, cattle breeders are going to be stuffed in my part of the coast. Some types of supplement feeds are already out of stock at many feed suppliers.

Runoff, I sure hope we can rely on "Plan B" as you describe for "flood rains".

What parts of the country historically received these flood rains you mention and what weather systems brought them on, cyclones, MJO?
Posted by: AussieMark79

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 01/12/2006 23:38

3 more weeks of the current ssts and this el nino will reach a 3 month period of +1.0C anomality across Nino 3.4
Posted by: Subtropical

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 02/12/2006 00:06

Quote:
Originally posted by AussieMark79:
3 more weeks of the current ssts and this el nino will reach a 3 month period of +1.0C anomality across Nino 3.4
AussieMark79, Can you elaborate on that information a little? smile

Hey, btw, I used to live on Lake Macquarie. :wave:
Posted by: adon

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 02/12/2006 00:16

Quote:
Originally posted by runoff:
History shows that we are a very good chance for flood rains in Feb/March. Out of the past 15 Elnino events, 14 delivered relief rains in late summer. The exception was in 65/66 when the rains didn't arrive until August.
Correct me if I am wrong but I thought that this Elnino was very unusual for the time of year that it developed. That being the case is it wise to look at past events to predict a time for the break? I was of the opinion that this was "uncharted territory" as far as this was a very rare occurance and one could not be sure of what will happen.
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 02/12/2006 00:18

I haven't looked at any charts Subtropical. I was repeating something said by BoM a few weeks ago. They made reference to Nth East Queensland, with the southern states following with winter rains.
Apparently Elnino has little bearing on rainfall in the latter part of summer up here.
Posted by: Johnoo

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 02/12/2006 00:36

I was under that impression too Adon but few weeks ago i rang the climate forecaster at the BOM here in Melbourne and I asked them that very question they told me this El nino wasn't really all that much differnt in developing only a month or 2 later than your typical El nino, the SOI starts to take a dive in March or April when an El Nino begins if you notice this year in 2006 it starts to dive from April/May onwards so really not all that much differance there, they also mentioned to me that starting a little later it doesn't really affect when it usually peaks which is Jan or Feb in most cases anyway, if i recall we had a weak la nina earlier this year which only lasted 5 to 6 months usually La ninas like El ninos go longer than that so starting 2 months later than normal doesn't mean will finish 2 months later smile

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/soihtm1.shtml

If you check this link the table look at the recent El ninos in the last 20-25 years or so notice in 82 the SOI starts falling from March onwards and goes in the negatives in April, 91 El nino goes into the negatives in March, the 94 El Nino March goes into the Negatives, 97 March again goes into the negatives 2002 March once again goes into the negatives this time they took a Dive in May but were on there way down from Mid April onwards this year in 2006 so in the long run This El Nino isn't all that different to any other El Nino.
Posted by: AussieMark79

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 02/12/2006 00:44

Quote:
Originally posted by Subtropical:
Quote:
Originally posted by AussieMark79:
[b] 3 more weeks of the current ssts and this el nino will reach a 3 month period of +1.0C anomality across Nino 3.4
AussieMark79, Can you elaborate on that information a little? smile

Hey, btw, I used to live on Lake Macquarie. :wave: [/b]
to classify el nino they average the weekly ssts across Nino 3.4

the current 13 week dataset is

Quote:
2006082820060903 0.72
2006090420060910 0.72
2006091120060917 0.79
2006091820060924 0.81
2006092520061001 0.70
2006100220061008 0.64
2006100920061015 0.95
2006101620061022 0.87
2006102320061029 0.97
2006103020061105 0.91
2006110620061112 1.09
2006111320061119 1.28
2006112020061126 1.31
so if Nino 3.4 maintains its current level for another 3 weeks the 3 month average will be +1.0C anomality which would of been the first time since December 2002 - February 2003 when the 3 month average was +1.1C anomality
Posted by: AussieMark79

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 02/12/2006 00:49

Quote:
Originally posted by adon:
Quote:
Originally posted by runoff:
[b] History shows that we are a very good chance for flood rains in Feb/March. Out of the past 15 Elnino events, 14 delivered relief rains in late summer. The exception was in 65/66 when the rains didn't arrive until August.
Correct me if I am wrong but I thought that this Elnino was very unusual for the time of year that it developed. That being the case is it wise to look at past events to predict a time for the break? I was of the opinion that this was "uncharted territory" as far as this was a very rare occurance and one could not be sure of what will happen. [/b]
recent El Ninos to come together in August-October periods were

1969, 1976, 1977

so if your looking for a trend in regards to SOI check out March onwards on

1970, 1977 and 1978
Posted by: Johnoo

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 02/12/2006 11:01

I have observed and studied the 24 El Ninos when they break and bring rains since 1900 in the Bom site in Australia and with what I have heard about this El nino and when it's meant to get to its peak going by these factors and the History of the other 24 El Ninos I have come up with some sort of % for the next 9 months when the first of the rainfall patterns will change in Australia meaning showing signs of getting wetter again signs of the 1st of the rains getting fairy widespread substantial Average to above Average rains.

This is my estimate of when the pattern will change:

2006
December: 10%
2007
January: 30%
February: 50%
March: 60%
April: 40%
May: 25%
June: 15%
July 5%
August: 2%
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 02/12/2006 11:09

good stuff anti! I wouldve estimated similarly except id probably go for a better chance of a break during April or May although i bloody hope we get that break sooner than later, this boring wx is driving me nuts mad
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 02/12/2006 11:23

WHilst we are deficient as far as rainfall is concerned, there are some very unusual goings on with this event. As I have mentioned already, the highs are anchored a long way south. Ordinarily in an El nino we would have strong Nth Westerlies blowing right through spring/ Early summer. This event is giving us an exact opposite with the occassional shower thrown in.

If the highs persist until April I would be fairly confident of some excellent rainfall events.
Posted by: rainfan

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 02/12/2006 11:29

Quote:
Originally posted by runoff:
WHilst we are deficient as far as rainfall is concerned, there are some very unusual goings on with this event. As I have mentioned already, the highs are anchored a long way south. Ordinarily in an El nino we would have strong Nth Westerlies blowing right through spring/ Early summer. This event is giving us an exact opposite with the occassional shower thrown in.

If the highs persist until April I would be fairly confident of some excellent rainfall events.
Yeah, agree with you RUNOFF. I can remember the period of March-Nov 2002 when it was a very dry period here in Syd, we had a lot of dry and westerly winds weather, winter was quite mild, can remember walking around in the afternoons without a jumper. This El Nino event is a bit different, it has brought many cloudy days to Sydney, with less rain *cry* and temps werent that warm compared to Sept/October.
Posted by: Hakatere

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 02/12/2006 11:30

The GFS extended model runs are showing the usual highs continuing well into December as well.
Posted by: Johnoo

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 02/12/2006 14:58

That doesn't suprise me Hakatere considering the El nino is still getting stronger. I agree with you runoff and rainfan unlike the winter and spring of 2002 the highs have been orginating way south of the continent this time round allowing strong southerly surges to develop to the east of the highs up the east coast. In 2002 in Victoria and Tasmania we had more of westerly wind set up thru winter and spring which allowed alot of light wind days with a westerly tendacy to happen through the NSW & Sydney areas making it warmer and sunnier it shows in the rainfall patterns too, South western Tasmania was wetter in 2002 (above average to well above average) unlike this time round where rainfall been average and the far south coast of Victoria (west coast) had average rainfall on the coast there during that El ninoin 2002 the same area this time round for 2006 has "lowest on record" winter/spring rainfall because the highs were further north allowing the westerlies to come through bring in more frequent westerly cold fronts with them bit further north. At the same time Northern rivers in NSW been wetter this time round than 2002 for partly the same reason I would think, the big highs being further north over NSW in 2002 allowed less rain through that area where this time round been more southerlies along the NSW coast when highs come through bring in showers from time to time on the coast rather than South westerlies or westerlies which tend to bring mild to warm dry weather thru the entire coast of NSW in that set up in winter and spring.
Posted by: nitso

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 02/12/2006 15:41

The BOM have definately backed off from their initial predictions of above average late summer rainfall. Almost all of QLD is now expecting average rainfall except for the NQ region from Bowen - Ingham and about 300kms inland who are expecting below average rainfall. The thoughts of the el nino breaking down anytime in the next couple of months is now out of the BOM prognostic thinking. As has been stated the el nino is still gaining strength and is yet to peak. I can't imagine the 3 cyclones in the West Pacific have done anything to alleviate the situation, in fact they have prob strengthened the phenomenon with an increase in cloud around the dateline.
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 02/12/2006 16:58

The beauty of these events is they are "usually" timely in breaking down and delivering rain. Let's hope this one is not the exception.

I don't take any notice of long term forecasts, no matter where they originate. Things can change very quickly and understanding the climate is very much in it's infancy.

The section of coastline from Bowen to Ingham most probably misses out on rains coming across from the north west. A higher than average Indian ocean temp will help offset the el nino for at least some of Australia.
Posted by: AussieMark79

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 02/12/2006 17:02

what phenomenon is it that impacts Perths summers with more heat?

is it el nino or is it to do with Indian Ocean SSTS?
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 02/12/2006 19:25

I wouldn't think either. More likely a cold Indian ocean. Then you'd be under a dry air influence.
Posted by: Johnoo

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 02/12/2006 19:58

I don't know if anyone remembers but Perth last year had a cool spring and cool Summer especially first part of Summer I think December was the coolest on record off the top of my head which went against the tide off the rest of Australia of having a very warm spring and Hot December for 2005, if you Notice in the 1st link the Cooler than normal SSTS off the Coast off South West Australia in the southern Indian Ocean neally up to 3 degrees below average at one point In Late November and into December and the southern Ocean too to the south of Perth was cooler.

If you click on this SST animation (1st link) you will see what I mean the 2nd and 3rd links is the season Wrap up of Spring in Perth for 2005 and 3rd link is the Wrap up of Perths weather for December for 2005 and if you notice both much cooler than normal infact December Perth had it's coolest ever on record! Maximum Average temp is 29.1 c normally in perth for December last year it was the lowest average Max ever 23.7c broke the record of the coolest December of 1922 of 24.2c

So to answer that question Aussiemark I don't think the SSTS have much of an impact in the Indian ocean around Broome and West and North of Broome but they certainly do in the southern Indian ocean and the southern Ocean in and around Perth itself Hope this helps.

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst_olr/sst_anim.shtml

http://www.bom.gov.au/announcements/media_releases/wa/20051201b.shtml

http://www.bom.gov.au/announcements/media_releases/wa/20060103.shtml
Posted by: Johnoo

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 02/12/2006 20:13

http://www.bom.gov.au/announcements/media_releases/wa/20060201b.shtml

And this is the link for the wrap up for January 2006 which continues the cool trend and below average temps from September to January perth was cooler than normal 5 months in a row which is very hard to do these days in Australia hard enough to get 1 month below average temps let alone 5 in a row! With a record breaking Coolest December thrown in the middle and coolest first 2 months of summer in 80 odd years amazing considering were meant to be warming up just shows the below average SSTS off the south west coast played a huge part being so cool at the time of the year in Perths weather.
Posted by: AussieMark79

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 02/12/2006 20:30

last summer was Perths coldest since 1959/60 summer thats quite significant

also Perth only cracked 40C once last summer been a while since that happened
Posted by: Johnoo

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 02/12/2006 20:42

Yep as a whole Spring and Summer in Perth last year was much cooler than normal given the times we live in today that is very significant.
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 03/12/2006 15:27

Its just the way the highs and lows were positioned during last summer. Very deep lows dominated the bight (very unusual for summer) blowing constant W/SW winds onto perth which cooled it down significantly. 90% of the country has been getting month after month of record breaking temps, so i wouldnt discount further warming just because perth had a "cooler" than avg run of months. When that little part of the country is by any extent cooler, expect the rest of the country to swelter as those SW winds move across the interior, pick up the heat, and drag it down into the north, eastern and southern states. Hopefully though this december will be more of a summer type pattern with easterly winds on the east coast and the usual NE'ly winds in WA giving perth the normal summer dosage.
Posted by: Johnoo

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 03/12/2006 22:16

I agree with you bokkey the highs were positioned further north but wouldn't be the first summer in the last 50 years that highs have been further north than normal I would say it's happend dozen times at least In the last 50 years a scenario like that but Perth hasn't had a extremely cool December like that breaking records, picking up the constant westerlies off the Ocean being "Cooler than normal" it made even the westerly cooler than normal over Perth and through that district for spring till mid summer so not only were they getting regular W-SW winds instead of North Easters but W-SW wind for that time of the year was cooler than normal too hence why the extreme Huge differance of average temps it wasn't just a degree or 2 cooler than normal December but up to 5 and half degrees less thats phenomnial, the westerly plus the cooler water that it was blowing off would had a huge part to do with it.
Speaking of North Easters Perth can have the North easter right through this summer as long as in the south East in Victoria and NSW we get constant moist east to south easterly winds with lows to the north or north east of us bringing summer rains. One can only dream hey . cool
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 03/12/2006 23:49

Quote:
Originally posted by Bokkey:
Its just the way the highs and lows were positioned during last summer. Very deep lows dominated the bight (very unusual for summer) blowing constant W/SW winds onto perth which cooled it down significantly. 90% of the country has been getting month after month of record breaking temps, so i wouldnt discount further warming just because perth had a "cooler" than avg run of months. When that little part of the country is by any extent cooler, expect the rest of the country to swelter as those SW winds move across the interior, pick up the heat, and drag it down into the north, eastern and southern states. Hopefully though this december will be more of a summer type pattern with easterly winds on the east coast and the usual NE'ly winds in WA giving perth the normal summer dosage.
Not that unusual Bokkey .Lows are reasonably common off the southern continent in summer. Who could forget the Sydney to Hobart a few years back. I lived in Melbourne for nearly 30 years and those lows in the bight can drop the temp from 40 plus down to around 10 degs in an afternoon.
Posted by: Johnoo

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 04/12/2006 19:56

Quote:
Originally posted by AussieMark79:
what phenomenon is it that impacts Perths summers with more heat?

is it el nino or is it to do with Indian Ocean SSTS?
Here is a link/Map of the warm ssts in around Perth in Januray 2000 it is the exact opposite of end of 2005 when they were 3 degrees below average the waters in the Southern Indian ocean and Southern ocean were 2-3 degrees above average in Januray 2000 with the help of the weak la nina (which didn''t have much impact anywhere else in the country for the month of Januray) in the Pacific at the time and the very warm ssts off the SW coast of Australia there created abudance of rain in normally a very dry part of WA at that time of year! Normally Perth averages 9mm of rain for Januray but in 2000 it had a whopping 116mm! Making it the wettest January on record abudance of moisture and upper troughs coming through bringing in the rains from the west & north west As you can see with the much cooler ssts off the south and south west coast of WA Perth broke a record of having the coolest December on record in 2005 and 5 months of below average temps, instead with very warm ssts and the help of a weak La nina combined it helped to bring in alot heavy rain to Perth and surrounding districts, in the summer of 99-2000 it was also the 3rd wettest on record! With the help of Januarys rains.
First link shows the ssts. The 2nd link shows the rainfall Deciles in Januray 2000 and even though inland areas of WA has been getting wetter and wetter last 10 years the south west coast has been getting drier and drier as the inland parts being getting wetter so for Perth and surrounding districts to have all this rain at a time when rainfall has been decreasing over that area in the past 10-20 years and in January too normally the driest month of the year there it is remarkable! Shows how the ssts have quite a bit of an impact around that area when they get to 2-3 degrees warmer or cooler either way which does not happen often there the waters getting so warm or so cool normally the ssts there are within a degree either way.

http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/ocean/results/SST_anals/SSTA_20000130.gif


http://img207.imageshack.us/img207/4681/rainfallrelative2000cj4.gif
Posted by: AussieMark79

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 04/12/2006 23:36

this weeks El Nino 3.4 index is out and its 1.25C anomality (down slightly on last week but not much)

Quote:
2006090420060910 0.72
2006091120060917 0.79
2006091820060924 0.81
2006092520061001 0.70
2006100220061008 0.64
2006100920061015 0.95
2006101620061022 0.87
2006102320061029 0.97
2006103020061105 0.91
2006110620061112 1.09
2006111320061119 1.28
2006112020061126 1.31
2006112720061203 1.25
the 3 month average anomality is +0.95C
Posted by: Macca-wx

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 05/12/2006 10:06

Profound statement in the news today....

"The drought has taken a turn for the worst in the past four months. The National Climate Centre (NCC) says the drought has intensified, especially during November, as a result of a severe lack of rain and hot temperatures."

Well paint me green and call me Gumby. The drought has worsened due to lack of rain? You're kidding!!!

I really hope this was a media misinterpretation of what the NCC had to say because if that's all they can come up with then bugger me.

Macca
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 05/12/2006 13:05

Well... lack of rain results in drought. Whats wrong with that statement. Unless your holding that against the fact SE QLD received recent rains? The recent rains haven't really helped.
Posted by: Johnoo

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 05/12/2006 14:14

Down here in Victoria and Melbourne after a dry winter we have had our 3rd driest Spring on record so I don't see what the problem in that statement is Macca it's preety much dead right it has taken a turn for the worse from late winter onwards especially in the South East of the country
Posted by: Storm

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 05/12/2006 14:21

Quote:
Originally posted by Macca-wx:
Profound statement in the news today....

"The drought has taken a turn for the worst in the past four months. The National Climate Centre (NCC) says the drought has intensified, especially during November, as a result of a severe lack of rain and hot temperatures."

Well paint me green and call me Gumby. The drought has worsened due to lack of rain? You're kidding!!!

I really hope this was a media misinterpretation of what the NCC had to say because if that's all they can come up with then bugger me.

Macca
LOL Macca, Paint me green and call me gumby!!! HAHAHA

LMAO Like Drrrrr really lack of rain has made the drought worse (who would of known) hahaha, its really a sad statement if that's all they have to say about it !
Posted by: Macca-wx

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 05/12/2006 14:29

I thought the whole idea of a drought was the fact that it didn't rain. They are simply stating the bleeding obvious..."the drought has gotten worse as it didn't rain". No university degree required to work that one out...

A better statement from the NCC would be that "Below average rainfall in November has seen the drought conditions continue across eastern Australia. Conditions now rival that of the 2002 drought."

Maybe they just need a public relations person...
Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 05/12/2006 14:40

I think that if one reads the sentence as a whole it makes better sense. "...as a result of of a SEVERE lack of rain AND HOT TEMPERATURES", rather just indulging in some nit-picking. They are not simply saying that a lack of rain is the cause of drought. The SEVERE deficiency and the HOT temperatures are obviously the relevant parts of the equation.
Posted by: Johnoo

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 05/12/2006 14:56

And depends where u live Macca its beyond rivaling it down here it's offically worse than the 2002 in Melbourne and regional Victoria like I mentioned in and earlier post we have offically had our driest winter-spring in Melbourne in 151 years of reocrds less rain compared to the winter-spring in 2002 and less rain of winter-spring of 1982 and that was a shocker so thats how grim things are down here. In Qld especially though the South East of QLD the drought hasn't be as severe with This El nino not to the stage of records being broken anyway.
Posted by: Subtropical

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 05/12/2006 15:57

Quote:
Originally posted by Bokkey:
Well... lack of rain results in drought. Whats wrong with that statement. Unless your holding that against the fact SE QLD received recent rains? The recent rains haven't really helped.
I'm happy! :cheers:

At the moment, considering these conditions, I'm very happy with the 57 mm in Nov and the 55 mm last Sunday. Thank goodness for the pasture, otherwise I was just about to pay for a truckload for round bales. smile
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 05/12/2006 16:01

I agree with rainy night, its the descriptive words in that statement that matter ie. "Severe" deficiency and "Hot" temperatures. But i also agree with those who say its a bloody obvious statement since a kid in the 4th grade would be able to figure that out. Just hope those experienced forecasters are right about 2007 being a wet year. Id really love to see it rain in tons and not stop until all our dams are filled. Once that happens it can do what it wants..
Posted by: AussieMark79

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 05/12/2006 19:28

just because its dry this year does not mean it will automatically be wet next year.
not meaning to be pessimistic

look at 1991-1995 for example
Posted by: Johnoo

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 05/12/2006 20:18

"just because its dry this year does not mean it will automatically be wet next year.
not meaning to be pessimistic look at 1991-1995 for example" from Aussiemark79.


I agree Mark but while it was dry in Qld in that period was raining alot of the time in the Southern states in that same period exception being 1994. 1992 and 93 were extremly wet over a wide area over Southern Australia in so it wasn't a drought that affected all over Australia mainly eastern Qld and NE NSW unlike the drought of 2002 and to a degree this drought where is has taken more of a grip in most areas cept inland areas of WA. In 91 there were reasonable rains through the southern states and good widespread rains thru good parts of inland tropical Australia as eastern Qld was dry. In 92 and 93 saw excellent rain trough WA, SA southern NSW, Victoria and Tasmania while east Qld remained dry I specifically remember it was our 2nd wettest Spring in Melbourne in 92 and third wettest Spring in Melbourne in 93 so the El nino had little affect over southern Australia through that period infact you would of thought it was a strong la nina looking at these rainfall deciles. In 1994 the El nino redeveloped after being in the weak phase in 91 and 92 and the below average rainfall spread through most of Australia but the summer of 94/95 that started breaking down through most states but Eastern Qld and parts of the coast of NSW remained dry until Mid 95 while it was dry up north through that period (91-95) it was very wet down south thats why the last 2 El ninos have been different through eastern Australia cos it has had below average rainfall through most areas eastern, northern and southern Australia much more widespread and more severe too so something has got to give can't continue being dry in such a huge area like this for much longer when the El nino breaks down, anyway thats my theory.

Here is a few links of the deciles of the 1991-95 period for Australia

first link 1991 decile rainfall, 2nd link combined 24 month period of deciles rainfall for 1992-1993, 3rd link 1994, 4th link 1995.

http://img149.imageshack.us/img149/4443/rainfallrelative12mth19py5.gif

http://img134.imageshack.us/img134/5379/rainfallrelative24mth92og9.gif

http://img293.imageshack.us/img293/9604/rainfallrelative12mth94od5.gif

http://img240.imageshack.us/img240/3563/rainfallrelative12mth95jq8.gif
Posted by: Johnoo

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 06/12/2006 21:39

it seems like the SOI is dropping again preety much as i expected was -16 30-day value at the end of August -5 September, -15 October, rose sharply to -1 in November 30-day value November 30th and the 30-day value taken December the 4th was -4 i'm expecting it to drop further throughout December as it goes in line with the gradual warming of the SSTS throughout November also the sub-surface waters below 100 metres have also increased in November so shows it will get slightly stronger before it weakens, it is now at the start of the "Maturing phase" The last report that came out today on the BOM site.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
Posted by: KevD

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 06/12/2006 22:12

The SSTs recently have shown a real weakening of the El Nino from that perspective - just look at the temps off the coast of S America...Was happy to see that happening but then looked at the changes in sub surface temps across the Pacific in the last month and there is a huge area of significantly higher than average temps currently heading straight for the S American coast....Rising up from a few 100 metres down and then likely to spread back west along the surface. Assuming I am reading it right get ready for a significant strengthening of this El Nino in the weeks ahead frown
Posted by: Johnoo

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 06/12/2006 22:39

Yep Kevin thats what i was getting at frown it will get stronger before it gets weaker
Posted by: AussieMark79

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 07/12/2006 11:53

also remember Nino 3.4 is the main area



not neccesarily South AMerica coast we should be looking at but 5N-5S, 120W-170W
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 07/12/2006 15:55

I wouldnt be getting to worried...id like to see this El nino now strengthen as much as it likes, we have entered the time frame where the effects of El nino on australia are at their lowest, and this probability will only drop as we move into Jan and Feb. This is the only time of the year that im actually for el nino for this reason and for the reason that next years La nina has a chance of being just as strong when she returns (see-saw effect).

Another thing ive noticed looking at the global SST anomaly map is that the southern hemisphere waters altogether are starting to become warmer than the northern hemisphere waters for the first time since around 2002/2003. It is finally switching in our favour.. hopefully this trend continues because if it does, prepare for a very wet 2007 across the entire continent (occasionally exclude TAS).
Posted by: Johnoo

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 07/12/2006 21:02

Hope so Bokkey. I'm gonna take a rough guess and say by new yrs eve the SOI be at -13 be sumwhere inbetween -10 to -15 anyway just a guess but seems to be the way it will go
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 07/12/2006 21:36

Quote:
Originally posted by Kevin:
The SSTs recently have shown a real weakening of the El Nino from that perspective - just look at the temps off the coast of S America...Was happy to see that happening but then looked at the changes in sub surface temps across the Pacific in the last month and there is a huge area of significantly higher than average temps currently heading straight for the S American coast....Rising up from a few 100 metres down and then likely to spread back west along the surface. Assuming I am reading it right get ready for a significant strengthening of this El Nino in the weeks ahead frown
That is unfortunately the most likely scenario.
Posted by: Johnoo

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 07/12/2006 22:29

Not all doom and gloom though Runoff like bokkey mentioned strong El nino or weak El nino summer is the time of the year has least affect on us and the more we get into summer the less likely it will have an affect infact our rain chances will increase as summer goes on thats the history of most El ninos and by Autumn should be breaking down so hopefully more good rain into Autumn. And also the stronger it gets the more it will increase our chance of getting a La nina first then perhaps be fairy strong too one step at a time though. Hopefully it will swing this way.
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 08/12/2006 21:28

the USA government agency forecasts the El nino to peak during the northern hemisphere winter (SH summer) and gradually vanish by spring (our autumn). This site is very useful as it offers some graphical features to make people understand the dynamics of the phenomena a lot easier. Its worth a look:

http://www.usatoday.com/weather/climate/2006-12-07-el-nino-strengthens_x.htm
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 09/12/2006 11:06

Interesting that article mentions that elnino causes drought in the Philipines. Some 1000 people were killed by mud slides this week from typhoon Durian. Just shows that it isn't always constant in how it affects our weather.
Posted by: Mick10

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 09/12/2006 11:58

and they have another Runoff, TS Utor is expected to hit central Phillipines tomorrow.
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 09/12/2006 15:01

Yeah, but dont forget that EVERY el nino is different just like every snow flake. Even i get myself confused there from time to time thinking that each el nino will have the same or similar effects, but this is not true. Having El nino present means a higher CHANCE of drought in the phillipines and here but doesnt guarantee it. So in this instance it is rare to see so many typhoons battering the country during this episode.

Back to australia now.. here's the latest SST map for the coast off NSW. I noticed a nice warm tongue extending right down the coast with some healthy 23-24C patches up north. I noticed it gets rather humid here in Sydney when we get those E/NE'ly sea breezes like today and its not hard to see why. Last season the warm tongue didnt creep southwards til around late Dec/early Jan and that was during a weak La Nina confused . This will be a valuable moisture source for upcoming rain/storm systems forecast to hit VIC, NSW and possibly QLD:

Posted by: adon

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 10/12/2006 17:24

Looking that the water vapor image from today I think you can see some evidence that the SSTs are getting to the temps needed to pump moisture into oz.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/shemi/images/xxwvgms5e.GIF
Posted by: AussieMark79

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 11/12/2006 18:10

El Nino has rebounded this week

the 3 month data is now

Quote:
2006091120060917 0.79
2006091820060924 0.81
2006092520061001 0.70
2006100220061008 0.64
2006100920061015 0.95
2006101620061022 0.87
2006102320061029 0.97
2006103020061105 0.91
2006110620061112 1.09
2006111320061119 1.28
2006112020061126 1.31
2006112720061203 1.25
2006120420061210 1.31
the 3 month average is +0.991
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 11/12/2006 18:34

No surprises there Mark. I don't think it has peaked yet.
Posted by: Squid

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 11/12/2006 19:00

when do you think that Elnino will peak?
Posted by: Johnoo

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 11/12/2006 19:04

Quote:
Originally posted by AntiCyclone:
Hope so Bokkey. I'm gonna take a rough guess and say by new yrs eve the SOI be at -13 be sumwhere inbetween -10 to -15 anyway just a guess but seems to be the way it will go
Seems to be on track getting stronger and SOI continues to drop
Posted by: Johnoo

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 11/12/2006 19:08

Quote:
Originally posted by squid:
when do you think that Elnino will peak?
Late Jan or early Feb we should see the first initial signs of its slow death this El Nino Squid
Posted by: AussieMark79

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 11/12/2006 20:00

around January-February
Posted by: Squid

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 11/12/2006 22:29

Well roll on January I cant wait to see this thing start to weaken and cheers for the info
Posted by: Mick10

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 11/12/2006 22:40

tomorrows tropical climate update will be intresting, the BOM were expecting an increase in tropical activity in the nth australian region but didnt expect the monsoon to kick in until the next MJO passes in another 30-40days which would be well into January.
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 12/12/2006 00:19

They usually die around then ,but there is always the risk of a back to back event. Rare as it may be, it isn't totally without chance. Wouldn't that be a bummer.
Posted by: AussieMark79

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 12/12/2006 00:35

back to back el ninos is not unprecedented

look at 1991-1995 for example
Posted by: alby_14

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 12/12/2006 00:58

MJO was quite weak during phases 4 & 5 recently and had only a little effect on our weather. According to BoM's diagram it is in a very weak phase 2 atm. Maybe it can increase and kick off a stronger phase beginning now and we could see a return of the MJO in short succession to the latest one. Heres a link to the BoM diagram. Anyone feel free to correct me on my interpretation.
http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaff/matw/maproom/RMM/phase.Last40days.gif
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 12/12/2006 10:20

Never did understand that chart!
Posted by: Johnoo

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 12/12/2006 10:55

Quote:
Originally posted by runoff:
They usually die around then ,but there is always the risk of a back to back event. Rare as it may be, it isn't totally without chance. Wouldn't that be a bummer.
Hi Runoff. In regard to your comment I would like to say considering we had an El nino in 2002-03 and "almost" had an El nino mid late developing 2004 when the central pacific warmed right up and were just below El nino threshold and now the 2006 El nino I would highly doubt it in the next 12 months will be it this scenario again it will be 4 El ninos OR the brink of El ninos in 5 years I can't see that happening.
Posted by: Johnoo

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 12/12/2006 11:11

I know this may be right field but anyone considered if the French nuclear testings may have had an affect on the Pacific basin and surrounding areas like Australia?? ie create more frequent El Ninos and droughts? Except the La Nina of 1998/99 on the back of a very strong El nino in 1997 every other year since then has been either El nino or close to El nino except for 2000 & 2005 which were neutral. (weak la nina end of 2005 & weak La nina start of 2000) Years of El ninos or close to it 1997 & start of 98, 2001, 2002 start of 2003, mid late 2004, mid 2006 to start of 2007 French testings were done in May 1996 in the Pacific several of them, strangley enough was a few months after this South east Australia and South west Australia began its long dry weather and drought after drought. What do other thinks?
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 12/12/2006 11:46

I wouldn't rule anything out. The fires over Indonesia may be a contributor also. Lack of solar activity. Broad scale clearing along the equator. Many things may be part of the big picture AC.
Posted by: Subtropical

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 12/12/2006 11:58

It's gotta be John Howard. :p
Posted by: Keith

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 12/12/2006 12:00

Nuclear tests would have no effect at all. For one thing, the energy released by a single thunderstorm (let alone the hundreds of storms going off all over the globe at any one moment) is far more than a single nuclear test, even if it was above the ground.

People used to worry back in the early 1960s about the effect of the atmospheric nuclear tests that the French were carrying out then. I'm certain nothing ever happened to the weather as a result.
Posted by: AussieMark79

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 12/12/2006 12:50

it could be just phases

1950s were dominated by La nina events
1950-51, 1954-57,

as were 1970s
1970-72, 1973-1976

the 1990s were a decade dominated by el ninos
1991-95, 1997-98

after that el nino came the 1998-2001 La Nina event
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 12/12/2006 13:18

Albeit weak. I don't see how heating the atmosphere with a nuclear explosion could have no effect at all.
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 12/12/2006 13:19

Stand at ground zero and I promise you that you will be "dried out".
Posted by: Tempest

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 12/12/2006 13:33

Keith, how cetain are you, have you got any evidence, data, etc to back yourself.

It is true, a nuclear explosion is no where near as powerful as a thunderstorm, however, thunderstoms create natural chemicals for living things, water, and the ozone layer.

Man made energy has never made good contributions to mother nature.

I would not be surprised if man made nuclear activity in the pacific has affected the weather in our region.
Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 12/12/2006 14:14

Nuclear explosions are obviously not good for the environment. However, it seems to be drawing a long bow to suggest that they would have any affect on the weather, especially in the long term. Surely, the impact of these explosions, however bad, is only localised and temporary. For any widespread and lasting effect on such things as el nino, surely there would need to be some impact on ocean currents and atmospheric circulations, and that seems to be far-fetched. During the 1950's there were British nuclear tests conducted in the Australian outback, and I think people at the time blamed them for all sorts of things from radio/tv interfence to the weather. I don't think any scientists have ever been reported as having evidence of nuclear caused el ninos and droughts. Quite to the contrary, there were a number of episodes of flooding around the country, and otherwise, I think the weather in those years was relatively normal (if there is such a thing as normal weather).
Posted by: Tempest

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 12/12/2006 14:18

Give me proof/data and I'll shut up.
Posted by: Craig Arthur

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 12/12/2006 14:30

It's easy to sit there and say "You prove me wrong" - I suggest you do a scale analysis of the energy volumes involved and then get back to us. It should be up to you to prove the status quo is incorrect, not the other way around.
Posted by: AussieMark79

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 12/12/2006 14:35

el nino is more than just warm ssts tho remember. Thats just a measurement that is used to confirm it.

there is things like the SOI index
cloudiness across the date line
the weakening of trade winds
atmospheric conditions in Pacific do change in those phases

I strongly doubt that nuclear explosions could affect these things
Posted by: Johnoo

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 12/12/2006 15:03

Hi AussieMark excuse my ignorance but weren't the French nuclear tests done under the Pacific? If so wouldn't that have some kind of affect and possibily long lasting affect on sub surface waters? which directly affects El ninos and La ninas? The SOI index, The Atmophere/cloudniness of the Date line and weakening of the trade winds is the domino affect of the subsurface temps either warming or cooling and expanding east to south america and spreading to the surface water and move back along the surface water west thats what causes trade winds to weaken cloudiness in the central and eastern pacific to rise and SOI to drop.
It all begins in the subsurface waters of the Pacific El ninos and La ninas.
Posted by: AussieMark79

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 12/12/2006 15:13

what causes the sst buildup in El Nino and La Nina events its actually trade winds weakening/strengthening

ie in El Nino events they become weaker than usual and the eastern and central equatorial pacific get waters warmer than usual.

i.e La Nina events they become stronger than usual and the central and eastern equatorial pacific get waters cooler than usual.
Posted by: AussieMark79

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 12/12/2006 15:18

La Nina

El Nino
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 12/12/2006 15:24

From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Ni%C3%B1o

Neutral



El Nino



La Nina

Posted by: Tempest

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 12/12/2006 15:26

Exactly Anticyclone, the question must me asked.

No different to the current questions of global warming and climate change.

Craig, I suggest you undertake the analysis, and we will get back to you.
Posted by: Craig Arthur

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 12/12/2006 16:06

I have my opinion and I don't think it's worth doing the maths, but if you do, then you should go ahead and do the analysis. If you find something of note, it'll be your name on it... wink
Posted by: Johnoo

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 12/12/2006 16:38

Common sense though Craig if the tests were done under the Pacific and subsurfaces waters is what triggers El Nino and La ninas which affects Australias weather which usually does in the form of prolonged droughts & floods it is definetly worth being discussed. One factor like I metioned SE Aus and SW AUS gotten dry since 96 the same time these tests were done few months after this just a coincidence is it?? Should be least looked into and talked about.
Posted by: Craig Arthur

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 12/12/2006 16:58

Common sense to me suggests that underground nuclear tests in 1996 would have negligble effect on subsurface water temperatures. The amount of heat released into the ocean from a nuclear test conducted of order kilometres below the ocean floor would be IMO very small (especially when compared to the scale of a westerly wind burst that can induce an El Nino). Mururoa Atoll is also south of 20°S, well away from the equatorial regions of concern. Hence, I don't think it's worth my time doing any more than the hand-waving I've just done. Anyone that thinks otherwise is free to sit down and do the maths themselves. Please don't try to castigate me for stating an opinion that is contrary to your thoughts though.
Posted by: E-J

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 12/12/2006 17:45

Craig. Ever heard of Chaos theory? Domino effect from tiny variations in "natural" invironments can have a disastrous effect elsewhere.
Posted by: Craig Arthur

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 12/12/2006 18:01

I'll go and throw a cup of hot water in the ocean and hope that adjusts the balance of the oceans to eliminate El Nino wink Using 'chaos theory' is trying to squeeze out of answering the question (or actually doing the analysis I suggested). [BTW, I'm well aware of chaos and all its implications]
Posted by: Tempest

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 12/12/2006 18:19

No problem Craig, my hourly rate is $5000/hr, send me a purchase order and I'll start immediately. cool
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 12/12/2006 18:23

Quote:
I'll go and throw a cup of hot water in the ocean and hope that adjusts the balance of the oceans to eliminate El Nino
would u pleez? i want a la nina :p
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 12/12/2006 18:27

I don't know either way. To entirely rule it out however is ignorance. Also to compare a cup of water to a nuclear explosion is kind of silly , don't you think?
Posted by: E-J

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 12/12/2006 23:26

Quote:
Originally posted by Craig Arthur:
I'll go and throw a cup of hot water in the ocean and hope that adjusts the balance of the oceans to eliminate El Nino wink Using 'chaos theory' is trying to squeeze out of answering the question (or actually doing the analysis I suggested). [BTW, I'm well aware of chaos and all its implications]
From reading ur posts I am well aware that you have knowledge of these types of issues mate. Just thought I would add fuel to the fire. lol laugh

And runoff, he was making a reference to chaos theory when he mentions the cup of water. A butterfly can flap it's wings in Australia and a cyclone can spawn in Brazil as a result (Chaos thinking) he was merely trying to guzumpt my reference to it by equating it to our el nino discussions.
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 13/12/2006 01:01

I am aware of that E-J. Though he was wrong about the strength of cyclone Larry when it came ashore. He reckoned it was a cat 4. BoM disagreed. Everything is by degrees. Throw a billion cuppas in the ocean and the change may become visible.

One of the so-called experts on weather reckoned Monica was going to track sth. Expertise in a given topic doesn't automatically make you right. I suspect to believe that a nuclear detonation has no effect on it's surrounds is naive in the least.
Posted by: E-J

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 13/12/2006 08:42

Quote:
Originally posted by runoff:
I suspect to believe that a nuclear detonation has no effect on it's surrounds is naive in the least.
Definitely mate. It does require a little more investigation IMO. To just dismiss it on opinion is definitely naive
Posted by: Tempest

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 13/12/2006 09:34

Yep, I agree as well, we really haven't got a full understanding of natures mechanisms. (cup of water - doh)
Posted by: Mick10

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 13/12/2006 09:40

so, why dont u guys start up a thread in General weather on this discussion, there might be someone/people on WZ who might share some more knowledge on the issue.
its an intresting topic and i for one have no idea about the effects of a nuclear weapon detonation. what was the weather like in japan in the years from 1945-1950? does undergroud testing have any affect. go for it smile
Posted by: Tempest

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 13/12/2006 09:40

Do I see signs of El-nino break down? Or justa phase of cooling off S.A.

Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 13/12/2006 09:49

I don't think that anybody has been saying that a nuclear detonation "has no effect on its surrounds". Anyone who has read reports from witnesses or seen pictures of the explosions, would know that there is an immediate dramatic effect in the surrounding environment. Heat and nuclear radiation, pollution, damage to the plant and animal life in the ocean and islands.. the list would go on and on .. but what has all this got to do with the weather, except perhaps in a limited extent in the very short term. Surely, it is nonsense to suggest that the heat generated by explosions is still heating up the environment more than 10 years later!! An event like that would be like a drop in the ocean when viewed against the whole picture over many years. I am sure that the meterologists have had enough training to know which type of events are capable of influencing large scale weather patterns and what events would have no effect. As for investigation, surely that would be needed to be done closer to the the relevant time. Of course, I do not know what records may have been kept in the relevant area, but one would expect there has already been a lot of scientific investigation on the effects of those nuclear tests.
Edit: I posted this before I read your post, Mick10, and I agree this would be probably make a good topic for general weather.
Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 13/12/2006 09:55

I don't think that map indicates any break-down of El Nino at this stage. As I understand it, what we should be looking at are the ocean temperatures closer to the equator in the central and eastern pacific, rather than further south along the South America coast.
Posted by: KevD

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 13/12/2006 10:14

Hey Tempest

Good to check out the underwater temps...and they are showing a likely substantial increase off the SA coast in the next week or so...If that doesn't happen (and with the SOI sitting close to zero for a while now) I'd start getting my hopes up...Me thinks the next couple of weeks will make or break this event.
Posted by: AussieMark79

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 13/12/2006 10:27

Tempest the area u should be looking at for Nino 3.4 which is the region used for current ENSO status

is (5°N-5°S, 120°-170°W)

and that region is still about 1C or so above normal

the area with the cooling is more Nino region 1 and 2

Posted by: AussieMark79

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 13/12/2006 10:41

here is some information from the WMO about ElNino

Current Situation and Outlook
An El Niño event is now established across the tropical Pacific basin. Conditions since the last update in September have reinforced the event. Sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific were about 1 to 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer than usual during October, at levels typical of many El Niño events in the historical record. This El Niño event is expected to continue at least into the first quarter of 2007.

During December 2006 to February 2007, a modest further intensification is expected of the unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Warm water continues to be in place beneath the surface, though computer models and expert interpretation suggest that the surface warming is not expected to be substantially greater than 1.5 degrees Celsius above normal during the December to February period, so the event is not likely to be considered as above the moderate category in this time frame. This does not, however, give cause for complacency. Unusual and sometimes severe climate patterns are known to have occurred during El Niño events of the current magnitude.

Further developments in the equatorial Pacific around March-May 2007 will then be critical for the evolution of the event. Scenarios include that the current El Niño event (i) rapidly dissipates to neutral conditions during March-May; (ii) slowly dissipates to neutral conditions during the first half of 2007; (iii) transitions to a La Niña during the year; or (iv) becomes reinforced, and persists to or beyond mid-2007, as an El Niño event of 1-1.5 year duration. The latter outcome, such as occurred in 1986-87, is unusual but cannot be ruled out at this time. Updates in early 2007 will therefore be important for assessing likely developments beyond the first quarter of 2007.

Impacts have already been, and continue to be, severe in the western equatorial Pacific, the islands therein and surrounding continental regions, including Australia and Indonesia. This is in part believed to be also attributable to a particularly strong pattern of unusually cool ocean temperatures in the equatorial western Pacific and eastern Indian Oceans. Such general patterns do often occur during El Niño events, but rarely so early and with such intensity. These conditions are expected to continue to reinforce the effects of El Niño across the tropical western Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean. Furthermore, the western Indian Ocean has now also become unusually warm, a pattern expected to reinforce unusual climate conditions across the Indian Ocean and surrounding continental regions including eastern equatorial Africa over the next few months. Parts of eastern Africa are already reported to be receiving extremely heavy rainfall.
Posted by: Squid

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 13/12/2006 11:20

great roll on the next wet season :rolleyes:
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 13/12/2006 12:23

My gut still says we are going to get some good rain in February/March.
Posted by: Tempest

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 13/12/2006 13:37

I agree Kevin.

Hope ur guts right runoff.
Posted by: Johnoo

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 13/12/2006 22:10

Hi Tempest, I am just wondering the map of the ssts that you showed us is updated every day or once a week? Just wondering if you got a link for me too look at from time to time where you got that from? that would be great. Thanks.
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 13/12/2006 22:19

anticyclone, It updates every 2-5 days.

http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/

You will notice that the southern hemisphere is starting to become warmer than the northern hemisphere in terms of anomalies, for the first time in a few years. Hearing stories of very heavy rainfall in south africa and south america which have been suffering similar drought consequences in recent years as us is very encouraging news for us and for the whole of the southern hemisphere all together.
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 13/12/2006 22:27

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html This one is updated daily.
Posted by: Johnoo

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 13/12/2006 23:43

Thanks bokkey & Runoff. Sure is Good news they have had prolong droughts too in Africa for many years now so this is encouraging & good sign for us Aussies and I have noticed the ssts slowing being on the warmer side then cooler side in the southern hemisphere lately things are adding up for next year that warm tongue off NSW bokkey is a good sign too and I hope stays warmer than normal for several months at least.
Posted by: AussieMark79

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 14/12/2006 08:34

those warm-neutral anomalities have been off the NSW Coast (especially the south) since about June-July
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/climo.html so nothing new there really
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 14/12/2006 09:34

I'd like to see the GoC warm up some more. A low forming there in an el nino more often than not is steered to the sth east by the westerlies delivering rain throughout nth east Queensland.

The westerly wind bursts seem to be coming across the equator further east though than in past elnino events from my recollection. I recall them forming above Australia in past years.In turn suppressing any onshore flow. Any thoughts?
Posted by: Tempest

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 14/12/2006 09:54

Hi AntiC, sorry I did not get back to you earlier, looks like everyone else has bombarded you with all the web sites, hope that helps.
Posted by: Johnoo

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 14/12/2006 20:24

Hi Tempest, thats okay thanks anyway :cheers:
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 15/12/2006 17:11

http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200612/s1812173.htm FYI
Posted by: Tempest

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 15/12/2006 18:06

Yep, well its obvious that if the polar caps are melting, S.E. Aust in particular is going to dry out. Not looking good.
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 15/12/2006 18:12

i dont get why we would get drier if polar caps melt thus sea levels rise. The waters will warm correspondingly meaning more moisture thus more rain wouldnt it? The SE is already dry enough, to the point where i dont think its possible for it to be any more drier than it is.
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 15/12/2006 20:13

The best way to get heavy rain is to mix cold air and warm air Bokkey. The greater the difference the better the rain, as a rule.
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 15/12/2006 20:19

so that means we have cold and warm air already..and how will that dissapear with melting ice caps, rising oceans and mixing of SSTs.
Posted by: Johnoo

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 15/12/2006 22:46

The only thing I can say to that bokkey is I think the southern waters under Australia will get colder for a while cause of the melting Antartica ice perhaps moving North (ie like the south island of New Zealand)& perhaps making the ssts anomalies colder than usual, with colder waters than normal around southern and SE Aus will produce less clouds with cold fronts and less rain? Otherwise i'm not that sure myself why this would affect SE Australia more than the rest of Australia.
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 16/12/2006 00:20

The upper atmosphere is warming up. Less cold air aloft = less rain.
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 16/12/2006 01:07

Quote:
The upper atmosphere is warming up. Less cold air aloft = less rain.
Warmer water = more moisture.

1) moisture has nothing to do with how hot or cold the atmosphere is. I heard on ch 10 tonight from one of the bureau guys talking saying that 2006 was phenomenally dry to the point where they thought their instruments were failing. So i dont understand what caused the extrodinarily dry conditions. What gets me most is the rate at which the conditions get hotter and drier every year. Surely global warming doesnt occur that fast. I know pretty well, my property in SW sydney recorded dew points of below -25C on 3 occasions.

2) Some scientists have for a while now proposed the theory that the tropics are expanding. If this is the case, as some say already is in terms of global warming/climate change, then places further south like NE NSW or central NSW will or has already started to feel the hotter and muggier climate that the tropics do. If this happens then places like sydney should start seeing more frequent rain and storm activity just as the tropics are right now and their upper atmosphere is warm..

hmm this confuses me too much confused
Posted by: Tempest

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 16/12/2006 09:25

Well Bokey, the way I see is that the South Pole creates most of Southern Austrlia's wet weather during the winter. When was the last time S.E. Aust experienced constistant years of cold wet winter weather.

I lived in Ballarat for four years between 87-90, we had snow each of those years. I dont think they have had consistant cold wet weather since.

The last time Geelong's Barwon river flooded was 1995, it used to be a yearly event when I was growig up there. Geelong has had below yearly ave rainfall since 95.

The tropics in Northern Aust are not getting wetter, in fact its the opposite.


Its very obviuous that the long term trend is drier than wetter. Yes we may get periods of wet weather, but it will not be consistant. More periods of drier weather is most likely.

P.S. Getting back to that nuclear bomb discussion, the yanks detonated over 330 nuclear devices over the pacific back in the 50's-60's.

The majority of those were atmospheric explosions - radioactive clouds shot up 60,000 to 100,000 feet into the atmosphere. Most of the bombs were between 50Ktonns to 28Mtonns. A 15Mtonn blast created 1.8km wide x 1.2km deep crater.

How many did the Russians test? One of theirs was 58Mtons. Yep, cup of hot water in the ocean eh.
Posted by: Tempest

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 16/12/2006 09:25

Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 16/12/2006 10:48

You are right Bokkey. Warm water = more moisture, however warm water alone does not make rain . It needs to mix with cold air to condense. If the atmosphere is warmer aloft then there is likely to be less rain.

On the nuclear debate , it is interesting to see the tests took place just as our rainfall started to take a downhill slide. I still believe that some of this dryness is due to cycles though.
Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 16/12/2006 11:22

Quote:
Originally posted by Tempest:

......

The tropics in Northern Aust are not getting wetter, in fact its the opposite.

Its very obviuous that the long term trend is drier than wetter. Yes we may get periods of wet weather, but it will not be consistant. More periods of drier weather is most likely.

It seems to me that those types of conclusions would depend on which statistics you use. I don't doubt that these has been a lack of floods in Victoria in the last 10 years, but this is likely to be part of a cyclic natural variation and probaly only in part due to global warming caused effects.
In particular, however, the comment that the northern Australian tropics are not getting wetter but are getting drier doesn't seem to be supported by the BoM Trend Maps on Climate Variability and Change.
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/silo/reg/cli_chg/trendmaps.cgi
Or by the time series graphs.
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/silo/reg/cli_chg/timeseries.cgi?variable=rain®ion=aus&season=0112
For the period from 1900-2005, the trend maps show some increase in rainfall over large areas of Australia, with the exception of parts of the east coast and the SW coast. The increases are particularly notable across the tropical areas of the Northern Territory and norther WA.
Since 1970, there has been a more dramatic variation, with large increases over much of the western half of the continent (most pronounced in the top of the NT and northern WA) while eastern Australia has become quite dramatically drier in that period. Some of these variations would probably be consistent with a pattern of global warming, but some local variations are quite anomolous and must surely be due to random large deviations from the norm, such as the occasional unusual path of a tropical depression (or ex-tropical cyclone) through the inland, with a corresponding lack of rainfall in the parts not so affected. These variations tend to sort themselves out over time.
So, I think in the normal course of natural variation, we are in for some big rainfalls in the not too distant future the parts of the east coast that have been missing out.
As I understand it, the effect of global warming however caused (and I don't doubt that some of it is man-made) on our rainfall is supposed to be a decrease in winter rain over southern Australia and an increase in summer rain over most of Australia, with the net effect being a slight increase overall.
Further, some of the decrease in recent years in eastern Australian rainfall would probably be due to lack of strong La Nina events, more than global warming. And we will see a strong La Nina again, perhaps soon!
Posted by: Tempest

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 16/12/2006 12:10

Some useful info there R.N, however, I still believe that the trend points towards dryer years.

Reality is that man made pollution is slowly destroying this planet.

I hope your right about a wet phase coming soon.

Info from runoff.

www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200612/s1812173.htm
Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 16/12/2006 13:09

Tempest, I agree that human activities are slowly destroying the planet with pollution. I also think that action needs to be taken about this sooner rather than later, and it is rather sad that our governments (particularly USA and Australia) who have the benefit of scientific advice have been slow in addressing the situation.
But I think that the key message from that ABC news report is that the "people must expect hotter, more variable weather". It seems consistent with the scientific opinions that global warming will have some effect on weather patterns such as el nino and la nina (although what effect is perhaps uncertain at this time).
So, there will still be floods as well as droughts and there always will be el nino and la nina. I am still not so sure about a trend to drier years - possibly that applies to some areas only. And I do think we are getting towards a wetter phase (likely starting in 2007 with an overdue la nina event) which hopefully should bring much needed rain to much of Australia, including eastern and southern Qld sooner rather than later.
Posted by: Johnoo

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 16/12/2006 13:32

I agree RN. On that note at the start of this forum topic I read someone mentioned they saw a program on the Abc back in August this year about how scientists mentioned that solar flares have been very minimal the last 10 years or so and they have been linked to declining rainfall over the past 5-10 years of most parts of Australia they also went onto to say that from now (August 2006) on & next several years we will be entering a phase of increased solar flares apparntly solar flares have been linked to wetter phases in Australia ie 73/74 during the La nina solar flares were happening frequently having said this about the increased solar flares anyone hear on the news Thursday night on the radio about solar flares distrubting certain technology down here on planet earth few days ago? Thats the first one I have heard mentioned on the news for many many years mabye this of things to come in the next 6 to 12 months? could there be a link increased solar flares and increased rainfall over most of Australia? All I know is scientists predicted this 4 months ago and as it was I heard the first one for ages on radio the other day whether the rain will increase again substantially with the break down of the El nino & solar flares being on the increase again as well remains to be seen.
Posted by: Blue Skies

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 16/12/2006 19:45

I think you've got it the wrong way around. It's sunspot numbers that seem to have some influence on long term climate, and flares come from sunspots. No or few sunspots are associated with cooler wetter weather. High numbers of sunspots are associated with a warmer, dryer climate world-wide. At the moment we are very close to sunspot minimum. I had expected this year to be the wet year but it looks like minimum will be sometime next year, so it could be interesting to see what happens with a combined sunspot minimum/la nina event. However recent work on the last couple of solar cycles has shown that big X-class flares can occur at anytime in the 11 year (on average) cycle. At the moment I know of no one who has found any short-term link between solar activity and short term, ie daily, weather.
On the prediction front, while the next solar cycle is expected to be a strong one, I've read from two sources that the two cycles following are expected to be quiet, and could see the global weather cooling down somewhat (from about 2018 onwards that would be). Could, mind you, could - other factors not around in the past might give a different result! For further reading I would recommend a search on the "Maunder Minimum" as a lead in to sunspot cycles and their possible effects.
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 16/12/2006 23:51

doesnt a high number of sunspots mean a cooler wetter climate? Since theres less heat being emitted from the sun?
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 17/12/2006 00:08

That's what I thought. Hayden Walker reckons high sun spot activity is linked to rain. He reckons we will get floods in February 07.
Posted by: Johnoo

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 17/12/2006 00:42

Hi Runoff, Just wondering who Hayden Walker is? And where does he think which part of Australia these floods will happen in Feb 07? Can you be bit more specific cheers thanks.

John.
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 17/12/2006 02:11

He is a long range forecaster. His father was renowned for his forecasts. The rains are supposed to occur throughout nth and east Queensland....Cheers.
Posted by: Johnoo

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 17/12/2006 12:09

Thanks Runoff :cheers:
Posted by: Johnoo

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 17/12/2006 15:26

Hi Bokkey, Notice how rapidly the Eastern Pacific along the equator line has warmed up in the last week? was 1.95c warmer than average 5 days ago it is now 2.39c above average is this the highest anmoalies there has been so far with this El nino? Surely this is a sign it's getting stronger? Preety much like we said by the looks of this it will get stronger in December & daily map looks like it is. I also been looking at the ssts map link you gave me Bokkey. Preety big increase in a space of 5-6 days. This is the daily map I look at sometimes those very warm Sub-surface waters 3-4c higher than normal) seem to be coming up have been for the last week and reaching the the surface waters

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 18/12/2006 16:49

yeah anti does look rather strong now. That little cool patch off peru is good news. There are a lot of extreme high and low anomalies world wide if you look at that map, things are kinda all over the place. Thought id post this for obvious reasons:

Posted by: BD (Bucketing Down)

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 18/12/2006 17:02

That is pretty normal for El-Nino to peak now in strength in December, but the affects for Australia become less now also and start to not affect us much at all in Summer. Temps SST nearer Australia are more important this time of year.
Posted by: AussieMark79

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 18/12/2006 17:33

subsurface has really weakened in December after the highs that was achieved in November

Sep-Dec
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 18/12/2006 17:37

Interesting stuff mark, some rapid dissipating going on there. Im interested in that cold patch west of the dateline moving east, that will i think ease the elnino just a little earlier than expected.
Posted by: AussieMark79

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 18/12/2006 17:44

the SST data will be due out later on tonite and I anticipate that the Nino 3.4 index would of increased to a 3 monthly value of +1.0C
Posted by: Blue Skies

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 18/12/2006 20:13

Quote:
Originally posted by Bokkey:
doesnt a high number of sunspots mean a cooler wetter climate? Since theres less heat being emitted from the sun?
Nope. High number of sunspots are associated with a warmer climate. Sunspots are also the source of flares, flares cause aurorae, and very strong aurorae see the formation of nitrates from the atmosphere that can be trapped in snow at high latitudes. This is partly how the past activity of the sun has been traced.
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 20/12/2006 17:19

Latest Elnino Wrap-up http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

Quote:
Summary: El Niño maturing

Mature El Niño conditions continue to dominate the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Ocean surface temperatures have been steady over the past fortnight at somewhat more than 1°C above average right across the central and eastern equatorial regions, and cloud patterns generally show a classic El Niño structure. Computer model guidance continues to suggest that Pacific Ocean temperatures, and hence the El Niño, may peak around January or February 2007. This timing would be consistent with the breakdown of past El Niño events.

However, there are a few signs that the event may have already started to weaken: the SOI has only been weakly negative for more than a month; the Trade Winds in the western and central Pacific have strengthened to near-normal values in December; and sub-surface temperatures show a weakening of east-Pacific warmth and a strengthening cool signal extending from the west.


Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 20/12/2006 23:12

Bye bye El nino (fingers crossed)
Posted by: AussieMark79

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 21/12/2006 09:34

the last 13 week data is
Quote:
2006091820060924 0.81
2006092520061001 0.70
2006100220061008 0.64
2006100920061015 0.95
2006101620061022 0.87
2006102320061029 0.97
2006103020061105 0.91
2006110620061112 1.09
2006111320061119 1.28
2006112020061126 1.31
2006112720061203 1.25
2006120420061210 1.31
2006121120061217 1.17
that is now an anomality +1.02C for the last 3 months

thats the highest level since February or March, 2003

the next 3 values to come off are 0.81, 0.70 and 0.64
Posted by: Inclement Weather

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 21/12/2006 10:58

SSTs in the Coral Sea have certainly been steadily increasing. I would say by the end of January, it will be back to business as usual. wink
Posted by: Squid

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 21/12/2006 18:47

ciao El Nino and please dont come back La nina please come and visit :cheers:
Posted by: Squid

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 22/12/2006 15:57

so is el nino coming or going?
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 22/12/2006 16:00

Looks to be weakening slowly now. But i wont be surprised if it regained its mature strength in the weeks to come. Its been doing that throughout the last couple of years. For now its slowly going, trade winds are slowly starting to pick up across the pacific, the only thing im worried about now is that the next MJO phase will create a new westerly wind blast to welcome back the elnino. we just cant win
Posted by: AussieMark79

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 25/12/2006 22:04

the 13 week data is now

Quote:
2006092520061001 0.70
2006100220061008 0.64
2006100920061015 0.95
2006101620061022 0.87
2006102320061029 0.97
2006103020061105 0.91
2006110620061112 1.09
2006111320061119 1.28
2006112020061126 1.31
2006112720061203 1.25
2006120420061210 1.31
2006121120061217 1.17
2006121820061224 1.14
an average of +1.05C now

another 2 weeks of this level will give this el nino a average of +1.1C
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 25/12/2006 22:17

The 2 deg cold pool over the western pacific is gone. Hopefully further warming will come over the next month or so.
Posted by: Squid

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 25/12/2006 22:51

so this is good news for us yes?
Posted by: Johnoo

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 26/12/2006 00:18

I would think so Squid warmer waters in the western pacific meaning more evaporation for in and around Qld and Eastern Australia as a whole.
Has Anyone notice the very cold patch off Sumatra in Indonesia has completly dissapeared in the last couple of weeks? It had been there Since June & now that it has gone back to normal the flood rains have come along with it in Sumatra, I also heard there has been heavy rains in Malaysia mabye a things to come for Australia in the coming weeks and months. Indonesia gets affected by El nino just as much as Australia with droughts usually so this is a good sign for us.
The Poor people there can't take a trick, some parts of the island has a metre of water from the floods cause of the Torrenical rains. It was 2 years ago today the Earthquake happend & Tsunami came through in exactly the same area.
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 26/12/2006 00:46

Yeah anti, how ironic. Banda aceh seems to have copped the worst in this situation as well with the most flooding in the areas that DIDNT get the tsunami. Most of the indian ocean has increased to extreme anomalies in some places so this would explain all the rain in africa, asia, and indonesia of late. Just hope its our turn next smile
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 26/12/2006 01:39

It just may be Bokkey.Satellite loops are impressive at the moment. It's been a long while since this sort of cloud cover has been seen. SOI is only slightly negitive also.
Posted by: KevD

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 26/12/2006 11:44

Floods in Indonesia, SOI not dropping as fast as I thought it would, warming in the W Pacific....all signs of the weakening El Nino...which is happening at a great time of year for us with the wettest time of year coming up smile

Could be one of those times when we look back and see the combination of signals as obvious signs of the end of the El Nino...perhaps similar to how it took months after signs started appearing for the El Nino to be officially acknowledged.

Happy to see where we stand right now and interested to see where we head from here smile
Posted by: Squid

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 26/12/2006 12:24

very interesting times with the el nino weaking atm earlier than forcast woudl it go to nutral conditions again or la nina?
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 26/12/2006 12:39

Too early to think about neutral let alone la nina. The new MJO could enhance conditions for an elnino again so we might want to think about the worst case scenario which is that, and which in my books looks rather likely frown Most POAMA runs are going for an elnino 2 times stronger or equal in strength to the one we just had towards the middle of next year. i think thats the last thing we need in a situation like this.
Posted by: adon

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 26/12/2006 12:49

I see that there is widespread flooding in Java so unless that is product of the MJO or somthing more major I don't know but I reckon it is a good sign anyhoo. Bit strange to see the rain in Sthn Qld Elnino is a strange thing alright.
Posted by: Squid

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 26/12/2006 14:49

the MJO must be in phase 4 soon surely
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 26/12/2006 19:04

Quote:
Originally posted by Bokkey:
Too early to think about neutral let alone la nina. The new MJO could enhance conditions for an elnino again so we might want to think about the worst case scenario which is that, and which in my books looks rather likely frown Most POAMA runs are going for an elnino 2 times stronger or equal in strength to the one we just had towards the middle of next year. i think thats the last thing we need in a situation like this.
I don't want to think about back to back el nino events. Unfortunately they are becoming more likely.
Posted by: AussieMark79

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 27/12/2006 07:41

1991-1995 had like 3 consecutive events

so its not unprecedented
Posted by: Squid

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 27/12/2006 07:59

when was the last time that we had a strong la nina?
Posted by: Raindammit

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 27/12/2006 08:26

Quote:
Originally posted by Bokkey:
Most POAMA runs are going for an elnino 2 times stronger or equal in strength to the one we just had towards the middle of next year.
Out of the 7 long term models the BOM use, only 2 are going for 'warm' conditions, the rest go for neutral. I wouldn't be too concerned just yet!
Posted by: Steamy

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 27/12/2006 10:01

MJO has stalled in phase 3 at the moment, but the the plots have increased ever so slightly over ther past few days.

http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaff/matw/maproom/RMM/phase.Last40days.gif

Not too sure what this means for us though?
Posted by: P.K.

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 27/12/2006 10:31

Quote:
Originally posted by squid:
when was the last time that we had a strong la nina?
Based on the NOAA weekly Nino 3.4 anomaly values (The BoM ones don't go back as far) I made this a while ago.

Posted by: Squid

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 27/12/2006 11:23

i dont understand that map
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 27/12/2006 11:52

P.K do you live in a crematorium? Home of the ashes. Sorry couldn't help it. SQUID , the dark blue area is the last moderate La nina in 2000. It delivered some good falls throughout eastern Australia. Unfortunately it is offset by several El nino episodes.

RD , the long term models (except one) got the forecast wrong this year as did I. If you were a gambling type you would be putting your money on El nino events to outnumber La nina. We had a weak la nina type pattern last summer and it didn't do squat until April. At which time according to BoM , enso has little effect on us anyway.
Posted by: Squid

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 27/12/2006 11:56

thanks for explaining that runoff :cheers:
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 28/12/2006 20:17

whats the shortest el nino ever recorded and how long did it go for? If this current el nino eases off soon itll finish off a rather short one (roughly 4 months)
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 28/12/2006 20:48

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/technical.html

Squid , I saved this for you also. It might help you get a better understanding of the current event as well as el nino overall. I find it interesting to read. Cheers.
Posted by: Squid

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 29/12/2006 00:36

cheers for that link runoff
Posted by: AussieMark79

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 29/12/2006 21:14

Quote:
Originally posted by Bokkey:
whats the shortest el nino ever recorded and how long did it go for? If this current el nino eases off soon itll finish off a rather short one (roughly 4 months)
depends if we go off NOAA or BOM

since el nino is usually determined from a 3 month averages the lowest on NOAA has 2 occurances of 5 sessions [Jul-Sep] session - [Nov-Jan] session in 1951/52

also

[Aug-Oct] - [Dec-Feb] 1969/1970
Posted by: Raindammit

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 31/12/2006 08:50

Latest update from Tropical Storm Risk (TSR.com) says that we can expect cyclone activity to be about 20% below normal because of increased wind shear caused by El-Nino. Will be interesting to see January's updated forecast if the El-Nino continues to break down!:

TSR continues to anticipate the 2006/7 Australian season will see activity
approximately 20% below norm.


The TSR (Tropical Storm Risk) early December forecast update for Australian-region tropical cyclone activity in 2006/7 continues to anticipate activity ~20% below average. The forecast spans the Australian season from the 1st November 2006 to the 30th April 2007 and is based on data available through the end of November 2006. Our main predictor is the actual anomaly in October-November Niño 4 sea surface temperatures (SST) which is above-average by 0.72oC. Since SSTs in this region are linked to vertical wind shear over the Australian region during Austral summer, an above-average Niño 4 SST indicates above-average wind shear and below-average tropical storm activity. Thus we expect Australian basin cyclone activity and landfalling numbers to be below-average in 2006/7.

:cheers:
Posted by: Squid

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 31/12/2006 08:57

20% isnt that bad is it? and your right RD the next update will be interesting.
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 31/12/2006 12:18

They will come in as weak lows instead and deliver massive rain? laugh
Posted by: Mick10

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 31/12/2006 13:16

now your talking runoff!!!! the weak ones can often bring the best rains!!!
Posted by: Squid

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 31/12/2006 13:20

exaxtly bring them in we dont need the wind but we need the rains
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 01/01/2007 17:09

SOI has ramained above Elnino levels for a few weeks now. Perhaps this event is finished.
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 01/01/2007 17:40

I havent seen the trade winds this strong for so much of the pacific in yonks! theres no lows or typhoons or cyclones to stop them either so hopefully they keep pushing that hot water in. SST maps show some warm patches seeping into the coral sea at last. And with the whole of the indian ocean so warm, theres some interesting times ahead, especially with the monsoon which is hovering over a very favourable environment.
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 01/01/2007 19:53

Some excellent cross equatorial flow to help fire things up also.
Posted by: adon

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 02/01/2007 16:26

FWOAR heven't looked at the TAO map for a while and you right bokkey! Certainly the best I have seen it(since I have had it bookmarked). Hopefully this may be a sign of the rebound we have been praying for? Really though the weather in the last couple of weeks had not really been Elnino like and more like a wettish type of summer I feel. With all of the storm activity in NSW/Qld and now Vic I think that maybe it is just the start of a wet year for us finally! Hope I am not jusmping the gun but hell it;s a good start! laugh
Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 02/01/2007 18:29

The latest BoM Tropical Climate Note is of interest. It is mentioned there that El Nino conditions persist, although some ENSO indicators have weakened in the past 2 weeks. They seem unsure as to whether this is a temporary weakening, due to active MJO phase, or whether it indicates that the El Nino event may be drawing to to an end.
They also seemed to be unsure as to whether the monsoon will affect mainland Australia during this active MJO phase - if it fails to do so, the next window of opportunity (MJO influenced anyway) may be early February.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/tropnote/tropnote.shtml
Posted by: Squid

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 03/01/2007 07:37

hopefully it is the end of el nino. on another note on the news adds last night it was on either channel 7 or 9 that said that we have a 1 in 5 chance ie 20% chance of drought breaking rainfall soon i thought that was interesting
Posted by: adon

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 03/01/2007 07:48

Well really there is a 100% chance of drought breaking rains....just the timing is the tricky bit! wink
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 04/01/2007 01:10

Looks to me like another westerly wind burst gearing up in the western pacific - fantastic! Ive learnt not to get excited at anything that sounds like good news because theres always a flop side to it. IMO i can assure you the recent and current widespread showers/rain was due to the MJO, it was probably a little stronger than it usually is which is why it delivered. The el nino is still going strong in terms of its effects but it's intensity is weak. Theres still a constant risk that it will reintensify to the point where our drought will become doomsday.
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 04/01/2007 02:33

LoL Bokkey. Love your optimism!
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 04/01/2007 02:38

http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200701/s1821155.htm FYI.
Posted by: nitso

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 04/01/2007 03:43

LOL Runoff we must've posted that link within about two minutes in separate forums. I posted it in the General Weather forum on GW. Also the WMO report is an interesting read for 2006.

The thing that frustrates me most about el nino in Eastern Australia is that it messes up our whole upper circulation features. The QLD BOM have analysed that there is a very strong relationship between an ENSO event and troughing in Eastern QLD. Now people think yay trough = thunderstorms = rain. Not so, the troughs that occur (especially in Summer when they're attached to weak mid lat lows or mid lat systems well to the south of the continent) are almost always too weak to produce general rainfall. They usually produce very isolated thunderstorms and mostly in the south of the state (I'm talking from a QLD perspective by the way).

Now these weak trough systems come with the added bonus of providing us with next to zero chance of tropical developments in the Coral Sea due to the shearing effect they have (troughs will often provide the impetus for shear many hundreds of km away from the actual trough line). Now let's say we somehow through some miracle of nature manage to get something to develop in all that shear it adopts a SE track once getting within 600 or so km off the coast (due to the influence of the trough system).

Another feature of ENSO events is the frequency of trough movement offshore. Normally in Summer months we have a semi permanent inland trough and it stays as the name suggests - inland. During an EN event we seem to have these troughs constantly being picked up by cold fronts and pushed off the coast. So let's say hypothetically a cyclone developed in the Northern Coral Sea tomorrow, and was to move west and hit the coast by the weekend. What we would find in a 'normal' year is that this is a likely scenario, in an el nino year however we find that a trough system moves off the coast almost every week therefore that cyclone would have a 2 - 3 day window at best to attempt to make it to the coast before either being sheared or undergoing a process of recurvature.

For a year like this one according to the pattern so far, for a TC to impact QLD it would have to develop well West of 160E or be moving rapidly westwards to be able to effect us before the next mid lat trough system pushes east.

That is what I find most frustratinfg about an ENSO event in QLD.
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 04/01/2007 15:14

http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200701/s1821352.htm For your info. Thanks for that report Nitso. Very informative.
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 04/01/2007 15:35

well as long as it brings floods and violent storms im happy. droughts and heat waves can ofcorse go and bug some other country smile
Posted by: Tempest

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 05/01/2007 10:49

SOI slowly climbing.

30 day figure, -1.89. +8.00 yesterday, 7th consecutive day of positive figures.
Posted by: Squid

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 05/01/2007 12:07

is the good or bad?
Posted by: Raindammit

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 05/01/2007 12:34

Neither really. Its probably in the positives because pressures are quite low over northwestern parts of the country at the moment, and the monsoon trough is hovering above the top end as well. These things are only short term. We would need to see the SOI stay consitently positive before we see any major impact on our weather.
Posted by: adon

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 05/01/2007 13:07

Those trades are still going pretty well so that has to be good. Just hope that they keep rockin along! Was hoping to see warmer water moving closer to Qld now but seems to be taking longer. Hope that at least if conditions go back again the trades of the last week or so may have started to bring us out of this abyss
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 05/01/2007 13:29

just hope that westerly wind burst gets eaten up by the strong easterlies otherwise we'll be up sh*(#% creek again laugh

btw, I have never seen our NE'lys this dry before.. dps of 11-12c here confused !!! absolutely pathetic.
Posted by: adon

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 05/01/2007 15:22

Quote:
Originally posted by Bokkey:
just hope that westerly wind burst gets eaten up by the strong easterlies otherwise we'll be up sh*(#% creek again laugh

btw, I have never seen our NE'lys this dry before.. dps of 11-12c here confused !!! absolutely pathetic.
Never seen our Nlys so wet here! laugh Dps about the same! smile
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 05/01/2007 18:56

Sea-surface temps have dropped almost 1 deg along the eastern equatorial pacific in the past few days.
Posted by: Tempest

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 05/01/2007 21:36

Adon, I,m down your way tomorrow , forcasting rain, see what happens.

SOI is upto +12.3 today, 30 day ave -1.28, keep going please.
Posted by: adon

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 06/01/2007 00:00

Reckon you will like it Tempest, ATM 28c DP 12c not very common in the Mallee! Where abouts will you be?
Posted by: Tempest

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 06/01/2007 08:07

Geelong for two weeks to see our folks, friends, etc. I'm going to miss out on the Pier to Pub swim down at Lorne though.
Posted by: Johnoo

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 07/01/2007 13:21

I notice EC have a cyclonic system in the tropics around the date line end of next weekend this will not go well for the El nino going anytime soon if anything it may introduce a WWB and kick some life into the El nino again
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 07/01/2007 13:42

yeah john. Especially with the MJO still going strong, not looking good. Seems impossible to get into a La nina with the constant typhoon activity around the asian and pacific waters. Looks to me like a permanent el nino from here on in - time to get used to it me thinks.
Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 07/01/2007 14:07

To quote from a Qld Department of Primary Industries web-page about the MJO and westerly wind bursts:
"But while the MJO can trigger rainfall events over much of Queensland it can also produce westerly wind bursts in the Pacific Ocean. At certain times of the year these westerly wind bursts are often an early sign of the formation or regeneration of an El Niño sea surface temperature pattern. These westerly wind bursts are most dangerous in autumn and early winter when the sea surface temperatures are “locking” into a pattern for the following 12 months."

The full information together with diagrams:
http://www2.dpi.qld.gov.au/climate/15874.html

These westerly wind bursts are normally associated with the monsoon activity and tropical lows that occur at this time of the year, and the information I've quoted above would tend to indicate the WWB's are really only of major concern if they occur later in the season - autumn and early winter. And their really major significance would be their role in the commencement of a new el nino event, rather than as an indicator of continuance of an existing one. It is a normal result of the activity in the SPCZ that some WWB's will occur each season.
Also a strong MJO in Phases 5 and 6, usually does more good than harm to Australian seasonal conditions - it is only when the MJO remains strong in its passage across the Pacific that there would be concern about the increased likliehood of el nino being triggered, and usually this concern would apply later in the season than we are now. It is too early for alarm, especially when some other el nino indicators are showing a weakening trend.
Posted by: BD (Bucketing Down)

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 07/01/2007 14:22

MJO's seem rarer during El-Ninos once they get going, and any MJO like we have now, to me would be a good sign that the El-Nino is weakening. When we did not have any MJO's of note all Spring and early Summer, the wet was delayed and just patchy thundery at best. Now we have an MJO of substance things are starting to move into action in the tropical Australian region, and can then drift tropical moisture southwards to Southern Australia as well.
Posted by: Inclement Weather

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 07/01/2007 14:27

I hope so Holts; but looking at the latest MJO phase diagram (spiderweb graph), it looks as though it is dive-bombing towards oblivion.
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 07/01/2007 17:37

According to the latest spider web graph, the mjo episode seems to be retreating back towards weakeness so hopefully it dies as a phase 5 or 6 so that we dont have to worry about WWBs and such.
Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 07/01/2007 18:14

Quote:
Originally posted by Bokkey:
According to the latest spider web graph, the mjo episode seems to be retreating back towards weakeness so hopefully it dies as a phase 5 or 6 so that we dont have to worry about WWBs and such.
And also hopefully you won't have to worry about much MJO related rainfall over eastern Australia?
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 07/01/2007 18:21

yeah but it has passed that phase where E aust experiences rainfall. + It didnt bring much rainfall.. apart from WA from Isobel.
Posted by: BD (Bucketing Down)

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 07/01/2007 21:25

Due to the cold SSTs off QLD it, the MJO I mean,may just stay over Tropical Australian warmer water and the top of Australia for a week or so, but, perhaps weakening slowly. It may still spawn another NT/WA TC yet or at least a tropical rain low system.
Posted by: Squid

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 07/01/2007 21:36

it still has phase 6 to go yet before it stops influencing our rainfall I didnt know that the MJO could stall in a phase
Posted by: adon

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 07/01/2007 21:47

See what you can make out of this!

http://www.news.com.au/sundayheraldsun/story/0,,21021354-2862,00.html
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 07/01/2007 22:14

Hmmmmmmmm I don't know Adon. Those rainfall probabilities are based on averages over the past 100 years or so. They haven't stacked up over the past decade. 50- 60% is still only a half/half chance and yet they talk like it's a certainty.
I would love to see drought breaking rains right across Australia, however it has been so hit and miss of late.
The water they talk about off Indonesia looks to have cooled slightly in the past week.
Posted by: adon

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 07/01/2007 22:46

Yeah well I was a little puzzled how 60% and below was a deluge but that's paper headlines for ya! Will have to find that link to indian ocean Dipole again. I thought it was the other way round that was good for us!
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 08/01/2007 15:32

The sea-surface temps along the equatorial pacific are continuing to fall. Interesting that at the same time, the warm pool of WA is breaking down. If that area had stayed high with a cooling of enso 4 we might have had a very wet late summer.
Posted by: Johnoo

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 08/01/2007 16:55

Check this out guys, The latest sub-surface and surface waters in the equatorial Pacific, watch how the cooler water has expanded east and closer to the surface in the last 3-4 weeks if you ask me I think this El-nino is on its way out and should be finished by March at the latest April with a return to normal sea surface tempertures by then.

Heres the link:

http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/ocean/results/ocean_anals/SEQ_Equator/2007/Jan.gif
Posted by: Squid

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 08/01/2007 17:46

sure is a good sign that el nino is on the way out laugh
Posted by: adon

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 08/01/2007 22:32

Well hope I am not jumping the gun but maybe you guys were right about the Elnino developing early and breaking down early. Lets hope that this will mean an earlier than usual break in the season and maybe even a wet end of the season for the east coast.
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 09/01/2007 01:51

By the looks of that sub-surface data, I'd be prepared to say the event is on it's last legs. Not only is the cold water spreading back east, it is also breaking down the warm pool. This is reflected on the surface also. WWB's failed to develop off the back of the last mjo also. Another good sign. Cap it all off with a 30 day soi near zero and everything is saying goodbye el nino.
Posted by: AussieMark79

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 09/01/2007 08:53

this weeks Nino 3.4 reading is down to +0.92C
thats the lowest reading since the week ending November 5, 2006

the 13 week data reads like this now
Quote:
2006100920061015 0.95
2006101620061022 0.87
2006102320061029 0.97
2006103020061105 0.91
2006110620061112 1.09
2006111320061119 1.28
2006112020061126 1.31
2006112720061203 1.25
2006120420061210 1.31
2006121120061217 1.17
2006121820061224 1.14
2006122520061231 1.06
2007010120070107 0.92
thats a 3 month average of +1.09C
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 09/01/2007 12:54

What's your take on the event Mark? Do you think it's running out of steam?
Posted by: AussieMark79

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 09/01/2007 14:53

its peaked IMO

the average is also going to start to decrease now also. The next 4 figures to come off are 0.95, 0.87, 0.97 and 0.91

its going to just slowly weaken from here on in

http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/ocean/results/ocean_anals/SEQ_Equator/2007/Jan.gif

altho its not unusual tho as the 2002 event started to weaken about now

Quote:
2002123020030105 1.56
2003010620030112 1.33
2003011320030119 1.27
2003012020030126 1.02
2003012720030202 1.01
2003020320030209 0.76
2003021020030216 0.84
2003021720030223 0.95
2003022420030302 0.81
2003030320030309 0.64
2003031020030316 0.76
2003031720030323 0.83
2003032420030330 0.64
the way to read that is as follows
2003032420030330 0.64

2003 - Year
03 - Month
24 - Day
2003 - Year
03 - Month
30 - Day

and 0.64 is the anomality

as u can see the 2002/03 event started its weakening phase in Mid January just like the 2005/06 event is just the 2002/03 event peaked at a higher rate than the 2005/06 event did.

Looking at the SSTS over tropical Pacific since September u can see how it strengthened and now appears to be on a weakening trend

January 5, 2007
December 30, 2006
December 23, 2006
December 16, 2006
December 8, 2006
December 2, 2006
November 25, 2006
November 17, 2006
November 11, 2006
November 3, 2006
October 28, 2006
October 20, 2006
October 14, 2006
October 7, 2006
September 29, 2006
September 23, 2006
September 16, 2006
September 9, 2006
Posted by: Johnoo

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 09/01/2007 15:10

The 94-95 El nino also started weakening in January 1995 so it can be a fairly common occurnace.
Posted by: Squid

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 09/01/2007 18:03

so it will probably be nutral conditions for the rest of the year?
Posted by: Johnoo

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 09/01/2007 19:07

Judging by the models especially POAMA model which is what BOM rely on the most Squid it looks like it will cool off the Pacific along the equator line in the central and eastern Pacific from now until March/April before theres a slight warming again just below El nino thresholds which will peak June/July period & then from mid-late July-August onwards it will slowly cool off again but all in all between March and August Nuetral conditions are expected mabye slightly warmer than normal particuly around May - July period but hopefully no renewal of the El-nino.
No sign of a La-Nina I'm afraid to say and looks like we will be without luck again this year 2007 about having one at this point in time, the most likely secario the Pacific will continue too cool until end of the year & stablise to right on Nuetral from October - December but alot can happen between now and then but if I were a betting man I would put no money on a La-Nina this year.

John.
Posted by: Raindammit

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 09/01/2007 19:16

I agree about hedging your bets on La-Nina toward the end of this year! The long term forecasting for El-Nino/La-Nina leaves a lot to be desired to say the least, with it being more of a 'now cast' rather than a forecast. Predictions seem to reflect what is currently happening, ie, the eastern pacific is cooling slightly so we are told 'El-Nino is breaking down' but if it warmed again in the next few weeks it would be 'El-Nino is strengthening' beyond that, no-one seems to be able to say with any sort of certainty say what the long term situation will be.

Looking at the latest ENSO outlook (which will be updated tomorrow) 7 out of 11 models are going for Neutral conditions by May, and 5 out of the 7 long term models are going for Neutral conditions by August.

:cheers:
Posted by: AussieMark79

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 09/01/2007 20:16

there may be cool subsurface anomalites now but they are not really significant
compare that to this time in 1998

El Nino was in full flight but very cool subsurface temperatures were starting to appear this would later give birth to the 1998-2001 La Nina event

January 1998

January 2007

The cool we have now is nowhere near the intense cool we had in 1998

same as its not like the 1995 event

Decebmber 1994
April 1995
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 09/01/2007 20:25

Yeah that current cool patch sure looks nice. Last time i saw one that good was probably early 2003. Sure is a good sign as it points towards the weak la-nina direction and the chances of an el nino restrengthening at this time of year are low but we also have to take into note that this current el nino developed in September which is unusual so anything could happen at any time of the year if u ask me. I was expecting it to weaken around June at least so im grateful to see it happening now, lets just hope she continues.
Posted by: Squid

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 09/01/2007 21:21

thanks for the info john
Posted by: AussieMark79

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 09/01/2007 21:42

there was a cool patch last year

January 2006
Posted by: Johnoo

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 09/01/2007 22:53

Quote:
Originally posted by AussieMark79:
there may be cool subsurface anomalites now but they are not really significant
compare that to this time in 1998

El Nino was in full flight but very cool subsurface temperatures were starting to appear this would later give birth to the 1998-2001 La Nina event

January 1998

January 2007

The cool we have now is nowhere near the intense cool we had in 1998

same as its not like the 1995 event

Decebmber 1994
April 1995
Looking at those maps of previous subsurface temps in previous weakening El-ninos we can see the 1997 event was very strong and equally as strong was the sub-surface cold water which was huge and much cooler than normal which expanded east to the South American coast & to the surface and we all know what happend (The La-nina of 1998-2000. As you can see the 1994-95 event the sub surface cold patch wasn't too large or strong at first either but later that year and 1996 there was a La-nina so as you can see it doesn't have to be a very strong El Nino to rebound and end up having a La-nina we can take heart from this that the moderate 94-95 El nino that it is possible that we can eventually end up having a La-Nina in the next 18 months I doubt it will happen this year but it is quite possible for 2008.


John.
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 10/01/2007 03:33

We need that ice shelf to drift to the coast of Sth America. laugh
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 10/01/2007 15:08

You can see on the January 2006 map that aussiemark posted the biggest problem there was that warm patch in the western pacific, which hogs all the activity from the east pacific and australia. But this current cold patch is taking advantage of the entire length of the pacific which is good to see:



Latest ENSO Wrap-up http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/


Quote:
Summary: El Niño showing signs of weakening

All the main ENSO indicators show that the El Niño event has begun to weaken. This bodes well for a switch towards wetter conditions across Australia sometime in the late summer or autumn. The timing of the weakening also fits in well with that observed during previous events, although it is still possible for there to be renewed strengthening of the El Niño event for a month or two before it finally dissipates.

Since late November, near equatorial sea-surface temperatures have cooled by about 0.1 to 0.4°C, cooler-than-normal sub-surface water has extended well into the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, with significant weakening of warm anomalies occurring as a result, and the Trade Winds have been stronger than normal across the western and central Pacific. Furthermore, monthly SOI values were neutral for both November and December and central Pacific cloudiness has been near to or slightly below average for almost a month.

However, a moderate to strong Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), with an associated westerly wind burst, is currently affecting the area between northern Australia and Indonesia. If the MJO maintains its intensity as it propagates into the western Pacific, a fall in the SOI, a decrease in the Trade Wind strength and an increase in cloudiness may occur as a result. This may cause temporary strengthening of the El Niño event, but given the recent trends and the predictions from computer models, neutral ENSO conditions are expected to return during the southern autumn.
Ill be putting my bets on widespread heavy rainfall to occur in east NSW and QLD (not so much VIC) in late January/early Feb. Some memorable events in that time frame include the 2001 late Jan/early Feb NSW/QLD floods, 2002 late jan/early feb E NSW heavy rain, feb 2003 heavy rain in E NSW, late Jan 2004 NSW/QLD storms and late jan/early feb 2005 severe storms. Theres a better chance one of these patterns may repeat itself in this period if all goes to plan as you can see something has happend almost every year (apart from 2006).
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 10/01/2007 15:39

I agree with everything you say Bokkey. It also appears a rossby wave is affecting the area just east of PNG. Effectively (hopefully) blocking the westerlies being borne out of the current MJO. History points to heavy rains ahead. The only downer is that after the 2001 event Queensland although wetter ,wasn't exactly saturated!

Victoria will most likely see their rainfall and an associated "cold winter" in the middle of the year.
Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 10/01/2007 15:55

It is interesting to note that the nex WZ Beta web-site includes "long range" forecasting, which provides a 28-day forecast for selected areas of Australia. The following quote is the text of the Sth East Qld forecast:
"Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern appears to be establishing a more stable pattern with 4 waves now predominating. However at present there are 3 main troughs currently located in the longitudes of the western Australia, just approaching South America and near South Africa. The fourth trough is near the Date Line. Consequently the highs and lows will continue to move in a more regular fashion over the next several weeks.
Summary:
Over eastern and southern Australia the major summertime cold front events likely to bring more widely spread rain are expected about 24-27 January, and 07-08 February. Events about 10-12 January, 19 January, 29-30 January and 18 February are likely to be limited to the more southern regions. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 01-04 January, 05-07 January, 25-27 January and 17-18 February.
Over Western Australia the strongest summertime cold fronts should occur about 08-09 January, 22-23 January and 05-06 February. Lesser events are likely about 14-15 January, 27 January, 30-31 January and 12 February. Rain events moving in from the north are possible about 03-04 January, 22-23 January and 15-16 February."

Perhaps the weakening of the el nino may have a positive effect on the predicted rain events 25-27 January and 17-18 February (predicted as originating in the tropics and moving south).
As mentioned by bokkey and runoff, there is a history of heavy rainfall patterns coinciding with the breakdown of el nino, and the dates forecast for rainfall events seem to be consistent with such a pattern.
Posted by: Squid

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 11/01/2007 07:29

I foud this interesting a few weeks ago it was all blue in the coral sea now it is yellow very interesting to see how much the coral sea has warmed recently


http://beta.weatherzone.com.au/climate/indicator_sst.jsp?c=ssta
Posted by: Rain Shadow (Fossy)

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 11/01/2007 09:12

Saw on the news the other night that the sea was very cool on Sydney beaches. Is that an isolated event or something to do with el nino dying? Please excuse my total ignorance guys.
Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 11/01/2007 11:16

During el nino events, the eastern Australian coastal waters (and that would include Sydney beaches) usually are cooler than average into the summer. If el nino is weakening, the sea temperatures there may warm to around average before too long.
Posted by: Rain Shadow (Fossy)

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 11/01/2007 12:43

Thanks for that Rainy Night. Oh well I should do some more research on pacific warming and cooling. My knowledge is very limited to the SOI which I look at now and then.

When I lived in England I noticed that although it was very very cold, the atlantic ocean was always warm, so I guess it has the same affect there on weather as it does here, only the other way around.
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 11/01/2007 12:50

The upper air is a lot cooler at lower levels above the UK. As is the lower air. Hence the feed off the warm waters falls as snow. I don't believe Elnino has much if any effect on that part of the world.
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 11/01/2007 13:26

Sydneys water temps have nothing to do with el nino, its the NE'lys causing upwellings and something called Ekman shift. Theres a thread regarding that in the General weather section.

ps: squid, that does look interesting. Coral sea has exploded in terms of SSTs in the last couple of days. a low or cyclone cant be far away, same with some rain activity for the eastern parts of the country coinciding with that.
Posted by: adon

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 11/01/2007 13:48

Geez coaral has warmed up That would have to have somthing to do with those good trades of late. Just hope that the warmer SST come down the coast a bit before a low/cyclone develops so that any rain might come into SE Qld and hopefully back into the inland.
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 11/01/2007 14:02

I noticed that rossby wave that runoff mentioned a few posts ago is having an effect in absorbing those westerlies originating from the MJO, the trade winds are also starting to increase from the eastern pacific as well. The only question is has the MJO stopped doing its job in the western pacific in terms of the WWBs. If it has, we're looking good for now and i wouldnt rule out a weak lanina by March/april given the current trend continues. But even if we did get a lanina by then theres no guarantee we'll see any drought-breaking rain or any rain for that matter seeing that ENSO is hardly an indicator for our climate nowadays.
Posted by: Johnoo

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 11/01/2007 14:42

I would be suprised if we get any La nina's this year Bokkey but would love mother nature to prove me wrong.
I hope the warming up of the coral sea pays off soon pity the Eastern Indian ocean is cooling down just as rapidily I guess i'm not suprised :rolleyes: too much to ask for both oceans/seas to be warm at the same time nowadays.

John.
Posted by: BD (Bucketing Down)

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 11/01/2007 17:14

MJO has stagnated and weakened over eastern tropical Australia, though from Sat pic it seems like it still extends back over NE WA and NT mainly causing an almost broken monsoon trough in some areas.
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 13/01/2007 15:23

trade winds are winning so far smile . the only westerly wind along the equator is west of and near 130E, while the stronger easterlies (in the range of 10-25kts) prevail east of and near 180E. The cross equatorial flow is keeping those danger winds to the south where they cant cause any problems.

Looking at that spider web graph now it seems the MJO has re-strengthened again.. hope it breaks down before reaching phases 7 and 8.
Posted by: P.K.

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 14/01/2007 10:55

Quote:
Originally posted by runoff:
The upper air is a lot cooler at lower levels above the UK. As is the lower air. Hence the feed off the warm waters falls as snow. I don't believe Elnino has much if any effect on that part of the world.
Just had a quick look at the 500hPa and 850hPa charts on here and yes that looks to be true, as you would expect really given a difference of 25 or so degrees of latitude. The 584DM line is covering all of Australia at the moment with 500hPa temps up to between 0 and -2C in southern Aus. That is pretty warm for that high up! At midday on the 10th August 2003 (When the UK record of 38.1C was set) the 500hPa temps were around -10C with the a 1000-500hPa thickness around 580DM and a 850hPa temp just over 20C. Reanalysis Image here Not sure about comparing winters, we can get 850hPa temps down to maybe a little lower than -10C around Scotland with 500hPa temps down past -40C (Allowing polar lows to form). Not got a source to easily compare with Aus.

Quote:
Originally posted by Bokkey:
Sydneys water temps have nothing to do with el nino, its the NE'lys causing upwellings and something called Ekman shift. Theres a thread regarding that in the General weather section.
There is more on Ekman Transport here .
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 14/01/2007 12:55

Thanx for that P.K but now im confused. That article talks about the ekman transport and the winds are "away" from the coast, whereas here they are onshore. Maybe its got something to do with the northern and southern hemisphere differences with the coriolis effect especially etc. Because its understandable that winds blowing away from the coast would push those warmer waters away and allow the upwelling, but i dont get how onshore winds can do that confused
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 15/01/2007 18:42

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/OutlookMessage/index.html FYI...
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 15/01/2007 18:43

some POAMA runs have jumped dramatically over the last couple of days and are progging the pacific to undergo cooling as early as late this month and one or two of them keep on the -0.5C line right through autumn. Hopefully the other runs fall in line
Posted by: Johnoo

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 15/01/2007 22:11

Hiya Bokkey. Was wondering do you have a link to this?
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 16/01/2007 17:40

john: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/coupled_model/poama.shtml

heres the latest subsurface map from the bom:



atm just worried about that new WWB winding up in the west that could spark a new kelvin wave and re-strengthening of the elnino. The cold patch looks reasonable any how..
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 17/01/2007 00:38

Bokkey I believe any wwb now will have little effect on sst's with such a large cold pool in play on the thermocline.
Posted by: Squid

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 17/01/2007 07:57

what is the WWB?
Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 17/01/2007 08:32

Squid, WWB means "westerly wind burst". When those happen out in the Pacific, in late summer and autumn anyway, they play a part in the development of el nino events.
I also think that any WWB at the present time is probably unlikely to have much effect.
Posted by: Squid

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 17/01/2007 08:42

thanks for explaining that for me Rainy Night and i agree with you I would say to little too late as far as a renewed El Nino is concerned.
Posted by: AussieMark79

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 17/01/2007 09:44

El Nino has started to weaken even more the anomality of Nino 3.4 this week was 0.83C. Nino 3.4 cooled by 0.09C this week

the 13 week data set is
Quote:
2006101620061022 0.87
2006102320061029 0.97
2006103020061105 0.91
2006110620061112 1.09
2006111320061119 1.28
2006112020061126 1.31
2006112720061203 1.25
2006120420061210 1.31
2006121120061217 1.17
2006121820061224 1.14
2006122520061231 1.06
2007010120070107 0.92
2007010820070114 0.83
thats a 13 week average of +1.09C
Posted by: Squid

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 17/01/2007 10:06

good keep it going laugh laugh
Posted by: P.K.

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 17/01/2007 11:16

As Mark says the Nino 3.4 SSTAs are down yet again this week. More significantly the three month Nino 3.4 anomaly average has dropped this week for the first time since the cool neutral period in early 2006 peaked.
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 17/01/2007 13:15

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html Note the warming of the nth coral sea. Things are looking up I feel.
Posted by: Raindammit

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 17/01/2007 13:25

Maybe this thread will live up to its name afterall runoff! wink I hope its a strong one though!!
Posted by: KevD

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 17/01/2007 13:35

Interesting to see that the current MJO seems to have died a death - currently not in any determinable phase - so I wonder if:

1: It will not run through phases 7-8 and help the decline in the El Nino
2: Start again and come back through Oz a lot earlier than first thought

Will be interesting to watch in the next few days to see what it does smile
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 17/01/2007 15:49

Quote:
Originally posted by raindammit:
Maybe this thread will live up to its name afterall runoff! wink I hope its a strong one though!!
I didn't say what year laugh
Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 17/01/2007 16:20

The BoM in this week's tropical climate note seemed to be saying that the current MJO event should be finished in the next week or so, and due to its length the next event might be delayed a little until towards mid-February. But since that MJO event seems to already died, it appears all may be on cue for the next active phase to affect us a little earlier, around the beginning of Februry. I don't know what effect that may have on el nino, but since it seems to be on its way out anyway, all the news may be good.
Quote from tropical climate note:
"This current active burst period of tropical weather in Australia's north should generally wane over the next week or so. If the recent 30-day periodicity of the MJO were to persist, the next active phase over northern Australia would begin around early February. However this current burst, with its very pronounced convective signature over the maritime continent, remains further west than recent previous events, allowing for the possibility that the next event may be delayed, perhaps closer to the middle of February."
Posted by: Raindammit

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 17/01/2007 18:49

SOI has plummeted sharply frown
Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 17/01/2007 18:59

The pressure is still quite low at Darwin, the reason for decline in the daily SOI being falling pressures in Tahiti, seems to be a low pressure system over there - hopefully, it moves away soon so the effect may be short-lived - the monthly SOI hasn't fallen much and the daily readings are not really useful indicators generally.
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 17/01/2007 19:31

havent seen this much cloud over the country for so many consecutive days in years! great stuff. The only downside to this is there isnt much rain under it all.. mainly along the NSW ranges where the storms are occuring and the typical monsoonal stuff. Some areas in WA and inland NT have had over 400mm in the last week going by the rain maps. But at least it shows that there is still any glimmer of hope out there for us and also a blanket put onto the whole global warming -> less cloud cover -> less rain for aust. in the short-term anyway. Historically widespread cloud cover is a sign of moisture and drought breaking rains in a not too distant future.. lets just hope that isnt a flop too!
Posted by: AussieMark79

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 17/01/2007 19:52

30 day SOI is only -3.93
90 day SOI is only -5.23

so its not that bad smile
Posted by: Johnoo

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 17/01/2007 22:17

Quote:
Originally posted by John 30:
Hiya Bokkey. Was wondering do you have a link to this?
Cheers thanks Bokkey for the charts of the subsuface water smile

John.
Posted by: Mick10

Re: I am backing another weak La nina - 17/01/2007 22:55

i think this thread has really run its course and its outdated. its obvious we arent heading into a weak la nina.
it has a been an intresting topic to say the least, an unfortunate move into a strong elnino. so i will close this thread,
please feel free to create a new thread on the 2007 prospects in the Pacific.
thanks Mick